It's Time To Vote!

But first a Disclaimer:

Hey, remember that long disclaimer last week about I don't include spoiler info in the initial post of the voting thread? Well, that's still true. Despite that the promos are promising some sort of new twist this week, you'll have to look up the SOTS whenever it comes up if you are curious, no intentional spoilers here.

We cool? I may want to make a post on this thresd after the episode, strictly for recordkeeping purposes, I mention that for the site monitors as a request to not lock this thresd too soon.

The Rules

1. Put the name of your choice for this week's boot IN THE SUBJECT HEADING! This is easy, just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, Time to Vote..." and replace with your vote, e.g., "Sugar!"

Or, for example, if you think this will be a two-boot week: "Sugar and Charlie!" It doesn't matter which order you put them in unless it matters to you.

This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately, if anyone bothers to do any tallies. Nicknames are tougher to tally unless they're really obvious without actually reading your post and sometimes not even then.

Other things you want to vote on, who wins what challenge, biggest fish out of the water, dumbest confessional statement, et cetera, these should go in your post not in your subject line.

2. Reply ONLY to this post! We like a nice straight vote thread around here. Don't take it personally, we're just OCD that way.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

If it just so happens that you want to change your vote for any reason, REPLY TO YOUR OWN POST! Your new post heading should read, for example, "VOTE CHANGE: Marcus!" (Or perhaps "VOTE CHANGE: Marcus and Matty!")

3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD, DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please.

But please feel free to discuss the logic of your vote in your own post, cast all the extra votes there you want, we are interested in what you have to say.

4. No sig pics! We're really OCD about vote threads, we want everyone to be able to play. This could theoretically become a very long thread, the fewer graphics the better.

5. Have fun! That's why you're here, right!

The DAWs!

Crystal Cox (Fang/New Fang)
Jessica "Sugar" Kiper (Kota/New Fang)
Ken Hoang (Fang/New Fang)
Matty Wittmore (Fang/New Fang)

Bob Crowley (Kota/New Kota)
Charlie Herschel (Kota/New Kota)
Corinne Kaplan (Kota/New Kota)
Marcus Lehman (Kota/New Kota)
Randy Bailey (Fang/New Kota)
Susie Smith (Fang/New Kota)

Michelle Chase (Fang)
Gillian Larson (Fang)
Paloma Soto-Castillo (Kota)
Jacquie Berg (Kota/New Fang)
Danny "GC" Brown (Fang/New Fang)
Kelly Czarnecki (Kota/New Fang)
Ace Gordon (Kota/New Fang)
Dan Kay (Fang/New Kota)

• Dude, Matty is toast,Outfrontgirl, 06:20 PM, 11-04-08
  • Vote Change: Randy,Outfrontgirl, 10:57 PM, 11-04-08
    • RE: Vote Change: Randy,suzzee, 03:11 PM, 11-05-08
  • Vote change: Sugar,Outfrontgirl, 04:14 PM, 11-06-08
• Crystal,michel, 08:20 AM, 11-05-08
  • Vote Change: Matty ,michel, 06:25 PM, 11-06-08
• Randy,CTgirl, 04:53 PM, 11-05-08
  • Sugar, no Matty, no Sugar!,CTgirl, 06:28 PM, 11-06-08
    • RE: Sugar, no Matty, no Sugar!,Brownroach, 06:38 PM, 11-06-08
• Please... Crystal,Carezy, 05:54 PM, 11-05-08
• Crystal,vince3, 06:09 PM, 11-05-08
  • Vote Change: Matty,vince3, 11:31 PM, 11-05-08
    • Vote Change: Somebody on Fang!,vince3, 09:15 AM, 11-06-08
• Matty,Corvis, 06:49 PM, 11-05-08
  • Update: Still Matty!,Corvis, 03:16 PM, 11-06-08
• Randy,dabo, 11:24 PM, 11-05-08
• Matty,redbeard103152, 01:50 AM, 11-06-08
  • Vote Change Sugar,redbeard103152, 02:59 PM, 11-06-08
• Matty,MJewel, 08:10 AM, 11-06-08
• Sugar,Flowerpower, 09:06 AM, 11-06-08
• Randy,kingfish, 09:19 AM, 11-06-08
• HEY RANDY...,Round Robin, 10:01 AM, 11-06-08
• Sugar,Georjanna, 10:28 AM, 11-06-08
• Matty,Max Headroom, 10:35 AM, 11-06-08
• Matty,byoffer, 11:23 AM, 11-06-08
• Sugar,emydi, 11:27 AM, 11-06-08
• Sugar,Loree, 11:36 AM, 11-06-08
• Sugar,sol, 11:43 AM, 11-06-08
• Sugar,Brownroach, 12:34 PM, 11-06-08
• Vote tally,Brownroach, 05:30 PM, 11-06-08
  • Vote Tally Update,michel, 06:28 PM, 11-06-08
    • RE: Vote Tally Update,Brownroach, 06:36 PM, 11-06-08
      • RE: Vote Tally Update,CTgirl, 06:40 PM, 11-06-08
• crystal, still crystall,b1whois, 07:44 PM, 11-06-08
• Matty,kircon, 07:59 PM, 11-06-08
• Matty,sugarbooger62, 08:42 PM, 11-06-08
• Matty or Randy or Sugar or ???,whoami, 08:45 PM, 11-06-08
• bookkeeping post,dabo, 01:27 AM, 11-07-08

