I was all set to post this and then the board went down. Argh! Glad to see it's coming back - thanks behind the scenes people who are working to get it back up.

Okay, so I am really liking this season. And I decided to try confessional analysis again to see if I could figure out who our winner will be. The way it works is this. I count the confessionals and divide them into two categories. Ts are ones that talk about the tribe and what's going on. Ds are specifically about the tribal dynamics and who is in danger of getting booted. What I have found is that people with more Ds go before people with more Ts. I also look for confessionals that are about the wonder of the location or meta-strategy confessionals. These often indicate the winner or at least someone who goes far. I used to put all this on a blog, but the really good seasons are in posts that blogger ate or behind the doors of a private board. (I started this back in season 3.)
I should also note that I have not been reading Veruca's Editing thread so I may be unknowingly repeating stuff people are writing there. I like coming at this with a fresh perspective.

Matty – 3T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 4T, 2T, 3T/1D, 7T/1D = 21T/2D
Randy – 4T/2D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 2D, 6T/2D = 15T/11D
Sugar – 1T, 0T, 6T/1D, 1T, 2T, 2T, 3D, 2T/1D = 14T/5D
Crystal – 3T, 0T, 1T/1D, 1T/2D, 3D, 4D, 1T/2D, 4T/2D = 10T/14D
Ken – 2T/2D, 1D, 0T, 2D, 1T/1D, 3T/2D, 3D, 2T/1D = 8T/12D
Susie – 0T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 0T, 1T, 1T, 1T/6D = 5T/6D
Charlie – 1T/1D, 2T/1D, 2D, 1D, 1T, 0T, 1D, 1T/1D = 5T/7D
Corinne – 2T, 1D, 3D, 0T, 0T, 1T/1D, 2D, 3D = 3T/10D
Bob – 2T, 0T, 1D, 0T, 0T, 1T, 2T, 0T = 5T/1D

I have say right now that I think Matty or Randy wins this season. Matty had an extremely important confessional in episode one. While everyone else was talking about themselves, he talked about Gabon being Earth's last Eden and how beautiful it is. He later talked about how the elephants are right outside their camp. Later on, when the elephant comes to visit in the daytime, Matty talks about it in reverential tones - it's "magnificent". He says it makes you appreciate the purity of Gabon. Later he talks about the idol as the apple in Eden and no one wants to be thrown out of Eden. Most recently, he had a confessional about how he's worried he doesn't have much time and every moment is valuable and he has to give it his all. With 21 Ts and only 2 Ds, he's being edited as our winner. If he doesn't make top 3, I'll be shocked.

Randy is the other person I like for a possible winner. While his edit isn't as striking as Matty's, he is the only person left who has had a confessional in every single episode. Randy's confessionals are often about his strategy. Early on he talks about sitting back and watching other people self destruct. Later on, he talks about how you have to adapt and this "crusty old man" can do it. Randy reminds me somewhat of Brian's edit from Thailand. Brian was always talking about his plan for winning and we're getting an inside view into Randy's strategy. And it's not just about specific happenings in the tribe, but meta-strategy confessionals that could be applicable to any season.

The final person who will go a long way in this game is Sugar, but I don't think she will win. We are meant to like her. She's emotional and we are meant to relate to her emotions. She has two journeys - one was the city girl who survives the outdoors - that story seems to be over, but watch for it to pop up again if times get hard. The other is the underestimated player who has more game than anyone gave her credit for. That story seemed over with the flip on Ace, but it's not over yet as she feels she was manipulated by Ken and Crystal. For her story to be complete, she is going to have to avenge Ace.

So who's not long for this game?

Corinne is one who will not win. Her Ds far outweigh her Ts. We're not getting anything from her beyond her thoughts on who should be booted and who her allies are. I could see her going soon especially since her increase in Ds happened in the last two episodes. Charlie is another who is not going to last long. Charlie's entire story was tied to Marcus. The only time we heard anything from him, it had to do with Marcus. Charlie will not last long.

Susie had a big spike in Ds last episode as well. This could be setting her up for a boot soon, but I wonder. She's had a lot of confessionals about making it to the Top 3. To me, it felt like we were getting the beginning of her story - a fight to make it to the end. I don't know whether she will make it or not, but if she were going soon, it would seem like that story would have started earlier. She also had both the wonder of the location confessional and the the meta-strategy confessional. In one episode she talked about her strategy was to work hard around camp. When they went on the helicopter ride, the people who got the "Wow, Gabon is amazing" confessionals were Bob (interesting...) and Susie. Charlie or Corinne could have been given that confessional, but they weren't. So if I had to guess, I'd say Susie makes it further than some people may think.

