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Original Message
"DWTS#8 Dial Idol Predictions"

Posted by Snidget on 03-10-09 at 07:38 AM
So being as I like numbers and data and all that I'm going to do some analysis of the dial idol stuff again this year.


Table of contents

Messages in this discussion
"Episode 1"
Posted by Snidget on 03-10-09 at 07:49 AM
I'll have to combine this with Episode 2 before we get a vote off, but I thought I'd see where we stand.

DI Score (DWTS version)

29.97 Melissa & Tony
25.39 Lawrence & Edyta
20.89 Steve & Karina
19.49 Holly & Dmitry
15.60 Steve-O & Lacey
15.53 Lil' Kim & Derek
14.61 Giles & Cheryl
11.87 Ty & Chelsie
11.59 Shawn & Mark
11.54 Chuck & Julianne
8.73 Denise & Maksim
7.82 David Alan & Kym
7.00 Belinda & Jonathan

24 Giles & Cheryl
23 Melissa & Tony
23 Shawn & Mark
21 Lil' Kim & Derek
20 Chuck & Julianne
19 David Alan & Kym
18 Holly & Dmitry
18 Denise & Maksim
17 Steve-O & Lacey
17 Belinda & Jonathan
16 Lawrence & Edyta
14 Ty & Chelsie
13 Steve & Karina

I then took the Dial Idol Scores and did a % of the total score as well as a % of the total Judges score and added them together.

I took the average of that and the standard error to divide them into three groups.

Safe (Lowest risk of going home)
24.4% Melissa & Tony
19.3% Lawrence & Edyta
17.2% Giles & Cheryl
17.2% Holly & Dmitry

Probably Safe (Low risk of going home)
16.4% Lil' Kim & Derek
15.8% Steve & Karina
15.3% Shawn & Mark
14.8% Steve-O & Lacey

Possible Dance Off Peeps.
14.0% Chuck & Julianne
11.8% Denise & Maksim
11.7% David Alan & Kym
11.7% Ty & Chelsie
10.5% Belinda & Jonathan

Notes: Lawrence and Edyta had a pretty low judges score, but the voting seemed very strong. America likes it's dancing football stars. Steve and Karina also seem to have strong voting which may save them initially if this keeps up next week.

While Chuck and Julianne were on the top half of the judges leaderboard, they didn't get that much in the voting so it pulled them down quite a bit, maybe America doesn't like this twist that much. The Judges scores will probably keep them around awhile if this trend continues.


"Episode 2"
Posted by Snidget on 03-17-09 at 07:17 AM
Episode 2 only DI score (DWTS)

23.48 Giles & Cheryl
21.57 Melissa & Tony
18.85 Steve & Karina
18.80 Lawrence & Edyta
17.45 Holly & Dmitry
17.38 Lil' Kim & Derek
13.24 Chuck & Julianne
13.24 Belinda & Jonathan
13.05 Steve-O & Lacey
12.57 Shawn & Mark
11.19 David Alan & Kym
9.97 Ty & Chelsie
9.20 Denise & Maksim

Added together both weeks DI and here is % of total DI score

12.9% Melissa & Tony
11.0% Lawrence & Edyta
9.9% Steve & Karina
9.5% Giles & Cheryl
9.2% Holly & Dmitry
8.2% Lil' Kim & Derek
7.2% Steve-O & Lacey
6.2% Chuck & Julianne
6.0% Shawn & Mark
5.5% Ty & Chelsie
5.1% Belinda & Jonathan
4.8% David Alan & Kym
4.5% Denise & Maksim

Judges combined score

51 Giles & Cheryl
49 Melissa & Tony
47 Shawn & Mark
44 Lil' Kim & Derek
40 Chuck & Julianne
39 Denise & Maksim
36 Lawrence & Edyta
36 Holly & Dmitry
36 David Alan & Kym
35 Belinda & Jonathan
34 Ty & Chelsie
31 Steve-O & Lacey
30 Steve & Karina

Risk with DI and Judges % combined Separated based on Average and Standard Error. Note the data was kind of skewed this week so that messes with how they separate out. Everyone is above the average-standard deviation number but two are quite a bit higher than the average+ the standard deviation.

