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"Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 02-26-08 at 10:09 AM

Well, now that we've resolved that the HII will come into play this week, it's a good time to start thinking about who will be voted out at Tribal Council.

The SeeBS vidcaps show two tribemates in each tribe in conflict. Over in the FAVs corner, it's Jonathan v. Cirie and in the FANs corner, it's Joel v. Mikey. Could our booty possibly come from one of these four or is this classic EPMB misdirection?

Let's speculate. I'm not thinking it will come from the FAVs side as Cirie was shown last week inserting her influence over her tribe and orchestrating the Yau boot. Also, we saw her join a threesome alliance with Amanda and Parvati. This leads me to believe that we'll see more of these three later on down the road. That would leave Jonathan as the most vulnerable from the FAVs tribe.

Over at the FANs tribe, there was some speculation that Tracy would be the boot. However, I don't think we've seen her story arc yet. That leaves us with Joel v. Mikey. Could it possibly come from this duo? Joel seems to be in control of the majority alliance over at the Fans camp, so possibly Mikey could be in trouble OR any one of Tracy, Kathy, or Chet, who are the older "outcasts" at the Airai tribe. Let's talk!

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Messages in this discussion
"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 02-26-08 at 12:16 PM
I'm a big believer in misdirection - whatever the promos tell us, the opposite or something else will usually happen.

The latest promos ask "Are the women taking control of the game?" (my paraphrase) ... ergo, I take it to mean they won't.

Combine this with the promos playing up Tracy's haranguing of Joel over letting Mikey call the shots. Joel doesn't strike me as the type of guy who would enjoy letting Tracy yell at him like that, so if he was able to orchestrate the Mary boot two weeks ago, I don't see why Joel can't turn things around against Tracy in this situation with the conflict still fresh in the tribe's mind.

Tracy is my early favourite for this week's boot - I can be persuaded otherwise, though.

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Bebo on 02-26-08 at 12:31 PM
Given some of the other spoilers I've read, I'm leaning toward misdirection.

Yes, the three men listed in that promo are all showing up on spoiler lists as leaving pre-jury. But there are also spoilers indicating that Jonathan leaves for medical reasons, and since there are no spoilers indicating that we're having one of our medical boots this week, I think he's safe.

That commercial asking if the women are running Survivor makes me think a woman is in trouble this week. The women that are showing up on pre-jury lists are Kathy, Ami, and Tracy. Ami wouldn't get voted out before Jonathan, based on face time, storyline, and voting history, so I think she's safe. Kathy's a medical boot, so I think she's safe this week (although it could be the beginning of the end for her - maybe next ep, after three straight trips to EI?). So that leaves Tracy. At the beginning, Tracy was one of the outsiders in their own shelter. She may think she's got a place in the tribe after the Mary boot, but she gets blindsided as she learns she's still an outsider.

So I'm another Tracy vote at this point.

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Brownroach on 02-26-08 at 01:15 PM
Ami wouldn't get voted out before Jonathan, based on face time, storyline, and voting history, so I think she's safe.

Ami is the one who voted for Cirie at the last TC. Is it possible that will become known to Cirie?



Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Bebo on 02-26-08 at 01:54 PM
Yes, but I think Cirie would rather get the loudmouth out of her face first and then deal with Ami.

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Brownroach on 02-26-08 at 02:54 PM
I'm not sure. Cirie effectively neutralized Jonathan last week. It was obvious at TC that Jonathan was leading the charge against Parvati. He could never make any inroads with the couples alliance; Cirie doesn't really have to worry about him.

Whereas Ami and/or Eliza could try to worm themselves into the good graces of the couples alliance by pointing out what a dangerous player Cirie is (and that she generally sucks at challenges).



Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Q on 02-26-08 at 12:36 PM
I just don't know. From the previews about the Joel/Mikey feud. I do not see either of the 'Generals' going this week. They will continue to fight with their Pawns.

To me, I see this as good news for the outcasts of the tribe, IF they can keep the focus on weakening those two by getting out their allies, However, I agree that Tracy will go a little to far and will most likely be the boot.

I just do not think Kathy will melt down quite yet, and will most likely go in the next two boots after this one.

Unless, they go for a waffler instead. Joel is going to want to keep Chet/Kathy/Tracy, as he thinks he can control them (that is what I would do, tell them that he is the only one looking out for them from the 'cool' group) and they end up booting someone who starts to waiver from the core group.

I just do not see this tribe booting Mike or Joel right now. They need to stay strong. And after they see that Yau was booted, they may just want to boot a weak player. Chet SHOULD go, but I think the Men will work to get another woman out.

Who knows.


It is astonishing how foolish humans can be in groups, especially when they follow their leaders without question - States: The Bene Gesserit View. All States Are an Abstraction.

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by CattyChat on 02-26-08 at 01:07 PM
I'm leaning to a fans loss at IC -- following the back and forth IC losses that have occurred since the beginning.

I'm also thinking Tracy will go. My reasoning is that we have already been shown Joel's gigantic dumba$$ ego is controlling and he doesn't like anyone else in the tribe trying to strategize or tell him what to do. If Tracy confronts him, I think Joel will decide to take her out.

I mean, after all, this early in the game it is better to keep physical weaklings over people with opinions and keep-the-tribe-strong strategy. *sarcasm*

All misdirection and Tracy gets the boot for "challenging/questioning" Joel.


