The Rules

1. Please put the name of your choice for this week's bootee IN THE SUBJECT HEADING! This is really easy. Just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" and replace with your vote, i.e., Twila. This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Oh, and btw... nicknames are tougher to tally unless they're REALLY obvious without actually reading your vote.

2. Reply ONLY to this post! Curves on women are good. Curves on vote threads are bad. The first part bears repeating: I like curves on women. Y'know, I'm not sure if I've been clear enough about this. Curves on women are really great things. Y'know what else is good? A nice MLT. Mutton, lettuce, and tomato with just a little bit of mayonnaise. Mmmmm.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

If it just so happens that you wanna change your vote for whatever reason, REPLY TO YOUR ORIGINAL POST! Your new post heading should read "VOTE CHANGE: Chad (or Whoever)". That said, there is not an exception to the fact that curves on women are good.

3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD! DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please.

4. No sig pics! It was suggested that because this can be such a long thread, sig pics make it really hard to load for folks with dial-up connections. So show some respect to your slower brethren (and sistren). And really, if I can refrain from flashing the greens at 100 posters, surely you can refrain just this once from extolling IceCat's animated glory, no?

5. Have fun. I think this used to be an official rule that somehow fell by the wayside over the course of many cuts and pastes. Let it return to its former glory as an official rule.

• Scout,SherpaDave, 06:31 PM, 11-16-04
• Ami,sylvester, 06:54 PM, 11-16-04
• Eliza,ShadyLady, 06:54 PM, 11-16-04
  • Vote change - Chad,ShadyLady, 04:05 PM, 11-18-04
• Chad,kingfish, 07:07 PM, 11-16-04
• Ami,KObrien_fan, 07:15 PM, 11-16-04
  • Vote Changed- CHAD,KObrien_fan, 10:53 AM, 11-17-04
• Julie,alwaysintruble1, 07:30 PM, 11-16-04
  • Vote Change: Chad,alwaysintruble1, 06:27 PM, 11-18-04
• Ami,oncebitten, 07:38 PM, 11-16-04
• RE: Julie,Jerrethan, 07:52 PM, 11-16-04
• Chad,VerucaSalt, 07:55 PM, 11-16-04
  • Ami,RyrieRae, 08:30 PM, 11-16-04
• Chad, yes VS!,forehead, 08:54 PM, 11-16-04
• Julie,pinchy, 09:33 PM, 11-16-04
• Chris,cowboyroo, 00:53 AM, 11-17-04
• Scout,TungFong, 01:24 AM, 11-17-04
• Chad,DRONES, 05:11 AM, 11-17-04
• Chad,tinybubs, 06:51 AM, 11-17-04
• Julie,Nashter, 06:58 AM, 11-17-04
• Scout,Draco Malfoy, 08:24 AM, 11-17-04
• Chad,macamrox, 08:52 AM, 11-17-04
• scout,badger, 09:31 AM, 11-17-04
• Ami,FesterFan1, 11:19 AM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Brownroach, 11:35 AM, 11-17-04
• Scout,toddE, 11:36 AM, 11-17-04
• CHAD :-(,emydi, 11:53 AM, 11-17-04
• Scout,bdemoney, 12:12 PM, 11-17-04
• CHAD,Flowerpower, 12:23 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,nailbone, 12:29 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Owlster, 12:33 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Kiddiepool, 12:36 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Scarlett O Hara, 12:45 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Tinman, 12:52 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad is left hanging,blacknwhitedog, 01:11 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Rollover, 01:13 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Krautboy, 01:17 PM, 11-17-04
• Chris,strid333, 03:22 PM, 11-17-04
• Scout,Devious Weasel, 03:35 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Bebo, 03:48 PM, 11-17-04
• Ami,DearAbby, 05:26 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Fire Fly, 05:58 PM, 11-17-04
• RE: Scout,Dakota, 06:08 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,ssshaw, 06:20 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,Peachezz, 07:25 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,braveheart, 07:59 PM, 11-17-04
• Scout,flygirl, 10:13 PM, 11-17-04
• Scout,sorgee, 10:23 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,esquire, 10:38 PM, 11-17-04
• Re: Chad,zazzy, 10:55 PM, 11-17-04
• HEY CHAD...,Round Robin, 11:06 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad ,shakes the clown, 11:09 PM, 11-17-04
• Chad,smokedog, 00:20 AM, 11-18-04
• Hoppalong Chad,dabo, 01:03 AM, 11-18-04
• Chad,LilNik8, 01:33 AM, 11-18-04
• CHAD,westgirl98, 01:47 AM, 11-18-04
• Twila,tribephyl, 04:32 AM, 11-18-04
• Chad,PenMike, 08:57 AM, 11-18-04
• Chad,greg2557, 08:58 AM, 11-18-04
• Chad,Loree, 10:15 AM, 11-18-04
• Chad,marebear79, 11:12 AM, 11-18-04
• chad,wendyp, 11:52 AM, 11-18-04
• Chad..,MDSkinner, 02:06 PM, 11-18-04
• CHAD!,survivor_21, 03:44 PM, 11-18-04
• Chris,Cathy the Canadian, 06:10 PM, 11-18-04
• Chad,KrazyKitty, 06:53 PM, 11-18-04
• Ami,moonbaby, 07:08 PM, 11-18-04
• Chad,SurvivorBlows, 07:56 PM, 11-18-04

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 09:48 PM (EST)

Back-up boot = Julie

----, Eliza & Scout aren't going anywhere this week.

