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Original Message
"According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-23-04 at 01:24 PM
A lot of people are trying to figure out who will vote for who based on post show interviews. I think a more accurate indicator as to who will do well at the end is to look at the clues in the editing.

Easily, the most edited character this season is Rob. Spoilers suggest that he is F2. The editing seems to mimick that suggestion.

From day 1 we have heard Rob talk about how great it would be to win the million and get the girl. Well, we already know he gets the girl. So all that is left is the million. Notice how when Rob makes comments like this it is not in a Silas/arrogant/idiot type of way, but more in a "wouldn't it be nice" type of way. I've even noticed that the background music has become soft and almost inspirational when he has made some of these comments. These are not similar to the many MB "look at the irony of this comment later on" type of editing that we see from him time and time again.

Now, over the past few episodes we have seem countless hints that Rob has no chance in the final 2. You have to ask yourselves, why would MB be showing us this? As Jims pointed out in a different thresd the most compelling reason is that Rob must actually win this game.

Let me explain a little further.....we all know that MB's main goal is to make the final episode suspenseful and shocking right down to the reading of the final votes. I contend that if Rob made the final 2 and DIDN'T win then there would be no point to all this negative F2 Rob editing we have been seeing because going into the finale we EXPECT Rob to lose to whoever he is up against. Therefore, it is counterproductive for Mb to edit Rob as an F2 loser if in fact he is an F2 loser. On the other hand, what would make perfect MB sense is to have Rob edited as the F2 loser, have the viewers expect a Rob loss and then for Rob to shock the tv audience by actually winning. That scenario would make the best tv, and making the best tv is ALWAYS MB's primary motivation.

Therefore, at this point in the story arc, I see no possible scenario where Rob finishes second. If, in the next few episodes Rob starts to get edited as a possible winner I might change my opinion on this, but at this point I don't see how he can come in second based on the editing.

Now, what about third? Sure, there is a chance that all the editing becomes mute as Rob gets eliminated at F3, but IMO there is just way way too much "Rob in the F2" editing for Rob to NOT make the F2.

I think the big irony or twist in the finale relating to the editing will be when Romber gets split up and Jenna ends up alongside Rob in the F2 as opposed to Amber...although the editing to support this is far weaker than the RobF2 editing.

Now, some of you are saying what about the chance that Rob gets voted out before the F3, thereby making all this discussion mute. To those people I say...sorry IamHe, but there is no way Rob is not in at least the F3...if you honestly think that Rob is not 100% guaranteed at least F3 then you haven't been paying attention to editing for the past 7 seasons.


Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by RFL on 04-23-04 at 01:33 PM
I agree with the Clown. It appears that Lex, Kathy, and Alicia will not vote for Rob if he makes it to the final 2, but I disagree. I think Rob will give a good argument to the jury on why he deserves to win (he outplayed them) and some of the jury members will put aside their anger and vote with their conscience, thus as a "regular" tv viewer, we will be surprised at Rob winning.
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by anotherkim on 04-23-04 at 07:45 PM

Well, no one thought anyone would vote for Jenna, but they did. TC does weird things to people. Rob has outplayed them all thus far.

Miscellaneous Ramblings
--agrees with Shakes

"Disagree"
Posted by I_AM_HE on 04-23-04 at 01:37 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-04 AT 01:59 PM (EST)

as someone (I think BxB) also pointed out in that thread, Jenna has suddenly gotten a lot of negative editing as well - probably to make it less obvious that she'll swamp Rawb in the vote. likewise, the warm-fuzzy, vomit-inducing "romance" is likely designed to soften Rawb up and make it look like he actually has a shot in hell at winning

And MB may edit a F2 loser this way - as a "you act like an arrogant ##### and alienate your tribemates, and you get your just desserts" message, which is also a compelling story and one that deserves to be told. yes, he has dominated the game, but he has NOT played smart

but i do agree that he may not even sniff the F2 anyway, so it could be a moot point. I'll concede that he looks like a F4 and maybe F2 lock at this point, but I don't see him winning at all. the editing to that has pointed to Jenna from the beginning (although that's beginning to disgust me almost as much as the prospect of Rawb winning)

but regardless of who wins (even if it's Tom, who has long been my favorite and 2nd pick to win after Jenna, even if far behind her in that respect), this has been the biggest joke of a season yet.

"RE: Disagree"
Posted by ManateeBob on 04-23-04 at 01:58 PM
Actually, I think there is a deliberate disconnect betweeen his confessional edits, and the way he is playing the game.

We all clearly see he is "the Robfadda" via the confessionals, but I do not recall seeing any behaviour like this while he is "in the game". As I mentioned a long time ago in the old players/edit thread, if anything when you watch him interacting with the tribe hes playing it as "Im just one of the tribe". Shared letters reward etc.

So while it could be play like an arrogant ##### and get your just rewards editting, I think its more likely to be a play like a duplicitous conniver and see if the jury will respect that or resent it.

"RE: Disagree"
Posted by I_AM_HE on 04-23-04 at 02:02 PM
possibly, but i don't think there has been so big a disconnect - Rich and Brian had that type of editing, but we HAVE seen Rawb being arrogant in public too, from his argument with Alicia down to his "softening" the blow for Lex and Kathy. and i think everyone saw through his letters gesture too, so that could actually hurt him more than it helps
"RE: agree with He"
Posted by emydi on 04-23-04 at 02:07 PM
First JPL, now Jenna, biggest joke of a season..we agree on many things HE

I think MB had no other choice but to edit Rob the most, he's the only one that's really trying to play the game, but for how wicked SMAHT Rob thinks he is, he is that much more hated by the jurors...this game for the 3 jurors thus far is not about respect in people's play but rather, how did you #### me over...they'll have the last laugh and #### Rob over with their votes.

emydi

"RE: Disagree"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 04-29-04 at 01:15 PM
. . ."yes, he has dominated the game, but he has NOT played smart. . ."

Rob is playing the game with his *****, not his head nor his heart! But I don't care -- my vote is with him -- he's gonna get the girl and the million!

Scarlett

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by steppingrazor42 on 04-23-04 at 01:45 PM
I agree also.
There's been way to much "I'll-NEVER-vote-for-him" comments stressed this season; a perfect set up for a win. MB has to make it shocking like you said, and making us think there's no way he can is the only way a Rob win could be interesting.
Alicia's evil step-sisteresque ending to her final comments last night was enough for me to start leaning toward Rob winning, or at least Romber as the final 1&2.
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Jayzzzy on 04-23-04 at 01:53 PM
I totally agree with your analysis Shakes....I would guess that MB does not want another "undeserving" winner (Vee, Jenna), especially since this is allstars. The Allstar winner needs to be someone who really played the game, someone worthy of being an allstar.

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by bdemoney on 04-23-04 at 02:06 PM
I agree 100% with you Shakes that Rob will be in the final two. I even started thinking last night that it will most likely be Rob and Jenna in the final two.

The first reason I think this is that through editing we know that Kathy said she doesn't want Jenna to win. This will mean that Kathy is torn between having to vote for two people she doesn't like to win.

The second reason is that through last nights editing we now know Alicia doesn't like Jenna either. So she also will have to decide between two people she doesn't like to win.

Lastly, they showed Rupert in the previews for next week saying he is having problems with Jenna and wishes he didn't have an alliance with her. If he is screwed over by Rob and is having problems with Jenna I think it would be hard for him to decide who to vote for in the final two as well.

We also have Lex commenting that the only way he would vote for Rob is if the other person in the final two got there by riding coattails, something that he may feel applies to Jenna. (what challenges has she won?!?)

So to summarize we are being led to believe there is no way Kathy, Lex or Alicia would ever vote for Rob, yet if he was faced with Jenna in the final two I could imagine all three of them voting for Rob instead. At least he has done something to deserve to be in the final two.

Those are my thoughts on the matter. Make of them what you will.

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by CRyanShort on 04-23-04 at 02:00 PM
I'm a bit confused. Why doesn't this belong in Veruca's Editing thread? I am confused because, though this post clearly belongs in the aforementioned thread, the creator of this thread is not only a respected contributor to the boards, but also an especially feisty rebuker who "flames" those who post in the wrong threads.

I know that, especially of late, the moderators have been increasing their criticism of misplaced threads, especially those involving editing.

In order to help less knowledgable posters and to avoid unecessarily or rude flames, could someone specifically clarify the new-thread policy? Thanks!

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Jayzzzy on 04-23-04 at 02:09 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-04 AT 02:09 PM (EST)

I don't post very often but I have been around long enough to know that it really isn't a good idea to give the Clown a hard time...Shakes knows the rules and follows them....If you lurk here long enough before sticking your neck out you too will learn the rules.


edited to correct spelling

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by HobbsofMI on 04-23-04 at 02:12 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-04 AT 02:19 PM (EST)

because it's the spinning clown head.....lol....it makes us all go mad


"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by CRyanShort on 04-23-04 at 06:28 PM
Well, duh.
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Jims02 on 04-23-04 at 02:13 PM
That's very true. This could go in the editing thread, but it's the mods' choice whether the thread should stay open.

I think this thread could offer some interesting Final3 editing analysis. Y'know, skip all the Tom and Rupert analysis and get to the big picture... But that's just me.


Jims02: 2004 CMY Anti-Executee Champ

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-23-04 at 03:11 PM
Well, this is specifically about Rob's editing vis-a-vis his *exact* placement in the end game, as opposed to general as-we-go editing observations.

Anyway, VerucaSalt's thread is way long now, maybe it's time for her to grace us with a new one.


"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by CRyanShort on 04-23-04 at 06:26 PM
Right on. I didn't think this place was wrong, per se, but I just didn't know the clarifications. Thanks!
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Jims02 on 04-23-04 at 02:11 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-04 AT 02:22 PM (EST)

Interesting analysis, shakes. So far, the spoilers seem to say that it'll probably come down to Amber/Jenna/Rob in the F3.

