At the beginning of last season XC posted a thread "Opening Credits Spoilers". I found it very interesting and useful. Since it hasnt been bumped so far for this season, I did some analysis of the intro for this season and decided to start a thread on it (my first!). You can find the entire 412 frame opening sequence on Survivor Phoenix's video capture page. As background, I have pasted below XC's original comments below:"Hey Everyone. I've been lurking since the Amazon but haven't really felt the need to post anything spoiler worthy until now. I've never really put a lot of faith into the spoilers but I have always invested a lot of my attention into the editing, especially the editing of the opening credits. This season's editing has been driving me crazy so I thought that I could rely on something that I have always relied on in the past. The opening credits are the only part of the season that we see every week, so the editors obviously put a lot of care into how each survivor is reflected through them. I've looked through vidcaps of the openings throughout the seasons and have honestly pegged the winner because of the techniques used through the opening.
Although each season has its own tricks and unique attributes to the opening there is a basic framework that stands throught the seasons. Ever since thailand, the show intro has become formulized - every character has an action shot followed by a still photo. what the editors do with the action and still shot is the most telling.
Water - maybe its the whole "fire represents life" metaphor, but when the action shot is of the survivor swimming, they're toast. Examples of this is Eliza from Vanuatu (F4), Shawn from Pearl Islands (screwed by outcast twist) and Caryn from Palau (F5). The winner has never been shown swimming.
The Marooning - When the survivor's action shot is from the marooning, that is not good sign. Examples of this is Jolanda from Palau (first voted out), Burton from Pearl Islands (Outcast & F5) and Julie from Vanuatu (F5).
Challenge shots - There are two types of actions shots that editors use for the survivors' action shots. the first type of shots are blatently in challenge. examples of these are Leanne from Vanuatu (F7), Jenn from Palau (F4) and T from Pearl Islands (F7). this type of action shots are cursed as well. The other type of challenge shots are not cursed. these are the shots that at first glance do not seem to be in challenge, but through further investigation, they are. Sandra from Pearl Islands is an example of this. Her action shot is her walking cautiously through the jungle. At first I didnt recognize this to be in challenge but after watching the premier again, I realized that it was taken during the first reward challenge. My theory is that these shots do not high light the challenge themselves, but the character instead, so they are exceptions to the rule.
So what constitutes as a promising action shot?
Camp life - this is the most promising. Mark Burnett likes his winners to excell in the challenges, in the manipulation and in the survival aspects. Individuals who are shown in camp life shots are are usually fan favorites and the winner. examples are Steph from Palau (F7), Matt from Amazon (F2), Jenna from Amazon (winner), Chris from Vanuatu (Winner) and Tom from Palau (Winner). of course there are some exceptions, but these types are usually out really early: Brook from Vanuatu and Kim from Palau.
Still shots
for some seasons the still photos have been focused on infront of two different backgrounds:
Outback - Rocks/survivor logo
Thailand - Water running over photo/fire
Pearl Islands - Skull and cross bones/map
Vanuatu - Tiki/survivor logo on torch
When this occurs the winner is always in the minority of the two types. Tina was in the survivor logo group, Brian's picture was focused on infront of flames, Sandra's pic was infront of a map of the pearl islands and chris' pic was aken with a torch behind it.
Throughout the opening there are animal, scenery and tribe shots. these play a role according to the season as well. one rule that is always consistant since Marquesas is the "16 castaways" rule. When the opening credits show the "16/18 castaways" it is juxtaposed infront of the marooning of one of the tribes. The winner does not come from that tribe.
Marquesas - Rotu rowing to shore
Thailand - Sook Jai rowing to shore
Amazon - (Exception) first shows Tambaqui rowing then Jaburu
Pearl Islands - Morgan jumping off of the boat
All-Stars - Saboga walking onto shore
Vanuatu and Palau had the whole cast marooned together although the winner is except from these shots.
Now each season is unique and so are the openings. This is where the past can't help you find clues. only the season's themes can.
Examples:
Amazon - the Animal imagery
throughout the opening credits there are shots of birds catching fish. this is significant because Jaburu is the name of a bird in the amazon and Tambaqui is a type of fish. this imagery implies that a woman from jaburu will win the season. Which woman? Jenna is the only female who's action shot is her fishing. This is completely unique to the amazon, but that is what convinced me that she was the winner.
Pearl Islands - comparison of the first bootee and the winner
Nicole and Sandra's action shots are very similar. Both women are walking cautiously through the jungle in the first imunity challenge. The difference between the two is their still photo. sandra has the special background and nicole has the skull and cross bones.
