URL: http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi
Forum: DCForumID2
Thread Number: 6435
[ Go back to previous page ]
Original Message
"Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 09-15-06 at 07:04 AM
Thank-you to Survivor Fever:

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by Bravehart on 09-15-06 at 01:46 PM
Ozzy wants to throw the challenge to get rid of 'dead weight' Billy? Would this signify a definate reward challenge loss for the Aitutaki tribe?

"RE: Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 09-15-06 at 01:51 PM
I don't know if we could deduce that, Braveheart! But, is that a chicken leg that Billy is chewing on??

"RE: Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by Brownroach on 09-15-06 at 03:02 PM
Looks like it, FP.

Cao Boi is telling bad jokes while they are trying to sleep? He is so going to get booted at Puka's first TC.

I was looking at these caps from the intro (VolcanicGlass has them all posted at Phoenix) to try determine if any could be from future challenges:


Nate was shirtless for the first challenge


Jonathan is behind Sundra here, was there any point in the first challenge where that could have occurred? Whose top straps are showing at the right - Stephannie's?


Rebecca looks like she is hanging on to something, or balancing.


This could be at camp, but I'm not sure what JP is doing.


Would Yul would wear his tank top for a swimming challenge? I guess this could be from the marooning.


Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by samboohoo on 09-15-06 at 03:10 PM
That would be JP looking mighty darn fine.


Thanks Tribe!

"RE: Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 09-15-06 at 03:15 PM
Cao Boi is telling bad jokes while they are trying to sleep? He is so going to get booted at Puka's first TC.

...agreed, but the only thing to ask is when will Puka be going to TC...I don't think they will next week...

As for the pics from the Intro...just don't know about them...
The first one of Nathan I think is from the marooning, remember he was the first one on the front of the raft and Sundra was right behind him, he had his brown shirt on then...

I think the one of Sundra was when the Manihiki's were struggling with the raft puzzle portion of the challenge last night. With that lens, Jonathan and the Rarotongas appear closer than they are, assembling their raft in the background, remember these two tribes struggled with it more than the other two tribes...

Rebecca and JP look they are in camp to me, Rebecca could have been holding part of the shelter up???

Yul's pic is definately from the marooning, he was in his wife beater shirt and swimming, he swam over and got a chicken at one point...

Don't really think that any of them help us out much! (Not like in seasons past anyway!) Thanks though.


"RE: Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by Brownroach on 09-15-06 at 04:29 PM
Yeah, I tend to agree with your assessments. Too bad for us.

As an aside, when I was watching the challenge last night, there didn't seem to be any point where Manihiki could cheat off Rarotonga on the ladder portion, like we saw in the preview. Maybe it was just edited out of sequence, but it looked like when Raro finished the ladder Hiki was still trying to figure out the puzzle.


Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by Bravehart on 09-15-06 at 03:55 PM
Looks like a juicy crab leg to me....

"RE: Ep 2, Dire Straights...Preview Vidcaps"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 09-17-06 at 08:42 PM
Crab leg!
Aitu is on Motukitiu, one of the only motus to have a good population of the much-prized coconut crab. Elsewhere it's been consumed out of existence.


"New season, back to basics..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 09-20-06 at 05:12 PM
Okay, so it's a new season, but EPMB has noted that they want to go back to "what works" as in Season One....so why not apply the good ole "OFG Theory" to our preview vidcaps....If it applies, then there is absolutely NO sighting of the Rarotongas. If we can conclude that Cowboy and Billy are standard "misdirection" than who does that leave us with? I think most of us have discounted the Puka's for ending up at TC, so that brings us to four possible daws that would fit the ofg theory...they are all aitutaki's, Christina, Ozzy, JP, and Cecilia.


"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by michel on 09-20-06 at 08:33 PM
I like your reasoning but maybe not its conclusion. We know Ozzy talked about throwing the challenge to boot Billy and that Cristina is worried about losing someone. She doesn't argue that it should be Billy but only fears it isn't time. I don't see how that argument could turn against her, especially editing-wise.

Very few teams have thrown challenges. When Ethan decided to get rid of Silas, editors made sure that Ethan had been someone we would agree with. Silas was the bad guy who had to be booted. When Burton proposed to throw the challenge, he had been portrayed as the villain who laughed at the pirate and wanted to get rid of one of his allies. His plan failed.

