I thought Tom had said 'it's a losing job', as in 'a tough battle'. He appeared to understand how difficult it is to build a fire that way, and didn't want to waste his strength on something fruitless. His eyes were set on the first challenge already, knowing that Survivors are almost always offered fire if they win the challenge.Just my take on things, dear Pepe. When watching the show, I didn't see his comment as being negative.
Wheeza
though it occurs to me now that you probably have your caption setting on your TV turned on, so I bet you saw the word, huh.
I agree Lookeeloo.I think editing proves that producers wouldn't have shown us the Angie/Coby "alliance" unless it was going to become an issue later on. I think it proves that both Coby and Angie are primed to maybe make it to at least the merge where his betrayal can be futher dramatized. Go Angie!
However, I don't neccessarily agree with this statement:"We were shown Coby and Angie talking. I agree with emydi that Coby "didn't pick Angie bc he did not want to stress his/her/their "weirdness." I think Coby would bond with Angie in a heartbeat outside of this game, but I think he felt that if they were both on the same team, they/he would be easy targets. Hence he didnt pick her. He is playing the game hard, but has risked ever having Angie trust him if they both make it to the merge."
I feel Coby didn't pick Angie out of peer pressure. Together, they would have made a great alliance, but Coby couldn't see this. He was blinded by the excitment of the moment and he chose someone considered a "safer" choice (as viewed by the rest of the team).
I don't think Coby is playing the game hard... but rather stupidly, otherwise he would have noticed that it takes more than a few tatoos or sexual orientation to be considered an "Outkast" on this show.Hey Yaaaa....Hey Yaaaa....
I think it was edited to bring a showdown/confrontation later on in the game.
Braveheart
The war theme has been put aside in favor of the area reclaming what was once hers, despite the great battles that once occured there.Like you VS, I see choices and consequences theme being put front and center.
1.Jonathan chooses to swim instead of staying with the boat and he is ultimately not picked.
2.Ian chooses a wise tribe.
3.Jolanda choosing to take to many objects while the other tribe choose only the fire. This played a role in Jo being voted out first.
4.Tom choosing to go to a different island, resulting in the boat being tipped and losing the fire to the ocean.The older tribe has the potential of an older person pairing up with a younger person in the tribe. This has always been a successful pairing in Survivor. Keep this one in the back of your mind.
The Katie and Tom quotes don't bode well for them.
If I'm not mistaken there wasn't a single negative quote or image associates with Ian...hmmmm.
Great job of getting this thread started again VS.
DRONES
fp No matter if I stated what you think or not, I always welcome your insight!db: interesting thoughts on feeling Koror is fractured as well. This is why I love this type of thread as the viewers can always see different things.
I see three distinct groups of three on Koror. On one side you have the obvious connection between Tom, Ian, and Katie. The pick'em proved their fondness for one another. On the side are Coby, Caryn, and Willard (the outcast feelers). Coby and Caryn have a clear connection and Willard might be along for their ride. Jennifer, Gregg, and Janu are a group of three who will be the swing voters on this tribe.
Your analysis is interesting. In my selection of the tribes I posted my thoughts on why who was picked where as it may give some insight on who is with who and who is low on the totem pole. Tom, Ian, Coby, Caryn, Gregg and Stephenie were all seen discussing or being discussed a an alliance. Therefore, I do feel this is why those selections were made (Stephenie missed out due to being picked by Ulong) I do still believe that "story" will play out or there wouldn't have been a focus on same.
Tom picking Janu primarily due to his observations with Stephenie standing there was no surprise. I would also not be surprised if Tom mentioned to Stephenie that perhaps they should "invite" Janu into their fold as well. Ian picking Katie FIRST mainly leads me to believe that there may have been a discussion with the two of them we were not privy to (hidden pair?)
At this point, I mainly look at Willard and Jen as two picked outside an alliance contention. I found it strange that Gregg did choose Jen (over Caryn) which then makes me question if Gregg did find her appealing.
It will be interesting to see if your theory plays out and we should keep an eye on that.
pepe - Tom certainly has a lot of fire surrounding him, the irony of his occupation. Fire we know is life though Tom deems it negatively. While they may perhaps recover their "fire" how will this play out for them as individuals? Tom I do feel is in good shape right now though his deeming fire as a useless job in the context of the symbolism may not bode well for him
drones, I've been waiting for you as well
The older tribe has the potential of an older person pairing up with a younger person in the tribe. This has always been a successful pairing in Survivor. Keep this one in the back of your mind.
If I'm not mistaken there wasn't a single negative quote or image associates with Ian...hmmm
We do love the May/December romances They do NOT have to be the Elisabeth/Roger variety either. Ian and Tom may be this couple; time will tell.
I too did not see anything about Ian in the negative regard. Considering he won immunity and was shown to us as a definite leader, it is with high expectation that I have Ian. Only James made note of the "fast little bugger"
There has been upcoming previews again of poor Angie. I'm not ready to shoo her away yet.
I wanted to also add this quote:
Coby "That's a good choice" (when BJ was selected) Again, throwaway or do the two of them meet up again. Coby apparently likes BJ but I always question why some commentary was left in when really it wasn't necessary.
Looks like someones got a crush on BJ ;)
I won't say much about all the others because I agree with most of everything written about each player, with one exception.I really think that James is going deep into the game and could very easily be the winner of Survivor Palau. His pre-game quote "I am going to be the first redneck to win the million dollars" and the way he was edited as a strong guy yet goofy protector type, puts him in good stead with all types. He can relate, and he can empathize, he can compete, he can state whats on his mind.
As for a final 2 partner...Coby is my leading pick for sitting next to him. Coby has shown already that he can influence the vote, but he also told us in pregame confessionals that he can be a bitch too. Depending on how he can maintain his relationships (he already lost a friend in Angie by not picking her for tribe), could make him the perfect F2 partner.
I am beginning to agree with you KO and the rosy future for James. He seems to be playing the good ole boy role but if you watch closely he sits back and watches everything going on around him. This combination of brains and brawn and the good ole boy charactor may be unique. This triple threat just might help him to go real far.RedBeard
I think he is safe on Ulong for now. But a tribal switch may do him in. He reminds me a lot of Chris...Chris when he ended up with females became the one they went to. James already seems to be who a lot of the women go to on U.Katie is consistent, she did so well last time with Chris!!
I'm hoping for Ian and the editing thus far supports my early favorite. Now if Ian would shave his head.....
Ian is my fave Koror. To me he is playing the Chris role on Koror to Toms Sarge. At this point in the game you dont want to be seen as the leader. Ian seems to be able to stand back and not make waves. Great traits in a second in command. Between the two of these men Koror should be in great shape. I feel that both will make it a long way in this game.RedBeard
LAST EDITED ON 02-22-05 AT 01:43 AM (EST)VS I found your editing analysis on Choices and Consequences to be quite intriguing.
It led me to this quote by Gregg while speaking with Caryn and Coby, "Honestly I am not leaning towards anyone".
Additionally, when Janu selects Greg JP asks, to an upset looking Janu "Are you upset?", She responds, "No its just kind of weird." Does Janu regret her choice?
If this season is about choices, can anyone stand uncommitted?
emydi, still pining for Chad lololI agree about Ian as I think we all do at this point. Ian appears to be able to handle the social aspects of this game which is just as important (if not more so) than any other aspect.
I think as it appears, Koror on the whole, is in good shape. Obviously SOMEONE will be booted at some point but there were no indicators from the first episode that they are in danger.
Ulong has many suspects and unless we see the show, we can never know what may cause a boot selection so we, based on the editing, can only presume who is more likely to go than others. Angie is the prime target per Mark Burnett. The tribe as a whole, however, are not fond of people trying to take over (which is a commonn boot reason) but there could be someone who is responsible for losing the Immunity Challenge and they may go. Now with the romance involved, someone may not appreciate that.
It seems for the most part that there are more who are unsafe on Ulong than safe. Based on editing, Stephenie appears to be someone MB invested time in. James, a great character seems safe but one never knows with the "character editing" Angie's editing is deceiving. Is a rose just a rose or do we have the Eliza situation...... target, safe, target, safe. With so many strong personalities, there appears bigger fish to fry. Those with hardly any showing would appear to be safe BUT the role of editing can only be used if there is something to work with.
While I mainly confine myself to this thread, obviously we have spoilers. This thread is not based on them so what appears in the editing and what is presumed by spoilers can be vastly different, however, I find this way more interesting We also try to see the long term game more than a weekly boot so with that Stephenie, based on the editing is the safest. Angie appears to be narrating her PERSONAL position but I feel she is safe if only because of the other dynamics going on. James appears also to be marginally safe as well. The others at this time can only be questioned until we see a bit more of them.
i love me a redneck that can weave a good tale and play a shrewd game.
Now, come on, Katie. Don't we already know that the winner must come from either the northeast US or the west coast?Well, except for Tina, she was the exception. An Chris, he was D'oh!
Funny how we haven't seen that poster again....
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LOL, yeah Stanley.I also remembered the other bit of irony in the editing that makes me think James is the winner. Tom stated that he didn't want to get stuck trying to start the fire because it was "such a losing job", and then they flashed to a shot of James trying to build a fire and having the bow break. How ironic would it be for the guy who picked a losing task like that to be the eventual winner? Plus we as viewers already know that building fire is a losing job, so why show us Tom's words?
I think we needed Tom's words to show us why a fireman wasn't trying to help start a fire. But to me James has pre-jury/soon after merge written all over him.
I'm glad to see some new "faces" here and hope (and demand! ) to see more of your thoughts in the weeks aheadWLR - Choices and Consequences (Does anyone else immediately think Pride and Prejudice ) apparently is the BIG theme with "war" as a secondary theme more/less in the setting of this season. I am prepared for Mr. Burnett to utilize this theme quite often with challenges, rewards and "twists" (Let's Make a Deal?)
Your mention (I hope I remember correctly that it was you) regarding Gregg's statement and the uncommitted is interesting. Does waffling or riding a fence cause a problem for those who do it or will it actually benefit them? We should know more about this in upcoming episodes
KO, always nice to see you I appreciate exactly what you say about James. Again, I'm divided on this contestant primarily due to how MB highlights his characters. For those like Angie, Coby, James and the like, we are apt to see more of them precisely because of their uniqueness which then makes me suspicious of their longevity. However, this is not always the case such as with Tom as a prime example. Tom of Africa would have been showcased if he went early or late (as he did). But, because of the "character" and highlight of same, I am hesitant to feel solid about their length in the game as the editing on them can be misleading.
I can say, after the first episode that his length of stay may be a little longer than I speculated BEFORE the show started in light of how the dynamics of Ulong seem to be unfolding. However, I'm still not sure on the surface that his "personality" will get him toward the end game. His quote was definitly noteworthy of course . His editing progress will definitely be one that I will apy attention to as well as some of the other major "characters"
...when I saw Tom say "it's a loser's job", I noticed that (I think, at least), all 4-5 people shown around the fire eventually ended up on Ulong. There was James and Kim and I think Steph and... well, I can't remember, but I watched it twice and was pretty sure they were all Ulong. I noted that as a possible foreshadowing quote, subtle as it was. This could suggest that Ulong go on a losing streak.
Yes, the people working on fire were all Ulong plus Jonathan.
L-R: Stephenie, Ashlee (leaning over with her back to us), Bobby Jon, Kim (barely visible), James and Jonathan.
Again, forgive my longwind statements but we had quite a bit yesterdayThe low man on the totem pole pick em selection would have been very useful in glancing at for this boot selection. Ashlee was a selection made low and all our discussions prior to the show reflected her as someone with short term status. Since we normally look at long term status here, Ashlee was not someone who was a long term possibility. Now that the members of Ulong are shown more in terms of alliances; we have a better idea of who is with who, HOWEVER, the main premise of this thread is more about each contestant’s editing and the long term projections so let's see how they fare so far.
Editing Patterns
Last season I had mentioned a pattern that “seems” to be consistent throughout each season. A potential winner usually is shown either “redeemed” in some aspect (example: Jenna) or “playing the game” consistently whether positive/negative (Brian, Richard, Chris, Sandra) or if not a clear and apparent game player is shown essentially neutral/positive throughout (Ethan, Tina) Vecepia we can determine was an exception due to the lack of visible editing. This is NOT tried and true, however there is a consistency.
With that, from this episode, there are a number of people who are readily identified but there are “catches” People with stories (so to speak; those who enjoy this thread have an idea of what I mean ) “generally” last a good portion of the game but don’t win (Leann, Rupert, Twilla, Rory and so forth)
I have rarely seen (as discussed last season) a winner shown extremely positive then negative. Chris and Brian may had negative dips in the latter part of the season but if we look back throughout their time, they CLEARLY showed us they were going to play this game which we know by now involves lies and manipulation.
With that I am now noting the levels of shifting in visibility and behavior. How this plays out long term should be interesting.
Visibility of Players
Some of the players have been consistent in their visibility. Only those that have essentially changed are being noted. Bobby Jon was seen quite a bit more this time around as opposed to his last showing. He was seen in a neutral light in my opinion. Aggressive and a bit tempered in the challenge but positive about Angie and diplomatic in speaking about the boot candidate. Kim was finally shown and hovered more in the negative light Although she participated in the RC fairly well, a big deal was made by her tribe over her lack of participation in the IC coupled with the mostly cynical comments about her flirtation with Jeff. She was also a boot candidate. Jeff’s visibility was raised as well and fairly negative. We saw his glee over Koror not having flint and his wish that it isn’t found along with his “issues” over Kim being a nominee for boot.
Due to the visibility “lift” this could indicate an upcoming problem for Jeff and Kim. Bobby essentially was not shown negative (challenge aggression is not a negative portrayal of the PERSON) so with that, he may last longer than the above two individuals.
Ibe was practically non existent in this episode. I would suspect even at this time we would have seen some of Ibe. Ibe had an opportunity to be shown discussing Jolanda’s vote and his concern over Ashlee’s wish to leave yet it wasn’t. In light of this, Ibe appears to be someone who may be there for awhile but not long term.
At Koror, there were no MAJOR changes in the amount of visibility however, Caryn was definitely shown in a negative aspect. As we discussed pre show, Caryn’s personality could get the better of her and it appears this will happen as evidenced by next week’s promo. This “dip” never seems to bode well in the long term for players hence I would not be inclined to believe Caryn is at the end (her character description led us also to have that idea about her despite “moms do well”) I will not touch on visibility with the rest of Koror at this time.
Playing The Game, Stories To Tell, No Story/No Game
This worked fairly well last season so I will take a “stab” on what I see right now
Ulong
Stephenie and James clearly are shown playing the game. This usually is a positive aspect for long term, DEPENDING on how they are shown as time goes on. If it stays fairly consistent, their prospects are good. Thus far, neither have strayed from a clear and concise game play.
Angie: Our story contestant Usually I give them high marks for awhile. Once their “story” appears to dwindle, I look for their demise. Angie is someone MB wants us to root for but usually we don’t see a win from them. If her story “changes” then I would suggest she may be gone not too long after.
Ibe: No story/No Game: Clearly Ibe is someone who could be shown more. I mentioned two aspects we could have seen but we didn’t. They are not relevant but if Ibe is someone who has longevity, I would suspect his “character” would be fleshed out more or humanized so to speak. At this time, Ibe appears to be someone going sooner rather than later.
Bobby, Kim and Jeff - Somewhat murky in terms of how much they are playing and not much story as I think Kim and Jeff's "romance" is purely more about tribe dynamics than a story for them Since Jeff and Kim came off more negative than positiveespecially since we did not see anything really on Episode 1, I have to conclude they are not long for the game. Bobby, on the other hand, may stay a bit longer if his edit continues as it is. However,again, we saw virtually nothing of this character despite all the pre show hype on him which I suspect was more to have viewers interested in tuning into the show.
Koror
At this point it is hard to determine the level of game playing for a tribe who has not lost thus far however, some on this tribe have offhandedly mentioned thoughts of what they wanted which could be indicative of future game playing.
Ian has a very positive, uplifting edit and it continues. It has been consistent thus far and it is quite evident Mark Burnett wants us to like this person. This gives me pause. With the “bad taste” that was left from last season, it raises my eyebrow that Ian is definitely a long term person. Clearly after the Veceipia edit, MB showed us immediately Brian from beginning to end. I wonder perhaps if now Mark Burnett is adjusting for last season and giving us a very likeable winner? Ian’s comments are left in; very positive and uplifting; there is reason for that. There has not been much regarding game playing but Ian had made note of what he wanted in a tribe as well as his determinationin the game (winning the run for the necklace, his quest for the fire, etc.) Mark Burnett could not give us more commentary from Ian
“It was like running a marathon and coming in first place” and “we lost the challenge but won the day” and “We are the Bad News Bears and we will come back”
Ian is a great narrator for his “little tribe that could”
Tom: We have already established a union between Ian and Tom. Tom clearly is being given a positive edit as well. I get a "Jake feeling from Tom" Notice how the decision of the camp fell on Tom’s shoulders by Caryn and quickly was shut down because Tom is not there to be “not liked” Tom’s edit is a difficult one, however, because there is always that one person we really like but eventually gets booted because frankly, they are just too well liked.
Coby: A clear game player from the first episode but nothing to play for in the second episode but it was established that he plays this game I think it is fairly certain he may be “key” when the tribe goes to Tribal Council for the first time and will stir the pot. At that point, we will see the extent of what his editing is all about but regardless that he wasn’t shown as much, I still believe he will be there for quite some time.
What about the others? Katie, fairly consistent in helping to narrate, but shown negatively in the challenge. On Ulong, this would be a death wish; on Koror, may not be immediately. Why not? Usually such a bad showing at a challenge would be discussed by someone/anyone yet we did not hear anything about this. The “older and wiser tribe” may “forgive” challenge mishaps but probably will not forgive discord. However, since Caryn was shown being negative about Tom, who is not to be shed in a bad light, Katie, should win this battle. Frankly, I see Katie as someone who lasts a good while but not at the end game.
Gregg and Janu remain consistent. No real game playing shown but negativity not a factor. Again, Janu has been raised in my opinion despite the thrown in rat situation which clearly bothered most of them. Jen again not shown in playing nor a story which is not the best scenario for her. Willard, no story, no game. MB did leave in his “wise” comment to Katie to prevail in the challenge. Again, does this help Willard stay longer than the normal “eldest boot” scenario. Ian deems wise as positive therefore will Willard lasts a bit longer than one of the more athletic members? I still do not consider any long term prospects for Willard but he may out last one of the others a bit.
The AlliancesUlong has shown a division which should be interesting. James and Steph lead the way with Angie (wisely) going with the best scenario as well as Bobby. The decision ultimately rested with Ashlee but we saw the way paved by Steph and James.
Ibe a man unto himself. No known alliances, voting decisions clearly based on his wants/wishes and again, no story, no game playing. I sense a FBI agent situation
Jeff and Kim - an alliance of romance. With nothing to showcase this, no buildup and just a brief glimmer; I see it heading south. The discord shown about this romance instead of amusement does not appear favorable. I’ve seen posters wonder if this is a Rob/Amber scenario. Clearly it is not edited the same way. We saw buildup, fun, questions by Rob/Amber as well as the enjoyment/questions/amusement/concern by their tribe. Jeff and Kim are no Rob and Amber and I don’t expect their game playing to be either.
Koror: At this time, we can mainly go on the original pick em to determine close alliance. Interestingly again, nothing ever shown between Ian and Katie yet Ian picked Katie first. It was already established that Tom and Ian have one as well (recall JP’s comments about Tom/Ian using the buddy system) and Katie picked Tom. I would suggest this is a close alliance. Caryn and Coby with Gregg were seen pre tribe and Gregg’s selection of Jenn would be a vote with them.
I would suggest Janu would be inclined to go with Ian/Tom/Katie/Gregg and I would think Willard will do what is best for him. Ironically, Caryn picked Willard perhaps as a shield for her; would it not be interesting then if Caryn is booted BEFORE Willard.
Things that make you go hmmmmmmmm?
A potential head to head batter with James and Jeff?
Jeff P. after the RC: While everyone was very excited about their fire, Jeff threw it and Stephenie caught it though it seemed that James was grabbing for it (Again, fire is life, Steph and James both game players but indicative Steph may prevail over James then)
Despite Ibe and Bobby voting to keep Jolanda, nothing mentioned about their feelings of Jolanda going nor any potential concerns THEY have about their longevity.
Second episode where we saw subtle hints of Kim’s potential wrath. First episode about betraying her she will pretty much kill someone and this episode pegging James down about her staying or going. When Kim does go, it won’t be pretty.
Angie: “A two person alliance is a strong alliance” (Angie needs a little help in the arena of playing the game, however interesting potential foreshadow of a current two person alliance failing miserably.
James: “Kim is gone......... for sure” and the humorous “Nobody is telling people what to do round here, we are not going to follow a leader, we are Americans and we are going to follow a democracy (while they then pan to a tribe of completely inept looking Ulong. The search for lead and apparently a clue continues )
Bobby: Indicating that Angie’s performance “changed the moral of the tribe” (Ulong, like the audience roots for Angie though underdog is never really a good thing on Survivor)
Stephenie: “I don’t know what happens in a tie” (THIS issue again Will it play out in a tie or will “they” keep avoiding one?
And of course, Jeff P. “Get a CLEAR goal first, THEN harness that energy” (Last week he spoke about them very negatively and they landed at TC again, his commentary MAY indicate they do manage to get a clearer goal and not see TC the next time)
To revisit my pre show thoughts on the people and how they are faringKoror: Caryn, Willard and Jen are the most vulnerable at Koror in my estimation. In terms of editing, I think we may see the irony in Caryn picking Willard only for Caryn to go before Willard. Jen may stay out of harm’s way if there is a battle. If not, her lack of characterization long term does not bode well for me. At this point, Ian, Tom, Gregg, Janu, Katie and Coby are faring the best but due to past editing patterns, I'm not sure about Katie, Tom, Gregg and Janu just yet at the end game
Ulong: Stephenie and James right now are better projections for long term (though I still have concern over James because he is such “character typing” I still believe Stephenie needs to reunite with her pre tribe potential alliance to continue that strategy story.
Due to Bobby’s rise in visibility and seemingly positive, I don’t think he will be gone just yet however, there is concern for me over any long term prospects but I revisit Coby’s remark: “Good choice” Will Coby see Bobby again? Angie’s continuing storyline is positive and I do wonder if she and Coby will also re-visit their pre tribe bonding. However, I do feel Angie will go out with the audience loving her but no end game.
Kim, Jeff and Ibe are the most vulnerable in terms of editing. We may have a Nick situation for Ibe but it is in my opinion he can’t win. We may just see him being blown out gently like a candle at some point while Kim and Jeff will have more “fireworks” concerning their demise.
I would love to hear from everyone else how they are visualizing the way this story is playing out.
Is Coby getting a Chris edit?Last season, Chris was very visible in Ep. 1 and then completely disappeared in Ep. 2. This year, Coby has done the same thing. It will be interesting to see whether we ever see Coby making suggestions to Tom and Tom acting upon them as if the ideas were his own.
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Winter warning in effect.
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-05 AT 12:20 PM (EST)Excellent analysis as usual VerucaSalt.
While I'm tempted to pat myself on the back for actually correctly guessing the Ashlee boot last night, credit has to go to you for picking up her vulnerability in your first post in this thread....
Just a couple notes of my own to add to your insight:
I thought the huge focus in editting on the Ulong tribe (we say nothing of Koror once they recovered their flint and started fire) may very well confirm the spoiler that is floating out there suggesting Koror is setting themselves up for an early immunity run.
Also - while James and Stefanie are clearly shown as the two biggest game-players over on Ulong, I get a bit of a Lex feel for the James edit - i.e. I think he is likely to overplay the game. Will be interesting to see how it turns out.
As for the Jeff/Kim vs. Romber comparisons - I agree with previous posts that this will not work out. We've already seen players pointing it out, and I have a feeling the players in the game will not risk having that go too far. Also, Kim's negative edit regarding her challenge performance is telling. I didn't see any comments about Willard doing nothing but swimming slowly....
I think Caryn is clearly getting the most negative edit on the Ulong side, and agree that Ian/Tom may be the duo to watch long-term, while Caryn may try to stir the pot. Willard may actually be the first to go, allowing the evil of Caryn to establish itself (I give Caryn the staying power everyone's favorite Jerri)
Keep up the good work, and if you ever figure out what the editor's are doing with Ibe, let us know!!!
MEmacmur
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-05 AT 12:52 PM (EST)aeth: Very interesting comment about Coby. I do agree that Coby is pure game playing as he did the "moment he got on the beach" I had mentioned earlier that I had a very Amazon Rob feeling from Coby which makes me wonder if he fares the same way as Rob. Chris was very very subtle in what he did, Coby more open about his intentions like Rob with a flair for the dramatic I do still believe Coby does well but I envision his "antics" like Rob may catch up with him coming down the pike.
memacur - Congratulations!! I normally don't do weekly thoughts but high praise definitely you deserve
Your comments on the people are very insightful. You may be quite right that Caryn is being "set up" so to speak. I love irony in this show; perhaps that is why I envision Willard nailing Caryn's coffin shut when he was probably chosen as her cushion
But there may be a longer term prospect as you suggest however it is forseaable that Caryn should not win.
I plan on re watching the show as I usually do and naturally there will be more "stuff" I missed. While you mention about a spoiler with Koror(?) it is still unclear to me who may go to TC this week though the editing may suggest that Koror finally sees TC (and again, I don't pay much attention to the information that is put out there in the spoiling sense) but with those in terms of editing, the past post of mine fleshes out who is definitely vulnerable
I noticed that in the opening credits, the players are listed by teams and Jonathan is placed in the middle of the Ulong tribe while Wanda is seen in the middle of the Korror tribe. I hope this doesn't mean they come back as outcasts later on. If not why not show them at the end of the list?
