URL: http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi
Forum: DCForumID2
Thread Number: 5585
[ Go back to previous page ]

Original Message
"In past versions of Survivor, who has finished in 5th place"

Posted by esquire on 12-03-04 at 09:30 AM
In the previous 8 versions of Survivor, the 5th place finisher almost always fits one of 2 descriptions.

1) A person who is not in the dominant alliance and is being pagonged (i.e., Roger in S2, Teresa in S3, Heidi in S6

2) a person who has been part of a 5 person dominant alliance and now that group has to turn on itself (i.e., Sean in S4, Ted in S5, Tom in S8)

Sean from S1 has always described himself as being part of the Tagi alliance, but he was not portrayed that way. Either way he fits into one of the above categories.

With the exception of S7, the 5th place finisher is not a person that was part of the dominant alliance but is booted when the non-dominant group stages an uprising. If you believe that we can learn from the past, then this is bad news for Julie. When we get down to 5 players, it is very difficult to get the dominant alliance to turn on itself.


Table of contents

Messages in this discussion
"RE: In past versions of Survivor, who has finished in 5th place"
Posted by JohnMc on 12-03-04 at 11:06 AM
Burton's S7 5th place boot does show the 3rd category:

3) The person who was in the dominant alliance, but one person in the alliance flops and goes with the 2 outsiders.

The 3 places to flop the game are at 9, 7, and 5.

In S9, Eliza and Julie could potentially flop the game by getting Chris to vote out Scout, then Twila. (This is not a good move for Eliza, nor Chris, but under different circumstances, that could be an excellent move.)


"RE: In past versions of Survivor, who has finished in 5th place"
Posted by esquire on 12-03-04 at 11:32 AM
>
>In S9, Eliza and Julie could
>potentially flop the game by
>getting Chris to vote out
>Scout, then Twila. (This
>is not a good move
>for Eliza, nor Chris, but
>under different circumstances, that could
>be an excellent move.

I'm not arguing whether it is a good move or not. I am just saying that survivor has been played 8 times in the past and on only 1 occasion we have seen a successful change in alliances when we were down to 5 people. This tells me that the odds are not very good that it will happen in S9 (even if it was a good move for a player)



"RE: In past versions of Survivor, who has finished in 5th place"
Posted by JohnMc on 12-03-04 at 04:37 PM
I see your point. In most games, it would have been a bad move to shift alliances.

In S1, Sean was too clueless to understand the game. But if he had, then he could have made an alliance with the guys to vote the girls out. But Rich would not have wanted a shift like that. He had to have Kelly get rid of Rudy in order to win. So Sean was destined to get the boot as either the 5th of the alliance or as the outsider.

In S2, Rodger and Lis knew they were next. Keith could have flopped, and possibly have changed the game a little. But he couldn't have done better than 2nd because Rodger and Lis were so well liked. Would not have been a good move here to flop

In S3, TBird tried to get Kim to form an all girls alliance while Kim P was still there. No one was going to give her a chance. No flop here.

In S4, it was an misfit alliance of 5, but it was Sean and Vee against Kathy, Neleh, and Paschal. Kathy was the swing vote and could have gone either way. But her only chance was to stick w/Paschal and Neleh if she wanted a chance to win. Flopping not good here.

In S6, you had Jenna and Heidi against Matt, Rob, and Butch. There was no breaking those boys up. Rob might have flopped, but it wouldn't have served him well. He flopped too many times as it was, and it wouldn't necessarily get him much farther.

And in S8, you had on Chapera 2 alliances and an odd duck. For the 2 alliances to survive, Tom had to be sacrificed. No one was willing to flop as it served their games to get farther.

With S7, we did see a flop at 7. But in S5, we should have seen a flop. Ted could have saved himself by getting Helen and Jan on his side. Had they been awake, they could have easily beaten Brian and Clay.

This time at S9 F5, it's just not a good idea for anyone to flop. If Eliza was to take Chris and Julie to boot Scout and Twila, it just wouldn't bode well with the jury. Plus you'd p1ss off Scout and Twila and lose their jury votes. The only one who would benefit would be Julie, and it's not a beneficial to Chris or Eliza.


"RE: In past versions of Survivor, who has finished in 5th place"
Posted by cuon10 on 12-05-04 at 00:14 AM
The only two that could fit are Julie and Eliza, because Eliza has never been in either alliance strong. Both sides were just using her as leverage. She was not going to be final 5 with the women:Ami,LeAnne,Julie,Scout,Twila. And originally, she was not going to be final 5 with these guys. Here is the thing though.
You almost gotta wonder if Twila and Eliza are putting on a show and have their own little alliance.

"2nd chance"
Posted by JohnMc on 12-06-04 at 01:29 PM
So, esquire, I had not originally thought to put your thoughts in terms of spoiling. If we use your theory, then here is how I would analyze the F5 boot:

1 - not in the dominant alliance

Julie

2 - part of a 5 person alliance turning on itself

n/a - it is a 4 person alliance plus Julie

3 - a flop

Scout or Twila


If anything, we do know that based on this, Eliza and Chris are safe.