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"EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by Krautboy on 10-06-10 at 05:29 PM
***SPOILER ALERT!!! DON’T GO IF YOU DON’T WANT TO KNOW!!!***

This is a discussion of the EP5 Boot and includes references to Missyae spoilers.

The swap takes place in EP5, but what’s still unclear is if the double boot happens the same episode or in EP6. I’m speculating that Yve and Kelly B. are double boot victims in EP5, immediately after the swap…

Missyae keeps lamenting that Yve has not gotten enough face time and that her time is running out. In fact two weeks ago Missyae posted that if she’s goin to get any, it better happen in the next couple weeks “before she gets screwed by the swap.”

Missyae also describes Kelly B. as a victim of the swap, after which both Yve and Kelly B. are outsiders on their new tribes separated from their alliance partners.

We know that Yve and Tyrone are the two post swap boots from one tribe and that Kelly B. and Jill are the boots from the other.

We have also been told that the double boot involves two females. Since Yve is the only pre-merge boot female from the tribe with Tyrone, she will be voted out in the same episode with Kelly B. or Jill.

Since Missyae’s posts about Yve sound like she may leave next episode, we would then have to conclude that the double boot also happens in EP5…in which case Kelly B. or Jill also leave in EP5.

Missyae makes a point of telling us that Kelly is a victim of the swap and is blind-sided by her tribe, so Kelly is probably first to go, before Jill.

The tribal Swap is a major event the editors are setting up to squeeze as much out of as possible. The Kelly B. story has been one of the main storylines leading up to the swap. Kelly has been edited as a likely boot target because she is considered a “sympathy vote” threat and outside the main alliance. Kelly B. appears to be in trouble. The editors have not made any attempt to hide the fact that Kelly is the next La Flor to go, because the swap will probably be edited to make it appear to save her. Kelly will be relieved and think she is part of the majority

Brenda, Kelly S, Fabio, Sash, Kelly B
Jane, Marty, Jill

At first glance, the post swap tribe appears to have Kelly B. in the majority with her fellow La Flors. However, Brenda, and company must still consider her a dangerous swing vote, in the event she went over to Jane, Marty and Jill, forcing a 4-4 tie at TC. So, the other La Flors probably tell her the target is one of the Espada’s setting her up to be “blind-sided” by her former tribe mates. After Kelly B. is gone, picking off Jill is an easy next boot for the remaining original La Flor.

Here are the relevant Missyae quotes that appear to support a possible double boot in EP5:

"After the swap, these are the tribes. Now you can figure it out.
Brenda Lowe
Kelly Shinn
Fabio (Jud)
Sash (Matthew)
Kelly Bruno
Marty
Jill
Jane

VS

Naonka Mixon
Benry (Ben)
Chase
Alina
Yve
Holly
Tyronne
Danny


“Yve was a huge part of the Marty, Jill alliance. She was in that alliance, very strongly. She and Marty spoke with each other using spanish so others would not know what they were talking about. We have not seen that and I thought we might, complete with sub-titles. I think that would have been very cool to see and hear. She was very well liked out there. Maybe they will have more from her but it needs to be fast…”

” It is starting to sound like the swap really played with some people's games. If I get anything else about this 'confusion' over Kelly B, I will post it. No doubt about it, she DID NOT make the merge.”

Missyae Replied:
"Needless to say, she is blindsided."

“Again, I am not going to confirm list or refute them. It does not mean I disagree with you doing them, I guess it's natural to do. I just want it clear that if you are doing it for me to confirm or deny, I am not going to do that. As far as who blindsides Kelly Bruno, yeah I know but I think that will be really fun to just watch it play out. I cannot stress enough to watch AND record. It should be a 'keeper'.”

“Thanks Sonoerin!! It will be interesting to see what is shown as far as Kelly Shinn goes on Kelly Bruno's boot.”

You know Kelly B leaves pre-merge now. There is enough info to tell you why Kelly B left. It was not because she and Alina held back info on the clue. Two S's did her in. Shannon and Swap. She lost her alliance and after next week, well it might not be a good thing to have been in an alliance with Shannon.

"Not joking, it was Yve's idea and she was the backbone.
Keep watching press images and vidcaps and you will likely see her alliance partnersbut do it in the next couple of weeks before she gets screwed by the swap."

"I would love to be able to say Yve made the jury but that was not the case.”


Krautboy

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-06-10 at 05:51 PM
I also think Kelly B will get voted out first after the switch.

According to missyae, when Jill gets booted it was either Marty or Jill, so Marty took care of Marty. If Jill were the first boot after the switch, they'd most likely vote out Marty next since he was also on the chopping block the first time. Why suddenly turn the tables and vote out Kelly B?

