URL: http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi
Forum: DCForumID2
Thread Number: 7597
[ Go back to previous page ]
Original Message
"S22 Confessionals Thread"
Posted by dabo on 02-17-11 at 01:38 AM
For all things confessionals.

But first, notes on main titles (will they change a lot as the series airs?)...

episode 1

Ometepe

Ashley swimming (future challenge?)
Grant
Kristina IC1
Pillip IC1
Natalie
Matthew IC1: future challenge
Francesca
Andrea future challenge

Zapatera

Mike
Stephanie
Ralph
Julie future challenge
Krista
Steve future challenge
Sarita swimming (future challenge?)
David

Rob and Russell not named.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"Confessionals Tally #1"
Posted by dabo on 02-17-11 at 01:43 AM
Andrea 1

Ashley 1

David 1

Francesca 6 (voted out)

Grant 0

Julie 0

Krista 0

Kristina 5

Matt 2

Mike 3

Natalie 1

Phillip 4

Ralph "Rooster" 2

Rob 1

Russell 3

Sarita 0

Stephanie 2

Steve 0

No trends yet, of course, but the drama of the Ometepe first vote was most of the story. Fixation on Rob and Russell seems to be established as a main longterm theme.

"Ep. 2 Confessional Count"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 03-03-11 at 09:02 AM
Here is the confessional count for Ep. 2:

Matt - 1

Francesca - 1

Boston Rob - 7

David - 3

Andrea - 2

Steve - 4

Stephanie - 2

Julie - 3

RussHell - 3

Ralph - 2

Mike - 1


"week 2"
Posted by dabo on 02-25-11 at 11:44 AM
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-11 AT 01:16 PM (EST)

The main titles sequence this time was rearranged, and not simply to insert Rob and Russell and drop Francesca to RI.

1 to 2

Ometepe

Ashley >>> Rob
Grant >>> Ashley
Kristina >>> Kristina
Pillip >>> Phillip
Natalie >>> Matthew
Matthew >>> Natalie
Francesca >>> Grant
Andrea >>> Andrea

Zapatera

Russell >>> Russell
Mike >>> Ralph
Stephanie >>> Stephanie
Ralph >>> David
Julie >>> Julie
Krista >>> Krista
Steve >>> Steve
Sarita >>> Sarita
David >>> Mike

Redemption Island

no one >>> Francesca

In confessionals the repeater DAWs get the most action, as the story in Ometepe becomes don't upset Rob and the story in Zapatera becomes do upset Russell. Kristina was virtually invisible this time except as related to the HII; Julie, Krista, Sarita and Steve remain invisible.

Andrea 1, 2 | 3

Ashley 1, 0 | 1

David 1, 0 | 1

Francesca 6 (voted out), 2 | 8

Grant 0, 1 | 1

Julie 0, 0 | 0

Krista 0, 0 | 0

Kristina 5, 2 | 7

Matt 2, 1 (voted out) | 3

Mike 3, 1 | 4

Natalie 1, 1 | 2

Phillip 4, 1 | 5

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3 | 5

Rob 1, 7 | 8

Russell 3, 5 | 8

Sarita 0, 0 | 0

Stephanie 2, 0 | 2

Steve 0, 0 | 0

"RE: week 2"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 02-25-11 at 12:53 PM
Dabo,

I appreciate you doing this thread, but I'm having a hard time following your last post.

Francesca and Kristina spiked in Episode 1 and Kristina was voted out.

In Episode 2, we saw a big spike in confessionals from both Rob and Russell while Julie, Krista, Sarita and Steve remain invisible


"RE: week 2"
Posted by dabo on 02-25-11 at 01:13 PM
These just count confessionals, not statements made in conversation with other players. The first number after the name is that player's confessionals count in ep 1, the second in ep 2, the last number after the name is the total. Voted out is noted because it alters the player's position in the game without elimination.

I'll edit in commas as episode breaks, long term it may be better that way anyway.

"Narrators?"
Posted by Krautboy on 02-25-11 at 01:16 PM
Narrators typically are safe until the merge...are Rob and Russell the narrators for this season?



Krautboy

"RE: Narrators?"
Posted by dabo on 02-25-11 at 01:21 PM
I don't think so as game strategy in both tribes revolves around Rob and Russell. Maybe they are serving both functions, though. Hopefully Corvis will come along and do some confessionals analysis like in the old days, breaking the confessionals into types.
"RE: Narrators?"
Posted by Corvis on 02-25-11 at 05:38 PM
I am working on it. Ep 1 is figured out - now I have to do ep 2. Hopefully this weekend. Thanks for getting things started!
"In addition"
Posted by dabo on 02-25-11 at 01:46 PM
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-11 AT 01:48 PM (EST)

In my mind Rob and Russell occupy a status in this game, at least in these early rounds, of Survivor Emeritus, the experienced players thrown in with the inexperienced players.

In Ometepe Rob has used his experience to rise to the leadership position and successfully fended off an early challenge to his authority. He has not lost sight of his individual game, however, and didn't maintain his solid six, reverting instead to Marquesas Robfodder hunting down rivals.

In Zapatera Russell has reverted to his bully game from season 19 and probably would have been better off had he taken his inexperienced crew to the first Tribal, he's singularly on his individual game. No leader has emerged yet in Zapatera. This is the first time he's played with people who know his game in advance, despite being inexperienced, and he has a huge blindspot because he hasn't factored that into his game this time.

"RE: week 2"
Posted by Flowerpower on 02-28-11 at 11:11 AM
Looking forward to Corvis' thoughts on this...

What does this tell us, if anything...

Trying to compartmentalize:

Those dropping under the radar to having at least one confessional in the first episode to 0 this week....(possible hidden boots?):

Ashley, David, Stephanie.

Those dropping from more confessionals in ep 1 to less, (?safe for now?):

Kristina, Mike, Phillip

Consistantly flying under the radar....INVISIBLE (invisible boot or safe?):

Julie, Krista, Sarita, Steve

Those with a subtle increase in confessionals from week 1 to 2:

Andrea, Rooster

Those with at least a 2 confessional spike(possible boot candidate):

RussHell, and Rob

Could we deduce that our boot candidates are: Stephanie, Andrea, Rooster, RussHell, and Rob?

If we throw out Andrea and Rob because the time stamps lean toward a Zap loss at the IC, then we are left with: Stephanie, Rooster, RussHell....

Definitely want to hear what Corvis has to say!



"RE: week 2"
Posted by CTgirl on 02-28-11 at 03:27 PM
Once again, deductive reasoning has brought us back to Rooster, Russell and Stephanie. Now to figure out who's misdirection and who gets booted!

"Confessional Analysis, eps 1-2"
Posted by Corvis on 02-28-11 at 09:58 PM
So here we go. D confessionals are ones about tribal dynamics, T confessionals are ones about storytelling. Episode 1 has a pretty even mix of Ts and Ds. Episode 2 is full of Ds as it was all about strategy. Not much character or story development there outside of the game play.

Rob – 1D + 1T/11D = 1T/12D
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D = 3T/5D
Kristina – 1T/5D +2D = 1T/7D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T = 4T/2D
Matt – 2T + 1D = 2T/1D
Andrea – 1T + 2D = 1T/2D
Natalie – 1T + 1T = 2T
Ashley – 1T + 0 = 1T
Grant – 0 + 1T = 1T

Russell – 3T + 1T/4D = 4T/4D
Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D = 4T/1D
Mike – 2T/1D + 1D = 2T/2D
Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 = 2T/1D
David – 1D + 0 = 1D
Sarita – 0 + 0
Julie – 0 + 0
Krista – 0 + 0
Steve – 0 + 0

The biggest deal is how many people don't have any confessionals yet. Sarita, Julie, Krista and Steve have all been completely ignored. I can't imagine any of them winning just as Yve, Benry and Kelly P. didn't win when they started out with zero confessionals in the first two eps of last season. (And actually Benry and Kelly P last four eps without confessionals - maybe longer.) Only Benry went far last season, so I wouldn't be surprised to see at least half of the zero group to be gone early.

In the past, Survivors who got a lot of Ds went home sooner than those who got a lot of Ts. However, in the last few years, I don't think that's been the case as often. I think people with a lot of Ds can last a long time. Still getting Ts does suggest longevity as the narrators and the journey players get these types of confessionals. It's hard to make any predictions after only 2 eps, but Phillip and Natalie look good on Ometepe. And over at Zappy, Ralph looks good. Of course with Redemption Island, everything is thrown out of whack. A person who gets a lot of Ts can get voted out and last a long time at RI. Particularly if someone is on a personal journey.

Speaking of Redemption Island, I think Matt will outlast Francesca just looking at confessionals. Matt had a confessional about his faith being everything to him. Contrast that with Francesca's confessional about being happy to just be on Survivor. Then Francesca's confessionals are all about the conflict that got her booted. Even after she got to RI, she's still talking about Phillip. Matt, on the other hand, is talking about Rob - how great it is to have him and how impressive he is with how he knows what people want to hear. I would be really surprised if Matt didn't survive RI long enough to see Rob again.

I am surprised we're not hearing more from Dave. The only thing he has said so far is the Russell is dangerous and wants the blood on his hands. While he recognizes how dangerous Russell is, he also has to realize that someone who is willing to get the blood on their hands is a good person to hide behind. I think if we start seeing Dave get a bunch of confessionals in the next few eps, watch him to go far.