Ozzy was presented much more positively than Billy. The plan shouldn't turn against him. Why would it turn against Cristina? She did nothing in episode #1 so she didn't do anything wrong! Now she is on the "good" side, wanting to give an honest effort, not wanting to throw the challenge. Editing-wise it doesn't make sense that it would turn against her. Can the editors give her suddenly a negative turn? Certainly, but what we have been shown is Billy's edit turning from bad to worse. In addition, the close-up of him eating could be to show he's taking more than his share. Aitu thinks of throwing the challenge to boot Billy. Billy sits out the challenge and then they keep him? I have serious doubts. If the boot is hidden it is Stephannie or Candice. But sometimes the best hiding place is in plain sight: I think Billy is going!

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 09-20-06 at 09:00 PM
...a very compelling retort, michel!

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by forehead on 09-20-06 at 09:09 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-20-06 AT 09:30 PM (EST)

"Why would it turn against Cristina?"

Because castaways are castaways. They make dumb moves all the time - see all the GufuAward threads by dabo on bashers.

You're absolutely right - we haven't seen anything yet why it would turn against Christina, but in a single episode castaways can shoot themselves in the foot like you wouldn't believe it. Add to this the amount of "recruited castaways" as opposed to "students of the game" - no irrational castaway behavior surprises me anymore.

forehead

ETA: Another argument: Dalton Ross on Survivor Live indicated that Becky is going to be referred to as "Bossy Becky" - we haven't heard from Becky yet, so anything is possible. We haven't heard from Christina either, so who knows what's she's going to do...

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by michel on 09-20-06 at 10:35 PM
Players make stupid mistakes, that I'll certainly agree but the editors aren't as stupid. They've always "justified" a boot. If Cristina is going to be booted, I don't think we would have heard her say she doesn't want to throw the challenge. From Ozzy, we would have heard he doesn't trust her. We may even not have heard him say he wants to throw the challenge only that Billy is lazy and the rest would have been cut. Aitu would have lost the challenge, Billy would have been the alternative option but somewhere along the way, they would have us hear something negative about Cristina.

Tina was a loner, Morgan was lazy, Kel sneaked in beef jerky, Peter was weird, Hunter, Jolanda, Mia, etc... were bossy. Cristina being booted for going against a plan to throw the challenge isn't sufficient because it is a positive. Can there be negative added? Certainly, but then who is the good guy? Not lazy Billy, not vengeful Ozzy. It doesn't seem to make a good story.

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by forehead on 09-20-06 at 11:18 PM
michel,

I fully agree with you that we haven't seen a compelling reason yet. All I'm saying is that it would not surprise me one bit if we are shown the reason during the show.

There are elements of possible irony (let's throw the IC, no let's not, ouch we lost) and misdirection (Billy) in place that I think fit with past editing patterns. But that is nothing but a single hypothesis which will be tested tomorrow...

forehead

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 09-21-06 at 05:09 AM
it would be a nice ironic story if Jonathan got booted because he couldn't let go of the chickens once they were free. Chicken karma.


"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by emydi on 09-21-06 at 11:21 AM
Muhahahahahahhaah


We like you OFG!

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by forehead on 09-21-06 at 12:17 PM
LOL - Chicken karma

Another thing to consider for a Jonathan boot is his injury...

From the Inisder:

"There are some perks of being on Exile Island. I can try to find the immunity idol, which I've been looking for off and on all day. I think I have a pretty good idea of where it is, I haven't been able to find it yet. I get some time to myself. I get to heal up a little bit without anyone seeing that I'm limping around. Hopefully by tomorrow I can be healed up enough that I can say yeah, I dinged my leg but it's OK, and we'll see over a course of time whether my leg plays a factor or not."

To what extent will Jonathan "be healed up" in ep2?

forehead

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by architecturegirl on 09-21-06 at 09:26 AM
You make a compelling argument Michel, but from what I remember of many of the 2nd episode boots - the reasoning and story behind their boot was pretty much contained to that episode. Kel was not shown as a villain or in a bad light in the first episode - in fact, I'm not sure he was shown hardly at all - his story started and ended in the second episode, as did many second boots.
Same thing with Morgan - she was fairly invisible in the first episode, and we didnt hear any talk of her being lazy until the second episode which was her boot episode.
It seems over time that the person who is booted second is fairly invisible the first episode (unless there's a need or specific reason to show them), then they have a story the second episode and then head out.
I see compelling arguments for Cristina, and I think that Ozzy is supposed to be a big favorite - so she may turn on him because she feels he's being reckless, and if he overhears he may turn around and send her packing.
BUT - personally I dont think Aitu is going to TC, I think its Raro with Candice going home.
"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by michel on 09-21-06 at 10:18 AM
LAST EDITED ON 09-21-06 AT 10:20 AM (EST)

AG, you're right about episode #2 boots but my main point is that we already hear something very positive from Cristina, she doesn't want to lose. That doesn't fit with a negative arc. We never heard anything in Morgan's defense even if afterwards, we found out she carried a 20 pound bag of rice throughout the 11-mile hike. How is that lazy?