You have to ask yourselves, why would MB be showing us this? As Jims pointed out in a different thresd the most compelling reason is that Rob must actually win this game.

It struck me as odd. I don't remember, in any season, so many people saying "I won't vote for so-and-so in the finals," especially when Rob is favored to go to the F2.

Let me explain a little further.....we all know that MB's main goal is to make the final episode suspenseful and shocking right down to the reading of the final votes. I contend that if Rob made the final 2 and DIDN'T win then there would be no point to all this negative F2 Rob editing we have been seeing because going into the finale we EXPECT Rob to lose to whoever he is up against. Therefore, it is counterproductive for Mb to edit Rob as an F2 loser if in fact he is an F2 loser.

However, you may have to look at the other scenario. Let's say Rob *does* make it to the F2, and gets beaten by Amber, for instance. Look at it from MB's point of view. How are you going to justify a Rob loss? Clearly, from a gameplay perspective, the audience will feel Rob was robbed.

Well, one logical solution would be to start a theme. I noticed that at the first jury TC, Jeff did make a comment about it not mattering who you vote off, but how they're voted off. Based on Lex, Kathy, and Alicia's departures, this is starting to become a theme. I could see the entire audience, seeing Rob lose the F2, saying "Well, Rob shouldn't have backstabbed so many people."

Now, what about third? Sure, there is a chance that all the editing becomes mute as Rob gets eliminated at F3, but IMO there is just way way too much "Rob in the F2" editing for Rob to NOT make the F2.

I'm actually beginning to entertain the possibility of a F3 Rob boot... If Jenna/Rob/Amber are the Final 3, that creates a couple editing problems.

As I mentioned in the other thread, it seems like Jenna is starting to get the Amy (Apprentice) editing. In the final stretch, she's starting to appear more whiny/condescending. I've noticed that down the stretch the Winner gets the "deserving" editing. See Richard, Sandra, Tina, or Brian, for instance. Jenna's editing is so poor lately, that I can't see her winning the whole thing.

Side note: Does Jenna remind anyone of Neleh? Just wondering.

Amber intrigues me. I'm seriously considering an Amber win. She's been one of the few people untouched by negative editing. And MB's been insistent on showing every Amber strategy session (i.e. the Rupert/Jenna alliance, Amber did a lot of the negotiating).
Tom: negative about Sue, but better lately.
Shii Ann: portrayed as weak, non-player, but a nice change last episode.
Rob, Jenna: see before.
Rupert: that whole shelter fiasco, criticized by Jenna for "needing coaching."

OK, so I've been talking in circles. The editing seems to point out one of these two final2 situations.

1. Rob vs Jenna (lesser of two evils choice)
2. Jenna vs Amber (Amber wins)

An Amber win, IMHO, would solve a lot of the editing problems.
-Lex, Kathy, and Alicia don't vote for Rob.
-Rob's comment about having a girlfriend with a million.
-Explains Jenna's "Neleh" editing of late.

The only thing I wonder about is all those votes Kathy and Lex cast against Amber at TC...


Sorry for talking in circles. It could just go many different ways.
I should stop trying to cover all the bases, and focus on one aspect, huh?
Wait a minute... What am I doing, trying an analysis in Spoilers this season? *scurries away*

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by popsicle on 04-23-04 at 02:18 PM
Now wouldn't it be interesting if the order of the food last night at reward was the voting strategy - ShiAn was to be voted out, Tom did get the cold potatoes - maybe he is the next one out???

That also leaves Rob and Jenna in the top

HMMMMM!!! I love Rupert but could he be so obvious?

Popsicle

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by justwrong on 04-23-04 at 11:09 PM
i didn't see it so much as rupert's voting order as jenna's. we saw a little of that conversation where she was telling him what to do, but i got the feeling that there was a lot more to it.

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Dregar on 04-23-04 at 02:24 PM
I also agree that Amber could be a big vote getter from the jury based on the argument that she was the one actually pulling the strings and forcing Robs hand early on..

Now we are seeing alot of her strategy sessions..in fact were are probably seeing everyone one of them.

Is it a fact that it comes down to a guy/girl final 2?

That would suck for Jenna to get sniped off twice in the final 2.

Also Rob would be an idiot if he one final immunity and didn't take Amber.

They are still together now...

They can start a new reality show called For love or money;)

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Naked on 04-26-04 at 02:46 PM
That would suck for Jenna to get sniped off twice in the final 2.

Jenna never has made the final 2. She was voted out by Dr. Alphebet in S1 the second player after the merge.

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by geg6 on 04-23-04 at 03:03 PM
>However, you may have to look
>at the other scenario.
>Let's say Rob *does* make
>it to the F2, and
>gets beaten by Amber, for
>instance. Look at it
>from MB's point of view.
> How are you going
>to justify a Rob loss?
> Clearly, from a gameplay
>perspective, the audience will feel
>Rob was robbed.
>
>Well, one logical solution would be
>to start a theme.
>I noticed that at the
>first jury TC, Jeff did
>make a comment about it
>not mattering who you vote
>off, but how they're voted
>off. Based on Lex,
>Kathy, and Alicia's departures, this
>is starting to become a
>theme. I could see
>the entire audience, seeing Rob
>lose the F2, saying "Well,
>Rob shouldn't have backstabbed so
>many people."

This is what keeps me wondering about a Rob win. I think that this is a very telling quote and one that few people seem to have taken note of. At first, I thought this was something referring to Lex and how he got his comeuppance, but now I'm starting to think that it clearly is a theme and one that may run through various storylines.

>As I mentioned in the other
>thread, it seems like Jenna
>is starting to get the
>Amy (Apprentice) editing. In
>the final stretch, she's starting
>to appear more whiny/condescending.
>I've noticed that down the
>stretch the Winner gets the
>"deserving" editing. See Richard,
>Sandra, Tina, or Brian, for
>instance. Jenna's editing is
>so poor lately, that I
>can't see her winning the
>whole thing.
>
>Side note: Does Jenna remind anyone
>of Neleh? Just wondering.

I hadn't thought to compare her editing to Amy (very clever of you, Jims), but the whole Neleh thing seems glaringly obvious to me.

>Amber intrigues me. I'm seriously
>considering an Amber win.
>She's been one of the
>few people untouched by negative
>editing. And MB's been
>insistent on showing every Amber
>strategy session (i.e. the Rupert/Jenna
>alliance, Amber did a lot
>of the negotiating).

This is why I think it's entirely possible that she is the one getting the winner edit. She's not been shown as evil in any way despite who she's hanging out with and she is also shown to be playing the game. She's had her moments in challenges. I think that the general public would feel good about an Amber win. She has played the game well and other players have been shown commenting on her excellent game play. She has been loyal to her alliance. She seems to be well-liked by most tribe members. And the romance survives for a happy ending: instead of Rob getting the million and the girl, Rob gets the girl with the million.

>An Amber win, IMHO, would solve
>a lot of the editing
>problems.
>-Lex, Kathy, and Alicia don't vote
>for Rob.
>-Rob's comment about having a girlfriend
>with a million.
>-Explains Jenna's "Neleh" editing of late.


Exactly!


"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-23-04 at 03:18 PM
And the romance survives for a happy ending: instead of Rob getting the million and the girl, Rob gets the girl with the million.

I think Rob's editing could be an excellent set-up for him to go at F3 and then (proudly) watch Amber win the game for him.


"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-23-04 at 02:22 PM
Here, here Shakes....well said. I am in complete agreement. I think as this is the allstars that the winner will be a truely worthy one, and IMO, the only worthy one out there is Rob. He's been playing the game from day one, kept his eyes on the prize, and been extremely focused in all of the challenges. He's controlled his tribe from day one, and as I've said before, he's taking serious risks, just by emerging as the leader. Usually the alpha leaders ALWAYS paint a huge target on their backs.

Rob has been extremely diplomatic and even down right sensitive to others, and I see that very positively. He's been shown to be a bit arrogant and pompous as well, and somewhat devilish, but he reminds us that this is the game, and indeed it is. Rupert could in essence win this whole thing as well, but he is just too darn loyal, and will not go against his alliances. The Chappy's said it themselves, they'll stick together to F6 and then it will be EVERY MAN/WOMAN for themselves. When are these people going to back stab their alliances and make the big power play...now is the time, and as it stands, I still hear them "staying loyal" to one another....they will never WIN the game that way. Rob, and perhaps Amber(because of her association with Rob), are the only two that seem to recognize this.

Also with all of the negative editing of the losers feelings towards Rob, certainly makes us all wonder if he will be able to recieve ANY votes at all to win the game. We are specifically shown that Lex, Kathy, and now Alicia all hold him responsible, and are willing to bad mouth him and his game freely in their post game interviews. I am beginning to think that this is ALL total misdirection....perhaps they were "coached" to do this so we, the general public, will be set up for his shocking, surprise WIN. The editing now is making me solidly believe that Boston Rob has won it ALL. And I, for one, am thrilled to see that an A$$ like Rob is the winner, by far the most deserving. All of these other a$$es have let their preconceptions and thier prior assessments of these people color their game....Rob has not. To Rob I say, "WELL DONE"!

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by ulalame on 04-23-04 at 04:18 PM
I agree with both Shakes' and your reasoning. Frankly, I'm at a loss to understand why so many people don't like Rob. I think he's playing a GREAT game -- I don't think we've seen a season since S1 where one person had such tight control over both the loyalty of his alliance and the game at large. I for one would be thrilled with a Rob win -- he definitely deserves it.
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Loree on 04-23-04 at 05:37 PM
At this point I would be very upset and disappointed if Rob does not win. He is the only one really playing the game and taking chances. He deserves to win. He knows it is a game and is playing it as such. The others are sitting back and waiting for Rob to decide who goes to the final with him. If the jury turns petty and does not give him the votes they are not true All Stars and should not have been included in this series.