Edited to say I know Snews has now posted Chad's name for this week, I will not write his name down, sniff.

only because if she stays any longer she may actually disappear

I waited until the last...I hope we're all terribly wrong.

LAST EDITED ON 11-16-04 AT 07:38 PM (EST)

The honor of being the first to cast a Chad vote is mine. No wait, he bonds with AMI Chris Eliza to vote scout. No wait He votes with Chris, eliza Scout to vote Ami. No wait, he is just clueless, so I'll stick with Chad.

I am also going out on a limb and voting Chad to win RC. JUst a hunch based on the pics of him and the others winning RC. (Realizing that I had a leg up on STC for that line, I had to do it)

Julie for IC.

Too much power, too much strength. The pecking order has been revealed, players are getting restless and not willing to stay in your nice little pagong fest. The power is shifting. Eliza, Scout, Chad, Chris, and Twila all vote for Ami who just misses winning a crucial immunity. Leann and Julie are sitting ducks as the new alliance powers guide the next several votes.

You'll be able to spend some quality time with Sarge all alone for the next few days til one of your buddies comes to join you.

KO

Sorry Emy, I hate to say it, but Chad is gone this week.

Eliza, feeling threatened and doing the 4-4 tie numbers, goes to Chad and Chris willing to vote with them if they go after Julie, who has become too close to Ami and Leann, leaving her out. Twila gets to take revenge for Julie's lie about the guys, and Scout goes along for the ride.
(OK the 3rd vote in a row for Julie, just hoping to be right one of these times.)

Alt (amd more likely): Ami

Although I like his reasoning for a Scout departure this week, I'm jumping in the wagon Shakes is driving, that he actually voted this week should tell us all we need.

I am crossing my fingers. oh please oh please

I'm gonna trust the boot list that I found ;)

LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 08:23 AM (EST)

Too bad However the teasers are heavy into telling us the women wage war amongst themselves when the simplicity of this week's title deems otherwise. Next week's title, Surprise and Surprise again seems more ripe for such a huge event of a woman or women turning on another woman.

Chad was deemed next in the pecking order even to Scout who has Eliza ready and waiting on her radar. There is no reason to believe the women will not vote out another man. Chad unfortunately sealed his fate by voting for Julie as opposed to Chris who apparently can manipulate women better than he thinks.

While Ami is appearing to be in grave danger, there has been nothing conclusive to really suggest this other than broken sentences and choppy footage. What has been shown consistently is woman power and I don't see any reason to think it would stop now; not when there are still TWO men left on the island.

Surprise!!!!!!!!!! Family Reward next week
Surprise Again!!!!!!!!!!! The women start turning on each other, even though there is still ONE man left and Ami who isn't used to being second behind a man will then be able to be booted at some point because she will finish second behind ONE man but let's take care of her troops before her shall we ?

ETA: forehead I always can count on you to make this place wonderful - sink or swim

Because Chad is going to win

LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 05:31 PM (EST)

What VerucaSalt said!

Seriously, VS is the Queen of editing analysis (or should that be Queen of Editing Diagnosis - QED, sorry couldn't help myself). As I'm sure everyone is lurking/posting everywhere, it goes without saying that there's not a single thread out there that is so insightful in analyzing long term what EPMB is trying to tell as VS's thread here at SB.

We're at 8. 8 is not the time to make a power move. Power moves work at 9, 7, 5, you get what I'm trying to say here...

No matter that it would be logical for Scout/Twila/Eliza to align with Chris/Chad to vote out Ami (or Leann if Ami has II), rarely do players make logical moves in this game. In fact, I think the only one to make a logical move is Chris to vote out Chad, just like he voted out Sarge last ep.

Next week we're indeed in for a double surprise as Chris gets to stay as the lone, single guy who will no longer be on the women's radar screen (hey the guy has foot trouble, he's not a threat - yes, dream on ladies).

