If Sugar suspected that Kenny and Crystal are lying and really plan to take Susie to F3, she might be inclined to make a move with Matty.

But from the Insider clip it sounds like she feels quite secure with her K/C alliance. And Matty and Susie have offered her an alternate 3-person alliance.

So there's no incentive for Sugar to move to a 4-person alliance now, when she has two other options which both guarantee her F3.

LAST EDITED ON 11-24-08 AT 12:40 PM (EST)

This is what I'm envisioning right now:

Final 7 – Corinne goes next (pagoning continues)

Final 6 – Bob follows (pagonging is over)

Final 5 – Susie is out. I'm guessing Matty wins immunity here. Crystal, Kenny and Sugar vote for Susie. Matty may or may not vote for Susie but three votes gets Susie out. Sugar plays the idol, as it's her last opportunity to do so.

Final 4 – Kenny is out. Matty knows he has to win immunity again, and does. Matty convinces Crystal that Kenny needs to go, or Kenny will win the game. Sugar, not wanting to be stuck with *both* Matty and Kenny in the F3, tearfully goes along.

Final 3 - Crystal, Sugar and Matty. Matty wins, possibly 7-0.

Thanks Max and Brownroach for posting your thoughts. It's fun to speculate the end game scenarios and more fun to see if any of our predictions will come to fruition.

Yes this is fun, Scar, thanks for starting the thread.

I'm pretty well convinced that Sugar is one of the finalists. Both Charlie and Randy have nothing but bad things to say about her.

So, far with all of the scenarios presented, it still will be an amazing road for all of them....can't really predict...what is shown and what we are not being shown is what is blowing me away...ex. Matty's discussion regarding that Kenny is the brains while Crystal is the muscle and that they need to go, along with the latest insider clip that BR posted above from Sugar...WOW!!! She doesn't care if she comes in second to Kenny...WHAT???!!! What happened to her tears of how he duped her and she didn't trust him...??? She is SO all over the place, and just when I think she's got some brains and direction, she starts making comments like that??? God, I sure hope if she makes the finals that she DOES NOT win...when she doesn't care about that or not!

I was over at CBS watching videos and there's actually one for each of the remaining Survivors. Matty and Ken have a bonding moment and it looks like they are both on the same page. Both of them started out on Fang. They say they both have suffered terribly and Matty states how he missed even Crystal when they were separated. Then if you watch the other video with Matty's thought on how to play to F3 he says that he needs to vote out Ken or Crystal. I think to save face that he will vote out Crystal first. Take his chances with II and hope that he can beat Ken next week. After watching Susie and her outlook on how to make it to F3, she talks about Matty often and I believe that she will swing with Matty and join up with him to join forces with Corinne and Bob to vote out Crystal. Kenny will be next, but only because Sugar still has the HII and they will probably try to trick her some way or another and that will leave her without the idol for the next vote. Corinne would be a good choice for the finals, so therefore the next one to leave will be Sugar followed by Bob. That leaves us with Corinne, Matty and Susie. (Not my pick of the pack, but what can I do? lol) There will be a final competition and Matty will win it and take Susie, and that will give the boot to Corinne. With only Fang left the Jury will have to content with "Adam or Eve". To get to the end and boot so many of his former tribesmates to get there, Matty will look like the evil mastermind, since nobody will believe that Susie would ever be able to form this plan, and therefore will be considered the evil one. With dear, sweet, older but wiser, Susie to play the role of "Good". LOL

You know, that's something I really find refreshing about this season. I've been on these boards since just before A$$, and every season we've had at least some kind of boot order spoiler, or very well sourced spoiler. This year, it's so unpredictable, and the editing is deceptive... it's really exciting to see more spec. I haven't really taken much part in spoiling, despite reading it all the time... as I don't have the greatest eye for detail, I've never been one to deconstruct the vidcaps (kudos to those who do), but other discussion has usually been stifled with so much already known about the boot orders - it's usually 'how I think this sourced boot order spoiler will come to fruition' rather than a genuine 'this is my guess on how things will shake out'. This season is a welcome change, imho.

