"I seem to remember that he then went to Panama (for Pearl Islands) with what results I cannot recall as I missed that season. I have a vague idea that CBS may have put out disinformation--being forewarned of his activity. Is that a bad recollection?"

If I remember correctly, CO got several things wrong in the beginning but he nailed the boot order from F7 till the end.

Agreed on "intel" - at least we can focus on the relevant stuff here and avoid reading any books...

forehead

LAST EDITED ON 12-15-05 AT 10:55 AM (EST)

I'll third you both on "intel" -- it's such a ludicrous term to use.

Edited -- oops, I have to delete my comments to forehead cause I just realized you were talking about Panama, not the Amazon. But I don't remember CO spoiling a final 7 order for Panama. Did he?

OFG, I do believe his details are likely to be more accurate this time around since he was getting them while the game was in progress and/or just wrapped up. I think he was in the Amazon at least a month after that game was over, so the locals' memories would have been much more spotty.

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On Survivor Live, or whatever the internet show is called, this week didn't Melinda say she never met Bruce? I believe his name was mentioned and she said "I never met him and the only things I know about him, I got from Shane." That could confirm he makes the jury or just that she didn't meet him during the game.

Hi guys!!! Im glad to see you guys are having fun with the spoiler info! Its nice to see a group actually talk about all avenues instead of arguing with one another.

Let me start by thanking both The ChillOne and Wickchix for the information they have collected and shared with us. I believe both have acted in good faith, trusting their sources, making every effort to insure reliability. Nonetheless, contradictions exist between their sources and only this season’s finale will settle it once and for all.

In the mean time, how do we reconcile the differences or weigh their relative reliability?

Festerfan does an excellent analysis in this thread and points out one of the significant differences between sources…”CO is a known quantity, but he's getting his info from locals, I believe, whereas Wickchix isn't as well known (Sera, anyone?), but seems to know someone who works on the show.”

The ChillOne was first with his information, and it came from local sources on the ground in Panama, which I believe makes it less susceptible to tampering. I think CBS was caught off guard by its accuracy, and quickly set out to launch a misinformation campaign using people “who work on the show” as the conduit. I believe The ChillOne spoiled the final four and forced CBS to scramble and create doubt, in an effort to keep us wondering until after the finale. Wickchix may be the unwitting accomplice to the resulting misinformation campaign.

Initially, The Chillone reported…”Military guy ... with Air Force roots and possibly even an astronaut. His name is Barry (or Jerry). Might be the leader and most in control. The intel is that this guy is really kicking ##### in the challenges. He wins the family reward challenge. Possible Final 4 candidate.” In hindsight we can conclude that information about Terry and Dan were merged into one composite, while the other was the…” Unknown person at this time”.

It makes sense that information about the “Military Guy” in the Airforce and the “tall skinny guy” who turns out to be an Astronaut, could get muddled up, especially if they end up in the final two together.

In Episode 1 we saw Terry and Dan make an alliance to the end, and while this contradicts “Strategies Revealed…”, the editors might have made an exception, if the story line was all about the integrity and “code of honor” these tw guys share. Terry may keep winning Immunity Challenges and take Dan with him to the end.

The information provided by The ChillOne is somehow innocent and naive, which for me, gives it more credibility. While the information of Wickchix is “sourced”, and perhaps from a CBS insider, which makes it more susceptible to tampering.

TDT’s Survivormeter has Dan the Astronaut listed “pre-jury” and vulnerable in EP3. He appears to believe the Tall skinny guy is Aras. TDT seems unconvinced that Wickchix is right about the astronaut finishing third, and if TDT has doubt, so do I.

The Chillone seems very confident about Danielle and Cirie as 3rd and 4th. I’m sticking with The ChillOne for now…

Krautboy

LAST EDITED ON 02-14-06 AT 06:40 AM (EST)

Excellent thoughts there, KB! And thrilled to see you in these parts. I am so glad that you showed up with these strong thoughts, striking a position between these two spoilers. It will indeed make us re-evaluate our own personal positions regarding this spoiler info. While CO may not have everything to the letter, I tend to lean toward him with his info, then with Wickchix as well. I also think that Dan is headed at the very least toward the jury. At this stage of the game, it is clear that Wickchix continued to get more specific info after her initial intel....she originally stated that the show would once again start out with a very long hike....which we were able to discount really before the start of the show. Not a good sign, imo.

