From early this season, Intertops has had two betting opportunities for Survivor:

1) Who will last longer: Amber or Boston Rob

and

2) Who will outlast Amber and Boston Rob?

The second had choices of all the people except all the people who are now booted.

As of this weekend, this 2nd question has been eliminated. I know the last I checked, Tom's results were 1.01 to 1, and Jenna was 2nd at 4.5 to 1.

Last season, they ran both of these type questions until the last episode: the two questions being: Who will last longer, Osten or Sandra; and Who will outlast Sandra. Lillian was favored in a longshot, and was probably? paid as the correct answer being that she lasted as long as Sandra (or possibly no one won, which I think they'd have to refund bets, but don't know rules)...

Anyway, I find it odd, that the "Who will outlast Amber and Rob" question has been eliminated from the site.

The only reasons I could think of would be: 1)Amber and Rob are the Final 2 and thus no one outlasts them, or 2) Amber and Rob both finish 3rd or below, leaving too many winners for the site to make money on this bet, or 3) The Tom numbers jumped up to favorite almost out of nowhere which could bring the site fear of Insider information...

Whatever the reasoning, on the Outlast Rob and Amber, none of the bootees up to Lex were even given as choices to bet from...you could bet on them but you'd have to email them for current odds; so it seems they must have an insider source of some kind...

• RE: Intertops website,KLicK, 08:52 PM, 04-12-04
  • RE: Intertops website,FSUGUY, 11:29 PM, 04-12-04
    • RE: Intertops website,cowboyroo, 00:24 AM, 04-13-04
      • RE: Intertops website,FSUGUY, 09:22 AM, 04-13-04
• RE: Intertops website,Markopolo100, 02:22 AM, 04-13-04
  • RE: Intertops website,Brat2u, 10:27 AM, 04-13-04
  • RE: Intertops website,leannerenee, 12:57 PM, 04-13-04
    • RE: Intertops website,okaloosajohn, 01:15 PM, 04-13-04
• RE: Intertops website,FSUGUY, 12:06 PM, 04-15-04
  • Follow the money,cowboyroo, 01:34 PM, 04-17-04

A poster at SurvivorAddicts has kept track of the betting/options/odds at Intertops since 2/19. The thread is very long, but the poster, charlesfloyd, gives an excellent analysis of betting trends.

Link

HUH?

I just went there and everything is still there....drop some $$ on jenna will ya!

They must have had it down for a bit...it wasn't a betting option for a couple of days....Tom's at 1.01, Jenna's now down to 5.

I wonder what they do if Amber/Rob are Final 2?

Intertops wins them all if it's a Rob/Amber final, as nobody out lasts them.

Odds are set by an 'Expert' at the start. Then as people begin to wager it moves...more money=lower odds,etc...

The Expert must have Intel it's a Rob/Amber final or they were stupid enough to believe the CBS boot list.....

Cowboyroo thanks for the link.

We have to analyze the betting odds as part of our spoiling efforts.

Something is fishy. I have a feeling our "projected final 7" isn't totally correct in order.

Right after the spoilers came out of Romber being the F2, they stopped taking bets on them. They are worried IF it panned out, it would be a huge loss for the Book.

What is the "Project final 7"? I have been combing the boards for a boot list other than the first fake one. Can someone PLEASE help me out here???

The projected final 7 has been Rob, Amber, Jenna, Rupert, Tom, Alicia and Shii Ann (not necessarily in that order) for quite some time. (see Marcopolo's STS at http://www.londyscreations.com/survivornetwork/sts.asp )

OK....
I was just on the website and now question 1 is gone......

hmmmmmm......

maybe it got too lopsided......rob?

Both questions are back up. Tom is now still at 1.01 and Jenna is down to 7 to 1. For Tom to be at 1.01, there has to be a LOT of betting on him. And those that win, won't win jack.

As Snewser pointed out last season with a Sandra win, our best bet is to follow the money.

So Tom's odds probably tells us a few things. I can't see ANY WAY he would be at such great odds to "survive without Rob and Amber" unless there were some insider betting going on.

So....

This could mean:

A) Rob and Amber are Final 2 and Tom comes in 3rd. This is the most likely option because in the vote of who survives longer Rob or Amber, the voting is not as far out of whack. Rob at 1.79, and Amber at 1.91. Pretty close betting.

So, Tom coming in 3rd would make the most sense if looking at the betting. There has to be a winner in the bet, and if Romber are 1 and 2, Tom would "outsurvive" them by default.

B) Tom is in Final 2 with either Rob or Amber. The most likely way I would see this happening are if Rob/Amber/Tom are the Final 3 and Amber wants to prove she is "playing the game" and not following on Rob's coattails by taking Tom to the Final 2, which could gain her some respect.

C) Unlikely option: Tom makes Final 2 with someone other than Rob or Amber. However, those with Insider Information making bets would bet on that other party and not have such outrageous odds on Tom I would think.

If you were to "Follow the money", most likely scenario is:

Tom comes in 3rd

Amber and Rob are Final 2.