OK, I'm not that convinced at all, because Jeff has certainly indicated his hopes for Matty to last.

Reasons:
The Randy, King of Gabon, promo tells me that Randy is going to be prominent this episode in more ways than pulling a Hatch at the feast.

Whether Randy will crash and burn or succeed in making a play, I think his tribe of Corinne, Charlie, Sugar, Matty goes to TC, and I suspect that Randy gets Corinne and Charlie in agreement to throw the challenge to save Marcus, who is the obvious target at NuKota.

There are only 3 Onion votes which is not enough to cover two targets in an idol smoke-out such as they just performed at Kota with Dan and Susie. R/C/C need to vote as a unit in case Sugar and Matty combine votes - therefore if they vote Sugar, her vote could send Randy home.

Yes, they could bank on a re-vote with a tie, but ties are tricky. The safe vote is Matty. He has no defense. There is no reason to think Sugar would give him her idol. If they can manage to make Sugar paranoid, she might play her idol AND Matty would go home, which would be a great outcome for R/C/C.

Alt - Randy gets too clever and mistakenly targets Sugar.

If I'm wrong about Randy going to TC, then Crystal. Marcus's story does not feel done to me.

Editing wise, Marcus, Randy, Sugar, and Matty are all developed characters who could be important to the end game. However, of all of them, Matty's edit has been of the hapless underdog victim. Gina in Marquesas, for example of another likable player screwed over by a swap, illustrates that sympathetic underdogs don't always make the merge. Aaron in China is a recent example.

VG has lyrics from "Why Trust Me?" over the new tribe photos at Phoenix.
Perhaps Randy tells Matty "trust me."

Matty would be a straightforward and like boot. But the previews give me pause.

Jeff: There's a new king in Gabon and his name is Randy.

One castaway takes the game into his own hands and lets the power go to his head.

After one power drunk castaway decides to take the game into their own hands, the tribes are faced with a brutal endurance challenge that comes down to a nail-biting showdown.

VolcanicGlass has this over the Randy preview of him lifting a glass and saying I rule
(disclaimer, I generally suck at figuring out VG's riddles!)
"What is that old saying one is so fond of quoting?"

Could be,
Pride goeth before a fall?

And her line about the smile and crocodile tears is from "Why Trust You?"

In any case, if the boot story is in the teasers, either it's Randy, Randy's victim, or the other clue about shocking sacrifice - which could be anyone.

As to the mechanics of how Randy would go, less obvious than a Matty boot. There's an old song covered by Ry Cooder and Bonnie Raitt - "Never Make Your Move Too Soon" - and Randy may sin along these lines. Perhaps trying to spin too many webs, make too many alliance overtures, and making Corinne and Charlie nervous. They can easily set him up. It just depends whether they'd rather do that than eliminate Matty the potential immunity hog.