TDT seems to have a reliable source as well, which does give me some pause.

ETA: Welcome to our boards, Wickchix! Why don't you hang around and chew it with us!

TDT has now confirmed that Dan is gone this week, which in turn confirms that Aras is most likely the "Tall Skinny Guy".

It will be fun to watch the editing leading up to the final episode, knowing what we know...

The Chillone is firm about Daniele and Cirie finishing 3rd and 4th, which fits with the rumored 2-2 vote at f4,decided by a fire-building challenge.

Terry and Cirie voting against Aras and Danielle, Cirie losing the firebuilding, Terry completing his immunity run with a final immunity victory and selecting Aras over Danielle to face at TC.

On the other hand, if Terry's Challenge run ends at F3, Aras or Danielle would be foolish to take him to the f2, in which case Wickchix scenario works just as well.

The ChillOne vs. Wickchix debate continues...

Krautboy

Hello, I'm a long time lurker, and will keep it that way in the future too simply because I often haven't got any time to post even if I liked to. I'd like to say that I've learnt to appreciate both C1's spoiler info and Krautboy's through and balanced commentary. I agree with Krautboy on considerations about the C1's sources - especially since C1 himself has admitted there is possibility his sources have mixed up information about contestants.

However, I'd like to add my consideration about the identity of "The Tall Skinny Guy". I tend to agree with TDT on the "Tall Skinny Guy" being Aras or than Dan. This is the most logical option, since C1's source told him there will be a tie between Cirie and Danielle in the F4. I believe this will indeed happen, since C1 has a history of spoiling the end game better than earlier events. A voting stalement could only happen if the two other F4 contestants, Terry and "The Tall Skinny Guy" voted for a different person. Based to our current knowledge I find it highly unlikely that Dan wouldn't vote with Terry at the F4, since they seem to have a mutual respect that goes beyond a simple early F2 pact.

Krautboy - Great stuff... However just in case if you didnt see another post i posted before the cast was announced. I did indeed get the astronaut and the pilot confused. It is the pilot that i said to make 3rd. Dan is nowhere in my equations of the top spots. Terry, which chill said first to win a ton of IC was also confirmed by my source. Also was told he would find the idol. From what i was told, Terry was THE MAN this season, however, fell short at the 3rd mark.

Wickchix:

We are honored that you stopped by to shed shed more light on the subject. Sorry I was incomplete in my analysis. Hope you'll stay around to discus with us and set us straight.

If Dan leaves in the next few episodes, that will certainly put the spotlight on Aras and add more fuel to the ChillOne vs. Wickchix debate.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts... and your spoiler!

Krautboy

No, no debate please

Look at it as just peices to a puzzle that may or may not fit.

Im just wondering now how big of a part the II plays. And if it makes people vote differently if they know. However, if terry goes on a immunity run, will it even matter?

I think having the II could still matter a great deal, particularly if Terry is on a run.

Think about it. Terry gets "traditional Immunity," and when you go to vote, you KNOW he isn't going, but there is still the lurking terror of the immunity idol.

How many times will alliances be able to keep a consistent target when they may be forced (repeatedly) to think THREE levels down into reversals on the Eviction?

(before tribal council)
"We can't vote for Terry, because he won. Fine, we'll all vote for, X."

(at tribal council)
"Blast! How did X get the idol?"

(after the idol reveal)
"Did we actually settle on Y as our second choice, or was that Z?"

Thought it would be a good time to review the major pre-season spoilers...

CO: Well, it's clear now that the "blonde highlights girl" is Sally. Will she be F7 and leave right before the episode with the Family Reward?

Bruce will be exiled early in the game and come back to help his team win the IC....was this CO or WC?

Wickchix: WRONG: show will start out with a long 2 day hike, first tribe will not eat for 10 days
Right: First boot is female, Terry, the pilot, will find the hidden II.

? Second tribe will not eat for 12 days...

LAST EDITED ON 02-24-06 AT 10:56 AM (EST)

Bruce will be exiled early in the game and come back to help his team win the IC....was this CO or WC?

FP, this was ChillOne and he said "next" challenge without specifying RC or IC. Technically it's correct regarding the IC, although Bruce wasn't hugely responsible for their victory.

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