I find it fascinating to watch how different players handle adversity on Survivor. When you are in the minority alliance in Survivor, there are 2 ways to go.

1) Stick together and try and get someone on the majority alliance to change sides.

2) Turn on your alliiance and beg the majority alliance to keep you over your allies.

Choosing path 1 can get you to the end game if it works. Choosing path 2 may get you an extra week on the show, but thats about it.

Earlier this year when Foa Foa lost the IC, Liz and Natalie had concluded that the guys were going to vote one of them out. They could have attacked this problem by working together and trying to get a guy to work with them. Instead, all we heard was that they would vote against each other and see who the guys decided to keep.

Now, we see Foa Fia in tough straights. However, they are sticking together and it looks like they may pull this off. Last year JT did the same thing.

The existing members of Foa Foa has my admiration for playing the game to win

• RE: Sticking Together,dabo, 11:09 PM, 11-15-09
• RE: Sticking Together,michel, 08:52 AM, 11-16-09
  • RE: Sticking Together,esquire, 01:30 PM, 11-17-09
    • RE: Sticking Together,michel, 07:29 PM, 11-17-09
      • RE: Sticking Together,Brownroach, 12:21 PM, 11-19-09
• RE: Sticking Together,SquidProQuo, 12:03 PM, 11-19-09
  • RE: Sticking Together,SquidProQuo, 12:49 PM, 11-19-09
    • RE: Sticking Together,yucca, 01:55 PM, 11-19-09
      • RE: Sticking Together,emydi, 02:06 PM, 11-19-09
        • RE: Sticking Together,SquidProQuo, 02:10 PM, 11-19-09

Interesting thoughts. The Foa Foa pretty much have to stick together, if any of them jumps ship it is just playing the losing game another way. The Galu factions are, instead, still scrambling for supremacy amongst themseves.

Continuing to play the game as long as they are still in it, love it. Nothing is more boring than going "Oh, well, let's see which of us gets Pagonged next."

Nice thoughts but I must point out that the minority alliance rarely has a choice between those 2 options. The choice is theirs if and only if the majority opens the door. If the majority sticks together, it's lights out for the minority alliance.

What has worked in the past isn't turning on your alliance and begging when in the minority but rather actively finding new allies on the other side.

- Vee and Chris both saw their allies voted out but worked with members of the majority that were at the bottom of the totem pole to flip the game.

- Danni went the other way: Seeing that Rafe was secretly in charge, she helped him get rid of troublesome allies until she flipped the game on him.

Sticking together for a minority alliance shouldn't work because all you are offering someone is the bottom spot on your side. Terry tried to keep his numbers but Danielle, Bruce, Shane and Cirie, at different times, realized they had no future by jumping ship.

There's another way to look at it: If a member of the majority (Shambo for example to stay in spoiler, Amber for old-timers) jumps ship and ends up facing the jury against a member of the minority, where do they find jury votes? Their old allies will hold a grudge and the other members of the minority will vote for their own. Look at what happened to Neleh, Twila and Stephenie or consider that Jonathan and Erinn could never have won Cook Islands and Tocantins respectively.

>Nice thoughts but I must point
>out that the minority alliance
>rarely has a choice between
>those 2 options. The choice
>is theirs if and only
>if the majority opens the
>door. If the majority sticks
>together, it's lights out for
>the minority alliance.

I respectfully disagree. The minority alliance has a choice on what strategy to pursue. They can spend their time trying to convince the majority alliance to keep them over their former teammate, or they can try and convince someone on the majorityt alliance to switch sides. If the majority alliance sticks together, then the minority alliance goes home, but that doesn't mean the minority alliance didn't have a choice. It just means their strategy didn't work.

>
>There's another way to look at
>it: If a member of
>the majority (Shambo for example
>to stay in spoiler, Amber
>for old-timers) jumps ship and
>ends up facing the jury
>against a member of the
>minority, where do they find
>jury votes? Their old allies
>will hold a grudge and
>the other members of the
>minority will vote for their
>own. Look at what happened
>to Neleh, Twila and Stephenie
>or consider that Jonathan and
>Erinn could never have won
>Cook Islands and Tocantins respectively.
>
I completely agree with you here. That is why it is almost always a losing proposition to be the person that switches sides. There is nothing more hated than a teammate that you think has betrayed you.

Thats what makes the Final TC interesting every year. People that were strong allies until the final 4 or final 5 or final 6, turn on each other and then contestants that we always thought were close friends get hurt and get revenge during the final TC

LAST EDITED ON 11-17-09 AT 07:37 PM (EST)

If you agree that it's foolish for a majority member to go with the minority then the minority spending "their time trying to convince the majority alliance to keep them over their former teammate, or... try and convince someone on the majority alliance to switch sides" could be useless.

