Should - Cirie
Will - Amanda

>Should - Cirie
>Will - Amanda

Ok, I totally botched this one. As the night approached i had a feeling of Paverti. Really Paverti was the one that controlled the whole game and in the end she really pissed off only two people.......Ozzy and James. While those were guaranteed Amanda votes.....Paverti had Alexis and Natalie sewed up. So it came down to Erik, Jason, Cirie and Eliza. I would've leaned towards Erik voting for Amanda and Jason for Paverti. The swing votes were Cirie and Eliza...which in the end both went for Paverti.

Don't be so hard on yourself, Wacko.

Did you know before the Finale that it would be a F2? I didn't. And I truly believe that made a difference here. Add Cirie to a F3 and you probably have a real dog race to the finish.

Natalie wins!

Nat wins immunity, Amanda loses a fire challenge to Cirie.

F3 - Nat, Cirie & Parv

Fans stick with Fans. Nat gets Erik, Jason & Alexis = 3 vote

Parv gets Amanda & Ozzy = 2 votes

Cirie gets James & Eliza = 2 votes

- Natalie can't win. This season, we've been told that "The Game is Harder than Fans Think" and that "Survivor Fans are Dumb".

- I don't think Cirie can win. We heard that her move against Yau Man was stupid in a season where "Too Much Scheming Too Soon Is Bad". That Theme covered the whole pre-merge, from Mary's boot to Ami's and even Eliza who was booted for having "started the game all guns blazing." Cirie's main problem is that she isn't a "Triple Threat".

- Amanda could possibly win but she opposed the women's alliance at first, even if it brought her here. She doubted Parvati even if Parvati was loyal to her and now thinks she can beat Parvati in front of the jury. Being over-confident was said to be the Faves' potential downfall. Amanda also wasn't ready to let Ozzy go even if no one would beat him in the end. Worse, before her "Game On" she was only a background character and Burnett puts his winner up front from the start.

Which leaves Parvati.

- To the challenge that the Fans knew the Faves weaknesses, Parvati started off explaining she knew she had to add dimensions to her game.

- To the Fans' problems coping with the elements, Parvati told them where was the best location for their shelter, learned how to fish from Edwin and was able to relax when the Fans stressed and were miserable.

- If Joel, Mikey, Tracy, Ami and Eliza made the mistake of playing too hard too soon, Parvati explained she plays the game in stages.

- She was the first to make a strong alliance with the Fans just as many players said Fans vs Favorites was over.

- She often reflected on her jury appeal and she made sure that potential winners like Ozzy and Alexis wouldn't reach the end. Eliminating Ozzy was called a good move by both James and Erik. Parvati got the credit for that, both in the recap and at Tribal. She was prepared to eliminate James.

- She is a Triple Threat.

I think Parvati wins.

I want one of Parvati, Cirie or Amanda to win. I'd just have to rewatch the whole season if Cirie and Amanda pull it off!

LAST EDITED ON 05-11-08 AT 03:13 AM (EST)

Editing points.
1. Amanda has been forefront all season and based off my memory has gotten the most confessional time of anyone.
2. After the tribal switch, Malakal dominated every episode. The members of Airai virtually disappeared from the edit. Would a winner come from that tribe? Seems doubtful to me. Cirie and Amanda were on Malakal.
3. Every confessional and secret scene has painted Amanda in a positive light. We were shown one confessional where Parvati called Jason a loser, and Parvati's comments about Erik being the stupidest player ever were also left in the edit. We had a confessional from James disparaging the kind of person Parvati is, and we have been repeatedly reminded of Ozzy's ire towards her.
4. Parvati has not been forefront during the two episodes prior to the finale. She had only 3 confessionals shown, and one of those showed her lazy and perhaps overconfident at Exile Island. Amanda has had 5 confessionals during that time, and Cirie has had 7. Two episodes ago, Parvati was not shown at all until the RC, when they showed everyone.

