The thing is: Kimmi may not fit in but she's still way too obvious. The point of the teasers is to fool the average viewer into thinking they know something. Kimmi is actually the least likely person to go in ep 5. Soooo, staying with the more men than women, more Kucha than Ogakor and my speculation that I really don't think Ogakor will lose 4 in a row, and putting all hope aside I'd have to say the next bootee will be...Liz (or Alicia but I really don't see Liz outlasting her).

However there's more anti-Kimmi fodder: The bikini(?) contest she's hosting....it's probably been mentioned on this board and I think it starts tomorrow and continues next week....could mean something depending on what their contracts allow them to do.

It would appear two women need to get voted off in the next two weeks. Lets go with Kucha being at TC in E5. First logical choice would point to Kimmi to go - but this is very obvious. Alicia or Elisabeth much less obvious choices.

We see a bit of Kimmi and Alicia scrapping next week. It could be nothing - or there could be tensions between them. If they are starting to conflict - the rest of the Kucha's may opt to eliminate one of them. Kimmi helped in both challenges tonight. She just doesn't get off on the animal eating mentality in her tribe - but doesn't seem to be raising too much of a stink over the whole thing. ( She dealt quite welll with Jeff taunting her over the pig capture and killing.) Alicia seemed to struggle with the mental aspect of the game.

If Lis, Rodger, Kimmi and Mike vote together - Alicia could be out.

As for face time - it seemed there was a great deal of Jerri, Colby, Alicia and Kimmi tonight - with Alicia getting more face time than Kimmi from Kucha. Not much of Lis.

Although I think a couple of items in this post are clearly wrong, I think that this post from the temporary message boards has a lot of insight into post-merger strategy:
**************
GuitarMan
Unregistered User
(2/9/01 8:44:55 pm)
Reply Alliance of the weak but loyal
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Loyalty is heart of any alliance. And alliances are the key to this game. The strongest bonds I’ve seen so far are Amber’s loyalty to Jerri and Elisabeth’s loyalty to Roger. Liz and Roger are sticking together. Even if Jerri is not so loyal to Amber, Jerri still wants her around for the same reason Rich kept Rudy around. Using these loyalties as the key to the rest of game, here is my scenario for the outcome:

Since okakor messed up by getting rid of Kel, I think they will take a beating in the next three IC’s as well. Okakor has the numbers, the brains and the braun to take the challenges. This would most likely leave the merged tribe as

Amber, Jerri, Colby + Elisabeth, Roger, Alicia, Jeff, Nick, Kimmi, Michael.

That’s 5 women but Alicia is buff enough to be mistaken for a dude.

Obviously, the okakor 3 are going to be anxious to hook with some of the kuchas after the merge. But who? I don’t see the kuchas hanging together and wiping out the okakor. There is already plenty of discord in kuchaville and it will only get worse.

Kimmi, Elisabeth and Roger will be really scared during the pre-merge IC’s. They know they are likely targets if okagor goes to tribal council. I’m looking for these three to get closer.

What would be quite interesting is if the following alliances form:

Amber, Jerri, Colby, Elisabeth, Roger, Kimmi vs. Alicia, Jeff, Nick, Michael.

None of the second group will survive unless one of them does extremely well in the IC’s. It gets fuzzy from here on out but sticking with my loyalty theory, the final four would end up as Amber, Jerri, Elisabeth and Roger. Conspiracy theorists should like this outcome as well because it keeps the old guy and all the babes in the show.

Opinions?

Remember, our spoiler said one tribes wins THREE in a row, not FOUR. The spoiler proved to be right up to this point, which means that Okagor would end their losing streak in Episode 5.

Certainly spoilers are good to analyze, and I am one of those hooked into doing so, but the majority aren't true. Still, the three mention and the possibility is certainly with some merit. However, it is also entirely likely that Kucha never loses another immunity challenge. This fulfills Kucha having more merger members and more men than women (who says it has to be just two more women) since Jerri is certainly a target and Amber or Tina are suspects.