Three people got important opening series confessionals: Matt, Ralph, and Mike. One of them is going far. I would pick Mike.

It's hard to say much more after only 2 episodes.

"RE: Confessional Analysis, eps 1-2"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-01-11 at 08:45 AM

You know, when I was tallying confessionals and than with your comment regarding the people with D's vs. T's. The one huge person with the greatest spike of D's and who raised the most red flags for me was Boston Rob. Geez, I sure hope the Ometepe's don't lose the challenge, or Rob could be sent packing....the WOMEN scorned could get some just desserts...yikes.


"RE: Confessional Analysis, eps 1-2"
Posted by Corvis on 03-01-11 at 10:53 AM
Why are we so sure Russell's tribe goes to TC? Because they're planning a big blindside over there? What if Russell hears that his tribe is considering throwing the challenge, which then sparks the conversation between Stephanie and him about the blindside? Then they go to the IC and Zappy doesn't throw it and instead wins.

Maybe we should be looking at Ometepe!

"Why Zapatera?"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-01-11 at 11:00 AM
So far the only evidence whatsoever that may hint at a Zapatera loss is this.

These are the only press images posted at all for this episode...sure hope there are more.




"RE: Why Zapatera?"
Posted by Corvis on 03-01-11 at 11:49 AM
I want to make sure I get this. The idea is that we have a picture that suggests one of the cameras goes to Zappy beach after the challenge. Is that right?

Wouldn't they go back to both beaches? They focus more on the tribe that's going to TC, but sometimes they do show the winning tribe too. Particularly now since a reward is tied to the IC.

"RE: Why Zapatera?"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-01-11 at 01:12 PM
Those 2 lone press images, and the promos is all we have....



"RE: Why Zapatera?"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 03-01-11 at 01:47 PM
Yep, they sure aren't giving us much to work with -- I'm still hoping CBS will post press photos today or tomorrow, which might help.

Corvis, I agree we shouldn't rule out Rob's tribe going to TC just yet. I think that Andrea is the misdirection there, and most likely Krista would be the boot since Rob & Co seem to be scared about her being smart and finding idols. Plus they're not going to want to give Andrea and Krista a chance to pair up. (Some hints of that in the Insider Clips)

Re Zap possibly going to TC: In addition to the beach shot, one more thing that could point to a win for Rob's tribe is that it does seems like the O women are much better athletes and would do well on the water wheel. Sarita, for example, didn't do well in the first water challenge and Stephanie seems like a princess type. But on the other hand, last season on this challenge it really came down to the last part (tile breaking), and we don't even know what that end part will be yet, so hard to make a call.

"RE: Why Zapatera?"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 03-01-11 at 02:13 PM
Evidence for a Zapatera loss ...

1. Episode title ... Keep Hope Alive ... RussHELL wears this as a tatoo on his arm!!! This tells me that this episode is all about RussHell, or could we use the term RussHell-centric.

2. Vidcaps ... back at the Zap camp we see the six anti-RussHell group with their hands in the middle making a pact. For me, this would have to be BEFORE the challenge. Perhaps it is here, where they consider throwing the challenge in order to boot RussHell.

We also see and hear Stephanie tell Russhell it's going to be the "biggest blindside ever!!" This vidcap along with the title of the episode is more telling for me. For RussHell and Stephanie to be talking about a blindside, it must be because this vidcap takes place after the Challenge. I am willing to bet that RussHell will devise a scheme to make the other six think that he does indeed have the Immunity idol. They already know that he has found the clue and they know that this is his game. Will Rooster inform his alliance that he indeed has it, or will he keep it to himself? Time will tell. It doesn't matter here because typically we see more of the losing tribe after the challenge. Therefore, I can deduce that it is the Vapateras who are going to Tribal Council.

3. The Clues tell us that one tribe considers perhaps doing the unthinkable and we presume that it is the Zapatera tribe considering throwing a challenge to get RussHell voted out. The challenge is the water wheel challenge and it really is up in the air as to who wins it.

"RE: Why Zapatera?"
Posted by dabo on 03-01-11 at 03:13 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-11 AT 09:04 AM (EST)

"Keep Hope Alive" is certainly Russcentric, though I can see how it could be misdirection should Zapatera win immunity again. The Anti-Russ group in Zapatera genuinely cannot do anything about Russ until they have to go to Tribal, as long as they don't have to Russ has them scrambling.

The biggest blindside ever talk, though, seems strongly to point to a Zapatera Tribal, there is just no reason for it otherwise.

"RE: S22 Confessionals Thread"
Posted by dabo on 03-03-11 at 04:35 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-04-11 AT 10:51 AM (EST)

oops... Confessionals Tally #3

Truncated main titles this time. Rob remains the man at Ometepe, but with focus on Zapatera this time David and Steve are suddenly playing the game! Krista and Sarita remain silent in confessionals though Sarita certainly had some things to say at Tribal.

Andrea 1, 2, 2 | 5

Ashley 1, 0, 0 | 1

David 1, 0, 3 | 4

Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

Grant 0, 1, 0 | 1

Julie 0, 0, 3 | 3

Krista 0, 0, 0 | 0

Kristina 5, 2, 0 | 7

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1 | 4

Mike 3, 1, 1 | 5

Natalie 1, 1, 0 | 2

Phillip 4, 1, 0 | 5

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2 | 7

Rob 1, 7, 4 | 12

Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out) | 12

Sarita 0, 0 , 0| 0

Stephanie 2, 0, 2 | 4

Steve 0, 0, 4 | 4

A bit of a bummer this week as it seems there is a strong likelihood I will lose my CBS feed tomorrow unless I go buy a convertor box so I can pick up the newfangled broadcasts on antenna. I may have to rely on this computer to watch episodes the morning after, or sometime after. So I may not be able to continue to do these, or be timely about it, we'll see.

"RE: S22 Confessionals Thread"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-06-11 at 06:38 PM
Thanks so much for doing these, dabo! I love the confessionals! I also would love to hear what Corvis has to say as well...

So, for this week:

Those with a spike in confessionals:
David, Julie, Stephanie, and Steve....hmmmm, ALL from Camp Zap

Those with a drop in confessionals:

Grant, Kristina, Natalie, Phillip, Rooster, Rob

Those flying straight, no dip or rise in confessionals: Andrea, Ashley, Mike, with Krista and Sarita flying totally UTR.

So, who is at risk:

If it is not a SURPRISE boot then it will most likely be Stephanie. If it is a surprise boot it would be most likely Phillip or Kristina.

A shocking boot would be Krista or Sarita with NO confessionals...

Not really a very scientific method...


"RE: S22 Confessionals Thread"
Posted by Corvis on 03-06-11 at 07:54 PM
Here's where we are after three eps.

Rob – 1D + 1T/11D + 2T/4D = 3T/16D
Kristina – 1T/5D +2D + 0 = 1T/7D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T + 0 = 4T/2D
(RI) Matt – 2T + 1D + 2T = 4T/1D
Andrea – 1T + 2D + 1T/1D = 2T/3D
Natalie – 1T + 1T + 0 = 2T
Ashley – 1T + 0 + 0 = 1T
Grant – 0 + 1T + 0 = 1T

LOST DUEL:
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D + 1D = 3T/6D


(RI) Russell – 3T + 1T/4D +2T/2D = 6T/6D
Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D + 1T/1D = 5T/2D
Mike – 2T/1D + 1D + 1T = 3T/2D
Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D = 3T/2D
David – 1D + 0 + 2T/1D = 2T/2D
Steve – 0 + 0 + 2T/2D = 2T/2D
Julie – 0 + 0 +2T/1D = 2T/1D
Sarita – 0 + 0 + 0
Krista – 0 + 0 + 0

The only thing that really jumps out at me is that Steve and Julie are now on the board and Dave had a good episode. I really wonder if Steve and/or Julie aren't spiking as the beginning of a short term story for them. I feel better about David's chances as we heard from him in episode 1. Sarita and Krista are still non-entities.

Ometepe really disappeared last episode with Grant, Natalie, Ashley, Kristina and Phillip getting zero confessionals. Of course, that's because Rob is confessional king over there. I mean, I like Rob and all, but it sure would be nice to hear what other people are thinking. Using the old method of CA where lots of Ds means you're in danger, look for Kristina to get whacked next. Or even Andrea.

I don't think Phillip is going soon. I am really beginning to think he has legs.

That's all I got for now.

"RE: S22 Confessionals Thread"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-06-11 at 08:35 PM
Thanks so much, Corvis. I really appreciate you doing this. It's very reasonable...I am thinking either Andrea or Kristina at Ometepe as well. It's going to be interesting to see the dynamics at Zap now that RussHell is gone...
"RE: S22 Confessionals Thread"
Posted by dabo on 03-07-11 at 12:14 PM
I think you are right about Phillip. As long as Rob is in charge at Ometepe calling the shots, he targets the players he thinks are too dangerous to him as players, and solidifies his position by carrying those who need him. Phillip isn't viewed as having good game and he does need Rob at the moment.

The danger is that Rob may lose control if they lose too much of the time, be over-ruled, in which case a weaker contributor to the tribe may be bounced over his wishes even while Rob is kept.