Alt Matty or Sugar

If Randy doesn't go, I like him for the finals along with Corinne and possibly (I hope) Marcus.

Just a thought, change the inflection of the sentence to emphasize the word one.
"What is that old saying one is so fond of quoting?" Is there someone named "One"? or has the word One in their name. If so, are there any sayings this "One" is fond of?

Agman camouflaged me for S17

I'll now have voted for the only 3 I think are candidates, lol

While the promos do set Randy up for a fall, the Probst promo sets up a second half of game theme with mean-spirited vs those who feel deserving. Let's face it, without Randy the only really mean to the core person is Corinne, which is not enough. So Randy has to stick around. It's also possible he found a one time idol at the feast.

Although Matty is a logical boot if the Onion's plan to stay together, he is shown in the Probst promo while Jeff discusses the bad folks, and with an evil grin IMHO. Crystal told him (on Insider) that he's becoming evil. We know he's desperate.

The only question really is would Corinne and Charlie have any interest in allying with him? Guess that depends on how well Randy and Matty sell it, and whether they lose confidence in getting Marcus back and feel like they need another player.

I think it would have to go down that Sugar thinks Matty is the target and gives him the idol out of guilt. He blabs it to Randy et al, and they decide to vote Sugar. Sugar thinks she and Matty are voting against Randy or Corinne and doing an idol bounce.

There are certainly other ways it could happen.

Sugar is not shown as "good" in Jeff's promo - rather "pretty." So she is outside of the two groups that are mentioned as shaping the second half of the game, however the promo does say that the mean people are against the "pretty."

As I wrote here there are 6 targets this week. Randy or Matty could be the boots but I think Randy is just too obvious.

With Kenny and Susie on her new tribe, the power drunk player has to be Crystal who sees an opportunity to get rid of Marcus 3 days after getting rid of Ace.

Pssst, Jeff, next time you have something big to reveal, do it before I write the SOTS!

This is a hard choice with 6 potential targets this week.

-The web clue sounds like it’s referring to Randy (and as a result nunuFang): “One castaway takes the game into his own hands and lets the power go to his head.”

-Most of the photos in the CBS press release featured the newest Fang tribe in their camp, and none of the nuKota camp, so it seems to me that the game drama will take place at Fang.

-The promos (especially the 20 second promo) highlight Randy, Matty and Marcus (all had “speaking parts”) and to a lesser degree Sugar, Charlie and Crystal (4 of the 6 are nuFang).

Keeping the OFG theory in mind along with the fact that I think the boot comes from Fang, I narrowed it down to Randy and Matty in trouble. Randy has only recently been officially part of the Onion alliance, and I could see steam coming out of Corinne’s ears if Randy gets too big for his britches. Plus he pissed off Sugar last week during the RC. I think his reign in Gabon is short-lived!

Alternate: Matty, “Nobody wants to be thrown out of Eden.”

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 06:29 PM (EST)

Oops, I forgot to put vote change in my subject! Put let me be the first one to mess up BR's numbers!

LOL, I've been going back-and-forth all day between these two choices.

With Jeff's new promo saying that the idol comes into play, I had to rethink my bootee for this week. I was leaning towards Matty last night because of his vidcap presense, but I think Sugar's story is over. She got Ace booted last week but I think she blunders with the idol this week, gives it away and gets booted herself. I think she's run out of game.

I would not at all be surprised if Matty was the boot though.

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 06:40 PM (EST)

let me be the first one to mess up BR's numbers

Too late, michel beat you.

I totally agree with your post.

I HOPE!!!!

She's sooooo annoying, it's hard to watch her. I just really WANT her to go.

*shrug*

I really hate the producers this year........

*tears hair out and stomps out!*

The reason why I don't think it's going to be Randy is that this storyline of him being king isn't going to be resolved in one episode. I do think he is being set up for a fall, but not that quickly. If nunuFang goes to TC, the three nuKotas don't have the votes to target Sugar and have a backup if she uses the immunity idol. Therefore they will get rid of Matty.

Alternate is Marcus if nunuKota goes to TC. But that seems unlikely because Susie is the swing vote there and if she actually had the game to get rid of Marcus, we would have a hint of that in earlier episodes.

