LAST EDITED ON 02-10-06 AT 11:16 AM (EST)

Survivor 12:
Exile Island
(aka Panama III)

Episode 2: Breakdown

Welcome to an emergency edition of the Survivor: Exile Island State of the Spoiling! Unfortunately, we fell victim to an international incident -- the failure of Australia's Nine Network to start Survivor at the same time as the U.S. Oz slackers.

So, after Flowerpower got us off to such a flying start last week, what do we now know?

Not as much as we think we did. For one thing, although we correctly pegged Misty as the exile, we had no idea who was going to get booted, because we thought that would be Misty too. Instead, it was bossy Tina from the older women's tribe. After that fiasco, Pepe started a "back to first principles" thread:

Episode 1 Post Mortem

"First principles, spoilers. Read Marcus Aurelius."

We've known for a long time that this episode would merge four tribes into two in a "schoolyard pick," where the last person picked picks the next person for the tribe (in boy-girl fashion). CBS confirms the pick in the weekly misdirection:

CBS Ep. 2 press release
See-BS Misdirection S12 Episode 2

When four tribes become two during a school-yard pick, the last Survivor fears the worst, but then is surprised when Jeff reveals a twist in the game.

One Survivor makes a major mistake and leaves the tribe disappointed, hungry, and still desperately trying to get food.

As the Survivors get to know each other, they waste no time forming alliances, leaving two feeling vulnerable and another two in a position of power.

One Survivor struggles to adjust to life on the island. Will he overcome the pressure or choose to leave the island forever?

Well, let's start with the first issue: the "last Survivor" in the picking promptly gets exiled but doesn't get booted. But who is it?
Exilee, episode 2

After a lot of debate between Shane and Bruce, the consensus seems to be that Bruce is the last one picked and thus has to go to EI. This time, exile has nothing to do with the RC -- and indeed, the key factor is that there's a vidcap of Bruce in the RC thread that shows him on Exile Island.

Flowerpower and Volcanic Glass started the vidcap threads for review for tribe alignment and challenge purposes:
E2 Preview Vidcaps
E2: Web Promo Challenge Vidcaps

In the first thread, we learn that Shane is the person freaking out (breakdown #1) and that the new tribe breakdown (breakdown #2) is as follows:

Terry (captain, La Mina), Sally, Austin, Misty, Nick, Ruth Marie, Dan.
Danielle (captain, Casaya), Shane, Courtney, Aras, Cirie, Bobby, Melinda.

In the second thread, the focus is on two things: who wins the RC and the IC? Right now, the thinking is that La Mina, with the ruthless Terry and Dan, is too tough for Casaya in both challenges, and Casaya ends up having to send someone home.

But whom? Scarlett O'Hara started a thread to discuss just this:

Episode 3 Boot Discussion Thread

...and in that thread, we find out that our old Rhode Island friend TDT claims that the boot is Melinda. Makes sense, if she was the last one picked on Casaya.

BUT ... how do we know Melinda was the last one picked? Well, because another old friend, Harold Balzaccio, seems to have seen a screener of the episode and has posted the entire summary of the screener, right up to the vote:

Harold Balzaccio Spoilers

Harry also tells us that the tribemate with the major blunder is Sally, who loses her tribe's spear, which it won in the RC. The tribe members feeling weak are Melinda and Cirie, for good reason -- and for a change, this relates to the boot, because one of them goes.

So, in the end, we have:

Exile: Bruce
RC winner: La Mina
IC winner: La Mina
Boot: Melinda

Looking forward to next week, we have an episode entitled Crazy Fights, Snake Dinners, to be followed by Starvation and Lunacy. Based on that, it looks like the two overriding themes this year are FOOD and MADNESS.

Then again, unlike the survivors, we have to keep a grip on reality. In Veruca Salt's ongoing analysis, we can see how some of the longer-term trends may be shaking out for this year ... even though we seem to have had the final group fairly well spoiled pre-season. But VS seems to have identified the issue with Shane thinking about Ostening quite well....

Oh, and on the topic of the hidden idol, you can see that there are many theories about where it might be ... including a few of us who think that Jiffy's over-emphasis of the word "why" to Misty might have been the clue to the location of the II. But this is merely speculation (for now).

Adieu from this graphics-free emergency Episode 2 SOTS! We'll return you to your regular purveyors next week.

Edited to add two pictures, just so this wouldn't look so barren -- and anyway, I wasn't sure if anyone recognized the quote....

Soylent Green: recycling America, one person at a time.

• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,Bravehart, 03:42 PM, 02-09-06
• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,Flowerpower, 04:57 PM, 02-09-06
• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,SurvivorBlows, 05:02 PM, 02-09-06
  • RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,PepeLePew13, 01:05 PM, 02-10-06
• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,michel, 05:03 PM, 02-09-06
• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,Brownroach, 05:08 PM, 02-09-06
• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,strid333, 06:01 PM, 02-09-06
• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,KObrien_fan, 07:08 PM, 02-09-06
• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,Scarlett O Hara, 10:02 PM, 02-09-06
  • RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,HaroldBalzaccio, 00:22 AM, 02-10-06
    • RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,Flowerpower, 01:45 PM, 02-10-06
• RE: Survivor: Exile Island -- Episode 2 SOTS,Outfrontgirl, 01:38 AM, 02-10-06

Great SOTS AyaK! Clear concise with terrific links! Thanks!

AYAK, AYAK, he's our man, if he can't do it no one can....HIP HIP HOOOOORAY!!!

Way to be there for us, AYAK! For an emergency edition it was absolutely top notch! Got the MAJOR details and the small ones too! Incredible and so well done and I thank-you so much!

fp

Woohoo, AK comes through with the last minute SOTS -- and takes it old school in the process (you know, that's not much bigger than the very first SOTS we ever had )

Thanks,
SB

LAST EDITED ON 02-10-06 AT 01:06 PM (EST)

Heh, thanks for the nice flashback to the past, Webby! I didn't remember that particular thread considering it's been 4 1/2 years since then, but interesting that I was the first to break up the "Blue Peep Party" as the first seven responses were all blue peeps. I also don't recall coming up with Diane as the most likely boot in the first episode of Africa from my analysis in that post...

Oh, and a super job of pinch-hitting and getting this emergency SOTS up on such short notice, AyaK!

Check out my Survivor Guatemala Finale episode summary

A Tribe siggie
"Tsk, tsk. Pepe's messing with the newbies again." Spidey, 3/30/05

The mark of a PRO! Good job!

Great SOTS, Ayak. After a brain-wrenching week, we get the whole episode handed to us. Wish I took the last three days off.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.