"RE: S22 Confessionals Thread"
Posted by Corvis on 03-07-11 at 12:40 PM
That makes a lot of sense, dabo.
"Week 4"
Posted by dabo on 03-10-11 at 03:29 PM
Confessionals tally #4

Truncated main titles again this week, at least at the CBS site (I have to assume it was the same on broadcast). Great week, and there are no more invisibles! Krista and Sarita are barely visible now. Andrea and Steve went missing this week in confessionals. It was a pretty even spread at Zapatera. At Ometepe Rob continues to get the lion's share of the facetime, and those long confessional edits that Corvis will have to break down. Phillip gets a big bump this week.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0 | 5

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1 | 2

David 1, 0, 3, 2 | 6

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2 | 3

Julie 0, 0, 3, 2 | 5

Krista 0, 0, 0, 1 | 1

Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out) | 9

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2 | 6

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2 | 7

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2 | 4

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5 | 11

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2 | 9

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6 | 18

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1 | 1

Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1 | 5

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0 | 4

* * *

Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14

Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

"RE: Week 4"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-15-11 at 01:31 PM
Sarita and Krista are finally on the board. Steve and Andrea go under the radar. Who's in trouble at Zapatera: Krista, Stephanie, Steve?, Sarita? Any insight into D's and T's?
"RE: Week 4"
Posted by dabo on 03-15-11 at 02:35 PM
I strongly suspect Krista is in big trouble this week. She was almost absolutely invisible up until her one confessional, a playing piece on the boardgame. Sarita had popped up a bit outside of confessionals and then really took charge at Tribal before she even had a confessional, so she may have more story coming up.
"Confessional Analysis, ep 4"
Posted by Corvis on 03-16-11 at 09:21 AM
Here's what we have after 4 weeks. Sorry it took so long - busy week!

Rob – 1D + 1T/11D + 2T/4D + 2T/6D = 5T/22D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T + 0 + 2T/3D = 6T/5D
(RI) Kristina – 1T/5D +2D + 0 + 2D = 1T/9D
(RI) Matt – 2T + 1D + 2T + 2T = 6T/1D
Andrea – 1T + 2D + 1T/1D + 0 = 2T/3D
Natalie – 1T + 1T + 0 + 2D = 2T/2D
Ashley – 1T + 0 + 0 + 1D = 1T/1D
Grant – 0 + 1T + 0 +1D = 1T/1D

LOST DUEL:
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D + 1D = 3T/6D

Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/1D = 6T/3D
Mike – 2T/1D + 1D + 1T + 1t/1D= 4T/3D
David – 1D + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D = 3T/3D
Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 0 = 3T/2D
Julie – 0 + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D = 3T/2D
Steve – 0 + 0 + 2T/2D + 0 = 2T/2D
Sarita – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D = 1D
Krista – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D = 1D

LOST DUEL:
Russell – 3T + 1T/4D +2T/2D + 1T/1D = 7T/7D

Just a couple things. Last week, I said that I think Phillip has legs and this episode just reinforced that. I know others have mentioned it too this week. Phillip is really turning into a narrator of his own story this season. And everyone is talking about him. They're not saying good things, mind you, but they're talking about him. If he wasn't saying anything I'd say he was gone soon since he's the subject of so much conversation, but since he's getting the confessionals and we're hearing his point of view, I really believe he could go far.

Rob got one of the longest confessionals in the history of the show this week, I think. An entire segment was dedicated to him explaining how he maneuvered his tribe away from camp so he could find the idol. Normally, we'd get a confessional from Grant saying "Rob had some stomach issues and disappeared for a long time." Or something! But, no, it's all Rob all the time.

Over at Zappy, Krista finally spoke. Not necessarily a good sign for her. Of course, Stephanie disappeared and that sometimes can indicate a boot is coming next ep, too. So either one could easily go. No surprise there.

Sarita had one confessional and it was the kiss of death - getting rid of Russell will be her million dollar moment. Whoops! She'll never win.

David was shown sympathizing with Krista and Stephanie which lends credence to the idea that is floating around that he's the one who will waver in the alliance of six.

Rooster and Mike continue to narrate their tribe events. Both are safe for a while.

"RE: Confessional Analysis, ep 4"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-16-11 at 11:20 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-11 AT 11:23 AM (EST)

Thanks so much dabo and Corvis. I really find the confessionals to be a great piece to the boot puzzle for each week. And, they are fascinating for those that enjoy the editing of the show.

ETA: I also think Stephanie did have a confessional, seen after she and Krista were first shown on the beach....She was sitting on a rock, and said that "they were now stuck with all these goobers, and they weren't going to have any more fun..." or something to that effect.


"RE: Confessional Analysis, ep 4"
Posted by dabo on 03-17-11 at 00:50 AM
Correct. Stephanie's confessional segued seemlessly into Krista's confessional, look away at the wrong moment and you miss that there were two confessionals.
"Week 5"
Posted by dabo on 03-18-11 at 10:51 AM
Confessionals Tally #5

Truncated main title yet again. Something of tremendous import occured in this episode, this tally bears it out. I won't keep you in suspence...

Nothing happened at Redemption Island. Nothing. Except for the duel at the arena. No shelter, no fire, no rice, no bonding between the exiles, Matt and Kristina goose-egged in confessionals even. Bo-ring. So boring they didn't show anything at all from RI except the RI duel.

Hey, Probst, it's been five weeks! If it is just that horrible an idea that nothing happens there worth showing, don't ever do it again!

A smattering of confessionals popped up during the challenge segment. Natalie and Ralph are invisible this week. Ashley gets a bump at Ometepe, Julie gets a bump at Zapatera, Rob had another long section during the "football play" that could probably be segmented into 3 or 4 confessionals.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1 | 6

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3 | 5

David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1 | 7

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1 | 4

Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4 | 9

Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out) | 3

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0 | 6

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2 | 9

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0 | 4

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4 | 14

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0 | 9

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3 | 21

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 | 3

Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3 | 8

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2 | 6

* * *

Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9

Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14

Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

"RE: Week 5"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-19-11 at 01:58 PM
Once again, thanks so much for doing these, dabo! I am very eager to see the Analysis portion of the confessionals this week as well. For me, it seemed as Ralph stepped away from the action, which I think bodes well for him. Julie stepped in to the role of narrator that Mike also shares...Andrea made a bold move this week, and I think it could spell disaster for her, OR, she will make the end game...

Definitely, Ashley had a spike....could be the beginning of a story arc for her...Steve stepped back into the limelight as well. David is status quo, imo. Stephanie is picking up to, as is her story...

It is really hard to grasp the confessional counts for the "stars" of the show. Clearly, Rob is one, and Phillip is one, Rooster could be one, Russell was one.


"RE: Week 5"
Posted by Corvis on 03-20-11 at 05:59 PM
Thanks for catching the Stephanie confessional I missed last week. I have updated my numbers. Also, I thought I'd mention how I count confessionals as my numbers are not exactly the same as Dabo's numbers. Basically, I count a new confessional for someone if something happens in between the two confessionals. For instance, Rob could be talking about something, and then the go to Andrea and Grant talking about something, and then they go back to Rob talking in the same confessional. I count that as two confessionals because often for the T-D purposes, one of those fits with D and one fits with T. Just wanted to make that clear since the numbers are different.

So here we are:

Ometepe:

Rob – 1D + 1T/11D + 2T/4D + 2T/6D 4T/1D = 9T/23D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T + 0 + 2T/3D + 2T/3D = 8T/8D
(RI) Matt – 2T + 1D + 2T + 2T + 0 = 6T/1D
Andrea – 1T + 2D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D = 3T/4D
Ashley – 1T + 0 + 0 + 1D +1T/2D = 2T/3D
Natalie – 1T + 1T + 0 + 2D + 0 = 2T/2D
Grant – 0 + 1T + 0 +1D + 1T = 2T/1D

LOST DUEL:
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D + 1D = 3T/6D
Kristina – 1T/5D +2D + 0 + 2D + 0 = 1T/9D

Zapatera:

Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D + 1T/3D = 4T/6D
Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/1D + 0 = 6T/3D
Mike – 2T/1D + 1D + 1T + 1t/1D + 2D = 4T/5D
Julie – 0 + 0 +2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/3D = 4T/5D
David – 1D + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T = 4T/3D
Steve – 0 + 0 + 2T/2D + 0 + 1T/1D = 3T/3D
Sarita – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 1T/1D = 1T/2D
(RI) Krista – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 2D = 3D

LOST DUEL:
Russell – 3T + 1T/4D +2T/2D + 1T/1D = 7T/7D

So you know who has more confessionals on the Zappy tribe? Stephanie. I mean, it's only one more than than some of the others, but still. Mike had a D bump as did Julie. Which is surprising as I can't see a scenario where Mike or Julie gets booted. Sarita had a bit of a bump too considering that she only had one confessional in the four eps before this ep. Ralph disappeared which I find strange, but then I guess we had to give the others a chance to speak so we know who they are before they get booted.

Over at Ometepe, the most noticeable thing is Ashley and Andrea's bump, particularly Ashley as she had been pretty invisible up to that point. Natalie disappeared. Sometimes boots disappear before their boot ep, like Kristina did earlier. Sometimes they get a bump, like Krista did. Phillip is still a consistent narrator and I would be surprised if he goes. And of course, it's still the Rob show as he has waaaay more confessionals than everyone else.

I don't know how helpful that all is, but there ya go.

