'Pagonging' is passe...

Even if new tribe members were absorbed into the new tribes, there are bound to be members of the destination tribe who feel marginalized from their group and are waiting for some new allies to appear.

Susan and Alicia for example...

And you just know Shii Ann is certainly capable of switching her allegences at the drop of a buff.

Now that alliance strategies have become so fluid over the last few seasons of Survivor, there is no need to give the absorbed members protection.

Sheesh... next you'll have the tribes getting fire and blankets given to them on the third day, and free tools and building materials, and rice and booze...

oh, wait... nevermind

i agree - especially since we're still pre-jury, players will be as likely to realign as not

LAST EDITED ON 02-22-04 AT 02:29 AM (EST)

Ethan vs. Tom at IC

Well, we know for sure Saboga LOSES the RC.

At the IC:

Tom is battling Ethan
Tom is battling Shii Ann
Rob M is battling Ethan

Therefore:

Ethan and Shii Ann are on the same tribe. That means Mogo Mogo or Saboga have to lose the RC and be dissolved.

BUT

We see Sue, Amber and Jenna L. in the same pic.

Therefore THEY MUST be at Chapera. Because Chapera can't be dissolved.

Saboga's Jenna L is at Chapera and therefore she got switched and Saboga lost the RC.

Mark

A full complete thought process is available here
http://www.londyscreations.com/survivornetwork/spoilers.asp

Nice analysis, Marko. The new pic over there of Rich going against "black shorts" is very intriguing. Could it be Jenna? That will solve the mystery of where Rupert goes, as you say. I agree with someone above that Rupert may just outlast Hatch, instead of having a hand in getting rid of him, hence "beating" Richard. Rupert IS that simple minded. Also, if he has a hand in winning the IC that leads to Richard's demise, he will also feel like he beat Richard. It just doesn't seem like both Rupert AND Ethan would go to the same tribe. And I doubt Rich will make it to a merge . . . .

Anyway, like your analysis and the new site.

>the new pic over there of Rich going against "black shorts"is very intriguing. Could it be Jenna?<

Here is the pic with Rich going against the black shorts, and I think if you look closely you can see what appears to be stripes of some sort on the side of the shorts....

Now here are some earlier vidcaps of Jenna and what appears to be stripes on the sides of her shorts. I think that Rich is indeed pushing off Jenna L. Therefore they are on opposing teams....now if we could just find a buff!

Flowerpower

LAST EDITED ON 02-22-04 AT 11:07 PM (EST)

Okay, I didn't realize that Dicque played for both teams...

But good deducing there, Flower! That confirms for me that they're still on separate teams.

LAST EDITED ON 02-22-04 AT 11:13 AM (EST)

Nice Analysis Marko...TDT reincarnated...

Krautboy

LAST EDITED ON 02-24-04 AT 00:20 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 02-22-04 AT 06:26 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 02-22-04 AT 06:06 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 02-22-04 AT 06:02 PM (EST)

Marko,

Your analyis is great, and probably correct. I just don't want to buy in just yet. I have done so too easily in the past. I am still biased by the Sleek list. So I started to do this post just to question everything.

The picture you discuss about the person in black shorts does look like Jenna in this Vid Cap:

But the next one in sequence looks like a man, with longer shorts. And he/she gets the best of Richard. Lex IMHO.

-------
EDITED the 4th and Final time to say, IT IS DEFINATELY JENNA IN THE VID CAP vs RICHARD. The picture that threw me off is actually of Richards shorts after he tosses Jenna.
-------
Using L or R analysis from the IC. Tom, Rob and Richard appear to be coming from the left. In past challenges of this type, the same tribe comes from the same side for the entire challenge. It looks to me that the only cameras used on the Jiffy side of the pool is the very low camera that catches what looks like Tom tossing Ethan (or Lex? maybe even Colby) Ethan from right when Rob beats him up. Shi Ann looking like she is lining up to come from the Left. So Chapera team of 5 gets Richard and Shi Ann and Saboga team of 4 gets Lex, Colby and Kathy.

And while the person in the forefront of the Sue Amber vid cap is Jenna, she may just be on the tribal mat next to Chapera. Sue's comment of "Welcome to reality" sounds like something she would say for the camera in a larger group. If it is at a challenge it may have to be the IC based on the background. And she is saying it possibly after someone (Ethan perhaps) gets slammed. I noticed in the raft challenge that Jenna is hatless, with hair in ponytail, which is what it looks like in the vid cap shown with Sue, so that is possible that she wore her hair the same at both challenges.

Also I watched the actual CBS video web promo as many of you have I am sure. But the sequence with the rafts shown does not look like the actual challenge. They are paddling slowly. Maybe they are getting in position? And this was the only clip that had parts of all three rafts close so CBS wanted to show it. So again IMHO, I don't think we can speculate on RC winners based on the vid caps of the rafts.