I am with you, Brownroach, up to Final 5.

At that point, I think Matty and Sugar will vote out Crystal, leaving Matty, Sugar, Ken and Susie as the Final 4. Matty wins immunity again and Ken is booted. We have a Sugar, Susie, Matty final three, which Matty wins.

That's how I think it will go. But if I got to pick how it would go, I'd choose:

Final 7 - Corinne
Final 6 - Crystal
Final 5 - Sugar
Final 4 - Bob
Final 3 - Susie
Final 2 - Matty and Ken, which would hopefully lead to a close vote between Ken and Matty, with Ken narrowly beating Matty for the title of Sole Survivor.

Didn't we see the pre-game discussions that Matty is too nice for the game dispite himself? I really like him, but I was thinking that we had a clue that told us that he would not be at the end of the game?

I don't recall when...but I think it was from Jiffy.

NedraSue

A number of posters have said they expect Matty to go on some kind of II run ... I just don't see it. Matty has been good at the athletic part of the challenges, but not so good at the puzzle solving aspect. Meanwhile Kenny has been at least adequate at the athletic, and this seasons best puzzle solver. Since Survivor has changed the challenges of the past couple seasons to be a complex of athletic, or strength/endurance and puzzle solving. I expect the last IC to be an endurance/strength challenge, but until then I expect to see more of the same ... athletic and puzzle.

This puts Kenny in a very strong position to make F3 and win the mil. If Matty is smart enough he will convince Susie to switch and join Corrine and Bob ... make the deal with Corrine that Bob is eliminated at F4. Corrine would jump at this because of the numbers on the jury in her favor, while Matty and Susie would split the old Fang vote.

If Matty and Susie don't make the switch the Corrine, Bob pagonging will continue. At F5 Mattys only chance is to win the II, and I don't think he's guaranteed to do that. Moreover, at F5 people start getting very serious about who is beatable in the finals. Matty is probably more palatable to Marcus, Charlie, Randy, Corrine and Bob, than any of Kenny, Crystal, Susie, or Sugar. Matty will be perceived as too much of a threat and without the II will be gone at F5.

Okay, here goes ...

F7 - Corrine
F6 - Bob
F5 - Matty (although the Star of David and the bird symbols can't be ignored - but is that misdirection the way so much of the season has been?)
F4 - Susie
Winner - Kenny - like him or not, he grew up a lot in a month, and he'll be respected for that by enough of the jury. Moreover, Crystal and Sugar both have too many enemies, and that laughing at Randys demise wont win any respect from the jury.

Also like to extend my thanks to Scarlett for starting this thread, it is fun ... especially since there is no boot list, everything is speculation.

sol, you make a great point about Kenny and immunity challenges. I hope your speculation is true and Kenny makes it to the end. I could see him as the winner particularly if his edit picks up in the next couple episodes.

A number of posters have said they expect Matty to go on some kind of II run ... I just don't see it...At F5 Mattys only chance is to win the II, and I don't think he's guaranteed to do that.

I agree that Matty should be out at Final 5 without immunity; however, to me the way his story is being editing says he gets further than that -- that is why I am speculating that he will probably win immunity there. It doesn't have to do with who is most likely to win immunities in general. After all, Susie won immunity, in a fire-building challenge no less. Who'd have ever guessed that would happen?

I am skeptical of a Crystal/Sugar/Kenny F3 because Sugar says in the Insider clips that she is anticipating exactly that. Now I'm not sure we can make the same assumptions from the Insider Clips as from what is put into the actual show. But if that scene had been in the actual show, it's a safe bet her F3 wouldn't come to pass.

Kenny & Crystal along with Susie seemed to get the least attention in the recrap show. It would seem odd to ignore the final 3 in the recrap show. That doesn't look good for them as long term.

Longtime lurker, just had to post my thoughts.