The game now is to be a team. For Ogakor to vote off men is potentially suicide. They need to win challenges not place them selves in such danger as to be 7-3 in the merger. Physical challenges are advantage (huge) Kucha.

I also don't know where the post is for a double tie or a contestant asking to be voted off. Could you list their locations on this board?

> However, it is also entirely likely that Kucha never loses another immunity challenge.
***That's what I think might happen, too. Ogakor has two major disadvantages - they're weak from hunger (regardless of the fact that they won the fishing equipment, they've not had a lot of luck with it), and they're VERY outnumbered.

>For Ogakor to vote off men is potentially suicide. They need to win challenges not place them selves in such danger as to be 7-3 in the merger
***I agree here, too. Getting rid of Keith or Colby would be foolish right now. By the time they merge, there could be so few Ogakor's left that it only takes one or two episodes for the Kucha's to pick them off Tagi-Style!

****************************** "I hope if dogs ever take over the world, and they chose a king, they don't just go by size, because I bet there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas." (Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handy)

Minstrel, neither of those rumors was reported on this board; they both appeared on ss.com. (BTW, in my mind, ss.com is not the enemy -- MB is our mutual enemy.) I thought that they seemed too speculative to discuss over here.

But now I'm thinking about giving creedence to the rumor reported both there and here that the daughter of someone's sixth cousin thrice removed (or some such attentuated relationship) heard that Tina told her kids during a phone call in the middle of E7 that she was still in the game (could this be an RC win, as in S1? In S1, the "phone call" reward challenge was in E8, but it wouldn't be a surprise if it took place this time in E7).

In fact, here is volcat's post from the SB temporary board. Note that E7 is actually the first episode after the merger.

volcat
Unregistered User
(2/11/01 9:17:33 pm)
Reply Another rumor
--------------------------------------------------------------
For what it's worth, I heard fifth-hand that Tina makes it to the merger.
Hang on, this is complicated.
Someone I work with knows a childhood friend of Tina's. This woman said she heard from Tina's mom that the contestants were allowed to call home three weeks before they came home from Australia. When Tina called home, she told her children that she was still in the competition.
According to my calculations, that would be around the 21st day, which will be episode 7. That's the last episode before the merger. So, Tina must make the merger.

Yeah, I was pretty impressed that so many rumors were true. Anyway, I say that Alicia will go next week. It's time to get rid of strength in Kucha prior to merger. She is also a point of contention from the previews and everyone knows she and Jeff are scheming I think. I'll be sorry to see her go if she does.
Remember Deb's interview when she said we'd be surprised at how far Kimmi goes? Probably doesn't mean she makes it to the final four, but to the merger, probably.

AK...good summary overall of what we "know" after 4 weeks. Too bad there's no real spoiler info out there.

Preliminary "speculating" leads me to see something like the following happen the next 2 weeks:

EP 5. The arguing between Kimmi and Alicia is probably there to lead us off-track. A bit too obvious of a hint pointing towards Kimmi. Jeff and Alicia are the only ones we've seen actually scheming, but since they've not voted since day 3, there's been no real need to show us (as Ogakor voted 3 times, we needed to see their scheming each episode). I still think Jeff/Alicia are playing for the long haul, and Kucha will lose immunity (going on the rumor of 3 in a row - would have been a rumor of 4 in a row if that were the case, I think). Since we know they view both Elizabeth and Nick as threats, as well as Jeff's displeasure for Michael (though he did get his pig, maybe that swayed an opinion or two), my early pick is Elizabeth going (though that's sad, as she's the nicest one to look at of em all). They'll do this because of fearing Elizabeth's ability to win (the cute factor) as well as hurting Rodger's chances (who I think went up in everyone's opinion in helping Mike with skinning/gutting the pig). Even after losing a member, they'll be up one, so Rodger doesn't matter a whole lot for the last IC. Maybe they'll bring Nick in on the vote, and possibly Mike, though who knows. Maybe no one even talks to Mike. I doubt they'll approach Kimmi (as at one time I thought they might).