I find it interesting that Alicia says the others hang back and let Rob do the dirty work. This means Alicia recognizes this. Then how can she penalize him and not give him the vote at the end if she knows he only did what the others were afraid to do. He was playing while they were letting him do it for them.

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-23-04 at 05:45 PM
If the jury turns petty and does not give him the votes they are not true All Stars and should not have been included in this series.

Quite a few of them have proven that already with their idiotic gameplay. So who knows what they'll do on the jury?



"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by true on 04-23-04 at 05:46 PM
You've summed up my thoughts exactly, Loree. Thanks.


Oh my hen!

"RE: He is the only one really playing the game"
Posted by justwrong on 04-23-04 at 11:14 PM
i agree with this point loree, with the exception of amber. i am still holding out hope that she is really playing the game. she is so smart that she knows how to play stupid. she is going to ride rob until the wheels fall off, and then pitch him and take the money for herself. i, of course, have absolutely no proof of this. but it helps to fuel my fantasies!

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 04-29-04 at 01:25 PM
"At this point I would be very upset and disappointed if
Rob does not win. He is the only one really playing the game and taking chances. "

IMHO, I disagree with this statement. There is ONE other person who IS playing the game and that is AMBER!! She is letting Rob take the credit and do the dirty work, but as the WOMAN behind the man, I think she is the ultimate Puppet Master and I think SHE will win this game.


Scarlett

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by memacmur on 04-23-04 at 02:26 PM
Agreed that Rawb must be in the final 3 to justify the editting.

Further, I think we've almost been handed a final 3 of Jenna/Amber/Rawb (potentially replace Amber, I'll explain in long- winded fashion)

Despite the negative edge her editting received in this episode (and the preview for next week), Jenna has been clearly shown playing the game - to the point of being Rupert's coach. It's not an accident when you see her telling Rupert who to wait out in the immunity challenge... Also, remember all the scheming and plotting (again a little evil) we saw back on Saboga. She's definitely been editted as a player.

I won't bother reiterating what Shakes has already stated about Rawb.

Amber - at first she seemed not much more than a snuggle-bunny for Rawb and a strong F2 alliance. However, I think Shii Ann's comment about how she seems so nice but is really one of the strongest players out here a very telling quote. Shii knows she's a dead woman walking, and is free to observe the tribe from a unique standpoint.

The tease of a Rawb/Amber split/betrayal is interesting, and could mean one of Rawb/Amber doesn't make the final 3. But I'd still be surprised (pleasantly though). I still lean more towards Romber splitting up at the final 3, saying I need your vote, and I know I can beat Jenna because I am great and she is not.

Final note to cover my butt - Rupert received one heckuva editting job during PI despite not making it that far, simply based on the fact that he had a personality that appealed to viewers. I think Rawb qualifies for the same deal - love him or hate him, he keeps you watching to see what'll spill out of his big yap.

MEmacmur

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Jims02 on 04-23-04 at 02:32 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-04 AT 02:33 PM (EST)

Logistically, I don't see how they'd get rid of Amber though.

Jenna/Rupert/Tom would *have* to finally get their acts together and get rid of one of them. Possible, but unlikely at the moment, since Jenna/Rupe might split, and Jenna's so gung-ho with Rob lately.

Amber getting kicked in the F5 or F4 might explain a Rob/Jenna F2...


Spoiling: What happens on a Friday when your classes are cancelled for the day.

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Bebo on 04-23-04 at 03:03 PM
>Jenna/Rupert/Tom would *have* to finally get
>their acts together and get
>rid of one of them.

Won't happen. There's no reason for Tom to go for it.

In an earlier episode, Amber referred to a Final 3 with Rob and Tom. We've been shown loads of conversations that Tom has had with Rob. And even though we were shown Tom offering Alicia a final 2 pact, he voted for her at TC, so he was clearly in the loop on what was going on. Obviously, he still thinks his final 3 deal with those two is alive and kicking.

I can just picture Rob talking with Tom about how Rupert and Jenna think that they're in a final 4 alliance, and Rob laughing about the foolishness of risking a 2-2 tie at that TC messing up his plans. It would be easy to convince Tom that when it's down to 5 that T/RM/A will vote out Rupert unless he wins immunity, in which case they'll take out Jenna. We were also shown Kathy's conversation with Tom pointing out that the votes at 7 and 5 were the key decision times, so it would make sense to Tom that T/RM/A is the real alliance and that Rupert and Jenna are just being strung along.

Snarky, smart, S7 Anti-Bootee Champ

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by okaloosajohn on 04-23-04 at 03:15 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-04 AT 03:15 PM (EST)

And of course there is still the little matter of the astronomical betting odds on Tom being in the F3...

"It isn't about who played the best this time...."
Posted by ivoryElephant on 04-23-04 at 03:15 PM
Allstars is different. In any other season Rob would be commended for his excellent gameplay.

He has shown what survivor is all about.

But

AllStars is a bunch of friends getting together and playing. It isn't the same game. I gaurentee if I voted my oldest sister out of a game of survivor she would be 10x a bigger ##### than sue hawk.

And this is what rob doesn't see. Backstabbing good friends won't win you votes in allstars.

Backstabbing strangers (brian stabbing helen and ted) will get you votes
"The game of 'Survivor' is literally what you've learned throughout your life and how to handle yourself amongst humans and your fellow man,"-Kathy O'Brien

"RE: It isn't about who played the best this time...."
Posted by ulalame on 04-23-04 at 06:47 PM
I would buy this, Ivory Elephant, if the other survivors (Lex, I'm looking square at you) who claimed to be playing based upon "friendship" were not such gigantic hypocrites. Lex played the "it's not friendship, it's business" card with Ethan (his final 4 alliance partner from Africa), and then spit in Jerri's offer of loyalty to the end of the game, so he could cozy up to his friend Rob? It was game play, through and through, and it backfired on both Lex and Kathy. It's only when their schemes fell through (including tanking their own alliance members in hopes for a better spot with the other team, which is a risky strategy at best) and their feet were to the fire that they pulled out the "friendship card," and at that point, it really rang hollow for me. Yes, you make a good point that these people do know each other and that will definitely change the dynamic -- it appears that only Rob, so far, has understood how to get ahead in this environment, as all the others are playing the most bone-headed game of Survivor I've ever seen.
"RE: It isn't about who played the best this time...."
Posted by Loquatrix on 04-23-04 at 10:37 PM
Agreed on all counts, ulalame, especially in regard to Lex. While Kathy is overall a far too emotional player for my tastes, I'm particularly irritated that someone of Lex's relative rationality hasn't connected the dots in this way (relative being the operative word). At the time of gameplay, he wasn't thinking at all. He was feeling. And then he was blind enough to criticise others for complaining about the exact same "unfeeling" treatment Lex was dishing out.

I hope that, once he has had a chance to reflect on the situation, and with the benefit of hindsight, he will at least understand that he didn't get a knife in the back. Rather, he received the other cliche -- a taste of his own medicine. I dislike to see a sore loser, so I do hope he eventually agrees that he was simply outplayed by someone who was doing no more or less than Lex was quite cheerfully doing himself.

Spoiler value = nil, but a good rant always makes me feel a lot better, which is worth something to me, at least. ::hum::

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by fredscott on 04-23-04 at 03:24 PM
I have to agree with Shakes that Rob is definitely being edited as Final Two at least. I wonder, though, if he goes up against Amber, who would win? Rob is the one that the jury members have been blaming for their ouster, she controls Rob's vote as much as he controls hers. As a matter of fact, Professor Sadow over at Reality News Online is ready to add Amber to his list of top strategic performances of all time.

Seriouly.

No, really. You can read about it here:
http://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=1&article=article4411.art&page=1\
While I think (and hope) that Rob will win, I wouldn't rule Amber out yet.

"Agreed"
Posted by Jims02 on 04-23-04 at 04:00 PM
Definitely, Bebo, *especially* because of the perceived Rupert/Jenna split.

No doubt Jenna will run off to Rob. This plays well for him. Does he use Jenna or Tom at the F5? The smart move would be to go Rob/Jenna/Amber against the strong duo of Rupert and Tom.

6. ShiiAnn
5. Tom
4. Rupert
Final 3: Rob/Amber/Jenna

Just throwing some more speculation for ya.


Jims02: 2004 CMY Anti-Executee Champ

"Rob/Jenna F2"
Posted by RudyRules on 04-26-04 at 06:43 PM
If Jenna wins IC in F3, she takes Rob with her to the F2 thinking enough people will not vote for him due to backstabbing thereby we have the R/J F2.
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by true on 04-23-04 at 03:19 PM
I've been saying this all along. People are so blinded by their disgust for Rob, they just refuse to believe it.

The negative edit for Jenna has been really played up the last few weeks as well.

Like I said in the Spoiler thread last night- We're being set up for a Rob/Jenna (who will be the lesser of two evils??) final.

Personally, I think it's all a smokescreen to cover an obvious Rob win. The only one who I think could beat him would be Tom, since he still seems to have friends. Rob won't let Tom get near the finals though.

The jury is posing as bitter, sore losers. But, up against Jenna, I think Boston(I'd trust him with my life)Rob wins in a landslide.


Oh my hen!

"the problem with a Rob/Amber F2"
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-23-04 at 03:41 PM
sometimes in Spoiling it becomes easier to find the answer by working the problem in reverse, i.e. starting with the answer and trying to figure out the question.

It worked in S2, when we figured out that Nick won immunity, not because of vidcaps, but because we knew that Jerri was getting voted out and the only way Jerri could get voted out was if Nick won Immunity, therefore, Nick MUST win immuniyt....and he did.


This is the same logic I use in thinking about the possibility of a Amber/Rob final 2. At this point, I think I know two things....one, that Rob wouldn't beat Amber in the final 2 and two, that Rob can't finish second. Therefore, using the same logic as the nick boot, I have to come to the conclusion that Rob and Amber are NOT the final 2.

