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Original Message
"What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by michel on 09-29-09 at 05:50 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-29-09 AT 05:53 PM (EST)

This week, we don’t know which team goes to TC. We don't have a single screencap of a second challenge so that leads me to consider that both tribes could go to TC.

CBS provides clues that could contain the boot story, one for each tribe.

RUSSELL STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN HIS CONTROL,
AS THE TRIBE TURNS ON ONE OF HIS ALLIES
ON "SURVIVOR: SAMOA"

A clever lie turns a tribe against one of its most harmless members.

Meanwhile, at the reward challenge, the chief of one tribe makes a controversial decision that lands him in the crossfire back at camp

There is the TV Guide teaser that says: "At tribal council, one castaway is voted out of the game."
That goes against double boot but do they know or are just using copy/paste for that line?

In seasons with 20 players, we've always had at least 2 double boots so another double elimination is possible even if we had 2 people go out of the game last week.

For Foa Foa's TC, the clues point to a war between Russell and Jaison but neither should go home. A harmless tribe mate is in trouble. That sounds like Natalie, Ashley or Liz. Would the editors have completely ignored Natalie if she were to be booted so early? Liliana and Jacquie were good looking, strong women that were ignored but their tribes hadn’t gone to TC in the first 2 episodes. I’m thinking Natalie has been ignored because there will be time to show her a bit later. I think Ashley and Liz are more in danger and that goes with the black and white pictures we’ve seen. Mick was also shown in black and white and he is also quite harmless. Hummm...

Despite this, I think Jaison is successful in bringing down one of Russell’s allies. It has to be Ben. Is Ben safe? Probst endorsed him as a major character but so was Ace. Maybe 3 episodes are enough. Ben is considered to be a good provider so that could keep him safe.

What makes it seem like he could be going is that Betsy and Mike both said they liked Ben. It suggests they got to know a different side of him in Loser Lodge where the stress of the game disappeared.

So, when/if Foa Foa goes to TC, I’m inclined to think that Ben goes home.

In Galu, the tribe wins reward, Russell chooses pillows over tarp and the tribe is angry.

Who is on the chopping block?

The edit has shown that Shannon should be the first to go but insider clips tell a different story. The tribe was impressed by her strength in the challenge, everyone had problems catching fish, not only her, and Shannon is well liked. There has to be a reason for the slight of hand and I propose that Shannon has to stay deep into the game based on many factors:
-Jeff’s endorsement that we will like her.
- The care given her edit on a tribe that has been ignored
- The possibility that she joins Russell post-merge as she was part of the puppet master’s pre-game plans.
So, if not Shannon, then who could it be?

Monica is perceived as their weakest link. She hasn’t received much presence but she is one of the few Galu whom we have seen in both episodes. Is it courtesy editing or the beginning of a story arc? Impossible to tell at this point but I think she won’t be a target. We know they’ll have won 3 of the 4 challenges before the next IC and they can sit her out of a challenge per episode so her presence isn’t detrimental… Unless she screws up royally in the IC.

Yasmin is not well liked and the tribe feels that she may have formed a cross-tribal alliance. She also seems to be Russell’s favorite and splitting a pair is sound strategy. She should be considered a boot option. However, her confessional about the wood being tougher than the hood seems to establish Yasmin as a quitter. The absence of a tarp and the upcoming rain would be too much for her. If she’s miserable now wait until she gets 10 inches of rain on her head!

Russell is worried. Russell has been worried from the start because of the necklace he’s been given but, now, Ben’s assault injured his ankle. Is Russell paranoid or is the tribe really after him? One thing to note is that Galu feels superior to Foa Foa. Yasmin wasn’t the only one thinking that it was like taking candy from a baby. If Galu feels that much stronger, if they are tired of Russell’s leadership, they could very well decide to boot him.

When/If Galu goes to TC, I’m thinking Russell S. will be booted.

Of course that could all change if I've missed something or if we get new information.


This way, I could get 2 wrong in one week!!

