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Original Message
"State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 02-15-05 at 11:44 PM
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 06:28 AM (EST)




Episode One

It is time to bring all of the spoiling, speculating, and vidcap analyzing from the last 2 months, all into one thread. If you haven't had the time to keep up with the threads in the off-season, you can catch up here in one shot. Welcome to a new season of Survivor! Before we go much further, I just want to remind you to please read the Board Guidelines if you haven't already. What was learned during Survivor Vanuatu? Pepe Le Pew started this thread and many of you have added some great insight that is useful to spoiling.
Survivor Palau

Introduction
Survivor Palau promises to begin like no other Survivor season has begun, the castaways will begin as one group of 20, with three being sent home in the first episode. This claim was made in CBS' official press release. It was also said that players would get no help and no instructions. Palau is host to some of the clearest waters around, and was also a deadly hot spot during WWII. This will most assuredly be a big part of the theme of this season. In the promos we see skeletons of wrecked ships and planes, the tribal council area is modeled after a japanese bunker, and the buffs are camoflauge.

Episode 1 Title- "This has never happened before"
Credit Brownroach for bringing the title over from Sucks. We learn from the early promo that everything the survivors have come to expect will be wiped out in the first 10 minutes. In this thread you will also find discussion of the quote from Mark Burnett that some will be lost for real and that 2 survivors don't make it to the first challenge. More on this in a minute, let's meet the castaways for Palau. (Since the first episode is only 60 minutes long, you may get more out of this introduction than you will in the actual episode.)

The Castaways-
(Click on the picture of each survivor to go to the biography and speculation page)


















There are many great threads that talk about the cast. In Krautboy's weight loss spoiler thread we learn that Ibrehem, Gregg, Stephanie, Caryn, and Jonathan were all reported to have lost some weight. How much of this is real and how much of this is hoax? You can check this thread and read up on the history of hoaxes and how spoiling has changed from season 1.

Threads that have plenty of pictures and other information on the cast are the confirmator posted by Clemson Beav (With one of the names on the list pegged by our very own Tribephyl!) and Flower Power's cast photo album. More pictures that show many of the cast members with army style canteens strapped to their belts. Finally, caps from PMSPML and The Early Show will give you a good idea of each players character.

Potential player strategies, editing, and confessional counts-
Editing, players strategies, and confessional counts are all a part of the big picture in trying to spoil the season as well as each episode. Veruca Salt is back to keep her editing posts alive. In here she has included pregame comments by Host Jeff Probst and speculates on how each player will do. Risti adds a very interesting thread with a different spin on the editing. Because of all the models and pretty people, it looks like survivor is going for a 'show' as much as it is a game. Krautboy gives us the pregame confessional analysis, and reminds us that strategies revealed do not succeed.

How does the game begin?
First off, we know that they begin as one group of 20. Since 2 will be gone before the first challenge, Pepe Le Pew has some prophetic speculation, Would they actually consider something like a pick-em scenario (like when Jake and Jan picked out tribes to start S5 Thailand) and then when they get to the last two, Jiffy says "Guess what? These two are gonzo." The answer we find out after various promos and lots of speculation, is yes.

We know that while rowing to shore, Jeff approaches them in a boat and gives them the instructions that they are heading to the island, it is marked with a green flag. The first male and the first female to reach the flag will win immunity.

So the boat nears the beach and they all jump ship. Now do they jump ship at that point from shore because of an artillery blast of some sort, or do they just decide they are close enough and once one jumps they all jump? Lots of info here including a seating diagram of the 20 people in the boat by Fester Fan.

PMSPML and Flower Power were advocates of the scenes of the players jumping ship so quickly had to be tied to the ladies running on the beach in this shot:

And in fact, that is the way things turned out. Jolanda and Ian will win the first competition and will become the captains in the 'pick em' for selecting tribes. Only they don't know that yet. The tribe lives together for a day maybe two before they have to go to select the tribes. This gives them a chance to meet everybody, and get to know them to some degree.

