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Original Message
"Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by RyrieRae on 04-30-04 at 10:11 AM
There are many many threads right now that include discussions about who will take who if they win the final Immunity Challenge. Let's consolidate ideas on one thread and discuss a) what the Immunity Challenge will be, b) what three do we expect to be playing, c)how do each of the contestants view the others in relation to who would be the better F2 opponent

a) it will be an endurance challenge. It always is.

b) Jenna, Rob, and Amber seem to be the favs in this category.

c) Jenna might pull this one out. Remember Shii-Ann? Desperation can pull you a long way when you are on the chopping bock. But the question is: Does Jenna feel she is on the chopping block?

If Jenna does win FIC, I believe she will take Rob. In her opinion, he has stabbed people in the back and she is also heeding Shii-Ann's warning that Amber will win. What she fails to see is that everyone hates her and is annoyed by her gameplay.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by bdemoney on 04-30-04 at 10:51 AM
Continuing with this line of thought I would like to address a couple things about a final two speculation.

I would say that the majority of us agree it will be Rob, Amber and Jenna in the final three. Based on this fact we will be faced with three possible pairings:

Rob/Amber Rob/Jenna Amber/Jenna

Of the above pairings who do we see getting the jury votes? For instance I think of Rob/Jenna, Rob would win. I even think this would be true if Rob and Amber are the final two.

Even though Rob has stabbed many of the jurors in the back I think people realize he truly played the game instead of just riding coattails or flying under the radar. Something they may think applies to either Jenna or Amber.

Now if the final two is Amber and Jenna I am not as certain as to which of them would receive the most jury votes. Although I would think Amber would have a better chance of gaining more votes than Jenna based on less people liking Jenna.

As for the immunity challenge I think Jenna will win the endurance challenge as she will know she has to win in order to get to the final two.

If this is the case, will she take Rob or Amber with her to the final two? I believe there could be a case made for either.

She may take Rob believing he has made too many enemies to win. Or she may take Amber believing she has a better chance of winning against her since they played a more similar game.

I would love to hear people's thoughts on who they believe the final two will be and who they think will receive the most votes.

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-30-04 at 11:06 AM
Okay, I'll bite! I think right now that Rupert has to be Romber's biggest concern, he's a BIG challenge threat, and could ruin their strategy. But, I think this week Rupert will win IC, therefore leaving Romber's choice of Tommy or Jenna. I think it will be Tom that goes before Bossy Jenna.

Final four will be an IC win for Romber...one of them will win and they'll vote out Rupert. I can not see Jenna winning an IC, maybe an endurance one, but not a physical one, nor even a mental one. Rupert will go down and yes, he'll be an angry mofo, no surprise there. I do think there is an outside chance that this could be a tie vote, with Jenna and Rupert voting for Rob, and Romber voting for Rupert...if it's a tie, Rupert goes, as he has more votes cast against him than Rob.

So final three....I could see Jenna winning an endurance challenge, if she does, I think she'll choose Robfadda, as she feels that he'll be the most hated of the two, and therefore, perhaps she could win. Regardless of who she chooses though, Rob or Amber, I think she'll LOSE. Rob or Amber could BOTH beat Jenna.

IF either of Romber win the last IC, I still think that they will choose each other. Granted, Amber had Shii devil fooled with the "he trusts me, but I can do what I want with him" speech, but I think she just said that to save Rob. I think that Amber will hold true to her commitment with Rob, she'll definately choose Rob over Jenna if she wins final IC.(Sure, it's debatable, it's just my opinion.)

If Rob wins the final IC, he too will choose Amber. I think if Rob and Amber are the final 2, Rob will win.....as he's played the game overtly, despite what all the postgame interviews may be saying, knife in the back or not. FWIW, my 2 cents.

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by emydi on 04-30-04 at 11:55 AM
It will be a Romber/Jenna F3

As far as the F3 immunity, I think it will be Jenna because she has more to fight for (two little girls at home as opposed to elective surgery for Amber and more pizza and beer for Rob)


These are my thoughts on the F2 and possible jury votes (posted in Shakes' thread also-sorry for improper etiquette but it belongs here)

1. Jenna wins IC she picks Rob to go with her

Jenna cant win against green eyed Amber.


2. Rob wins IC he's taking his sweethaht Amber

Rob has a less chance to win over Jenna bc of the 3 Knives in back already--I know, I know, Rob could win a respect vote-but for this jury its not about respect its personal and LKA will not pick Rob vs. Jenna, no matter how obnoxious Jenna is)Rupert will be her 4th vote, Rob is going to knife Rupert too.