Sarge spilled the beans: what could work for the men is to split up and individually work your way into a female sub-alliance. Going with a block of two possible IC threats is the last any of the women would want to align with. On the other hand, if Chris does a nice acting job this ep of being a lousy IC contender and distance himself from Chad, he could do exactly what will lead him to have his 50 lbs weight loss spoiler (but he needs to do it alone).

forehead

PS Aside for next week: For all those people out there saying Ami doesn't vote a woman out when there are still men available: Ami voted out Lisa to keep Rory for another week. Say no more. Quod Erat Demonstrandum (need to type in full as QED now refers to something, oops, sorry, someone else).

ETA: From a survivor game playing perspective, I would be very pleased with TDT's new final 3 (Chris, Eliza, Ami) - very deserving. Let's see how it goes down.

ETA2: Hi TungFong

ETA3: VS, sink or swim, sounds like a good poof motto

She and Leann should have played down the Reward...

Taking posts from several people, I think I've gone back and forth on almost every one this week.

I don't recall seeing where Chad was next on the ladies' chopping block. Maybe the inspirational story behind Chad is going to be that everyone underestimated him and he's going to go on an immunity run starting this episode, since we see him as he is "hanging on for dear life".

With the title of the next episode being "Surprise..and surprise again" it looks as if there may yet still be another pagonging this week.

Chris stated early on that he can manipulate men easily but not women. Well, he gives it his all and we get to see how it almost works.

The only spoiler I've seen about Chris staying is one weight loss spoiler that could possibly be unfounded. No firm source.

When reading through the website clues, the following jumped out at me, as a sneaky trick MB might use:

A surreal Reward drives one Survivor to overindulge and pay for it later.

We know Chris is the one who overindulges but he doesn't only pay for it by getting sick, he pays for it by losing immunity due to his sickness and getting the boot.

LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 01:30 AM (EST)

Just a feeling her story is coming to an end...

Alternate: Chad

forehead, I'll second to the Chris/Eliza/Ami final 3. Hope I'm not the only one here rooting for Ami to at least reach the final 4. She's one of the most interesting characters for this season.

alternate is Scout.

Gotta go with KrautBoy and Shakes this week on their analysis. After being hidden last week, Chad seems to be prominent in the web promos which would support the OFG theory also.

Before the season started JP said that this season would be inspirational, which I thought was a clue Chad would make the final 3. Apparently not, he is toast.

LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 07:39 AM (EST)

Going with Ami wins immunity. (Surprise!) and winning again in Week 11 (surprise again!) Pecking order is Ami, (but she wins immunity ) Julie, Leann. I am also accepting Snewser is right with Leann boot week 11.

I love ya, but it's time for you to go. The women can lose 1 woman and still have the numbers.

The women's alliance will begin to self-destruct this week, but it won't happen in time to save Chad.

actually, i think chad's leaving, but i don't have the heart to write his name down.

1) Foreshadowing - For weeks there have been hints at the women's alliance crumbling prematurely, and for weeks it hasn't happened. This time it's different. We know Scout is jumping to the men, and likely taking Twila with her. Every season MB gives us a jury boot. This one is it.

2) Jeff Probst's quote - "What made the last half of the show is it was anybody's game, hardcore alliances that just splintered." Guess what, it's the second half of the game. Time for some splintering. If Scout goes, it's not true splintering, as the core of the women's alliance remains intact (Ami/Leeann/Julie/Eliza), and the men and floater Twila are on the outside looking in. If it smells like Pagonging from there, it probably is. It just doesn't wash. If Ami survives, is it really "anybody's game"? Really?

3) Leeann - I just can't fathom a Leeann boot in E11 if Scout or Chad or anyone not named "Ami" goes this week. Even if the women turn on each other after Scout or Chad go, would Leeann be the first, second, or even third choice? I don't think so.

4) Eliza, the Wild Card - What we know about E10: We know there will be talk about voting out the "most useless" tribe mate. We know Scout wants Ami out. We know Chris says "if you question a woman's ability, she'll snap your neck". Outside of E10, we know there's been a lot of talk about Eliza's worth. We also know that Chris has a history of being persuasive. It's not a huge leap to infer that Chris has a little chat with Eliza about her perceived "worth" within the women's alliance. It's also not a stretch to think Eliza is paranoid enough to think her days are numbered with Ami's crew.

5) Another spin on the "Surprise" front. If it's not a replay of the double family visit from S5, it could be that the first "Surprise" is registered by the 3 remaining women regarding Eliza's defection, with the second being your standard family visit. Honestly, how much bigger of a surprise could there be than Eliza voting with Scout?

If it's not Ami, it will be Scout. I'm sure of that. It just makes more sense to me that it's Ami who goes this week.

Fester

There are plausible scenarios for only Chad, Scout or Twila to go this week, imo. So it's time to pick one...

I never post in this thread, but this week is very interesting. I enjoyed Shakes' analysis and ultimately agree with it. I think Scout, Chad and Ami are the only three in danger.

Ami does make sense, and Eliza has shown herself to be playing the game. But even though she's a player, I think the Scout-Eliza antipathy will prevent Eliza from allying herself with Scout to vote out Ami. So that leaves either Scout or Chad.

