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Original Message
"when does JK get voted out?"
Posted by esquire on 10-19-04 at 00:17 AM
Most people seem to be willing to believe Snewser when he tells us that the next 3 bootees will be Julie, Lisa and JK (at least I believe him for whatever that is worth). From the prior 8 versions of Survivor we know that the first episode after the merger, the dominant alliance generally attempts to vote out the strongest member of the weaker alliance (unless the strongest member wins immunity and then they voet out the 2nd strongest). In Africa, the dominant tribe was so cocky they voted out the strongest member of their own alliance.

I can't believe anyone looks at Julie or Lisa as a strong threat to do anything. Of the next 3 bootees, the only one that makes sense to be the first one booted out after the merge is JK. That leads me to doubt that he will be booted out htis week

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Messages in this discussion
"RE: when does JK get voted out?"
Posted by bobscure on 10-19-04 at 00:39 AM
Ignoring the Snewser list and going by face time alone, Lisa this week, JK next week, JB the week after. I doubt they'll want to take a chance JK will make the merge and win individual immunities.

Also, I think a JK boot would set up Lopevi for another IC loss and that's when Julie goes. If that's the order there's nobody left in JB's alliance other than Eliza at the merge so she's an easy boot pic that week.....for me at least.

"but..."
Posted by shakes the clown on 10-19-04 at 01:17 AM
>Ignoring the Snewser list and going
>by face time alone, Lisa
>this week, JK next week,
>JB the week after.


...you forget the fact that JB will get a ton of face time this week, which if you are going with the face time theory, easily sets her up for a boot next week.



So don't take the simple fact that I think Shakes is godlike to mean that I think he isn't an ass. -Samiam 10/12/04

"RE: but..."
Posted by bobscure on 10-19-04 at 01:47 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-19-04 AT 02:07 AM (EST)

I'm not forgetting that. I'm remembering that nekkid women=ratings. She may go this week or next, I doth not have ESP. I do know Rory's getting a ton of face time because his speech is a story just like Julie's sunbathing but we don't expect him to be voted out, do we? What I'm more curious about is that given the likelihood that JB would draw more viewers than Rory's speech, why are more vidcaps dedicated to Rory's speech and the reaction to same? I believe it's because his speech, however great it may be, plays an integral role in who is voted out this week.

ETA: Sorry, I was trying to do 2 things at once as usual. The reason I'm blithely ignoring Snewsers boot list is that I painfully remember the seemingly endless previews for Heidi and Jenna's strip. They weren't about to be booted. It was just about the ratings. I'm trying to be a somewhat objective average viewer. From past seasons we know that being naked is good and having somebody young and strong on your tribe is good unless you're playing for individual immunity and that to the average viewer a JK boot might be something of a surprise *this week*, relatively far from the merge and I'd think they'd play it up as such. Or perhaps not....

"RE: but..."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 10-19-04 at 03:50 AM
That's true, but Jenna and Heidi had already accumulated a normal amount of face time over the previous episodes. In this case, we've got someone in Julie who have had ZERO face time before being exposed (sorry!) in this episode.



©Slice & Dice Chop Shop 2004
Scratch and sniff
"RE: but..."
Posted by pax on 10-19-04 at 04:00 AM
before we get too carried away on face time, let me just remind you that this was the reason why no one thought Zoe would be booted on the Marquesas. sometimes, people just aren't interesting
"RE: but..."
Posted by Loree on 10-19-04 at 09:32 AM
In Julie's case I think it is more like body time than face time.
"RE: but..."
Posted by pax on 10-19-04 at 11:14 AM
Sometimes pixelization is a good thing, as during the challenge where the guys took off their undies in sympathy with That Quitter (i refuse to say his name) in Panama, when Scout lost her top this season or anytime Richard's been on. But for moments like these and Heidi/Jenna, they should put out a video of Survivor's Most Exposed Moments.

I wonder, considering the 24-hour cameras, if there's a clause in the contracts that says CBS can't market non-pixelized nudity? There must be a lot of it in the can somewhere. Wonder if some cameraman or editor may have snuck home a few choice cuts..

"RE: but..."
Posted by RyrieRae on 10-20-04 at 08:19 PM
I don't thin there is a clause, b/c the S1 DVD (not the full season, but the truncated video) that came out, showed an unedited Rich and Greg Heiny.
"no guarantee on merge at 10"
Posted by cowboyroo on 10-19-04 at 01:50 AM
There's no guarantee that the tribes will be merging at 10 members each. A possible scenario could be Lisa going this week, John K going next week when Lopevi are up one, then Julie going the following week if there is not a merge at 10, or like Thailand a "fake" merge where the tribes just reside together.

Someone also stated that Julie is unlikely to go this week due to the fact that she hasn't had much face time, and her "flirt" strategy. Well, that could just go with the story. She couldn't use it until now.

I'd say of the three, to me John K is the least likely boot this week. Personally I'm 60% Julie 30% Lisa and 10% John K at the moment.

"RE: when does JK get voted out?"
Posted by cowboyroo on 10-19-04 at 02:14 AM
I also think the CBS Misdirection about fuel to an alliance could be Sarge and John K. We saw John K asked if he was going to vote with the majority when Brady was voted out. We saw him a lot happier with the rest of the tribe this past episode. He managed to fit in even though knowing he was a sitting duck. With Bubba gone, the men may ask him to replace Bubba as the 5th in their alliance. This would be the smart thing to do. There is NO guarantee that Julie or Twilla would stay with them come merge, and John may think at Final 5 he has the best chance of immunity to make it to F2.
"RE: when does JK get voted out?"
Posted by pax on 10-19-04 at 03:43 AM
Maybe JK was happy because Lea/Chris told him that the women will get booted before him.

(greetings to the forum; i'm a regular at surviiivor but a newbie here)

"RE: when does JK get voted out?"
Posted by survivor_21 on 10-20-04 at 10:17 PM
Snewser has his picks up:
ep. 6 = Lisa
ep. 7 = JK
ep. 8 = Julie

Thats enough for me to believe it, even if everyone was wrong last week.

"RE: when does JK get voted out?"
Posted by memacmur on 10-21-04 at 04:35 PM
I really think Snewser should be wrong, but clearly there is a lack of intelligence among the men this year, so it is possible.

I think Lisa is a given, just based on the fact that the promo's really make it look like Rory feels he is in trouble and trying to save his bacon. Meanwhile, the other beach is just full of naked Julies. Given the emphasis (only one tribe appears concerned about TC), I initially thought we were seeing Rory saving his bacon for this week (and making me happy by booting Lisa), Julie being set up for the boot next week despite her titillating antics and coinciding with a sudden spike in airtime, and JK going right before/after the merge, as no one left wants him kicking their geriatric butt in the Individual Immunity competetions.

The only reason I see for offing JK before Julie is fear of the merge. And even then, why weaken the number of men when they will see Bubba has been sent packing?

Just as long as 'liza stays and Lisa goes soon, I'll be happy.

MEmacmur