3. Amber wins IC--surprise--SHE TAKES JENNA-screws Rob
(both figuratively and ...)


JURY VOTES-JENNA V. AMBER

Lex: Jenna 75% chance
Kathy: Jenna 100%
Alicia: Amber 100%
Shii: Amber 100%
Tom: Amber 100%
Rupert: Jenna 75%
Rob: Amber 99%


Amber wins 4-3 at worst 6-1 at best

JURY VOTES-JENNA V. ROB

Lex: Jenna 66 2/3%
Kathy: Jenna 75%
Alicia: Jenna 50%
Shii: Rob 100%
Tom: Rob 100%
Rupert: Jenna 80%
Amber: Rob 100%

This is the shakiest vote because of the LKA talk of Knives in back vs. voting for the person who played. These % may change depending on how Rupert is taken out.

Jenna has no chance against Amber--she has to take Rob

JURY VOTES-AMBER V. ROB

Lex: Rob 66 2/3%(wouldnt that be the sweetest irony-Lex is the deciding vote)
Kathy: Rob 85% (remember the lie Amber told)
Alicia: Amber 100%
Shii: Amber 100%
Tom: Rob 95%
Rupert: Rob 75% (not sure about this-depends on how Rupert is taken out)
Jenna: Amber 95%


Rob 4-3 or Amber 4-3 I think this would be the most interesting jury vote of them all!!!!


Jenna only has a chance over Rob to win. Rob has a better
chance over Amber. Amber has the better chance over
Jenna. Very interesting...


emydi

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by bdemoney on 04-30-04 at 12:35 PM
Emydi, Great breakdown of your thoughts. I agree with a lot of what you wrote. Just one question....why do you feel Jenna would be 95% likely to vote for Amber over Rob? Just curious as to your reasoning.

I could see both she and Rupert being quite torn as to who to vote for between Romber. I would think a lot of their decision would depend on how they were voted out of the game.

I could see Rupert voting for Amber over Rob and could see Jenna voting for Rob over Amber. My reasoning for this is that I feel Rupert will probably hold Rob responsible for voting him out and he seems to like women much better than men in general. Look at who he took on his reward trip this season and who his best pals were in season 7.

As for Jenna she may feel Rob played a much better game than Amber and vote for him. Just wanted to get your reasoning behind these two (possible) votes. Thanks!

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by emydi on 04-30-04 at 01:02 PM
bde$,

Those were tough, I probably should lower the % for Jenna's vote for Amber. I just think Jenna has a closer relationship with Amber (it's a girl thing) But I think Amber is taking Jenna for a ride.

BTW, if Jenna does pull out the win, she owes Shii a huge debt of gratitude for pointing out the threat of Amber.

I agree also about Rupert. Right now, I give it to Rob as a respect vote--gave him the burger and coke, and also trying to get in with the "Cool guys." But, he will give his vote to Amber if Rob orchestrates his ouster.

SO if its a Romber F2, Jupert will most likely be the deciding duo. I still want it to be LEx though. I loves me some irony.

BTW, I am still wondering about Rupert's teeth. Something was missing on the S7 finale. Does Rupert hurt himself while fishing? in a challenge? slipping while throwing rob to the SHaahks? being subdued by 5 large men with a straight jacket at F4 TC after going crazy after being booted?

emydi

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by bdemoney on 04-30-04 at 01:21 PM
Thanks Emydi, I appreciate your thoughts.

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 11:11 AM
As for the immunity challenge I think Jenna will win the endurance challenge as she will know she has to win in order to get to the final two.

But my guess is Amber will be feeling the same way, after Shii Ann spotlighted her last night.


"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by butthunder on 04-30-04 at 11:38 AM
If, at the final four, Rob wins immunity, wouldn't Rupert and Jenna vote Amber and Rob and Amber vote Rupert thus creating a 2-2 tie and with Amber having more previous votes than Rupert Amber would be gone?
I wonder since Rob realizes he has not received any votes, if he would give his immunity over to Amber.
"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 04-30-04 at 12:00 PM
But giving away immunity necklace there is no guarantee that it would be previous votes cast against as the tie breaker. It may not be the purple rock, but very likely a different method of splitting the tie. If Rob doesn't know for sure, I'm not positive he would give it away.
"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by FSUGUY on 04-30-04 at 12:13 PM
what if......
say a male gets booted this week....we are now at 2 males and 2 females.....

2 immunity necklaces???? that would be wild twist....