All-Stars - Inversion
The usual order of the survivor's introduction is action shot and then photo. Tina, the first bootee, had her introduction inverted. Amber and Rob (Final 2) also had their's inverted. this gave away that one of these two would win the game. Amber is pegged the winner through this theory because Rob's action shot is mid-challenge while Amber's is a post challenge victory.
Vanuatu - comparison of the first bootee and the winner
The opening for Vanuatu is the best example of opening credits spoiling. nearly every survivor's placement of this season can be analyzed through the credits. Why Chris won is because of his comparison to Brook, the first bootee. of all the survivors, these are the only two shown in camp life shots which is unusual of a season. Chris is also shown with the logo behind his name along with Eliza, Lisa and Chad. Eliza wasn't a contender because her action shot is her swimming, Lisa's is her mid challenge and Chad is swimming as well.
Palau - The Pairs
During Koror's only pre-merge tribal council Katie revealed the tribes pairs. the opening credits did so as well. the pairs of the tribe are revealed as: Coby/Janu, Willard/Caryn, Tom/Wanda, Katie/Ian, Gregg/Jenn. Now, Tom and Wanda were never a pair. The credits imply that Tom is alone since Wanda never even made it onto the tribe. Even though the pairs were revealed differently in ep 5 (Ian/Tom with Katie alone) at the end of the season Ian clearly showed his devotion to Katie over Tom, giving her his place in the final two.
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Ok, so for my analysis:
Although last season Danni came from the tribe shown first after the marooning, I'm still betting that the general rule that the winner doesnt come from the first tribe shown. For this season, that tribe is the older men.
So far XC's action shot eliminations are 100% accurate, so here's who is eliminated based on those:
People eliminated based on their action shots being of the marooning: Dan and Shane
People eliminated based on their action shots being swimming:
Austin and Ruth-Marie
People eliminated based on their action shot being obviously mid-challenge: Bruce, Terry, Sally, Courtney, and Nick.
That leaves us with: Danielle, Misty, Bobby, Aras, Cirie, Melinda, and Tina who has already been eliminated.
Of these people, Danielle, Misty, and Bobby have non-obvious challenge pictures. Cerie is the only one shown obviously doing camp related activity. Aras and Melinda are both shown in non-action face closeups with a green background as their action shot.
Analysis of the still shots: There appear to be four types of pictures this season. The most common, and therefore the group least likely to hold the winner is the picture on fire. In this group are: Dan, Shane, Bruce, Sally, Danielle, Ruth Marie, and Melinda.
The second group also has their picture on fire, but they're picture in picture shots. In this group are: Terry, Courtney, Austin, and Aras.
Two people have no fire in their still shots, they are Misty and Nick.
Two people have a blinding light, Bobby and Tina. Tina's turns into fire though, but Bobby's does not.
So from this, I think everyone except Danielle (I'm not ruling her out based solely on being in the first group because there are a lot of other interesting things going on with her sequence), Misty, Bobby, and Aras. Cirie is also a possibility because of the very positive camp picture could outweigh being in the first group still-shot wise. The other thing to note about the still shots is that some have a ton of frames, while other people only have a few. I think those with less "face time" are not so long for the game. Each of the people listed above has a lot of face time for their still shot.
Of this group, four people's sequences stand out to me.
As for Bobby, he has the most unique still shot. But, I dont think this constitutes him as the winner.
Misty: For how quickly people have dismissed her, she has a very interesting opening sequence. She is in the no fire group and its picture in picture and moves around, she has a wierd action sequence in which her hands block her face for a while, I'm not sure what that means, also right after her is the shot of the lone island. I thin this may indicate her being the first exiled though. I think she has an interesting sequence, but I dont think she's the winner.
Aras: Aras is in the second group still-shot wise, but he has one VERY positive aspect - his action shot (as is Melinda's) is NOT an action shot, its of him in profile, with a green background. At the end of the intro there is a TON of green - the water is green, and there is a tree with a bright green background. I think this bodes very well for Aras. Especially since this is a very similar shot to Danni's last season when she had just a blue background.
Danielle: Danielle is in the first group still shot-wise, but she has some very interesting things in her sequence. It was noted that often the final two, or the winner and first booted have similarities. Well, prior to Danielle's shot is a picture of someone's arms reaching down (appears to be her) to help someone up by letting them step on her hands. In Tina's action shot is of her reaching up. I think this is significant. Also Immediately after her sequence there is a break before the other younger girls and a lone tree is shown across the water. There is a break from the older women prior to showing Tina.