Well, if nothing else, considering the alternating male/female aspect of the pick 'em game, if they hadn't been eliminated, Jonathan would have been on Ulong and Wanda on Koror.
I think we the preview of the next episode the editors are trying to lull the viewers into believing there is trouble at Kor and that they may be going to TC. It is misdirection away from Ulong. Caryn seems to be the one getting the setup for Kor but I believe Ulong will go to TC once again.
Well, you're certainly right about spoilers needing to be taken with a large grain of salt... I read them for fun, but rely much more on the actual show editting to determine the real long-term status for players.You raise an interesting point about Willard possibly being the player who could eliminate Caryn. He (like Ibe) is perplexing me with his editting so far.
On one hand, since in pre-show hype JP mentioned that this Survivor may have the most water-related challenges of all, he seems like a likely boot candidate early since his swimming is clearly a liability.
On the other hand, during last nights reward challenge, it was Willard who was shown giving the advice that finally allowed the incompetent vine-swinger Katie to finally make it to the platform.
As such, I'm a little torn - I could see him getting voted out early as a possible 'weak player', but if he squeaks through to the merge, becomes a Scout/Tina/Pappy type that could stick around long-term, especially with the right alliance. I guess I'll have to watch for more of him...
I understand everything going on here and agree with most of it.Koror:
I agree that it looks like Tom, Ian and Gregg are buddies as they do things together. Also, I think Coby was playing the game from Day 1! However, I am slow to come to any real conclusions because we haven't seen them go to TC. When they start negotiating and positioning for TC we will get a much better idea of their relationships and who falls on which side!
>>Stephenie: “I don’t know what happens
>in a tie” (THIS issue
>again Will it play
>out in a tie or
>will “they” keep avoiding one?Excellent thread and observations as always!
This comment by Stephenie may be a foreshadowing of the eventual tie between Stephenie and Ibrehem that is part of the Mersaydeez spoiler... She may find out what happens in a tie when her and Ibrehem face of in a fire building tie-breaker to determine who goes on vacation and who makes the jury, as reported by Mersaydeez.
Krautboy
Just wanted to add that I also agree with who has been edited as vulnerable for each tribe.On an editing note, we may have been able to guess that Ibe would not want to vote of Ashlee based on her picking him in the pickem. But I was surprised by Ashee's vote of Jeff. Sure, she may have not wanted to end up in a tie, but why Jeff? Perhaps it's too early to tell who likes who on a personal level, but the only place we could have gotten a hint about Ashlee's feeings towards Jeff was in the Insider transcripts. It looks like she may have "passed up" a hookup with him, but yet also didn't like him hooking up with Kim...
So right now I'm looking towards the known votes to come up with some sort of "signaling" on how the players value eachother. Ibe's vote seems consistent in that he wants a strong tribe and believed Angie was and Kim is week. I think Ashlee's vote of Jeff was personal. So... Assuming Kim was the real target for last week, who will Kim and Jeff target this week? Will they target a perceived week link, or will personal feelings come into play in who they target? I know there are spoilers about Jeff, but Kim and Jeff still have to target someone. Kim could very well try to redeem herself and vote an injured person off, (Jeff) but I will be looking for Kim and Jeff to still strategize on how they could best place Jeff's vote as a signal to the remaining team.
LookeeLoo
Another Dicey Original 2004
We were given two completely different stories about the tribes. Koror was edited as being a team (with the exception of Caryn), working together to face both the game challenges (they worked in pairs during the IC) and the survival challenges (recovering the flint). On the other hand, Ulong was shown as individuals. James tells us they are a democracy where everyone is equal. They split up learning Morse Code instead of trying to learn it together. (Koror may have taken this same approach, but we weren't shown it. And it seemed when they were solving the puzzle that more than one person knew what letter was what, although it wouldn't have taken much of a brain to figure out that they would eventually have to spell immunity in Morse Code.)They tried to do the IC as individuals instead of groups. Even the challenge they did win was more of an individual challenge than a group one. (Team members crossed the gauntlet one at a time, without help from their team.)
ding ding ding we have a winner
Ep1 Jiffy says to Ulong that they need to find a leader. Ep2 Jiffy says to Ulong that they need get their act together. IMO they will continue to go to TC until they can come together as a tribe. Watch for Jiffy's comments on this.This is the tale of two tribes. Koror was beaten badly during the RC. The athletic difference between these two tribes could not have been more obvious. The apparantly least athletic person of Ulong, Angie, almost single handedly beat Koror. Through all of this, no negative comments by the tribe members. Ian remained upbeat in the face of Katie's complete failure. Ulong, even in the face of winning is shown in a negative light. Bobby John slapping on the ground in fustration. The brutal fall by James, and the focus of anguish on their faces during the RC.
Fast forward to the IC. Ulong, with the more athletic players quickly swim out to the platform and get a huge head start on Koror. Never was the difference more evident in these two teams then right here. Koror, using team work, quickly catches up and passes up Ulong and wins the IC by a large margin just as they did in Ep1.
Jiffy comments at TC lead me to believe that Ulong will be back to TC next week.
Koror:
Ian is still getting the best edit. He's responsible for finding the lost fire.
Tom, although he was given a slightly negative edit in Ep1, was redeemed this week when the fire was recoverd.
(Does anyone remember who or whom that was on the beach making comments about them not searching for the fire in the right place? I seem to recall that right after the last of the comments Ian found the fire.)
Katie's poor performance in the RC was not all that negatively portrayed by Jiffy or her tribe.
Caryn came off very negative.
The rest of that tribe were fairly unremarkable.Ulong:
I agree with VS thoughts on Bobby. His angry outburst was in the heat of competition.
Angie has taken on several roles for her tribe. The fierce competitor, tribe narrator, and the one who doesn't quite fit in with all of those beautiful people. Could the person who was picked last for her tribe be the last member of her tribe to survive this game?
Kim stuck out by what she didn't do as opposed to what she did do. Her strategy was to flirt her way through the game and it has worked thus far. Jeff is her boy toy. Her performance in the IC was not lost on the rest of her tribe.
Ibe, here you have this physical speciman and he is barely noticable in competitions. He blends into the back ground of his tribe. He seems to lack personality.
The focus on Jeff and Kim's relationship, and not in a positive way leads me to believe that one of those two will be out this week.
DRONES
>This is the tale of two
>tribes. Koror was beaten badly
>during the RC. The athletic
>difference between these two tribes
>could not have been more
>obvious.Very true Drones, but so far it seems that Koror is good in or on the water. If this pattern continues, and this season is loaded with water challenges per JP, this is a Koror advantage.
>(Does anyone remember who or whom
>that was on the beach
>making comments about them not
>searching for the fire in
>the right place? I seem
>to recall that right after
>the last of the comments
>Ian found the fire.)That was Caryn and Coby, I believe. These two are suspiciously shown together alot, and seem to have similar personalities (IMO.)
I again agree with you VS
KOROR--the tribe will have an edge at merge time...I agree Ian and Tom are in it for the long haul... Ian could be another Ethan-a winner that everyone likes but not a "player" like Hatch or Chris. Dolphin boy will be an asset in fishing and anything water related. He is definitely someone we are supposed to like and I do!! He will not be to full of himself as Rupert became and that will let him slide by to the finals, imo.
Tom is most likely going to go down ala Sarge/Rupert as being too strong, too well liked...he may win some II to stay in it longer than 8 or 8, but eventually someone (I think Katie) will be the architect of his boot.
Coby--I said it, he's Rob C with Hatch thrown in but I agree he is too "vocal" about his scheming....he will continue to narrate imo and go far but will not be the winner.
Katie..she will def. outlast her nemesis Caryn...again like you said last week, Katie is the mother of this tribe, not Caryn
Caryn...her or Willard will be the first to go, whether she can hold onto Coby will be key
Janu and Jenn--not enough for me to go on...unless Jenn is Darrah (oh, brother) I think she will go out sooner rather than later, Janu..she is surprising me with how well she is doing in challenges, etc. but was last night some foreshadowing and will a Rat be her downfall?
Gregg--same--I have to wait and see-- but if Koror continues to win ICs he may make it to merge and then others (Tom etc) will be higher on everyone's radar and he may slip through to f6-f4 and go on an immunity run then?. The survivor Insider has a lot of clips with Gregg in them/narrating...probably cut from show bc EPMB has some time with Gregg and others (men of Ulong)will not be around as long as he will be
Willard--again, if they go next week, it is likely Willard will go, he's sat out one challenge and is a weak swimmer. I will have to wait to see how Koror acts and what is important to them when they actually are faced with a TC...my feeling is though, they will want tribal unity/wisdom over athleticism
ULONG
Ib--I think they will be around a bit longer but I agree, if they were in it for the long haul they would have been featured more in ep. 2. I see Ib as Brady but he is UTR enough and there are enough others to take the first hits, he will probably last probably til around merge and then people will be scared of his "strength" but he wasn't too strong in the water yday.
BJ--he got a much more positive edit than I thought he would in ep. 2, he is shown as a player (along with James and Steph)
Jeff and Kim are being shown in the worst light so I see them going out very soon.Angie--I agree with VS she will stay for a bit and win some battles but ultimately lose the war. She is the Rory character of this year...although more positive than Rory...the underdog, who keeps dodging bullets...
Steph and James--as narrators, I see them as having the best chance of Ulongers to continue post merge
The people I see in most immediate danger: Jeff and Kim on Ulong and Caryn and Willard on Koror
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-05 AT 08:38 PM (EST)Excellent work as always, I only have a few things to add.
There has been much discussion of decisions and consequences, but there may be the third aspect, reconciliation. Caryn couldn’t let go of the decision on which beach to select, but both Katie and Coby both commented that the decision was made and now they must make the best of it. Stephanie also confessed that getting rid of Jo was the right decision. It may not be the consequences of decisions that are important but the acceptance of decisions already made.
After the first episode I thought Angie’s story would revolve around her being an outcast. She would manage to hang on for a while, almost being booted of each week, and then, in a heartbreaking episode, would finally become accepted, only to be booted off. But it is only episode two and she may have already finished her story. While she probably won’t go next week, I am unsure she makes it as far as many think. As odd as this may seem, we need to see her more on the chopping block if she is going to stick around.
Almost as telling is the story that isn’t being told. Prior to the season I thought if Janu wasn’t an early boot she could have an interesting story line. We have been given some teasers, her rock climb up the coconut tree, and her aversion to rats. But if her story doesn’t begin to flesh out soon, I have little hope for her.
Stephanie has a very interesting edit. She is coming across as a strong leader, balanced, a decision maker, and strategic player. But her story arc may be moving too fast. This, combined with her early alliance with Ulong members, leads me to believe she makes the merge, but becomes an obvious target.
Ian has been given a rock star edit and it may be too good to be true, he is around for a very long time. Tom has also received a good edit, but he appears to more of a target.
I agree with you VS, Bobby Jon is getting a much better edit than I anticipated.
ETA: It is Coby not Cory
Two strong, likable, everday winners. They appear to have some sort of alliance going on, and so far, seem to be doing things together. There's only room for one eventually, on this island, however, and who is it going to be?"I can do anything you can do better. Anything you can do I can do too..."
Tom, it could be said, won the IC for Koror this week. I can't be the only person, however, who sat there and looked at the challenge, and went "That's nothing compared to what Koror just accomplished in getting their flint back." Really, though, it was Ian who was highlighted as being the hero in returning the flint. Tom - with Ian's help - won immunity for the tribe. It was Ian who got fire, however.
While it was edited to show that the tribe didn't necessarily agree with the opinion, MB showed Caryn pointing at Tom for the blame of moving to the different camp, and the problems that came with it - including the loss of fire. Tom lost the fire. Ian got it back.
I think these two are going to continue to work together. I think they generally even like each other. However, I think MB might eventually give us an edit to show that only one of them can prevail. Mersaydeez's spoiler has put Katie in the Final 2. If this is true, I don't think I'm jumping out on a limb to suggest that she could have either Tom or Ian sitting next to each other, and that these three could make up the Final Three, especially if that spoiler holds true. The question is, which one will prevail?
Whatever happens with the shark next week will be important. Who will be edited as the hero this time? Ian has already provided fire for his tribe(something Tom dismissed as a 'loser' job), will he also be shown to provide food? The speculation is saying that Tom does it, and no doubt he will be a key part in it, but who will be edited to win out in this situation?
I'm torn, myself, between the two. Truly, the classic hero must overcome great odds and personal mistakes/limitations. I said pre-season that I thought we'd see more 'classic' characters being developped this season. So far, Tom has perhaps made one mistake, while Ian is being carried on everyone's shoulders. The game is only beginning, however, and EPMB is still just forming our initial impressions of people.
He wants us to like Ian. He's planted a seed of doubt around Tom, and then perhaps redeemed him slightly, but still didn't place him above Ian. Classic storytelling tells us that our hero should come up against opposition next. Not right away, perhaps, we're still in the first pages of this story, but within the next few episodes we should start to see the hints of what's to come.
Tom, on the other hand, was a hero from the first moment he walked onto the beach. A NY firefighter. The Knights of our current culture. As I said in my other thread, however, this season is all about people not playing the role they're expected to. Tom is already a hero, but can he hold onto his title? If Tom is a knight, than Ian is the peasant boy with a heart of gold and good intentions who will one day surprise himself by surpassing his mentor.
If Ian continues to coast, then I think he's simply being given the Rupert 'nice guy finishes last' edit, and EPMB will find a way to slip him a million after the game is over. On the other hand, if Tom continues to be edited as being no better than Ian, I think he will eventually pass the 'torch'.(If both of these happen, well, then, Katie wins. I'm by no means ruling out that possibility.)
On the other hand, if after the initial superstar edit, Ian is shown to hit a roadblock but continue to keep pushing forward, I see him eventually overcoming whatever 'odds' are thrown in his way, and becoming the real hero of the season. This will be a slow moving story arc, that will probably involve first establishing his greatness, then perhaps hiding him for a bit(although not letting the audience forget about him) as the seeds of trouble are planted. After his obstacles are established(be they be personal, whether physically or mentally, or coming from outside. Likely there will be both), we will see him battle them. The classic ending to this story would be to see him pervail(although he could perhaps sacrifice himself, in which case, again, I see Katie as coming out the winner).
Another thing to watch for will be how nature is edited to responding to his difficulties. Nature will often reflect the mood of the hero. Since this is reality, and even EPMB can't order thunderstorms on request, this won't be cut and dry, but it's usually pretty easy to tell when he's focusing on something.
I'm going to end this here for now because it's late, and I have a feeling I'm going to start contradicting myself or talking in circles if I keep on like this. I'll post this now, but I may come back tomorrow and change my mind on a few things. I also should mention that I have a crush on Ian biasing my opinions right now.
I keep remembering that during the first challenge they did on the island, Jeff made a point of telling us that Tom was the first one over the first obstacle. Tom was leading in the first challenge they did and it was pointed out to us. Maybe it means nothing. But it sticks in my head.
You have made some great observations, emy! Caryn, imo, received extremely negative editing. First with backing Tom into a corner on the first night spent at the new beach. She seemed to attack him, to me. She drilled on and on about how making the decision to come to the new, unknown beach was a serious mistake, and that their should have been a vote....hmmmm, looks like she is questioning having a leader of the tribe to direct the group, and instead wanting the tribe to become a democracy, as James has stated that their tribe is.(Yet we see the no leader, no direction, democracy at Ulong is failing miserably). I found myself thinking how nasty she was, and how unproductive to the group she was in attacking Tom and the decision, I was in complete agreement with Katie, mistake or no, the decision had been made, and now the best thing to do would be to adapt to it and move on....Caryn is resisting adapting to the new camp, she's fixated on the old one, which is an extremely unproductive course.Then, in the previews, we are shown a glimpse of the hyped cat-fight. Once again it seems as if Caryn is doing the attacking. No doubt about it, she is trying to control this group in some regard and failing. The editing is definately making her out to be a villain, and a bossy, vindictive, and controlling one at that. She could have a Jerri edit, but to me, the fact that we are shown her accusatory and bossy nature spells first boot to me. As emydi pointed out, in referring to how Koror will vote at TC, they will want tribal unity/wisdom over athletism. Just as they preferred wisdom and unity in choosing their tribe over youth and athletism.
Over at Ulong, imo, the MOST negative editing went to Kimber. Did you see her body language when Steph told her they were considering her on the chopping block....what a BIOTCH! If looks could kill, Steph would have dropped right then and there. Even if she attempted to go and pull the box in the IC, we were not shown it at all, we were shown that she did nothing to help in that challenge. She is a threat to the Ulong tribe, and one that I think will be targeted far sooner than later. Steph definately has her dander up regarding Kim. Should be an interesting boot!
All in all, excellent points made by all! Great thread, VS!
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-05 AT 04:31 AM (EST)Good analysis by all!
Just wanted to mention a comment edited into one of his 5 confessionals last week.
"If we have someone slowing us down, I hope that doesn't bring down our team."
While he was referring to Ashlee at the time, his comment was probaly also included for the ironic situation he will find himself in next week. When he becomes injured and brings down the team during the IC because he "quits", he will be the one slowing them down and Ulong goes on to lose...
Krautboy
but to me, the fact that we are shown her accusatory and bossy nature spells first boot to me. As emydi pointed out, in referring to how Koror will vote at TC, they will want tribal unity/wisdom over athletism.I think we are being shown this because there is nothing else of particular interest to show on Koror right now (except maybe the Jenn/Gregg romance, which I think has already started, but they are hiding it until after Kim and Jeff are both gone). MB loves to show fights at camp. But it smells of misdirection to me.
Koror is focused on WINNING. We've been told there are a lot of water challenges, and Willard was already shown to be a poor swimmer at the last IC. For someone who Jeff Probst thinks is an interesting character, we're not getting much out of Willard so far. I think he is a no-brainer as Koror's first boot.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
KB, very nice foreshadowing with that quote!BR, I agree that in absence of boot issues looming, Koror would not be seen normally so we need to be shown something. However, I have usually found with the editing that if a tribe is starting to be shown from a positive towards a negative then something negative may occur shortly.
I think there may have been more negativity that could have been highlighted from Koror; they can't be that happy but there really is no point if they don't have to eliminate someone since I would suspect we are to see how cohesive and wise they are. Since we are now planning to see a crack in their tribe this episode, the "arc" if you will, of the happy times of Koror may now have a dark cloud BUT it could very well be for the following episode.
emydi, I have been a firm believer in the eyemails along with the other editing clues I love to interpret.
We saw more of a couple of people last episode moreso at Ulong. Bobby, Jeff and Kim. The other people really are just progressing along with their same pattern so far.
Bobby's editing went up positively as opposed to a negative. Both Kim and Jeff took editing turns as far as visibility and negative. So it would seem fair things don't bode well for them. Interesting that "Kim" was mentioned as a threat by James to Jeff, however, what we didn't see is anyone deeming JEFF as a threat (deliberate misdirection?)
Technically Jeff is a bigger threat yet Kim is "dead weight" The Ulongs again are stuck with Choices and their Consequences
If they choose to get rid of Jeff, they will be getting rid of strength they need now perhaps but won't want later. If they get rid of Kim now they get rid of dead weight they don't need now but wouldn't mind later for individual game.
What choice do they make and how does it affect them?
Since we are now planning to see a crack in their tribe this episode, the "arc" if you will, of the happy times of Koror may now have a dark cloudI would agree it could signal danger not too far ahead, but not necessarily for one of these two.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
LAST EDITED ON 03-01-05 AT 01:19 PM (EST)Ok, this week I think my theory works!!!
Last week, not so much because no one was featured, but it could be akin to Snewser's post on Sucks quoted in KB'spost in the shark thread about sometimes EPMB edits, etc. for a surprise boot(ashlee last week) and sometimes he smacks us in the face with it (jeff this week!!)
I am brilliant--KT said so last week...
"Ok, this week I think my theory works!!!
Last week, not so much because no one was featured"But didn't one pic show Ashlee falling over the wall...
I thought it worked last week too...
Close but no car...
It did in the sense that Ashlee was there, but no one was "featured" as emydi says -- Ashlee's face wasn't even visible. There were three other Ulongs in the same shot, including Jeff and Kim.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
I thought the TC interviews stood out as MBs frying pan upside the head edit indication that J&K were blissfully, naively out of sync with the tribe. When a tribe member(s) is/are shown to be out of sync with his tribe, and is unaware of this fact, they are soon to be (the next?) a puntee. I think this is a generally useful indicator.
I'm very curioius to see the extent of this injury. Maybe it's not as bad as we think and Jeff could have just sucked it up for the tribe, but chooses to sacrifice himself to save Kim, the obvious boot? Or, maybe this "injury" is played up in the minds of Jeff's tribe mates and used as fuel to get rid of him? Ulong sees this moment of weakness and chooses to get rid of him?IMO we are not seeing something here in regards to this injury. If this was as serious of an injury, like Mike's of Outback fame was, then EPMB would have kept it hidden for maximum shock value effect.
This would fit in with the choices and consequences theme that has been observed by VS. Ulong chooses to get rid of Jeff for his supposed injury, but in reality they are doing it because he is a threat as was stated by James.
BTW, I'm still waiting for war theme promised by EPMB in the previews for this edition of survivor.
DRONES
I believe Jeff said: "I can barely weight bear on it..." so it sounds like a pretty serious leg/ankle injury.
Braveheart
On an editing standpoint, and as mentioned in other thresds we have noted that we have not received a whole lot of RC versus IC pics to decipher what exactly what are the RC versus IC pics.Vols in another thread (or perhaps it was this one) mentioned the lack of RC/IC pics was quite frustrating in trying to determine a boot, alliances, etc..
So I'm thinking, since we have been privy to the challenge storyboard, we may just be seeing a different edit. Ex.: we get to guess the challenges based on the storyboard or the "whatever".
Are we being shown limited RC/IC pics because we have been exposed to the storyboard?
Does that mean the storyboard pics are in contract to the pics? Perhaps. Ex. the supposed Episode 3 "switch"
Is this a different editing slant? Ex.: we get the story board, which can be shuffled amongst episodes and we don't get as much pic info on RC/IC?
LookeeLoo
Another Dicey Original 2004
LAST EDITED ON 03-08-05 AT 02:02 PM (EST)My post may end up quite like Ulong; all over the place with no clear direction Again, most of you know and others don't that I don't analyze the show in conjunction with spoiler material. My "analysis" (of the dime store variety) is based on exactly what the thread is titled, i.e. the players/characters and the editing of same. My opinions therefore may not make much sense to those who follow spoilers (or it just might not make any sense)
I have been wallowing in the confusion regarding the editing of this show. Those who remain invisible, those who are portrayed over the top negative or positive and so forth has made this season thus far very interesting and very frustrating. There are some constants in Survivor editing and this season is attempting to break those rules.
Well, again, we are privy mainly to Ulong and their dynamics which naturally makes sense in light of the fact they keep going to Tribal Council.
Again, however, it is important to note that even in light of losing a challenge, we see nothing from Koror discussing what went wrong. Instead, we quickly move onto their new adventures (last week retrieving the flint and this week snakes and sharks - the symbolism had me in hog heaven )
War?
Is this a theme for the show or just a general sense of what is happening with Ulong? They are at war with Koror and being demolished. They are at war with themselves and demolishing themselves
Kim: “It’s like everybody died”
Choices/Consequences
The prevalent theme which Jeff Probst keeps showing us by stating such. The reward challenge, how they chose to get the life ring; the emphasis that this is a social game and how you take the ring away could affect your long term standings.
Ulong the epitome of wrong choices are not even able to make a choice. They can’t decide who to vote off, and obviously can’t decide next week who will represent them. James had indicated they are a democracy, however, even in a democracy SOMEONE needs to be a leader
James: “We don’t know what we are gonna do until we do it”
Last season we had continuous shots of the volcanos. I had noted based on what the volcano did set up the standard for the show. This season seems to showcase WRECKAGE and following same we saw, yes, Ulong.
The interesting parallel between these tribes is the way they compete. Ulong gets the rewards and Koror gets the immunities. The irony is that the reward challenges are more individual and the immunity challenges are more team oriented. Individually, Ulong is tough, together, Koror seems unstoppable. But how will this play out for Koror once the game IS individual?
The Players, Symbolism and Editing Observations
ULONG
James, Steph remain consistent. Both have stayed the course in terms of visibility and game talk. Neither of them have been slanted as of yet in a negative light.
Interesting quote by Jeff at the IC regarding Steph “Stephenie, the only woman left”
Considering that I have committed myself to Stephenie’s pre tribe alliance discussion with Tom, it would seem fitting still that she will be reunited with them
James about himself “I’m listening to everything; I’ve got ears like a bat” (There have been quite a lot of animal references and imagery this season)
Bobby Jon - His editing is progressing even more still. His positive turn started last week and increased immensely this week. He has completely defied the pre show expectation that a lot of people had. My one concern with him is the tribe he is on. I recall Elisabeth, who despite her faring after merger, the bottom line was she was still on the other tribe to start. I fear with his editing that we are to be very sympathetic towards his plight; we see what he is dealing with and feel bad for him. That characterization typically does not end up well
Kim’s quote regarding Bobby: “It’s no use if he keeps doing this for 2 weeks then crashes and burns” (Foreshadowing? I always raise my eyebrows whenever there is talk with “numbers”)
However, I again go back to Coby’s mention: “Good choice” about Bobby and now Bobby mentioning Tom. Will Bobby have the opportunity to “see” Koror?