EP 6. It's way early, but to satisfy the 6-4 tribe ratio, Ogakor loses a final time. One rumor that may be misleading is the 6-4 men-women ratio. From a distance Alicia could resemble a man, so I don't put a lot of stock in that one. I have a strange hunch that Colby may have dug himself a whole he'll get stuck in with switching to Mitchell. Jerri *should* see the wisdom in it, as the tribe was doing terrible and needed to rid themselves of the weak link, but I doubt she will. She'll go definitely for Colby or Keith. Amber will most likely follow suit. Tina I've no idea on. A very opportunistic person, which is good for this game. Keith will probably still go after Jerri. What I think *may* happen is a Jerri/Amber vote for Colby, Keith going for Jerri, Colby going for Keith, and Tina deciding against Colby. Or possibly a huge switch and a Jerri ouster. On pure logic, Colby should go (the biggest threat to them all post-merger), but this tribe has some interesting dynamics going on. Too many questions, which hopefully will be answered in EP 5. Namely:

How will Jerri/Amber react to Colby's vote?

Who will Tina backstab next?

Is Keith really hellbent on taking out Jerri?

What does Amber really think? (she is really there, right?)

Is Colby the new man in charge?

But my first gut reaction was that Colby cut his own throat if Ogakor has to vote in EP 6. Black widow comments ring a bell?

And I must say I absolutely LOVED that episode!!! Mike is, I think, my new survivor hero, followed so very closely by Keith (both passing Kelly by a little bit). Sure Keith led (maybe) and effective rebellion against Jerri's kids, and Kelly DID win 4 IC's in a row when she had to, but Mike KILLED HIS PIG!!! He's just in his own little world out there, determined, not to win, but to EAT WELL! Kucha now has chickens AND a hog. I just love that dude (in a mutual guy respect kinda way, of course). And Rodger is a guy that I think everyone wants to keep around. I think if Lizzie is booted, everyone who votes against her will sit down and explain it to Rodger face-to-face, because they don't want him to feel threatened.

Welp, that's my novel for the day. Enjoy.

And here's to hoping we get a true spoiler before next Thursday. Guessing is great when you're right, but that's a rare thing.

First, I apologize to the board for my whacky Rodger theory but it seemed too obvious to me that Ogakor would lose. I want thank AK since he was on the money. However, based on the face time theory it seems that Kimmi did not have very much air time on Thursday. I think Kucha is bonding with her some because most of the tribe (with the exception of Vermin) seems to be very sensitive to issues about killing and eating the animals. If I was out there hungry I could care less whether I spared a vegetarian's feelings. Also, didn't someone mention something about Jerri, Mitchell, Jeff and Alicia going to the opening episode together? I think it was in one of the threads posted prior to the message board meltdown.

I have been an avid observer of this board until now, but I'm ready to join in the fun!

Some observations regarding Colby's "defection":

1. Jerri is not his target. It was oversimplifying the tribe dynamics to assume either that Colby was Jerri's lapdog or the mastermind of the fledgling alliance. Colby specifically resisted Keith and Tina's overtures to vote for Jerri in Ep4. Colby suggested a mini-alliance with Jerri to vote out Mitchell. Colby's ultimate defection was the natural result of Jerri's (sophomoric) rejection of this offer. Colby's vote for Mitchell was an obvious move to eliminate the weakest member of the tribe - not a permanent alliance with Keith and Tina. If Okagor loses immunity in Ep5 or 6 (probably 6), I could easily see him switching back to vote with Jerri or Amber against Tina or Keith. Jerri, quaking in her boots, will welcome him back with open arms, and Amber will obediently follow.

