OK, this pick is a bit later in the afternoon than I'd planned, I was hoping we'd get some last minute news to help make this pick of bit easier, but no such luck, so here goes...

Tribe losing immunity: Kucha -- we're buying into the "3 in a row, not 4, not 5" theory. ...plus, even without it, they are due to lose, the odds are against them.

Survivor voted out: Um, do we have to make a pick this week? Ok, we'll go with Alicia, but only if you let us have Kimmi as our alternate.

Sometimes a rose is a rose -- Burnett can't be throwing deceptive promos in every week, otherwise we'd figure it out too easy -- and we're figuring the Kimmi/Alicia thing does affect tonight's vote. Playing into the "cocky" part for a tribe that is referenced in Ep 6, I've been thinking back to the last vote before the tribe merger where the focus shifted from targeting the weakest to targeting the strongest -- with an eye toward post-tribe individual immunity.

My thought is that if a quarrel does bring the focus to Kimmi and Alicia, then the thought would be that since Kucha has been kicking Ogakor's ass every three days and sleeping with the Immunity idol for almost two weeks straight, Kucha will figure this is probably their last chance, pre-merger, to vote someone off (since they can't possibly see themselves losing twice in a row). ...and figuring that Kimmi's veggie-only diet will leave her so weak in individual immunity competition that she will soon take care of herself, they turn toward Alicia -- likely the biggest threat of all the women.

...anyways, that's the theory, we'll see

• Good luck, SB,AyatollahKhomeini, 08:05 PM, 02-22-01

I felt the same hesitation about this week's pick. I really liked the idea of Nick leaving, because it would keep up with the "surprise boot" aspect, but he has had so little airtime that it would be a major departure from MB's MO.

Time to go watch the show; the game is afoot!