I find it extremely hard to believe that any of the "fAng5" flip to Bob and Corinne. I think the end of the recrap episode shows Corinne freaking out at Sugar. Not sure when exactly that would be in the next few episodes, but Corinne does not make any one want to be on her side.

Also, these last 5 players are extremely emotional, and it rarely seems like they're thinking end-game. Obviously Corinne would be a great person to sit next to you for F2, they hate her. Sugar hates Corinne. Matty said he was tired of her attitude, Susie agreed. Crystal will do what the majority says (or what Kenny wants).

Also Corinne's already got at least 3 votes in her pocket (Marcus, Charlie, Randy), the possibility of Bob, and if one/two of the fAng5 flips, whoever they vote out will not be happy. Thinking like that, it wouldn't make sense to keep Corinne in any scenario.

Anyone remember how Jeff worded the recapped boots last night? It was a lot of "Kenny, Matty and Crystal ...." (as in, they granted GC's wish, voted off a front-runner in Jacquie).

In my mind, Bob saved his butt for the next 3 days by pulling the fake idol stunt, and he'll just try to win immunity in challenges after that. Don't think it will happen, though.

F7 Corinne
F6 Bob

Here's where it gets dicey. Sugar can choose between Matty/Susie (they say they have an alliance, also have been close since Fong) and the indestructible alliance of Kenny/Crystal. She goes with K/C, with the promise that it won't be Matty (who Sugar's been close to since nuFong).

F5 Susie

Matty wins immunity here and M/S vote Crystal, while C/K vote Sugar. I think Kenny and Matty have some unwritten code of brotherhood that says they won't vote for each other. Sugar wins the "tie-breaker."

F4 Crystal (who'd ever thunk she'd make it this far)

It ends up being a F2, and in every scenario I see Kenny going F2, probably with Sugar.

F3 Matty

Kenny wins. I remember Jeff saying people would be pleased by the outcome. People like Marcus, Dan, Jacquie winning would be a well-duh and boring moment, like Tom in Palau. Easy to say now that they're all eliminated, but overall, I think Kenny winning could be a good thing.

I just want to say that I really enjoy this season. It makes me upset that Randy says that fAng had the benefit of the tribal switches, though. When K/C were left with Bob/Marcus/Susie, they could have rolled over and accepted the minority position. Instead they voted out the power player. They had the short end of the stick on both NuNuKota/Fang, but managed to make do. My take on the editing. Plus, I hated Marcus. He came off as an arrogant SOB, who was incredibly boring. At least Kenny has funnier moments like, "I think that's BS" and "Well, who DOES deserve to leave?"

Sorry for the essay, just my thoughts.

Good message. I think that's how it all goes down and I definitely was not a Marcus fan.

With the great work that VG has done over at Surivvor Phoenix with blowing up the F5 challenge along with the F5 themselves. See the pics here and note the "here". You can now see the moving real time of the F5.

So, if it's Corrine, Sugar, Kenny, Matty, and Crystal/Susie? how will the end game unfold? Will Sugar coast into the final four being unchallenged with her idol in hand? I think so, at this point, and I must say, I am severely disappointed by the players that are content to let her coast right in...

I fear for Matty if he does not win immunities...he can start his IC run at any point...

Corrine is a sure vote against Sugar, for anyone that would choose to use her, after all, she hates her. I wonder if she will hook up with any of the remaining players...Matty? At this point IF, Sugar doesn't align with Matty and Corrine, I don't see how Kenny and Crystal can be stopped...but if Kenny/Crystal align with Sugar, Matty and Corrine will be toast...

Boy, Bob sure looks nice in the red bikini! WOW! What a great episode that was! I knew it wouldn't be Matty, as we saw him in the Blindfold challenge and MAJOR KUDOS to Volcanic Glass at Survivor Phoenix for NAILING the F6 challenge and the F5 finalists! WELL DONE! She is one step ahead of us all!