Next to No risk of going home

33.0% Melissa & Tony
30.5% Giles & Cheryl
26.3% Lil' Kim & Derek
25.9% Lawrence & Edyta
25.4% Shawn & Mark

Low risk of going home

24.0% Holly & Dmitry
22.7% Chuck & Julianne

At risk for going home/dance off for your life

22.3% Steve & Karina
20.5% Denise & Maksim
19.9% Steve-O & Lacey
19.6% David Alan & Kym
19.5% Belinda & Jonathan
19.5% Ty & Chelsie


"RE: Episode 2"
Posted by vince3 on 03-17-09 at 11:03 AM
I expand from last night: If Steve-O ends up in the Bottom 2, and isn't cleared to dance, then what happens? Auto-eliminate? Keeps his scores and hopes for the best?

Even if he survives tonight, he's still in deep trouble, I think......


"RE: Episode 2"
Posted by Snidget on 03-17-09 at 11:14 AM
I'm also wondering how the bottom two thing is going to work if one of the two can't dance.

I haven't seen any news today on what the diagnosis is for him, or reports he is out of the hospital.

Now he may have enough votes to keep him out of the bottom two, and then they can see if he can dance next week and if he can't just do the whole thing but then not eject someone at the end.

I wouldn't be surprised with the lack of news if that means he's going to be out and it doesn't matter.


"Episode 3"
Posted by Snidget on 03-24-09 at 07:22 AM
Dial Idol DWTS Score

22.56 Giles & Cheryl
21.65 Lawrence & Edyta
21.49 Melissa & Tony
21.14 Ty & Chelsie
19.92 Holly & Dmitry
19.90 Shawn & Mark
17.32 David Alan & Kym
14.93 Chuck & Julianne
12.20 Lil' Kim & Derek
10.07 Steve-O & Lacey
10.03 Denise & Maksim
8.80 Steve & Karina

Judges Score

27 Giles & Cheryl
27 Melissa & Tony
27 Shawn & Mark
25 Lil' Kim & Derek
24 David Alan & Kym
23 Chuck & Julianne
23 Ty & Chelsie
20 Lawrence & Edyta
17 Holly & Dmitry
16 Denise & Maksim
15 Steve-O & Lacey
10 Steve & Karina

Will the votes save it from being a battle of the Steves?

Probably not from the DI% added to the Judges%

High probability of being safe

21.9% Giles & Cheryl
21.4% Melissa & Tony
20.6% Shawn & Mark
19.6% Ty & Chelsie
18.7% Lawrence & Edyta
18.1% David Alan & Kym

Probably safe

16.7% Holly & Dmitry
16.5% Chuck & Julianne
15.9% Lil' Kim & Derek

Likely to be in the Dance Off

11.3% Denise & Maksim
10.9% Steve-O & Lacey
8.3% Steve & Karina

Steve-O and Denise are very close in the DI score so depending on how they fall in the margin of error will tell how that goes.

Those three are far enough off the Probably safe pack that it seems unlikely that anyone else will be in the dance off than couples in the bottom three.

Holly, Lawrence and Ty that were the next 3 lowest judges scores all seemed to do pretty well with the DI score and David, Chuck and Lil' Kim who didn't do as well in the voting all had pretty good judges scores.


"RE: Episode 3"
Posted by vince3 on 03-24-09 at 08:20 AM
I agree that Woz was a definitive in the Dance-off, and either Steve-O and Denise were probably the best chances for the one that would join them......

Unless whoever ends up there gets a similar score to what Woz gets in the Dance-off, Woz probably will go home regardless......


"RE: Episode 3"
Posted by Belle Book on 03-24-09 at 03:41 PM
Seems like Steve & Karina will definitely be in the Dance-Off, and either Steve-O & Lacey or Denise & Maksim will join them. But it probably won't matter who goes up against Steve & Karina -- that team will still be safe and we'll be saying good-bye to Steve & Karina.