Now, none of this means Parvati can't win. I still think she can win if Natalie does NOT make the F3 and with a good FTC, which she is capable of. I think Parvati needs the vote of either Natalie or Alexis, and she gets neither if Natalie makes the finals. I am starting to think now, especially after seeing the last two episodes again, that Cirie's chances are better than Parvati's. So, she can still win, but I think the odds are likelier that you are going to need to watch the season again.
Personally, in the editing, I see Ozzy's boot as Parvati's high water mark. That was her greatest move, but also, where the game turned for her. The editing since then has shown James dissing her, Ozzy throwing daggers at her at TC, and has shown in order, Natalie, Amanda and Cirie each forefront in 3 consecutive episodes down the stretch, while Parvati's story has faded to the background.

Revamped odds after reviewing of last two episodes-

Amanda - 5/2
Cirie - 3/1
Parvati - 7/2
Natalie - 30/1

>

LAST EDITED ON 05-11-08 AT 12:05 PM (EST)

Very good points, Iltarion. You really should join us in the editing thread next season. Just two points:

>"After the tribal switch, Malakal dominated every episode. The members of Airai virtually disappeared from the edit. Would a winner come from that tribe? Seems doubtful to me. Cirie and Amanda were on Malakal."

First, Malakal dominated every episode for the wrong reason: They were going to Tribal each time. Nevertheless, Parvati was never forgotten even if most of Airai's time was spent on Jonathan, who was MedEvaced and Kathleen who quit. Also, remember Jonathan's words: "We have the bad beach, but the good tribe." I took that completely useless comment as a hint that the winner was on NuAirai.

>"Revamped odds after reviewing of last two episodes"

I'd postulate that basing odds on the final 2 episodes is the worse course of action possible. That is when the editors are in full misdirection mode.

I prefer to look at the entire season's edit. Yes, Parvati's stretch run is very worrisome but she had a much stronger first 10 episodes. I remember writing the following after episode #5: "If Amanda had to wrestle a shark to get some airtime, what will she have to do next?" What she did next was in episode #12 when she played the idol. That is a huge gap in which she first played fourth string to Cirie, Ozzy and even Ami, the stars of Malakal and then walked around, out of the loop, in the early days of Dabu.

Remember, she wanted Alexis gone first because she was jealous according to Cirie. That storyline was completely abandoned because, when it came to it, Amanda wanted Natalie gone. Not much was explained for her change of heart. Parvati's reasons were given. Remember when I responded to Aruba that showing the Amanda - Parvati conversation could have been more important than a complete surprise at TC. I think the editors needed to showcase Parvati's role, have her say it had to be Alexis. Think of it: It would indeed have been great if we thought Amanda had failed. Her story's continuity would even have been intact since she booted Alexis. Amanda's story was broken up to leave room for Parvati's. THAT was a huge editing decision.

Just more food for thought as I would be very happy with Amanda winning. She did set a record for most days playing Survivor, beating Big Tom's 73 days.

Remember, she wanted Alexis gone first because she was jealous according to Cirie. That storyline was completely abandoned because, when it came to it, Amanda wanted Natalie gone. Not much was explained for her change of heart. Parvati's reasons were given.

Amanda's reasons were given, they showed the conversation she had with Parv "Yeah, but what if she beats us later" And Parv said that Amanda had a good point, but she wants to think about the end...Amanda wanted to keep Alexis because Alexis was injured and she'd be easier to beat in challenges.

LAST EDITED ON 05-11-08 AT 02:09 PM (EST)

But Amanda was worried about "Alexis the motivational speaker", not the athlete. And Natalie had shown nothing in challenges that would explain Amanda's worries.

ETA: "Parv said that Amanda had a good point, but she wants to think about the end"

From early on Parvati has been shown as the one thinking of the end game (I'm in such a hot pickle" even being an episode title) That is usually the winner's role.

Congrats to you Michel for your wonderful analysis that Parvati would win. After these last two posts you pretty much had me convinced that you wre right and I was wrong (but not enough for me to go change my picks in AVG and LL! )

I've fallen for this editing misdirection before, and especially with you around, I won't get fooled again!

Setup by Tribe