Actually, I've read OFG's argument for a Jonathan boot and that may be the best one yet. I've got to include him in the possible hidden boots along with Candice and Stephannie. I've still got Billy in the vote thread and still am convinced he would go if Aitu go to TC but will they? That was always in doubt.

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 09-21-06 at 12:01 PM
Well, I think that there are great arguments for alot of Daws this week. The rationale that I use to come to Aitutaki going to TC are the vidcap evidence(granted not totally conclusive). With that I can make a "best guess" that Aitutaki will indeed go. Now, I feel that the major premise of the preview vidcaps is that Billy is lazy, Ozzy wants to throw the challenge to boot him, while Christina confides that it's just not right. I just don't see EPMB handing Billy too us when that is the major direction he's going with in the previews...I like that they could decide to not throw the challenge and then lose it anyway, it's ironic, but I still don't think it's Billy, as that is what EPMB wants the average viewer to think...

He wants us to think it's either Billy or Cowboy, so therefore it's someone else....

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by emydi on 09-21-06 at 12:04 PM
Well, I think that there are great arguments for alot of Daws this week

Yes there are...remember you were right last season with Misty when we were all saying Dan the Rocket Man...although this year you are WRONG, its a Raro


"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by Brownroach on 09-21-06 at 12:08 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-21-06 AT 01:23 PM (EST)

Billy sits out the challenge and then they keep him? I have serious doubts

If it's any consolation, mich, I am voting for Billy too, though I am actually worried about the fact that he sits out the IC because to the best of my recollection no one has ever gotten booted after sitting out the IC. The exception was Burton when they threw the IC in P.I., but I don't think Aitu is going to throw it. So, we'll see -- Jeff said they played differently this time...



Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"And as it turns out..."
Posted by Brownroach on 09-21-06 at 01:21 PM
...Billy may not be sitting out after all. Who's that in the back, behind Flica?

The person by the water pool we thought was Billy must be Adam.


Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by KObrien_fan on 09-21-06 at 01:32 PM
If it's any consolation, mich, I am voting for Billy too, though I am actually worried about the fact that he sits out the IC because to the best of my recollection no one has ever gotten booted after sitting out the IC.

Robasu sat out the IC in ASS that happened to be his forte- puzzle building and then got the boot at TC. I think there have been others, maybe Dolly if memory serves?


"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by Brownroach on 09-21-06 at 01:36 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-21-06 AT 01:36 PM (EST)

I wouldn't count A$$ because there was the extenuating circumstance that they all knew how the others would play ahead of time.

I'm guessing it must have happened at least once but I just can't think of any instance either.



Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by KObrien_fan on 09-21-06 at 05:26 PM
I double checked and was correct in thinking that Dolly sat out the IC the episode that she got booted.


"RE: New season, back to basics..."
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 09-21-06 at 06:01 PM
Right or wrong, it's fun playing with you guys!
I had fun with my argument last night. It made sense to me and it was fun to argue something that I thought of instead of following the list.

BUT, it does seem that Aitu should lose this by not sitting Billy out. His size will be a detriment, won't it? I know he was a marine but there was probably less of Billy back in the days he trained.

And if he does cause a loss I see very little reason they wouldn't boot him for that as they can't afford to go down to 3. Cristina will really have to stick foot in mouth, which is possible. Did I mention she's an Aries?

I would like to see Raro lose and go to TC but the vidcap experts aren't holding out any hope. Sigh. Darnell at Sucks who clearly has some ties (probably to a contestant) is guessing Billy alt Stephannie alt Flika. He voted Sekou last time.

If Candice goes that'll be awesome because I'll be nicely surprised. Flika going is pretty ho hum.

I still like my Jonathan story because I think it'd be a good ironic story arc ... but they have to work with what actually went down.