I don't think it's going to be Sugar, folks. My argument is in that thread about the Jeff Probst scene.

Coz Sugar saw him bite the reward and flaunt it at her starving tribemates.

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 01:55 AM (EST)

Somehow Sugar uses her idol again and our evil Eve leads another Fang Adam to his exile from Eden. Thanks Michel for the addition to SOTS. Our little Sugar has become such a player this season.

Didn't Eve have to leave the garden with Adam? Or the two snakes leave back to back.

Matty

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 11:54 AM (EST)

I counted Sugar in danger with the second promo. The most in danger from the vidcaps were: Randy, Matty, Sugar, Corrine, Charlie, Marcus and Crystal. I put Marcus, Charlie, and Corrine imediately on the back burner(as well as Crystal, but she moved back with the SOTS and B1whois.) She is moved back to the back burner with the release of Jiffy's preview....leaving us with Randy, Matty, or Sugar. It most logically would follow that Randy or Matty would be toast, because indeed Sugar has the hidden II. I think Sugar will give her idol to Matty as she is seen crying when he tells her that Ace always protected her. I think she will feel that Matty is the target and therefore to redeem herself, gives him the idol. Jeff Probst noted in the preshow interviews that she started off with a bang and then nothing. She seemed like a player but she redeems herself right out of the game...

ETA Rationale: Sugar was the only one labeled "good" at nu nu Fang....this makes no sense knowing that just last week she backstabbed her only serious ally in the game, so in order for her to be labeled "good", she needs to do something good this week, like give Matty her idol to save him, in the process redeeming herself right out of the game.

....at least this all sounds pretty good! As I see Randy as the leader of the "evil" ones, I think Matty would be my second choice.

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 09:23 AM (EST)

Based on the Kingfish rule.

Which is, he who irritates KF must go.

...it's time for you to go!

I've missed 2 or 3 weeks voting and been wrong most of the rest. I could be as full of sh#t as a Thanksgiving turkey this time too. But if Randy dodges the bullet this time, he won't dodge it for long. He's getting too cocky, and it's gonna bite him in the a$$.

The image of the lone bird superimposed on the image of the lone remaining ... first, last and always ... Fang is a strong argument for Matty's boot.

But, I wonder if our "amazing" moment might be the image of a repentant Sugar who, having cast her vote with the other three of her current tribemates (for Matty), hands her HII to the 'victim' - and the only person who wrote her name down. Thus preserving her sweetheart personna for use in a game that she can win.

I think there's a lot of misdirection going on here.

To me this looks like a standard "vote off a strong individual immunity challenge player just before the merge" boot. And Matty fits the bill perfectly, being a strong physical competitor with few allies and on a weak tribe.

Sugar will give him the HII to make him feel safe, but then vote him out anyway.

ANd Matty gets her HI to boot and doesn't play it

Alt: Matty

See my post in new clip thread

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 11:42 AM (EST)

I think voting out Sweet Sugar is what starts the one group looking Evil as Jeff calls them. Randy, Charlie and Corrine are going to stick together. Randy probably wants to keep Matty since he did once have an alliance with him. None of them feel close to Sugar. Matty might try to prove his loyalty to the new group by outing the HI from Sugar. He talks her into giving him the idol by playing on her guilt. She falls for it and gets booted. Randy takes credit for the manipulation of Matty and Sugar.

ETA If Matty then gives the HI to Randy to prove his loyalty he would really be an idiot. Matty could get booted and Sugar would lose the HI. Randy really would be sitting pretty.

Let's see ... we have a Garden of Eden ... we have a snake ... we have someone that's been eating a lot of apples ... I dunno ... Sugar believes she is safe (gee, have we heard that one before?)

Anyhow, didn't I read somewhere that Sugar got married a relatively short time after her sojourn in Africa. If so, I'm applying the JFP rule, and assuming if she was around to the end game she would be too burnt out to be involved in wedding plans.

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 04:44 PM (EST)

Follows Ace-hole out the door.

I have no idea what's going to happen but if the idol is going to be used in a way to rival Eric's idiocy, and Sugar is in possession of the idol, I can only guess that Sugar ends up the victim. I kind of doubt that Matty would intentionally set her up, though he might do it inadvertently.