2. Jerri will make the merger, but does not have the guile or the diplomatic skills to win this game. Richard never openly alienated himself from tribe members until the Tribal Council. Jerri's predatory instincts are better suited to the LA bar scene than the Outback. Watch for her to be one of the first to go, courtesy of a Kucha alliance, post-merge.

LAST EDITED ON 11-11-00 AT 10:52 PM (EST)

Not having seen the episode, it's hard to know what to make of the Colby-Jerri situation. I saw a post that said Jeff Probst ribbed Colby about Kucha "kicking your ass" and Colby became visibly angry. So it could be, as suggested in one thread here, that Colby just wanted to vote off the weakest member so that the Ogawhore might finally win an IC.

One fascinating question will be whether Jerri reacts as crocbait suggests, welcoming Colby back to save herself, or as Elwood suggests, targeting Colby since he betrayed her in TC (the "black widow" approach). Presuming that the Kuchies have to dump a member in E5, Jerri and Amber will have six days to concoct a new strategy before E6....

First contri here...

This was a great episode for studying relationships and the variable dynamics of alliances. I think Jerri and Amber are in a very weak position now. Amber has demonstrated to Keith, Tina, and Colby that's she true-blue to Jerri. Mitchell could barely walk up to the voting booth, so it's just amazing that Amber didn't cast her lot with the K/T/C group, which Jerri might have forgiven since Mitch begged to be let out.

Jerri hates her whole tribe and will be looking to hook up with Kucha people post-alliance. That makes her the biggest threat to the O tribe post-alliance. So here's my wacked-out theory (based on zero evidence): K/T/C don't even try to win the next immunity challenge, they vote Jerri out, have more food for themselves, and let Amber into the inner circle for post-merger fun (though they screw her over eventually). Whadday think?

Good thoughts. But I think Colby has too much big ol' Texan pride to intentionally lose an IC. BTW, I think if Jerri does "make up" with Colby for E6, Tina goes; if she doesn't, she goes (at Keith's urging).

LAST EDITED ON 11-12-00 AT 00:51 AM (EST)

>): K/T/C don't even try to win the next immunity challenge, >they vote Jerri out, have more food for themselves, and let >Amber into the inner circle for post-merger fun (though they >screw her over eventually). Whadday think?

What food?

AHHHHHHHHHH I DON'T WANT TO HEAR ANYTHING MORE ABOUT ELISABETH GOING IN EPISODE 5!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOOOOOOOOO IT CAN'T BE POSSIBLE!!!!!!! SCREW THEM ALL IF THEY VOTE HER OFF!!!

ER, please read the last paragraph of the following post:

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/628.shtml#10

Does that make you feel better?

Yes, I read it and I believe it, too. There are just a lot of people (especially over at SS) saying that Elisabeth is next and I DON'T WANNA HEAR OF IT!

i canne take those eyebrows no longer!

GRRRRRRRRRRRR. and kimmi's mouth is more bareable?? not to mention, her complaining about everything now. and she is obviously weaker than elisabeth. would they really want to risk losing the last immunity before the merger by keeping kimmi (since only one person - rodger - would be able to sit out)? or are they really that stupid? ELISABETH MUST STAY!!!!

AK and ER Elizabeth doesn't have enough air time to be voted off and neither does Kimmi. I think Alicia is more likely. I did not tape E4 but neither Kimmi or Lizzie had a lot of air time.

LAST EDITED ON 02-16-01 AT 06:17 PM (EST)

... because it makes sense (from what I've read today) that Alicia might be ticking off the other people in her tribe. But didn't I just write yesterday that there couldn't be any serious disagreement that Kimmi goes next? Guess I was wrong yesterday!

I could picture Kimmi taking over the chicken farming and also starting to pick up some chicken smell. Alicia blows a gasket, and the Kucha have to decide whether it's more valuable to have a farmer (Kimmi) or a bodybuilder (Alicia). Plus Rodger and Michael don't like disharmony, and they aren't going to want to tend the chickens themselves. Watching Liz, she seems more likely to side with the squeamish Kimmi than the pushy Alicia.