In order for Rob to beat Amber in the f2, the editing would be showing Rob as a far superior strategist to set Rob up as a the "most deserving strategist even though he is the biggest jerk" winner. If that were the case we would be seeing Amber being portrayed as a coatail rider. As I don't need to point out, its pretty obvious that Amber is being portrayed as a strategist this time around and not a coattail rider. Therefore, MB would have a hard time justifying a Rob win over Amber based on the currrent editing. he's not going to win a popularity contest between the two and he hasn't done enough strategically to distance himself from her in that area either.

Jenna, on the other hand, could easily lose to Rob in the F2. For one, Kathy. ShiAnn and Alicia have all displayed disgust in Jenna. PLus, we know that Amber will vote for Rob. That could be the four votes he needs right there.

In summary, I don't see Rob beating Amber based on the editing, but I also don't see Rob finishing second based on the editing, nor do I see him finishing outside the top 2...therefore, Rob must beat Jenna in the F2.

Of course, all this is subject to change given possible massive editing changes in the next couple of episodes.

"Don't forget..."
Posted by ivoryElephant on 04-23-04 at 03:45 PM
sometimes the editing is really messed up.

someone with NO airtime can win the game.

In S4 the editing pointed to a Kathy win. She was the underdog, she escaped the boot through miraculous odds... then all of a sudden this person named vecepia wins. Her only interesting comment was in ep 1 when she mentioned sarahs body and that she must have paid a lot for it

"And don't forget"
Posted by AyaK on 04-23-04 at 04:23 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-04 AT 04:24 PM (EST)

...that Vee's win received TREMENDOUS negative feedback for MB. So much so, in fact, that he blamed it for hurting the ratings for S5. Even though he edited the show to follow the most compelling storylines -- Kathy and Neleh-Pappy -- a UTR player like Vee winning just didn't cut it. (Of course, Vee wouldn't have won if Tammy wasn't such a sore loser, which is why there ain't no Tammy on SAS).

Burnett hasn't made that mistake since. Look at UTR Sandra winning S7. Burnett made sure that we all knew about her alliances with Rupert and Christa, who were both on the jury. Burnett set up Johnny Fairplay's (successful) efforts to mess up the final order and Lil's double-cross of Darrah in such a way that we didn't blame Sandra for the same double-cross. Even though Sandra couldn't have been any more UTR if she'd burrowed into a cave, no one was shocked when she won.

shakes, good points.

"RE: the problem with a Rob/Amber F2"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-23-04 at 03:59 PM
The thing is, I don't feel that Rob's editing is your "standard" negative editing.

Rob usually gets shown from one of three sides: "sneering villain", "tender romantic", "thoughtful analyst". But we very often, like last night, see all three sides of Rob in the same episode. He made fun of Shii Ann and Alicia (villain), cuddled and reassured Amber (romantic), and mused about what Rupert revealed at the RC, and whether or not he himself might be in danger (analyst).

Rob's gotten consistently more complex editing than MB's given anyone that I can remember. But I'm not sure this means he's going to win. I can see him placing anywhere in the Top 3 -- *but*, from his editing, I only see him leaving at F3 if Amber is the winner. I agree there is no way he'll be in the Final 2 with Amber, for the simple reason that they've received much too heavy focus as a "pair" from the get-go.

But if Rob is in F2 with Jenna, as is largely speculated, right now I think it could go either way, based on the editing of both of them thus far.



"RE: the problem with a Rob/Amber F2"
Posted by Jims02 on 04-23-04 at 04:03 PM
I agree about the Amber/Rob pair. I deliberately left off that possibility.

What about the possibility of a Jenna/Amber F2 though? I keep hearing old spoilers about a male/female F2. Link please? Or is it merely a rumor?


Jims02: 2004 CMY Anti-Executee Champ

"RE: the problem with a Rob/Amber F2"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-23-04 at 04:13 PM
It's in
Snewser's All Star Spy Report:

It looks like we will again have a Final 3 made up of 2 females and one male though this time the Final 2 should be a male and a female.


"RE: the problem with a Rob/Amber F2"
Posted by Jims02 on 04-23-04 at 04:39 PM
Thanks. It's good to get back to the premises of our conclusions.


Jims02: 2004 CMY Anti-Executee Champ

"RE: the problem with a Rob/Amber F2"
Posted by marco on 04-23-04 at 04:54 PM
I've been thinking about the last survivor and how going into the final four everything got turned around.
Could they be handling us again, I can't get Tom's comment about this game is for the big boys out of my head. If I had to bet I would say rob and jenna, w/ rob taking it.
but could a tom & ruppert final two be a game for big boys.w/ruppert wining it all. ruppert's comment i knew i could beat richard hatch comes back into my head as well.
"RE: the problem with a Rob/Amber F2"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-23-04 at 07:58 PM
Jenna, on the other hand, could easily lose to Rob in the F2. For one, Kathy. ShiAnn and Alicia have all displayed disgust in Jenna.

I think Jenna has been edited as a bossy, loud-mouthed, controling, bumbling dufus in challenges during her stay at Saboga. Then switching over to Chappy, she was smart to take a more "back seat" approach, and fly under the radar and assimiliate into "Rob's" tribe. As time goes by, however, we are starting to see Jenna feel more comfortable with her alliance there, and her old, controlling, bossy, obnoxious personality seems to be emerging again.

We know that the previews this week foreshadow more negative editing of Jenna. We hear Rupert saying he wished he did'nt have an alliance with her cause she's a real pain in the a$$. And we see Shii-devil even whining about her.... Perhaps this negative editing of Jenna is a prelude to building Robfadda up, and making him seem like the lesser of two evils when paired with Jenna in the finals....(yet, I also know that the previews could also just be plain old MB misdirection for a Jenna boot this week.)

"RE: the problem with a Rob/Amber F2"
Posted by cowboyroo on 04-26-04 at 03:13 AM
I agree that the Final 2 are NOT Rob/Amber, but I see it vice versa. We've been shown all series that Amber is playing the game over the romance with Rob, but we see Rob saying he's here for the million bucks, but getting blinded by Amber.

I very strongly think we are seeing a setup for Amber to win Final 3 immunity and ditch Rob. Also, when Rob C got booted we saw quite a bit of Tom/Amber plotting which we haven't seen since. I think Amber may be in a Final 2 alliance with Big Tom.

We are also seeing Rupert and Jenna consistently in their private interviews say they are in a Final 4 agreement with Rob and Amber. We don't see as much of Rob and Amber sticking to that agreement. When Amber brought up replacing Lex/Kathy for Rupert/Jenna, I was convinced that Amber had 2 Final 2 alliances, the second of which had to have been Big Tom, because the plan all along was to have a pair and a single to be aligned with, or actually a pair and 2 singles to be aligned with. Rupert and Jenna are a pair and have a pair. Amber/Rob have each other as a pair, jenna and Rupert as a pair, and i think they both think they have Big Tom.

Unless there is an immunity surprise, Shii will be next followed by Rupert (unless he wins immunity), then Jenna, then based on the editing I am more likely to believe a final 2 of Tom/Amber with Rob coming in 3rd. The same report that reported Final 3 as 2 females and a male had the first bootee as a male, so I don't hold to much credit in that; and with the Intertops betting so out of whack in Tom's favor, he must be in Final 2, if both Rob and Amber aren't.

And we are seeing a LOT of people's opinions regarding Jenna and Rob, which would lead the normal viewing audience to believe they are the Final 2, when in fact they will be 3 and 4.

I see Amber being edited as the winner if only that she knows how to separate her personal feelings from the game more than any player to date.

"No way!"
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-26-04 at 12:45 PM
>I very strongly think we are
>seeing a setup for Amber
>to win Final 3 immunity
>and ditch Rob.


....you do know that they are still dating, don't you? No way Rob is still dating Lamber if she dumps him at F3. And don't say that he would still be dating her if she won a million...if you believe that, then you don't know anything about the male ego.


I would bet everything I own, and will own for the rest of my life that Lamber, if given the opportunity, doesn't even think about dumping Rob, let alone do it.

But, getting away from fantasy land, I think its pretty obvious that this situation doesn't come up as Jenna is basically a sure thing for F3 immunity based on the deductive reasoning that Rob wouldn't beat Amber in the F2, Rob doesn't finish second, therefor, it has to be Rob vs Jenna in the F2...and since both Rob and Amber would pick each other at F3, taht leads to the unavoidable conclusion that Jenna wins the F3 immunity.

"stirred, not shaken..."
Posted by curveball on 04-26-04 at 06:56 PM
Shakes - you have concluded several times that Rob cannot/will not beat Amber F2. I disagree. Rob has played the game well, Amber (imo) has stayed UTR. This "normally" might work as a strategy, but I think the A$$ jury will be more inclined to go with the in-your-face here's how it's going down attitude...

I think the jury will believe that the A$$ winner should be "the best player ever" and I don't see anyone thinking that is Amber. Not even Jerri. Let me be the first (and probably last) to say I'm thinking 7-0 Rob over Amber in the finals...

-cb

go ahead..."shake" me...

"Maybe No way on the how it happens"
Posted by cowboyroo on 04-26-04 at 07:13 PM
With Intertops favoring Tom for ages now at 1.01 odds....thus someone betting $1,000 on Tom will get back $1,010 if they win; someone knows something, especially since the next closest option isn't even close.

So Tom is in the Top 3, based on something other than an idiot betting huge amounts of money on Tom for some reason to beat Rob and Amber. I would assume the betting would give the win to any contestant if Rob/Amber are Final 2 would come in 3rd. So, either both Rob and Amber are the Final 2 and Tom comes in 3rd, or one of Rob/Amber is in the Final 2, and Tom is in the Final 2.