Further speculation. We all know that MB loves Rupert. So why would he hint at Rupert making amends for the shelter with the raft if he fails so miserably and his tribe is disolved? Why would they want to promote that?

Besides your analysis, the only parts of my analysis that really concerns me are
1. When they consolidated to two tribes, they supposedly lived at the Mogo Mogo and Chapera camps.
2. If Sue's comment was made on a tribal mat, the mats would have to be close. And usually during a challenge that each team continues from either side, the tribe usually congregates on that same side. Maybe Sue made the comment to Jiffy in reference to how the IC would happen? Or they keep the mats close together and walk to thier side. Which is maybe why we saw Shi Ann walking to the left side of the challnge?
3. The buffs we can see on Rob, Tom, Shi Ann. I don't know if this is much of a concern. If a tribe is absorbed, it may not be an official merge and all players may just keep their buffs.

Anyway, just trying to keep fresh ideas coming. Please feel free to beat up my ideas, but be nice!

Edited to add concern # 3 and clean up a statement.

Further edited to ask for help from someone who saw S4 Raft challenge. Thanks to Blow by Blow, we have a nice summary of all challenges. The Raft one is described as:
Raft Rescue (S4 Ep3): The tribes receive two identical piles of materials consisting of bamboo poles and rope from which they must construct a raft to paddle. Along the way, they must unclip floating supply boxes and race back to a floating dock. The first tribe to successfully gather the supply crates and race back to the dock wins.

Does anyone know.
a. How did the teams start? On land or water?
b. Do they follow separate courses? Or do they compete to get the items?
Knowing the answers to these questions could help us determine if the vid caps help us at all in our analysis.

GB,

To respond to #1 under your "concerns" - isn't it possible that the 'new' tribe gets to *choose* where to live? Say, miracle of miracles, that Saboga does finish 1 or 2 in the RC, and either there's some sort of general reshuffling (which doesn't seem likely), or the losing tribe (MM or Chapera) gets 'absorbed' into the other two. The new tribe, nominally Saboga, congregates, and they tell their new tribemates "our camp sucks, what about yours? OK, we'll live at yours."

Not sure which way I'm leaning at this point - I was primed for a Richard ouster, just based on the "you won't believe who it is" and "time to go bye bye" sound bites... but I'm wavering.

Anyway, just wanted to throw a possibility out there to support your analysis.

Lizzmac

These vidcaps are out of sequence IMHO. The top one of Rich with someone lunging for him is what I think may be Jenna lunging toward Rich, the second one in the sequence should be the one I posted earlier where you can see the whitish stripes on her shorts, and she has her arm around Rich's legs, then the third one in the sequence, is the second one you posted with Rich's back toward the camera and Jenna overboard in flight to the pond.... That's what I make out of those vidcaps anyway!

Flowerpower

Flower Power,

I agree. Definately Rich vs. Jenna and Jenna takes the bath first. I just started an post that took me like 20 minutes putting together 10 vid caps of shorts. Then I saw it was the person on the left that dumped the person the right and it became clear. It took me a LONG while to see it. I appreciate your description. I wish I would have read it earlier!

I didn't think CBS would be stupid enough to show Lex vs. Rich giving away the outcome anyway.

I haven't posted hear since Survivor Africa, so please bear with me.

I have some thoughts about the discussion going on about the immunity challenge:

Recall that in Thailand, this challenge was more than just a head to head face off on the balance beam. The challenge took place in the ocean, and each team had a number of baskets in their boat. Team members had to go back and forth between the boats stealing the other team's baskets. I believe there was more than one walkway that you could go on, so there wasn't always a face off on the plank. The team that got all the other team's baskets first won. When there was a face-off, you could only hit the other person once both people had entered the attack zone (white area)

So what does that mean for this week? I think the challenge will be the same, with teams trying to retrieve items from one side to the other. That could explain why Shi-anne appears to be on the same side as Rob and Tom are coming from, she may have crossed over to grab something and is waiting for her chance to return to her team's side.

As well, after watching the web preview many times, it does not look like Rob M broke the rules when he hit Ethan. If you watch the preview closely, you can see that when Rob first hits Ethan, he takes one and a half or two steps in the close up shot, then it cuts to the wide shot where they show the two falling off of the platform. If you account for the 1-2 steps that Rob took, it is very possible that the two of them would have been in the white zone when initial contact was made.

Now on to the possible "Shocking" person going home. Right now, I'm thinking that it may be possible that two people are going home. I'm thinking that it is highly likely that Ethan get's hurt (perhaps breaking something) and can't continue, because he does take a nasty fall. Plus looking at the video caps of the survivors faces, it looks like Jenna is looking rather (which she would be if Ethan had to go home, remember, she doesn't want any of the Winners to go far in the game) and Rupert seems to be quite distressed looking. If the board's speculation that Ethan and Rupert end up on Mogo Mogo while Jenna and Jerri go to Chapera is correct, then Not only would Rupert be losing his best alliance partner, but he would feel even more vulnerable if he were on his own and had to compete with Richard for top fisherman status. As well, if Ethan is on Mogo Mogo, then it is a good chance that he would team up with Lex, which would be a perfect alliance for Rupert to join. If Ethan is gone, this alliance is gone as well.