It's more logical that the LaFlors in that tribe, seeing they can boot Kelly B right away and keep their majority, will do that first. Then they can set their sights on Jill and Marty.

"RE: EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by Krautboy on 10-06-10 at 06:20 PM
BR: I love how your brain works! Excellent logic.

Once we figure out which post swap tribe is New La Flor and which is New Espada, we can throw the BW pre-merge sandwich back into the mix, which should confirm the boot order of the four pre-merge boots...Kelly B., Yve, Jill, and Tyrone.

"...in the pre-merge sandwich, Espada is the meat to La Flor's bread..." and since we know only one more original La Flor goes pre-merge, we can assume the sandwich must refer to post-swap tribes. In which case we know the last three pre-merge TC's will be New La Flor, New Espada, New La Flor.



Krautboy

"RE: EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-06-10 at 06:28 PM
I'll leave the sandwich to you, it gave me a headache the first time.

"Blackwhale Sandwich Revisited"
Posted by Krautboy on 10-07-10 at 00:53 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-07-10 AT 03:05 AM (EST)



NaOnka and Alina wearing New Espada Buffs (Courtesy of Survivor Fever)


So, these are the post-swap tribes...

New La Flor

Brenda Lowe
Kelly Shinn
Fabio (Jud)
Sash (Matthew)
Kelly Bruno
Marty
Jill
Jane

VS

New Espada

Naonka Mixon
Benry (Ben)
Chase
Alina
Yve
Holly
Tyronne
Danny


Assuming the Blackwhale Sandwich is made up of the three boots before the merge….”La Flor is the bread to Espadas meat”…then the next four boots will happen in this order:

Swap…E…L…E…L…Merge

Since Yve and Tyrone end up on New espada it will look like this...

New Espada (E)
Tyrone
Yve

New La Flor (L)
Kelly B.
Jill

Base on Missyae spoilers we are assuming Yve and Kelly B. get booted before Tyrone and Jill.

Swap
EP5…(E) Yve.
EP5…(L) Kelly B.
EP6…(E) Tyrone
EP7…(L) Jill
Merge

In this scenario the double boot would have to take place in EP5 in order for the BW Sandwich to work. We know one female from each tribe goes at the double boot. This is the scenario that I believe fits best with the Missyae spoilers, in which Yve and Kelly B. are victims of the swap….

Regardless, once we confirm the EP5 boots, the other boots leading up to the merge fall into place.


Krautboy

"RE: Blackwhale Sandwich Revisited"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-07-10 at 10:01 AM
Good thread, KB. One other consideration to throw into the mix is which of the new tribes will have the MOP? (assuming it continues) If we knew that, it might help us to figure out which of the post-swap tribes goes to TC first.

I'll have to look at the vidcaps to see if we can tell who's wearing it in the group shot. My guess is that Marty is the type who would want to have it.

"RE: Blackwhale Sandwich Revisited"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-07-10 at 11:23 AM
They usually tout a double TC in the promos, and it wasn't mentioned in last night's preview. Of course that could very well be because the switch was first priority, but have they ever done a switch and a double boot in one round of play? I'd think they'd want to spread out the shocks to the contestants' systems (and to the audience) a little more.

I know missyae keeps saying Yve leaves really soon but I'm not sure it has to be next week. It could be Tyrone's turn, then Kelly B and Yve the following week, then Jill right before merge.

If there is going to be a double boot next week I would think we'll get some hint of it from the subsequent promos.

"Double Boot in EP6"
Posted by Krautboy on 10-07-10 at 11:20 AM
As OFG, BR and others have been saying, the Double Boot has always taken place in EP6. Missyae confirmed that this season follows the traditional pattern.

“Okay, just joking. Here you go. This week is only ONE boot. This week features TWO Captains making the selections for the new tribes. ONE captain has a big decision to make. Marty and Jill will have a tough time adjusting to their new tribemates. I dont know if they will start showing it this week but another player starts their juggling act going between two main alliance members. New bonds are made. NO double boot this week. This is not a joke. DOUBLE boot is the following week.”

“It is NOT the old way of alternating picks where you pick a player and then the next pick is made by them. ONE Captain per tribe makes all the selections.”

So, who goe to TC and who goes next?



Krautboy

"RE: Double Boot in EP6"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-07-10 at 11:26 AM
IF the MOP stays with the (new) Espada, then that could possibly point to an Espada IC win and the (new) La Flor going to TC and the Kelly B boot.

Sounds like a lot of pressure on the Captains.