There is no other possible explanation of how the odds could be and have been so skewed for Tom. By Tom coming in at least 3rd, and of Rob/Amber definitely in Final 2 (which is a given from editing), Rupert/Jenna should go 4 and 5. Since Jenna is getting a lot of attention as to what people think of her, I'm guessing she comes in 4th, Rupert 5th, based on editing.

If Tom/Rob/Amber are Final 3, unless the Final 3 competition is something they've never used at Final 3 before, I don't see any chance of Tom winning it, and if Rob/Amber win it, I would see Amber ditching Rob before Rob ditching Amber (both of which I agree seem unlikely) which leaves us with a Rob/Amber Final 2; which I'm actually starting to believe more and more. The guy gets the money and the girl.

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by JohnMc on 04-23-04 at 04:26 PM
Gotta say that I agree with the clown on this one. He can't come in second, though I keep thinking that the PTTE is:

Shii/Rupert/Tom, then depending on immunity

Romber wins immunity, takes the other, and Amber wins, or
Jenna wins, takes Rob, and Jenna wins.

This definitely takes Rob to F3. Now let's look at history, particularly S6 Amazon w/Rob C and S7 PI w/JFP. Both of those 2 were portrayed as the "villain," which Rob M definitely has been portrayed this season. Rob was cut at F3 because they knew he would win. JFP was cut at 3 because Lil said that he didn't deserve to win. (In the S7 Reunion, the jury said that Lil would have won the million if she'd have taken Jonny, but I think he could have made a strong case that he was the gameplayer and deserved to win.) Though I hate to admit it, the gameplayer is usually the one who deserves to win.

In this game, the only one left who has played the game from the beginning was Rob. He formed the alliance with Amber, and not the other way around. He took Amber to make the alliance w/Jenna and Rupert. Rob had the Tom alliance. Rob also made and broke deals with Rob C and Alicia. Rob was the player, and Amber was just the follower.

Another thing that makes me think that Rob is well-liked in Chapera, above and beyond his alliances, is how he was portrayed in the slam book challenge. Alicia would trust Rob with her life, and so did the majority of the tribe. Even though he's getting the "villain" potrayal, and even though Kathy and Lex have slammed him, and Alicia has said that she will not write his name down, he doesn't have the same "villain" status in camp that JFP and Rob C had.

When Rob has to cut people loose, he'll be seen poorly. But in the end, if he's seen as a player, then ... please don't make me say it, just read my mind please. I don't want to say that Rob, the 10th place finisher in Marquesas, can actually win.

"Someone gives away immunity?"
Posted by ivoryElephant on 04-23-04 at 04:48 PM
On Survivor 4 They started the new rule of giving away immunity. Jeff always asked if anyone wanted to give it away.

Then during S5 it was never mentioned yet the rule still existed. During S5 no one ever gave it away and jeff never mentioned it.

During S6 all of a sudden Jeff starts talking about giving away immunity again and dont ya know it, jenna gives it to heidi.

I have noticed this time that jeff keeps asking them if they want to give it away. Last night he KNEW shii ann wanted to keep it but asked her anyways.

Since they are editing it in it seems like someone will give it away eventually. But who and when?

"RE: Someone gives away immunity?"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-23-04 at 04:52 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-04 AT 04:54 PM (EST)

We already saw Kathy consider giving it up to Lex, and then change her mind. That might be the extent of its significance for A$$.


"RE: Agree, but"
Posted by ADKer on 04-23-04 at 06:57 PM
A agree that Rob is final 3; I believe that he is final 2. If he goes earlier, the discussion is moot, not mute.

The editing could change to show Tom or Amber as deserving to win. Neither one has been shown to be a total klutz and a few astute moves could justify a win. Jenna would be a more difficult win to edit in. She has not been shown exercising much finess. Rupert is a good egg but he was such a disaster at the beginning and really does not diserve to win.

Rob will target Tom before Amber or Jenna because Tom could more readily will a jury vote due to Tom's ties to Lex and Alicia.

In my opinion, Rob is as deserving a winner as anyone who has won this game. He is a jerk but he is not a malicious jerk and he is a smart, calculating son of a ....

"RE: Agree, but"
Posted by JohnMc on 04-23-04 at 07:52 PM
<<Rupert is a good egg but he was such a disaster at the beginning and really does not diserve to win.>>

Anyone remember this girl from Marquesas, I think her name was Kathy. Yeah, that's it, Kathy. She became the darling of the show by screwing up in the beginning, and the jury said that Kathy was the one who deserved to win. Oh, yeah... I think she was on All-Stars, too.

"2 things to mention"
Posted by RyrieRae on 04-24-04 at 10:57 AM
I have 2 separate comments about Rob's edits, and for the record, I believe the final 3 are RAJ, Final 2 is Rob/Jenna and winner is Rob.

1. I've seen several postings about Alicia not liking Jenna, but I've seen nothing mentioned about Alicia's final words. She says something to the effect of "Rob, you better hope you're not in the final 2 because I'm gonna make it hard." Add this qupte to the others and I think Rob has a secured final 2 spot.

2. Let's back up a bit... remember the re-crap episode where they showed Jenna snuggling with Rob and Amber, then Jenna with just Rob? Amber sat by and said, "I'm not going to get jealous about Rob and Jenna." I believe this is a foreshadow to the final 3. Just as in the re-crap, Jenna got in between Romber, I believe she will win final immunity and come in between Romber for the last time.

"RE: Agree, but"
Posted by tjstein on 04-26-04 at 12:46 PM
In Shakes' defense, the discussion is both mute AND moot since it is typed rather than spoken.


slice slice baby!

no spoilers from me...just being silly today

"EP 14 or 15 pic???"
Posted by Brat2u on 04-24-04 at 11:47 AM
I brought this over from another thread. This clip is from Episode 12's web promo. It was never shown during EP12...I think this is a IC pic from Episode 14 or 15. Is that Rob and Jenna or Amber standing in the ocean on stumps, possibly on a raft?

"RE: EP 14 or 15 pic???"
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-24-04 at 11:57 AM
nothing to see here folks, this pic is from ep 12. It was a brief scene with Amber and Rob in the ocean singing the Chaboga Mogo song, which by the way, will be included as a bonus track on the American Idol Christmas album and performed by William Hung.

"RE: EP 14 or 15 pic???"
Posted by Loquatrix on 04-24-04 at 12:04 PM
Am I just being inexplicably churlish on a beautiful Saturday morning when the NFL draft is about to take place and Maurice Clarett isn't in it so all is well with the world, or is Chaboga Mogo the stupidest and most annoying freaking tribe name ever in the history of the game?
"RE: EP 14 or 15 pic???"
Posted by Jayzzzy on 04-26-04 at 09:28 PM
it really made my day when maurice got his...what a putz
"RE: EP 14 or 15 pic???"
Posted by Brat2u on 04-25-04 at 00:48 AM
Stephen Kings movie "IT" has a whole new meaning to me now
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by mookiemeister on 04-25-04 at 12:51 PM
I think we will see either a Rob/Amber or Rob/Rupert final 2. And I agree with you that Rob will win in a Rob/Amber final 2, but I just don't see Rob win versus Rupert. Even though Rupert made some mistakes in building shelter, he's still more likeable than Rob.


"As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality." - Einstein

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by frisky on 04-25-04 at 10:09 PM
I've noticed that MB is editing Rob so that the audience will accept him as a winner. He included Kathy's confessional about how Rob is a good kid but he's as much of an arse in All Star as he was in the Marquesas. The friendship between Rob and Lex was discussed ad nauseum (and Lex looked like the idiot in that exchange because of what he did to Ethan and Jerri). We have been consistently reminded about how these people all know each other outside of the game. And everyone seems to like Rob.


Card-carrying RBBRTFHLA/Sugar Ho Division
Non-Embezzling GAWKUR Treasurer

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by pmspml5 on 04-26-04 at 03:14 PM
If your going by snews - he finishes third
"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by nailbone on 04-26-04 at 04:51 PM
As of the last update. That F3 order has changed a number of times already.


Cool new sig courtesy of Jslice o-

"Last season..."
Posted by bebekid on 04-26-04 at 08:36 PM
Sandra was NEVER in the "winner's" spot on Snewser's scorecard. Not until the day of the finale. Shocked a bunch of us to h**l!


-anything but a Rawb win at this point will be a disappointment.

"Lex Interview"
Posted by seanyoong on 04-27-04 at 05:51 AM
Hi everyone. Am a longtime lurker from Malaysia, and this is my first post. Just wanted to share an excerpt from a phone interview that Singapore's respected Straits Times newspaper had with Lex recently. It was published over the last weekend. Basically, Lex seems to indicate that he only spoke to Rob after the game was over. Which could be yet another clue that signals Rob was in the Final Two?

Question: How's it going between you and Rob right now?

Answer: We've spoken since the game was over. We're two human beings living on the same rock together, so there's no reason not to be civil with him. But are we still friends? No. He showed me no respect in the game and he's shown what he thinks of our friendship. I don't have a grudge against him. I admit he's been a good player, but I don't need him as a friend in my life.

"RE: Alicia Interview"
Posted by bdemoney on 04-27-04 at 02:16 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-27-04 AT 02:21 PM (EST)

In another quote that may (or may not) support Rob being in the final two, I found this interesting in a TV Guide interview done with Alicia:

TVGO: You have made it very clear that you don't want Boston Rob to win. But since he and Amber are involved, if she wins, then he wins too.
Alicia: I think that Amber and Rob are together because they have this comfort level between them. They keep each other in check. But once the next Survivor and nobody is talking about them, I wonder if they are still going to be together. I also wonder if one of them wins the million, if the other will really be sharing it. I would think not.

Seems to me from this quote that she thinks either Rob or Amber may actually win the million dollars and is anxious to see if they will share the money or decide to each his own.