The reason I think two people go, is that I think Rob M is DQ'd. Even though I don't think he broke any rules in the challenge, if they feel he intentionally tried to injure Ethan, that would be grounds for kicking him out of the game. To back this up, I have the glum faces of Rob M (for obvious reasons), and Tom and Susan (two people who would be looking to join Rob and Amber's alliance). Finally, there is the title of next week's episode. Rob M has clearly been the best performer for his tribe in the physical challenges, so his team would definitely be "outraged" if they are forced to lose him, despite the fact that he did not cheat in the challenge.

zolstice,

This may not be the same challenge as in Season 5.
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Season 5 Challenge Description - Pilfering Pirates : The Survivors must race across a narrow bamboo course set over water in order to heist supply baskets from the opposing team's boat. Along the way there is an "attack zone" where the Survivors may physically push one another off the course. First tribe to collect ten baskets of supplies and return back to their boat wins.

-----

So in the challenge shots for ASS, someone should be holding a basket or somthing I would think?

I think most people assumed that this challenge is the one they are using:
Bamboozled (S1 Ep11) Description: A combination balance/elimination competition involving a tightrope race across segments of bamboo poles.

The name of the challenge is Bamboozled, and the name for the upcoming episode of ASS is "I've been Bamboozled".

The vid caps we have seen imply that it is a simple head to head, similar to:
Log Jam (S6 Ep6) Description: Each team stands together on a platform over a mud pit. Between the platforms sits a floating log. Pairs face off in a test of balance and strategy, shaking and spinning the log, each trying to force their opponent to fall off the log into a mud pit. Last one standing on the log wins a point for their tribe. First tribe to earn five points wins.

but with no physical touching.

Looking at vid caps from the three challenges, it doesn't look like any are a perfect fit for a recycled challenge.

This vid cap shows it is a rectangular pool:

This vid cap shows it from the opposite side:

In the second vid cap from the ASS challenge, it looks like a second log a little lower. The pool itself is lined with logs, so this may just be the other side of the pool.

Does any of this help anyone? What do you see?

Good points, here's some more thoughts on the details of the challange. Perhaps it's a combination of "Bamboozled" and "Pilfering Pirates", meaning that there is a series of balance beems joining two towers or platforms. Each team starts on one platform, and must try to get all team members to the other platform first. Each team sends one team member at a time, and when they meet at the center platform, they square off and can only make contact when they are in the white attack zone.

If a survivor falls off at any point, they must return to the platform they started at and go again. That would explain a couple of things:

- It still explains why Shi-anne appears to be on the same side as Tom and Rob M, she has simply crossed sides already

- It would also explain why we see Tom try to run and then falling. Perhaps someone from Mogo Mogo has fallen, and he is trying to get across before they get back to the start, so that he doesn't have to worry about going head to head against anyone.

LAST EDITED ON 02-23-04 AT 00:04 AM (EST)

I like your ideas! I was also wondering why Tom would be running. You can see almost the entire pole, and no one else.

And what you describe was also kindof a challenge in S7! But they added a chess match to it.

Boarding Party (S7 Ep4)
Description: In the pirate tradition of "boarding" or "raiding" another ship, the Survivors had to strategically choose from a pathway of planks and platforms to get all their tribemates across to the other tribe's boat in a game of "human chess." If along the way they came in contact with an opposing tribe member, they could engage them in battle to possess the next platform. The first tribe to "board" the opponents' boat with all their members won. When the tribes converged for the Immunity Challenge, Jeff Probst explained that it would be a battle of strength and balance. The goal was for both tribes to cross a human checkerboard over the water. When face-to-face with an opposing tribe member, a hand-to-hand clash would occur. Whoever lost their balance and hit the water first would have to start over. The first tribe to get all members across the board would win Immunity as well as a surprise reward.

------------

Edited to add:
About the RC, I found two vid caps from Season 4. Someone else probably posted them in some other thread, but they may be helpful here.

In the vid caps we have seen for the ASS version. Where are the tribal flags on the rafts? You would think they would at least copy that portion of the challenge. This leads me to believe that maybe the vidcaps we have seen are before the challenge when they are gathering or preparing. But, these vid caps from S4 also show the entire challenge the boats can be close together as they criss cross, which supports the ASS vid caps being mid-challenge. Hmmmm.

Several people have mentioned that maybe Rob gets disqualified based on this skirmish with Ethan, but I don't see that, based on Probst's body language in the vidcaps.

In the "attack zone" challenge in Thailand, JP was very excitable and physically animated, since practically all the Sook Jais broke the attack rule. I'd think he'd be jumping out of his chair if he thought Robfather was out of bounds. But he looks fairly stationary, he's just cringing/wincing as he watches.