Belle Book


"Episode 4"
Posted by Snidget on 03-31-09 at 07:36 AM
Dial Idol Rankings (DWTS version)

22.55 Lil' Kim & Derek
22.02 Melissa & Tony
19.96 Giles & Cheryl
18.60 David Alan & Kym
17.81 Chuck & Julianne
17.75 Shawn & Mark
17.14 Holly & Dmitry
17.03 Lawrence & Edyta
16.86 Ty & Chelsie
15.20 Steve-O & Lacey
15.08 Steve & Karina

Judges Scores

30 Giles & Cheryl
29 Melissa & Tony
27 Lil' Kim & Derek
25 Shawn & Mark
25 Ty & Chelsie
22 Chuck & Julianne
22 David Alan & Kym
19 Lawrence & Edyta
16 Holly & Dmitry
15 Steve-O & Lacey
12 Steve & Karina

Combined DI and Judges score
Now both Steves were in this position last week, and they bothe were safe. I think they are both likely to be getting a lot of online voting which will not be counted by DI.

Almost no risk of going home.

22.99% Melissa & Tony
22.43% Lil' Kim & Derek
22.38% Giles & Cheryl

Low risk of going home.

19.21% Shawn & Mark
18.76% Ty & Chelsie
18.39% David Alan & Kym
18.00% Chuck & Julianne

Likely at risk of going home.

16.37% Lawrence & Edyta
15.18% Holly & Dmitry
13.80% Steve-O & Lacey
12.50% Steve & Karina


"Episode 5"
Posted by Snidget on 04-07-09 at 11:10 AM
Dial Idol Score
28.87 Lil' Kim & Derek
26.75 Melissa & Tony
26.33 Shawn & Mark
25.53 Chuck & Julianne
23.93 Giles & Cheryl
21.08 Lawrence & Edyta
19.76 Ty & Chelsie
17.88 David Alan & Kym
9.87 Steve-O & Lacey

Judges Score

29 Giles & Cheryl
26 Lil' Kim & Derek
26 Shawn & Mark
25 Melissa & Tony
23 Chuck & Julianne
22 David Alan & Kym
21 Ty & Chelsie
20 Lawrence & Edyta
18 Steve-O & Lacey

Combined

Hmm which statistics to use. It is an interesting distribution this week. If I use Standard Error (which is smaller) then only one team is in the middle group. Using Standard Deviation only the tippy top or the very bottom are not in the middle group.

Just a weird set up, so I'm dividing by thirds.


Top third (not going anywhere, or I'll eat one of edyta's costumes, not that it will be very filling)

26.82% Lil' Kim & Derek
25.77% Giles & Cheryl
25.55% Shawn & Mark

Middle third (unlikely to be in danger)

25.28% Melissa & Tony
23.72% Chuck & Julianne
20.06% Lawrence & Edyta

Bottom third (likely to be at risk)

19.88% Ty & Chelsie
19.42% David Alan & Kym
13.51% Steve-O & Lacey

How much would Steve-0 and Lacey have to pull up their judges score assuming David or Ty stays the same, well assuming the DI score is pretty accurate it is going to take near perfection, and it depends on how they redo the calculation, if I readjust for the extra score they don't quite get up to the 19% level.



"RE: Episode 5"
Posted by Belle Book on 04-07-09 at 03:32 PM
I'm not sure who's going to be in the Bottom 2 along with Steve-O & Lacey, but I'm guessing David Alan & Kym. Even so, I think David Alan & Kym will survive another week while Steve-O & Lacey have to say good-bye. Of course, I don't mind -- Steve-O is the weakest one left.

Belle Book


"Week 6 (8 left)"
Posted by Snidget on 04-14-09 at 08:13 AM
Kind of interesting how it all fell out this week with the numbers we have.