Angie: Consider the fact, she is probably one of the few contestants whose “underdog” status has changed. Her rise from that situation appears to be done. THAT story is over. Interestingly enough, she can now be construed as potentially threatening and not necessarily well regarded by everyone any longer. Her edit has certainly peaked as an underdog. I still question whether she and Coby “meet up again” After yesterday’s RC, she has not made “friends” with Koror though. Jeff’s emphatic speech about this reward showcasing what may happen to you is very telling in light of Angie’s performance at the challenge. What Angie has done to redeem herself in the eyes of her tribe may have garnered her some enemies in the long run.
Bobby Jon and Angie - Again we are shown the two of them appreciating one another, working together and I found their “vote” talk interesting. Although Angie was not going to vote out Kim, the two of them were not at odds with each other and I enjoyed the brief moment of their observing Kim and Jeff together. Both are very likable though I do not get a sense of as MUCH longevity with them as I do with Steph and James. I feel as if with how horrific Ulong is being portrayed, Bobby is earning our sympathy but that doesn’t then mean he could last. With Angie, it is almost as if they are setting her up to be the enemy of Koror. In my mind, neither of these portrayals signal a happy ending.
Kim: Kim’s edit has spiraled out of control. The over the top showing of her being lazy and not very smart is either deliberate misdirection or it is what it is. She was even unable to discuss being on the “cutting block” correctly.
Her concern over what people thought about herself and Jeff led right to her cuddling with him again. My only concern with her edit is the tribe that is surrounding her. Bad choices again and again. Does Kim keep managing to dodge the bullet that is intended for her?
There was a lot of irony in her statement at TC that Ulong’s strategy is voting out the weakest yet the audience is seeing the exact opposite happening in terms of Kim herself.
Ibe - It appears to me that Ibe was required to step up in the visibility portion and that is the only reason we saw more of him. His rise in visibility did not indicate to me that his story is progressing but rather, with each Ulong leaving, he is almost “forced” into being a participant in visibility. Again, his remarks and actions are not cohesive with the rest of his tribe. He voted this time for someone who was going but this vote essentially was not one of decision really.
His commentary about the challenge was interesting when Bobby claimed Tom to be the reason Koror won. Ibe, however, credits Tom AND HIS TEAM doing it together and if they had Jeff (AN INDIVIDUAL) they would have won. Again, an emphasis on Koror and team work and Ulong on individuality.
Bobby Jon about Tom: “He is a man among men; he singlehandedly won the challenge for them”
(Tom is getting the hero edit even from the other tribe. Reminds me somewhat of Rupert in terms of the high regard but not in terms of the character portrayal itself)
With the exception of the whole tribe disintegrating at this point through their choices and their consequences, it would appear that Steph and James, being consistent and being active participants in the game itself are here for as long as they can be.
Bobby Jon’s upward swing again is a mixed message as we have seen both rise in “good arcs” lead to an impending boot (two weeks?) or sustaining. He is giving me a hard way to go. Angie’s underdog status has leveled out and now she is being showcased as a competitor. How this will resolve with Koror will be interesting if there is any turn of events where she is at their mercy.
KOROR
Again, when a tribe does not visit TC, it is hard to determine exactly how much issue there is in a tribe. We were given a teaser of same which obviously setting up Caryn and Katie. Before that, again I reiterate that after the RC, we saw little to no discussion of how they fared, who may have hurt them and so forth. It was just another adventure in the day in the life of Koror.
There has been no “real talk” about alliances, strategy and so forth with the exception of a blurb of being a target if too confrontational
Tom and Ian - Again both showcased extremely positive. They are our Elisabeth and Rodger but on the prevailing tribe this time. Tom shown to be teacher and motivator during the quest for snakes and sharks and the immunity challenge. Ian positive and upbeat even while having to do something he didn’t want to do.
At the IC, Tom kept them going but at the very end Ian threw himself to tag out Ulong. At this point in time, either of these two appear to be destined for the final two or else the winner and this season is so unappetizing that they are capitalizing on Tom and Ian to save it.
Ian strongly resembles Ethan’s characterization quite a lot.
Tom: “I hooked up with two other knuckle heads who like the excitement of things like this” (Ian, Tom and Gregg a mighty threesome )
Caryn - Caryn shows her annoyance. In the light of day, probably a reasonable situation. Ironic that other than a glimpse of Jen and Willard, no fall out from this fight. Katie dismisses her antics and Caryn worries over her status. There will obviously be something coming down the pike for these two
With regard to Caryn’s status - again sometimes something shown means something. Caryn was featured in the IC visually when she quit whereas Willard and Katie left with no real visual that I can recall. Yes, Caryn was the first one out but as a whole, Caryn’s “negative” characterizations are shown more prominently than others. Perhaps she is one of Koror’s rats?
Willard - I have expected more out of Willard. The commentary about it pre show was one of a very social and dynamic older man yet we have not been shown this whatsoever even in terms of confessionals. He will either have a key moment that will then be expanded on or he will be a typical first boot. At this juncture with the lack of dynamics it is a hard call. I go back to Koror’s creed of wisdom and team work and I do wonder if Willard is passed over for a first boot because of this though. Came to Coby’s aid at the IC is really anything of note
Janu - Dipped somewhat in visibility and only remembered for being overcome by Angie but instantly shown protected by her tribe I’m perpelexed somewhat by her editing portrayal as I highly doubt she has nothing to say. There was no commentary whatsoever by her or the tribe over her brawl with Angie that we were shown. Always seems to be fairly physically close to Coby who is situated around Caryn and Willard or so it appears
Katie - It was no secret that Katie would be somewhat annoying to someone at least. Our pre show analysis stated such. In terms again, however, of what we are being shown, Katie comes out on top. The battle of Caryn and Katie only reflected Caryn’s vulnerability, Katie was nonplussed other than her annoyance at Caryn’s annoyance. We also were not shown anything from the other members about this issue outside of Coby’s off hand remarks about people grating on each other’s nerves. No specifics mentioned. Couple that with Katie getting no negative treatment from her poor showing at last week’s RC makes me tend to believe that Katie would outlast Caryn
Coby - All sneaky talk from Day one gone.........for now. I still expect him to be key in a Tribal Council. Coby is not necessarily showcased but he is highly visible. Talks about the shelter, seen doing his portion. Sympathetic to Janu; discusses the tribe’s dynamics. Shown trying very hard to keep up with the powerhouses on his tribe at IC but failing. Will he get close to the brass ring but fall short?
Jenn: In terms of vocal visibility there is still nothing but her presence escalated. She and Stephenie’s cat fight again makes me question what may come down the road for the two of them together in a battle of which woman goes. Seen lurking near the dynamics but not involved in them. (Watching Caryn and Katie, chopping the snake while the other’s actively get the shark)
Jenn at this point seems to have some longevity but if there is no increase after Koror goes to their first TC, I can’t foresee her getting at the end. I did note when she was in the water, they flashed to Gregg looking concerned. If we have another Darrah, Jenn would be such, however I don’t consider Jenn as athletic as Darrah was. She is insulated in a good tribe right now though
Gregg - Fairly consistent, a nice addition with Tom and Ian though he “joins” in after Tom/Ian already established (getting the snakes he told us he joined in and so forth) There is no question he is desired for his strength and decent attitude. He is a serious threat to Koror as individuals but they are so team oriented this is not an issue, yet. It will and should be however. We saw more of him since he was actively involved in every part of Koror but we haven’t gotten to “know him” very well. His “narration” is more general whereas Tom and Ian talk more personally. However, one cannot overlook his strength which is always an assistance. If all the strong of Ulong go, his competition for II dwindles despite the fact that Tom and Ian have shown their strengthWith the editing thus far, Willard has no story or strategy. Caryn’s being showcased in a more negative light and will come head to head with Katie at some point. Coby’s visibility is there but vocally went down some from the first episode which is not unusual right now. Janu and Jenn are there but we haven’t gotten to know them very well but they are seen.
Willard is more likely than not their first boot based on there being nothing from him. Katie may, in fact, attempt to get rid of Caryn but I sense that this will happen to further along the dynamics there for a “who will it be” type Tribal Council at some point.
Gregg, Tom, Ian and Coby should endure for quite some time. Tom and Ian are getting huge portrayals for them to not to be there for some time. Katie does narrating for Koror and not just about herself. She discusses others as well. I still sense issue coming from her at some point. Jenn and Janu need to find some sense of fleshing out soon or I suspect they will not be there very long.
Animal Imagery
Ian feeling bad about having to kill the snake. Symbolism at its best? Does he have the killer instinct to get rid of a snake further down the road or will it cost him?
(Interestingly enough there was a snake shown moments before Ulong’s visit to Tribal Council)
Tom again: “We are going to back off the snakes and redouble our efforts on the sharks." We are going to get a shark” (Who on this island is the shark?) Recall the sharks ate the snakes. I also could have sworn we heard the theme from Jaws during Tom’s attempts
The interesting contrast also of what Ulong and what Koror went after:
Bobby Jon catches a tiny fish “It’s not much but I like it”
All the while, Koror is attempting to catch a shark (but they don’t get it)Koror has inundated us with animal imagery. This is not necessarily an indicator of anything concrete but enough to question
Rats - Last time there were rats, this week snakes and sharks. Is the makeup of the tribes consistent with this? Who are rats, snakes or sharks. Tom and Ian could not get the shark, the managed to kill the snakes and the rats remained.
The Challenges in terms of symbolism
Jeff: “Good ole fashioned cat fight” (about Jen and Stephenie-will these two jockey for the position with the majority alliance?)
Jeff: “Janu didn’t like that” (regarding Angie bearing down on her) Janu was then protectively hugged by Coby
Katie: “Get her!” (About Angie)Bobby at the IC practically carrying the weight of Ulong on his shoulders
Ibe: Strong man yet not really carrying the brunt of the weight
Steph: The only woman prevailing
James: leaving the challenge was told by BJ to give him his weight. Is Bobby carrying everyone’s burdens and will he crash/burn because of it?Next Week
Coby: “What if the person who goes, doesn’t come back? (At that moment, the camera panned on Gregg, Tom and Ian)
LAST EDITED ON 03-04-05 AT 12:45 PM (EST)GAH.. I hit return too soon but luckily I got this back hitting the BACK button!!
Here's my post:
I always look forward to reading your weekly post VS!!! This was the best one yet (how do you keep topping yourself!!!)You should be hired by EPMB as his chief editor!! But then you'd be too good at that and we'd never figure it out!!!
I agree with everything you said but of course I want to add my own twist on it and maybe add a bit of spoiler here or there!!
You are right on about Angie She is no longer the underdog and she is becoming the enemy of Koror. You wonder if she will be at the mercy of Koror, well the double RC Ep. 5, she looks like she will be as it is surmised that Koror wins the RC and then is the voting tribe at Ulong's TC....Angie must continue to grate on Koror's last nerve because that is the only reason I see her going in Ep. 5 by Koror's hand, as opposed to BJ (and Ibe to a lesser extent) who is very strong..
I see Tom getting a Lea/Rupert edit. For me, he has become the Koror's narrator replacing Coby since Ep. 1. Since Koror has not had the onus of ousting anyone since Ep. 1 when Coby orchestrated Jonathan's non-pick, EPMB is free to focus on his heroes and Tom is the most eloquent and is the LEADER. Whenever Koror has to go to TC though, or post merge, I see Coby steppping in and becoming the narrator then, possibly because Tom is no longer around because he is seen as too strong (like Lea/Rupert)
Tom's discussion about adventure and knuckleheads was the best confessional to date imo... so Tom Ian and Gregg are Moe Larry and Curly....yuk yuk yuk
As for Ian, I too commented to my friends last nite that Ian is getting an Ethan edit. But I think Ian is a stronger player than Ethan and may have the ability to get the shark, snake, rat, whatever.. FWIW, I think Katie is going to be the snake, rat, whatever etc. I know she got the more positive edit than Caryn in. Ep. 3 and I see her lasting longer than Caryn too, but she also is getting the Jenna L./Clay annoying edit (I can't remember back that far, but did Kelli get such an edit in S1??) and I see her as a potential F2 partner for a more positive player (Ian/Tom??)
I agree Willard is just a non entity and will likely be the first boot. Janu has disappeared...
Jenn and Gregg are now coming to light a bit and they are seen yesterday with the POWER 3 of Koror IANTOMKATIE...so there you go that's the 5 votes for the first boot...I see Willard Caryn (and to a lesser extent) Janu as the only first boot candidates for Koror. Coby is not in trouble but I still see him as getting the Rob C. edit.
As for Ulong, you are right, they are one messed up tribe...last nite, the "theme" of Jiffy's questions was frustration (not romance of Kim/Jeff this week) culminating in Kim's most prophetic quote (it was about TC but...)
"I'm so sick of being hereI think a rose is a rose is a rose and Kim is a toast come Ep. 4.
Ibe also is coming to light, is this the beginning of his story line that will end shortly??? It's sort of like Angie's story is ending and Ibe's is now starting to replace it...I don't see either staying too long with Angie going before Ibe.
Steph and James are the constants, although they did not vote the same last nite. BJ has become a sort of de facto leader by default of Ulong. For me, he is the most surprising Survivor ever.. I never thought he would act like this.. I saw him more of a Jeff/Kim player... I was wrong... But, like you said, usually that type of story line doesn't end up too well.. but I think for now he is safe on Ulong bc he is the provider and strongest player.
Some final notes, quotes and misc.I too noted that they showed Tom Ian and Gregg when Coby said "what if the person doesn't come back" I do not think they will risk losing one of them, so I see Mama Katie being Koror's choice.
As for Ulong, they can't even pick a leader (as you said even a democracy has a leader) for next week.. maybe they too are afraid to pick Bj Ibe or Steph for fear of losing them. Therefore, James or Angie is my pick for Ulong. Possibly Angie goes and alienates Koror further....
Oh and I didn't know sexuality had a long e song in it...I love James' confessionals!!!
I look forward to Friday mornings just so I can read this thread.
Veruca: By reading these posts I get more insight into how the game is being played than from any other source. Your understanding of the players and the unique way you express this understanding makes me look forward to this ongoing post each and every week. You really make Friday special for me. Thanks for your time and your effort. I am sure many others share my thoughts.
VC, and Emydi, very interesting. Long as hell, and verbose. But very well done, stylish, enlightening and entertaining. Had me on the edge of my seat. I got to the end wanting more, can't wait till the next installment (do not read sarcasm into this).What seems to be a sub-theme (to me) is the contrast between appearance and substance. Not necessarily any foreshadowing or longevity clues, but the contrasts are interesting, Jeff (strong but a quitter) and Angie (pudgy/weird but a fighter winner), or Ian (stick boy/killer, competitor), or Tom (older guy, out lasts younger), Ibe (big strong guy, but ultimately beaten by stick boy), Stephanie (woman who outlasts men).
Is MB out to teach the world a lesson in life? Hope not.
emydi, as always, I do always look forward to your take on things! Who is your Chad this season One can't help falling in editing love with Tom, yes?mac and redbeard, thank you so much for your nice words I would love to see more of your thoughts in here as we sure can use it in this "muck of editing"
kingfish, your edgy commentary is always welcomed even with the hint of sarcasm lolol You know this thread would not be 'THIS THREAD' without it being longwinded
As I mentioned before, Ulong's individuality and Koror's togetherness is very key in how they are handling this show. We noticed that there is a pattern to how they do competitions and there thought process on same.
In the promos of the challenge, it seems that Ulong MAY finally see the II at their camp. Couple that with the slow buildup that has been shown at Koror with the tension, they may go to TC this week. Really, why even bother showing tension on Koror? We heard Coby mention it and we saw Caryn and Katie expressing it. Since there has been an editing "turn" at their camp for really no reason to show it, it may be suggestive that they go to Tribal Council. We saw a minor hint of it with Caryn and her complaints of the camp and Tom selecting it; last week it was Caryn and Katie. In light of all their recent victories, their shared adventures and so forth, I do feel this "grating on nerves" is being delivered to set something up.
Again, I do not follow spoilers; this is merely based on what I see and how it compares to past shows, etc.
At this time, it would appear Koror may finally see Jeff Probst other than a challenge. If this happens, we have a situation of Caryn and Katie at odds. It does appear from watching and listening, Caryn is situated with Coby and Janu and Willard perhaps whereas Katie, Ian, Tom, Gregg with probably Jenn are more aligned. Usually we receive various features of more than one person being the target and then somewhat surprised at the outcome especially if MB is hiding that victim and making it more about others. Or it is clearly about two people and they make it as suspenseful as possible.
In light of these editing tricks it suggests that for a duration of the show Caryn and Katie may be featured as the potential victims, however, Willard may in fact be the one booted for the obvious reasons and then, the Caryn and Katie situation will become larger still since there won't be a "better" boot.
Over at Ulong, Kim's edit has bothered me and I won't repeat why in fairness to Kingfish I do have concern (again) about Bobby's editing turn and Angie's though as I already stated Angie leaving would seem more fitting at the hands of Koror.
At this moment, Willard seems highly likely to leave along with the above reasons and the fact that despite what we gleaned from his pre show bio/interviews etc. the editing is not showing this seemingly intelligent, humorous man who is the oldest person there. Why nothing about his struggle being there being the eldest or his observation about his tribe? Sometimes this occurs when there is so much going on more dynamic (flint lost, shark/snakes, Ulong) and the editors know his stay will be short.
If this is the case, it is a shame but predictable.
VS I couldn't help but be impressed by BJ's attempt to carry Ulong on his back. He has been edited as the crazy man kinda like Matt, but he seems to have taken Jeffs role as the main male strength in Ulong. Increased face time sometimes is not a good thing but in this case I feel he is jumping front and center into the spot of the male leader in Ulong.In order for them to survive Ulong has to start acting as a team rather than a group of individuals. In their present state I see many other individuals ahead of BJ on the Ulong boot list. Because of his strength and the fact that he is on the numerically weaker team I do not forsee him making it to the final 4 but I think it is possible for him to be the last male standing on Ulong.RedBeard
I re-read my post, and I regret not being clearer. Sarcasm was meant for the critical part of my reply but the praise although scarcastically written, was not ment to be sarcastic, it was real, I actually did get to the end wanting more. Same with EMYDI's reply. Besides being a skilful writer you have a sense of humor and are introspective, and my reliance on that tempts me to joke around a little. I'm not a very good editor of my own stuff.PLease do not shorten your observations in any way that is not of your own choice. And Don't listen to any dolt who hints that you should.
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-05 AT 10:50 AM (EST)Why nothing about (Willard's) struggle being there being the eldest or his observation about his tribe? Sometimes this occurs when there is so much going on more dynamic (flint lost, shark/snakes, Ulong) and the editors know his stay will be short.
I don't believe Willard is leaving this week. His comment about hitting Wanda over the head with the oar set up a sarcastic, biting character (Wanda even said in one interview that Willard's "role" was to be the curmudgeon). Yet we've heard not a peep from him since then. There isn't that much going on at Koror that they couldn't have developed Willard more since Episode 1.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
VS, I am always so keen to post in this thread but I rarely have anything insightful to post (or if I do, you have already put it more succinctly than I ever could). The person I am most interested in at the moment is Jenn, largely because we have seen so little of her.I was expecting that Jenn would follow a very similar path to all other UTR players - i.e. Nick, Zoe, Leann , Amber (in S2), Erin, Vecepia (if she's lucky) - I thought she would be a non-entity who would last a moderate distance.
But so far she is a complete stranger. In all other seasons we have been introduced to all the characters by the third ep. But this time we are still waiting to be introduced to Jenn. Even Nick had been introduced by now.
VS, you say that she is hovering at the side of the action and I agree with you. But still, we don't even know what her voice sounds like. Evidently MB wants us to know she is involved with her tribe, but hasn't been able to do much yet (this is porbably because voting strategy is not yet part of Koror's story).
I think that we will begin to hear more from Jenn once the strategy starts on Koror. Up to that point we will not hear much from her at all, but I am sure she will become much more prolific after that point.
Jenn, IMHO, is NOT a non-entity and typical UTR playr. If she was we would have been introduced to her by now. I think she is not being shown because she is not important as of yet - but once she does become important, we will suddenly discover who she is.
Therefore I don't think that she is in danger if we don't hear from her for another few episodes, as she may just not need to be introduced yet. But once she is, I have a feeling she will be a part of something big in this game.
meh - i could just be wrong.
LAST EDITED ON 03-06-05 AT 05:59 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 03-06-05 AT 05:47 PM (EST)
Excellent analysis as always, I really enjoy everone's opinions.
Last season one of the posters performed an excellent analysis of the Nash Equilibrium and how it impacted that season. I apologize I cannot credit the poster but the insight was amazing, and they nailed Chris as the winner of the game after only a few episodes. If EPMB and JP believe in it enough to mention it during the Thailand reunion show, perhaps it is worthwhile to examine how well each player is being edited in there ability to play the game based on Nash Equilibrium.
Ulong is being edited purely as a L-Tribe (leaderless). The great scene with all of them standing around after voting off Jolanda, still makes me chuckle. James, Kim, Angie, and Ib as, or edited as, followers. Stephanie has a chance of coming out the leader, but the disjointed voting at Ulong leads me to believe that, if she is a leader, she doesn’t have currently have control over anyone outside of James and Angie. I thought JP suggesting at TC of “get a goal”, could really imply “get a leader”. In episode 3 we began to see the emergence of BJ as a potential leader type. Spoilers aside, if Stephanie or Bobby Jon can step up as a leader this would become an N-Tribe and could potentially improve the standing of all the tribe members. If they don't, this tribe is dust, along the great lines of other leaderless tribes. Anyone remember Pagong. Regardless, Steph and BJ have been edited as the two favorites on Ulong.
Koror, at best, is being edited as an N-Tribe (one leader) or at worst, is a D-Tribe (two leaders). Tom and Ian are both leader types and both appear to be willing to acquiesce to control by the other. We also may see a fat-five scenario where one will be edited as the leader, while the other becomes the strategic decision maker. There is also a possibility that Katie could become the strategic decision maker for this alliance. While Tom and Ian have no TD confessions, Katie has four, one of which discussed the decisions and consequences theme. Ian did pick her first and she then picked Tom. This could be a pretty tight alliance and, without conflict, one leader should emerge. Of course Koror has yet to visit TC and all this could change once strategy is put on the front burner. Gregg and Jenn appear to be followers, I don’t think anyone has ever projected the UTR strategy better than Jenn.
On a side note, I found the numbers of confessionals and concern regarding the Jeff/Kim romance to be quite high for a romance that was never really fleshed out and not the determining factor in the boot of Jeff or the targeting of Kim. Could these be greater concerns and foreshadowing for the Koror tribe in dealing with the rumored Greg/Jenn relationship? Just a thought.
The remaining four members appear to have a much weaker alliance of their own. I believe Caryn and Coby have the desire to lead, but not the strength or charisma of Tom or Ian. Regardless of desire, Coby appears to be willing to take more a followers role, while Caryn is not. Willard and Janu, as of now, are sheep. I agree that the editing has Willard going first, but according to Nash Equilibrium Caryn should go next and Coby will probably vote against her. He is being edited as playing a smarter game.
Regardless whether Koror is a N-Tribe or D-Tribe Tom, Ian and Katie are set up well to continue further. Coby is also being edited well in his ability to adapt and take more of a followers role in a tribe where there is already a dominate leader.
Once again, I apologize for being unable to link to last year’s analysis or the original article, both of which are excellent.
ETA its Coby not Colby.
Rosie, I could be mistaken, but I believe KOBrien fan, (Katie) deserves credit for that.She nailed Chris early on. Go KO!
Please call me Cat!!
(suddenly wishing I was 20 yrs younger and lived in Alabama)
Yes, Rosie, great memory! It was indeed our beloved KOfan that nailed Chris using the Nash gaming theory that you mention. At the time I was intrigued by it and she sent me to the site. The best scenario it turned out to be was the tribe with the one leader. It was great to be the leader of a tribe of followers. In a tribe that had more than one leader though, it was best to be an UTR follower. So, keeping this in mind, I agree that you have pegged Ulong correctly...they are a tribe full of followers with no distinct leader....things don't look good. I have yet to make a complete assessment of Koror yet, as we have not really had a good look at tribal dynamics. The glimpses that we are getting however do suggest they may have more than one leader, and if that's the case, look to an UTR, follower in that tribe to go the farthest....I'm holding out with my prediction until some more dynamics at Korer are presented.Great post!
Fp
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-05 AT 09:32 AM (EST)In this case, Ian makes a great case to be the winner under the Nash gaming theory. There's a few take-charge personalities in the tribe, and Ian is a leader -- but he does it quietly and lets Tom make most of the 'loud' decisions in the tribe and as a result, people such as Caryn are whining and bitching openly about Tom ... but not a peep about Ian's leadership so far.
The editing is becoming more and more clear, in my mind, that Ian is going to beat out Tom at the end. We've been shown a few negative comments from Tom and towards him by others, while we have yet to hear one single negative thing about Ian. We're being made to like Tom more than Ian through the editing so far, though, I'd think -- a slight misdirection to cause viewers to focus on Tom a little more away from the real winner, Ian?
Scratch and sniff
Could there be any better of a contrast between these two tribes than the IC vs RC.I don't believe we have ever seen a tribe fall appart like this before. We've seen tribes go on losing streaks before but never with this degree of a melt down. Ulong has to be shaking their heads at how they are losing to Koror and for Ibe and Kim they are hearing nothing but some loss change. I really doubt they understand what Jify has said at TC or why they are losing. They are a tribe devoid of any self realization.