And this is consistent with the discussion about the friendship between Alicia, Jeff, Mitchell and Jerri. If Mitchell and Alicia were both off, they'd have a lot of time to get to know each other. Meanwhile, Jeff and Jerri might both make the merged tribe but with their alliances shattered... or Jerri might go in E6 and set up a three-person friendship.

Speculative voting: for Alicia -- Kimmi, Rodger, Elizabeth, Michael; for Kimmi -- Alicia, Nick, Jeff. 4-3, goodbye Alicia.

EDITED TO INSERT: See Tamia's post below. Both of her points make sense and fit into this theory. I had forgotten the Deb comment. If Nick is on Kimmi's side, Alicia could go 5-2. Do you think Survivor is ready for an interracial romance (see Nick's comment about "dark meat", which SB posted)?

Sheer speculation at this point, but it's a start.

"Society's goal is to be part of the whole. That may sound good to you, not to me." -- P.F. Sloan

>I could picture Kimmi taking over
>the chicken farming and also
>starting to pick up some
>chicken smell. Alicia blows
>a gasket, and the Kucha
>have to decide whether it's
>more valuable to have a
>farmer (Kimmi) or a bodybuilder
>(Alicia). Plus Rodger and
>Michael don't like disharmony, and
>they aren't going to want
>to tend the chickens themselves.
> Watching Liz, she seems
>more likely to side with
>the squeamish Kimmi than the
>pushy Alicia.

Oh, come on, how much "chicken farming" is involved in tending to three measly chickens??

Seriously, keep them out of the sun, throw some feed in the morning, give 'em a frisbee of water to drink, and wash the cage out in the river few days (assuming they live that long)

...it's not exactly an all day event -- unless you have to clean the pen, what's it take, 5 minutes a day? ...and what else do they have to do -- not much.

My knowledge of chickens is limited to taking my daughters to farmparks that have chickens. Oh, and, in LBJ's words, I know the difference between chicken sh*t and chicken salad. Other than that, I know more about quantum mechanics than I do about chickens. I'll take your word for it, SB.

What if Kimmi secretly releases the remaining chickens thus sabotaging the tribe's hoard of meat? I think Alicia would go ballistic on that for sure! (And Kimmi won't be a target for the booted one)? Gee, let's give guns to criminals and ......

Well they're not pigging out like Kucha, but at least they can increase their rice ration. And it's not as though Jerri was catching any fish during her canoe-jacking. But anyway, food won't be their primary reason for booting Jerri, it's the post-merger problems that she'll cause.

I did notice 2 things that make me think that perhaps Kimmi won't go next.(Actually,Debb said that she and Kimmi never bonded until their flight home.If the bootees are allowed to hang out together at the bootee loser ranch until it's over,that also suggests that Kimmi doesn't get booted early)

1:Nick hugged Kimmi in a really sweet way and tried to solace her
when she was crying over the chickens.Perhaps Kimmi and Nick have bonded?
2:In the brief preview we saw last night,Liz was standing right next to Kimmi when Alicia goes storming off after a argument with Kimmi.Perhaps Liz has sided with Kimmi?

Here's another rumor about the next two episodes.

I found this link a long time ago but dismissed it as bs because of the air balloon stuff. Basically it says a contestant asks to leave before TC due to sickness. (pre-merger)

http://www.creditdiva.com/survivor/booted.html

But then I found this link, supposedly from the film crew, that supports the air balloon stuff.

http://www.rockandrollusa.com/SurvivorIITelevision.htm

On top of those, here's an interview with Mike that indicates sickness and injury during the game.
http://www.realityroxs.com/interviews.shtml

What do you think? Could eating feral pig make one sick enough to leave the game?