Again, it works only if the majority isn't tight, if they somehow open the door. Pagonging is the simplest way to go and the minority can't do much to prevent it if the majority has their act together.

I'll go even further: If every member of the minority shows that they are together, that they are united in trust, friendhip, alliance, what have you, they are actually hurting their chances. I don't think it's a coincidence that Vee distanced herself from Sean and Rob at the merge (did she actually vote against Rob? Can't remember) and that Chris voted against Sarge. It showed the majority that they were ready to work with them and, better yet, that they had betrayed allies also, possibly costing them votes.

It was certainly not a coincidence that Jenna, Sandra, Chris, Danni, Bob and even Terry only made progress once they were isolated.

The minority has to explore all options, start like we saw Foa Foa doing: Talk to everyone, search for cracks, understand that offering a voting bloc could be usefull in certain circumstances, detrimental in others, stick with your allies, ditch them if you see a better option.

Path 2 worked for Vee, Sandra, Chris and Bob.
Path 1 has only worked for JT.

A player as to understand that Survivor is an individual game.

Path 1 for Yul? I can't count him because he had been aligned with Jonathan before.

If every member of the minority shows that they are together, that they are united in trust, friendhip, alliance, what have you, they are actually hurting their chances.

Jake in Thailand recognized that. Once they finally merged he told Ken and Penny that the three of them would have to try to infiltrate the Chuays separately.

Hi Esquire, thanks for the interesting discussion. "Sticking Together" could actually be the key to tonight's episode and the fate of the entire season! And while Survivor is an individual game, tonight's episode is a perfect example of where your fate can also be closely tied to the fate of the tribe.

What you mention reminds me of the Prisoner's Dilemma and Game Theory...sometimes it's actually smarter to cooperate but most likely people will not .

LAST EDITED ON 11-19-09 AT 01:02 PM (EST)

P.S. Just thought of something regarding tonight's tie and the theme of sticking together. While on the surface it's an even tie for Galu vs. Fao Fao and it's in both tribe's best interests to stick together vs. flip, depending on who wins IC (and also whether someone finds the HII), the people on one tribe could be at a huge statistical disadvantage when it comes to the revote and the threat of the purple rock. This could be a huge factor in weighing whether or not to flip this week.

E.g., Let's say Jaison wins immunity, Natalie has the HII, and RussHell is the initial Galu target. That would only leave Shambo and Mick if it should come to the purple rock -- very bad odds! Meanwhile, in this scenario the remaining Galu would have a 1 in 4 chance of pulling the purple rock. Either way, you don't want the purple rock....but it appears that this week having the HII and IC on your tribe's side could actually be a "negative."

The other thing I was thinking about is, if you're playing a game of chicken with a forced tie and want to "prod" someone on the other side into flipping on the revote but you can't convince them in advance, one strategy could be to target the potential flipper on the 1st vote. Total spec, but here's how it could play out: Tonight RussHell and FF want to send Laura home. They're hoping that John will flip and they've made overtures to him in advance but they can't get a firm agreement. So here's what they do: They target John on the 1st vote to scare him, then during the 2 min. pow wow before the revote, they offer him a deal -- they'll switch to Laura if he agrees to vote her out. This would actually help John (or whoever the potential flipper is) to "save face" -- it's hard to fault him for flipping in this scenario. Could even be a ruse set up in advance so he won't look like as much of a traitor.

LAST EDITED ON 11-19-09 AT 01:56 PM (EST)

RE: ( The other thing I was thinking about is, if you're playing a game of chicken with a forced tie and want to "prod" someone on the other side into flipping on the revote but you can't convince them in advance, one strategy could be to target the potential flipper on the 1st vote. Total spec, but here's how it could play out: Tonight RussHell and FF want to send Laura home. They're hoping that John will flip and they've made overtures to him in advance but they can't get a firm agreement. So here's what they do: They target John on the 1st vote to scare him, then during the 2 min. pow wow before the revote, they offer him a deal -- they'll switch to Laura if he agrees to vote her out. This would actually help John (or whoever the potential flipper is) to "save face" -- it's hard to fault him for flipping in this scenario. Could even be a ruse set up in advance so he won't look like as much of a traitor.)

I don't think that would work though. If there's a tie on the first vote - on the revote I think they can only vote for the 2 people that tied on the first vote.

you're right yucca...then if they don't break the tie, the two people who were tied are exempt (along with II necklace holder) from picking a rock

This was different than in Marquesas bc only 4 left but it actually worked out that the only person who didn't get votes was voted out...that's why they changed the tie breaker at 4 to fire...at 4 you can't give the people in a tie immunity from the rock like you can if it's 5-5.

LAST EDITED ON 11-19-09 AT 02:11 PM (EST)

Gotcha, makes sense - thanks Yucca. The fire tie breaker was a great idea, although it's funny after so many seasons that some still don't bother to learn how to make a fire.