"week 6"
Posted by dabo on 03-24-11 at 02:52 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-11 AT 04:22 PM (EST)

Fun week. At Ometepe Rob seems to be doing all the thinking for Grant and Natalie, who get no confessionals (Nat's second consecutive week at 0). Andrea popped up briefly after the duel but then got to the sidelines. All the Zaps got their moments with the biggest bump going to Steve who gets a diplomatic edit. The anti-Russell Gang has now run out of targets and is shattering. The "loose cannons" Dave and Phillip are both thinking about teams but getting frustrated by little cooperation. Zap has fallen into the very bad habit of trying to brand one another.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1 | 7

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3 | 8

David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2 | 9

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0 | 4

Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1 | 10

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0, 3 | 9

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1 | 10

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0 | 4

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3 | 17

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1 | 10

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2 | 23

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1 | 4

Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3, 4 (voted out) | 12

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4 | 10

* * *

Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 5

Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9

Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14

Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

"RE: week 6"
Posted by dabo on 03-29-11 at 04:31 PM
Thought I'd take a look at these another way.

Ometepe
Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2 | 23
Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3 | 17
Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3 | 8
Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1 | 7
Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0 | 4
Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0 | 4

Zapatera
Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1 | 10
Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1 | 10
Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1 | 10
Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4 | 10
David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2 | 9
Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1 | 4

"RE: week 6"
Posted by Corvis on 03-29-11 at 07:55 PM
Ometepe:

Rob – 1D + 1T/11D + 2T/4D + 2T/6D + 4T/1D + 3T/1D= 9T/23D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T + 0 + 2T/3D + 2T/3D + 2T/1D= 10T/9D
(RI) Matt – 2T + 1D + 2T + 2T + 0 + 3T = 9T/1D
Ashley – 1T + 0 + 0 + 1D +1T/2D + 2T/1D = 4T/4D
Andrea – 1T + 2D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D = 3T/5D
Natalie – 1T + 1T + 0 + 2D + 0 + 0 = 2T/2D
Grant – 0 + 1T + 0 +1D + 1T + 0 = 2T/1D

LOST DUEL:
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D + 1D = 3T/6D
Kristina – 1T/5D +2D + 0 + 2D + 0 = 1T/9D

Zapatera:

(RI) Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D + 1T/3D + 1T/3D = 5T/9D
Steve – 0 + 0 + 2T/2D + 0 + 1T/1D + 3T/3D = 6T/6D
Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T = 7T/3D
Julie – 0 + 0 +2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/3D + 1T = 5T/5D
Mike – 2T/1D + 1D + 1T + 1t/1D + 2D + 1D = 4T/6D
David – 1D + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T + 2D = 4T/5D
Sarita – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 1T/1D + 1D = 1T/3D

LOST DUEL:
Russell – 3T + 1T/4D +2T/2D + 1T/1D = 7T/7D
Krista – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 2D + 3T = 3T/3D


Two things jumped out at me this week. One I mentioned in the vote thread. The most interesting thing is the confessional Matt didn't get. I was waiting for him to say, "Now that I have this Bible, I feel I can go all the way." Instead, he focused on how much he appreciated getting the Bible from Krista. Now, maybe he didn't say that so it wasn't there to use. But don't you think someone would have asked him "So with the Bible to inspire you, do you think you can make it to the end?" And what else would he say? "Nah, it doesn't mean anything to me..." - I don't think so! So I think they chose not to give us that comment because Matt's story is winding down. And Stephanie's story is about to go into high gear. Stephanie right now has more confessionals than anyone else at Zappy. I think Steph could beat Matt this week.

The other thing that interested me was Steve. He talked as much in this episode as he did in all of the eps combined. I don't think he's long for the game.

And that's the end of CA for this week. I will try to get it done earlier next week...

------------
So this seems like as good a place as any to make a rest of the game prediction. Here's what I see happening (not that this has to do just with CA.)

I think Sarita gets tossed this week because Zappy loses again and they finally realize David is right about strength is more important than loyalty.

Steph beats Matt at RI, beginning her arc on the island. Sarita shows up and is easily beat by Steph. And then Zappy loses again and they boot Steve, who they see as the next weakest player. Steph beats him too. They merge at 10 and the Zappies get picked off one by one, except they take out Phillip along the way too because he's so annoying.

The final four is Grant, Natalie, Rob, and Andrea. And then Stephenie comes back into the game. (That's how it's supposed to happen, right?) Rob, Andrea and Stephenie are the Final 3. Who wins? Going to be close vote.

That was fun.

"RE: week 6"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 03-29-11 at 09:59 PM
Corvis, I very much agree about Steve. His big spike speaks for him to be going soon. The only other fate I could see for him is that he is one to make it awhile on RI.

You may well be right about Stephanie, but I have not felt the Stephanie love, so for me it's wait and see. I think she's toast.

As to Matt, I think he has story.

>>> I was waiting for him to say, "Now that I have this Bible, I feel I can go all the way." Instead, he focused on how much he appreciated getting the Bible from Krista. Now, maybe he didn't say that so it wasn't there to use. But don't you think someone would have asked him "So with the Bible to inspire you, do you think you can make it to the end?" And what else would he say? "Nah, it doesn't mean anything to me..."

Well, perhaps they don't want to make him all about succeeding with God.

There was an important confessional from Krista. She said, it was God's will that she went and Matt stayed. For what purpose? To fall to a feisty big-mouthed waitress?

As you know, there are all sorts of Christian faiths. It may be that Matt is more involved in Fellowship than a Bible reader. He talks about a direct connection and he missed having a faith community. He never said that he wished he had a Bible, nor was it his luxury item. Clearly he valued the Bible, but he also valued the gift from another believer, perhaps more.

I think that Matt has already internalized what he needs for his faith. The book is just icing on the cake. They've shown plenty of Matt talking about winning through faith, and we'll probably see it again before the duel. I think the story for Matt will be, how does this strong faith help him when he gets back in with the backstabbing environment of Survivor? It's easy to play a pure game at RI.

I could see Matt being in the F3. I could see Grant there. I could see Rob. Maybe Andrea. I could even see Ashley or Philip brought there as goats. I don't see Stephanie there. No way she is going to beat Mike, Steve, Ralph, Grant, or some combination of the biggest challenge threats. She would have to win too many to get back in.

I do think that someone returned from RI will make F3, that will make Jeff oh so happy with the twist. It could be either the first returnee or the second.

We don't know when the second returnee comes back. IIRC from the call sheets, we know there is a duel at F5. We know the schedule for Day 35. I would imagine that they only have time for one duel in the Finale, and that the returnee will re-enter with 5 in the game.

That would leave two IC's, plus a duel, for the Finale. I don't think the returnee needs to win, but needs to have an impact on the end alliance structure, such that the vote goes differently.


"RE: week 6"
Posted by Corvis on 03-29-11 at 10:12 PM
You could totally be right about Matt and your argument as to the type of Christian he is really persuasive. I would love to see Matt go all the way. But I do think they've invested a lot of time in Stephenie and her willingness to jump ship. It would be strange to show all of that if she loses right away. But then we saw a bunch of discussion about Matt coming back too. Tough call.

Are we certain there are two returnees? I've been thinking one is more likely at this point. Of course if there are two that makes it more likely that Stephenie gets back in the game since she wouldn't have to beat all of those challenge threats you mentioned.

"RE: week 6"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 03-30-11 at 01:11 AM
My bad, Corvis, had a brain lapse talking about Stephanie.

Clearly, she would not have to beat any more people than Matt would.

Jeff and EPM did not say, and we don't know. Jeff said the players don't know.
I personally feel that to drag it out the entire game is too much, so it makes sense to bring one back around the merge, which will put a cap on the whole pre-merge or pre-jury group (not sure which).

Then another near the end.
A lot of people think this, but is it known? Not that I'm aware.

"RE: week 6"
Posted by dabo on 03-30-11 at 01:24 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-11 AT 01:39 AM (EST)

In the four precursors, one had two return from RI, the other three had only one. And, yes, it can run the entire course of the game. Go look at the Israeli 52-day marathon Survivor horror show. On the bright side, everywhere they did it they only did it the one time.

eta

When only three contestants remained, the winner of the last battle of the island returns to the game.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivor_10:_The_Caribbean

"RE: week 6"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-30-11 at 12:02 PM
But I do think they've invested a lot of time in Stephenie and her willingness to jump ship. It would be strange to show all of that if she loses right away.

I think they showed it because it was relevant to the story of her Survivor experience. It doesn't have to affect the larger game. At this point I can't see that jumping ship would end up helping Stephanie, since Zap seems likely to keep losing members for the immediate future.

She's sort of comparable to Shii Ann in Thailand -- eager to flip to a bunch of people who wouldn't really need or want her by the time it became possible for her to do so. So she may as well leave now.


"RE: week 6"
Posted by dabo on 03-30-11 at 12:10 PM
It is kind of obvious that if she gets back in the game she becomes the Ometepe spare wheel, of zero or limited use. How Matt would play things if he returns is a genuine mystery. And Survivor does love the mystery motif.
"RE: week 6"
Posted by Krautboy on 03-29-11 at 10:23 PM
I rewatched the Redemption Island part of the show and Matt DID have a confessional right after he got the bible. It showed him sitting on the beach with his shirt off and he said "i'm so glad I got this bible...it breaths life,"

As Krista said, It was God's will that Matt won, and now he's got the book that "breaths life"...no way I'm betting against him!