So, with Corrine gone, there is only one onion standing and we know that he makes the F5. F6 will be Crystal, Bob may just win the IC and give it to Kenny. Bob will be toast at F5, IF he does not win immunity. If he does win immunity, Kenny will be F5...interchangable, Bob/Ken, F5/4, Final three: Susie/Sugar/Matty, Matty will win...alot could happen...Kenny could make it perhaps? We'll see! GREAT, great series!

Well now we know it's F3, a) they've never had a F5 Finale with a F2 and b) Corinne said there are 7 jurors on an ouster interview.

I think it's going to be Matty outliving Kenny because Corinne is making a huge deal of how Kenny blew it not booting Matty, which seems right to me. Voting against him and not ensuring he left, very bad.

Sugar and Susie seem to me a lock for F3.
So Bob or Matty, but probably Matty. The whole editing has been heavy on us since the merge to root for Fang, to want an "underdog" to win. That eliminates Bob.

Of the players who got a confessional before Jeff started the game, which FP and I both thought was a group that should contain the winner --

GC and Ace were the only pre-jurors.
Marcus is jury.
Crystal, Bob, Matty remain.
Matty got the Eden quote.

Susie and Sugar are not getting votes from the Kota 4, and if they turn on Kenny and Crystal and go against Matty, not sure they get any love for their gameplay. Crystal has got to have more respect for Matty. She respects physical strength.

Crystal is not winning this game unless she were against the other two women, but she's not in the F5 by FP's eyes, and she was slighted in the Recrap.
Bob is not a Fang underdog.
Kenny and Susie didn't get first confessionals.
That leaves Matty as the winner if the confessionals were significant.

Not that I think he wins but Kenny did have a confessional in the introduction of the season and a very good one at that:

Ken: I'm number one in the world at a video game. I'm huge time strategist but I am very shy. In the game of Survivor I am the underdog."

Regarding the end...F5: Bob, Sugar, Kenny, Matty, Susie. Bob is the challenge hog. If he wins every IC, he's in the F3. They have to get Bob out before the F3. Usually the final challenge is indeed an endurance challenge. If Matty does not win that one, he should be toast. Matty won the other endurance challenge, however, he should win the next one.

Bob will most likely win the F5 challenge. If Bob wins, then I think Matty, Susie, Sugar will vote out Kenny. I don't think Kenny will win because he has just appeared so so arrogant, imo. Even with this blunder of his, revealing his vote to Matty, we still hear him saying regarding Bob, "He messed with the wrong guy". He really considers himself supreme. He could be a "Hatch" type winner, I suppose, but I don't see him getting to the finals unless he were to win the F5 and F4 immunities.

If Bob wins the final IC, he'll go to the finals with Sugar and Susie, imo. But, I think Matty will win the final one.

ah michel, you and I are using different cutoff points for the introduction. Not that there is a rule that the winner will be in the first group introduced, or where that cuts off.

In Fiji, for example, the introductory period went all the way to Jeff's first physical appearance on the ground, which was a long time because he dropped stuff for them with instructions.

In the Cooks, the first four confessionals belonged to the 3 of the Final 4 and as there was only one confessional per tribe, Becky couldn't have had one anyway.

Here, the first confessionals were Crystal, Bob, GC, Ace, Matty, Marcus - 1 woman and 5 men btw.
Then the credits roll, which is where I made my cut off.
After the credits, Jeff appears and tells them to introduce themselves, and for some players they get a confessional following what they tell the tribe. These are Kenny, Randy, Corinne, and Crystal. All end game players, we now know.

These confessionals all highlight the disparity between what they shared and what they're really like. (Charlie and Marcus, who fibbed and fudged, don't get confessionals, so we don't find out Charlie is a lawyer, and Marcus is more than "in the medical field.")

Then we get the pickem.
Charlie conf - playing Stupid Survivor. Interestingly, he rolled his eyes when Sugar and Susie were picked before him, Marcus, Matty, Dan. Nice irony if they make F3.