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by CTgirl on 09-29-09 at 06:12 PM
My SOTS is mostly written and I'll post it later on tonight, but this thread gives me pause. I have pegged Ben as the boot from FoaFoa which I won't explain here. I did rewatch Jeff's interview with Dalton Ross where he said Ben was a big character. In hindsight, he just said that Ben would have a big impact on the viewers. His story could easily be over tonight. But there was something niggling in the back of my mind about Galu. In a voice-over Jeff says that they are overconfident. One promo asks if they will continue to be victorious? Dave says they are lean and mean and ready. The insider videos show them to think that they are a better team than FoaFoa. It didn't cross my mind that Galu would go to tribal (I thought they were just putting things in place for the next story arc) but now I think its a definite possibility that they go to tribal too. I'm glad you brought this up!

Now I've got to go look at the vidcaps again!!

"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by michel on 09-29-09 at 06:54 PM
So, you mean it's my turn to give you a headache!!

I should point out that vidcaps are the flaw in my plan. Ben and Russell are nowhere to be seen in the promos that we have.

I just considered something else: If Jaison goes after Ben, it has to be because the calm lawyer cannot stand the bigot. If he is successful, wouldn't have Liz been happy about how racism was handled on her tribe? Does Ben have to outlast Liz to cause her anger in an interview that CBS couldn't have been happy to see?

I hate to back-pedal so I'll leave it as a question mark for now and wait for other opinions and your SOTS.


"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by CTgirl on 09-29-09 at 08:06 PM
*takes two excedrin*

Don't over analyze! There could be other bigots out there (like RussHell or almost anyone on Galu!)


"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 09-29-09 at 08:46 PM
That's true. Although I just saw that TDT has Liz down as a possible early boot. Not sure if the interview is his only basis; that's all he mentions.

Also he has Ashley as SAFE this week, no reason given, which surprised me.

Ben and Natalie are the two he has "at risk" for Ep 3. He also notes that Natalie had a lot of pre-premiere face time ... hmm.

I suppose I should not discount that Liz could initiate a clever lie and get bounced for it when she gets caught. Could happen.


"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by CTgirl on 09-29-09 at 08:57 PM
Natalie and Jaison are now both listed as "unclear." I could've written at length on why either one of them might be the boot this week, but I had to pick one bootee and go with it.

Natalie is going to get burned by RussHell - Betsy predicted it in the first episode. It could be this week.

Jaison could go down as the instigator against Ben. It seems like he's too strong to get voted out at this point, but RussHell is playing by different rules.

Thursday night will be interesting!

"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 09-29-09 at 09:17 PM
CTgirl,
my bad, I must have seen the Natalie box wrong. I still had the TDT page up (not refreshed), and she was "unclear" when I wrote.

Re Jaison - I know Russell is playing unorthodox, but I just cannot see the tribe cutting loose Jaison when they're fighting against Erik and other powerhouses. Just as Jaison knows that the tribe needs Russell. I think both of them will fight this war by targeting subordinates who bring a vote to the table.

The big guys will be on the block in 2-3 more TC's, and that's when they need a voting bloc.

Meanwhile, the women are at risk if Ben stays. But will they choose solidarity, or will they campaign against each other?


"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by Brownroach on 09-30-09 at 10:28 AM
Also he has Ashley as SAFE this week, no reason given, which surprised me.

TDT has had Ashley as SAFE since Ep 2, when we knew she was safe because there were caps of her in the Ep 3 challenge. I think he just neglected to update her status for this week.


A tribe glows in Brooklyn

"TDT update"
Posted by Brownroach on 09-30-09 at 12:24 PM
Apparently he does believe Ashley is safe for Ep 3: TDT has updated Ashley's "Reasons For Survival" column with a link to a Sucks poster who says that Ashley and family are currently on a 2-3 week cruise (meaning that she wasn't planning to do any post-boot interviews this week).


A tribe glows in Brooklyn

"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 09-29-09 at 06:55 PM
CT, I've been thinking Ben too, FWIW.
I've never seen a double boot episode where CBS didn't announce it. It's just something they like to promo.

I vote for boring immunity challenge.
Also, recall that one teaser says "the reward challenge" and I doubt it would be called that if reward were just a component.

Of course they are putting something in the promos to suggest that Galu is in danger. but is too much yoga the best they can do?


"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by Georjanna on 09-29-09 at 07:03 PM
Did they not once create a Challenge that featured double (one per tribe) Individual Immunities as a prelude to double Tribal Councils?