"This isn't your mother's game show!" - Alicia, (while watching Skoop gut a pig)

Interesting fact that I missed before.

In the RealityRoxs link:
Mike says, "There were two cheerleaders, Jeff and amber. Both were great and very competitive."

Now does this mean that Mike, Jeff, and Amber make the merger? Mike and Amber were in separate tribes.

We've seen so little of Amber.Who knows,she could be the female with the painted face in the opening scenes.Somewhere I read that Probst is quoted as having said that no one would guess who wins.At this point,Amber is certainly a dark horse.

That reminds me...I wonder if Probst even said that.Isn't the identity of the winner supposed to be unknown to everyone until the final episode airs?

The ballots are supposedly sealed, but Jeff Probst said on Letterman that he knows who wins. He may, he may not.

RustedEdges, I agree that this means Mike, Jeff and Amber were all in the merged tribe. This should not come as a surprise, since we have identified the possible bootees as Kimmi and Alicia in E5 and Jerri and Tina in E6. It also indicates that Mike and Amber both stuck around for a little while post-merger; Mike does not get booted in E7.

Siebured, I agree with you that the idea of a contestant getting food poisoning and having to leave seems MUCH more likely now, and the fact that the hot air balloon rumor (which was false) has an alternate source is helpful in not dismissing this all out of hand. Could eating a feral pig make you sick? Yes, because, unrefrigerated, meat goes bad VERY fast.

Let's assume it's true. The article imples that it happened before merger (since the person's tribe lost the IC). It doesn't have to be from the pig, but we know of no other source right now. If it is from the pig, it has to be Alicia, because Kimmi doesn't eat pig and Elisabeth didn't know who won the BC-Notre Dame football game. Maybe Alicia thought that the chickens were making her sick, and that's why she had the big fight with Kimmi?

I really don't like the sealed vote idea....I just don't see them doing it. It kills the suspense. I mean, really; Since everyone who got voted off stayed at the hotel, they'd all know who the final two are and since there are only seven people on the jury, it really doesn't take that long to just talk amongst themselves or for the other two to ask them. So by the time this final rolls around, these people have already known who won since December....It won't be a surprise; there just won't be any drama. Think about it, would you rather see a couple of hungry, ratty looking, weak people find out their fate....the winner overjoyed, the loser drowning in bitterness; Or would you rather see a bunch of people who look like they're going to some award ceremony with the winner already decided and no surprise to anyone whatsoever?

>
>RustedEdges, I agree that this means
>Mike, Jeff and Amber were
>all in the merged tribe.

...I disagree w/ the loic behind this assumption, that being the fact that Mike talked about "Jeff & Amber being the two biggest cheerleaders." It would make more sense for Mike to make his cheerleading observations pre-merger since at that point it wouls still be a TEAM game and players would be "cheering" for their tribe mates. Post-merger, it's every person for them self, so people would be less apt to "cheer" for others. Plus, it wuld b very easy for mIke to make the observation of Amber based on his time competing against her pre-merger.

I dont' disagree that all 3 make it to the merger, but I think the argument is flawed.

BTW, thanks for bailing me out on the summary from last week Ayatollah, you definitely raised the bar with your "from memory" absolutely hilarious summation. Speaking of which, I'll have the E#4 summary on the board by tomorrow...I'm halfway through it.

Yep, I jumped to a conclusion that Mike would only know Amber as a "cheerleader" if they were together in the merged tribe. But of course cheering would be most prevalent pre-merger, when you had a team! Duhhh. Thanks, shakes.

It could mean that Mike and Amber meet in the merger, or he could also be referring to the immunity challenges between the tribes.

Damn....I had her picked and now I find this stuff about her bf.
It still doesn't really completely save her; There could be many whacked out reasons that she didn't find out but it gives her a good chance of surviving the episode. And then my other pre merger pick is crushed. Well I figured Jerri would be going in ep 6 but if she does, then why won't she let her mom open the presents until after the final ep? That's two whole months later!