So, as supported by the regular spoilers, it looks like Danielle and Aras are the most promising. A few other minor observations: I noted in the last thread, that in many seasons you could tell (only on Phoenix's site where you can see each frame) in the torch holder frames if the most prominent torch holder was a man or woman, and that has almost always been the sex of the winner. Last season two women were at the center of the group, and as we know the final two were female. This season its odd - at first it zooms in on a female, and then at the end it zooms in on a man. I'm not sure what to make of this other than that its a male/female final two.
Also, last season Nakum's flag was shown burning, and fire representing life, the winner was from Nakum. This season a survivor buff is shown burning. Its hard to tell the color - but it doesnt appear to be purple.
Whew! Thats it! I'd be interested to see what everyone thinks. Sorry about not putting up pics, I'm not sure how, and its most informative to go through frame by frame at Phoenix's site anyway. They have some posted at SurvivorFever, but its MUCH fewer frames, and misses a lot. Not to mention, this post is long enough as it is!
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-06 AT 02:11 PM (EST)Well guys, sorry I've been "MIA" for the last week or so. Life AND work have been very busy. But, I've gone through last week's videocaps over at Survivor Phoenix, have a few observations. I will try to post vidcaps of what I am referring to in a subsequent post, but I wanted to get this up before I tried to play with that...
I TOTALLY agree with the subject heading!! WHAT is going on with this??? The commercial slot is an interesting idea, but why change it up so much? So far according to Phoenix's videocap gallery we've had four different intros! The one from the first episode, then I guess this one and episode two's intro were the same. The intro for episode three was slightly different - the green water that was shown in ep. 2 and 5, was a shot of the tree with green sky behind it in the ep. 3 intro. Four of course was the new full length one. Because of this, I am more convinced that something is up with the changing intro this season. Will we get yet another version when the tribes merge??? Perhaps. Based on the last five episodes, I'd almost bet on it...
So, lets analyze. First of all, the switching of the green tree and the green water in the short intros. WHY would they change ONLY this??? I think that at the very least, this highlights the importance of the green - and now its just Aras who has the green background in both long versions. I think this bodes well for him. The other thing I noticed about the shortened intros is that only five survivors are shown in the whole thing, and each is a shot of them in the boats at the marooning. Shown is the entire "old men's" tribe, and the young women's boat is shown, but only Misty is seen. Misty is already gone, but I think adding this on to the men's boat being shown at the marooning in the regular intro - I don't think any of the older men win the game.
Ok, so the revised long intro for episode four: Three people's shots changed, the rest stayed the same. Melinda and Cerie's action shots changed. Cerie went from a promising camplife shot, to a challenge sequence. This of course, is not a good sign. Would they change it up to throw us of track? Sure, why not? But, I think the rule still holds. There is nothing else about her sequence that lends toward her being the winner. Melinda is already gone, so why change her shot? Its a similar shot, but it is different, and this time she's wearing a hat. I'm not sure why this changed.
The other person's change was VERY subtle - Bruce's still shot picture changed from his face being on the right in the first episode, to it being on the left now. Why the change??? Is it a subtle way of saying that he switches sides on his tribe? I have a feeling he will when the time comes, so perhaps this is an indicator of that.
There are a few other things that I noted about the intro that may be of some importance. I had mentioned in my first analysis that Danielle's hands (actually Ruth Marie's, but made to look like Danielle's) reaching down, then hands reaching up before Courtney's sequence (Actually Dan's hands) could be significant. Well in this new intro we have YET another set of hands shown, this time after Austin's sequence showing someone reaching down and pulling a boat. Since Courtney and Austin are eliminated from winning because of their respective action shots being during a challenge, and in the water, I think Danielle is the one that this bodes well for, especially as its made to look like she's helping someone up. I think too though that it speaks to Courtney and Austin's roles in the game. Courtney has hands reaching up, perhaps it refers to her attitude pulling the team down? Austin is reaching down and pulling the boat along - perhaps it refers to his attitude pulling his team along? (he does seem to keep spirits up) I'm reaching on that one (pardon the pun), but hey, this is speculation.
Aras is the only one of all the survivors to have an intermediate shot both before AND after his sequence. The first is the bird flying behind the tree (which has been shown in all of the four intros), and after his still shot is a shot of the lone tree in the distance. I think this coupled with the green background really highlights Aras.
The only other interesting thing I noticed is that Terry's sequence followed Misty's, but a shot of the exile island skull was placed between their sequences. Linking both of them to exile island - the first exilee, and the one who finds the exile island immunity.
Well, thats it. I'll try to bring in some vidcaps and post them in another post, but I wanted to get this up.