Plus thanks to sol for dredging up the fact that Sugar got married (to film director John Landis); back when I heard that I thought she would probably be an early or mid-game boot. So now's a good time for her to leave, pre-jury.

Alternate pick:
It *was* Randy, but Matty is the only other person I could see get booted via a bungled idol play. So Matty is my alternate pick. I do think Randy's power-mad antics at the feast will put a target on him, and that that is the point of the hype about him in the promos. He will probably be the other person to get votes at TC.

I may change my vote before airtime.

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 06:30 PM (EST)

Vote tally:

Sugar 8
Matty 6*
Randy 4
Crystal 1
All others UTR

*Matty has 6 votes counting vince3’s last vote for an actual person, before he switched to “someone from Fang.”

With all the vote changing going on, the above poll numbers may be obsolete in a matter of seconds even if no additional posters vote.

Edited: See? Polling stats are now adjusted to reflect that michel changed his vote from Crystal to Matty.

BR, you were right, the tally changed to:

Sugar: 8
Matty (+1): 6
Randy: 4
Crystal (-1): 1
All others UTR

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-08 AT 06:41 PM (EST)

Fixed it!

How come we posted at practically the same time but your date stamp is an hour later than mine? Wait, now mine is changed. This is spooky.

I posted my vote change at the same time michel did too! No wonder my server slowed down to a crawl!

Vote tally:

Sugar 8+1=9
Matty 6*
Randy 4-1=3
Crystal 1
All others UTR

keeping with my insider analysis, of course. so much other stuff is swirling around that i am hoping a lot of it is misdirection.

my theories:
the website clues are not in order and the "drunk with power" clue refers to randy at the feast.
the II shown on the feast table is sugar's, she pulls it out of her bag and says "i dont want this thing anymore, whoever wants it can have it" or something to that effect. (that would leave peeps scratching thier heads in a similar fashion to eric last year)
good versus evil theme gets its start this week when the good (marcus and bob, with the participation of ken and suzie) vote out crystal because "she is not a good person to have around." other "good" players are matty and sugar. the "bad" are charlie, corrine, and randy. these will battle the "good" players (marcus, bob, sugar and matty) for the hearts and souls of suzie and ken. matty has been good since jeff said we would love him pre-season and he remains so with his wild-eyed-wonder edit. his altercation with crystal is because she is "bad juju" and further confirms that he is cut from the "good" cloth. sugar has also always been good and when she eliminated ace last week that was a triumph of good over evil.
on a side note, i can really see the good versus evil connotation in the way that dan and ace are portrayed in photos of the double booties.

I've been wrong every time. I planned on voting Crystal, so I decided to go with Matty who will leave with the HII.

Matty

Matty or Randy or Sugar or ??? We will find out tonight, I hope?

LAST EDITED ON 11-07-08 AT 01:48 AM (EST)

I mean, hokey smokes, EPMB has been really playing us this season. It should get better after the actual merge, if there ever is an actual merge.

Anyway, this is the bookkeeping post I requested for this thresd, to be helpful to myself or whoever posts next week's vote thresd.

The DAWs!

Bob Crowley (Kota/Kota2/Kota3)
Charlie Herschel (Kota/Kota2/Fang3)
Corinne Kaplan (Kota/Kota2/Fang3)
Crystal Cox (Fang/Fang2/Kota3)
Jessica "Sugar" Kiper (Kota/Fang2/Fang3)
Ken Hoang (Fang/Fang2/Kota3)
Matty Wittmore (Fang/Fang2/Fang3)
Randy Bailey (Fang/Kota2/Fang3)
Susie Smith (Fang/Kota2/Kota3)

The Jury

Marcus Lehman (Kota/Kota2/Kota3)

Eliminated

Michelle Chase (Fang)
Gillian Larson (Fang)
Paloma Soto-Castillo (Kota)
Jacquie Berg (Kota/Fang2)
Danny "GC" Brown (Fang/Fang2)
Kelly Czarnecki (Kota/Fang2)
Ace Gordon (Kota/Fang2)
Dan Kay (Fang/Kota2)