Or, am I dreaming again.

Note: If I'm not, it could explain why we have no tell-tale Vidcaps of the IC.

"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 09-29-09 at 07:34 PM
yes, they have, but they have NEVER hidden it. It's good for ratings to advertise it. They care more about ratings than confusing the spoilers.


"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 09-30-09 at 10:42 AM
I'm wondering if it could be a combined RC/IC challenge again this week?
"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by dabo on 10-01-09 at 12:11 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-09 AT 12:11 PM (EST)

Another one? Actually, that would make sense if they are planning for two Tribals next week. It would give them a little more time this week to pay some attention to players (as it's turned out this season about half the Galu tribe) who haven't yet gotten much air time.

"I just hope"
Posted by emydi on 10-01-09 at 02:04 PM
it isn't another medivac before IC with no TC at all but I'm hoping that the clues about FoaF and OFG timing post (great job by the way, OFG) is correct and there indeed is a TC for FoaF

Also, with the weather info from OFG (which TDT links to on his page) that the 2nd medivac is not quite yet bc the rains haven't hit yet...

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by dabo on 10-01-09 at 02:25 PM
What I don't get is how heavy rains could result in a med. evac. for dehydration. Both med. evac.s this season were reportedly because of dehydration. Rain water doesn't need to be boiled, just collect it and drink it. Sucks not having fire and being cold and miserable because of endless rain for a long while, but how this results in another dehydration med. evac. I just don't understand.
"RE: I just hope"
Posted by vince3 on 10-01-09 at 02:30 PM
Probably: they won't collect the rain on the heavy days, and then the lighter rain will prevent them from making a fire and won't be enough to collect for them all to drink........
"RE: I just hope"
Posted by emydi on 10-01-09 at 02:38 PM
I'm not saying that the medivac bc of dehydratoin is after the rain...just that it may be bc the rains are so terrible.

That's why I'm concerned it might be tonite with no IC footage...possibly Yasmin medivacing out? could last week complaints have been set up for tonite?

We do know that the rains cause friction on Galu bc RussSwell picks the bedding and not tarp tonite. I thought maybe that RusSwell was medivaced but I think he leaves the first TC when rains are going on bc of his bonehead move tonite.

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by dabo on 10-01-09 at 03:10 PM
Ah, I totally understand Russ S. being a boot target because of his leadership decisions.

Two medical evacuations back-to back? Galu doesn't seem to be suffering much as yet. What little we've been shown of their politics is basically plus-minus camp conditions. No one there really seems to be at any health risk (barring injuries).

Yasmin may be unequiped for living in this contrived situation but she seems pretty healthy.

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-01-09 at 03:15 PM
I don't think it will be tonight emy, because Probst said somewhere -- not sure where, will try to find it -- that one of the medevacs was a very tense, scary situation, which makes me think they will tease that one in the previews when the time comes (obviously he didn't mean Mike).


A tribe glows in Brooklyn

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by emydi on 10-01-09 at 03:20 PM
ok thanks, I don't remember reading that anywhere. I hope it doesn't happen either bc I hate No TC eps
"RE: I just hope"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-01-09 at 03:16 PM
Does Mike count as 1 of the 2 med-vacs this season? i.e. should we expect 1 more, or 2 more?

Here are 3 quotes I could find where Jeff discusses the weather and/or med-vacs -- none of them say explicitly that it's solely the rain that causes them. Sounds to me like it could be a combination of factors leading to the med-vacs:

1)EW: Jeff: Survivor: Samoa. Well the first thing that comes to mind is the weather. Between the combination of the heat and the rain, dehydration plays a huge role. That would be capital letters followed by an OMG.

2)IGN: Jeff Probst: A very aggressive season from the participants and from Samoa. We lost a couple of people to evacuations and we emerged with, I think, one of the most notorious villains.

3)From OFG's excellent post: "Samoa is very beautiful - and it kicked the a.s.s. of two people to the point where they had to be evacuated," Probst told Canwest News Service in a long, wide-ranging conversation. "It was hot, and then it rained. And it rained for about a week. They didn't have fire. And they couldn't get water. It was hard. It was definitely hard."