Tribe selection-
It is speculated that the 20 players will now row to the 'pick em' spot, which after the tribe selection and 2 players leave, there may be the first challenge directly following, it is hard to tell. There is a possibility that there could be 3 tribes, we have seen 3 buffs. But going on the 2 people that won immunity and several other factors, it is more widely speculated that they will be picking 2 tribes of 9 players each. The last 2 players, 1 male and 1 female, will have to leave and won't be on a tribe.

The tribe names are spoiled to be Ulong and Koror named after 2 of the islands. The picking process is speculated to be a chain pick em. So for example if Jolanda picks first, she picks a male, when it is Ulongs next pick, the male picks a female that he wants on the tribe and on down the line. According to Probst, the process is brutal and very much like the feeling of being in the school yard waiting to be selected to play kick ball. Only the 2 that don't get picked here go home, much higher stakes, and therefore it will be quite an emotional time.

Going on the best information we have, it is speculated that Wanda Shirk the singing school teacher, and Jeff Wilson the young stud, won't get picked to be on a tribe. SNEWS appears to possibly be thinking something different, but if so what? Fester Fan makes some great points in that thread that Wanda and Jeff are vacant in all of the promos and confessionals, as if they are non-existant.

Tribal break down
More speculation, some based on best guesses, some based on visual evidence of buffs, and some based on sourced spoilers that may or may not be true. That being said, here is the latest educated guess by Krautboy:

Ulong Tribe: 9 (5 women…4 men)

1.Jolanda (Captain – first picker for Ulong) (Bianca/CMC)
3.Jonathan (CMC) (weight loss?)
5.Kimberley (buff vidcap)
7.Bobby Jon (buff vidcap)
9.Stephenie (vidcap)
11.Gregg (???)
13.Angie (buff vidcap)
15.James (CMC?)
17.Ashlee (vidcap)

Korror Tribe: 9 (5 men…4 women)

2.Ian (Captain - first picker for Korror) (vidcap)
4.Jennifer ( Animation…not Ulong?)(Vidcap emotional with Caryn)
6.Ibrahem (CMC) ( Weight Loss) (Flirting with Jenn-Korror?)
8.Katie (weight loss?)(???)by process of elimination.
10.Tom (CMC)
12Caryn (TDT vidcap)
14.Coby (vidcap)
16.Janu (buff vidcap)
18.Willard (CMC?)

Eliminated: 2

Jeff (MSN)
Wanda (eliminated – VG)

I think Gregg is on Koror tribe though because he appears to have a brown buff around his neck in the photo with Janu. Also, if you look at the top rung on the wood rail, the left side is painted blue, and the right side that Gregg and Janu are in is brown. But I also think the tribes will be gender balanced, so who would swap with Gregg...?

ETA: Krautboy and the other speculation was just about perfect. We now have visual proof of the tribes and their make up, thanks Survivor Shrine. Gregg is on Korer and Ibrehem is on Ulong. It appears that Jonathan is the last male not picked instead of Jeff, but this makes a lot less sense. He must have made a huge early error in order to not get selected over Jeff or Willard.

The challenge
We don't have a whole lot to go on here. There seems to be bits and pieces of various challenges and some caps that are from the dream team rehearsal in the TV Guide special. Not much in the latest weekend promo either, but we do have this clip:

Janu and Gregg in a military style challenge. There is also this picture showing potential challenge props:

In that picture we do have green on a couple of the tires, which is part of the spec for the possibility of 3 tribes of 6. However, the dream team ran through a future challenge and used 2 tribes of 8 (most likely E2 challenge). So with no clear challenge caps, and no totally clear indication of which tribe would win the challenge, we are forced to speculate on who the potential first boot could be.

Pick the bootee-
We can rule out several players because of vidcaps showing them competing in water challenges. The main possibilities are-

Jonathan- he was quoted as saying "If you are the first one booted, you might as well not come home."

Jolanda- She is tough, even though she is strong physically she may intimidate too many people right off. Brownroach believes she is the one.

Tom- Jeff Probst was hoping he would stick around long enough to be our hero, and there were some false spoilers out there about him...to mask a boot?

Janu- Has to be considered a possibility, she seems to be bonding with others in the pictures but you never know.