The other confessional that I found interesting was Andrea's reaction to the scene on Redemption Island...she was obviously a little jealous. She said she had originally looked forward to him perhaps getting back into the game, but now she saw him as dangerous. It sure sounded like the editors were setting up Andrea's dillema of how to react to Matt when he comes back into the game...consider him an ally, or a threat?

Either way he has to be back in the game for it to matter.



Krautboy

"RE: week 6"
Posted by Corvis on 03-29-11 at 11:44 PM
Oh, yeah, I didn't mean to suggest he didn't have a confessional about the Bible; my point was just that he didn't relate the Bible to surviving in the game. I found the "breathes life" comment less than what it could have been. No direct application to the game - just a comment about the Bible in general.

And the other way to read Andrea's confessional is that her realization that Matt might not be such a great ally points to the end of their story.

But as I said before, I could definitely be wrong!

"RE: week 6"
Posted by kiki_k on 03-30-11 at 00:07 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-11 AT 00:11 AM (EST)

It is funny how people interpret things differently. You see the "breaths life" comment as "not what it could have been." I see it as just about the most powerful thing Matt could say regarding the bible in connection with the game (not that I'm overly religious -- and I do, in general, roll my eyes at people who "pray" to do well on a reality show -- God's got more important things to worry about, IMO). But to talk about an inanimate object (albeit a holy book) as "breaths life" is pretty profound/significant in my mind. Given what we know of Matt & his faith, I've got to agree with KB here and see it as boding well for Matt (ie, right now Matt is in "limbo" -- to use another religious term -- not really "in the game," but now that he has the bible, it will "breath life" into him to get him back into the game).

Of course, I could totally be wrong too.

"RE: week 6"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 03-30-11 at 01:23 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-11 AT 01:29 AM (EST)

I had forgotten that comment.

I'm sure Grant could expound on the centrality of breath.
In Genesis, doesn't God breathe life into Adam after constructing him? Breath is the element that changed Adam from a creature made of earth to a living being. Breath is everything in the Old Testament.

Matt is a likable guy. I've been following his tweets and he has a fine sense of humor, which includes laughing at himself. He comes off a little one-dimensional on the show, for now. I hope we see more rounded side of Matt if he does return.

btw, this is apropos of nothing but he mentioned that although he had almost no clothing at RI because he was blindsided, that Russell left him his jeans. Or left his jeans. The thought of Matt wearing the troll's jeans is rather bizarre and I only hope he found a way to wash them first.

As for Stephanie, I don't think it is important for her to flip. It could have been just a thing that never materialized. What is left is that Boston Rob has a sense that Zapatera is not a harmonious tribe. Honestly, I don't see Rob trusting Stephanie whole-heartedly. He took it with a grain of salt.

I guess I am the only one who thinks this, but there are many things shown in Survivor over the years that don't have any season long implications. They are simply bits of entertainment, part of the ride.

Of course they will show Andrea being jealous and Stephanie telling Rob she will flip. If they only put in stuff that had huge thematic significance, they'd have to leave out a lot that simply makes for a good episode.

I believe that some of it is thematic, and some of it is for right now. I suppose that's why I don't buy into a lot of ideas about what HAS to happen.

I've studied a lot of literature, as have others here, and in great literature, there really shouldn't be any elements that don't belong. Also with a mystery. Every little thing in it should matter.

So I do get why people feel this way about Survivor, but to me it is part wrapped around a theme, but still had its roots in a sort of reality docudrama, in which we follow the daily events of life on the island. It's gotten less like that over the years, but they still put in stuff for human interest.

And this may be blasphemous, but I firmly believe that the animal symbolism does not have precise correlations the way it would in a novel. I think it creates a feeling and adds some visual spice, but I don't think it's predictive of events on the show.

"RE: week 6"
Posted by dabo on 03-30-11 at 01:30 AM
Spiritos. Breath of life. Soul. Vitality. Invisible something. Poetry, it all means the same thing. In some ways the ancient texts have been poorly served by centuries of translation and interpretation.
"RE: week 6"
Posted by kiki_k on 03-30-11 at 03:14 AM
>In Genesis, doesn't God breathe life
>into Adam after constructing him?
> Breath is the element
>that changed Adam from a
>creature made of earth to
>a living being. Breath
>is everything in the Old
>Testament.

Exactly, OFG. We can safely assume Matt "knows" his bible (those Fellowship Christians -- no offense meant to any here -- usually do know chapter & verse of the bible). He knows the significance of what "breathing life" into something means in biblical terms (as in the case of Adam as you rightly point out). That's why the comment stuck out to me as significant.

"RE: week 6"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 03-30-11 at 11:29 AM
Nice observation KrautBoy...that put me back in the Matt camp for a return to the game.
"Week 7"
Posted by dabo on 04-01-11 at 10:54 AM
The Phillip-Rob dynamic continues to be the story at Ometepe, Rob edges out Phillip this week. Mike edges to the top of the remaining Zapatera, merge looming. Sarita emerged from no story to boot story. At Redemption Island Stephanie talked and talked but didn't get a confessional though Matt did. Andrea, Ashley, Julie and Natalie run silent.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0 | 7

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3, 0 | 8

David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2 | 11

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1 | 5

Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1, 0 | 10

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0, 3, 1 | 10

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3 | 13

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0 | 4

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3, 4 | 21

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1, 2 | 12

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5 | 28

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 3 (voted out) | 7

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4, 2 | 12

* * *

Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3, 4 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 12

Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 5

Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9

Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14

Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

* * *

Rob (O) 28
Phillip (O) 21
Mike (Z) 13
Ralph (Z) 12
Steve (Z) 12
David (Z) 11
Julie (Z) 10
Matt (RI) 10
Ashley (O) 8
Andrea (O) 7
Sarita (RI) 7
Grant (O) 5
Natalie (O) 4

"RE: Week 7"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-01-11 at 11:46 AM
It seems really strange to me that Mike has the third highest confessional total -- I can barely remember a single thing he's said.
"RE: Week 7"
Posted by dabo on 04-01-11 at 11:57 AM
They're at 1,000 feet trying to pull out before they hit the deck.

Too late for that, and the narrator has served his purpose. The tight grouping of Zapatera may indicate the pecking order, this is how we Pagong Zapatera. Not going to rely on that, though Mike is certainly on top of the challenge threat list.

"RE: Week 7"
Posted by Corvis on 04-04-11 at 02:31 PM
Ometepe:
Rob – 1D + 1T/11D + 2T/4D + 2T/6D + 4T/1D + 3T/1D + 3T/3D = 12T/26D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T + 0 + 2T/3D + 2T/3D + 2T/1D + 3T/2D = 13T/11D
(RI) Matt – 2T + 1D + 2T + 2T + 0 + 3T + 1T = 10T/1D
Ashley – 1T + 0 + 0 + 1D +1T/2D + 2T/1D + 0 = 4T/4D
Andrea – 1T + 2D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D + 0 = 3T/5D
Grant – 0 + 1T + 0 + 1D + 1T + 0 + 1T = 3T/1D
Natalie – 1T + 1T + 0 + 2D + 0 + 0 + 0 = 2T/2D

LOST DUEL:
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D + 1D = 3T/6D
Kristina – 1T/5D +2D + 0 + 2D + 0 = 1T/9D

Zapatera:
Steve – 0 + 0 + 2T/2D + 0 + 1T/1D + 3T/3D + 2D = 6T/8D
Mike – 2T/1D + 1D + 1T + 1t/1D + 2D + 1D + 3D = 4T/9D
Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T + 2D = 7T/5D
David – 1D + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T + 2D + 2D = 4T/7D
Julie – 0 + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/3D + 1T + 0 = 5T/5D
(RI) Sarita – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 1T/1D + 1D + 4D = 1T/7D

LOST DUEL:
Russell – 3T + 1T/4D +2T/2D + 1T/1D = 7T/7D
Krista – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 2D + 3T = 3T/3D
Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D + 1T/3D + 1T/3D +0 = 5T/9D

A couple of interesting things this week. Grant had a confessional, which is so rare, it's worth noting. He talked about the tribe and how great being together on the reward was. Grant's not a flipper - he will rise of fall as Ometepe rises or falls. Other than that, it was all Rob and Phillip, all the time. What was fun is that each critiqued the other. Rob said Phillip is not self aware and says stupid things. Phillip said he was going to wait for Rob to make a mistake, saying BRob is too controlling and that will be his undoing. So far, we've seen plenty of evidence that Phillip says stupid things. We've seen no evidence that the rest of Rob's tribe thinks he is too controlling. They love him.

That being said, there was some discussion in another thread about what impact it would have on the tribe if they found out Rob had an HII and hadn't told anyone. This is an example of him being controlling - could Phillip's confessional be the beginning of a pointer toward this?

Over at Zappy, we have Mike getting a big ol' bump as he was the one talking about the upcoming TC. I have seen it happen in the past - big bump (particularly Ds) means a boot in the next ep. Wouldn't be surprised to see Mike get it.

However, there's also a theory that the bootee is hidden in the episode prior to their boot. Julie fits that bill as the only Zappy who didn't get a confessional after consistently getting at least one for a while.

Ralph popped up this episode with a confessional that was all about how the game should be played. He basically said you don't have to be smart - you have to be able to maneuver. Those types of players tend to last for a long time. And sometimes they win.

"RE: Week 7"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-04-11 at 03:09 PM
Corvis: I really appreciate you doing these, and I must say, I try and wait to consider these in order to make up my mind regarding the boot. I find them quite helpful, so thanks so much for posting. Not that my track record is any thing to speak of though!