Ulong:
Angie has evened out as stated by VS and others. She, in a weird sort of way is her tribes strongest member. She is getting the Rupert underdog edit. This person is usually the surprise boot.
BJ with all those bags on his back was symbolically carrying his tribe on his back. It wasn't enough. All of BJ's hard work is hardly appreciated or even noticed by his self adsorbed tribe. EPMB is putting a lot of effort into showing the futility of BJ's effort.
Kim, is one of those contestants who just manages to hang on week after week despite herself. Her still being in this game is a testament to the bad choices Ulong has made.
James is providing the commetary for his tribe and their complete lack of cohession is revealed in his words. He is playing the game within his tribe but has no clue that the game is played as a tribe FIRST.
Stephs edit is interesting in that Jeff is showing her as real competitor and her and Jen going at it in the RC was our first hint of War. Jify comments about her and Jen going out it could be a hint of more trouble for those two later on. Her being the last women in the IC was pointed out by Jify. She would have fit well in with Koror. I'm glad you mentioned her prior relationship with Tom. I don't think EPMB would have shown us that if they hadn't been brought back together later on.
Ibe a lot like Kim has nothing but his looks. He was seen more this week, but only because in the IC he managed to finally be a factor. His comments about how Koror works as a tribe, yet he draws no conclusion from that.
Koror:
We have been shown no alliance or potential voting blocks. This tribe is not SHOWN to be playing the game on an individual level. They are playing the game as a tribe. They are the anti-Ulong. This editing pattern is important because it has gone on since Ep1.
Are we starting to see a War Theme?
Tom, Ian and Gregg just three knuckleheads. We'd expect Gregg to be the strongest member of this group yet it's Tom followed by Ian. In the IC it was Tom's leadership that allowed them to catch up, yet as VS pointed out it was Ian, who diving, struck the fatal blow to Ulong. Gregg was just there as a soider, hmmm...Is it me or are we starting to flesh out a war theme?
We have the superior looking fire power of Ulong against the what appears to be the undermanned Koror. Koror may be losing the battles ie the RC but they are winning the war ie the IC's.There is no investment in Willard what so ever. He is this seasons Chad.
Katie, who can't perform in challenges, yet the focus is on her as being bossy and hard to get along with.
Caryn is shown as confrontational and a quick to blow her fuse. She is not as much of a team player as the others. Coby and her could be a potential alliance yet nothing has been said.
Coby is shown as the sneaky one.
Jen's store has yet to be fleshed out.
You know you're in trouble when...
..after 3 boots you have yet to have hardly any face time or even your name mentioned. Tops to that list is Willard followed by Ibe and then Jen.Still getting a negative edit...
...Kim, James(funny and paranoid), Caryn, Coby and Katie.Getting a good edit...
Angie, BJ, Steph, Ian, Tom, Gregg and the only person who makes two of my lists is Jen.
DRONES
DRONES, I know you have, (like myself) been anxiously awaiting the war theme to present itself and it does seem we may see the initial stirrings of it. Let's hope it doesn't die out the way Ulong seems to beAgain, great thoughts everyone and keep them coming. In a very strange season, the more the better
If Ulong goes yet again to Tribal Council, I don't think there is any other perspective boot but Kim which sometimes in the world of Survivor, the obvious boot IS the boot. With Koror, I do believe the Caryn and Katie issues may be a means of misdirection for now so the audience will be somewhat surprised if Willard goes.
One other note as I had found earlier Coby's "throw away" comment the first episode strange. When Bobby got picked, Coby stated "Good choice" As we established, Bobby is getting a very positive edit and the weight of Ulong on his shoulders. At this time, I do still believe Bobby is eliciting sympathy from the viewers and that is usually NOT a good sign; in the same token it does have me question whether he gets far enough to infiltrate the Korors. I am positive on Stephenie based on the pre tribe alliance talks. Bobby's admiration of Tom and Coby's offhand remark left in gives those who rely on the editing pause as to what this may mean.
I will be watching closely this week again to Bobby in particular seems Stephenie I have felt will be safe for quite some time. Angie again, does give me the impression that in some form she will reach her end by the hands of Koror and since her underdog status is done, all that is left is her as a competitor. She doesn't need to get to the end now.
The pre show analysis we did is pretty much stable; BJ is the only surprise thus far. I do think there is a shark in Koror's midst. It remains to be seen whether the Koror contingent comes out on top.
Agree, enjoyed your insights DRONES!VS, your observations about the challenges is what grabbed me most this round. I wish I can keep everything you say at the forefront, but hey, I'm just not very good at that (so I rely on you).
"Ulong does well in individual challenges and Koror does well in team challenges." Paraphrazed. I'll be looking for this edit this week. Will this edit continue with the challenges given for week 4? Or could team dynamics be changing and did we get a clue last week?
Coby noted that 9 people is too much and people are starting to get on eachothers nerves. Could this be the sign that this week the team challenge won't go to Koror due to infighting?
Does Ulong's desperation to win an IC cause them to finally come together and work as a team, (perhaps appoint a leader) in the team challenges?
LookeeLoo
Another Dicey Original 2004
Interestingly, this week it looks like the RC will require teamwork (according to the Storyboard they will have to build something), while the IC is a one-against-one competition. In theory Koror is better suited to win the RC and Ulong the IC. We'll see if that is what happens.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
LAST EDITED ON 03-08-05 AT 01:38 PM (EST)
Yes indeed BR In theory, it would seem that Koror would win the RC and Ulong the IC. If this does not turn out to be the case, I do wonder though if it could indicate a turning of the tides for Ulong? With that I would say, LLoo, I would certainly agree with your thuoghts
ETA: kingfish I meant to reply to you as well. You know I was only joking with you over your sarcasmWhat seems to be a sub-theme (to me) is the contrast between appearance and substance. Not necessarily any foreshadowing or longevity clues, but the contrasts are interesting, Jeff (strong but a quitter) and Angie (pudgy/weird but a fighter winner), or Ian (stick boy/killer, competitor), or Tom (older guy, out lasts younger), Ibe (big strong guy, but ultimately beaten by stick boy), Stephanie (woman who outlasts men).
Is MB out to teach the world a lesson in life? Hope not.
I do believe this is something that MB does like to do often. I think he did this in other seasons as well especially Thailand. I think a trade story telling from Mark Burnett is the deception of people in a variety of ways. He couldn't have told a better story regarding THAT in this season
Coby and Angie have followed parallel paths in this game. Both started out considering themselves the "underdogs." Coby said the same thing about himself again last night.Both then proved themselves as standout players in challenges. With Angie, we've heard her tribe voice their respect for her performance. Insider transcripts show Coby's tribe responded similarly after he smoked James last night, and Coby had a nice confessional about it being a victory after being laughed at in sports in the past. But that wasn't included in the show.
Could Coby have at least another "triumph" coming? Maybe a tough RC win that ironically makes a merged tribe wary of his strength, and he gets voted out?
Then we'd see the significance of the Angie/Coby encounter on Day 1. Both thought they'd be the underdogs, but their downfall ended up being their strength (if the "Angie gets booted by Koror next episode" prediction proves true).
I'll get us started with EP4.Koror was dominant this week against Ulong, in both the RC and IC. Suprisingly Ulong still sees themselves as the "better" tribe. The men of Ulong, as was pointed out by Jify at TC, didn't get the job done, and the women carried their tribe. Could this mean that one or both of the women in Ulong goes farther than any of the men in the game?
Team Play vs Individual Play
Ulong is still playing the game as individuals. They are a tribe without either direction or any clear leadership. It's not as if this tribe is without any potential leaders. Angie, Steph or BJ could clearly fill this role. It's as if they are in a constant state of anarchy. Ulong was still working on their RC up until the last minute. Like most of the challenges they were were behind Koror who had finished well before the inspector arrived and were ready to go.
EPMB is going out his way to show that in order to survive this game the players must first become a team. This is why there is so much focus on the strong team play of Koror vs the individual play of Ulong. Even players like Caryn and Coby are shown to give way to the leadership of Ian and Tom. This was shown when they choose Ian as their representative for the RC, despite the fact that there were others who were willing to take on that role.
Ulong
BJ and Angie are the two players that we are suppose to cheer for on that tribe.Angie is the player who was thought to be the weakest and was choosen last. She has redeemed herself, and is shown to be one of her tribes strongest memmbers. Her story is almost completed. She has outlasted almost all of the women and is no longer seen as the "freak" or her tribe.
BJ is tilting at windmills. All of his hard work is hardly recognized. It has been pointed out by several players in his tribe that he is going to wear himself out. He is the voice of frustration for his tribe.
Steph is clearly UTR and is safe for a while. Her and Jen keep getting pitted in head to head competitions and she has yet to loose. This is the second time those two have gone head to head in a RC. Jiffy made a comment in the RC where they fought over the buoy, that the physical nature of this challange could produce some hard feelings. He said that this is also a social game. We have not seen the last of Steph vs Jen. Despite how hard those two have gone at each other in the RC, we have not seen any confessionals by either player regarding their match ups.
James was choosen as his tribes representative for the RC. I can't remember who first said he should do it, but the rest of his tribe agreed.
Koror
Willard and Janu have yet to have their story fleshed out. This does not bode well for them. Despite them still being in the game we are not suppose to get to invested in them. Willard made a sarcastic remark in confessional about Tom and Ian, when he said that they always make it a point to compliment each person in their tribe and to not leave anyone out.Katie's story has revolved around her conflict with Caryn. I don't really know what else to say about her because there just isn't much there to talk about.
Caryn is the villian of this tribe. She's the one who's shown making all the snide comments. She is put off by the the power structure in this tribe but is unable to do anything about it.
Jen has had very little face time except when she has battled with Steph, as I pointed out above. She will get a spike in face time this episode when her relationship with Greg is finally shown.
Gregg gets face time but only when he is shown with Ian and Tom. That tells me he is the 3rd wheel of that threesome. Hopefully this week we can finally get some more face time for him.
Coby, although given a lot of face time, is still a mystery to me. If not for Caryn he would be seen as the villian. His confessionals are focused on the individual rather than the tribe. He's the narrator for his tribe. Coby, like Willard has noted the power that both Ian and Tom hold in their tribe.
You can't talk about Ian with out talking about Tom. They are the co-leaders of their tribe. They go to each other for all decisions and in confessionals have talked about the other as the leader, while never proclaiming themseves as such.
The only open conflict on Koror was between Katie and Caryn. What was noticebly missing was what the rest of their tribe thought. EPMB is putting in front of our face a tribe that is team oriented. They may have conflicts, but those conficts don't affect their performance.
In previouis seasons when one tribe wins a lot of IC, there is talk from that tribe of how they wouldn't mind losing(one tribe even threw a challange). There has only been one comment(I forget by who) made, that when you are with a group of people for a long period of time that someone is bound to get on your nerves.
DRONES
Episode four put the finishing touches on the Ulong Tribe. The team centered Koror tribe finally won a physicial challenge in the Sumo at Sea Challenge. Coupled with their win in the team based RC challenge of their new camp they can't do anything but get stronger. Not a good position for Ulong to be in when you are down by four members. James attempt to be a leader didn't go over to well as both Kim and Steff complained about him losing to Coby in the IC.BJ, although he is the workhorse in this tribe seems to always come up short while competing individually with Tom.They are at the point in the game where nomatter what happens during the rest of the game they will be at a numerical disadvantage Again not a good position to be in when the other tribe is still strongly united. James and BJ's time remaining in this game will be limited. Angie's comments during the IC will not be taken well by the Koror tribe. They are so team related they will take personal attacks on teamates as an attack on them individually. Angie's personal quest to fit in and show what she is made of to her teammates will not endear her to the Koror tribe.In fact her challenge performances might lead to her taking the walk sooner rather than later.Steff as the strongest Ulong women should have a target on her back but she hasn't been ruffling any feathers on Ulong as well as on Koror as far as I can see. Ibe has been UTR for most of this season and his story is yet to be told in my opinion. This is my take on the notmuchlongerinthegame team for what it's worth.RedBeard
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-05 AT 02:00 AM (EST)While I like Tom, I think the editing might be setting him up for a fall.
His character is basically the strong leader on the dominant tribe. That type hasn't done well in the past. The two who stick out in my mind are John C. from S4 and Ami last season. Both were liked and respected at the beginning of the season, but their strength was their undoing. The underlings banded together and voted out the leader. Ami was pretty much on the outs with her tribe by her end; John might have pulled it off if it wasn't for that coconut challenge.
To a lesser extent, Rupert falls into this category (but although he was a challenge powerhouse, he never had any clout in the strategy side). Lex tried to take the position. It almost got him booted early, and his alliance shot him down the next episode (when they voted out Brandon instead of Frank, like Lex wanted).
I really can't think of any counterexamples. Brian comes close, but he was more of a strategy guy, and I wouldn't characterize his team as strong (Jan? Clay?) or weak, since they held their own in challenges eventually. Not to say I don't want Tom to prevail. I just wouldn't be surprised if we eventually see a shake-up either within the "Coby 5," or some of the underdogs convince some within that alliance to turn. How the heck else could Caryn last as long as the spoilers say?
ETA: Quick note about Bobby Jon. We've also seen the "strong leader of a weak tribe" character before. That one doesn't do well, either. Think Andrew, Ken or Sarge.
Great observications everyone!! I needed to rewatch this episode since it appeared on the surface to be fairly straight forward. Koror prevails and Ulong dies.You have basically stated much of my thoughts so forgive me Iif I am repeating your (DRONES, we certainly had consistent thoughts in quite a number of areas) Some of everyone's comments are a bit different from my observations, I'm glad we do this so I can "see" things that I may be missing
Warning: Long post ahead (but that is nothing new)
In terms of “fluff stuff” there was not as much as we usually get but we did see an interesting emergence of a male vs. women contigent over at Ulong. No doubt this will be a factor somehow in the boot situation
The characters essentially stayed the same from last episode with one or two differentials which do lead me to certain conclusions. First with that:
Characters with Editing Shifts/Dives
Ulong
James - Certainly a turn for the worse; not only was he shown to completely be the antithesis of Ian in the reward challenge. Most prevalent were his derisive comments about Coby (I have yet to see a winner shown discussing someone in that vein become the winner. If there is any negative commentary by a winner, it is not as specific as he was about Coby.) In addition, we are hearing first hand from his own tribe with regard to James “over actions” with regard to his methods at the reward challenge and his demise at the immunity challenge. James edit is going South.
Angie Again I had noted when they did the challenge in water where she was a wildcat on Janu and Gregg. We established the “underdog” edit is long gone and in fact, she is truly a valuable member to her tribe. The Sumo challenge has made her edit dip even further. DESPITE the fact we “appreciate” how far she has come, I would suggest that others who determine her fate may not like her displays.
” We are not going back to Immunity! Tribal Council” Let THEM know how it feels!"
Gave me a chuckle but the tenet here is that she is not making friends with this other tribe, Koror. They aren’t seeing the underdog she was; they are seeing a very “nasty” player and a potentially dangerous one. Angie HAD potential to get further until this edit change. Again as stated when this edit turned; it seems prophetic that Koror will be able to rid themselves of her.
Koror
Jenn speaks Is it safe to say that the majority of us did a double take? I know I did and immediately thought Jenn has finally entered the game. It was a throwaway comment but if you noticed closely, we saw various times throughout the episode that Gregg and Jenn were together in situations where we could have seen OTHER Korors doing the same thing. Gregg and Jenn both shouting encouragement to each other at the IC, Gregg with his arm around Jen after the RC and so forth. The editors made a point of showing this and with the upcoming promo of this “romance” it makes sense.
After this episode we will be able to see where Jenn is going, i.e. a storyline that ENDS after the romance gets full attention or whether there is more to her there than JUST the romance. The fact we know she is insulated in the dominant alliance is certainly helpful.
Willard Willard speaks!! Again, like Jenn, we question why now? Of note however with Willard is the obvious fact he is the oldest and weakest but more interesting is that his name was not mentioned during Coby’s confessional of where everyone stands Coby mentions Ian, Tom, Gregg, Katie and Jen as an alliance and himself, Janu and Caryn as the “underdogs” Unless I did not hear Coby, Willard's name was not mentioned This leads one to conclude he is not integral to any upcoming story Willard’s confessional was also not about himself but sharing a perspective on Tom (and Ian) which WILL be integral to Koror. Sadly, Willard is not.
Caryn Like Angie, Caryn’s characterization is increasingly negative. The last show capitalized on Tom’s almost larger than life status. Yet Caryn is shown increasingly biting (marginally about Tom) and everyone deferring to him. Caryn did not come off to the viewers in a situation where we could empathize; it was viewed as being petty and jealous especially in light of Tom’s stellar edit this entire episode.
In summary, Angie, James, Willard, Caryn editing does not bode well for them. Caryn I question for a longer edit as her obvious quest to rid herself of those like Tom, Ian and Katie will no doubt surface. Considering she is in a faction with Coby who by all intents and purposes has been shown to us as really the only narrative regarding the game itself, Caryn may get one dig in prior to leaving. However, this “attitude” we are being shown especially against Tom and Ian will serve her no purpose
The Challenges
I have been glued to my television with these challenges. I must say they have to be the most consistently brutal immunity challenges I recall
Again, note the differences that Mark Burnett is painstakingly showing us about each tribe.
In the Reward Challenge picking their representatives again, we practically were shown cartoonish behavior on the part of Ulong. All standing around, umming and then they decide............................ to go fishing.
At Koror, all gathered around, discussing options (albiet some were not as happy) but the decision were made and was enthusiastically stated in a chorus of “Ian” when Jeff arrived.
Ian: Asks the tribe if THEY are okay with the tools he selected
James Confidently and somewhat arrogantly selects the tools
Ian KOROR is going nuts (regarding their enthusiasm in building)
James: I’M feeling good. I can take MY skills.....Again, Koror, despite who is “leading” is about team effort, NOT individual. Again, Ulong is all about individual. This may serve them well come “every man for himself” but not when you want to win as a tribe.
James being the leader but not behaving as a true leader. His comments were condescending and did not promote teamwork. Ian and Tom on the other hand were encouraging and citing good work.
Willard: "They are very careful not to go without saying something good in front of the group." (I would be interested in hearing the rest of that confessional. Interestingly enough it could have been fleshed out where Willard stated something along the lines of negativity about it. If that is the case it is then patently obvious that only CARYN is meant to be shown negative about Tom)
The finished product showed Ulong all surface, no substance. Nice vase but that won’t win you the game. Comparative to their own surface. Much note made on Ulong and their physical prowess however that isn’t getting the job done either.
At the Immunity Challenge a lot of interesting scenes. Is it any wonder that BJ and Tom would fight each other after the dialogue we heard from Bobby about Tom?
Stephenie and Angie both blatantly showing their strength. The major difference between these two is the pre tribe alliance discussions Stephenie had with Tom whereas Angie’s talk with Coby was more about “misfits coming together” This had nothing to do with the game as evidenced by Coby NOT picking her.
Ibe’s personality rearing its ugly head. Blatant cockiness at any challenge NEVER bodes well for the person doing it.Interesting quotes
Angie”They found Nemo” (More humorous than anything but Ulong just keeps getting the tiny fish)
Stephenie “I can’t believe the other tribe hasn’t lost anything”
James “It’s our time now
Ian “You never know what rabbit may pull out of its hat”
Considering the extent of these types of conversation that were going on, it is suggestive then Koror is going to Tribal Council. The promos do indicate as such and the obvious foreshadowing solidifies this, however these comments are coupled with:
Bobby “I hope we learned something but right now I don’t think we have”
Kim “I’m sitting back and letting the beast attack the beast”
James: “Koror is using strategy come IC”
Despite the fact that Ulong is perfectly aware of what Koror is doing right, Ulong has failed to make adjustments on THEIR part to fix what is wrong. A tribe cannot win if adjustments are not made to correct the problem.
Tom “We are a tough tribe, we’re okay” (Indeed they are and by all accounts, remain to be)
JProbst”Jen, scraping those knees but not giving up” (Jen does battle and against Steph; Steph has always won those battles but Jen doesn’t give up, I can see that there may be a boot scenario where both are shown as potential targets)
JProbst “James on the edge” (No question, James IS on the edge and will be gone sooner rather than later)
JProbst “Ulong stays alive!” (Note at that moment, there was a shot of Stephenie posed and smiling after her victory- Stephenie stays alive?)
Bobby Jon “Fight, fight, fight, fight, that’s all I know how to do” (I do believe that Bobby will be fighting until the very end of his stay)
Kim to Steph: “Kick all the guys off” (May be prophetic, note that this is said to Stephenie or at least shown saying just to Stephenie; Angie was not part of this instruction by Kim)
JProbst “Tom, you are a great tour guide!” (And this is what I sense sadly with Tom, a great, great tour guide for Koror but not the winner; see more below)
Interesting Visuals and Showings
Bobby Jon and the tree Wow, imagery at its finest. BJ hacking away, hacking away, interspersed with: ”When I am working hard on something, my whole body and soul goes into it. You got to want it...... That’s what winners do..... keep fighting and perservering” Yet, what happens.........he can’t get the tree to fall This is the symbolic "stuff" I live for
Bobby, again, has come across very well in the editing. He takes responsibility at Tribal Council, he commends the women in their performance and so forth. Alas, Bobby’s sympathetic edit (again) signifies to me the audience is to feel badly for him; this doesn’t bode well in terms of long term range. Bobby’s story concerning Tom may have resolved itself at the immunity challenge; they met up with each other “man vs. man” but Bobby lost out. For all that Bobby is trying to do to work and prevail, he comes up short.
Tom and his omnipotence Could Tom be shown next week wearing angel wings? It seems that is what Mark Burnett is trying to shown. Between the bleeding shot on the challenge mat that almost appeared to be swathed in sunlight and slowed down a bit and the way he is shown blatantly to be the leader of Koror as per Willard: ”Tom is our motor that makes the train run” his almost unearthly editing is too good to be true. Unlike Rupert, I believe Tom IS all this but like Rupert, he cannot and will not, in my opinion, win this game. A major reason for this is the editing of Tom in conjunction with the editing of Ian
Both Ian and Tom have undoubtedly been shown as the leaders and positive foundation for Koror. However, note that Ian is not nearly showcased in this vein as Tom is Ian’s stellar edit is there but it isn’t. Willard makes mention of both of them, Tom suggests that Ian IS, in fact, been a good leader for them. But, Tom is the one shown incredibly dynamic and in the same token brings out the ire in Caryn. Ian is shown very positively but it is much more subtle It is suggestive to me then that Tom goes out in a blaze of glory whereas Ian subtly moves forward. At this moment with the editing, there is no reason for me not to believe Ian prevails
Ironic and/or telling?
A nest of busy bees then a shot of Koror
The snake again then we switch to Ulong
The tiny little rat at Koror (note Katie’s comments about the rats)
Ian and Tom mock dancing and Ian dips Tom
Gregg mentions on the Insider how Janu is key to his plan yet Coby mentions Janu in his underdog contingent. Barely anything thus far shown of Janu yet apparently she is a key player for two sides of a coin. We may see something evolving shortly for Janu and her lack of showing DESPITE that apparently a lot happens regarding her, makes me question if there is going to be a major emergence for Janu
Coby is practically the only member of Koror who talks in game talk. He will be the one to watch when key boot situations comes forth.
Animal imagery very prevalent in terms of fish, snakes and rats. Again, there are quite a few rats at Koror (the underdogs or Katie or Janu, who had the most reaction to the rats?) The snakes show up before Ulong YET Koror slaughtered them and who is indeed the great shark in all this.
Long Term or Short Term
At this juncture, I would have to say in light of Ulong’s standings, regardless if one or two sneak their way into Koror, their odds on paper are not good. Therefore, it would be foolhardy to suggest any of them to win this game. I would suggest I like for end game Ian to come out on top especially in light of the subtle editing he is receiving comparative to Tom In addition, we are still left with the unanswered question of a not yet shown pairing between Katie and Ian as Ian did pick her. Katie has been the biggest narrator of any of the females on Koror We now see development with Gregg and Jenn beginning Interestingly enough, where WOULD that leave Tom? Tom is a beautiful fourth place, perhaps third place finisher in editing terms. Willard we were finally shown, albeit just a glimpse. Some may feel surprise that we are going to have to see more of him before he goes and after this many seasons of watching this show I do not agree with that assessment. No investment means no story (including what is going on that we see on the Insider) There has been nothing further on Willard. The mere fact we finally saw something come from Willard and it involved the makeup of the tribe rather than how he feels about himself on the tribe coupled with Coby’s mention of everyone EXCEPT Willard is not good He is also the eldest.
Caryn is being set up to rock Koror’s boat, her editing, however, does not bode well for a winner. Coby is going to have some very very interesting moments We have seen the player in him from the beginning. Again, I equate him to be much like Amazon Rob and see him probably getting deep into the game but not quite making it. Katie is a shoe in for as long as Ian and/or Tom lasts BUT, I don’t like her as the winner. Janu, an extremely interesting lack of showing in a scenario where she should be. Janu, may in fact, be the one to upend whoever’s alliance is in control Gregg and Jen are evolving which is a good thing, Gregg has individual strength to forge ahead and Jen will probably do a decent amount of time but certainly, in my opinion is not at the very endStephenie again, in my opinion must meet up again with her pre tribe alliance people Bobby cannot get any more sympathetic to us which is not good long term Angie’s impact has concluded, James is as good as gone Ibeis our resident non impact person; he will be a boot when he is a boot; he has neither longevity or major threat story status.
The best editing positions are: Ian, Coby, Stephenie, Katie and Gregg. Janu intrigues me and Jen will probably be steady “along for the ride” edit.