Katie- Low face time, not much of a weight loss, a jokester that might rub people the wrong way.

Ashlee and Bobby Jon are most likely not candidates for this weeks boot because episode 2 is titled "Love is in the air, rats are everywhere", and they have been known to flirt with each other.

The immunity necklace that Jolanda wins for racing to shore is only good as being the captain of the pick em, once her tribe loses the first challenge, she is no longer safe and gets the boot. I can still hear Wanda singing now:

Don't forget to vote.

SOTS is provided by SurvivorBlows.com as a service to our readers. The purpose of this post is to consolidate the threads in the Spoiler Forum pertaining to this week's episode. Feel free to reply to this post if you feel that a theory you support was not adequately represented in this message... Please use this thread for unified discussion of all topics as we approach the next episode.


S10 PTB Sign up HERE

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 02-15-05 at 11:58 PM
Excellent, Katie! You've done a terrific job of cobbling all the threads and a myriad of ideas together into a coherent and surprisingly easy to follow SOTS.

Oh, and thanks for the shout-outs! Hopefully I haven't been barking up the wrong trees with some of my ideas...



Scratch and sniff
"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by Krautboy on 02-16-05 at 00:13 AM
KOB: Outstanding SOTS! EP1 is always the toughest and you seem to have pulled it all together and nailed it!

Thanks!


Krautboy

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by dreamerbeliever on 02-16-05 at 01:27 AM
You always amaze me Kat. Thank you for bringing us last minute spoiler readers up to speed. Fantastic job!


"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by tribephyl on 02-16-05 at 05:42 AM
Fantastic job KO!
The first one is always the hardest because of the amount of thresds and info one has to go through to "catch-up" on the spoiling. No one does a better job at compiling and abridging then you. And I lvoe you for it.

By the way, I lvoe the new graphic and the castaways links/pics are top-notch.
My only complaint is the non-shoutout for actually getting a name correct on the confirmator. But then if I have to, I can toot that horn all season long by myself.


Sn'DCS©MMIV

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 02-16-05 at 06:06 AM
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 06:17 AM (EST)

Sorry Tribe, you are absolutely right! I had so much to get in and the confirmator is one of the oldest threads, but let there be no doubt, that was an awesome find!

I edited my SOTS to include that info.


S10 PTB Sign up HERE

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by biancaxxx on 02-16-05 at 06:24 AM
I got one too!
I wasn't a member at Blows though when I got Angie's.
"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by Flowerpower on 02-16-05 at 07:32 AM
KO, you have mastered the incredible task of completing the first SOTS! I say WELL DONE! Very thorough, and great links! As par usual, your graphics are the best! Can't believe you squeezed in the pics of the II and the completed tribes to boot! I knew this SOTS would bring it all together! Thanks so much!

Fp


Now she can help the rest of us with our SOTS!!!

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by pmspml5 on 02-16-05 at 09:56 AM
Once again you have set the bar high for the rest of us. What an awesome SOTS KO. Way to pull all the information together - and there was a lot to do. Are your arms tired yet?

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by greg2557 on 02-16-05 at 10:08 AM
KO Thanks, Very nice.This really makes it easy to catch up on everything.
"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 02-16-05 at 10:49 AM
With Jeff now a part of a tribe, and part of the losing tribe at that, we need to now strongly consider him as the Episode 1 boot along with the others that are speculated to go.


S10 PTB Sign up HERE

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by emydi on 02-16-05 at 10:58 AM
NICE JOB KATIE!!!!

Thanks



Handcrafted by RollDdice

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by Brownroach on 02-16-05 at 11:25 AM
Totally fantastic job, KO, but of course that is totally unsurprising.

The elimination of Jonathan may make sense if we consider how Jolanda might start the chain. She doesn't seem to be bonding with anyone, so she may go for the strongest guy -- Jeff, whose physical fitness Probst promised we will see early on. Then starts a chain of friends picking each other until Jonathan gets left out in the cold.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 02-16-05 at 11:47 AM
I actually think Jolanda will go for picking Ibrehem first, he is strong too.