I think that Grant and the Ometepe spa girls all are looking good for the next episode. Grant had one confessional, yes, but he's been having a 1, then 0, then 1, then 0 kind of pattern. I'd say that he's smooth sailing. As for Nat, Ash, and Andrea, they have all fallen under the radar....coasting through mid-game, I would suspect as the alphas and strong male challenge contenders all go after each other.

Rob and Phillip, the star and his supporting star, are pretty status quo as well. They do seem to be creeping up in their totals though, but I think with the merge comes drama and suspense.

Regarding the Zapatera's, Julie's disappearance doesn't surprise me, just as the spa girls have all disappeared. I think she's about to smooth quietly into the merge as well, as she's not a dominant alpha male...but, when the Omes start noticing her challenge prowess, she may come into their radar. For now, I'd say she's safe.

David looks like he's been consistent as well, so he should be safe. Rooster has a 1 confessional spike, but they are both "D's". Mike has a 2 "D" spike as well. I would say that with the CA that Rooster and Mike look to be in the most trouble....hmmmm? Note that Mike has 4T's to 9D's as well, while Ralph has 7T's to 5 D's.

Interesting, thanks so much!


"Week 8"
Posted by dabo on 04-08-11 at 00:34 AM
Crazy crazy crazy! I'm going to separate pre-merge and post-merge confessionals this season just because. Troop Robfaddah and The Purple Gang really only pretended to merge and it looks bad for the Zaps. Matt had the lion's share this week, followed by Mike and then Rob. Phillip took a decisive dive with only one confessional this week (the way he goes on and on it may have seemed like much more). Staying completely off the radar this week were Ashley, David, Natalie (her zeroes are starting to look really really bad) and Ralph.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (merge) 3 | 7/3-10

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (merge) 0 | 8/0-8

David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0 (merge) 0 | 11/0-11

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0 (merge) 1 | 5/1-6

Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1 (merge) 1 | 11/1-12

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 (merge) 4 (voted out) | 13/4-17

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1 (merge) 5 | 14/5-19

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 (merge) 0 | 4/0-4

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3, 4, 1 (merge) 0 | 22/0-22

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0 (merge) 0 | 12/0-12

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1 (merge) 4 | 29/4-33

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4, 2, 0 (merge) 2 | 12/2-14

* * *

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 3 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 9

Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3, 4 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 12

Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 5

Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9

Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14

Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

* * *

Rob (O) 33
Phillip (O) 22
Mike (Z) 19
Matt (RI) 17
Steve (Z) 14
Julie (Z) 12
Ralph (Z) 12
David (Z) 11
Andrea (O) 10
Ashley (O) 8
Grant (O) 6
Natalie (O) 4

"RE: Week 8"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-08-11 at 01:49 PM
Thanks for doing this, week after week, dabo. Very interesting numbers. Spikes: Andrea, Mike, Steve. Also interesting is that Ralph and Phillip are falling under the radar, as is David.

I will be really interested in what Corvis has to say with the CA. Andrea got a spike because she was integral to the Matt story. I expect her to slip right back down now. Mike got a HUGE spike. I'd say he's in trouble. Steve as well. I wouldn't be surprised if both of these men went this week, but Mike's big spike is reflective of him stepping up to the leader plate to take on the Ome's, and specifically Rob. Rob is a worthy adversary. This past episode set up a new contest...Mike vs. Rob. It could be answered this week. If Mike has the HII, and plays it in the first TC, then he's toast in the next one.

Steve, he's a dead man walking, as he noted in the last episode, if Matt and Andrea don't join us, we're dead.....and it showed him looking rather dead on the screen, a night, lying in the shelter with his eyes closed.

However, Ralph could also be the boot. He's gone under the radar in the last 2 eps...he'd be the "surprise" boot. His story has seemed to be wrapped around finding the HII and using it to outwit Russell. He beat Russell at his own game. Now that he's given the idol away, his story is over, imo.

The fact that Phillip has gone under the radar is something as well. Could be the "calm" before the storm, so to speak. The quiet before his ultimate demise. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ometepe's get out 2 Zaps this week, that they turn on Phillip next week. Especially if he's going rogue.


"RE: Week 8"
Posted by Corvis on 04-12-11 at 02:15 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-12-11 AT 05:06 PM (EST)

Murlonio:

Rob – 1D + 1T/11D + 2T/4D + 2T/6D + 4T/1D + 3T/1D + 3T/3D + 1T/4D = 13T/30D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T + 0 + 2T/3D + 2T/3D + 2T/1D + 3T/2D + 2T = 15T/11D
(RI) Matt – 2T + 1D + 2T + 2T + 0 + 3T +1T + 2T/6D= 12T/7D
Mike – 2T/1D + 1D + 1T + 1T/1D + 2D + 1D + 3D + 5D = 4T/14D
Steve – 0 + 0 + 2T/2D + 0 + 1T/1D + 3T/3D + 2D + 1T/1D = 7T/9D
Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T + 2D + 0 = 7T/5D
Julie – 0 + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/3D + 1T + 0 + 1T/1D = 6T/6D
David – 1D + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T + 2D + 2D + 0 = 4T/7D
Andrea – 1T + 2D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D + 0 + 3D = 3T/8D
Ashley – 1T + 0 + 0 + 1D +1T/2D + 2T/1D + 0 + 0 = 4T/4D
Grant – 0 + 1T + 0 + 1D + 1T + 0 + 1T + 1T = 4T/1D
Natalie – 1T + 1T + 0 + 2D + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 2T/2D

LOST DUEL:
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D + 1D = 3T/6D
Kristina – 1T/5D +2D + 0 + 2D + 0 = 1T/9D
Russell – 3T + 1T/4D +2T/2D + 1T/1D = 7T/7D
Krista – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 2D + 3T = 3T/3D
Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D + 1T/3D + 1T/3D +0 = 5T/9D
Sarita – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 1T/1D + 1D + 4D + 2T = 1T/7D

It's fun to put them all together now that they've merged because you see clearly who is getting the most confessional time. After Rob, Phillip and Matt, you have all of the Zappys plus Andrea grouped together and then at the end are Rob's followers - Ashley, Grant and Natalie.

I know some have been saying Phillip disappeared this episode, but that's not really true. He had two important confessionals - one about the treemail/merge and the other telling us he has learned from Rob and wants to stick with Ometepe for now. Both were early in the episode and he certainly didn't have as many as usual though.

Mike has been the narrator of tribe conflict the last four episodes, which is never a really good sign particularly when you don't get the "The merge feast was great!" confessionals. Speaking of which, Steve got one of those and so did Julie. Steve also had a confessional about the division in the tribe. Ralph disappeared this week, which could of course mean he getting the disappear before your boot edit. David also fits that bill as he disappeared too. And you know, David had plenty to say about tribal dynamics in confessionals. But they didn't show it to us... I wonder if Ralph or David might be that second boot this week.

If I were going to pick either Natalie or Ashley to make the final 3, I'd predict it'll be Ashley. She's being edited as the more outspoken one, more rhymes with witchy and would be more interesting at the end. If Natalie makes it, I think we'd be seeing a lot more of her personality. We didn't even get a confessional from her about how she felt about winning immunity!

"RE: Week 8"
Posted by CTgirl on 04-12-11 at 02:32 PM
Thanks to both you and Dabo for compiling the confessional analysis each week. After I went out and predicted that Ashley was going to be the boot (and I was so wrong), I wondered to myself if all that lazy spa stuff and tweezing the armpit was laying the groundwork for how Ashley loses in the F3.
"Another thing about Phillip"
Posted by HitmanPayne on 04-12-11 at 03:15 PM
Alot of people are saying that his dip in confessionals will signal a boot. Did they ever think maybe the editors wanted to focus more on Matt/Mike/Andrea this past episode because it was an important episode with the merge. Of course, they have to give Rob his usual 4-6 confessionals per episode as well. It doesn't necessarily mean that Phillip will be one of the next two booted.
"RE: Week 8"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-12-11 at 03:47 PM
Yes, thanks so much for posting, Corvis. I really do get alot out of these. You make some great observations. You guys are all probably right this week, that 2 Zappy's will go. If I had to pick one after Mike, it would most definitely be David. Steve just seems status quo...he's a dead man walking. Picked off at any time....he is weak and not really threatening. You know what would be funny....is if David won the first IC, and then Mike got the boot, then, I could see David getting it in the second TC...Rob can't have anyone left around that could beat him at puzzles. Think I'll post that in the SOTS thread. Thanks!
"Week 9"
Posted by dabo on 04-14-11 at 01:43 PM
Cult of Rob week. Interesting to note that both boots were the Zaps who came closest to winning immunity. And somewhere along the way Rob relayed to the troops that he doesn't care who wins immunity as long as the Zapateras all lose (there really was no reason for the Ometepes to refuse food otherwise). The three degrees (Andrea, Ashley, Natalie) and Steve chalk up the zeroes as Rob jumps back on top. Natalie hasn't had a confessional since episode 4, Ashley since episode 6. Redemption Island made token appearances at the start and finish of the episode only.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (merge) 3, 0 | 7/3-10

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0 | 8/0-8

David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 4 (voted out) | 11/4-15

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0 (merge) 1, 1 | 5/2-7

Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1 (merge) 1, 2 | 11/3-14

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 (merge) 4 (voted out), 1 | 13/5-18