MB often seems to like a story line where pride and arrogance cometh before the fall - such as with John and Amy. Ian and Tom are true leaders though, I believe unlike anyone that has been on Survivor before. I do not believe that the power will go to their heads and result in arrogance leading to their downfalls. Willard's comments about Ian and Tom being one and each of them being careful to say something nice to the others every day suggest leaders who will maintain perspective and not turn on each other voluntarily. I am eager to see whether they will live up to their better or baser instincts.
WONDERFUL POST VS..they just keep getting better!!I just wanted to add some info. on Ian and to note that before they showed Koror for the first time in the episode, they showed a RAT and then KATIE is shown going to get treemail with Jenn as her tagalong... I think Katie will end up being the rat to Tom and get him ousted at F4 and try to be it to Ian but he prevails with the jury.
Some telling quotes from Ian:
About him being picked the leader and having experience with his dad's construction company, farm, etc.
"It worked out okay."
I would say that could be the "winning quote" about the game as a whole!!
About the RC challenge and Koror
"Koror is going nuts with this thing."
Again, not only with the RC in ep. 4 but with the game as a whole.
After they found out they won the RC Ian says:
"Everything worked out the way it was supposed to!"
Another winning quote?
Katie is still being edited as the Koror Mother figure(not caryn who is the 'biotchy' aunt figure)After the Survivor crew builds the great shelter it is Katie that says it will make "A great home" and the "quality of life will be much better."
I don't think anyone else but Ian is getting close to the winner's edit....WOOHOO!!
Great analysis, VS. I always read and follow along this thread with great interest. This point in particular jumped out at me.In addition, we are still left with the unanswered question of a not yet shown pairing between Katie and Ian as Ian did pick her.
I think it's fascinating that we're 5 episodes into this season before we're given a clue as to how the alliances on Koror lay (through Coby's confessional). There obviously hasn't been a great need to reveal the alliances, since Koror keeps winning immunity, and I think this is some indication that Ulong will continue to lose--except this week, when a Koror boot will follow Coby's brief revelation of the Koror alliance.
This certainly doesn't mean that Koror hasn't been forming alliances--they didn't know when the first tribal council was going to be held, so they formed them very quickly--we just haven't been shown them. I think there was an Ian-Katie-Tom alliance (and I'd include Stephanie in there as well) from the very beginning, which governed the first three picks. I think Stephanie would have been Tom's next pick, except Bobby John picked her for Ulong first. This alliance has been implied, but it hasn't been shown or mentioned, until Coby's confessional--and even then, not by itself, but with Gregg and Jenn attached.
I believe that alliances and strategies revealed usually do not succeed, so I think this is an indication that these 5 aren't the final 5--but because we haven't seen the Ian-Katie-Tom core by themselves yet, they might be our final 3 after all. I also think we were shown Stephanie's initial part of this alliance (through her brief interaction with Tom in episode 1) because her role this alliance hasn't fully played out yet--whether she might be welcomed back at the merge or discarded.
VS, I don't think I've commented before, but I always look forward to your posts. I find myself trying to make sense of why we're being shown what we're being shown but I usually can't make a coherent statement about my musings until I see your post.I do follow the spoilers and try to think in long term and short term. Dunno if it helps. I'll know more this week. At the moment I'm looking at things more generally instead of specifically - what have we seen the most these last few weeks and how can it be applied to this week and the final episode.
Anyhoo, your post has jelled some of my random thoughts. It's still not coherent, but here goes:
On Ulong we have Steph who turned the tide against Jo, their leader, plus Ib, James, & Angie. All were quite willing to vote out Kim over Jeff. BJ was the only person on that tribe to recognized half a Jeff was worth more to them than an entire Kim. I believe he was thinking short term & long term - in the future. The others were just looking at the next TC and not beyond. Does this mean those who don't think about the future, have no future?
We aren't seeing an edit that leads us to believe BJ will be voted out soon. Will EPMB find a way to extend an olive branch to BJ and let the rest of his tribe be annihilated?
I think Caryn's fate is to end up on Ulong, the tribe that has no leader. There's talk of a swap this week and a double TC vote. If 2 people are swapped, I think that BJ and Caryn switch tribes. If so, I wonder if we'll at least temporarily not see so much of the BJ sympathy edit.
Ian's Bad News Bears quote still bothers me. Whether it's getting back their flint or winning an IC, we've seen Koror prevail in the end, against what appear to be long odds. At the end, will an individual from Ulong win the reward, or will they go the way of the rest of their tribe, finishing second and losing immunity when somebody originally from Koror prevails?
What I find interesting is that except for Coby's confessional about a possible alliance break down and Willards comment about Tom and Ian we have yet to see strategy talk by the players.Ulong has lost 4 players yet there is still no talk of alliances. Why? One reason could be because there isn't any. They seem to be flying by the seat of their pants as was evident in the RC. They have no long term strategy as individuals or as a tribe. Another reason, and the one I subscribe to, is that it doesn't matter what their alliance strategy is, because none of the advance enough in the game for it to matter.
Koror strategy is being hidden for now. There is no need to show it right now because they are winning. Their story is being saved until closer to the merge.
I can't remember who said this, but in the first episode someone commented about how hard it would be to go against Tom in the finals. Since the first ep. he's been shown this way.
Ian has not been shown this way, or had any comments about him as a potential F2 opponent. He's not even being shown as a threat.
Caryn's role is to upset the apple cart. Unlike Ibe or Willard who when they are boot will be booted, having no impact on the game. She's the rat in her tribe and will be working to chip at the edges of the Tom, Ian, Gregg, Jenn and Katie alliance.
The 1st ep showed Steph and Tom making an early alliance. This was shown for a reason along with her battles with Jen. I keep going back to Jiffy's comments right before those two went at it in the water for the buoy. Jiffy said something to the effect that this is a social game and these battles could create tension later on after the merge. The battle between these two is not over. Will Steph get the better of Jen come the merger, or will Steph be done in by the social aspect of this game because she went after Jen, and Jen didn't like it.
Speaking of head to head battles, we have yet to be shown any negative comments(remember James in is own awkward way was complimentary of Coby) by the competitors about these battles. We've been shown raw emotion by Angie and Ibe, but those weren't direct personal attacks.
Angie has completely switched over from an under dog misfit to a strong player with attitude. A complete switch in editing.
BJ's edit has not changed. A hard worker trying to do it all. Taking the troubles of his tribe on his own shoulders. You cheer him on knowing that he's not going to prevail.
Ulong has been set up by EPMB as the perfect example of why team work is so important early on in this game. Every single season of survivor has started out with Jiffy saying how these individuals are going to have to work as a tribe in order to survive. The imagery of Ulong, the entire tribe, going out to fish and only managing to get just a tiny one. Shots of them laying around the beach. Comments by James that we don't need a leader, plays perfectly into the editing of Ulongs demise.
DRONES
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-05 AT 11:34 AM (EST)James seems to be a classic setup for next weeks boot. His edit this week was very negative, his clumsy and insulting attempt to compliment Coby, his default appointment as Ulong rep which he interpreted to be an appointment to BOSS. He went from Rep. to tyrant (get your A## over there!) a little too easily.
And he was shown as an ineffective leader, although some of that has to be pure negative editing since the latrine was finished (just barely) and seemed to be pretty good attempt.
The comments from the women about James that are shown are negative comments. To be fair, he did get a slight positive edit when the remark about being a redneck and not using a toothbrush. That might have been one of those "too good to pass up" remarks even if it worked against the image of James they were going for.
Although the editing is so obviously negative for James that one might smell a skunk (Sorry Pepe), and next weeks editing will be scrutinized, it's hard to escape the conclusion that James is the most probable Boot next week.
So, looks like next week is going to be a spoiling Yawner once again.
Nice job Drones and esp. VC.
Superficial vs Functional, the latrine comparison. There it is again
I don't know how relevant this is to editing but I couldn't think of anywhere else to put it. I thought of it when I saw how good Koror's camp would be after they won the ep. 4 RC. It's like a 'curse', really, much like the car curse.In most past seasons the tribes have had to choose which beach to live at once they merge. In every instance of this happening, the winner has come from the tribe that stayed at their original location after the merge:
S1 - Tagi Beach - Richard
S2 - N/A (a different camp altogether)
S3 - Boran camp - Ethan
S4 - Maraamu beach - Vecepia (yeah, she was switched to that tribe but it doesn't exactly go against my theory)
S5 - Chuay Gahn beach - Brian
S6 - N/A (different area)
S7 - Drake beach - Sandra
S8 - N/A (tribes didn't get to choose)
S9 - Lopevi - ChrisWatching how good the Koror camp now is, there is now way they won't choose that camp as their post-merge camp (if they get to choose). As you can see, past evidence suggests that the winner will come from Koror.
(attempts to ignore incredibly reliable spoilers that already suggests this outcome)
Of course, if they don't get to choose (which may also happen, if they wanted to rob the survivors of a brilliant shelter), it doesn't really disprove my theory.
I thought I would just like to throw that out there and see if anyone agrees with me, or if it's already been discussed, or if anyone can find a better place for it.
LAST EDITED ON 03-15-05 AT 11:21 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 03-15-05 AT 09:51 AM (EST)
great comments everyone and all comments are welcome. While this thread attempts to see the long term results based on the editing of the show, it is understandable that a lot of you are tempering your thoughts with spoilers which is perfectly okay. You'll have to forgive me of course if I don't quite understand some of them as I try not to let them cloud the editing issue or I would have to change the name of this thread to speculating based on spoilers
Gothmog and bobscure I look forward to reading more of what you each have to say as I stated before it helps ME see the show in a better light with different opinions as sometimes my thoughts get clouded due to my subjective opinions on some of the contestants.
Interesting premise applejack; it would be almost nonsensical that the merged tribe wouldn't live at Koror considering the accomodations they have and considering the majority of the merge will be made up of Korors anyway.
It is very hard in this line of speculation to deduce situations when we get barely a glimpse of tribal dynamics such with Koror. We have been getting bits and pieces but these are relevant since we are being shown them for a reason. Despite how wonderfully Koror is doing, MB does NOT want us to go completely ignorant of some potential problems brewing. With that said, the mere fact that Caryn has been part and parcel to a lot of it sheds light on what her role may very well be as DRONES suggested. The fact also that Coby made the AUDIENCE aware of what he observes indicates to me that he probably is going to be integral in strategizing. Ironically we have seen nothing from those like Ian and Tom, who, for the most part, should potentially feel a smack of vulnerability as leaders are aware of that position bringing vulnerability. We will obviously see much more when they go to their first Tribal Council and I have a feeling we are going to see much more of Caryn's thoughts and Coby's as well on this matter. However due to the fact that it seems a probablity that Willard would be deemed the first boot, we may not see an abundance of it. I would suspect this is going to be an emotional situation for Koror (remniscient of Rudy's boot at All Stars perhaps?)
At that point in time, Coby and Caryn will probably be seen a lot. Again interesting that Gregg includes Janu in his plans but from Coby's narrative, he is not aware of this. There will be no doubt a lot more conniving at Koror's SECOND tribal council with potential victims such as Tom, Caryn or Katie.
At this time again, I still feel that Ian is the best contender for the winner especially in light of the way the edit shows Tom and Ian though both of them appear equal in their positions at Koror. In looking back at any foreseeable quotes with reference to Ian, the James quote (though I have never subscribed to the quote editing of a winner HAS to be in the first episode)
James “That skinny little boy, he’s a fast bugger”
We will see if Ian can "outrun" the competition HOWEVER, I might add one other person and that is Coby
I do want to add in review of the pre season and first episode information as I think there is a lot of good information to be had from same. Coby was noted by Jeff (Probst) If he is as good as he thinks he is...... I had made note that Jeff said this same thing about Chris. In addition, Coby essentially IS primarily the only Koror that has been shown "game talking" which I feel is very relevant with many of the winners or at the very least, final two?
The trust test (for me anyway) is to see what happens to IAN's editing. If there is NO discussion of the game and strategy by him then I'm not sure of his winning. Consequently, if Coby maintains strategic discussion without it getting too over the top emotional, he may be in good shape as well.
So I will have to rephrase those at this time I think are in the best position to WIN. That being said there may be a third person in the final two with one of these people but editing wise they seem to be potentially on the right track
I don't know if their editing necessarily means Tom And Ian are in the best position to win, but I would certainly think they'd be around quite a while even if Koror weren't so dominant. Ian is certainly both performing and being edited much better than what I had expected based on pregame information, and while I had expected the typical "leader-type" behavior and editing from Tom, he has been a lot better diplomat than these leader types such as fireman, cops and military people usually are, and he's been an absolute MACHINE at the challenges and camp work, so I think they'll keep him around a lot longer than Survivor contestants typically keep people around who are as much a threat as Tom is. Based on what EPMB has been showing us, unless Tom falls victim to a "biggest threat" boot at some future TC, I think he will last longer than Ian.
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-05 AT 08:15 AM (EST)Good thoughts RR I don't think Tom's editing at all is in a position to win (I think I posted it in one of my lonnnnnnng posts above) Tom's heroic edit is too much, he will and is a fan favorite but those types of edits that I have seen over the seasons do not fare well. There will be outcries when they are booted and we usually can anticipate a boot from the person who helped to instigate it. As I noted, both Ian and Tom are being portayed as the leaders but Ian's edit is getting it in more subtle tones; therefore Ian, to me, is more logical as a winner candidate.
However as I noted somewhere here, more times than not (I never include Vecepia in this type of speculation) the winner has some aspect of letting the audience see a strategy of some type. So far, Ian has not shown us anything. Will this change when Koror finally has to go to Tribal Council? It could. BUT, if Ian's editing continues on the same path with absolutely nothing but a story of his stay and his adventure (so to speak) then I would revise him as a lesser contender. This is why I also mention Coby potentially since we have seen a nice amount of him AND he has established (on the first day) and last episode a display of being aware of being IN THE GAME NOT JUST THE ISLAND.
It is difficult to assess Koror being in the position they are in just like it is difficult to assess any of Ulong to win considering where they stand as well; HOWEVER, Stephenie, to me would also fit an edit so far to be one of victory. Despite Ulong and their breakdown, stranger things can happen. One would never have though Chris would outlast that many women, it didn't appear logical though his edit did suggest longevity.
So, I would suggest that Stephenie has the best promise and at the very least, I trust she will meet up with her pre tribe potential alliance members. Since I normally look at the end first rather than week by week, conceivably Stephenie could win as well; I already noted her preseason and nothing has changed for me. The rest of Ulong I have already discussed as to their status.
Caryn is marginally receiving the villian edit (if one can be had at Koror) Notice the difference in what Willard said about Tom and Caryn. Willard's was an observation of what Tom does and Caryn's was tempered by cattiness. Willard MAY have continued to discuss that he "isn't buying it" but we didn't get the opportunity therefore suggesting we won't see him flesh out. Caryn, with her comments about Katie and Tom will most definitely have a role albiet a negative one. Janu seems to be PART of alliances but we haven't heard that from her mouth. Jen was finally seen and heard but all we saw was her repeating what the challenge entailed.
Gregg has been on the fringes and could expand into a definite player especially in light of the Insider comments (suspiciously ONLY in the Insider comments) and Coby has definitely narrated the Koror dynamic, if only, briefly. Katie has been an adept narrator and they usually last quite a bit as well.
But Tom? Oh no. Tom is Mark Burnett's editing dream to make us adore him. Winner wise, I would not put him there.
So what you're saying VS, is that EPMB is going to let "us" give Tom a million the week after the finale?
Well my friend, if they did, I may even be tempted to vote this timeI am very excited about tonight's episode. The fleshing out will be prevalent; not only by Koror with their own decision to make but also how Koror feels about the Ulong members. Like Vanuatu, I do think one person is going to let out a collective breath of relief much like John K. did for Ami. I don't feel Mark Burnett would give Koror more power than that. This is all about choices. By allowing Koror to do the decision making in its entirety for Ulong, takes away the premise. Everyone should have to make choices, even bad ones.
I agree with you VS. Tonights episode should give us some insight into the members of Koror as they attend TC for the first time. I am going to spend alot of time looking into Coby's statements because he is Koror's player and he seems to have insight into how the game might go from here.IMHO Coby will be the key to how the game goes for Koror from now until his boot.His comments during episode one lead to Jonathan not getting picked. He revealed the pecking order as he sees it on Koror during a confessional. I feel that for as long as he is around his insight into what is going on on his tribe should not be discounted. RedBeard
Just wanted to start a proper episode 5 subthread.A couple of observations from last night:
Was Coby voting to immunized Angie it in terms of their story line? Did they leave the misfits discussion in Ep. 1 just so that we can understand why Coby did this?
Steph voted for BJ? Huh? That struck me as very odd. Certainly, Ibrehem was going home if it hadn't been for being granted a last second reprieve.
Gregg and Jenn really are morphing into Romber. Should we call them Grenn or Grennifer? Clearly though, this is a case of a strategy revealed (that Final 4 option of Grenn, Coby and Janu) that will not succeed. That Janu was featured in the promo means that she is safe for next week but she's likely in trouble next time Koror has to vote someone out.
I thought it was Gregg who voted to immunize Angie. I'm curious if the Insider will show us who voted for whom in the immunity vote.Steph voted for BJ? Huh? That struck me as very odd.
I thought so, too, but on TES this morning a caller asked Angie why they didn't go after James. Angie seemed unsure how to answer but she said that the feeling probably was that James would be safer than Bobby Jon to have around after the merge. And obviously Ulong is praying that the merge is right around the corner since they brought all their supplies to TC.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
As they were walking to TC, after having the voting sequence spelled out by JP. I was 90% convinced that there was no way that Angie could be voted out, even if Ibe (presumably Ulongs primary target) got immunity. With her record, why would the secondary focus be on her? But the fact that they were not prepared for the twist (the bestowing of one immunity by Koror) resulted in a unorganized NoGoLong vote, a shotgun result, and a tie (two votes ea) for Steph and Angie. Angie fell victim to a tie. How about that.For those of us who have had to struggle to comeup with a logical scenario for a Angie boot (I was in the camp figuring that Koror would boot a Schlong), this is an interesting result.
Katie is not getting a winner's edit - she's again being shown negatively, and the minority faction of her tribe sees her as being worthless. Should she make F2 as predicted, this means she would be less likely to get votes from Caryn(duh), Coby, and Janu since none of them would see her as a worthy champion.Those in the minority alliance are smart enough not to stick their necks out when there is no chance of success. Coby acknowledged they didn't have the numbers, so they just hid in the majority vote to avoid ruffling anyone else's feathers. This even poured over into their behavior at the Ulong TC. Coby had been the one to suggest not rubbing the other tribe's noses in their victory, and the shots during the feast showed the C/C/J eating their stew in silence. They won't stick their necks out when there's nothing to be gained.
Beblo and Kimdra
>
>Gregg and Jenn really are morphing
>into Romber. Should we
>call them Grenn or Grennifer?
> Clearly though, this is
>a case of a strategy
>revealed (that Final 4 option
>of Grenn, Coby and Janu)
>that will not succeed.
What I found interesting was that Gregg was talking to Coby and to the camera about him and Jenn and what "they" were going to do. But we never heard Jenn confirm this. Is Gregg taking a little too much for granted when it comes to Jenn? Jenn has also been shown spending alot of time with Katie and seems close to her. Does Jenn want to flip from the group with Katie to a group with Coby who obviously dislikes Katie. I always get suspicious when they show someone (Gregg) talking for a fellow tribemate. I want to hear Jenn state this decision for herself.
Well everyone is up much earlier than myselfNow THAT was an episode wasn't it and am particularly grateful since Koror has definitely been fleshed out some more. Before I either agree with my initial character editing or not, the usually symbolic fare was abundant
The Imagery
Again the rat shots and always at Koror. Many equate the rat to Katie but I go back to the first time we saw rats, yes ratS. I believe there is more than one, however perhaps only one rat is shown at this time to signify one of them. If I could make that guess, it would signify Gregg. Perhaps the other rats could be Jenn, his counterpart and perhaps Katie. This remains to be seen
Again, the lone crab at Ulong. Always I see one. In light, again of Stephenie's other editing surrounding her (catching the flint, pre tribe alliance discussions, now Angie's closing statement) she probably is that crab; scurrying around in every direction but moving, moving, moving.
Nice shot of the shark We still are trying to ascertain who that shark is and who ends up killing it. No snakes that I am aware of but while Koror KILLED the snakes, they usually preceded an event at Ulong. Considering what happened to them last night, no opportunity for Mark Burnett to throw a snake at them.
The rainbow Brings back memories of last season, however Ami was the one who noticed it and indicated about a good day. She ended up getting booted and her tribe done in. I'm not sure what Mark Burnett likes to say with rainbows but if last season was any indication, it isn't positive. Couple that with James and Angie's narration that it was still dark and stormy is a pure description of Ulong.
The Characters
At Ulong, my opinion still has not changed. Stephenie remains in the best position. Ironically, she goes to lengths to not be the leader but I always notice that the situation ends up unfolding where she appears to be the last voice listened to. Bobby Jon saddens me; he truly, as Caryn mentioned is an honorable man and has tried so hard but I just keep going back to his chopping that tree and he can't make it fall I see a very sympathetic reaction to his demise; clearly at Ulong there is a question of who is really aligned with who At this stage, I would suggest that we will have much like last night, votes in order to be saved, period. Ibe has risen a notch in the visibility but naturally because of what happened to him at the challenge. He demonstrated quite a bit of iron at Tribal Council for "calling out" the utter hypocrisy of his impending doom. James his dive in character has continued. It started over the last two weeks and has not changed. What could have been a negative spin on Ibe actually turned to one on James. When this happens, it is not good. Recall Angie's editing turn; all she did was compete hard yet the building on it against the nice tribe of Koror made it appear more negative than it actually was James' tired tirade of pointing fingers has gotten old as well as his "quitters" talk. Angie quit, Ibe quit and so forth. On the other side, Ibe came out editing wise came out better despite his mishaps at the challenge which was obviously evidenced by the majority of Koror giving him immunity.
In addition, Ulong is not built along alliances as much as we are led to think by commentary I don't believe members of Ulong have even come to a cohesive decision about that. We obviously know there will be fallout between Ibe and James setting up a potential showdown; we also consider that Stephenie will stay with James because he is the weakest member but let's not forget Ulong's creed as per Kim: "This tribe doesn't even know who they vote off until they have their pens at Tribal Council" (paraphrashing) Due to my beliefs in the power of editing and the outcome of how the four appear now, James appears to be done as the editing can't really go any further South for him Mark Burnett, with these types of characters have them blazing, James has increasingly been shown to be spiraling downward. If Ibe came out of last night looking bad, I would consider Ibe to go next; this did not happen At Ulong, James should be getting ready to leave
Well, Koror is full of mischief aren't they led by Gregg With the situation unfolding, I look at the "clues" surrounding those people. Gregg, may stir up trouble but he will not succeed ultimately in my opinion. And with this gem:
Jeff P. "Gregg is working against them at the reward challenge was too good to pass up. Gregg may very well have a modicum of success in his plan and more likely than not succeed with Tom especially with Tom's "Willard is keeping a stiff upper lip (regarding being voted out) as most of us will at one time or another." Interesting he says this to Gregg as well.
Last night I had very Rupert feelings with Tom I recall vividly the stellar edit of Rupert with the eventual behind the scenes hummings to get rid of him because he was such a threat setting up those vivid "betrayal" scenarios, etc. This appears to be happening with Tom as well. Caryn and Janu clearly invisible as their characters played no part in what MB was trying to lay out for us. Caryn is not even considered in the long story per Gregg and we were only advised by Gregg and Coby and Janu are close. Considering the fact that we know Coby is perfectly aware of just about everyone's position on this tribe with perhaps the exception of Gregg's plans for/with Janu; again, Coby's edit in my opinion still appears good to me with the exception of the big narrator status he is getting. My other big concern is what he said himself: I am very social, which could bite me in end, I get along with everyone, I don't care, being me; if it costs me so be it"
Yet I am reminded of how Jeff Probst made a point of noting this is a social game The question remains on this but I still have my hopes that Coby can pull a coup as I have had good feelings about his edit early one
Interestingly again Ian is shown again but barely a word about HIS strategies, HIS game playing, HIS alliances He "high fives" his father in crime, he had a a slight dip in character with his rejoicing at the expense of Ulong while Coby, the voice of social reason, wants to take it easy on them
I still like Ian up there but it is nagging at me in that other than Ian's great adventure I haven't seen much in terms of the game (aside from his confessional about observing Ulong) Again though I sense a certain scenario that it will become the mission to get rid of "obvious Tom" and somehow Ian manages to escape somehow. After all, He's a fast bugger
Katie is clearly in either one of the worst positions or one of the best positions. I am reminded of Clay and Twilla. A perfect partner to insure that the other person will get more votes to win. We already know from Coby and Caryn and Willard she is not high on their list. I can't imagine Janu doesn't feel this way as well. Gregg seems to be "tolerating" her. Katie will no doubt be in danger probably every episode that Koror goes to Tribal Council and like Clay and Twilla manage to escape. Women comedians as I already mentioned don't get the same applause as male comedians.
Coby: "If she gets further than me, I'll just puke, puke puke Unfortunately this is one of those comments that could go either way, Coby gets past her or visa versa. But if I recall, unfortunately, a lot of these comments from past shows never bodes well for the person who says it. One can only hope
Barbie and Ken Like suggested, a Rob and Amber revisit? Perhaps for a time but I think they fall short. Gregg's outline was a little clear and specific for my tastes. I would suggest that it wouldn't have been THAT clearly delineated if it were too succeed as planned
Caryn will no doubt come off back burner the next time Koror goes to Tribal Council. Due to the fact that she "appears" to be the main contender for boot status and we saw nothing of her suggests she doesn't go
We know Janu is to be featured next week as well but like some other "sick" stories, there is more than THAT episode to be the boot one. In other words, I note a trend that we see the decline start and THEN they get the boot This suggest that perhaps the BEGINNING of her end story commences next week; we shall see.