So what about Crystal and Kenny? Both have more Ds than Ts. Neither one is getting the confessionals that winners get. I pick them for early to mid-jury. And finally Bob. Bob could very well be the final member of the final 3. He's getting that under the radar edit of someone who may make it to the end with no chance of actually winning. It sure doesn't seem like he's going soon.

So according to confessional analysis, the most at risk are:

Corinne
Charlie
Ken
Crystal

The safest are:

Matty
Randy
Sugar
Bob

The one we'll know more about after this episode:

Susie

• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,emydi, 09:18 AM, 11-13-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,Scarlett O Hara, 10:05 AM, 11-13-08
  • RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,emydi, 10:29 AM, 11-13-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,CTgirl, 12:09 PM, 11-13-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,michel, 05:25 PM, 11-13-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,Flowerpower, 06:32 PM, 11-13-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,citywitch, 07:34 AM, 11-14-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,Georjanna, 08:21 PM, 11-14-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,suzzee, 09:23 PM, 11-14-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,Corvis, 09:24 AM, 11-15-08
  • RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,Flowerpower, 03:58 PM, 11-15-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,SpotTheDifference, 09:42 PM, 11-18-08
  • RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,Corvis, 05:18 PM, 12-07-08
• RE: Confessional Analysis - Gabon,Corvis, 05:42 PM, 12-07-08

LAST EDITED ON 11-13-08 AT 09:57 AM (EST)

Corvis!!! Thanks so much for doing this. What an invaluable tool!! and it supports my boot pick for this week...Corrine!

again, sorry michel

ETA

I think Matty has a great chance at winning but he has to go into the F3 with all Uthongs, Randy or Bob cannot be there or the other 4 onions will vote for them (unless the final 3 is MRB then there's only 3 old onions--MCC). The best would be go with Crystal Susie or Ken (and to lesser degree Sugar). I think the onions will vote for Matty over any of the other Uthongs, esp if he goes on II run.

LAST EDITED ON 11-13-08 AT 10:07 AM (EST)

Thanks for bringing this thread back Corvis! It is just one more reason why our site is the best Spoiling site on these boards. I am in complete agreement. I noticed the Matty confessional right off the bat. To me, he is an EPMB favorite and is clearly the "Ozzy" of this season. He is in love with the journey and is going to revel in the beauty and place that is Gabon, cherishing each second he has there. He is doing his best to overcome the odds. Will he succeed where Ozzy failed? I don't know, but I sure hope so. I want the good guy to win! And he has been given the "good guy" edit!

Your confessional analysis supports my picks of a. Corrine or b. Charlie as our Boot this week. As for Susie, I think she just may achieve her goal of F3. She is a logical player to take along for the ride.

As Jiffy goes, I think Matty's more like Colby to him, esp. if he goes on the II run I expect him to.

I agree Susie and either Ken/Crystal would be a good F3 for Matty

During our little SB hiatus, I rewatched the first episode. In hindsight, the three people who stood out to me (knowing what I know now) were Corinne, Randy and Matty. It's interesting to me that your confessional analysis upheld two of the three potential winners in my mind.

Thanks for doing this Corvis.

Nice analysis Corvis. I've often enjoyed your blog in previous seasons.

You may very well be right about Matty. It seems that, in recent seasons, the editors had favored the "D" type confessionals over the "T"s. Take Todd who was all D for example. I suspect Yul, Earl and Parvati also were more D. That's why I liked Corinne's profile but I could very well be wrong.

LAST EDITED ON 11-13-08 AT 06:33 PM (EST)

WOOOHOOOOO! Thrilled to see you back here, Corvis, with your Confessional Analysis in hand! This could be a very telling clue to help us in our everlasting quest to spoil the show. Thanks so much, and GREAT Job!

ETA: Would it be possible to add the previous boots with their Confessional highlights for each episode as well? Thanks!

what an interesting analysis! with Matty & Randy as the F2 or part of the F3 that would be the final showdown of the good vs evil theme we've been led to expect

Corvis,

Thank you so much for doing this. All of it is fascinating!

