Right, as you say ... missyae says Erik should have caught on that they were gunning for him. Foa Foa will vote for Erik.

I imagine that Jeff says the HII spiel every TC; it's just that the editors take it out when it has no relevance and is a time waster. They ought to show it this next time and possibly thereafter.

This is a prime example of why I should wait until the experts tell me what I'm seeing. I could have sworn that the focus in this shot was on Mick.

Ah, well ...

G

Eh, it could be Mick and it could just be where the sun happened to be shining, but Natalie is practically glowing in that pic.

Georjanna, you're not losing it -- I just rewatched the preview and there is definitely a shot of everyone toasting at the merge and Mick appears to be at the "head" of the table, so to speak. But I don't think it's the very 1st merge shot, which is what TDT is referring to.

Also, there is a new web promo out with some new footage, and Natalie appears to be a lot more prominently positioned in that one, so TDT could very well be referring to that one.

Here's the transcript of the new web promo (thanks to Survivor Fever):

Announcer: When you're outnumbered...

Natalie: We have four people and they have 8

Announcer: ...and outplayed...

Russell <in confessional> : Keep swinging, eventually you're going to hit home runs.

Announcer: ...you're only hope of survival is a merge.

Russell: I'm not nervous about numbers. I'm too good for this game.

Announcer: Now everyone's scrambling.

Shambo <in confessional> : I'm done with her, I have no use for her.

Russell: You have to outwit them.

Laura: It's going to have to be a big blindside.

Russell: I think she should go first.

Dave: He's a crafty dude.

Announcer: Can the losers pull off a shocking upset?

Russell: We already have our plan down!

Interesting that in the original preview, Laura was pushing for Shambo to go....but now in this new web promo, she's saying it's going to have to be a big blindside, so RussHell (or someone else? Kelly?) has obviously gotten to her and changed her mind on the boot target, because Shambo wouldn't be a big blindside.

Squid,

Thank you! I'm relieved to know that someone else had the same impression of the second merge 'portrait' that I did. Thank you, too, for all of the heavy lifting you've done this Season. I've come to rely on you to bring us the latest. And your compelling analyses to go with it.

As for what happens this week:

I have no idea whether the 'unexpected master manipulator' is a figment of CBS's imagination, a flash in an Episode pan or a new force in the Game. Or who it might be: he or she could be any one of the Foa Foa other than Russell. But if the manipulator is a Galu then I think that Brett is the most likely candidate. So I'll leave who does what with who to whom this week up to those of you with an eye for detail far better than mine. But, there is one thing in the transcript that you brought us that really struck me - Russell: We already have our plan down!.

And I've added the emphasis because it is the first time that I recall hearing or seeing Russell use anything other than I and my in the same sentence with plan. So I wonder just how broad that we - and Russell's vulnerability - is?

My luck, the we will turn out to be a royal one.

G

Darn! I wish that I could figure out how to make screen caps. I have Windows Media on my computer and a handy little key that says "Print Screen" and that 'Help' assures me is there to capture the active window's content. But, it doesn't appear to do anything when I hit it.

Anyway ...

I agree. Natalie is glowing. But, when I watched the preview initially, my impression was that the camera was following Mick. And, advancing the video frame-by-frame (as I am right now), that is still my impression.

As the two tribes 'merge' on the beach, the first shot is of Mick in profile to center left (with John to his right) and Natalie face-front to center right. But as the camera continues to record the scene, it 'moves' Natalie off screen right and stays with a still-centered Mick's profile and ascending fist. It closes with a shot from behind him: John still to his right and Erik (I think) at his back with an embracing arm over Mick's shoulder. Mick's fist is now fully raised. And, as though in emphasis, Brett is now face-front ... applauding. And Natalie has become a shoulder.

So, my feeling is that Mick and Natalie share this first (of two) merge close-ups. But the scene is Mick's.

And I don't think that there can be any question about the subject of the second, follow-up portrait. With twelve citizens of a new tribe present, that is a long look at Foa-Foa's Chief.

But, I don't know if the whole thing is of short-term, mid-term or long-term relevance. Or of no importance at all. It may be, though, relevant to remember that Galu was a tribe that - although its members, individually, didn't always agree with Russell Swan's decisions - as a group, bought into the concept of a Chief. And none of them bought Shambo in the role. I don't think that they bought Russell Hantz in it either.

But Mick, with a bit of what makes both Russells tick in his makeup, may have finally found his constituency ...

G

Basically, the game hits midgame relevance at the merge, challenge threats are challenge threats are challenge threats. Forget previous tribal designations, it's all individual game and social play from here on.

I hope you're right about Mick, actually, but he hasn't shown much game up to now.

Georjanna,

You have an artist's eye for detail and perspective, combined with great intuition. I appreciate your input, and would like to see Mick take it all. Even RussH seems to defer to him when he makes comments like (paraphrasing) "I am sure I can get Mick to go along with...".

Georjanna, here's the Mick shot you are talking about. It's at the end of merge sequence where we see Natalie 1st.

To Dabo's point about it being a very different game now, I'd love to see Mick go on a challenge run. And, even though he hasn't really showed any hints of playing up the McDreamy thing so far, it could definitely work on the Galu yoga girls

P.S. There's an interesting shot of pretty boy John and Mick in the press photos...I have a feeling that John is going to be threatened by Mick, esp. if he finds out he's a doctor.

Bringing over a couple insider clips that seem to support the idea that Natalie is the Unexpected Master Manipulator:

* When Mick votes for Liz at TC: "I feel terrible about blindsiding you like this. This is strictly strategic, and that's it. We have a soft alliance over at Galu, and a lot of it hinges on Natalie's play. That's all this is about.

* Liz after getting voted out: "Strategically, it makes sense for Natalie to stay, in case there is a merge....Diplomatically, Natalie has made some strides with Laura, so it's a very strategic move on Foa Foa's part. In that sense it's not that surprising they voted me out."

These nuggets, coupled with all the promo and press shots of Natalie schmoozing the Galu girls, seem to confirm that she's the unexpected manipulator. That said, though, if it is indeed someone on Galu, I do really like Georjanna's take on it being Brett -- especially since he's been so hidden up to now.

Actually, Natalie is my pick for sole survivor after seeing the transition to come...

RussHELL and Mick are misdirection.

LAST EDITED ON 11-02-09 AT 05:47 PM (EST)

I agree. The editing hid Natalie at first and now she is getting the build-up:

For me this was the key shot from the merge feast. Not only is "one tribe" plastered on her, but it's an odd shot in that there are other players in the frame but all at angles or in shadow, and Nat's face just pops out. The Mick shot is very nice, and we are glad Mick is saved, but it has more context to it (shows more about the scene (drinking) and Russell's face is clear. It doesn't exist solely to focus on Mick's face, even though it's definitely featuring Mick.

LAST EDITED ON 11-02-09 AT 08:18 PM (EST)

"You are one tribe now."

Ha! It reads one thing, "You are one tribe now" but it's says quite another. It's the equivalent of the long shot of Bob! I will be totally shocked if she doesn't win now.

Everything has truly changed.