But in light of this, I would suggest that while there will be featuring of key issues at Koror, Ulong facing more storms I can, with only the four left, see the editing pointing towards James as that candidate at TC
There was so much more naturally but I will need to watch again obviously (you would suspect with the length of this post, I would be finished )
For the present time, I am still comfortable with the long term people that I felt about at the first episode; no real signficant changes yet for me.
This is my favorite thread, but I hate posting after you, VerucaSalt, because your posts are always so well thought out and thorough. There's little I can add, but I'll try.It almost seems too obvious, but could Tom be the shark? He was the first person we saw after the shark was shown. Vicious, determined, a seemingly unbeatable opponent. But a lot of us seem to agree he will be beaten. And Ian seems like the obvious choice. He's an animal lover, but he's also the one who killed the snakes (even though he felt bad about it). Perhaps that foreshadows his "slaying" of the shark, which he also is a source of guilt?
Coby intrigues me the most. We've seen too much of him for him to become a pre- or early-jury boot, unless his character dramatically changes in the next few episodes. No one (on his team, at least) has said anything bad about him. We haven't seen much of his interaction with Tom, although they are seated/standing next to each other on occasion. Coby, however, made a point to Gregg that he really wants to get Tom out.
Gregg's plan, obviously, is doomed to fail, and I think Janu will be its downfall. She's being set up for a mercy boot, probably right after all (except Steph, probably) the other Ulong are gone. As with Willard, Coby won't be able to do anything to stop it. He'll just have to go with the powerful alliance and vote out his closest ally.
But Coby's due for a position of power at least once in this game. It's necessary to complete the Coby/Angie story arc. Angie's tribe voted her out begrudgingly, whereas she once was the logical choice to go first for them. Coby still hasn't had his redemption from his "outcast" status. As I said before, it might be proving himself in an individual challenge leading to his early boot. Or perhaps he'll find himself in the strategic position to overthrow the dominant Koror alliance.
Like kingfish said, that was a great turn of a phrase VS The stage is indeed being set for KororUlong is dead in the water, if I may turn a phrase myself.
Steph is the only one who has had the consistent edit from the beginning. Until things begin to change she is going to be safe.
BJ, and his work ethic is a constant theme. You can't help but feel sorry for him as he tries so hard yet there is little success.
James sure has a lot bluster. At first it was entertaining, and now...not so much.
There just isn't much left of this tribe. A tribe that failed to play the game the way EPMB wants it to be playe, as a tribe first and then as individuals. They forgot this important rule.
No matter who makes it from this tribe they are going to serve as only pawns for what is going on at Koror as....
The stage is being set
This started with Gregg who took his first bold steps at playing the game with his own twist. He laid it out in such great detail all the way to the end. He talked of himself and Gregg and yet we still didn't hear anything from Jen who is still very much UTR.
Looks like there is more than one Rat at Koror.
Coby was brought in as Gregg's co-conspirator. Each saying they can bring in their own people to topple the team of Tom, Ian and Katie.
Caryn was not as prominant in this episode making way for the upcoming fleshing out of Janu's character.
Tom was shown as the leader in booting Willard. He spent time with everyone making sure they were all on board.
Not seen in any of this strategy talk was Ian who seems to be just really enjoyining himself. I think you may have something there VS, when you say this could be Ian's great adventure.
Except for her spat with Caryn and her poor showings in challanges Katie has yet to be seen. She is starting to get that edit of someone who makes it to the F3 or F2.
We are getting the build up to when this game really begins for Koror, which is after the merge.
I look for a build up each week until the merge for the battle that is going to happen at Koror.
DRONES
Was Coby voting to immunized Angie it in terms of their story line?Insider clips showed Coby voted for Steph, not Angie. Ian also voted for Steph.
Tom and Caryn voted Bobby Jon; Gregg voted Angie; Janu, Jenn and Katie voted Ibe.
The intriguing vote is Tom's. I think he didn't vote Stephenie simply because he knew she wasn't in danger. The 3 votes for Ibrehem were by 3 Korror women so it was probably not all based on strategy!!!
I thought the same thing when I read who voted for whom. Those 3 don't strike me as the most strategic of the bunch. REALLY suprised at Tom's vote. Could he just feel sorry for BJ being on such a crappy tribe?
I think Tom probably respects Bobby Jon, although we'll never know if that was the reason. Maybe he hoped making BJ immune would force one of the women out -- as has been noted, the Ulong women have the strength advantage over the Koror women.But it's kind of weird that none of them said anything when they voted except for Caryn and Coby.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
I agree with this sentiment. I think Tom is a straight forward, hard working guy and he voted to save the person he thought was most deserving to stay.I think the women voted Ibe because they saw him to be the most easily beaten, less of a threat.
maybe we need to start looking at these three (katie, jenn, janu) as an alliance.
I tend to agree. They (katie,jenn,janu) could have a hidden alliance. The fact that they all voted for the same player may indicate that there has been some more discussion between the three of them than we have been shown. I'm also willing to not get too concerned about their lack of airtime, given the dominance of Koror thus far.Also, a bizarre idea that came to me that combines VS's observations of the rat(s) and James' comment about Ian being a fast bugger....
Rats are known to leave a sinking ship, right? So suppose our hero is slain (Tom voted out).... perhaps the rat will be Ian, the fast bugger who manages to scurry over to the other alliance and last a little longer?
Best aspect of this last episode was that thanks to Jiffy's surprises, we had a chance to see both tribes thinking on the fly, and for the most part, on their own. Very interesting.
LibertyRising, you do just fine my dearTom the shark, very interesting. I'm just not sure yet and quite a lot depends on whether the shark gets killed or not doesn't it? If it does, then Tom does have potential in that area but if it is and is killed by Tom himself, again like Rupert, perhaps despite Tom's intentions of laying low, he was too visible and ultimately "killed himself"
memacur, Ian a scurrying rat eh? With the yet to be revealed dyamics in full force at Koror, we still have a way to go before we can know for sure but one never knows if Ian may have a rat quality with some people.
The voting for immunity was interesting and I see there have been opinions on it. While Janu, Katie and Jenn did vote for Ibe, I don't necessarily know if there is a hidden alliance. I tend to believe that there wasn't any opportunity to discuss the issue at hand. I would say psychologically speaking (which is obviously not an exact science) that Ibe's speech more than likely motivated their vote. Women are very verbally in tune and his speech certainly had me impressed. I would consider, more likely than not, it may have been a question more of their being impressed by his demeanor and candor and felt that it would be unfair (women are very big on that ) that he be penalized for ONE situation.
As far as the other votes, it was a bit surprising that Coby extended an olive branch to Stephenie (as opposed to Angie) and Tom extended it to Bobby (over Steph)in light of the first episode . The reasons (as already stated by people) may be very simple. Caryn was extremely complimentary of Bobby and it would suggest that Bobby made a huge impression during the short time they were all together. I agree that Tom probably gave Bobby a nod of respect. What we need to do is keep this information (much like the pick em that we did) on the backburner to see what happens when they are together at merge (if there are any Ulongs left that is )
Insofar as lack of airtime, agreed that lack is mainly because Koror is successful. HOWEVER, the fact that Caryn (who has been featured at Koror) was completely invisible does indicate to me that Koror is safe this week. Caryn was highlighted earlier to set up a scenario that will be occurring (along with Katie) and Caryn was MAINLY the one to look bad. This last episode KATIE's role is being established and not in a positive way so we now have two stories that have been shown to us yet JANU is the one featured (and clearly not seen at all by us) This signifies to me that the stage is set but the play hasn't started
Tom as the shark... Very interesting idea. Will have to keep that one in mind. However, the comment that struck me was their banter about their relationship at tribal council. A "Father/Son" thing, with Ian impishly piping up with "I'm the father." I mentioned a couple weeks back that theirs was a classic mentor/apprentice relationship. The thing with those kind of relationships, is that it seems inevitable that the mentor will one day be overshadowed by his apprentice. Add that in with Tom's quote about how 'almost all of us' will eventually have to go, and how they should accept this, and I clearly see a set up for Tom eventually stepping aside - whether by his choice or circumstances - for Ian to take over. Remember he said he wanted to be known as the father figure. A father's greatest wish is to see their children succeed.
This signifies to me that the stage is set but the play hasn't startedNicely put, VS! Add in the reveal of Gregg's counter-alliance plot (which includes the about-to-be-featured Janu), and this is a perfect description of where we are with Koror. The pieces are in place, now we wait to see what happens...
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VS, great job as always. Each episode I think I pull out maybe five good nuggets of info, you, of course, nail them, better, plus provide another dozen that I missed.I completely agree that nothing that is going on at Koror right now indicates anything but the continued Ulonging of the other tribe for the next episode or even two. James progressively negative edit appears to be a death knell.
Only BJ and Stephanie appear to have any chance of advancing.
Poor BJ, he tries, he tries, he fails, and he fails. He does, however, have an editing relationship with Tom; his voiced respect for Tom, and Tom’s returned respect in voting for him in immunity. This could be inferred as the end of his story, or the beginning of a story arc that keeps him around along enough to once again face Tom at a later date. I still can’t believe this is the same guy from the pre-show interviews.
Stephanie, IMHO, is still getting a great, consistent edit. I don’t know how she could win considering her current situation, but purely based on editing, she would have to be considered a favorite. Her early alliance with Tom and others could be significant, or not. Her battles with Jenn lead me to believe that she makes the merge and she will potentially face off against Jenn. Irony leads me to believe this is when she goes, but Jenn’s edit is so UTR, that Stephanie could prevail.
MB finally unveiled some strategy from Koror. Unfortunately, as VS stated earlier, the Greg/Coby pact was laid out so well, it just can’t happen. While I have often question the theory “Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed”, I do believe that “Alliances Revealed Often Do Not Succeed” Additionally I am still hung up on the Jeff/Kim romance at Ulong. For something that never really panned out, they spent a lot of film discussing the potential negative impact. My gut tells me that it doesn’t work out for Gregg/Jen either. Janu could quit, or Coby could just go against his best interest, and side with Tom/Ian/Katie. Stephanie could also be a factor after the merge, which could change everything.
The Alliance also reveals the Caryn goes next at Koror, when the situation arises. Again, this may be a little too obvious. Katie is the obvious foe, but Janu’s future weakness, combined with no real editing insinuates the initiation of a short story line. I tend to agree that Caryn and Katie are both safe in the short term. Also Gregg’s quote that “Janu is key” infers that the whole strategy could blow up before it has a chance to unfold.
I agree VS, Coby is the only one on Koror receiving any strategy edit at all. After JP’s early quote, “this is a social game” and Coby’s later response, “I am very social”, I thought, this was a slam-dunk winner’s quote. Of course he continued with, “which could bite me in end, I get along with everyone, I don't care, being me; if it costs me so be it". This insinuates more of a final four or final five edit than a winner, however, one quote does not a season make.
I completely agree that Katie is the most obvious as a final two partner. She has been given a slight negative edit, which should grow as the season progresses.
Their have some excellent posts on the Tom/Ian relationship, and I don’t have anything to add. Tom is not getting a winners edit, he is being editing as too much of a target, and should be voted off sometime in the future. Ian’s edit is more interesting. He has a rock star edit, but with absolutely no strategy. VS could be correct; this could be “Ian’s great adventure”. If Ian’s edit does not begin to explore strategy, he may not be the obvious winner we foresee.
However, I still believe that MB integrates the Nash Equilibrium when editing the show. In a multi-leader tribe (Coby, Gregg, Tom and possibly Katie and Caryn), followers succeed. Ian’s edit seems to be progressing as a second fiddle to Tom and possibly Katie. As VS stated “I sense a certain scenario that it will become the mission to get rid of "obvious Tom" and somehow Ian manages to escape somehow.” I agree. It is possible that Ian could win without ever developing a Machiavellian strategy if he takes the followers role. Ethan and Tina both won in a similar role. However, this also means that Janu and Jen could be in play. Both are followers. I would be stunned if either one won, but, hey, Vecepia won from a M-Tribe. It could happen, although I have no idea how.
Her battles with Jenn lead me to believe that she makes the merge and she will potentially face off against Jenn. Irony leads me to believe this is when she goes, but Jenn’s edit is so UTR, that Stephanie could prevail.Agreed. If EPMB is to complete a nice, neat storyline with Jenn and Steph, then the two women must come together to compete at some later point in the game. The way Jenn's edit starts shaping up just before that point will tell us whether Jenn is finally going to overcome Steph in some head-to-head situation, or whether Steph will finally lose to Jenn in an all-important individual situation despite having dominated Jenn in all the team match-ups. If spoilers are to be believed and Steph is earlier to the jury than Jenn, I would say let's look out for Jenn's editing to show an increasing confidence and strength on her part, preparing us for what would be a surprise upset of Steph based on the outcomes of their past meetings.
I agree with you about Ian. He's getting the "NiceGuy" edit where fortune seems to smile on him without him needing to expend any effort to bring it his way. Of course, fortune smiles on him because he's capable and nice; people respond favourably to niceness and capability, and people responding favourably is all "fortune" is. It feels strongly like an Ethan edit to me at the moment, rather than a Tina edit; my prevailing sense of Tina is that she was much more manipulative than I believe Ian is capable of.
I think Steph's continued theme is "I'm not used to losing this much", "I can't handle losing". To this effect, this could mean that either she wins the game, or she goes on an immunity run when the game becomes individual before her arc is finally over and she gets voted out. Either way, I think she'll get her winning satisfaction sometime, if it's only temporary.As far as her and Jenn go, there is some irony, as Steph has bested her in 2 individual challenges. Therefore, Steph is not used to "losing" to her, so if Jenn was instrumental in ousting Steph it would be a redemption of HER previous failures against Steph. Combine that with Tom's second day "alliance" with Steph, and the non-editing spoilers that suggest a) Steph outlasts at least 2 Korors after the merge, and b) Katie and Jenn do NOT get along with her after the merge, I can see the following scenario: Tom tries to bring her into the fold when they merge with a decimated Ulong (possibly just her)... she either wins immunity or joins with the dominant alliance for an episode or two, thus making her feel like a winner for the first time. Then, when she begins to get confident in her place in the tribe, Jenn (and possibly Katie) go behind Tom's back or overrule him to vote her out, thus giving Jenn redemption in their personal struggle, and adding further irony to Steph's situation by taking her out just when she feels she's become safe and a winner. That seems to make sense, given her edit so far.
As far as Ian goes, I see the "Ethan" edit to Tom's "Lex", but at the same time, I don't think it's fair to say he's been edited as a follower, as both Tom and Katie have been shown on camera calling him a leader. It's hard to say where the editing puts him.
Tom is not getting a winners edit, he is being editing as too much of a target, and should be voted off sometime in the future.I disagree. Not all editing interpretations can be based on past Survivors, because each game is different. Usually a character like Tom would probably just miss getting to the final two, but...
Tom is being pointed out as a target by people who at this point have no power, and probably never will. This game is so one-sided I have a feeling that a cigar is just a cigar this time. One tribe entirely self-destructs due to lack of leadership and organization, while the other tribe goes all the way and its most respected member wins. What little counterplotting there is will have no effect in stopping the juggernaut.
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This weekend I sat and rewatched all the eps. I mainly was watching for things from the Koror members. We can see alot of the early alliances did start from the first ep. While Tom is talking to Steph about an alliance with Ian, they show Ian and Katie working and laughing together. And we know Tom, Ian and Katie are close now. Then they show Gregg, Coby and Caryn discussing to boot Jonathon. And then Coby picks Caryn over Angie in the pick'em game. And now Coby and Gregg are conspiring about an alliance. And you can see in every ep how close Gregg and Jenn are even when it isn't mentioned yet.But it was last week's ep that really had me rewatching part of the show over and over again. Does Tom know about Gregg and Coby's plan? They showed Gregg and Coby talking. Then Coby is in the trees talking to the camera about it. Immediately after the shot of Coby they show Tom walking away from the trees down to Gregg. Tom looks at Gregg and asks if they are OK and still together on the plan. Gregg says yes, but Tom doesn't really look like he entirely believes Gregg. Did Tom overhear Coby?
I just gotta say that was a well turned phrase VS, (paraphrased, that for Koror the stage is set and the play is yet to begin), and a very appropriate way to view the remainder of the season. As we all have seen in the past, ACT II is usually post-merge dynamics dominated by the larger pre-merge team who often coasts for a few episodes while they pick off the other tribe and work on end game strategies, or for some, just how to get rid of those they dislike.The implication is that now MB has an unusual editing luxury of extra time to devote to Koror tribal and character stories. He has planted the seeds of possible alliances, strategies, outcomes, and misdirections and now will get to develop Act II before ACT 1 is really over. He may have three(?) weeks till the merge in which he will have to deal with the RC, IC, and Boots, but the boots are starting to be perfunctory, and it looks like he is developing a lively set of Koror plots.
So what does this mean? Maybe not much, just that we might take the next two/three weeks as more of a unit, a mini-play, and try to analyze the story based on the information from this period. I know that anyone worth his/her edit analysis SALT (hows that for a plug?) is looking at the long term implications as well as short term snapshots, but it seems to me that this particular period may be worthy of special attention. So we will see.
The stories for the next few episodes seems to be, just relying on the editing analyses in this forum, that Koror as a tribe is headed for doom and destruction, a dismal failure attributed by MB (via his story telling) to James's failure of leadership (to me, his edit has been screaming this, from his statements about the team democracy to his blaming IB last week) as well as to a unfortunate luck of the draw on the second day. They didn't get either Tom or Ian, and really who, on the second day, would have guessed that either of these two could be so valuable?
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-05 AT 11:55 AM (EST)Excellent observations everyone!! I watched the episode again with these thoughts in mind; it is amazing how one can view the show a second time with different perspectives.
I still at this moment like the long term results for Stephenie, Coby, Ian and Tom Not too far behind would appear to Gregg, Katie and Jenn Those whose edit appears troublesome and perhaps designed that way would be Caryn, Bobby Jon and now Janu I'm confused on Ibe's edit since it is peaking and VERY quickly almost as if they are rushing it. I almost felt this way somewhat about Gregg's plan completely layed out to us. James edit has already dwindled so I don't expect much from him any longer
I hope more of Koror is evolving to further the dynamics we see taking place. I would expect with Willard leaving and Janu featured feeling hopeless the editors will concentrate some more on them. IF we see a heavy portion of the show on Koror and it isn't positive (especially if they win BOTH challenges) this *could* be an indicator they visit Tribal Council next week.
I'm going to keep a close eye out for this shark again and we know the following episode involves same. Since the shark has been heavily featured, whoever the force is surrounding the shark may be key here. We *dabbled* that it may be Tom and dependent upon the outcome could symbolize his outcome.
What I found interesting again in last week's show was what I believed to be very heavy manipulation with regard to Koror and their people. You may recall Coby's suggestion about being nice then Ian appearing to be insensitive with a shot of Caryn looking somewhat disapproving. In looking at those scenes, it appeared to be heavily edited which infers that (for whatever reason at this time) Ian was "made" to look somewhat negative. Now we have been waiting for some change in his editing. I'm still concerned by the lack of strategy talk from Ian as by now, if he were to be at the end, there would be more there. This "dip" if you will is definitely meaningful; for what reason is still not sure.
I also went back to look at Jeff's comments and this is what he said about Ian
JP: Ian is 6'8. It's the tallest Survivor cast we've ever had. Ian in terms of putting him on the show, he was on when he walked in the door in my mind. A super likeable guy. Exudes genuine-ness he's happy to be alive, wants to play and have fun. Really a likeable guy, humble, a kid. If he lasts long enough he'll probably make mistakes because of judgment. Just like I was talking about with Caryn. When I look at young people I'm thinking: Are they conf. enough to make it. They don't have the life experience. You see it with Eliza, Jenna, go down the list of young people....
We do know that sometimes his comments should be taken with a grain of salt; since I am concerned about his edit in terms of playing the game I will remind myself that this interview could pose a clue to a potential problem for Ian
Coby of course was made to look in a high light with his sensitivity and again, while I am pleased by his characterization and how it may progress, his words at Tribal Council concern me.
I will also be keeping a close eye on Tom since he is the person that the Koror's strategizing (the little we have so far) is built around him. Caryn, Gregg, Coby, Willard all have mentioned him (with Ian as a second) in terms of power to take down or to be negative about. Like Ian, I am curious to hear from Tom himself. He expresses at TC his goal was to sit back but was essentially forced to step up. I want to hear more privately from him.
BR I agree with your thoughts on Tom. I don't necessarily believe the heavy editing he is getting is necessarily horrific. I had mentioned it is essentially a crapshoot dependent upon one of two things. To repeat myself (sorry ) Mark Burnett sometimes takes what HE LEARNS from a prior season and changes. When Vecepia's edit caused a chorus of negativity from viewers, his next season had Brian almost narrating his strategy. Last season there were quite a few comments about Chris's edit as the show progressed. I read quite a few comments that Chris's behavior and comments were not to their liking. Could Mark Burnett be learning another lesson and literally giving us a hero with all the trimmings? Perhaps. Then again, Tom is also a classic editing example of the person that the audience loves who (when they meet their end) caused a ruckus of emotion and hopes for "payback"
Since MB does indeed choose to surprise us with his character portrayals, it is not an exact science. This is where I try to look closer at the person, what they are saying and what people are saying about them including symbolism surrounding them.
We still need to wait a bit to see more from Koror; I suspect with the dwindling amounts of Ulong, we will be guaranteed this very soon.
Edited to add Jeff's interview which I finally located
Interesting!!
Re: EP 5, Gregg's analysis caught my attention. It was something like: JENN AND I ARE PERCEIVED AS JUST THE CUTE COUPLE. I THINK WE'RE THINKING A HELL-OF-A-LOT MORE THAN THEM. Maybe this was editors' attempt to have viewers believe that Tom and Ian are not strategizing.
To repeat myself
>(sorry ) Mark Burnett sometimes
>takes what HE LEARNS from
>a prior season and changes.
One thing that strikes me in terms of MB's motivation for editing is that he has never had the fan-favorite/hero win. Ethan would be the closest, but many Africa-fans were rooting for Lex. He can only tell the story he is given with the winner that he does not determine. MB, in my opinion, would love to give America a "Rupert win" in the actual game. MB can't manipulate the winner, so he's not been able to edit a hero and then have him/her actually win it...until now.I believe that Tom's fulfilling that role. He will be edited as America's favorite: a combination of Lex (edited with Gregg and Ian as his Tom/Ethan) and Rupert (edited as the fearless leader of the dominating tribe). We also have so much of the story surrounding his relationship with the others; even Stephanie and BJ's edits have Tom written in them. (Will Steph be reunited with Tom? Will BJ beat Tom?...) He has the Rupert-esque story of the internal threats being more severe than those from the opposing tribe. Gregg and Coby (and eventually Katie, I guess) will be "playing roles" similar to Burton/Jon -- only this time, Rupert finds out in time...I mean...Tom finds out in time.
MB is running out of seasons for a hero-wins edit. If Tom is the winner, MB will shove it down our throats. That, I believe, is what we're getting.
I was ony able to watch the second half of this episode and it was a real yawner.Ulong had two players in James Ibe who are barely even trying. James messing with his skirt while Koror worked hard to make an extra few knots. Ibe was trying to look like he was doing something by standing in the water.
I'm only going to give just perfunctory attention to Ulong on from here on out. The impact of who/whom ever manages to make it to merge is going to be merely as a pawn for one of the alliances of Koror. If Ibe, I highly doubt he even makes it or BJ make it to merge they won't even have an impact on the game as they would be voted out immediately due to the "potential" for one of them to go on an immunity run. Steph would be used as a pawn, and could become very valuable.
Koror, for what I saw of them and I only saw the second half of the show, was barely visable. The best part were the highlights for Ep7, where the shark is finally caught. Ladies and Gentlemen, there had been a lot of build up to this event so we need to pay close attention to how this is edited. The second thing to watch closely is if Tom or Ian happen to pick up some trouble with Gregg and Jenn.
Rember, that there is some concern in how Ian is being edited. VS, began to notice a couple of eps ago, and I agree that Ian is not necessarily getting a winners edit. Meanwhile we saw Tom arrange and then confirm Willards boot. Coby is playing the game as well, just behind the scenes. Caryn is still only good for her negative comments. Janu is beginning to struggle and is having to be carried by her tribe. Katie is Katie and Jen is as invisible as Amber was in Africa. Gregg jumped out of the shadows rather abruptly and was not heard from last ep.
Tom, and Cody are both safe for a while. Behind them, I'd put these people in this order: Ian, Gregg, Katie, Jen, Caryn, Janu.
Merge or no merge Ibe, BJ and Steph are not long for this game. I do believe that Steph has the best chance of going the farthest of those 3.DRONES
Well one thing that I noticed was how Katie was perceived by members of her tribe when she was shown making knotted necklaces for everyone....Koror was saying to themselves, look the only thing she contributes to our surviving are these knotted necklaces, and that's worthless....and then at the IC, it was Katie who was knoting away at the Ulong trunk, which led to their winning the challenge....a positive spin for Katie, surviving!