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by babalouie on 04-30-04 at 01:33 PM
How about the jury decide what the last challenge will be? They could weight it to their favorite.....
"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by Dregar on 04-30-04 at 01:34 PM
Don't kill the messenger, but I keep finding this old stuff and am not sure where it originated..here it is below..
>
>
- Tom is very loved- Rob wins immunity and takes Amber- Tom is livid
Amber and Rob M final 2
I do not know final vote- Rob is hated because of his cockiness and backstabbing- Rob also promised on his life he would not betray Tom-
Amber is not just flying under the radar during allstars- she is not well like either-
I really think it might be closer vote than people would think it would be- I think the players that would vote based on gameplay were booted before Jury- BUT here is the predicted upset- I think Rob's Jury performance is one of the best, if not the best ever- he specifically talks about how great the booted members are; Amber does not do as well- although Rob is hated i think he wins a close vote (just my opinion) He explains in jury every step of every decision
>
>
>


Again could be some bogus list...I just pasted the end of it, but it gives a boot order with most correct and a quick explanation of A$$' relationships on the island and how and why they were booted..I can post the whole thing but would rather take the professionals opinions to see if it's worth wasting space in this thread..

"Sleek 28 hoax"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 03:18 PM
That came from the Sleek 28 posts. The list was a hoax, he admitted it, it's a dead issue.

Please don't post the whole thing again, anywhere, unless you want a certain clown to appear.



"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by JohnMc on 04-30-04 at 03:48 PM
2 immunity necklaces at F4 and F3 would be totally cool. For example, if Jenna and Rupert won, then they would have to boot Rob or Amber. Same if Rob and Amber won. But if, say, Amber and Jenna won immunity, then they would have to decide to boot Rob or Rupert (I see Rupert going in that situation). And if Rupert and Rob won immunity... well, let's just draw this out

Amber and Rob win immunity - Rupert boot
Amber and Jenna - Rupert boot
Amber and Rupert - Jenna boot
Rob and Jenna - Rupert boot
Rob and Rupert - Jenna boot
Jenna and Rupert - Rob boot

Looks like Rupert's chances of a boot in this double immunity scenario are pretty high, and Amber's are nil!

What this really means, though, is that Rupert and Jenna need to team up with Tom to get rid of one of Romber now if they want to assure themself a F2 slot.

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by zombiebaby on 04-30-04 at 01:26 PM
Are the contestants given a rule book before they start the game with regards to a tied TC?

Or is that considered a "twist" that players are warned could change every season?

"RE: Final Immunity Challenge Speculation"
Posted by TanNymph on 04-30-04 at 02:11 PM
In Africa, didn't they use some type of trivia quiz to break a tie vote. This was when the old group voted Lindsey and the young group voted Carl. Carl lost.
"If there is a tie vote along the way..."
Posted by memacmur on 04-30-04 at 03:37 PM
Let me throw in some speculation as to how Rupert could get booted, setting up a Romber/Jenna final 3 showdown for immunity...

Suppose Tom gets voted out next week (Rupert wins immunity). Our final four is now our power pairs. Not knowing who will get the votes, Jenna and Rupert both vote Romber, Romber both vote Rupert.

They then do the normally useless 'vote again' and if nothing changes, we threaten you with some form of tiebreaker. Jenna, sneaky little wench that she is, actually changes her vote, and Rupert is ousted and betrayed by his one trusted alliance partner! <Insert angry mofo comments here>

That's almost how I see it happening...

MEmacmur

"RE: If there is a tie vote along the way..."
Posted by Loree on 04-30-04 at 05:41 PM
In a final 4 if Rob or Amber won immunity. They could go to Jenna and tell her to vote with them against Rupert or they will target her and she will be in a tie and may lose it and go herself. To avoid being voted against she votes against Rupert.
"RE: If there is a tie vote along the way..."
Posted by RyrieRae on 05-01-04 at 09:25 AM
YES! I totally believe that Jenna will jump the RMS Rupert if the F4 is her, Rupe and Romber. But I can't see Rupert doing the same to Jenna.
"RE: If there is a tie vote along the way..."
Posted by bris on 05-01-04 at 11:16 AM
I think we are wrong i hvae heard in lots of places that either TOm or Rupert leave really pissed off at Rob. I last heard it was Rupert. If Jenna votes him off he would get mad at Jenna not Rob. So i think that its a tie 2 Rob and 2 Rupert Amber has immunity and Rob tells Jenna he will take her to final 2 and she votes off Rupert. Rupert leaves pissed at Rob. Jenna/ Rob and Amber final immunity. Amber loses first so Jenna thinks she is safe. Jenna then give the immunity to Rob so he can make the last vote off. He lies and votes off Jenna. Rob and Amber final 2
Jury votes
LEX- Amber
KATHY- Rob
ALICIA- Amber
SHII ANN- Amber
TOM- Rob
RUPERT- Amber
JENNA- Amber
Amber wins and even if Lexs votes Rob Amber still wins.
this is just spec but i think its sounds good.