DI DWTS score

31.90 Melissa & Tony
28.86 Shawn & Mark
27.41 Giles & Cheryl
26.20 Lil' Kim & Derek
23.41 Steve-O & Lacey
22.82 Lawrence & Edyta
20.44 Ty & Chelsie
18.95 Chuck & Julianne

Judges Score

28 Lil' Kim & Derek
27 Melissa & Tony
26 Shawn & Mark
26 Giles & Cheryl
23 Chuck & Julianne
22 Lawrence & Edyta
18 Ty & Chelsie
14 Steve-O & Lacey

Combined percentages

Probably Safe
30.6% Melissa & Tony
28.6% Shawn & Mark
28.3% Lil' Kim & Derek
27.8% Giles & Cheryl

At Risk
23.4% Lawrence & Edyta
22.0% Chuck & Julianne
20.0% Ty & Chelsie
19.3% Steve-O & Lacey

Looking at the stats they really seem bi-modal. No on is in the average +/- Standard Error range, additionally only the first and last person our outside the average +/- the Standard Deviation.

I'm thinking we may see our final four and our doesn't really matter which order they go out four with this break down. Steve-O's fans may be able to keep him a week or two more, but as the field narrows I doubt they can get the numbers to get him into the top 4 couples. I'm not sure any of the other bottom group has either the fans or the skill to crack the top 4 couples from this analysis.


"RE: Week 6 (8 left)"
Posted by CTgirl on 04-14-09 at 08:46 AM
ITA that we have our top 4 and the bottom 4 can go in any order (Although Chuck and Julianne might be the last to go of this group because of Julianne's fan base and he's the best of the bottom.)

Thanks for doing this every week Snidget.


"RE: Week 6 (8 left)"
Posted by ssinmd on 04-14-09 at 11:18 AM
Julianne has fans????

"RE: Week 6 (8 left)"
Posted by vince3 on 04-14-09 at 09:22 AM
I doubt that the scenario that I'm about to propose can happen, because between Steve-O's lack of expertise and various injuries so far this season make it extremely difficult, but hear me out.......

What if, Steve-O has a "Breakthrough Performance" in the next week or two, provided that he survives this week?

Think about it, Lance and Lacey were in a similar boat around this time last year, and they started going up the ladder after a few stints in the Bottom 2 mid-season........ and they finished in 3rd.....


"7 couples left"
Posted by Snidget on 04-21-09 at 08:20 AM
Not much difference between the judges and the votes, again.

DWTS DI score

35.52 Shawn & Mark
34.88 Melissa & Tony
32.81 Giles & Cheryl
31.39 Chuck & Julianne
27.13 Lil' Kim & Derek
21.21 Ty & Chelsie
17.06 Lawrence & Edyta

Judges Score

29 Melissa & Tony
28 Shawn & Mark
27 Giles & Cheryl
27 Chuck & Julianne
26 Lil' Kim & Derek
24 Ty & Chelsie
21 Lawrence & Edyta

Looks like Chuck and Julianne took Lil' Kim's spot in the top four we will see if that holds up or is a one week thing.

The combined data is really skewed again so using the average and standard error may be problematic (and standard deviation is worse since it is way too large)

Likely top 4 for the night (above the mean + SE)

33.6% Melissa & Tony
33.3% Shawn & Mark
31.4% Giles & Cheryl
30.7% Chuck & Julianne

May be on the bubble

28.0% Lil' Kim & Derek

In danger (below the mean - SE)

23.9% Ty & Chelsie
20.2% Lawrence & Edyta


"RE: 7 couples left"
Posted by vince3 on 04-21-09 at 09:00 AM
Looks like Lawrence will need a ton of email/texts to save his butt this week.....

"RE: 7 couples left"
Posted by Belle Book on 04-21-09 at 06:45 PM
I don't think he'll get them. Bye-bye, Lawrence.

Belle Book


"6 Couples Left"
Posted by Snidget on 04-28-09 at 07:44 AM
DWTS Dial Idol Score

41.51 Shawn & Mark
36.64 Giles & Cheryl
35.47 Melissa & Tony
34.42 Chuck & Julianne
28.91 Lil' Kim & Derek
23.05 Ty & Chelsie

Judges Score

56 Lil' Kim & Derek
55 Giles & Cheryl
52 Shawn & Mark
52 Ty & Chelsie
51 Chuck & Julianne
46 Melissa & Tony

Combined %

Well at least this week was a bit more normal of a distribution, divided based on mean +/- Standard Error. If you do it with Standard Deviation only the top person and bottom person are in a different group.