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1 (merge) 5, 3 (voted out) | 14/8-22

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0 | 4/0-4

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3, 4, 1 (merge) 0, 1 | 22/1-23

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 2 | 12/2-14

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1 (merge) 4, 7 | 29/11-40

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4, 2, 0 (merge) 2, 0 | 12/2-14

* * *

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 3 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 9
Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3, 4 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 12
Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 5
Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9
Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14
Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

* * *

Rob (O) 40
Phillip (O) 23
Mike (RI) 22
Matt (RI) 18
David (RI) 15
Julie (Z) 14
Ralph (Z) 14
Steve (Z) 14
Andrea (O) 10
Ashley (O) 8
Grant (O) 7
Natalie (O) 4

"RE: Week 9"
Posted by Corvis on 04-19-11 at 05:35 PM
Murlonio:

Rob – 1D + 1T/11D + 2T/4D + 2T/6D + 4T/1D + 3T/1D + 3T/3D + 1T/4D + 2T/6D = 15T/36D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T + 0 + 2T/3D + 2T/3D + 2T/1D + 3T/2D + 2T + 1D = 15T/12D
(RI) Mike – 2T/1D + 1D + 1T + 1T/1D + 2D + 1D + 3D + 5D + 1T/2D = 5T/16D
(RI) Matt – 2T + 1D + 2T + 2T + 0 + 3T +1T + 2T/6D + 1D = 12T/8D
Steve – 0 + 0 + 2T/2D + 0 + 1T/1D + 3T/3D + 2D + 1T/1D + 0 = 7T/9D
(RI) David – 1D + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T + 2D + 2D + 0 + 1T/3D = 5T/10D
Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T + 2D + 0 + 2T = 9T/5D
Julie – 0 + 0 + 2T/1D + 1T/1D + 1T/3D + 1T + 0 + 1T/1D + 1T/1D = 7T/7D
Andrea – 1T + 2D + 1T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D + 0 + 3D + 0 = 3T/8D
Ashley – 1T + 0 + 0 + 1D +1T/2D + 2T/1D + 0 + 0 + 0 = 4T/4D
Grant – 0 + 1T + 0 + 1D + 1T + 0 + 1T + 1T + 1T = 5T/1D
Natalie – 1T + 1T + 0 + 2D + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 2T/2D

LOST DUEL:
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D + 1D = 3T/6D
Kristina – 1T/5D +2D + 0 + 2D + 0 = 1T/9D
Russell – 3T + 1T/4D +2T/2D + 1T/1D = 7T/7D
Krista – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 2D + 3T = 3T/3D
Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 + 1T/1D + 1D + 1T/3D + 1T/3D +0 = 5T/9D
Sarita – 0 + 0 + 0 + 1D + 1T/1D + 1D + 4D + 2T = 1T/7D

Don't have time for much analysis this week, but wanted to get the numbers out there. Can't believe Ashley and Natalie have had no confessionals for 3 and 5 episodes respectively. Grant continues to plod along with his obligatory one confessional per episode. Almost like they want to make sure we realize he's still there. Makes me think he has a story coming up where he gets some more face time. Andrea has been really up and down lately. Perhaps her whole story is just tied to Matt. With her consistent T confessionals, Julie strikes me as the last Zap standing. Makes me wonder if she'll be able to create a counter alliance with the girls. At some point, they have to realize they need to turn on Rob.

Of the three at RI, Mike got the short shrift, with on confessional about being on RI. That contrasts unfavorably with Matt who once again talked about God's will. And David who made the point that the only chance for Zappys might be RI. I am leaning toward a Zappy returning to the game, not Matt. But then I go back and forth on that...

"RE: Week 9"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-19-11 at 07:13 PM
Thanks dabo and Corvis...

This whole season is seen through Rob's eyes. His every perspective...it's very curious. Phillip also has 1 confessional, but what a confessional it was...he knows everyone wants to sit next to him at the Finals, he's been polarizing, and antagonizing....they want him as their number 2....and he's ok with that!

Andrea indeed had 3 confessionals when Matt returned, but now, she's back under the radar, even though she won the IN....doesn't bode well, imo.

Grant status quo, Ashley and Natalie, status quo. Steve flies under the radar while Ralph could beginning his final arc. Julie is steady.

Regarding RI, I am leaning toward a Matt return....I wouldn't be surprised to see David become the first member of the jury...fwiw.

"Week 10"
Posted by dabo on 04-21-11 at 02:51 PM
Kind of a doldrums week confessionalwise. ON RI Mike zeroed even with a duel win, the David loses story and Matthew's religious crisis took the focus. Maybe Mike ticked off production when he started digging an escape tunnel from Stalag RI.

Natalie continued her zero streak (six straight weeks!), this week joined by Grant and Ralph. Phillip and Steve tie for top honors, not surprising considering, with Rob close behind, again not surprising. Julie got a couple but almost no boot story, so we can speculate the reason for her boot was to prevent Phillip from ever finding his $1600 shorts. For those keeping score, he's had two drawers attacked this season, that may be a record; I doubt anyone wants to go after the pink briefs. Ashley has an ominous one confessional bump for daring to hate Jeff's beloved Phillip.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (merge) 3, 0, 1 | 7/4-11

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0, 1 | 8/1-9

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0 (merge) 1, 1, 0 | 5/2-7

Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1 (merge) 1, 2, 2 (voted out) | 11/5-16

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 (merge) 4 (voted out), 1, 3 | 13/8-21

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1 (merge) 5, 3 (voted out), 0 | 14/8-22

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0, 0 | 4/0-4

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3, 4, 1 (merge) 0, 1, 4 | 22/5-27

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 2, 0 | 12/2-14

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1 (merge) 4, 7, 3 | 29/14-43

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4, 2, 0 (merge) 2, 0, 4 | 12/6-18

* * *

David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 11/6-17

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 3 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 9
Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3, 4 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 12
Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 5
Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9
Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14
Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

* * *

Rob (O) 43
Phillip (O) 27
Mike (RI) 22
Matt (RI) 21
Steve (Z) 18
Julie (RI) 16
Ralph (Z) 14
Andrea (O) 11
Ashley (O) 9
Grant (O) 7
Natalie (O) 4

"RE: Week 10"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-21-11 at 03:27 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-26-11 AT 03:12 PM (EST)

First of all, the fact that Matt got 3 confessionals on RI, and Mike got O, while winning the duel, speaks volumes, imo. With the intro to the show pitting Matt vs. Rob....hello, we will see it happen, imo. David had his quota for boot episode, imo.

Back at Murlonio...with Ralph flying under the radar, I would venture to guess that he could possibly be the last Zap standing. Steve got a big spike this week, tied to crazy Phillip, but a spike never-the-less. I think Steve may finally get something he can really eat after next week.

Phillip: It's still all about Phillip. His confessionals, however gave me some pause. Especially the one that said he and Rob have come through a full circle of trust...this spells disaster, imo. If he's the journey player, than his journey is over, he's completed the circle. And, let's face it, he was at odds with Rob as the leader of his tribe, from day 1. You've heard me say it more than once however, but I'll say it again. I think that finally Phillip will be toast.

Not going anywhere next week: Rob, Grant, Natalie, ?Ralph.

Andrea and Ashley coming on the radar? We heard Rob say last ep that Ralph has ruined Ashley's chances of being in the final 3, and now with the previews this week, will Andrea get her face in the crosshairs?

Most likely in danger from confessionals....Steve and Phillip

ETA: I don't know, I really need to hear what Corvis has to say. Sure, Steve and Phillip got the spikes, but Rooster and Grant are flying under the radar. Could they be the surprise boots? ACKKKK!


"RE: Week 10"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-26-11 at 03:07 PM
Toe tapping for Corvis...


"RE: Week 10"
Posted by Corvis on 04-27-11 at 10:53 AM
No time this week. Hopefully, I'll catch up next week...
"Week 11"
Posted by dabo on 04-28-11 at 02:05 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-29-11 AT 00:21 AM (EST)

And so the Pagonging of Zapatera concludes. Andrea has a big bump this week, Grant actually gets more than one confessionals, 19-year-old Natalie is still getting the hey kid we'll give you a break we shouldn't cast them this young 0 string. On RI Mike and Matt both got to speak as Julie zeroed to the jury with no story. It is pretty much numerically impossible now for anyone to get more confessionals this season than Rob, Phillip holds onto a respectable second place that probably cannot be surpassed by anyone not at Redemption Island.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (merge) 3, 0, 1, 4 | 7/8-15

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0, 1, 1 | 8/2-10

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0 (merge) 1, 1, 0, 2 | 5/4-9

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 (merge) 4 (voted out), 1, 3, 1 | 13/9-22

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1 (merge) 5, 3 (voted out), 0, 1 | 14/9-23

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0, 0, 0 | 4/0-4

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3, 4, 1 (merge) 0, 1, 4, 3 | 22/8-30

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 2, 0, 1 (voted out) | 12/3-15

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1 (merge) 4, 7, 3, 3 | 29/17-46

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4, 2, 0 (merge) 2, 0, 4, 2 (voted out) | 12/8-20

* * *

Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1 (merge) 1, 2, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 11/5-16
David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 11/6-17

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 3 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 9
Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3, 4 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 12
Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 5
Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9
Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14
Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

* * *

Rob (O) 46
Phillip (O) 30
Mike (RI) 23
Matt (RI) 22
Steve (RI) 20
Ralph (RI) 15
Andrea (O) 15
Ashley (O) 10
Grant (O) 9
Natalie (O) 4

"RE: Week 11"
Posted by Flowerpower on 05-03-11 at 01:40 PM
Thanks for doing this faithfully every week, dabo! I really appreciate it. I just wish Corvis could do the analysis, cause he's so good at it. I'll give it my best shot...