Tribe Catty -- 2 Parts Wisdom/3 Parts Raging Hormones

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Max Headroom on 02-26-08 at 01:38 PM
I think Tracy goes this week. She's one of the "outsider three" fans, doesn't appear to be dominant in challenges, and she's had a few mouthy moments that won't sit well with others. Sure looks like a logical boot to me.


A SharTribe creation!

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Flowerpower on 02-26-08 at 03:07 PM
Because of these vidcaps...



...I see an Airai IC loss. They will be going to TC. That narrows our field down. With the preview vidcaps, it was Cirie vs. Jonathan and Mikey B. vs. Joel. I initially noted this and pointed it out, will our boot be one of these four? We can eliminate the Malakal's, thus leaving Mikey B or Joel....of those 2, Mikey B. has my vote, Joel is set in the majority alliance AND we know that the older alliance wants him gone as well.

Now we know that it is indeed Tracy that is the mastermind, and we also know that spoilers have her leaving pre-merge, just as Mikey B. is supposed to. So, the 2 choices are Tracy or Mikey B. Tracy was not in the previews at all, at this point I'm leaning toward Mikey B.
...FWIW

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by CTgirl on 02-26-08 at 03:33 PM
My initial thought was that Tracy would get the boot for the same reasons as posted above. I have gone back and forth and think Tracy has a real chance at being booted. But...

I look at the vid caps "Survivor Women" and think but what if they are taking over and it's not misdirection? Cirie, Parvati and Ozzy have been given edits that show their strategy and game play has evolved since last time. They probably last quite long into the game. Alexis is obviously going to be the last woman standing from Airai. Spoilers indicate that Amanda and Natalie last well into the game too. This is the flipped version of Fiji! So how does this happen? Voting out strength now would hasten their demise. With so many women at the end of the game, it seems that all the strength (except for Ozzy and maybe James) gets voted out around merge time.

In the CBS misdirection clue Tracy is described as a mastermind, which could also indicate that she is successful in saving Chet or Tracy over Mikey. Joel has a big ego and he would love to get rid of the threat to his domain even if it means weakening his tribe. He could perceive himself as becoming stronger: he’s gotten rid of a rival and has all the outcasts under his wing.

And lastly, EPMB loves irony. Mikey call Chet one of the girls, how ironic would it be if Mikey gets voted out by the Survivor "girls!"


Thanks for starting this Scarlett

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by tbmmbt on 02-27-08 at 07:58 PM
Hi All,

Have been reading all the replies to as what they believe will happen. I will put my 2 cents worth in also. I heard just as all here have heard that there would be a number of blindsides in a row. Mary the 1st blindside, Yau the 2nd blindside. I just can't see Tracy as being a blindside. Mikey B. yes. Mikey is on the side of 6 versus 3 so a blindside would be one from the group of 6. Tracy is in the older group of 3 so one of them would be a expected boot from their point of view but I don't feel that will happen and the boot will come from the 6. I could be wrong and have been before so this won't be my first time but I'm sticking with a Mikey B. boot.

tbmmbt

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 02-28-08 at 00:27 AM
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-08 AT 00:30 AM (EST)

Welcome to the site! Hope you stick around to share more of your thoughts...

I was thinking some more about what you (and others) said about the blindside factor. I think we have to keep in mind what Jiffy said about a record number of blindsides - I don't think it's so much of what us spoilers think of as a blindside but more of a blindside in terms of perception by both the contestants themselves and the viewing public.

The viewing public is being shown that Tracy is a mastermind and both she and Joel have been discussing Mikey B. In this regard, Mikey B. wouldn't be as much of a blindside as Tracy would because the viewing public are seeing commercials screaming "Tracy's a mastermind!" They're expecting Tracy to control things in the tribe, and they'll be surprised when she's gone.

Likewise, Tracy thinks she's in control. Boom, the tribe turfs her out. Can't get any more blatant than that as a blindside. By contrast, Mikey B. has already had a blindside of sorts with his jaw dropping halfway down to the core of Earth in the last Tribal Council for his tribe. He wouldn't be quite as shocked if he got the boot this week as a result, IMHO.

At least that's how I view it. I've been wrong before.

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 02-28-08 at 04:42 AM
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-08 AT 04:45 AM (EST)

This is the first thing I've read all week, so I am completely behind the eightball, but when I saw the preview here where Tracy is having it out with Joel, my reaction was bye bye Tracy.

Re the blindsides, to our new member, we have to be really careful of misquoting quotes from Jiffy. I mean Jiffy's actual quotes can be BS so we don't want to add a dimension to them ...

A record number of blindsides (quote) is not equivalent to saying a number of consecutive blindsides.

Also, re blindsides, Jiffy's comments about them have NEVER related to the perception of either the general viewers OR the spoilers. He has always referred to whether or not the bootee saw it coming, and I think we should not interpret it any more loosely.

Remember Judd was a famous "blindside according to Jiffy" that WE saw coming down the track a few episodes before it happened. But JUDD was mindblown.

What would a record number be? Don't forget to subtract for "Jeffaggeration;


"If I'd meant that, I'd have said it." - Lewis Carroll

"RE: Ep. 4 Boot Discussion"
Posted by CattyChat on 02-28-08 at 06:14 PM
I agree with OFG about carefully dissecting Jiffy's quotes.

I also add, IMO, there has only been one blindside at TC so far: Mary.

Fairplay quit (thank goodness) and Yau-Man knew he was toast.

Taking that into consideration and Jeff's "surprising vote at TC" tonight, I think Tracy is blindsided. I don't think Joel or Mikey B would be a surprise at all, since they're both already gunning for each other.