LAST EDITED ON 10-30-04 AT 02:09 AM (EST)

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

NEW YASUR TRIBE

..............EP1….EP2….EP3….EP4….EP5….EP6….EP7….TOTAL

Rory………....3……..2……..1.…….6..……2………6…….7………27
Scout.……….3…….1.……..0.…….3..……0………1……..1……….9
Leeann…..….3.…….1.……..1….…2..……1……...2…….0………10
Ami..………...1.…….1…..…..0……1…..…5………1…….2………11
Eliza……….…6…….3.……..3..…….5……..2………0……2………21
Lisa…………..1…….0..……..1.…….2..……1……...3(boot)
Travis……….3..…..2..…….0….….2..……4(boot)
Mia…………...3…….1.……..4(Boot)
Dolly.…………1…….4(Boot)

Rory continued in his role of narrator for the new Yasur tribe, as his vulnerability continued to be the main story at Yasur.

The gradual development of Scout, Leann and Ami continued, based on their low confessional counts, it appears their stories will be told later in the game. Recently we have seen more development of Ami’s negative side.

Scout and Leann are flying lowest under the radar.

NEW LOPEVI TRIBE

.............EP1….EP2….EP3….EP4….EP5….EP6….EP7….TOTAL

Twila……….2.…….2……..2………1……..1……..4……..2………14
Julie…………1…….1……..0……….2 …….1…….3……..2………10
Chris……….4……..2……..0………2..…..0…….1……..1……….10
Chad………..2……..0.…….0..…….1..……1…….1……..3……….8
Lea………….4……..0…….2……….2..……2…….5…….2.………17
John K..…….1.…….0…….4………1.…….2…….0…….6(boot)
Brady…………4……..0……..0………5(Boot)
John P….……2……..1.…….4(Boot)
Brooke………5(Boot)

John K. got the expected confessional spike, typical of the boot episode after being “hidden” in the previous episode.

Lea has emerged as the primary narrator of the New Lopevi, since Rory was swapped to New Yasurin EP5, while Twila has added commentary about the minority perspective.

Chris has slipped under the radar since the swap in EP5

ANALYSIS

Under the Radar:

The men are in control at New Lopevi. Chris and Chad have the lowest confessional counts and therefore the furthest to go in terms of character development.

The women dominate the New Yasur and again the lowest confessional counts are associated with those who appear to be going the furthest...Scout, Leann and Ami. Chad and Ami are still positioned to go far.

This group’s low confessional count indicates there is still plenty of time for their character development. They are probably safe well into the game.

Narrators:

Lea and Rory have become the primary narrators. As such they will continue at least until the merge.

Boot Pattern:

Looking at the confessional counts of the bootees so far, we see a pattern …The bootee has had a spike in the number confessionals during their boot episode. In addition notice that the bootee has been somewhat “hidden” by the confessional editing in the episode prior to their boot.

Conclusions::

Based on confessional count, four contestants have had the most development going into the merge. Rory, Eliza, Twila and Lea. These are the contestants whose story is closer to being complete. After Julie, the first member of the jury will most likely come from this group.

During EP8 we can expect a spike in Julie’s confessionals. The previews indicate she will be featured before she is voted out.

While Rory, Twila and Lea have all had a spike in confessionals during the last two episodes, look for the first jury member to be “hidden” during EP8 leading up to their boot in EP9.

Krautboy

• RE: Confessional Analysis Update,thetick, 02:07 AM, 10-30-04
• RE: Confessional Analysis Update,Flowerpower, 07:45 AM, 10-30-04
• RE: Confessional Analysis Update,Sam Buru, 05:46 PM, 10-30-04
• RE: Confessional Analysis Update,KLicK, 08:18 PM, 10-30-04
• RE: Confessional Analysis Update,Capn2patch, 08:51 PM, 10-30-04
  • RE: Confessional Analysis Update,Krautboy, 03:32 AM, 10-31-04

i was really hoping you'd do one of these last week

Yes, your confessional count analysis was missed last week, while greatly appreciated this week! This really is getting facinating. I will pay particular attention to Rory, Lea, and Twila.

If Twila votes with the guys this merge episode, I certainly could see her as a big target postmerge. Rory, I think has made alot of enemies along the way, and will not be long for the show! Lea, as a dominant, strong, leader of Lopevi is a marked man as the leaders always risk a target on their backs. If Chris wins immunity challenges, I'd say the next best pick would be Lea. It all makes sense, let's see how it plays out!

Thanks, KB!

This is probably one of the best analysis tool we have.

Great Job Krautboy.

I used to do a similar tally at SA. One thing I noticed is that the "narrator makes it to the merge" is usually true, but that doesn't imply they make the jury. Andrew (most recently) was the major narrator during the first half of S7.

Rory is getting a similar pattern (I'll go look through the archives to see if I can find Andrew's).

Thank you KB. Agree with Sam Buru, you've developped an amazing analysis tool that allows you to focus your perspective and draw broad conclusions that are not speculative.

I have a comment, there is a difference in the type of confessionals the Survivors have. One is the narrator type of confessional where the speaker recaps recent events. Two would be express character development. The third would be a personal defense/confrontation confessional.

Through the three types I've mentioned above, how would you classify Rory / Lea / Twila / Eliza confessionals, and do you think that a survivor with a not necessarily high confessional count but with a high defense confessional count be a high risk boot? Don't want to complicate my post but vice/versa could be applicable as well, high confessional count but low defense conf.

Rory is my new Hero

C2P: Your absolutely correct that the their is a big difference between confessionals...a lot can be learned by analyzing the types, but it also gets very complicated to track it.

Corvis is actually the father of Confessional Analysis and he used to do a much more thorough analysis that he posted on the ACME public site.

I just picked up where he left off. The credit for originally developing the confessional analysis goes to him.

I enjoy looking at the patterns, but the confessional count as I present it is really just a broad generalization. As you point out, many other factors need to be considered as well to arrive at the correct conclusions...

Krautboy