This week we are down to 6 left in the game, and 4 on RI. I'd say that this week Ashley, Nat, Rob, and Phillip are status quo....which bodes well for them all. Nat is flying well under the radar which is good that she makes it to F3, but it's bad that she will not win the game with no confessionals week after week. Ashley had one narrative confessional, which imo is also status quo, under the radar. I see nothing that she's saying that has any impact on the game. Rob and Phillip are the stars and they are status quo as well, no big spikes...I look at these four as safe

Grant and Andrea, OTOH, both had a spike. Andrea had a huge spike. Her confessionals all had to do with Matt. It seems like her entire game is in support of or wrapped up in Matt. Of the two characters, Matt seems the one that is more heavily weighted. I expect to see a Matt vs. Rob scenario down the road. Andrea is the supporting character in the movie. But, will she enable Matt in the end, or will she be supportive of Rob....that's the question. As the show winds down, it seems like Andrea is starting a dramatic arc of some kind. She could be getting ready to be reunited with Matt one way or the other...

Grant. He went from no confessionals to 2 confessionals, and that is the most he's ever had in one episode. His confessionals were also a bit meatier...he told us strategy...hmmmm. I think they would be considered what Corvis calls "D" confessionals. I'd say Grant is not long for this game. So, I'd say most likely to head to RI are indeed Andrea or Grant....

"RE: Week 11"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 05-03-11 at 07:37 PM
It's a sad thing for this season that one big story arc seems to relate to two people reuniting who've spent eight days together and managed to have a no-mance. I so don't care about their non-ship.

I would like to think that Andrea and Matt matter because at some point they make a game move together -- or apart because of distrust.

People keep saying they can close their story by reuniting and reconciling on RI and fighting a duel together. Pardon me but gag me ... WHO CARES? Not I. Only one can go back into the game.

The only way their story has any value to the season after the merge vote where they could have changed the game but didn't, is if they are both in the game at F5 and that affects the outcome. YMMV,

"RE: Week 11"
Posted by dabo on 05-03-11 at 08:15 PM
Well, sometimes they talk about things in confessionals because they are replying to questions from a producer. I say that because I don't believe there was any real romance going on with Andrea and Matt, they were just a couple of friendly people being friendly and that happened to trip Rob's paranoia button early on. It's just editing.

Whether they reunite at Redemption, in Murlonio, on the jury, at the wrap party, it doesn't matter. I think the editors are using whatever they can to keep Matt's story going, and other than the duels nothing remotely interesting (gamewise) happens on Redemption Island.

Now that Ometepe are reduced to interpersonal dynamics...

Rob's only problem with Andrea is that he made her the sixth wheel by excluding her from the original Matt vote, so he doesn't trust her because if someone had done that to him he'd be looking to even the score.

Ashley hates Phillip.

Phillip resents the laziness of Ashley and Natalie.

"RE: Week 11"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-04-11 at 10:58 AM
Well, sometimes they talk about things in confessionals because they are replying to questions from a producer.

Sometimes? I assume they are always responding to an interviewer's questions.

"RE: Week 11"
Posted by dabo on 05-04-11 at 11:31 AM
Expressed myself poorly. Sometimes, because they are being interviewed, they talk about things they wouldn't have otherwise cared to talk or think about. Andrea is useful for the Matt story because nothing in-game happens at RI, at least nothing they can broadcast. Andrea also has her own individual story, it just isn't one of the big story arcs of the season.
"RE: Week 11"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-04-11 at 12:32 PM
Ah, I get what you meant.
"Week 12"
Posted by dabo on 05-06-11 at 01:18 AM
This week the boot got no individual attention after the introduction, but the Redemption Island nonsense received some unexpected attention (unexpected by me anyway) as an actual game element intruded on the serenity of the religious retreat. Rob continues to dominate, Phillip continues to think he dominates, and the Ometepe Kool-Ade Kids all get big bumps (Natalie breaks her zero streak and finally surpasses Krista!) probably just because the editors had no other options.

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (merge) 3, 0, 1, 4, 1 (voted out) | 7/9-16

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0, 1, 1, 3 | 8/5-13

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0 (merge) 1, 1, 0, 2, 1 | 5/5-10

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 (merge) 4 (voted out), 1, 3, 1, 2 | 13/11-24

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1 (merge) 5, 3 (voted out), 0, 1, 3 | 14/12-26

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0, 0, 0, 3 | 4/3-7

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3, 4, 1 (merge) 0, 1, 4, 3, 2 | 22/10-32

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 2, 0, 1 (voted out), 2 | 12/5-17

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1 (merge) 4, 7, 3, 3, 6 | 29/23-52

* * *

Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4, 2, 0 (merge) 2, 0, 4, 2 (voted out), 1 (eliminated) | 12/9-21
Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1 (merge) 1, 2, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 11/5-16
David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 11/6-17

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 3 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 9
Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3, 4 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 12
Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 5
Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9
Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14
Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

* * *

Rob (O) 52
Phillip (O) 32
Mike (RI) 26
Matt (RI) 24
Ralph (RI) 17
Andrea (RI) 16
Ashley (O) 13
Grant (O) 10
Natalie (O) 7

"RE: Week 12"
Posted by Flowerpower on 05-06-11 at 08:04 AM
Wow, that's interesting. Natalie got a large spike for her....makes me wonder if she could be the one that is blindsided...we know that Grant wants them to be split up. More than likely he wants Ashley to stay, that's his sleeping buddy....Phillip hates Ashley the most, but he's good with either going down the path...

Rob got a big spike as well, and a softening of his character....and what you don't want to happen, happened...

Ashley also got a big spike...seems she is either the decoy or the boot this week...

Judging by Phillip's confessionals, he seems to be the most steady. Will Phillip cruise into the finals, is his strategy "brilliant"?

Also, it appears that Grant is safe for now...at least until the RI'er is taken care of, perhaps?


"RE: Week 12"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 05-06-11 at 08:53 AM
Natalie will be F3 and there are only two more episodes, so she had to start having a presence eventually. Same with Ashley. There are no other bodies around to talk and give more interesting confessionals than the girls.
"RE: Week 12"
Posted by dabo on 05-06-11 at 11:03 AM
Ashley's confessionals this week were all of the Mr. Obvious narrator sort basically verbalizing what was happening on the screen; other than palling around with Natalie and wanting Phillip gone she has no story to speak of.

I've been trying to project forward to the next episode, it is probably the last time Rob can play the HII so I consider him safe and still in the drivers seat. They don't know when someone will be returning to the game from RI, and maybe it is now obvious that it is somewhat pointless to worry about who it is who eventually returns. So loyalty becomes a big issue, but how does Rob test loyalty when no one can make a move against him?

"Week 13"
Posted by dabo on 05-13-11 at 10:42 AM
After a brief spurt of interesting, Redemption returns to no-game boring with just the drama of Andrea's arrival, Andrea and Mike pulling 0s. Shucks. (Notably, Matt and Mike are almost tied in total numbers, they have evened out in post-merge confessionals.)

Back in the game Rob pulls out way ahead with double digits, big spike! Phillip goes covertly 0. Ashley's big move turns out to be ignoring Phillip to get Grant out of the way, she is in a very dangerous position. (With the lowest total numbers, Natalie probably will become a teenager in the finale and is in the safest spot in the game to reach FTC.)

Andrea 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (merge) 3, 0, 1, 4, 1 (voted out), 0 | 7/9-16

Ashley 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 4 | 8/9-17

Grant 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0 (merge) 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 3 (voted out) | 5/8-13

Matt 2, 1 (voted out), 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 (merge) 4 (voted out), 1, 3, 1, 2, 1 | 13/12-25

Mike 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1 (merge) 5, 3 (voted out), 0, 1, 3, 0 | 14/12-26

Natalie 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 (merge) 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 2 | 4/5-9

Phillip 4, 1, 0, 5, 4, 3, 4, 1 (merge) 0, 1, 4, 3, 2, 0 | 22/10-32

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1 (merge) 4, 7, 3, 3, 6, 10 | 29/33-62

* * *

Ralph "Rooster" 2, 3, 2, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 2, 0, 1 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 12/6-18
Steve 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 4, 2, 0 (merge) 2, 0, 4, 2 (voted out), 1 (eliminated) | 12/9-21
Julie 0, 0, 3, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1 (merge) 1, 2, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 11/5-16
David 1, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0 (merge) 0, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 11/6-17

Sarita 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 3 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 9
Stephanie 2, 0, 2, 1, 3, 4 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 12
Krista 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 5
Kristina 5, 2, 0, 2 (voted out), 0 (eliminated) | 9
Russell 3, 5, 4 (voted out), 2 (eliminated) | 14
Francesca 6 (voted out), 2, 1 (eliminated) | 9

* * *

Rob (M) 62
Phillip (M) 32
Mike (RI) 26
Matt (RI) 25
Ashley (M) 17
Andrea (RI) 16
Grant (RI) 13
Natalie (M) 9