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by Brownroach on 10-01-09 at 03:20 PM
Here's another (this is the one I was referring to in my post above):

http://tvwatch.people.com/2009/09/24/jeff-probst-on-russell-survivors-most-notorious-villain-ever/

In Samoa we had 115 degrees every day and a period where for a week it rained nonstop and they had no water. We had one of the scariest moments ever for me on one evacuation. I was really scared.



A tribe glows in Brooklyn

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-01-09 at 03:31 PM
Brownroach, here's another good quote I just found about how it was 1 of the scariest moments ever for Jeff. This quote implies that it could be an infection, not dehydration, that leads to 1 of the boots:

“It’s a physical season. We have two medical evacuations. Some people push themselves harder than their bodies can take, and our doctors are telling us that infections are spreading more now and these things are really happening. I remember James got pulled for having an infection in his finger to which I said, ‘We are going to lose one of our stars?’ And the doctor said, ‘He’s going to lose his hand,’” Probst says. “They say they are not changing their protocol but the world is changing. In Samoa we had 115 degrees every day and a period where for a week it rained nonstop and they had no water. We had one of the scariest moments ever for me on one evacuation. I was really scared.”

http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=124913&cat=2

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by emydi on 10-01-09 at 03:55 PM
looks like James may suffer the same fate in S20
see somerandomdouche post midway down page

http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/reply/5121888/t/Survivor-20-Game-and-Boot-Spoilers.html#reply-5121888

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by goldenmike4393 on 10-01-09 at 04:04 PM
I have a spoiler on James being medically evacuated in S20 (again)!!
"RE: I just hope"
Posted by emydi on 10-01-09 at 04:05 PM
any more info on why does his finger infection magically reappear after Cire Parvati and Amanda "accidentally" cut him?

I guess this belongs in the S20 thread!

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by Estee on 10-01-09 at 06:44 PM
Besides, I just checked the Sucks link and instantly had fourteen people cursing me out for being stupid enough to read their thread.
"RE: I just hope"
Posted by CTgirl on 10-01-09 at 04:12 PM
OFG mentioned in another thread (I think) that coral cuts are really bad and can easily get infected.

Conjecture here, maybe Yasmin quits and one of the stronger guys on Galu like Erik gets taken out with an infection. That along with an immunity loss and all of a sudden Galu isn't quite the strongest tribe anymore.

"RE: I just hope"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-01-09 at 05:41 PM
Good thought about a coral cut....maybe someone gets cut or hurt in today's water challenge, since it looks to be pretty physical. I can definitely see how lots of rain + 115 degree heat could turn into a nasty infection.
"RE: I just hope"
Posted by dabo on 10-01-09 at 03:36 PM
Well, first off, I don't expect medical precision from Probst about these type of things. But Mike was clearly pushed beyond his limits in that challenge and wound up in a discombobulated, disoriented condition. Medical personael decided to pull him from the game, so in my mind that counts, dehydration makes as much sense as anything else.
"RE: I just hope"
Posted by CTgirl on 10-01-09 at 04:13 PM
Mike said he was dehydrated in his interviews so I'd say that counts as one of med-evacs.
"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 10-01-09 at 06:04 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-09 AT 06:07 PM (EST)

Brownroach and Squid,
thanks for the new statements from Jeff. It does sound like infection may be looming again.

CT, yes it's true that coral cuts are notorious for becoming infected, more likely than not they will if not tended properly. Coral is a living animal. We know Erik is cut up by coral already, because he complains of it in the Insider clip. He may not be the only one. Sounds like fishing is a hazardous enterprise because the fish are near the reef and the water is shallow, hard to get clearance from the coral.

What Jeff says about the world changing re infections is right on. I said during Micronesia they are crazy to expose people to aggressive infections. There is so much fear of staph in Hawai'i, just acquiring it in daily life, and with all treatments available - and they let these guys get cut up and dirty, and swim when cut. Recipe for disaster, IMHO.

Good point that someone could QUIT and that wouldn't be a medivac.


"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by suzzee on 10-01-09 at 06:51 PM
Wasn't Chet's heel cut from coral or was it just something sharp? Either way his foot was infected according to him.
"RE: What If we don't have an Immunity Challenge this week?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 10-01-09 at 07:47 PM
yes, good memory, pretty sure it was coral.