During the challenge, near the end, Jeff says of Matty:
"Matty, just trying to get his tribe to the top." This is after they had already lost and were just trying to cross the finish line to put an end to the humiliation.

Very prescient quote for Matty in hindsight of his story with the Fang tribe.
Bob too is pointed out by Jeff for helping Paloma.

FWIW, the confessionals during the challenge were Michelle, first girl to the top and first boot, and Crystal, making excuses.

Overall, of the jury plus F3 players, the only ones who did NOT have a confessional prior to being sent to their camps were SUGAR and SUSIE. What an interesting choice considering we now think them almost a lock for F3. But they won't win, they really can't win given the jury.

Five men got confessionals prior to the credits rolling, and Bob and Matty are the only two left in the game, along with Crystal. Kenny's early confessional was after the credits, as I said this second group is Kenny, Corinne, Randy, Crystal. If Crystal is indeed missing from that F5 photo, these are all jurors except we don't know about Kenny.

I have a feeling that the showcased males, Matty and Bob are the winner and F4 guy who would have won hands down if he made F3, while the women who did not get confessionals, Sugar and Susie, are the two finalists with no chance to win the vote.

Five men got confessionals prior to the credits rolling, and Bob and Matty are the only two left in the game

Very interesting observations and hindsight there, OFG. Do you remember Bob's confessional? Didn't he say that he wasn't here to play the game, but rather live the adventure? Or something to that effect? I'm willing to bet he's our F-4 boot. And what an adventure he's had!

Or maybe he does win after all? Time will tell.

"you and I are using different cutoff points for the introduction."

It really comes down to that question, doesn't it?! As you noted, the confessionals after the credits were still introductions to the players so I used the start of the challenge as my cut-off. Maybe because I wanted to include the confessional from Corinne which I thought was the million dollar quote.

Very nice post by the way. You should post in the editing thread like you used to.

Scarlett: Bob's confessional was personal background stuff like teaching physics and being from Maine.

thanks you guys and thanks for the encouragement, michel.

Re the editing thread, I have a rule that I don't post when I haven't read all the other posts, and the thread is such a monster of wealth that I gave up keeping up somewhere early on ... my loss I know.

So FWIW whatever comments I just made that should have credited someone else who already noted these things - I haven't read the editing thread this season.

oh and I do appreciate the irony that I write posts of epic length and can't keep up with the editing thread because it is epic. Also it's just easier for me to post in threads where all spoilers can be mentioned, so I don't have to watch my words.

Re Bob, yes, he didn't say anything about playing the game to win, just about himself and his skills for Survivor. He is to me not exactly a journey player but someone who enjoys the self-sufficiency aspect, similar to Ozzie. Living off the land.

I would like to see Bob win, but he was so hidden at Kota after his initial contribution to the shelter and camp, while Marcus and Charlie and Ace played narrator. If Bob were going to win, seems like he should have gotten more chance to narrate. He didn't reappear until he was actually in danger in the game.

Matty has been a consistent narrator, and so has Kenny, and lord knows Crystal has talked enough, and Sugar. Susie, another player only shown when she's on the block or needed as a vote.

With Bob, we've consistently had the theme of him being taken for granted. The Onion Alliance was confident they could string him along while he was of use to them and get rid of him when he was no longer useful.

During the ranking tribal switch, Bob was ranked quite high on his tribe, yet wasn't picked for a long time. Jeff even commented on Kenny bypassing Bob and asking if that decision would come back to haunt him. Jeff harped on everyone overlooking Bob during that pick 'em.

Once the merge came around, Bob remained an afterthought. Even though he had been performing so well at challenges, his tribemates kept underestimating him. They thought sending him to Exile Island was the equivalent of a snipe hunt, when he used it to manufacture a fake idol and plan out some strategy. Even his alliance mate Corrine underestimated him - she expressed surprise at Bob's ability to lie in her post-boot interview.