I can especially see her point if she knows Rob and Jenna are the final two. Meaning if Rob wins that he may not be as willing to share his rewards with Amber as she may have thought. Just my speculation....


Link to complete interview: http://www.tvguide.com/news/insider/040427a.asp

"RE: Alicia Interview"
Posted by emydi on 04-27-04 at 02:41 PM
TVGO: Were you surprised by anything while watching the show?
Alicia: Yeah. I was surprised that Amber called me a big baby. Because, quite honestly, Amber is a big baby. She's 25, she still lives at home with her parents and this is the second time she has played the game and she still chooses the same tactic, which is to hide behind the bad guy. She did it in Australia with Jerri, and she's doing that with Rob. I'm being a baby because I don't want to talk to anybody? I don't think so.

I know Alicia did not hear this quote until last week, but she does not have that much regard for Amber.

Also on the above quote, about sharing the million--what do all think EPMB is going to do if Romber wins the million? Will he be following the winner around to make sure s/he doesn't spend it withe other? I wonder what the contract says... it's the lawyer in me...sorry...

emydi

"I don't think EPMB will mind--more publicity"
Posted by toddE on 04-27-04 at 03:34 PM
Unfortunately, it sure looks like Mariano will win and share his mil with Amber. but I don't think MB will mind, since it's a publicity windfall for this lame show.
My observation: A.S.S.=Thailand
Rob=Brian, a dominant, unlikable (to viewers) player with sheepish followers who was presented as the winner from the first episode.
Assign other players to their roles and debate who is Clay, who is Helen, and who is Jan. Amber is Ted, but she won't get stabbed in the back.
Two boring, predictable seasons with unspectacular ratings, no buzz, lots of fan-site bashing, both won by sleazeballs.
Except for Shii proving herself worthy, this season couldn't be worse--and the worst is still to come, most likely.


"Romber marriage?"
Posted by EMT135 on 04-29-04 at 03:10 AM
>Also on the above quote, about
>sharing the million--what do all
>think EPMB is going to
>do if Romber wins the
>million? Will he be
>following the winner around to
>make sure s/he doesn't spend
>it withe other? I
>wonder what the contract says...
>it's the lawyer in me...sorry...

Emydi,
This is exactly the thing I've been pondering. There has been some talk of a possible Romber marriage which makes me wonder about the specific language in the contract which prevents contestants from "sharing" their winnings. Would it preclude marriage?

Imagine the press if either R or A won and then forfeited the money for a walk down the aisle. MB would love it and it would generate the kind of publicity for the show that no money could ever buy.

Anyone know precisely what the contract states?

EMT

"RE: Romber marriage?"
Posted by udg on 04-29-04 at 07:22 AM
I believe it prevents them from CONSPIRING to share the mil. So, Rob couldn't say, "Hey, Ambuh, let me win, and I'll give you half." After he's won, he can do whatever he wants with it. He could split it 18 ways among the entire cast if he wanted, as long as he didn't conspire to do so DURING or BEFORE the game.

---
UDG

"RE: Romber marriage?"
Posted by okaloosajohn on 04-29-04 at 09:08 AM
And "intent" is one of the hardest things to prove in court!

"RE: Romber marriage?"
Posted by udg on 04-29-04 at 09:29 AM
It is unless you have them on tape saying, "Let's split it," before anyone has won it.

---
UDG

"RE: Romber marriage?"
Posted by emydi on 04-29-04 at 10:41 AM
I keep remembering the Sean/V interplay at the S4 finale about V helping Sean pay rent and V kept saying OH NO, I'm not going to do that.

They asked her about that on The Early Show. I think the Contract language would be more broad. Remember EPMB has all the bargaining power here and these are not contracts that these people HAVE to sign (contracts of adhesion) So I think the language has something about "sharing the money" afterwards.

ANd o-john, intent is hard to prove in court, but the circumstantial evidence of a Romber split the money is compelling here. You hardly ever have the "smoking gun" (or "smoking ###" in this case).

emydi

"RE: Lex Interview"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-29-04 at 09:45 AM
It's really nice to get an interview from so far away. Thanks!

To me that interview sounds like Lex would have been willing to vote for Rob as a player because he's holding on to the upset with a personal rejection of Rob.

I don't think it's conclusive that they didn't speak before the game was over. Lex knows he's not allowed to say that; he knows the rules. He is allowed to comment about post-game, and he does.

A note on bonding at the lodge learned from S3:
Kelly Goldsmith was the best juror ever for revealing who went after her, and she was still very bitter about Lex even though he did technically come to the jury.

F3 person is there only one night, and at that point there are 7 people. The bonding seems to take place between early jurors who have to kill time together.

Also, Lex with his "betrayal" complex: he would be just as down on Rob whether he came in 1, 2, or 3; it's personal to Lex that Rob disrespected Lex as a friend, and goes beyond Lex being a sore loser (as Kelly was).

He might vote for Rob but still be just as pissed at him. Survivor Lex's head is a scary place. Let's not go there. (IRL and in alternate universes without this game, Lex is probably a nice person.)

All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne

"RE: Lex Interview"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-29-04 at 11:01 AM
OFG, I've been feeling the same way about Lex's interviews. His bitterness at Rob is all about Lex rationalizing his own poor finish in the game, imo.

Lex has said he felt was the most targeted player, after the winners, going in to A$$; obviously he has a high opinion of his Survivor-playing reputation. He won't admit that his strategy was faulty. Lex feels he didn't deserve to lose the way that he did, and he is holding Rob personally responsible. He would feel the same no matter where Rob finishes in the game, and no matter whether or not Lex voted for Rob if Rob made F2.


"Survey on Rahb's finish"
Posted by thetick on 04-28-04 at 03:07 AM
FWIW

Snewser's survey question today is:

In what place will Rob Mariano finish?

results so far:
Rob will take
1st place 26.7%
2nd place 37.9%
3rd place 19.0%
4th or worse 16.5%

Total votes: 765

Not that this proves anything, but somebody thinks he's coming in second. I still see him getting first. The SurvivorFever polls have always been dubious which I chalked up to lots of casual viewers participating w/o being aware of spoiling. I haven't followed Snewser's polls enough to know if he is drawing from a better pool.

"RE: Survey on Rahb's finish"
Posted by GalaxyGirl on 04-29-04 at 09:32 AM
I don't put any stock in Snewsers final 3 or one, remembering how wrong, wrong, wrong he was last year.

I've had Rob listed as the final winner since the first episode. He may not be liked among the viewers, but he won me over this year. The house he built, his upbeat manner, his physical strength, his cunning. They have showed him to be super romantic.

Last season they had Sandra highlighted all the way, which was better than hiding her like they did with Vecepia and then everyone being disgusted by that.

The way they are editing it now though, is that Kathy, Lex and Alicia didn't vote for him. Will shii-ann? Who knows. If him and Jenna get into the final 2, should Jenna get the million over Rob? or Amber? I don't think so, and I don't think that people will vote for them, except maybe Rupert who has a soft heart for the ladies.

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-29-04 at 09:37 AM
shakes,
I like your argument; I think your NOT SECOND is right on.

My question to you is, how do you compare this editing with the editing that was all over S2--that no one would vote for Keith, so he would be taken to the F2. And then he was third, so it all never came to be.

Or how about all the no one would vote for Rob C editing, another situation that didn't materialize?

Jenna M ditched Rob C because she saw him as the player who would get the respect votes, in spite of all the alliances he had broken.

Inside the game the players can perceive someone as a winner, at the same time that the jurors give post-boot interviews saying that person was a snake.

Post-boot interviews are often just sour grapes time, interviews given some time after the vote was cast. Especially if a juror found themselves having to vote for someone for gamesmanship, the post-boot interview is a way the juror can shake the F2 people up ...

after all, the contenders probably don't know who won yet and are probably paying as much attention to the comments as we are, looking for clues. As in, Does Alicia really really hate me? She does, she hates all three of them. That's no help.

Back to the S6 analogy--it may be that Jenna picks Amber because Jenna KNOWS that she (Jenna) doesn't have the respect votes. But she does have the girls and Amber ... (I'll pass on the twin joke).

If that is in fact what happened, and Rob went out at F3, would MB give Rob different editing?

I doubt it; he would build up the suspense that we have as to whether the couple betrays each other, and he would give Rob the face time because he's the only one really doing anything strategic, much like Rob C.

In Pearl Islands, Jon's scheming got a lot of time, not because he was going to win, but because none of the other finalists were playing in an interesting way.

For me, it comes down to whether Mariano is a Rob C/Jon Dalton or a Brian/Hatch. I have no conviction yet.

Although the Keith analogy breaks down somewhat, because Keith was never leading the group by the nose the way Rob is, the "this guy is going to end up in the F2 and then lose because people think he's arrogant" editing that Keith got is being given to Rob.

But--Rob may be arrogant, but people like him. Unlike Keith or Jon, he has charm; he has spark; he has a playful spirit. He inspires a modicum of trust from others, unlike Jon Dalton. He's like a Rob C who actually gets the girl. But there we are back at a F3 position.

Personally, I would like to see Rob win, but my gut says that Amber wins. She's getting the Ethan editing, quiet, reasonably nice. She also has people saying snippy things about her in post-boot comments, both from Kathy and from Alicia, which a winner should get, but the comments aren't as nasty as those about Jenna.

Let's face it, none of the jurors we have so far like any one of these three. It's going to be another "lesser of two weevils" vote.