Okay so assuming the next two are women and that Kucha, then Ogakor are next, here's what we have:

Kucha:
Kimmi- Annoying but may be edited to be that way
- It's been said she's totally replacable
- Is a way too obvious choice imho

Liz - Likable, but the Jeff/Alicia alliance is eyeing her
- Seems to have her own mini alliance with Rodger
- Doesn't want her friends to watch (haven't been shown any reason why yet)
- Didn't know if her bf won when she got back
<like I said, there could be a lot of reasons for her not to find out....if she did, she could have asked one of the crew. It may have just slipped her mind at the hotel or she could also be the sick person who asked to leave.>

Alicia- Attended a party with Jerri, Mitchell and Colby
- "Allied" with Jeff
- Doesn't like Kimmi (or Nick, or Liz or the Liz-Rodger thing....all we really see of her and Jeff are complaints)
- Is pretty much low profile, at least to the viewers
but seems to have a secure position

Ogakor:
Amber- The phantom of S2....the most we've seen of her was
probably last episode with her making inane comments
on the Ogakor surroundings.
- Is loyal to Jerri as yet
- A friend reported that she lost a lot of weight

Tina - Wasn't mentioned by Jerri at the TC so is no longer a
side member of the alliance
- Seems to have joined with Keith as an outsider
- Is edited to be likable but seems vapid imho

Jerri- Took leadership of Ogakor from the beginning
- Is now at Colby's mercy (love that one ;)
- Gave her mother the presents, not to be opened until
after the final episode

Okay feel free to add to this or totally ignore it whatever.

And one more thing:

Liz is cute and all but she is not, I repeat ~not~ Colleen!

Just a couple of things I disagree with....

>
>Kucha:
>Kimmi- Annoying but may be edited
>to be that way

...4 episodes in, I dont' see the "annoying Kimmi" thing going on at all. Not since the first night has anyone voiced their displeasure with Kimmi. What I am reading on A LOT of messge boards is posters who PERSONALLY find her annoying, and are thus making the assumption that the survivors do as well.

So far, we have Rodger noting how hard she is working.
We have Lizliz offering her support (and her headress) during the IC.
We have Nick the invisible man comforting her about the chickens.
Everyone laughed when she voted against eating the chickens.

SUre, we see ALicia go at her next week, but so far I think she is more popular than even she believes...Alicia is the girl who finally cracked her first smile of the season in E#4, she's the one who's appears to be a moody bitch.

> -
>It's been said she's totally
>replacable

...only one person said that and it was ALicia...besides, with the "eating" challenge safely out of the way, she is a vcaluable contributor to the challenges, moreso than Rodger, Jeff and Lizliz (she was the one who took charge and figured out the puzzle in the RC)

>Alicia- Attended a party with Jerri,
>Mitchell and Colby

...I thought it was Alicia, Jeff, Jerri and Mitchell at the party? Either way, I would consider it to be of no cnsequence as far as spoiler info is concerned. Jeff, Alicia and Mitchell all live in the New York area, Jerri lives in LA, but I believe grew up in the area. It was a premiere party....I'm SURE that whoever put it together would make sure to invite ALL castmembers located in the area, not just the ones you ended up being friends with.

That's all the nitpicking I got for you, the rest looks good to me.

<<...I thought it was Alicia, Jeff, Jerri and Mitchell at the party?>>

I thought I had that one wrong, thanks for catching it.

And about Kimmi, I think I probably am going with board sentiment; I've actually really liked her since the 2nd ep.

... changes fast, doesn't it? I'll bet if we took a poll right after E4, Kimmi would have received 80% of the votes ... but if we take a poll on Saturday, Alicia edges her out. (This IS NOT a suggestion to start a poll thread early; I think we should have Superman start in on Tuesday afternoon, as we did last week.)