In the first episode, we were presented a geeky high school science teacher in his bow tie who seemed ill-prepared for the challenges ahead of him. Talk about a classic underdog.

He's the only one that I would be happy about winning at this point, so my viewpoint is probably skewed. My non-Internet family members who are addicted to Survivor are also major Bob fans and would love for him to win.

Bebo, Bob is the only one I am rooting for!
I love your argument and hope it's right.
I'm typically so disappointed by the winner that only heavy drinking helps assuage the Finale PAIN.

Guess I don't want to hope and be let down.
Right now I'm just hoping it's not Crystal, Sugar, or Susie.

LAST EDITED ON 12-08-08 AT 00:50 AM (EST)

IF that F5 photo is not the real F5, but Dreamteamers, or Crystal is in it, we shouldn't discount Crystal, as far as first confessionals go.

She's the one of the six who said she would win the hell out of this game.

Another possibly interesting comment by Jiffy, in his first recap (Ep 2)

He says "the group included a high school physics teacher, a world class gaming champion, and an Olympic gold medalist." Bob, Kenny, Crystal.

That recap was of course done after the season ended when Jeff knew who won.
Wouldn't it be interesting if Kenny, Crystal and Bob did manage to flip the game and get rid of Matty, Sugar, Susie? Hmm.

The thing is though, Crystal wouldn't get the votes in that F3. I think she only wins if she does sit between Sugar and Susie, like Flowerpower said.

LAST EDITED ON 12-08-08 AT 07:59 AM (EST)

Whereas, all Bob would have to do to win is get to F3. There is no way that any player left could beat Bob in front of the Jury, IMHO.

I think Kenny could beat anyone in the finals, even Bob. Yes, the Kotas like Bob, but Kenny is liked too. Corinne has said she does. And Randy likes Kenny too. And Randy probably is not thrilled with Bob because of the HII fiasco.

And people like Charlie and Marcus will want to vote with integrity - for the person who played the game the best. None of the women remaining can win, except maybe Susie who I think would do well in front of the jury and could make her case. Crystal and Sugar don't have the soft skills to sell themselves. Matty could certainly win the jury over.

I just know that we have often said "Oh, these people will all vote together in the jury" and then they split their votes or vote for someone we never expected. I don't think it's at all a slam dunk that the Kotas vote together, no matter what Corinne said in her exit interview.

I don't think it's at all a slam dunk that the Kotas vote together, no matter what Corinne said in her exit interview.

Good point, Corvis. Time and time again we have heard people with vehemence state that they would never vote one way or another, and in the end they do...time will tell. Corrine is coming from a different place, as is Randy, than the rest of the jurors...

Considering what Charlie heard that Kenny was calling him behind his back. I do not think Charlie would ever vote for Kenny.

I am not sure about that. I think some of that issue may have gotten aired out at Charlie's last TC and it wasn't shown. Why did Jeff Probst seemingly out of the blue ask Charlie what he thought of Kenny and vice versa? And Kenny said when he was voting, "It's not that I'm homophobic..." -- why would he mention that unless it had been called into question?

Charlie in his post-exit interviews said he was surprised by Kenny's attitude but he also talked about how certain moves represented good game play. He didn't seem to have particular animosity toward Kenny. I think it would be possible for Kenny to get Charlie's vote depending on who he was up against.

That Onions will split their vote has been rolling around my head too. Corinne has been so wrong in her assessments for the entire season why would she start being right now. The closer things get to the end the more I wonder. Now that I've said that and knowing my track record has been as good as Corinne's >snort< that the onions split the vote is probably off.

I do see Randy & Corinne voting the same, what a pair they are. Charlie & Marcus voting the same as well with their reasoning being for a more rational vote than Randy & Corinne's more emotional vote. If their vote is for the same person their reasons will be different.

Corinne may find herself on the end of the 3 votes that don't matter, the final insult to her. Although I've got to give it to her, if you can't be right, be wrong at the top of your voice.

A Tribal Sig