"RE: Double Boot in EP6"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-07-10 at 11:35 AM
P.S. Might be interesting to spec about who the 2 captains are.

Assuming there's 1 captain from the "old" La Flor who does the picking and 1 from "old" Espada, and looking at Missyae's list of each tribe post-swamp, it appears that Tyrone (and not Marty) might be the one who does the picking for Espada. Of course they might do something random to pick the Captains.

I wonder if Brenda or Sash do the picking for La Flor? Doesn't appear to be Chase since he ends up on the other tribe.

Could the big choice that Missyae refers to one captain having to make have to do with Brenda needing to decide whether or not to pick Chase or Naonka? Other ideas?

"RE: Double Boot in EP6"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-07-10 at 12:00 PM
Since the new tribal distribution of old La Flors and Espadas is as even as it could be under the circumstances, the captains must have to pick alternating old La Flors and old Espadas.

That means the last selection for each captain would be an old La Flor member. The big decision is probably for whichever captain has to pick first on the final round.


"Missyae info re Captain's big decision"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-10-10 at 05:41 PM
Posted 10/10 by Missyae:

"The decision a captain had to make was whether they wanted a majority of females or males on their tribe. They took females. Captain Brenda with that girl power." (Note Missyae also posted today that Sash is part of Brenda's eventual blindside.)

So Brenda's going for girl power -- I guess that's why she picks Jill and Jane vs. Tyrone or other strong males. It will be interesting to see how obvious she is in her picks/girl power thing, and whether this is the beginning of her undoing.

This also leads me to believe (coupled with the promo clip and Missyae's comment below that Jill has some good stuff coming up) that Jill could be one of the people juggling alliances post-swap, not just Holly and Jane. Maybe Jill debates whether to flip with Jane and go with Brenda/girl power vs. stay with Marty?

Seems like things are starting to come together now -- i.e. why Marty would give Sash the HII (Brenda doesn't like Marty and perhaps targets him...Sash sees a way to get the HII for himself in the name of male bonding vs. girl power and orchestrates a Kelly B boot instead); and why Naonka gives Chase the HII (hug/consoling vidcap in this week's clips).

"RE: Double Boot in EP6"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-07-10 at 11:35 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-07-10 AT 11:42 AM (EST)

As OFG, BR and others have been saying the Double Boot has always taken place in EP6.

Actually I've never said that KB, because I'm not sure I was aware of it ; but I did just post above that I didn't think the DB would be in Ep 5 because it's usually promo-ed, and with the switch it would be too much for one episode. Then I read your latest info in the missyae thread.

Edited to answer my own question -- missyae did say that two women leave in the double boot so Yve getting booted in Ep 6 is the only definite at the moment.

"Tyrone?"
Posted by Krautboy on 10-07-10 at 02:44 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-07-10 AT 02:59 PM (EST)

OK, not quite ready to give up on the Blackwhale Sandwich yet. There is still one scenario that works with both Missyae and Blackwhale info...

Still assuming the Blackwhale Sandwich is made up of the three boots before the merge….”La Flor is the bread to Espadas meat”…then the next four boots will happen in this order:

Swap…E…L…E…L…Merge

New Espada (E)
Tyrone
Yve

New La Flor (L)
Kelly B.
Jill

Base on Missyae spoilers, but without reading too much into them...

Swap
EP5…(E) Tyrone
Double Boot EP6
EP6…(L) Kelly B.
EP6…(E) Yve
EP7…(L) Jill
Merge

In this scenario the double boot takes place in EP6 as Missyae has told us. We know one female from each tribe goes at the double boot. Kelly and Yve are still victims of the swap, just an episode later, and the Blackwhale sandwich is still in tact...

This scenario points to Tyrone as the EP5 boot.

Is there game logic that would support a Tyrone boot?


Krautboy

"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-07-10 at 03:25 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-07-10 AT 05:15 PM (EST)

The La Flors have seen that Tyrone was given prominent slots in the challenges, and performed well (at least in some of them). And if Holly is going to make a move/be recruited to jump ship, she's more likely to direct the old La Flors toward Tyrone and Yve instead of Dan, whom she was trying to save the last time. *mistake corrected in post below

So those two things could be factors. They go for Tyrone first because he seems like more of a threat, then Yve next time. It would make sense to me, in fact I guessed your same order up above.

"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by Krautboy on 10-07-10 at 03:38 PM
Hey Brownroach, as usual I like your reasoning...and I just read your earlier post, so it seems that we independently came to the same conclusion...