I vote Scout because I can see Eliza jumping to a new alliance if Scout is gone.

ps. I doubt TDT's final 3 is credible, but I would love it to be true, they would be the most deserving final 3 since Borneo. (and Rudy wasn't really that deserving, IMO)

if I can, I’m going to burn every one of them. Just let them open the door. This is for you, not against you.

GO CHRIS!!!

LAST EDITED ON 11-17-04 AT 12:14 PM (EST)

I think Scout might get herself voted out by trying to turn others against Ami. And since my only other alternative right now is Chad I am writing Scout's name down.......since I can't bear to think Chad might be the one to leave this week.

Oh, and here's to hoping Fester's logic is correct and Ami gets the old heave-ho this week!

Frankly, I solidly admire Chad for playing the game as well, or better than most non-handicapped people. He was a force to be reckoned with, and he never complained. I wish him well, and may he have a long and happy life.

I'm voting for him as Veruca and Shakes have been screaming his name all week....and it sounds right to me.

Women's alliance crumbling? I think not.

The Pagonging continues. This week it's Chad.

One more pagong. Then the tables will turn...

Chad ... you are Pagonged With the Wind this week!

Scarlett

Go Chris!

see ya!

Sometimes you must sacrifice a part to save the body.
Chad, you are removed so Chris may continue!

Verucasalt was brilliant and unwaivering in her, now legendary, editing analysis this week. Shakes was a bit less graceful in his approach, but nonetheless convincing. Throw in a nod from Brownroach, Flowerpower and Scarlet and that pretty much wraps it up for me...

Great spoiling and speculating by all! This was a fun week

Krautboy

I Would Do Anything For Love
(... But I Won't Do That)

Using Fester's back-up logic.

CBS is just trying to build drama where there's none by suggesting that the women's alliance is going to crumble...this week.

because third time is charm, and she didn't go last week or the week before when I guessed she would ... oh, and because she deserves to go!

Too bad.....we really didn't get a chance to know him very well! The girls did but 'so what', he's a male so it's time to go!

I wasn't going to vote, although I put the target on Scout on another thread. But since Shakes says Scout could be the one to go, I figured there's more to my decision that wishful thinking.

I'm torn between Chris and Chad, but I think Chad will go for two reasons.

1. Nobody wants to face him in the F2 and now is probably the best time to get rid of him.

2. Chad is much more of a physical threat than Chris will ever be.

So there you go. Chad is gone.

I did so want to see Ami leave, but how can I ignore the expertise who are naysayers to Ami Boot.

I even thought Chad may win immunity because he looks like he is going into a 'zone' there on the pole. Can't have it both ways though.

It's just tried and true predictable that the losing tribe members go first after the merge...so it's Chad this week and I think an immunity next week will save Chris. By then he will have a solid allaince with Twila to carry him to the final two.
Just speculation.

Well, I can hope, can't I??

is out.

Let the pagonging continue. I see no logical scenario for the gals to vote out one of themselves

Mangonging continues... too bad, so sad.

...it's time for you to go!

I'm not only on the bandwagon, I'm driving it.

Thanks to a very well laid out case in another thread...

With Chris's knife firmly in his back.

But I really wish it was Ami. This pro woman thing is getting on my nerves...and I'm a woman.

But Oh I wish it was ami!!! gotta go with my shakes!

I know I'm going against the grain with this pick.
And MOST likely I would be wrong.
But I feel a sense of editing which is skewing towards the "most spiritual growth" ends up as the sole survivor.

This season is all about the spirituality.
In that respect my feeling of those that are safe are: Scout, Chad, Ami and to a degree Leann.

On the other hand we have Julie, Eliza, Chris and Twila who are just along for the experience and personal growth.

It sucks being a believer in a Leann/Chad F2 and finding that both are supposed to go in the next 2 weeks. I'm closing my eyes and crossing my fingers.

tribe

Going with the flow

Just riding the wagon

I haven't been paying attention this last week. I think I am getting really bored with this season. But this seems to be the popular choice.

My fingers want to type A-M-I but my head orders them to type
C-H-A-D. So, so sad!

Here's to Chris and beating the pagonging odds!

Marebear79

Thinking all the questions about the woman alliance is misdirection ~ they will bicker but stay together one more week

but I wish it were someone else.

Can
He
Avoid
Disaster?

umm.....NO! too bad though cause I kinda liked him.

Just based on editing - Chris's story ark is over, Chad's hasn't even begun.

Though Twila may have said she wished she sided more with the guys, she still voted with the girls. She was with them then. She is very hard to read due to the editing. I think this may be the last time she plays along with Ami's crew. Then its everyone for themselves and she will probably team with Chris.

My votes seem to be one week ahead, so why break the trend?