But, for several reasons, I am most looking forward to your assessment of Susie's 'safety' ...

Older than Gillian. Shorter than Susie. As athletic as Crystal.

Sensational! So, I guess we're done, right?

All kidding aside, that's really interesting. Good work!

Matty – 3T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 4T, 2T, 3T/1D, 7T/1D, 4T/2D = 25T/4D
Randy – 4T/2D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 2D, 6T/2D, 2T/3D = 17T/14D
Sugar – 1T, 0T, 6T/1D, 1T, 2T, 2T, 3D, 2T/1D, 1T/2D = 15T/7D
Crystal – 3T, 0T, 1T/1D, 1T/2D, 3D, 4D, 1T/2D, 4T/2D, 0T = 10T/14D
Ken – 2T/2D, 1D, 0T, 2D, 1T/1D, 3T/2D, 3D, 2T/1D, 2T/2D = 10T/14D
Susie – 0T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 0T, 1T, 1T, 1T/6D, 0T = 5T/6D
Corinne – 2T, 1D, 3D, 0T, 0T, 1T/1D, 2D, 3D, 1T/2D = 4T/12D
Bob – 2T, 0T, 1D, 0T, 0T, 1T, 2T, 0T, 2T/2D = 7T/3D

Charlie – 1T/1D, 2T/1D, 2D, 1D, 1T, 0T, 1D, 1T/1D, 2D = 5T/9D
Marcus – 3T, 1T/2D, 1T, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 3T, 3D, 4T/4D = 14T/11D
Dan – 0T, 4T/1D, 2T, 0T, 1T, 0T, 1T/2D = 8T/3D
Ace – 3T, 0T, 1T/2D, 2D, 2D, 5D, 1T/1D = 5T/12D
Kelly – 0T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 0T, 1T/1D = 2T/1D
GC – 1T/2D, 7T/3D, 0T, 2T/1D, 0T = 10T/6D
Jacquie – 0T, 1T, 0T, 1D = 1T/1D
Paloma – 0T, 0T, 1T/2D = 1T/2D
Gillian – 3T/1D, 2D = 3T/3D
Michelle – 1T/2D

Per Flowerpower's request, I added the other counts. Marcus and Ace got the D bump before their boots. Dan, Kelly and Jacquie disappeared in the ep before their boot. GC has one of the strangest patterns. He kind of looked like a storyteller, but he got just one big ep of storytelling and then disappeared and reappeared a little bit and then got booted. Consistency means more for determining longevity, I think.

So what about last episode? Three Survivors talked about the reward and got Ts. Corinne's confessional about it (her only T) first described what happened and then focused on her reaction to it. Randy's confessional about it was also focused on him - how a girl wanted to dance with him. In contrast, Matty, while he also talked about how it affected him, was chosen to describe it as "two cultures colliding." Matty is getting the important confessionals.

Bob popped up again with the most confessionals he's ever had in one episode. They were evenly divided between Ds and Ts. Perhaps we're getting the start of Bob's story or will he disappear again next episode?

Corinne added to her D pattern. Still looks bad for her soon. Kenny had as many Ts as he did Ds. Sugar and Randy got little D bumps but out of the two, I'd say Randy is at more risk as he has far more Ds than Sugar.

Crystal and Susie disappeared in confessionals this episode. We have seen three Survivors disappear in confessionals before their boot episode this season, so that might be something to watch for. I said last time, that Susie will be the one we'll know more about next episode. Well, the fact she disappeared in an episode where she won immunity by building fire is significant. There had to be confessionals where she talked about how proud she was, how she built fire like a true Survivor, etc. We weren't shown any of that. If she makes to the end, why not show us that stuff? So now I am wondering if perhaps she doesn't make it.

So the people who are most in danger are (in order according to my thinking):

Corinne (strong D pattern)
Crystal (disappeared and more Ds than Ts)
Randy (slight D bump)
Susie (disappeared)

LAST EDITED ON 11-15-08 AT 03:59 PM (EST)

Great thoughts there, Corvis and really interesting. Definately there seems to be either a "D" spike in the confessionals, or, they do seem to disappear prior to their boot episode.

I definately think Corrine is in danger, but boy, has she been consistant. Very interesting to note the disappearance of Crystal in this last episode...hmmmm????

Out of all of the old Fangs, I would think she would indeed be targeted first, she's got a big mouth and has shown that she can not be trusted at her word...