We discussed Jerri's "presents" that couldn't be opened until after the final episode on the temp board. They are clearly presents for her mom, but Superman (I think) suggested that they may be leftover items from the camps (similar to the way Richard and Kelly gave the "Rowdy Rudy's Kitchen" sign to Rudy at the S1 wrap party). That would explain why they can't be opened until the show is over -- and Jerri could still go in E6.

Ak, I would be honored to start the weekly vote, thanks for the nomination. The link to the article on Jerri and her presents is over on the temp board, subject line is interesting tidbits on Jerri.....

>On top of those, here's an
>interview with Mike that indicates
>sickness and injury during the
>game.
>http://www.realityroxs.com/interviews.shtml
>
>What do you think? Could
>eating feral pig make one
>sick enough to leave the
>game?

...I'd say it's typical Michael exaggeration -- note the full sentence:

"You'll see pain, starvation, sickness, injuries and virtually the edge of death on every show

Ya, right, every show...

And I still haven't come up with an illness theory that makes sense within that time line. Oh well.

Bear in mind that I am usually WAY off base on these things, I have a theory that Amber goes E5, Alicia E6.

I'm going to assume these are true:
1. 6M/4F merger.
2. Jerri makes the merger. (stays to shop)
3. Tina makes the merger. (immunity phone call)
4. Kimmi makes merger. (Debb comments & way too obvious)

So, what IF Okagor loses 4 immunities in a row? They boot their weakest member - Amber. (we do see Amber upset in next weeks promos)

Then in E6, Kucha loses immunity and decides to boot one of their stronger members because they don't want to compete against them individually. I guess Liz could be considered strong but, if it were me, I'd rather not compete against Alicia.

I don't know much about the facetime theories. I'm sure this doesn't fit because Amber is practically non-existent.

This is just and idea so feel free to rag on it until it dies.

Couldn't find the original thread, it was taking too long (my pc is sloooow)-I emailed the scans of the Kimmi postcard, so it's all up to SB now. Thanks for the suggestion! I stand by the theory that she goes soon, too.

Okay there's a bit more that can be put here to confirm a Liz boot. It's not really much but I guess everything counts.
This is assuming the tribes merger with 6-4 Kucha-Ogakor and Men-Women.

There's a small thread on here called "website" and it may be nothing but it is interesting that only
colbydonaldson.com
aliciacalaway.com
jeffvarner.com and
rodgerbingham.com

are the same while all the others are nothing or set up sites.

This could indicate a final four (ie. Alicia can't go in ep5) although I really don't see all of these people as allies from what we've already seen of them and this is very very very speculative.

Another tiny piece of speculation is from another thread of mine.
It has to do with last season and this season's promos. The person who gets the boot is pretty much not shown at all. And there's the Kelly-Sue argument where we see them going at it but eventually Colleen gets the boot.

Alicia- Attended a party with Jerri,
>Mitchell and Colby

Where was Amber? Jerri without Amber? Maybe Jerri makes a deal behind Amber's back and gets her tossed to save her own skin?

If you believe the story, someone is supposed to get really sick pre-merger and ask to be voted off....with the 6-4 theory, we can narrow that down to the women. I'm assuming that it's going to be some kind of food poisoning so that would mean it's more likely to be Kucha (rancid pork anyone? ^-^) This could explain a Liz goes theory, and being sick would be a good excuse to miss her bf's game....but it could also be Alicia or someone on Ogakor. So it's not really much to go on but it can be a reason we should expect the unlikely.

Could that possibly have been Mitchell last week? While he didn't get really sick (until after he got to the ranch and had a meal...he mentioned he puked a few times in one of those Early Show interviews on CBS's site), he was weak as hell and tired, and did suggest that Keith would be better for the team.

Aack....talk about the obvious. You're right, that probably was it. I guess I was expecting real sickness, not just weakness. (was Mitchell ever not weak?)

Jeff was sick in EP1. Debb said that's why she voted for him. She said Jeff said "I want to go home"