FP. This becomes really ironic to me when you look at what happened to James the Ulong knot expert after he tied his "imposssible" navy knot.This may be the beginning of a change in editing for Katie leading to her lasting longer than the way she was being protrayed earlier.RedBeard
Well I think she will last but not because of a positive edit...it will stay negative imhoThe most interesting comment about Katie was in Caryn's confessional...she said (paraphrasing)
"Katie entertains us with jokes, etc.(after the conf. they imm. went to her sad sad puppet show) She needs to work, work harder. What is her role in this tribe? "
Her role is the perfect F2 partner...imo
My only other comment about the show was the look on Coby's face when he learned Angie was gone...it was weird sort of "oh thank god" but "darn, I could have used her" look all at the same time..he is def. being shown as playing the strategic part of this game the most by Burnett..
or emydi, perhaps Katie is a great pupper masterBelieve it or not, I didn't have much to contribute after this episode. The editing is fairly consistent in terms of the characters with a slight shift here and there
If anything, we now know the answer to the question posed before this show with reference to Tom. We discussed the animal imagery and whether or not Tom kills the shark could infer what happens to him. We know he is the center of this victory which helps his standing.
Before Koror, I turn to Ulong (poor poor Ulong ) There is absolutely no reason for me to believe in terms of editing that Stephenie and Bobby Jon won’t be the two remaining Ulongs. Mark Burnett has invested way too much in both of them for Ibe to outlast either.
Recall Ibe’s non existent editing with a sudden soaring over the last two episodes. Those types of editing shakeup (if you will) are suspicious and usually mean they are literally getting their “15 minutes of fame” We saw instances such as this with previous survivor contestants and they suddenly emerged only to be booted shortly thereafter. What about Janu though you ask? The difference is subtle but there IS a difference and the main one is that Janu is PART of someone else’s strategy. Janu’s emergence may solely be indicative of Gregg’s story whereas Ibe does not have ties to anyone else’s strategy.
Stephenie’s arc is surrounded by editing that reflects her to be Ulong’s sole member:
The crab always features Stephenie
Stephenie the only one of Ulong engaged in pre tribe alliance discussions
Kim to Stephenie “Kick all the guys off”
Angie to Stephenie “Rock the ladies”
Jeff throwing the flintin the earlier challenge; James reaching for same and it going straight to Stephenie
Stephenie’s confessionals constantly discuss losing and her disgust about it whereas Bobby’s is more reflective aka “what will be will be”
The discussion of Steph/BJ about going to the end together
And of course Steph: “I just want to win one immunity" challenge”From an editing standpoint it would appear that Ibe would be the next to go and thereafter BJ and Stephenie.
I still believe thatStephenie’s role will play a part in the Koror dynamics. However, unlike Chris, I have doubts that she can infiltrate the Koror tribe to the extent that Chris did and the biggest reason is how much she is shown to be a threat physically.
I read again Jeff’s commentary about the contestants:
Jeff about Stephenie:”......if she can get to individual part of game, she ‘s tough. There’s a lot of guys in this game who would be afraid to go up against her in a challenge.”
THAT no doubt will cause a problem for Stephenie on the surface. However, I do believe that she could help upset a apple cart or two and with MB’s investment in her, I don’t think she will be the first one going when she meets up with Koror though technically she should be considering she will be the only Ulong left.
Koror Characters
Ian’s Great Adventure As DRONES indicated, I expressed concern over Ian’s edit. I had liked him greatly for a potential winner but indicated that if we don’t see some sense of game playing from him shortly, Ian’s stay on the island is more/less being shown to us as his adventure. These storylines can go quite far but with absolutely no showing of strategy, alliances, vulnerability, suspicion, it doesn’t bode well ultimately.
We again saw it last episode. He is having a wonderful time, they have full stomachs and it is paradise. Yet, why have we not heard about his thoughts on his own status, his relationships, his thoughts on threats, etc. It is has essentially been thrown in our faces that he is a sidekick having fun. I had quoted earlier what Jeff had said about Ian ultimately may make a mistake in judgement. It appears that Ian may be able to kill a couple of snakes but what about the shark or a rat perhaps?
Tom the shark hunter. I won’t go into the symbolism again but his killing the shark bodes well for Tom. Again, Tom has a Rupertesque edit but the difference may be trust and self esteem. Rupert was an every day man who was edited as a hero, Tom is a hero being edited as everybody’s man. Subtle difference but it is there. We KNOW Tom will discuss the relationship of Gregg and Jen; thereby setting up a situation where Tom is wary of his surroundings and doesn’t blindly trust; we also saw a hint of subtle arrogance, if you will, with reference to his discussion about Willard and last week’s talk with Janu. Mind you, this may not appear arrogant to everyone but there was a “shift” with him that I did see reaction from posters. In actuality this is a positive turn on Tom’s edit. Tom was in danger of being boxed into a one dimensional corner as Ian continues to be, sleight of hand in editing bodes well especially in comparison to Ian since we discussed that Ian and Tom sat the best at Koror.
Tom will no doubt be a thorn to some people’s sides. Again, Tom is always the main focus of threatening power though Ian is stated as well but Ian always sounds like an afterthought. Caryn, Gregg and Willard have all mentioned Tom.
Jeff about Tom in his pre show discussions: “If he does last for awhile he’s the kind of guy who could win it, because people are going to look at him and say: “You know what, why not him”
Katiehas continued in the talk amongst some Survivors. The issue of Caryn and Katie has not been dropped and Mark Burnett is making sure of it. There seems to be too much emphasis on that relationship for it not to pay off in some fashion. Again, however, Caryn was not even important enough to be discussed by Gregg yet Katie is safely insulated by two men who are carrying her tribe. In addition, we have yet to hear a negative word about Katie from Jenn who is attached to Gregg. In terms of numbers, Caryn is on the short end of the stick and will probably lose this battle because numbers DO matter. Oh the irony of Caryn commenting on Katie’s braiding only to show the rope knotting at the immunity challenge. Perhaps Katie is not as invaluable
I found Katie’s comment about Janu being more of a drama queen than her was interesting. I suspected from the contestant descriptions that Janu may be too much drama and I sat watching thinking it appeared I was wrong. Throw a way comment perhaps but there may be some drama coming our way and that may be signal the end of Janu. There is only so much show girl she can discard
Jenn sits quietly again in the background. Again we only hear her reiterate a challenge description. Jenn may do pretty well since we have seen editing like hers before. Darrah was all but non existent in her alliance or so we thought but she managed to get far ahead in the food chain even surpassing her partners. In light of the fact that Gregg is doing the talking for the both of them and we already discussed that Gregg’s plan was too carefully laid out to us to succeed in its entirety, it is suggestive then that Jenn may squeak through and her partner may get tossed before she does but then, like Darrah go when it is her time. I don’t foresee much else happening in that regard but characters like Jenn(without any showing of their own plotting and scheming) can do quite well by sheer virtue of all the other drama going on around them. Plus there is a trend in male/female pairings where the woman usually outlasts the man (Rob/Amber, Sandra/Rupert, Roger/Elisabeth, Tina/Colby, Gregg/Colleen) Obviously, the relationships are different but there is a trend that I have noticed.
Gregg as we established is to play a big part in the Koror dynamics and most likely will fail in his plan. Since Janu’s story is being established that she is sickly, Gregg will no doubt let “us” know his alternatives which is probably where Caryn will come in.
Coby. I do love Coby’s character and when I watched him up until last show I had, as you know, high hopes for him. The last shown sunk my optimism. There is too much of Coby for our entertainment. This has always been a danger sign to me. Examples of this are Greg, Jeff Varner, Rob Mariano (S4) and so forth. They are the ones who we are laughing with, enjoying their enjoyment over their plans. They are wonderful people to focus on because they truly dive right into the game they are playing. Coby had originally made it known he could hurt himself and he may do so. Coby is friends with everyone but is not part of anything strong and Coby is not a weak player, either mentally or physically. These players are what I call the “not so subtle strategists” They are usually the players that are made obvious to us they are going to dive right in with strategy and challenges and if it is obvious to us, it certainly is obvious to everyone else.
Things to watch for will be Ian continuing on his great adventure, more shifts in Tom’s editing in terms of playing the game, Caryn’s role in her tribe, Gregg’s plan bearing out, Stephenie’s role in possibly unseating some Koror members, Janu’s illness.
Katie, is being given a very interesting edit. She is playing the game, but it is not being shown in a positive light. We've seen her tift with Caryn, which is far from over, and now her comments about Janu the drama queen. Up until the last episode she was being shown as pretty much worthless in challanges. This ep, if not for her tying the knots, Koror is at TC. With that edit we now see her as a threat.Along the same lines as Katie, we are seeing Coby being given a mostly negative edit. We are seeing his thoughts, but they are without action. He seems content to follow along with Gregg's plan but we don't know his long term, or short term plan is for that matter. We hear his negative comments about Katie's performance in challanges. When ever he isn't competing in a challange he generally does this as well. He himself has performed well in challenges. We have yet to hear any of his tribemates thoughts on him, even those who would appear to be in his alliance.
Janu, as VS pointed out was seen as being ill and really struggling. Whenever we see a player suffering the way Janu is we are not sad to see them go.
Caryn is still being given the most negative edit of anybody. Complaining all the time with snarky comments and a bad attitude, even though she is on the winningest tribe of all time.
Tom's edit has shifted to that of a player. He sees what's going on around him. He did an excellent job of trying to lift Janu's spirits. He's sees what could be going on with Gregg and Jenn.
Like you said VS, it's still Ian's great adventure thus far.
Jenn is still being hidden ala Amber. She is being protected by Gregg. I'm gladd you pointed out what had happened to some of the other male female partnerships or whatever they are.
Gregg's plan has you to be put into to play, and that will tell his tale. His story lies in if his plan succeeds or fails. I think we know how it will turn out though, don't we
Ibe is going next. He really isn't worth much effort at this point, and that is just as well because he really doesn't give much effort.
BJ is fighting the good fight.
Steph will finally win an immunity, but it will be for herself as she is the last member of her tribe. She is being given an edit as someone who will not be the first one sent home post merge.
Look for Tom, Katie, and Coby as long term. Like VS said we should pay close attention to Ian's edit as it will tell his story if he stays in this game to the end. Caryn and Janu are being given early post merge boot edits. Gregg and Jenn are somewhere in the middle as is Steph.
DRONES
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-05 AT 08:59 PM (EST)I thought I would throw this out, if only because it is a pretty slow week editing wise, but there have been a few quotes over the last few weeks that suggests that Janu, specifically, and the Koror women in general, may have some potential, despite, what must be considered, to this date, fairly ho-hum edits. I am really reaching here, so feel free to tear this to pieces.
MB always tosses out some interesting quotes that come to fruition in either an actual or ironical nature. This week, three caught my eye. The first was during Tom’s comforting of Janu. He said, and I paraphrase, “You are going to make the Jury and it is possible that you will be in the final two and we will be voting for or against you”. This could easily set up for a future betrayal, which is probably more appropriate, but MB edits for the general viewer, not the spoilers, and at this time does the general viewer actually think Janu has a chance at all? Tom could easily stab her in the back, but would anyone really be surprised? This combined with Greg’s quote, “Janu is the key”, gives her two potentially, “Winning Quotes”. Arguably, no other player has any “Winning Quotes” nearly as obvious. Additionally, once the merge happens (or the remaining members of Ulong are absorbed into Korer) is there any reason to kick Janu off. She is no threat in challenges and she has only been portrayed as a strategic player in terms of Greg. I know, more reason she should go. But initially JP said. “Here’s the thing that impressed me about her (Janu): She graduated college after 20 years. That is impressive to me. She didn’t quit. It took forever, but she did it.”
The second was Stephanie’s Pringles trivia comment regarding past winners. This could obviously play out either way but MB tends to use a sense of ironic drama and when someone says something that just doesn’t make long-term sense in terms of the current editing, it tends to pay off more than not. So far the obvious potential winners, as edited towards the general public, as narrators, have been, Tom, Ian, and Coby. Once again, would anyone really be surprise if one of those three won. This year, a women winner, would be fairly surprising. But how could a woman win? Katie is getting a pretty decent final two edit, but does anyone believe that she could beat Tom or Ian (or Coby or Greg for that matter). If a woman is to win she must go to the final two against another woman. Stephanie also remains in play, but I am not sure how this could play out.
Finally Katie’s “drama queen” quote could also set up a potential future clash with Janu. This, combined, with the general women’s alliance scenario’s that has subtly played out over the last few episodes, gives me cause. Kim’s quote to Stephanie regarding a women’s alliance, combined with the three Koror women voting together for Ib. This, of course, is a pretty serious reach.
Finally, in Koror, all four men have been revealed as potential leaders. In this situation, the women, as followers, should have a better chance to win.
Once again there is more editing to indicate that this will not happen than it will. I think the board has made some great points that MB learns from each season, and will change the editing each year based on the current season’s winner and the public’s reaction to the previous winner. This year could easily be just a straight forward edit, with Tom versus Katie facing of in the final two, and a Tom win, but I though I would throw out something different as I think the next two episodes will pretty much go as spoiled.
It seems to me that BJ has been given the edit of someone trying to prove that he's a Man's Man. (Tarzan anyone?)BJ seems to see Tom as his main competition for the title Man's Man.
I think when Tom get's his shark this week, the bar will have been set so high that BJ won't be able to compete anymore with Tom.
This will be the end of BJ's story arc, and we will see him voted out at Ulongs TC as the remainder of his tribe turns on him.
WLR, I enjoy hearing from you; please continue to do so as I always have said that other observations help me since sometimes I get "colored" by those I tend to like and/or dislike. Objectivity sometimes gets tossed out the window despite good intentionsI did find Tom's discussion with Janu interesting as well. I, on the other hand took it more in terms of Tom's shift in editing. He has been portrayed very wonderful with no real game playing that struck me forcefully which concerned me. I found his conversation with Janu more help for me in terms of his editing rather than what he SAID to her. This conversation actually made me more optimistic in Tom's longevity as this conversation revealed to me his game playing; very smooth (actually reminded me a bit of Brian )
Also, Janu's reaction to Tom's discussion was important to me in establishing her thoughts on Tom as a player which was noticeably absent to me. All we saw and heard regarding Tom were negative comments by Caryn (which actually reflected more about Caryn than Tom) and commentary from Gregg regarding his plan (which reflects more about Gregg and what happens to him than Tom actually)
In essence, I found that exchange very interesting as you did but more in terms of Tom being fleshed out as opposed to what actually was said. But I would suggest if the words DID have some meaning perhaps Janu being on the jury has something for us to enjoy with regard to her vote on the final two.
Yes, I did note the trivia questions I agree there may be something to that as well. We've often discussed remarks made for a reason of just poof pieces and this is one of them. Placed on purpose to "clue" us in on a woman prevailing or simply a comment to throw out in absence of anything other than fun.
mavsfan, very intriguing idea regarding the fish. I have found Bobby's story a little different with regard to Tom in that there is not so much a competition of these men but that they are the same type of man if but for two things. Bobby is on the tribe that couldn't and Tom is on the tribe that can. Also, Bobby 's edit almost makes me feel that Mark Burnett is showing Bobby as the man he WILL be in Tom.
I recall Bobby stating: "Tom is a man among men" (Could be an interesting winner indication?) More importantly I see the parallels of the two and Bobby's story almost being that of aspiring to be like Tom. Alas, Bobby gets the small fish and so forth. I suppose I find too much humility about Bobby to assume his attempting to be the man among men but rather he aspires to be like that kind of man.
This will be a great episode to watch as I do feel that the editing shifts we have begun to see at Koror are going to develop more. I won't go into again what we should be looking for as it is already stated
I don't think Bobby Jon's edit is a "next bootee" edit at all. Yeah, they have all 3 had TV time spikes, but there aren't enough Ulongs left to avoid that. If anybody left on Ulong is getting a "next bootee" edit, it looks like Ibrehem more than the other 2. He's been a nothing-happening kind of guy for the most part, and he's getting a nothing-happening kind of edit. He seems like a nice guy, but he's as dull as a bad sermon in church, and Marko just hasn't got a lot to work with in editing him. If Ulong takes the expected IC loss, I'm sure he's the one to go.
Perhaps there is something else the editing experts here can look at to see if there might be some meaning in it.On the CBS site, next to each players bio are some short videos of confessionals and statements the players have made. Not all of them, just very particular ones.
I think it's the middle one <http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor10/survivors/bio/bobby_jon.shtml> titled "All by myself" that BJ talks about how afraid he is of sharks.
In this one <http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor10/survivors/bio/stephanie.shtml> Stephanie makes a remark about keeping the men around because they are great with the fire.
Could it be possible they showed us Stephanies "fire" remark as a prelude to the fire building challenge presumably next week?
Could it also be possible that the remarks about BJ being afraid of sharks could have another meaning since he has not been around any sharks? Maybe the same week a shark is killed, he is booted?
Since certain players such as Tom and Ian have only their introductory videos on their page, while some others have three or more, could the presence of particular clips be a clue to future events, or am I just taking up space here?
This wasn't a direct reply to this, but I feel that a possible vote in the Immunity would be that Steph votes for
Bobby Jon because He is the strongest she already tried this earlier plus She talks to Ibe about this and He tells Her that He'll vote this way, Ibe thinks that Him and Bobby Jon are vote out Steph because of their alliance and then Bobby Jon votes for Ibe because of His and Steph's alliance. Then there is a three way tie and they have to break the tie. and then thay vote out Ibe.
As hard as I try to keep my observations quick and concise, ultimately I am like a bad novel but as forehead said, this thread would not truly be this thread if my posts were not excruciatingly long and I appreciate those who bear with me with my meandering. Naturally I hope that what everyone else saw is posted.Special to emydi and FP ; you are both, as always very sweet and yes, applejack, taken completely as a compliment
The animal imagery has definitely been prevalent this season. We still have lots of shots of water life, rats and snakes. You will note that the lone crab is gone.
To give Ulong a little nod before we get to the Koror
Bobby Jon Again, I truly embraced his character and feel he is being given a special edit. As I mentioned in my last post, I believe there is a strong parallel with him and Tom and it all comes back to Tom being “a man among men” Bobby aspires to that and we see him trying over and over. Again, however, all his comments wax philosophy and in comparison to Stephenie, his story appears more of those journeys we see of people on this show as opposed to “the game” Note the difference between his talks and Stephenie....
BJ “You do what you got to do”
Steph “I’m pissed; it’s not my time”
BJ “I don’t deserve it any more than he does”
Steph”I think we deserve it”
BJ”I’m scared of sharks, but we got a fish
Steph”I’m not a loser, for them to get everything is kind of tough”
BJ”I won’t know until last second what I’m putting down on that paper”
Steph “I’m going to vote for strategy.....”We have been meant to see these types of words coming from their mouths. Clearly their paths are extremely different. Also, obviously Stephenie needs to meet up with some of Koror for the prior editing to be fulfilled and we already knew this.
Bobby Jon” Maybe I’m the curse that causes us to lose” Interesting remark which makes me question how unlucky he truly is; he is always shown trying so hard but somehow falls short (in camp and at challenges).
And so we know when Stephenie caught the flint for Ulong.......fire is life and ultimately against a very moralistic and very unlucky Bobby and let’s note we had snakes involving Ulong (no crab shown) I believe we’ve established Steph’s lone crab story playing out and in light of Koror teeming with snakes; the next segment should unfold
The Characters of Koror - Dress Rehearsal
While obviously with Koror winning again, we are waiting for the complete destruction of once was Ulong; considering again “merger” was brought up yet again with Jeff and with that many references to same, it isn’t happening. Mark Burnett obviously is just going with the natural course of events and possibly warning future participants of two key mantras; voting off your strong is not wise and as Jeff said if you want to quit, don’t apply
The question we posed earlier was about Tom and the shark. Tom slayed the shark; symbolically wise, extremely positive especially in conjunction with Ian getting the clam as well as ATTEMPTING to go after the shark but misses
Ian “It was one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen. He keeps one upping me” (Could be a very interesting prophecy if somehow Tom “one ups” Ian)
Tom has increasingly shown us now not only that he is keeping an eye on what is going on around him but how he is being regarded. This again is an extremely positive sign of someone who can win this game. We made comparisons about Ian and Tom and how their portrayals have parted ways and this is also how his and Rupert’s edit differs I also noticed a slight shift about Ian. We already noted his “great adventure” role however I am detecting now a “goofy child” aura about him which makes me go back again to Jeff’s prior comments about him. Ian and using poor judgement could hurt him; couple that with Ian’s obvious son to father role and his continuing adventure does lend the question if Ian, does not go after the “big kill” when perhaps he should
Tom had some interesting comments in this episode from him/about him (Ian above) and ...
”You can’t go back and pretend you are less than you are or you don’t have capabilities”
I’m concerned with Gregg/Jenn, what happens when you tell one the other is getting voted off....... we are concerned where alliances lie; could be a monkey wrench we don’t see coming
”You can only taunt me for so long before I strike back at you”
Gregg “He’s a mad man”
Coby”It’s gonna be a little hard to vote him out now”
Tom was extremely prevalent in this episode; both actively and passively; from a direct standpoint to an observational standpoint; certainly rounding out his character. It will be very interesting to see how such an amazingly threatening player can prevail. Koror has been discussed by themselves and by Ulong as a smarter tribe Coby: “Brains over brawn once again” and let’s not forget that Willard deemed Tom to be the engine for Koror
Acts to Unfold
In addition to Tom the Shark Slayer and the subplot of Ian and Tom, we do have other acts that waiting for the audience.
Janu’s presence went unnoted again after the “spike” we had seen. However, note in the recap from the prior show, we saw Katie discuss Janu that Janu is losing it
Jeff:”Janu’s having trouble holding her breath/Janu you look like you have swam a marathon..
We were planted the seeds earlier on two things about Janu, her infirmed status and her drama queen behavior; it is now in terms of story telling put there to embellish on at some point; in light of the fact Janu herself was not a focused character but Mark Burnett has not allowed us to ignore this seed, it should flesh out shortly but probably not the next episode
Note that Janu’s “story” if you will, is not so much important for us to viewers to know her but perhaps the beginning of the dent in Gregg’s plan which was too clearly outlined for us which then moves us on to
Gregg/Jennifer Earlier we agreed that Gregg’s plan was a little too specific to not end up failing. Now with more observations on this pair as well; this should be an interesting storyline that will be pursued. I feel ultimately the only cause for this course of romance showing (like Janu’s story) is to ultimately show us how it fails And again, in most Survivor “male/female pairings” the woman in this pair whether platonic or romantic fares better suggesting that Gregg, our narrator of the plan will meet his end prior to Jenn. Interesting also how the sun set on them
Coby, Caryn and Katie The Caryn and Katie situation is dormant for now; in fact we even got to see a brief moment between them (during a positive outcome of course ). This situation could work two ways; the ultimate battle between them will be fulfilled or like Sarge and Rory it is petered out in light of other dynamics. Again, Caryn may end up being integral at some point in light of the fact that a key player for Gregg (Janu) may not be able to be used. Caryn, like Jenn appear to be those players we have seen in the past who do pretty well simply because they are necessary for those who make “active moves” and get booted in the process. I had gone back and watched various episodes and paid note to Katie in order to determine the lack of positive feeling about her from posters Interestingly enough, (and this is where I commend the power of editing) Katie really has NOT given the audience anything to so completely dislike her (other than the fact that she perhaps legitimately doesn’t do much work but compared to who? Those who may work a little too much?).
The power of persuasion in editing always fascinates me. Note that when Caryn and Katie had their first “tiff” a lot of people (myself included) came away with that feeling more negative about Caryn. However, once COBY got involved with his observations; suddenly Katie is appearing not so positive Editing manipulation at its best. Yes, most viewers of the show do not like those who appear to be doing nothing yet sitting safely insulated but I truly feel if not for the confessionals surrounding her, we may not feel quite as negative. So why is this happening? Do we, at some point, NEED to dislike Katie? In the absence of true villains, are some manipulated to create ones?
Our "not so subtle strategist - Coby
”Here comes the great white shark killer; the second he caught it, Gregg and I said, hmmm, it’ll be hard to vote him off now”
”Brains over brawn once again
Gregg and Jenn kiss........; I don’t care as long as I have them on my side......Again, those shown as the ”not so subtle strategists” are usually those we enjoy the strategy ride with but crash, seemingly violently. The reason their “end” appears so violent (metaphorically speaking) is because we have been so involved in everything they think. They are our “inside scoop” and are yanked away and a story “hole” is left in its place; we then to look to others to fill it for us. There is no subtlety to Coby and this does not bode well for him
Prior winners had some semblance of subtlety around them either by their narration/game play OR by sheer virtue that someone else was even more of a not so subtle strategist. (By way of example, those like Rich and Brian were very subtle players and people like Sandra and Jenna had Rob and J Fairplay as the not so subtle strategists) Let’s also not forget that Coby has already proven to that he is a threatening player. He has been adept at physical challenges and now obviously mental challenges.
And Things We Are Privy To.......
The rats Tom: “The rats realize we are not a threat to them; they are everywhere” (Slowly but surely the rats will attempt to move in)
And more Coby “Those three do nothing; I’m going to talk all three of those girls and throw them in the fire” (Again, not a good sign for Coby; the increasing tempo of his derision along with his threatening status.....)
VS, I was particulary interested in Caryn's editing change last night. She had been shown as negative up until now imho.Last night she was portrayed as a hard worker, smart, integral to the team winning RC.
Not only that, but several scenes of her talking about the tribe cohesiveness, kissing and hugging, and even giving Katie a smooch on the cheek.
I now believe that Caryn is not in danger at Koror for quite some time. Coby & Janu are definitely going before Caryn.
Excellent observations as always VS, I don't post in this thread often as I am intimidated by your skills in observation, lol, but I read your episode thread every week.
Please call me Cat!!