S10 PTB Sign up HERE

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by emydi on 02-16-05 at 01:04 PM
I agree KT



Handcrafted by RollDdice

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by aethelstan on 02-16-05 at 11:30 AM
Great SOTS Katie! You had some big shoes to fill and you filled them out very nicely. Way to set a great standard for the season!


©Kittyloaf Creations, 2004
Winter warning in effect.

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by forehead on 02-16-05 at 01:38 PM
Great SOTS, KO!

Am I the only one to think that the Janu pic in TV Guide is like the Heidi pic in the S6 ep1 IC on her way to win the IC?


Close but no car...

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by TeamJoisey on 02-16-05 at 02:15 PM
Wow!



These reality show contestants need a reality check!

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by strid333 on 02-16-05 at 03:28 PM
Though I have written a few SOTS before, the people who have written the first episode SOTS always amaze me, and you aren't the exception to the rule.

Though I'm still not sure of all the characters yet, I think I know who to vote for this week.


Three is the perfect number.

"Apologies if this is already posted"
Posted by Surveysez on 02-16-05 at 05:59 PM
but this article in my local paper today

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/CalgarySun/Showbiz/2005/02/16/932249-sun.html

Probst says the confusing start really "pays off" because the producers put into the players' heads that Palau is a slightly different game.

Viewers will see that difference for themselves when the first two Survivor Palau contestants get booted. They don't get kicked the traditional way at Tribal Council. They are victims of a tribal pick 'em. Two players aren't selected to be on a tribe and therefore must leave the game immediately.

"It is brutal. It is the same feeling you have when you're not picked on a schoolyard or when you're the first guy laid off. At its core, without question, Survivor is a social game and that is put to the test right away. These people in essence never really get a chance to play this game and yet they go through all the work to get there," says Probst.

"There are more firsts this season than we have ever had," says Probst of the new season which kicks off tomorrow on CBS and Global. "That's what struck me as the season went on and on. Some of them are twists. Some of them are things that happened organically and some are a result of challenges, but there are more things you have never seen before this season."

Calling Palau the "water season", Probst promises the challenges on this the 10th instalment are the most physical and original ever.

"The visibility underwater was so good we decided to pull out a lot of challenges we have been sitting on. In the first three or four episodes we have some of the most physical challenges I think we have ever put on in terms of endurance and needing to be physically fit."


I child proofed my house and they still get in.

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 02-16-05 at 06:26 PM
Dynamite SOTS!
The SOTS are always wonderful, but I think this format is the best intro to the new season I have seen. Congratulations. I marvel at your skill!

All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by alwaysintruble1 on 02-16-05 at 06:53 PM
Wonderful job with a whole lot of info to sum up! Thanks for taking the time to make it easier for the rest of us.


The shortest sentance is "I am." The longest is "I do."

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by LookeeLoo on 02-16-05 at 08:47 PM
I have been waiting for this SOTS and it is fantastic. Thanks!

LookeeLoo

Another Dicey Original 2004

"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by Yogi on 02-16-05 at 09:20 PM
Excellent job Katie! Well done! Thx..


"Great Job!"
Posted by volsfan on 02-16-05 at 09:34 PM
But of course I knew it would be.
"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 02-17-05 at 08:57 AM
Frankly, my dear KOFan, you are still the best of the best! Your ability to weed through all the volumes of pre-season spoiling and speculation and widdle it down into a clear, concise and orderly presentation is just amazing! Your use of graphics is also magnificent! You are a real artist! Thanks so much for all of your hard work on our behalf!

*SMOOCHES*
Katie Scarlett


"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by Fire Fly on 02-17-05 at 10:57 AM


AMAZING !!!! ASTOUNDING !!!! FANTASTIC !!!! IMPRESSIVE !!!! MAGNIFICENT !!!! STUPENDOUS !!!! SUPERB !!!!


In one word .... WOW!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for getting us going on a new season !


"RE: State of the Spoiling S10- Episode 1"
Posted by samboohoo on 02-17-05 at 04:39 PM
Katie, you ROCK! Thank you for all of your hard work. I got lost a few weeks ago and never was able to get in and recover.


Crowned by Pooh. Decorated by Syren