All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by Loree on 04-29-04 at 10:16 AM
Rewatching last episode I found it interesting that Tom and Alicia were talking and they both felt they could not beat Rob in the final 2. They felt they would be better in a F2 against each other. They both seemed to think he would get the votes at that time. Rob is liked in a way that his tribe looks to him as the one playing the game. We see the nasty comments and digs Rob makes about the others. But he has been careful this season to keep his mouth in check when talking to each person. It drove him crazy, but he even learned to button his lip around Alicia. They grudgingly realize he deserves the win if he is in the F2.
"Shii Ann may have given Rob 2nd"
Posted by emydi on 04-30-04 at 09:16 AM
After last nite's TC speech and vote by Shii Ann for little green eyed Amber, if Jenna was listening, she may realize that Amber, being the nice one behind Rob's wickedness, would get more votes than Rob and take him to the finals with her *if she wins F3 immunity.

emydi

"RE: Shii Ann may have given Rob 2nd"
Posted by Bebo on 04-30-04 at 09:35 AM
But would a Rob-Jenna final mean that Jenna has the votes to win?

- Lex has said he would not vote for Rob unless he was against someone who just rode coattails to get there.
- Both Alicia and Shii-Ann find Jenna annoying. Shii-Ann is definitely going to vote for the person she thought played the better game, and from her comments, I doubt that she would consider Jenna a better player than Rob.
- If Jenna wins F3 IC, she will either be screwing over alliance mate Rupert at that point, or she would probably have been involved in doing so at an earlier point. Odds are that they will not be able to vote out Rupert without Jenna's cooperation. And we all know Rupert would carry a grudge. Yes, he has a F4 pact with Rob, but it's been implied he has an F2 with Jenna, and that betrayal would stick out more for Rupert than Rob choosing Ambuh over him.
- Tom can't stand Jenna either. Would his male pride guide him to vote for the guy who took him out instead of a whiny girl?

With the editing the way it is right now, I just can't see Jenna being edited as a winner. She's being edited as the perfect F2 opponent - the one whom anyone could beat.

Snarky, smart, S7 Anti-Bootee Champ

"Yup"
Posted by Breezy on 04-30-04 at 09:39 AM
With the editing the way it is right now, I just can't see Jenna being edited as a winner. She's being edited as the perfect F2 opponent - the one whom anyone could beat.

Right now I'm leaning to a Amber wins final immunity and takes Jenna. She figures she can beat Jenna but can't beat Rob.


Just say no to trolls.


"RE: Yup"
Posted by Bebo on 04-30-04 at 09:45 AM
This would fit with the foreshadowing comments. There have been a number of times that Rob's commented on how solid he and Amber have been as an alliance. Yet we've also seen him express concern that she may be trying to play him, and his brother brought up the same thing last night.

Could a key quote be Mike's reminder to "TRUST.NO.ONE"?

Snarky, smart, S7 Anti-Bootee Champ

"RE: Yup"
Posted by true on 04-30-04 at 09:57 AM
Oh I hope not, but I'm afraid you're right.

Last night cleared up why Jenna would take Rob over Amber to the finals. (Shii's target on Amber)

I'm convinced that they are the final 3.

I do think that Amber would cut Rob in a heartbeat. She'd be stupid not to take Jenna over Rob if she has the choice. (although, I think Rob would stay loyal to Amber in the same situation.)


"RE: Yup"
Posted by Breezy on 04-30-04 at 10:07 AM
Rob could stay true *waves to True* to Amber, and still win though. Amber can't be sure to do the same.

"RE: Yup"
Posted by true on 04-30-04 at 10:56 AM
I'm not so sure, Breezy.

Both Rob and Amber have the best shot to win if they go up against Jenna.

If Rob were to cut Amber at the end, I don't think they'd still be together, but I do see him sticking with her, even if she cuts him. I think he'd realize that Amber would have a better chance against Jenna, and he'd forgive her. But, I don't see Amber being as forgiving.


"Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 10:32 AM
I would have to say that Shii Ann tanked the game for Jenna last night and clinched it for Amber. Rob won't be getting to the final 2, imo, and I think it will be Amber that takes him out.

As far as the editing for the viewing public, this played like the F6 episode in Thailand when Jake, the last of the Sook Jais, tried to tell everyone that Brian and Clay were going to be the final 2, and everyone ignored him. Shii Ann played Jake's role last night, signaling an Amber win. And I think it's going to happen.


"Shii Ann's bragging"
Posted by Loree on 04-30-04 at 10:41 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-30-04 AT 10:42 AM (EST)

Shii Ann was practically screaming to the viewers that Jenna/Rob/Amber are the final 3 on The Early Show. She kept talking about how Rupert and Tom were happy to settle for 4th and 5th and they would not listen to her. She said it several times about trying to talk to Alicia, Rupert and Tom. How she knew how it would work out for them and they still didn't listen. I think her web chat could be interesting because she likes to brag so much about what she knew that she may slip up about the final 2.

"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by emydi on 04-30-04 at 11:12 AM
Good analogy about Jake in S5 I had forgotten about that--but i have forgotten a lot of S5

Here's my take FWIW--

It will be a Romber/Jenna F3

1. Jenna wins IC she picks Rob to go with her

Jenna cant win against green eyed Amber.


2. Rob wins IC he's taking his sweethaht Amber

Rob has a less chance to win over Jenna bc of the 3 Knives in back already--I know, I know, Rob could win a respect vote-but for this jury its not about respect its personal and LKA will not pick Rob vs. Jenna, no matter how obnoxious Jenna is)Rupert will be her 4th vote, Rob is going to knife Rupert too.

3. Amber wins IC--surprise--SHE TAKES JENNA-screws Rob
(both figuratively and ...)


JURY VOTES-JENNA V. AMBER

Lex: Jenna 75% chance
Kathy: Jenna 100%
Alicia: Amber 100%
Shii: Amber 100%
Tom: Amber 100%
Rupert: Jenna 75%
Rob: Amber 99%


Amber wins 4-3 at worst 6-1 at best

JURY VOTES-JENNA V. ROB

Lex: Jenna 66 2/3%
Kathy: Jenna 75%
Alicia: Jenna 50%
Shii: Rob 100%
Tom: Rob 100%
Rupert: Jenna 80%
Amber: Rob 100%

This is the shakiest vote because of the LKA talk of Knives in back vs. voting for the person who played. These % may change depending on how Rupert is taken out.

Jenna has no chance against Amber--she has to take Rob

JURY VOTES-AMBER V. ROB

Lex: Rob 66 2/3%(wouldnt that be the sweetest irony-Lex is the deciding vote)
Kathy: Rob 85% (remember the lie Amber told)
Alicia: Amber 100%
Shii: Amber 100%
Tom: Rob 95%
Rupert: Rob 75% (not sure about this-depends on how Rupert is taken out)
Jenna: Amber 95%


Rob 4-3 or Amber 4-3 I think this would be the most interesting jury vote of them all!!!!


Jenna only has a chance over Rob to win. Rob has a better
chance over Amber. Amber has the better chance over
Jenna. Very interesting...

Now flame away all


emydi

"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-30-04 at 11:38 AM
I don't know about all of this. I DO definately agree that Amber's best chance to win would be to pull off an IC win for the final three and choose Jenna to go to the finals over Rob, but, I just can't see this happening. She is playing the game and signaling some doubt regarding her and Rob to others, but I think that's just misdirection on her part. I would love to see Amber do this, but I don't think it'll happen.

If Jenna wins the final IC, I think her BEST bet is to choose Rob over Amber...but I still think Rob will beat her. Jenna was controlling, bossy, brown noser, coat tail rider. I definately think that Kathy, Alicia, Shii, Tom, and even Rupert would vote for a Rob win over Jenna, perhaps even Lex. That's how strongly I feel that Jenna could not beat Rob in the finals. Rupert may end up giving his vote to Jenna only if she does not cast a vote against him and betray their alliance. (TC ends in a tie, and due to Rupert having more previous votes, he loses.)

I think if one of Romber wins the final IC that they will indeed choose each other. In this event, I think that Rob will win. I think that even Alicia would vote for Rob over Amber(she does'nt respect those that coat tail ride, and defer to the other players, and I think she sees Amber that way.


"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by Loree on 04-30-04 at 01:08 PM
I don't think Jenna could beat anyone left in the game. She may have beat Alicia because nobody really cared for her. But of everyone left I don't think Jenna could win even if she gets to the final 2. She was seen by most as bossy and a coattail rider.
"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by emydi on 04-30-04 at 01:11 PM
I think she has a chance against Rob. Those knives are still stinging...

emydi
and a SWOOP!!

"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 01:16 PM
I don't.

I give Alicia an 80% likelihood of voting for Rob in a Rob-Jenna matchup. And, as Bebo pointed out above, Rupert will probably get voted out with Jenna's assistance, which he would see as a bigger betrayal than votes from Rob, Amber or Tom. In that event, she loses Rupert's jury vote as well.


"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by bdemoney on 04-30-04 at 02:27 PM
I agree with your deductions BR. I don't think Jenna would win against either Rob or Amber. Rob has done more to deserve being in the final two, and Amber is more well liked than Jenna and may even be seen as the "mastermind" behind the Romber combo.

Although I do feel that Jenna would have a better chance against Amber in the final two (more so than Rob) since Amber played pretty much the same game as Jenna did.

Up until now I had been thinking that if the final two was Amber and Jenna it would be because Jenna picked Amber over Rob, but now with the editing changes I can begin to imagine Amber picking Jenna over Rob if she wins final immunity.

She may realize that it would be much easier for her to beat Jenna in the final two than for her to beat Rob.

I guess the question is, if Amber did pick Jenna over Rob would his ego have been too bruised for him to have continued his relationship with her afterwards? Since we know they are still dating now.

"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by Crash Thompson Jr on 04-30-04 at 03:34 PM
Even though I dig what Shii did last night, after watching an episode from Africa, I'm convince that if Kelly had been in All-Stars, Boston Rob would've been out a long time ago.

But anywho. I think Rob's gonna be 3rd, because lately, even though he's been dominating, he's getting a slightly negative editing. Being lazy, making really jerk remarks (like the thing about Lex last night). Good enough editing to make the F3, but probably can pull it off in the end (like my boy Johnny Fairplay), while Amber is getting flattering editing. People talking about how she's the most conniving one out there, Shii saying she'll win. And of course Jenna getting a negative editing. I'm thinking Amber cuts off Rob at the end and takes Jenna.