I agree those were excellent observations but I have to question two points. First I really don't agree that Coby can do well in physical challenges. He did well wrestling against James but remember the gauntlet were he looked really bad showing that he lacks athletism. He's no threat to win a string of individual immunities and so can be dispatched at any time contrary to Gregg.
In the second place, I think the reason Katie is disliked is due to the fact that she was the first woman picked at the beginning and really hasn't shown anything to prove she was worth that treatment. Again in the gauntlet she was the cause of Korror's defeat not even able to cross to the first platform. I think many people feel Stephenie was cheated out of her chance to be on the winning tribe because of Ian picking a less deserving player.
Here's what I don't get about Tom.In the middle of the RC, he's moaning and complaining about he wants to be involved with the challenge but can't.
Then at the IC, Gregg, Katie, and Caryn automatically sit out. But the Tom and Ian sit out also??? And they saw the challenge and knew what it was and what it would require. What is up???
Did Tom and Ian sit out in an attempt to throw the challenge? Was Tom laying low so as to play down the fact that he killed a shark bigger than Hatch's without having to get bit (while still suffering a minor cut)? I'm thinking that putting Jenn and Janu in the water as the swimmers was not the strongest team to put forward. Or was putting Coby as the caller an attempt to show that he is smart, and as a result his tribe may decide that he is too smart to take too far into the finals?
What kind of strategy is were we shown at the IC in terms of knowing the players and their motives?
Don't know about why Tom sat out (except that he has been involved in more of the IC&RC's than some of the others, maybe that's his way to let others participate and avoid ill feelings or deflect to some extent being a huge target.I think I heard Caryn sort of insisting that she participate(And didn't Caryn participate in both challenges? What happened there?)
But Ian cut his foot, I assume he was just nursing the wound, and probably will for the next set of challenges too.
Caryn the hard worker, Katie the creative one and Gregg the Muscle did the RCCoby the smart one, Janu the drowned one and Jenn the "who is that" one did the IC..
I was wondering that too about Tom, I think it was a way to let them participate more, and possibly, they decided back at camp we weren't shown Koror with their practice puzzle, maybe Janu and Jenn asked to do it... who knows?
Thanks. I confused Caryn with Janu. Poor Janu. Earlier spec on her possibly being the missing forth of the final four seem less likely now to me.
I took it as Coby Jenn and Janu was able to figure out the little puzzel back at camp better than the rest and had decided before they got there that the three of them would do the challenge because they did well at it at camp. We were shown so long at camp working on theirs I would bet that all of Korror was working on it and they did the best.
>I took it as Coby Jenn
>and Janu was able to
>figure out the little puzzel
>back at camp better than
>the rest and had decided
>before they got there that
>the three of them would
>do the challenge because they
>did well at it at
>camp. We were shown
>so long at camp working
>on theirs I would bet
>that all of Korror was
>working on it and they
>did the best.Are we sure that "all" of Koror can work on the puzzle prior to the challenge? I thought that only the 3 in the challenge would be allowed to practice without any help from the 5 sitting out. I thought they mentioned something about this during the SOS challenge.
Tom has maybe heard some grumbling around camp that he is in every challenge possible, so he wanted to hang back. And they were all given the game at camp to play with in advance. Although we only saw Ulong with their's. But it was maybe decided very quickly who was the best at the puzzle. And that may have been Coby. And since Janu seems weak they might have thought a puzzle was a non-physical challenge for her to be involved in. All we can do is guess at the reason since we were not shown their camp decision.
thanks loree you said what I was trying to say just in a better way.
You said it just fine gwrbassin. We seem to have posted at the same time.
I assumed they practiced the puzzle at camp and chose the three people who were the most adept at it.
This is not really a spoiler, but just a response to what you said about Tom getting a minor cut. I don't think he got cut while catching/killing the shark. I think the blood on his shoulder was from the shark - sprayed back on him when he chopped the shark in 1/2.The most interesting comment for me from this episode was the one where Tom said, "You can only taunt me for so long..." and then the camera pans to Coby. Indicates to me that Tom's alliance holds out over Coby's plans. Have you guys seen the vidcaps yet for next week? I'd be happy with a F4 of Tom/Ian/Katie/Steph...
Thanks VS for your great insights, as usual. I'm so mad at myself for not following my editing guru, dahli lama, svengali (sp??) etc. yesterday I could just spit....I agree Coby is in danger; Janu will quit or asked to be voted out; Gregg will try to use Caryn to fill Janu's shoes; Jenn will last longer than her "beau" Gregg; Tom is more and more getting the winner's edit; Steph will be the lone crab of Ulong; Katie is getting a negative edit (F2 ala Clay) through Coby which has colored how we see her...but I still hate her ..
One ? VS...when Ulong came in for IC, what did Ian say about them voting out James...I kept going back but I couldn't make it out...it was goofy and I agree he is the goof and Katie laughs at all his goofiness...I agree, Ian is less and less getting the winner's edit and more getting the GREAT ADVENTURE, always getting one upped by Tom..
Emydi,
I thought Ian was mocking James and said "You ain't lyin". One of James' quotes from the shooting challenge.
THanks Tan...I could not understand what the heck he said...and now I know why...Ian, a Pittsburgher (we have our own distinct accent) imitating the Southern "redneck" James...
Wonderful thoughts as always VS!The key quote of EP 7 to me was Tom's "You can only taunt me for so long before I strike back at you" Now obviously Tom standing in front of the tribe saying this instead of in private confessional, he was referring to the shark. However editing wise, whom was shown in private confessional right before the quote taunting Tom? Coby. This is all the proof I need that Tom will indeed outlast Coby. Like we probably didn't know this already but this just proved it in my eyes.
A little thought on Katie. I know some cough cough (emy) don't like the girl but I however love her. I thought it was quite interesting that both the bashers of Katie, Caryn and Coby, either had something positive to say about her or showed outward affection towards her. This is a good sign for the Katster to last much longer in game. IMHO she is a perfect final 2 opponent for really anyone. Sorry emy
I think she's a perfect final 2 partner too, but bc she would lose against anyone in a TC vote (except maybe Caryn), and with it looking like Tom or Ian will be sitting next to her...I think she'll at most get one vote from the jury
She looks like she's gained weight!!!
So glad to see people and their observations; I have always said I want to see what others see as our views are tinged with subjectivityemydi - With reference to what Ian said and I meant to post this as it was part of why I felt his editing shifting he mimicked James' stating "you ain't lying"
cat - Caryn's editing was definitely on a more positive side than what we have seen before which leads me to believe, again, Gregg's "brush off" of Caryn won't happen. I have found when someone who was viewed negatively gets a positive increase it merits a little more longevity especially in light of building story lines for other people on Koror (and not all positive at that!)
michel - great points you do bring up and again, my observations are obviously going to be different which is why I beg people to pos theirs. With reference to Coby and his challenge worthiness; absolutely you are correct that he did not fare well in the earlier challenge. However, he has been consistent in the physical challenges. Gregg is by far more of an individual threat but Gregg is supposed to be in Tom's alliance and as pointed out Tom did make a point of noting Willard's mental abilities; perhaps Tom is more in fear of being bested in that area. Obviously we have no way of knowing why people are thinking as they do which is why I go by editing patterns. Coby's editing is gaining momentum and not necessarily in a positive aspect and is not part of any alliance that Tom has formed.
Katie being selected first was always key with me in terms of there must have been discussions with Ian and Katie and Tom as the pick em went the way it did. Naturally, we all want someone who is working very hard and proving themselves to go far; that is the nature of the beast. Again though, my observations are simply through editing and I attempted as "objectively" as possible to see what made Katie viewed so negatively (yes emydi I know how you feel ) and in terms of strict watching, MOST of Katie's negativity was viewed through Coby and Caryn's narration.
dreambeliever - that was a great quote and I had forgot the most important point which you stated and that was the shot of Coby which you mention. It will be interesting to see if Tom is the direct reason for Coby leaving. I'm glad that you are posting about your like for Katie as well since it appears the majority of people don't really like her (I am in that camp but need to say when I watched the episodes concentrating solely on the show and not my personal preferences, she wasn't that bad Again, editing manipulation does come into play but michel is correct in that you can't overlook that those who want to see people accomplish challenges well won't be "high on Katie"
The question remains as already stated though, is Katie being manipulated through editing to help flesh out what will happen down the road?
VS- Just wanted to finally pipe in a few cents worth here.I found it very interesting that we were finally shown some of the Gregg/Jennifer relationship and its dynamics.
This relationship is clearly different than Rombers was. First of all, both Rob and Amber entered into it as a strategic alliance first and foremost, they were using the flirting to get themselves further in the game. All of the early quotes by these two were all about who was playing who, but the quotes remained about strategy.
Gregg and Jennifer each appear to want something totally different out of their relationship. Gregg for example seems to dig Jenn, but he is willing to keep that separate as he doesn't want their romance to make others suspicious of an alliance. His being standoffish at times indicates that he is playing the game of Survivor.
Jenn on the other hand seems to only want the relationship. She doesn't care what this looks like to the others, she wants Gregg to loosen up and be her date. She doesn't even act like she wants to strategize. Her editing still keeps her as a totally insignificant part of the tribe as a whole. I think that if she does stick around longer than Gregg, it is only because he is the far stronger challenge threat.
I notice that too - Jen(n) and Greg(g) will never have anywhere near the impact that Romber did because, unlike Romber, their relationship has been developed VERY quickly. Romber was a very gradual development, which allowed us to see that they were going to stay around for a while - otherwise the relationship wouldn't have been capitalised on.With Gregg and Jenn we have seen their relationship develop in only about two episodes (Jeff and Kim had to go first). This, although not necissarily presenting a problem for their longevity, does present a problem for the success of their relationship as a strategic tool.
Simply because the romance has been instigated so quickly, I don't think it's got much further to go. Gregg and Jenn might themselves, but not because of their relationship. I think it's a flash in the pan as far as strategy goes.
VS, I enjoy your observations and the others on this thread. I appreciate the insights that everyone brings to the show.Many seem to be converging on the conclusion that Tom is getting the winner's edit. He may well be the winner. I keep wondering, however, if Tom is the one the audience is meant to get involved with and to root for, only to have a surprise in the end. That surprise being the Ian can beat him. We see Ian all along, a bit in each episode, not hidden like some of the Korors but the story is not revolving around him as it did somewhat in the first two episodes with his winning the first immunity and then retrieving the flint. Ian is always there but his edit has moved sideways, like a shell game. Nothing going on here, move along, just a guy on an adventure. Or is he? Even when Brian, Survivor's most obvious winner, won, there was some guessing when it came to the final four and how it would play out. MB seems to like twists and I wonder if Ian taking out Tom is the twist we will get in the end. It just does not seem "MB enough" to have the show be about how Tom escapes ouster week after week as we wend our way to the F4.
Ian appreciates his wise tribe in the first episode; Ian saves the tribe by getting flint in the next episode; Ian is helpful in challenges; he gets food regularly for the tribe
; he has gotten himself very close to the biggest threat on the tribe (Tom) yet we do not see anyone talking about the need to boot Ian. No one even says anything negative about Ian. I think he is charming is way to the winner's circle.
VS, great work, as always.I expect that the Caryn and Katie story will play out. Caryn had a nice upswing in her editing this week, but I can’t figure it out. Most likely her edit furthers Katie as she, and we, realize Katie isn’t as worthless as originally thought. The irony in the knot tying episode was quite amusing and I actually though the “Got Food” SOS was pretty original. In the past MB has “hid” players prior to their boots, and if this were last season I would have predicted that this would end the Katie and Caryn story, and Caryn would be gone, but with the self destruction of Ulong throwing a wrench into the editing, I just don’t know.
Katie is continuing to emerge as a solid final two candidate, worthy of being there, but not necessarily worthy of winning. Should she reach the final two, her victory, or loss, may come down to her conflict with Caryn and Coby.
MB has had a challenging editing season. Normally, pre-jury, the bootees set up a great deal of the edited animosity towards the other contestants. MB can use this to create future conflicts, foreshadow future boots, and create the drama of the jury. Because, essentially all of one tribe will be on the jury he has to be a bit subtler. In past seasons Caryn would have been booted already, giving us plenty of negative back-story on Katie. Katie would be edited to redeem herself as worthy of the final two spot, but be annoying enough not to win. However, because Caryn will be on the jury MB cannot be as obvious, because if Coby and Caryn are on the Jury, how could she possibly win? This year MB may have to soften up the edits of all players in order to create jury drama.
I agree Ian’s edit has slightly changed for the worst. You described it as goofy, which is pretty accurate, but he also seems to be edited a bit arrogant. MB has shown us a couple of marginally snide comments of the last couple of episodes. This isn’t a death knell for Ian, most winners eventually show moments of weakness, but juxtaposed to Tom’s edit, he is marginalized. Tom realizes that he is a threat, while Ian either, does not, or just is not as big of a threat.
Janu’s story arc as definitely begun, and not positively. I am, however, not ready to throw in the towel for her. Jeff’s pre-season quote that Janu “didn’t quit” could of course could be taken ironically, and it is far more likely that she could also “not quit” and become a mercy boot, but she could also redeem herself. I am not sure how or why I became such a Janu fan, but MB rarely gives us such an obvious winner, such as Tom so early, and the only way I can see anyone else winning is via an underdog roll. Janu, as of now, could potentially get this edit.
Of course, this could all change next week.
Great job VS et al.This has been mostly the Ulong show so far, and now we know why. EPMB is using the editing to send a message to all future players of this game. This is FIRST a team game. We are constantly being shown the weaknesses of Ulong and the strength of Koror. Start playing this game as individuals from the get go and you will loose. If you are lazy and don't contribute to your tribe, you will be voted out. BJ may end up being the hard luck competitor, but he worked hard and is still in the game.
Steph is just being shown as the one who had the misfortune to be placed in the wrong tribe. We have heard her words over and over again about how she hates losing and that she is not used to this.
Yep, these are the right two to end up at the end of their tribe. We are also being shown that it is to little to late. The question is which one of these two survive? Like VS, I think we were told this during the first RC when Steph caught the flint. Fire is life and she will survive to make the jury. Once the tribes merge, look for an editing turn to see how she does the rest of the way.
Over at Koror we are given the buds of some strategy and potential conflicts. This is just the build up for when the game goes from a tribe game to an individual one.
Coby and his snide comments about everyone. Janu the drama queen. Katie and Caryn's unresolved conflict. Gregg's strategy and his relationship with Jen, who only seems to be just riding his coat tails. Ians great adventure. Tom, who's become a keen observer and strategist.
One more week and this game will make a dramatic change.
DRONES
Both BJ and Steph have to look back on this and realize that one of them should have taken the lead the first ep. Steph keeps complaining she doesn't like to lose. But yet she refuses to lead. She wants to be a follower. I really wonder looking back now if Steph had not been so determined to vote off Jolanda (Bj wanted to keep her) if they would have been a stronger tribe. Jolanda was booted because she was the one person that wanted to take charge. This upset some of them because they didn't want to take orders and they got rid of her. But nobody stepped up to the plate to replace Jolanda as a leader. They spent all their time looking around at each other and wondering what to do. Then they would each go their own way. Not surprising that they did better in the challenges that were individual and they could do it alone. When they had to work as a group they went in all directions like the first challenge when they all rowed in a different way and could not get to their flag. In comparison Tom became the leader of Koror and even when they didn't like it, they went along with his advice and they worked as a team.
VS, after next week, I think it's time to start a new thread. Would you mind doing the honors again
DRONES
DRONE, you read my mind as usualGreat thoughts everyone!
zazzy, you bring up an interesting point as many of us did feel Ian represented a very positive characterization; worthy of a potential win. My main reason that I took Ian out of contention is that over the seasons, I have noticed (whether positive or negative) the winner DOES incorporate the game in their editing (again Vee is not included this since I think MB did this editing differently however the fact that a lot of drama happened and she seemed the only one "outside" of it could in fact have been the signal but I digress)
Ian has not (and I did wait a rather long time to see if it would change in terms of Survivor time) been shown in "game mode" His confessionals are all about the adventure. He is having fun, feeling secure and seems very content where he is. Now we do know there will be a hint of "something" with his discussion of his "final four" if I recall the promo correctly. What I try to understand with the editing is if commentary made is needed to help flesh out the ultimate outcome and what may happen to prevent or assist it OR whether it is used in direct conjunction to that player saying it.
But before I continue spouting with no end in sight, I see your point as I was very "high" on Ian until I continued waiting (in vain) for any strategic shading if you will. At this point, I do think that Ian really DOES appear to be mainly be the son to Tom's father and let Tom continue taking the reins (this was very apparent to me in the last episode in the symbolism revolving around their fishing)
WLR - I agree with you completely. I do feel that Janu may, in fact, go out with a bang, not a whimper despite the relatively low key editing. We often see "sick" boots just fade out but Katie's suggestion of Janu's drama queen aura makes me sense we may get Janu in her full state prior to her leaving or else why leave that comment in; the comment was not really necessary. I am still trying to sharpen my skills in that area though (comments purposely left in or comments to just fill up time)
At this point with the Ulongs burning out, Koror's editing will step up more; no question to that The fact that we have seen certain subplots starting to emerge
Caryn's upswing
Coby's involvement
Janu's physical state
Tom's awareness
Gregg/Jenn's romance
Stephenie's roleetc. should prove interesting. I do think that Caryn will take over from Janu and that Coby unfortunately put a target on his back. Stephenie will be utilized in some fashion and Gregg's plan will fail. Katie does make a perfect foil but ironically after last season, I will not take it on faith that the final two will consist of bad vs. good. Twilla made a perfect foil to Chris yet Chris was not exactly the most positive winner and certainly ended up making "us" question who was really worse (Twilla or Chris) We can never know the minds of the jury and the reasons for their votes. The editing at this time does imply that Katie would not be suggestive of a win but by a matter of one vote, she could.
I try to determine THAT once the jury starts assembling and how they were booted, who they were close with, who they feel betrayed by and how they approach choices (logic or emotion)
VS you raise an excellent point. The final two opponent does not have to be bad, just a good foil. This year we probably won't see slightly good vs. slightly bad or slightly bad vs. slightly worse. Instead it could good, or very good, vs. slightly better.I think Katie is actually getting a pretty good edit, and I don't rule her out at all. But should she face Tom, Tom's edit would have to get a twinge of negativity, so "we" think that she can win. Koror's editing definitely will step up over the next few episodes. In addition to your list, the Ian/Katie/Tom pick-um relationship should also begin to build, how these three players are edited, juxtaposed to each other, will be key. Of course Tom’s or Katie’s edit could also turn dramatically. We have a lot of time left and, it is not as if Katie and Tom are a lock for the final two. Sometimes, I tend to get way ahead of myself.
Drones, you have made an outstanding observation, regarding team versus individual play. I also noticed somewhat of a reunification of Koror in this episode. One of the key ways we saw this was through Caryn. Caryn’s upswing may have little to do with her story and more to do with the team play of Koror and MB’s message. VS, once again, is correct. This should be a key subplot for the near future.
Stephanie’s edit remains interesting. I am curious how Ian’s final four alliance plays out next week. Similar to the Greg/Jen/Coby alliance I tend to discount the obvious nature of it. But next to Tom, she is receiving the most positive edit. My gut tells me that she is being edited as winning the mini-survivor Ulong not the whole show. How she fairs when she reaches Koror should be interesting, but, alas, I have little hope for her.
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-05 AT 09:12 PM (EST)As usual, I've been late in getting to read the posts and everyone has great insight, so much so, that I don't have much to add.
I just wanted to comment on Ian and his up to now "adventure" edit. We see/hear Ian actually define a strategy in the Ep. 8 promos this week. This is drastically different from his happy go lucky edit in the past and I will be looking to clues this week as to how they may be changing his personna.
Another comment on the edits on how the men view Tom. It seams Ian, Gregg, BJ and Coby all have a very high degree of respect for Tom. How will that play with them when it comes time to plot a bootie? We've seen Coby acklowdege the respect, but he is not going to let that get in the way of getting himself closer to the million. We've seen BJ boot the "less deserving" time after time and he seems to reward those he respects by not voting against them. What will Ian and Gregg do when it comes down to the nitty gritty?
Edited to remove siggie.
-Loo
I wonder how much Tom and Ian talk strategy and we don't see it. Tom said "we" when he was talking about Gregg and Jenn. Tom asked how would either react when WE tell them the other has to be booted. Who is this "we"? Is it Tom and Ian, or Tom, Ian and Katie? But Tom seems to think this mysterious WE is in charge and will tell Gregg or Jenn how to vote.
LAST EDITED ON 04-06-05 AT 10:32 PM (EST)I don't know whether or not this has been raised already (this IS a massive thread) - but something I have always taken notice of is the music being played at any one time. Often, the shows will have three main themes, which change every two seasons. Pearl Islands and All Stars had the same themes, and it seems that the same music from vanuatu is being recycled for Palau.
Usually, each season will have the following themes:
- a 'tense' theme (usually during challenges, with certain musical motifs being reused at times of serious strategy talk)
- a positive theme (variations do exist, however you are most likely to notice it after a reward, or at a time of tribal bonding. Once again, motifs from this theme are reused at various stages)
- a 'kooky' theme - THIS is the one to watch for. Most often (at least in the tropical locations) it has consisted of a percussion instrument - usually a marimba - playing a certain theme. This theme can pop up anywhere and is used to point out stupidity and/or illogicality - general 'craziness'.This last 'kooky' theme is the one you would hear when someone makes a funny mistake in a challenge (think Leann and her friend in S9, not taking the immunity challenge seriously) - you would also hear it when something weird happens around camp (think Sandra's fish incident in Pearl Islands). Often, it is used to point out the neuroses of the characters - it was patently obvious earlier on in the show when we saw Ulong rising form their sleep, looking altogether haggard. This 'kooky' theme paints the characters as naive, stupid, weird or eccentric.
The music that a character has playing during their confessionals can aid you in realising what characters are being edited to be perceived as. For example:
- Coby consistently gets the 'kooky' music during his confessionals. This suggests that his ideas aren't meant to be taken seriously - he is not only eccentric but he is being treated like a comic relief. He cannot win with that over abundance of ridiculing music.
- Caryn also often gets this theme, which says a similar thing about her role in the piece.
- Stephenie often gets tense motifs inserted behind her confessionals - implying that she has alot to rise over and will be an important part of the game.
- Ian usually gets positive motifs, which is used basically to make the audience like him, other than that, little can be said about the implications for his story.Usually (or at least I should think, because I don't have every episode from every season at hand) the winner should have a balanced mixture of all three. Sandra had an eccentric side, a maternal side, and a strategic side - all of which was reflected by a consistent portrayal of those three themes in her confessional music.
This is a theory I have been working on for some time and I would like to throw it out there and see what is thought about it. The music has probably been raised before - but it is a VERY important part of the editing which can show us exactly who we should take seriously as a plausible winner.
If you have any comments, suggestions etc. or if you want to correct me on any one thing feel free to do so. I just thought I wouldn't mind throwing this out there and seeing what is thought.
every season has a life-related theme also.
for example, the season of palau obviously has a theme of choices. the choices they make now will affect their entire game. for example, who they picked in the beginning, what to take in the first challenge, when to jump off the boat in the beginning, whether to start building shelter when they first got there, whether to take the mystery camp, and other examples.
That's more of an editing theme, much like the a novel has various 'themes'. I am talking more about specific musical 'themes', the difference being that this is an actual piece of music. Like how 'The heart asks pleasure first' is one of the 'themes' from the movie 'The Piano'.Your point is just as valid though, but I was specifically looking at musical themes, not editing themes...
There are abundant themes in Survivor which makes this a great showWe have been hit in the face with choices and consequences and obviously the result of those choices and I have a feeling we aren't done yet. These choices were not only made by those which affected others but choices people made for themselves.
applejack you are correct that the music surrounding the show is thematically approached. I recall mentioning that I thought I even heard a semi "Jaws" diddy when Tom first went to hunt the shark
I tend not to put too much of my focus on discerning what music goes with what scenario only due to my concentration in other areas but it is a great hypothesis you have put out and one I think you should see if there is a certain pattern. I more or less attributed the music, the animal imagery, the scene imagery and so forth to how the mood is at that time for each tribe or each person during the course of the show. In S9 the volcano was represented quite a bit and I noticed the level of eruption correlated to the upcoming events. I usually approached the music the same way though I will be interested in your findings
I never paid attention to the music, but I think you might be on to something. I'll pay attention tonight AppleJack! Thanks!VS I just found the courage to read this long tread, but I am now hooked, keep up the good work!
You may have to put up with my thoughts coming in fairly late - I don't get the show till Tuesday nights (Monday night/tuesday morning) because I live in Aus. But I would be more than happy to start paying close attention to the music all the time. That post above is really just an outline for this season, and I'm not sure if it's entirely accurate yet but I CAN refine it - that's what theories are all about!
Well, there goes one alliance revealed -- Ian said that he, Tom, Stephenie and Katie would be a Final Four alliance. Specific alliances revealed always fail. Is Stephenie going to be the only one that doesn't make it to the final four, or maybe we'll see Tom or Ian booted in third or fourth place instead of going to the final two?One thing I noticed about last night's episode (Ep.8) was that the camera repeatedly panned to Jenn. Not only did she have a couple of confessionals and the group mentioned her name a couple times during the discussion of what to do with the fresh water, but on numerous other times, the camera panned to her face in a closeup during the challenges or around camp, etc. I'd say about 10-12 times besides the confessionals/fresh water talk. What can we make of this, and why Jenn in particular and not, let's say, Caryn or Katie or Janu?
Scratch and sniff
"Tsk, tsk. Pepe's messing with the newbies again." Spidey, 3/30/05