And add to that...TDT also seems to be thinking along the same lines:

TDT wrote:
"On the other tribe (new Espada), it's an even split, with NaOnka, Ben, Chase and Alina taking on Holly, Yve, Dan and Tyrone. The problem there, for Dan, Tyrone and Yve, is that Holly was on the losing side of the alliance split in old Espada, and may greet the newcomers (yes, even NaOnka) as her incoming saviors. Tyrone would appear to be in the worst situation, as the nominal leader of old Espada, with a physical presence that may intimidate Ben and Chase. Then again, Holly has no apparent love for the (invisible) Yve either. Either could be the first casualty of the switch.

I'm in pretty good company with BR and TDT, so I feel good about a Tyrone Boot for EP5...


Krautboy

"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-07-10 at 05:12 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-07-10 AT 05:17 PM (EST)

And it always feels good to be in your company where logic is concerned KB.

I just realized I got confused: Holly didn't try to save Dan, she tried to save Jimmy T. She wanted Dan out. So I don't know what she'd do, I guess go along with whoever La Flor wants out, as TDT is saying.


"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by CTgirl on 10-07-10 at 05:08 PM
OFG Theory has been proven over and over so we can also see how much Tyrone is featured in promos over the weekend.

Here is one shot of him from the coming attractions:

Marty is saying, "Probst: And Marty's million dollar dream ride...Marty : It would take something extraordinary, completely whacked out to disturb my plan.Probst: ...grinds to a halt. Probst : Drop your buffs. It is a brand new game. Marty: I was definitely not counting on this."

So yeah, not so good for Marty, but it's even worse for Tyrone!

"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by Belle Book on 10-07-10 at 08:30 PM
That's what I was thinking -- Tyrone goes in Episode 5, then the double boot with poor Kelly B. & Yve, and finally Jill.

I can see some game logic to support a Tyrone boot. Chase and Benry are strong players in their own right, so they don't need a strong player and potential leader for the original Espadas like Tyrone around. Apparently Chase and Fabio each form side alliances with Holly and Jane and since Holly's on the same tribe with Chase, it looks like he recruits her. Since she's kind of on the outside of the original Espada tribe, she'd be easy to flip. She might want to get rid of Dan, but she could see the wisdom of going with getting rid of Tyrone first.


"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by Krautboy on 10-07-10 at 10:20 PM
Belle: Looks like we are all coming to a consensus...


Krautboy

"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by emydi on 10-08-10 at 10:05 AM
I was thinking it was Tyrone too... but KB can you explain to me the sandwich spoiler. I'm lost there, I never understood it from the beginning. Thanks
"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-08-10 at 10:35 AM
Nobody was ever sure but most people came to the conclusion that it must mean the last three pre-merge boots go La Flor, Espada, LaFlor. If true, it would have to be as per the new tribal configuration because there's only one more original LaFlor slated to leave pre-merge.


"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by emydi on 10-08-10 at 12:00 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-08-10 AT 12:08 PM (EST)

ok? what an odd spoiler clue.

So from what we know of the new tribes and the last 4 to go pre merge, the next one to go has to be Espada which means Tyrone bc the double boot is Ep 6 and it has to be Yve the female Espada bc we know two females go in double boot episode. Yve is the meat to New La Flor's Kelly No Shin and Jill pieces of bread.

However, I'm still not convinced that it's Kelly NS next week and not Jill...I understand the reasoning of booting KNS but I don't think the threat of a 4-4 tie will be that much of an issue with New LF next week. Ties rarely seem to happen anymore and from KNS's vote for Shannon, New LF knows she won't push things to save an Espada. Why would she?

In this week's web promo, Brenda is seen dissing on Marty and we know that Marty and Jill are targeted and Marty saves himself--by giving Sash the HII (because Jane tells all!) So they get Jill in Ep 6 and then Marty is "safe" in Ep 7 protected by Sash and Fabio likes Jane so they get rid of KNS when they can pre merge bc someone has to bring up the fact that they jury may start at F12.


ETA: If the Sandwich isn't a factor then it could be any of Tyrone Jill or KNS. There's no real help on the IC winner from the web promo.

"RE: Tyrone?"
Posted by Krautboy on 10-08-10 at 03:38 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-09-10 AT 02:52 PM (EST)

Blackwhale has been accurate in all his "number clues" except that his information about Kelly and Alina got confused.( From what I remember, BW said that his source talked about the two girls who found the HII clue in EP1 by their water supply, and since both Kelly B. and Alina were there together, that's where the mix-up came.)

So, I think there is still good reason to believe the BW Sandwich clue was based on reliable info, and as BR explained LEL must relate to the post swap tribes...in which case Tyrone is the only "E" that is available in EP5, because Missyae has told us the double boot is EP6 and Yve must go as one of the two females botted in EP6.