Hi Corvis. This is very interesting information. I do have a question though: What were the confessional patterns for winners from previous seasons? I'm asking because we've had winners who were UTR and may not have as many confessionals. Do they show a T/D pattern consistent to your theory? For that matter, can T/D counts predict who the winner will be, or is this mostly to predict who the next boot will be?

Thanks for clarifying!

Yes, winners tend to end up with more Ts than Ds. It's not 100% (and I haven't done this for every season so I can't say for certain), but that does seem to be the pattern.

Matty – 3T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 4T, 2T, 3T/1D, 7T/1D, 4T/2D, 1D = 25T/5D
Sugar – 1T, 0T, 6T/1D, 1T, 2T, 2T, 3D, 2T/1D, 1T/2D, 2T/3D, 3T/2D = 20T/12D
Crystal - 3T, 0T, 1T/1D, 1T/2D, 3D, 4D, 1T/2D, 4T/2D, 0T, 1D, 1T/1D = 11T/16D
Ken – 2T/2D, 1D, 0T, 2D, 1T/1D, 3T/2D, 3D, 2T/1D, 2T/2D, 0T, 1T/3D = 11T/17D
Susie – 0T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 0T, 1T, 1T, 1T/6D, 0T, 0T, 1T = 6T/6D
Bob – 2T, 0T, 1D, 0T, 0T, 1T, 2T, 0T, 2T/2D, 2T/2D, 1T/4D = 10T/9D

Corinne – 2T, 1D, 3D, 0T, 0T, 1T/1D, 2D, 3D, 1T/2D, 1T/1D, 1T/5D = 6T/18D
Randy – 4T/2D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 2D, 6T/2D, 2T/3D, 1T/11D = 18T/25D
Charlie – 1T/1D, 2T/1D, 2D, 1D, 1T, 0T, 1D, 1T/1D, 2D = 5T/9D
Marcus – 3T, 1T/2D, 1T, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 3T, 3D, 4T/4D = 14T/11D
Dan – 0T, 4T/1D, 2T, 0T, 1T, 0T, 1T/2D = 8T/3D
Ace – 3T, 0T, 1T/2D, 2D, 2D, 5D, 1T/1D = 5T/12D
Kelly – 0T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 0T, 1T/1D = 2T/1D
GC – 1T/2D, 7T/3D, 0T, 2T/1D, 0T = 10T/6D
Jacquie – 0T, 1T, 0T, 1D = 1T/1D
Paloma – 0T, 0T, 1T/2D = 1T/2D
Gillian – 3T/1D, 2D = 3T/3D
Michelle – 1T/2D

So in the past two episodes, we haven't seen any huge shifts in the confessional patterns. Matty and Sugar are still more T heavy indicating either or both could certainly end in the Final 3. Ken and Crystal have nearly identical T/D patterns, which makes sense since strategically these two are linked. Susie continues her disappearance which to me indicates that, while she may make the Final 3, she has no chance of actually winning. Bob got a D bump in the last episode which has almost evened out his Ts and Ds.

We did get some really interesting confessionals in the last episode, however, which I think is supposed to point to our winner. Matty had two confessionals that are linked. In the first one, he talked about himself and how he was weak, never making the hard calls, and he's learned in Gabon that you have to grow up. This culminates in him asking Jamie to marry him and making that hardest of all calls - asking someone to be your life partner. In his second confessional, he talks more generally about how good things in life aren't easy. We have to dig deep to find that we have so much ability, so much "gold" in us. If you dig for it, you will find it. Obviously this points to Matty winning especially when you consider all the other comments he's made over the course of the show. However, he could also be pointing us to a different winner.

Who else has dug deep and discovered his or her true self out there in Gabon? There are two people who come to mind - Sugar and Kenny. Kenny had a confessional last episode where he said that he never imagined he'd be catching fish and how he's become his own man out there. Remember the awkward with the girls Kenny we were introduced to in the first episode? Now we see confident Kenny who is his own man. As for Sugar, we saw early on how she came into the experience with the baggage of her dad's death and how she has to overcome that. In the last episode, that story was finished as she spread her dad's ashes in Gabon. She got closure.

Kenny, Sugar and Matty have all had to dig deep in Gabon. Could they be the final three?

In danger according to CA:

Crystal (more Ds than Ts)
Kenny (more Ds than Ts)
Bob (D bump)