Even if he was in control, Rob faced a dilemma going into the end game. Not knowing when someone was returning from Redemption Island, we heard that Rob's initial plan was to keep Grant in order to have both guys together fighting against the returnee.

However, seeing that the Ometempo's would be going down to 4 at least before someone came back, Rob should have gone after Grant immediately. Having Grant and one of either Mike or Matt in the F5 meant that Rob was going to have to win the F4 immunity against one of them. Now, if the player returns at the start of the finale, Rob only has to win one of the next two immunities to get rid of his strongest opposition, be it Mike, Matt or Grant...or Andrea!

So, the question becomes: Did Ashley, by winning immunity and convincing Rob to get rid of Grant, actually force him to make the right move? Rob said he had been running the numbers in his head for the last few weeks but, unless we only heard part of his confessionals, he really didn't seem to want to eliminate Grant until the last minute.

Ashley winning immunity could turn out to be what gave Morono the million dollars!! Yes, he'll still have to get the votes but talk about a "What If?" for the after season if it turns out this way!

• RE: Did Ashley Force Rob to Make the Right Move?,garyc, 10:29 PM, 05-13-11
  • RE: Did Ashley Force Rob to Make the Right Move?,michel, 11:57 PM, 05-13-11
    • RE: Did Ashley Force Rob to Make the Right Move?,dabo, 02:16 AM, 05-14-11
      • RE: Did Ashley Force Rob to Make the Right Move?,michel, 12:11 PM, 05-14-11
        • RE: Did Ashley Force Rob to Make the Right Move?,dabo, 05:50 PM, 05-14-11
  • RE: Did Ashley Force Rob to Make the Right Move?,iltarion, 00:06 AM, 05-14-11
    • RE: Did Ashley Force Rob to Make the Right Move?,michel, 00:31 AM, 05-14-11
    • RE: Did Ashley Force Rob to Make the Right Move?,garyc, 02:28 PM, 05-14-11

When exactly does the RI victor come back into the game? If at final five do you think Ashley can convince Natalie to try to get rid of Rob? Based on what was shown I don't think Grant would have agreed to target Rob.

I think the answer to your question is still considered a spoiler as it hasn't been mentioned on the show.

But as for what Ashley would do, I think Rob's most dangerous TC will be if he doesn't have immunity at F4. Phillip, being such a good goat, has one seat reserved. If Rob is there with Ashley and Natalie, he will have to convince one that he is less likely to get votes than the other girl.

I think the answer to your question is still considered a spoiler as it hasn't been mentioned on the show.

As for what this site regards as spoiler or not spoiler for this forum, that is not my decision. That said, having run the vote threads these many years..

I do not regard what has been revealed by CBS via TV promos or on their website as spoilers for the purposes of this forum. Whatever spoiler value these things may have, it has been put out there for everyone, it's their own stuff for their own hype purposes, so I attach no fault to it. This is an entirely different thing from disgruntled Russhole leaks.

??

I didn't mean it was my decision but I preferred to be safe than sorry.

Yes, promos are public domain but the vidcap thread and the CBS clues are in spoilers, aren't they?

That's because they are useful for spoiling.

What I meant to say above: I understand your reticence about spoilers in this forum. The standards I use are (1) is it a leak? (Yes, then it is definitely a spoiler) and (2) is it likely to cause upset and complaints in this forum. For the latter even if I don't regard it as definitively a spoiler, it's just not worth blowing up the forum.

LAST EDITED ON 05-14-11 AT 00:13 AM (EST)

In that F4, michel, Phillip and Natalie vote for Ashley. She's gone. The only way I see it being an issue is if Phillip had immunity. THEN, he might have the guts to move on Rob. Otherwise, he would be too concerned about the girls both voting for him, and he would vote however Rob told him.

I think it is obvious that Rob sees Mike or Matt as the biggest threats. I agree that MIKE is the biggest threat. I don't think Matt wins a majority of the votes after being voted out twice. So, Rob wanted to keep Grant around as insurance against either of those guys. I think Rob believes, correctly, that he could probably beat Grant in a vote if he had to, though he would prefer to not have to.

However, that all being said, I do think this was the right move for Rob. Afterall, doesn't Grant have just as good a chance to beat Matt and Mike on RI as he does afterward? Either way, Rob is going to have to deal with Grant, Mike, or Matt at F5. Rob should be hoping for RI to end at F5 because that will give him 2 chances to beat whoever it is that comes back, while the HII should still protect him at F5.

And ALL that being said, I think we all know by now that Grant, Mike, Matt, Andrea, and Ashley are ALL non-threats per the editing. By the edit, I would say it is obvious only Rob, Phillip or Natalie have a chance to win, and likely not Natalie either.

>

I've always said you should join us in the editing thread. What I can say here is that I've read editing analysis by different posters that support more than only those 3.

LAST EDITED ON 05-14-11 AT 09:59 PM (EST)

Can't see Phillip winning. He's ticked off too many people. Possibly if he goes against Natalie and Ashley.

Could see Mike or Andrea or Grant as threats to win. Any or all should be willing to go after Rob if they come back at final five. Not sure what competitors are thinking about the II. Wouldn't be surprised if they think Rob has it. If so targeting Phillip might be a good tactic. Hope Rob plays the idol and try to go after him at final four.

Rob's been outperforming Grant at most of the recent challenges. Pure athleticism has not been a big, if any, advantage in most of the recent challenges.