Wouldn't that be a surprise enough for CBS to claim it'll shock everyone? Amber DOESN'T take Rob to the F2?

Just some thoughts.

"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 03:54 PM
I guess the question is, if Amber did pick Jenna over Rob would his ego have been too bruised for him to have continued his relationship with her afterwards?

I really get a sense that Rob would be impressed if Amber did this. Sort of like in S6, when Rob Cesternino gave Jenna Morasca props for being the only person who managed to get him out of the game, when he thought he had everything under control. Okay, they weren't a romantic item like Romber, but they've remained good friends since then. I see Rob M. having the same sort of reaction.


"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by emydi on 04-30-04 at 04:22 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-30-04 AT 04:32 PM (EST)

Not at first. Rob reacts to things strongly. Remember last nite when he used his last match...he doesnt like to lose. And to be taken out by her...

Although, in reacting to Ambuh voting him out, he may take the other route and act like the wounded puppy dog...

Rob would vote for Ambuh over Jennuh no matter what.

As for after the fact, he would then cool down, and make the most of it.
"Worst case scenario....we spend her million"

I still think this would be a breach of contract and totally unfair to the other persons that played the game. This is a legitimate "it's unfair" statement because its not a twist in the game like the Outcasts, but rather two people acting as one which is against "no conspiring" clause.

Hey you think the other ##### or EPMB will hire me for their cases?

16 ##### and EPMB and throw in Donald Trump too v. Romber


emydi

"RE: Shii Ann's powers"
Posted by ulalame on 04-30-04 at 06:53 PM
As for after the fact, he would then cool down, and make the most of it. "Worst case scenario....we spend her million"

I still think this would be a breach of contract and totally unfair to the other persons that played the game. This is a legitimate "it's unfair" statement because its not a twist in the game like the Outcasts, but rather two people acting as one which is against "no conspiring" clause.


Not if they're married

"legal mumbo jumbo"
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-30-04 at 09:05 PM
>I still think this would be
>a breach of contract and
>totally unfair to the other
>persons that played the game.
> This is a legitimate
>"it's unfair" statement because its
>not a twist in the
>game like the Outcasts, but
>rather two people acting as
>one which is against "no
>conspiring" clause.
>


...its only "conspiring" if they conspire before she wins. Its not "conspiring" if she wins and then decides to give him some money. heck, she could win and then announce at the finale that she's decided in the past few weeks to give Rob half the money. As long as they didn't plan it BEFORE the show ended, its okay.


Now that will be $150 please.

"$150, is that it?"
Posted by emydi on 04-30-04 at 10:16 PM
But the conspiring could have occurred during #####. The cameras were not always on Romber. Most cases are made on circumstantial evidence no smoking gun.

Without knowing the exact wording of the contract, it's hard to determine what would be crossing the line of "conspiring."

But, why would they put Rob's quote about the worst case scenario about not winning but getting the girl and sharing the money? That's possible evidence of a "let's share the mil" or "won't it be great if one of us wins and we can do this and go there, yada yada yada" conversation btw Romber.

Therefore, maybe Jenna wins it and any possible "conspiracy" is moot. EPMB keeps the quote in ### because it never comes to pass, neither of them win, but the quote make good tv.

EPMB will not chance a fight against him for a Romber conspiracy of sharing the money. Tina and Vee were very careful not to appear to share the money, motorcycle aside.

I'm arguing this bc I am not convinced of an Amber win or that Rob can't finish in 2nd. In this case, with these jurors--LKA, it's not all going to be about the type of play but how Romber ###### them over. The editing has provided evidence of a Jenna win, although it has changed in the last 2 weeks.

emydi

"RE: $150, is that it?"
Posted by ulalame on 05-01-04 at 01:59 PM
I don't think either of them would be so dumb as to actually "share" the prize. However, if Amber wins and she's dating Rob, there's nothing in the contract that says she can't pay for dinners, buy him things and generally spend money on him. It would only be a breach of their obligations if she wrote him a check for $500,000, which I can't see her doing under any circumstance.
"still wrong"
Posted by shakes the clown on 05-01-04 at 02:40 PM
>I don't think either of them
> It would only be
>a breach of their obligations
>if she wrote him a
>check for $500,000, which I
>can't see her doing under
>any circumstance.

...no, as long as she didn't agree to do it BEFORE the final TC votes were cast, she can write him a check for the whole mil if she really wanted to. There's no breach in that.

The contract is very clear. You can not conspire to share the prize money before or while playing the game, nor can you make promises of gifts prior to winning the money. But, anything you want to do AFTER you win is perfectly legal and not at all shady.


"RE: still wrong"
Posted by okaloosajohn on 05-03-04 at 01:05 PM
"...nor can you make promises of gifts prior to winning the money. "

How did Tina and Colby get away with the motorcycle agreement, then? Wasn't that made prior to winning the money?


"RE: still wrong"
Posted by dabo on 05-03-04 at 01:14 PM
There's a lot of PR concerns that go into how and when they enforce certain aspects of the contracts, a Harley between friends just isn't worth looking like the big bad meanies over.

Splitting the pot, though, is a different matter. We've already seen a Rob comment that he was thinking along those lines during the game, but there's been nothing from Amber to indicate she's given it a signle thought.

"RE: $150, is that it?"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-03-04 at 12:34 PM
But the conspiring could have occurred during #####. The cameras were not always on Romber. Most cases are made on circumstantial evidence no smoking gun.

It's just happenstance that they are still dating now. During the game I'd bet Rob and Amber weren't totally sure if their relationship would continue once the game was over -- they live quite a distance away from each other. They certainly would not have been sure enough about it for one to promise the other a chunk of the million dollars ahead of time, imo.


"Pulling this back up to the top....."
Posted by MDSkinner on 05-09-04 at 06:17 PM
For any of those who are in any way curious to see Shakes opinion on this, in what I think is a pretty good argument, I want to pull this back to the top for the last couple of hours before showtime.

If what Snewser says is true (which there is no reason to believe otherwise, since he/she has been perfect all year), and Shakes logic is sound, this would mean that the final four in order will be Rupert, Jenna, Amber and the winner will be Rob. Any additional thoughts?

"RE: Pulling this back up to the top....."
Posted by Drive My Car on 05-09-04 at 06:20 PM

Works for me!


"RE: Pulling this back up to the top....."
Posted by Loquatrix on 05-09-04 at 06:41 PM
Of all the possible outcomes, the most likely at this point is a Romber F2 (based on the fact that most major spoiling sources agree that it is), in which case a Rob win would be very satisfactory indeed for me, while an Amber win would be extremely unsatisfactory.

So, I am rooting wholeheartedly for a "shakes was right" result.

"RE: Pulling this back up to the top....."
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 05-09-04 at 07:22 PM
I want shakes to be right too.

Snewser's hint points to an Amber win though, with the "seraphaem was right" password. I wish he had said "orangeena is right"!

If shakes is wrong, it was still a good argument, but the counter to a lot of arguments about editing and story arc is simple: that's what happened and that's what they had to work with.

They went with the best TV DURING the show by showing the anti-Rob animosity that was real enough--knowing that they weren't going to get the big bang surprise that Rob turns it around at the end.

Say Amber won. Would they have left out the negative feelings towards Rob? Censored them? And replaced them with ... what?

I still hope Rob wins and will be happy to give shakes a cheer if it works out! I'm feeling pessimistic though.

All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne

"RE: According to the editing, Rob can ONLY finish first or maybe third"
Posted by BoBoSYD on 05-09-04 at 07:58 PM
I can see the fun in guessing, based on the presentation of the show, who the winner is. But I wish there were more colourful contenders running down that final leg. There wouldn't need to be any careful editing to create suspense leading up to the finale. The survivors themsleves would create all the entertainment.

I would have lurved to see a boy-named-Sue still in the final. Screeching and staring her way into the ##### records as final top-dog. But not Richard, that obsessive compulsion to be nude is just weird (I'm guessing he was nude under those fuzzy bits that smaller before they got larger!).
And Colby, he was slick man, Texas Oil got nothing on him! I luve me some muscle but I luve me more one cute smile and that Tarzan stance. Oh come back, I'm your Jane...AHHHAAAAA HAAA
Ethan? He won something didn't he? Was he in #####?
Rudy Rudy where have you gone? Now that our AssNation needs you - your wizened face espousing the Seals' way of life even if it is in a dry, couldn't-be-fricked-with-you-young 'uns kind of way!
- I'll go through the rest later, kinda feeling nostalgic, which makes me sad, which makes me lazy

"...or second."
Posted by shakes the clown on 05-09-04 at 11:09 PM
"RE: ...or second."
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 05-09-04 at 11:23 PM
Exactly shakes. Missed it by that much ...

Does it help to know that Rob should have won if Lex and Tom weren't so blind to their own actions?

All those not on TV have only themselves to blame ~ Jackson Browne

"RE: ...or second."
Posted by Hicksi on 05-09-04 at 11:37 PM
I think Lex knew, from the second he made it, that his decision to support Amber in the TC vote was a mistake.

That was the defining moment, and he has to remember that decision forever. He just HAD to vote against Rawb.

"RE: ...or second."
Posted by Flowerpower on 05-10-04 at 07:31 AM
Definately, if these people had not known each other as they did prior to the show, I do believe Rob would have won in a landslide!

"RE: ...or second."
Posted by tribephyl on 05-10-04 at 03:06 AM
Soooo cute when you're humble.



Pinchy-pinchy

"RE: ...or second."
Posted by Jims02 on 05-10-04 at 10:21 AM
LOL. I think the moral is that people should talk in circles, so we can never say we're wrong!


Jims02: 2004 CMY Anti-Executee Champ