Nice, kircon. Thanks.

So I guess there's just one challenge -- the water lacross. The other "event" time is the change-up of the tribes?

Thanks kircon for doing all the work this week. It has been hard to keep up with things this season, too much home work. LOL.

Great job. Thanks again.

oh lord, now I stand to have major egg on my face! Thanks for the mention though!

Lovely SOTS, kircon! The swaps are always hard to sort through.
I sure appreciate all the work done with the vidcaps to put the info together.

Did it ever become clear who would go to Exile?

I think your Kelly pick is very reasonable. Her face is suddenly prominent, and I barely know what she looks like up to this point. Seriously, Kelly who?

Thanks everyone. It's been a drought in the spoiling field. I have looked everywhere for any bit of info. I found this on Survivor Phoenix's site:

Speculation ONLY, based on vidcaps, as requested.

"After players are ranked within their own tribes, the top player of each tribe becomes the MVP of that tribe. The next top rated players and the lowest rated players from each tribe are swapped, as well as one additional player from each tribe, possibly at the discretion of the top-ranked player.
Based on vidcaps, we don't think that more than three players are swapped from each tribe.

One of the players listed under new Kota will likely be sent to Exile, perhaps only to rejoin the tribe going to TC, making the tribes even for next week's episode."

I would then say Sugar, GC, or Susie would have the chance to go to exile.

I can hear Sugar giggle and say," It's like Christmas Morning!" "giggle" I have the Idol and my cake too.

But SP has Fang winning which means Kelly is safe. Most spoilers have Kota winning the boat challenge then booting Kelly.

My guess is Fang is able to send Sugar (Kota) to exile.
Maybe because they have an extra player.

That might be the picture we see of Sugar with her back to us.

Kota wins the IC sending Fang to Tribal Council.
Fang votes out Kelly.

I don't know? What do you think?

Nice SOTS, kircon.

I am puzzled by the following statement you wrote.

>But SP has Fang winning which
>means Kelly is safe. Most
>spoilers have Kota winning the
>boat challenge then booting Kelly.

We have only posted vidcap analysis of the tribe swap, but have made no claim that either Fang wins IC or that Kelly is safe.

I wrote the statement by reading this:

...one of the extra players listed in new Kota will be sent to Exile and rejoin the losing tribe at TC...

which to me means Kota will lose and vote out one of their own.

Then on the resource page, the same statement was said:

”One of the players listed under new Kota will likely be sent to Exile, perhaps only to rejoin the tribe going to TC, making the tribes even for next week's episode."

In my mind, that says someone on Kota will be booted.

Am I misreading the vidcap? I see statements in Vidcaps as “claims”.

I did include “Speculation Only, based on Vidcaps” in my post. Maybe I should have included it in my statement.

kircon, I can see why you would reach that conclusion, but in fact, there is nothing in that graphic that suggests Kota loses.

The problem, I think, comes from trying to fit three different events into a graphic that was intended to relate only to the new tribal line-ups: the tribal line-ups, Exile and the challenge outcome.

The three players which have not been identified by vidcap analysis as being on either tribe are Dan, Sugar and Susie. At least two of them will be on Kota, leaving the fate of the third one undetermined.

Since the number of players is uneven, with Kota having one more player than Fang, there are two possibilities for the swap: Kota remains one player up or Kota and Fang have equal number of players, with the odd player out being sent out to Exile.

That was the extent of the reasoning on the tribal swap. Because I wanted to acknowledge that it is possible one of the players might get sent to Exile as a result of the swap, I made the notation on the graphic with the "it is probable" and "based on vidcap evidence" disclaimers.

As a separate issue, there is the aftermath of the challenge and the conclusions we can draw from the vidcap evidence.

We have footage of the challenge which includes a shot of the back of a blonde woman. Some people believe it to be Jacquie while others think it is Sugar. Honestly, the cap is not sharp enough for absolute certainty, but it looked more like Jacquie than Sugar to me, mainly because the bikini strap at the back was thin as in the one Jacquie wears rather than the thick one Sugar wears.

If the blonde girl in the raft is Jacquie, then we have our Fang tribe as outlined above. In addition, we have no direct vidcap evidence of who might be on Exile and whether they rejoin Fang or Kota.

If the blonde girl in the raft is Sugar, then one the three women who we know to be at Fang at some point after the swap, yet for who we have no challenge footage (Crystal, Jacquie or Kelly), must be on Exile, Fang must lose IC and they must return to Fang camp prior to TC.

Either way, with the possibility of Fang losing this IC, it would seem the producers would plan for the exiled player to return to the losing tribe, making both tribes even in numbers for the following cycle, regardless of who wins this week. If Fang loses, they simply swap a boot for a new member. If Kota loses, they simply lose an existing member. 7-7

I hope this clears up any confusion.

I've enjoyed watching all the tribe change speculation this week and you did a great job of summarizing it all. Thanks