Probably Safe.
37.42% Shawn & Mark
35.95% Giles & Cheryl

Small risk of going home
33.56% Chuck & Julianne

Moderate to high risk of going home.
32.48% Melissa & Tony
32.40% Lil' Kim & Derek
28.19% Ty & Chelsie


"RE: 6 Couples Left"
Posted by vince3 on 04-28-09 at 11:10 AM
Yep, this is a big week for Melissa's fans. If they keep her away from the Red Light Special, let alone the Bottom 2, if she's healthy enough to continue, look out!

"RE: 6 Couples Left"
Posted by Belle Book on 04-28-09 at 03:36 PM
If you do it with ordinals, there's a different ranking:

First according to Dial Idol would be Shawn & Mark, second would be Gilles & Cheryl, third would be Melissa & Tony, fourth would be Chuck & Julianne, fifth would be Lil' Kim & Derek and last would be Ty & Chelsie. The judges put Lil' Kim & Derek in first, Gilles & Cheryl in second, Shawn & Mark in third, Ty & Chelsie fourth, Chuck & Julianne in fifth and Melissa & Tony in last (this combines their dance scores for their Latin dances with the ones from either Team Mambo or Team Tango).

Shawn & Mark won the viewers' votes and came in third with the judges, so she got an overall score of 4. Gilles & Cheryl came in second both with the viewers and with the judges and also got a score of 4, but Shawn wins the tiebreaker because of viewer votes. Either way, they're both safe. Lil' Kim & Derek came in first with the judges but fifth with the viewers, and gets an overall score of 6. Still, they're safe because there are three others with a higher score than them. Melissa & Tony are in third with the viewers but last with the judges (though only because their rehearsal of the jive had to count), and got an overall score of 9. Chuck & Julianne were in fourth with the viewers and fifth with the judges, and they also get an overall score of 9. However, Melissa & Tony win the tiebreaker and Chuck & Julianne are in more danger than Lil' Kim & Derek or Melissa & Tony. Ty & Chelsie come in last with the viewers and fourth with the judges -- and get an overall score of 10. Ty & Chelsie are out as a result.

Belle Book


"RE: 6 Couples Left"
Posted by Snidget on 04-28-09 at 03:53 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-28-09 AT 04:00 PM (EST)

The show stopped doing it by ordinals several seasons back.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_with_the_stars_US#Scoring_and_voting_procedure

They do percentages now so they can really whack someone with a very low judges score and have it actually be able to force someone out.

I did it by percentages because that is how the show does it. If that is a bad idea, let me know why.

The hard part is knowing how to convert dial idol numbers to percentages of the vote. They usually go by % busy so converting back to % of the total vote is where the error is going to be, IMO.


"RE: 6 Couples Left"
Posted by Belle Book on 04-28-09 at 06:23 PM
Hmm, I didn't know that. It's not a bad idea actually since as you pointed out, they can really whack someone with a very low judge's score and get the person out (like what should have happened to Master P), I just didn't know the show changed to a different format.

Belle Book


"Quarter-Finals/Top 5"
Posted by Snidget on 05-05-09 at 07:44 AM
DI DWTS Score

46.32 Melissa & Tony
43.89 Giles & Cheryl
38.45 Lil' Kim & Derek
37.54 Shawn & Mark
33.79 Ty & Chelsie

Judges Score

57 Melissa & Tony
56 Giles & Cheryl
56 Shawn & Mark
52 Lil' Kim & Derek
46 Ty & Chelsie

Combined percentages Separated by average +/- Standard Error

Probably Safe
44.5% Melissa & Tony
42.9% Giles & Cheryl

Lower risk of going home
39.7% Shawn & Mark
38.7% Lil' Kim & Derek

High risk of going home
34.1% Ty & Chelsie

If I do it with Standard Deviation (always bigger than Standard Error) then Giles/Cheryl go into the middle group


"RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5"
Posted by vince3 on 05-05-09 at 08:06 AM
Kinda figured as much. It would be surprising if any other couple than Ty/Chelsie goes home tonight...... shocking, even.

"RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5"
Posted by Snidget on 05-05-09 at 08:09 AM
I probably could have guessed that before the performance show.

I give him a lot of credit for being most improved and making it this far, but he really isn't at the same level as the rest of the pack. I'm not sure he's at the same level the rest of the pack was the first week, especially in Latin dances.


"RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5"
Posted by Belle Book on 05-05-09 at 03:27 PM
Sounds like Ty & Chelsie are going home. I'm not surprised -- Ty's nice but he's just not as good as the others. Shawn & Mark might be the last ones told that they're safe if the producers want to get Shawn's fans voting like mad the next week.

Belle Book


"Semi Finals/Top 4"
Posted by Snidget on 05-12-09 at 07:47 AM
DI DWTS Score

58.35 Giles & Cheryl
52.84 Melissa & Tony
48.76 Ty & Chelsie
40.76 Shawn & Mark

(only Giles and Cheryl is considered safe by them)

Judges Leader Board

60 Giles & Cheryl
56 Shawn & Mark
55 Melissa & Tony
48 Ty & Chelsie

Combined Percentages, separated by average +/- Standard Error.
If I use Standard Deviation they bottom two are within the range around average.

High Probability of Being Safe
56.6% Giles & Cheryl

Probably Safe
51.5% Melissa & Tony

At risk of going home
46.3% Ty & Chelsie
46.0% Shawn & Mark


"RE: Semi Finals/Top 4"
Posted by vince3 on 05-12-09 at 11:00 AM
Considering what happened last week, it wouldn't surprise me if Ty/Chelsie survive again.......... but he needs a miracle to actually win.......

"RE: Semi Finals/Top 4"
Posted by Belle Book on 05-12-09 at 04:16 PM
I hope not, for two reasons! First, I think it's time for Ty & Chelsie to go home -- no offense to Ty, but he's the weakest one left. Second, I don't want Shawn & Mark to go home! Or even Melissa & Tony, but as I'm the one voting for Shawn & Mark, they're the ones I want to stick around the most!

Belle Book


"RE: Semi Finals/Top 4"
Posted by Loree on 05-12-09 at 06:29 PM
I thought they really overscored Shawn in her first dance when they gave her all 10s. It reminded me of how they often did that with Lil Kim. I wondered if they were worried she did not have enough fan support and they were trying to help her. I am surprised that she might need the help. I thought her fan support was stronger than this. But Ty has really been a fan fave lately.

"Finale"
Posted by Snidget on 05-19-09 at 07:56 AM
DI (DWTS Score)
70.02 Giles & Cheryl
66.86 Melissa & Tony
63.13 Shawn & Mark

Judges Leader Board
58 Giles & Cheryl
58 Shawn & Mark
56 Melissa & Tony

Percentages added together.

Above Average + Standard Error
68.7% Giles & Cheryl

Within the Standard Error of the average
66.0% Melissa & Tony

Below average - Standard Error
65.3% Shawn & Mark


"RE: Finale"
Posted by vince3 on 05-19-09 at 09:03 AM
This may come down to the texts, the non-DI phone votes, and the Encore for the judges that they dance tonight........

If Gilles/Cheryl get 30 tonight, then they probably will win, especially if Melissa/Tony don't duplicate the effort.


"RE: Finale"
Posted by Snidget on 05-19-09 at 09:07 AM
I played with the numbers a bit. I think if Giles/Cheryl (assuming on-line votes mirror dial idol) get a 27 or higher on the judges score it will be really hard for any other team to beat them.

If Giles/Cheryl get a 24 (unlikely) then either of the other teams has a shot, with Shawn/Mark needing either a 29 or 30 and Melissa/Tony needing 27 or better.