Krautboy

"Jill "
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-08-10 at 10:13 PM
Tonight Missyae bumped the Jill thread over at Survivor Sucks and wrote:

10/8 "This player needs a little bump. They have some good stuff coming soon!!"

When someone asked, "You mean her boot?" Missyae responded: "Her boot would not equal - good stuff."

"RE: EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 10-12-10 at 04:02 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-12-10 AT 04:06 AM (EST)

Krautboy,
I applaud you for sticking to that sandwich clue and finally extorting some sense from it. I think you're right.

The next episode, the double boot, will feature consecutive tribals with perhaps an individual immunity won by the first tribe to go to TC, as in HvV? I wonder if BW's source was clear about the order of the double tribal.

About this swap, I am on board with jessiiiek's spec at MESS. He specs that instead of an alternating pickem, each captain gets to pick only from the other tribe. Holly gets 4 and Brenda 3. That would explain why in the promo the new members are all moving to be met and hugged at the same time.

I added that I think Jeff will tell Holly to balance her pics gender wise, as she has 4 to pick. Brenda could be given the decision of 2 men or 2 women, as she has an odd number to pick, and that would go with the Captain Brenda choosing girl power clue.

In support of this theory, Brenda has two main allies that end up on Espada, Chase and Nay, and her idol. Even if Holly picks Chase first, which is quite likely, I think Brenda would immediately secure Nay. Brenda's team is well explained if Holly is allowed to pick two men, Benry and Chase, plus two women, Alina and Na Onka. Solid choices for challenges.

In turn, Brenda picks Marty for her one guy, very solid choice, and Jill and Jane, two more solid choices. Picks Jane instead of Tyrone, and immediately the ladies rule Marty's new tribe.

This also explains how Holly loses her one ally, Jane, and gets stuck with Dan, whom she would not choose.

The captains will be chosen by "rocks" (per missyae), so probably the old blind draw of a rock, reveal, whoever gets a colored rock is a captain. They did that in Samoa for a reward challenge post merge. I think it was the coconuts falling through netting, playing for the village feast.

"RE: EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by emydi on 10-12-10 at 10:07 AM
funny though how the two pre merge boots from New LF are both women...I'm still not convinced that Kelly NS goes in double boot ep 6 and not ep 7 right before merge. But I'm probably wrong on that.

If Kelly NS goes in ep 6, the women would still have a 4-3 majority. We know now Jill may be up to some shenanigans with Marty v. women maybe she Dolly/Christy's herself right out of the game. Esp. after Marty "saves" himself by giving HII to Sash.

"RE: EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 10-12-10 at 07:08 PM
>>> funny though how the two pre merge boots from New LF are both women...

it is funny that both boots are women, except that one --KB-- was very much on the hit list already, and Jill is not doing the women's alliance approach, but is solid with Marty.

missyae said that the person who goes when the idol is passed to Sash was probably not going home that night. missyae has also tied Jill and Marty's fates together, but I don't have that quote in front of me. I think there is enough to surmise that Jill is the casualty of the idol -- that she goes because the majority is afraid that Marty or Sash has the idol so to avoid a bounce they vote a third person.

Which means that if not for an idol, most likely a man would have gone. I don't know of any info that tells us whether it's Jill or Kelly B in the double boot. The sandwich theory doesn't help there if you're using the names of the swapped tribes, as it's a LF either way.

"RE: EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-13-10 at 12:51 PM
>>>missyae has also tied Jill and Marty's fates together, but I don't have that quote in front of me.

As I recall, Missyae said something to the effect of "Marty takes care of Marty."

"RE: EP5 Boot Discussion (Spoiler Alert)"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-12-10 at 04:40 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-12-10 AT 04:42 PM (EST)

That sounds like a very plausible scenario for establishing the new tribes.

It also gives more fuel to the notion that Kelly B will be the first boot from new la Flor, since Brenda probably hoped Kelly B would get picked for Espada, and she may rather boot Kelly B over one of the new tribemates that she herself just hired for LaFlor.

"The Boot"
Posted by Georjanna on 10-13-10 at 12:03 PM
... at 10:35am on 10/13/10

Missyae: Tonight's boot is Tyronne.


"RE: The Boot"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-13-10 at 12:52 PM
Thanks, and way to go KB for sticking with the Sandwich theory!!!

I wonder if Blackwhale will resurface with more info now?

"RE: The Boot"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-13-10 at 12:52 PM
Oh good, becausse we alreaddy figurred that out.