I think this merge may be the biggest mishmash of any merge ever.

You have the solid O tribe of - Rob, Grant, Ashley and Natalie
Andrea who know's she's a fifth and is just waiting for Matt to come back
Matt who is most likely returning
then there's far out Phillip

Then you have the "chicken-without-a-head" Z tribe.
A solid alliance of David, Julie, Ralph and Steve
Mike - who knows he's fifth

So how do they all re-align with the merge?

Phillip would jump ship to any one that fawned over him a little. I could see him going to the Z's easily.

Matt has been warned time after time that the Z's suck. But Rob hurt his feelings by blindsiding him. So does he stick with the O's, knowing that he and Andrea are 5th and 6th or does he try to figure out how to make his own alliance. He has Andrea in his back pocket, Andrea has been decent to Phillip, Mike could possibly be swayed to play with Wonderboy, but that still leaves only 4. And then you'd have a 4, 4, 4 split.

Rob has the HII, but has not telling his alliance hurt him? He plays it, saving himself for one week but then his alliance has cause not to trust him. He NEEDS to persuade Matt to trust him again. I don't know if that's possible. Either that or convince Mike to join him, but I don't know how he'd convince Mike he's not on the bottom of his/Rob's alliance and because Mike would just be trading 5th for 5th.

You know Rob's sitting down with little stick figures trying to figure out his next move.

• RE: Thoughts on next week?,dabo, 01:28 PM, 04-01-11
  • RE: Thoughts on next week?,Tummy, 03:34 PM, 04-01-11
    • RE: Thoughts on next week?,iltarion, 04:45 PM, 04-01-11
      • RE: Thoughts on next week?,sportsjoe, 04:54 PM, 04-01-11
        • RE: Thoughts on next week?,garyc, 09:26 PM, 04-01-11
          • RE: Thoughts on next week?,Tummy, 11:58 AM, 04-02-11

You forgot Sarita. Fractured as Zapatera is, if Sarita wins the duel she returns a hero and takes Zap into the merge at parity with Ometepe, six to six. Unlikely as it seems, that would make for the most exciting game. Phillip is ready to jump, mainly to strike back at Rob, he probably would just for the respect of Zapatera. Not that it would be real respect but Phillip wouldn't realize that. Andrea would then be on the fence.

Rob's ace in the hole is no one knows he has the HII. That may actually be about as much of a secret as Israel's nukes, no one knows it but... Logically, someone has to have that HII by now and process of elimination narrows down to Rob being most likely. Still, he does have it, and he may be forced to use it.

Everyone knows Rooster has the HII, Zap's problem (regardless of who wins the duel) is figuring out who Rob's target would be and convincing Rooster to part with his HII if need be.

If Matt returns it is a matter of how Rob deals with it, what he tells Matt about why he was booted in the first place. Rob can't make up some nonsense, it has to make sense even if it is a lie.

I didn't forget Sarita - I just went with a gut feeling that says that Matt is getting the edited of being the comeback kid. I will truly be surprised if it's a Sarita upset. But you're right, a Sarita win puts a whole new spin on anything because she won't flip.

Rob may be able to convince Zapetera that he and therefore Ometepe wants to get rid of Phillip. Being a smart player he then figures that they'll try to boot him off and plays the immunity idol and they get rid of Ralph. I don't think Ralph is savvy enough to know when he should play it. Rob will figure he'll need to find another immunity idol since most likely one or both will be back in play or he'll need to go on an immunity run.

LAST EDITED ON 04-01-11 AT 04:48 PM (EST)

Safety lies in numbers so I would expect the first vote to go very much along tribal lines regardless of what happens.

The editing has been pretty emphatic in pounding the Zap6 for throwing that challenge; so, I don't expect Sarita to come back. If she did, we would have a 6-6 tie at merge, and therefore, what would the point have been? Though I admit that Survivor doesn't necessarily have to have a point.

If Sarita did come back, her and Ralph would be a definite sub-alliance within the Zap6. Again, they might vote with the Zap6 initially just for the safety of the numbers, but I think they would definitely be a swing vote couple similar to what Vecepia and Sean were back in Marquesas (yeah, I know, too long ago). The other 4 members of Zapatera not only just voted Sarita out, but they allowed her to blithely go to TC without her things without giving her any heads up of what was coming. I think it is safe to say she can no longer trust any of them, and I would say she is completely aware of that.

Things do get a little more interesting if Matt comes back, as we expect, but I would still think Ometepe sticks together for at least one vote or two. Even if Phillip, Andrea, Matt and David (not Mike) can form an alliance, that isn't enough people to make a difference until you have at least a 4-4-3 split.

I agree though, this could be one of the most interesting merges we've seen in a while. With Phillip, David, and Matt, you have 3 true wildcards that could go a number of different ways.

You also have an entirely unique HII situation. One guy has an HII that EVERYONE knows about, and another guy has an HII that NO ONE else knows about.

>

I'm very glad for the merge and agree that there are plenty of potential wild cards flipping to make an alliance. I still find it quite comical how ##### pathetically stupid Ometeppe can be. Gee George, let me grab the clue right in front of you all while we're enjoying the reward together. Maybe next time I'll just wear the HII on my neck in front of you and see if you notice. Good thing is, he won't be able to get away with that ##### once they're merged.

If I'm Matt I listen to Rob's explanation (if he has one) and then discard it and look for other options. But I'm not Matt & I don't know how heavily his religion will play into his thinking. He's liable to disappoint either way; either play Christian and likely be used and tossed away, or be another player who sees himself as more ethical than he plays.

I think if Rob goes to Matt and seems very sincere in his explanation "I saw you and Andrea getting closer and saw myself and Amba in that and I got worried you ditch me", then being a Christian Matt is likely to forgive. But if he remembers Rob from past seasons he'll forgive but he won't forget.

Floating my cares away with Agman - 2011