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"Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by iltarion on 04-18-08 at 03:37 AM
No spoilers, this is pure conjecture here, but did a fan just win this season or am I much deceived? Unless James can get to the Finals, which is a near impossibility, Cirie is now the only fave who can win this. Meanwhile, Alexis, Natalie and Erik's stock just went up immensely. Parvati has pulled a Rob M, without the hilarious personality and dominant challenge play, and betrayed too many people to win this. So with Amanda on the outs and terrible at FTC anyway, and James the next biggest target, Cirie pretty much is the faves only chance. And even with her, I don't see any of the fans voting for her instead of another fan, who is almost certain to make the Finals. So unless she gets all the faves' votes, she is an unlikely winner as well. Personally, Alexis and Natalie, though practically invisible all game, just jumped into the driver's seat to win this. Are we going to get another Vecepia-like winner? I guess we are due for that.


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"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by garcor on 04-18-08 at 06:59 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-18-08 AT 07:07 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-18-08 AT 07:00 AM (EST)

Not so sure about Cirie's chances of winning either unless she goes up against Parvati at final TC. Ozzy doesn't seem the forgiving type (nice display of sportsmanship in his final comments though at least he was honest about screwing up) and Amanda and James will likely be ticked too once Cirie's role in removing Ozzy becomes clear.

Wonder if fans can take advantage of likely divisions among faves and break them up for good?

Thought Jason the most likely next boot due to challenge ability, but given his obvious unpopularity guess he's the ideal person to keep around as long as possible. As long as he continues to feed them donuts.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 04-18-08 at 07:34 AM
Nah, I think Parvati can still win the game as she's got the personality to work people over - give her time and I'm sure she can rationalize the reasoning behind voting Ozzy out well enough.

Eliza would vote for Parvati in the final TC if she thought Parvati orchestrated the Ozzy boot as she respects good game-play. James would probably still vote for Parvati.

I think it depends on whether there are two Fans and one Fave in the final three or if there are two Faves and one Fan. If it's two Fans (two of Alexis/Nat/Erik, not Jason as there doesn't seem to be any way he'll survive that long) then the Fave should win easily because the jury will have more Faves sitting on it. Voting history suggests that it doesn't matter how someone has played, there's no pattern of how votes will usually go.


"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Wacko Jacko on 04-18-08 at 09:46 AM
>No spoilers, this is pure conjecture
>here, but did a fan
>just win this season or
>am I much deceived? Unless
>James can get to the
>Finals, which is a near
>impossibility, Cirie is now the
>only fave who can win
>this. Meanwhile, Alexis, Natalie and
>Erik's stock just went up
>immensely. Parvati has pulled a
>Rob M, without the hilarious
>personality and dominant challenge play,
>and betrayed too many people
>to win this. So with
>Amanda on the outs and
>terrible at FTC anyway, and
>James the next biggest target,
>Cirie pretty much is the
>faves only chance. And even
>with her, I don't see
>any of the fans voting
>for her instead of another
>fan, who is almost certain
>to make the Finals. So
>unless she gets all the
>faves' votes, she is an
>unlikely winner as well. Personally,
>Alexis and Natalie, though practically
>invisible all game, just jumped
>into the driver's seat to
>win this. Are we going
>to get another Vecepia-like winner?
>I guess we are due
>for that.
>
>
>>


I totally disagree. Paverti and Cirie have been my predicted winners for weeks....no spoilers only editing to go on. Both are playing good games and deserve to win. The prospective jury are players and they can appreciate good game play when they see it. Funny how Ozzy was ok with lying to Jason, but once it happened to him very bitter. I was glad to see him go.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by iltarion on 04-18-08 at 03:36 PM
Well, WJ, they can't both win.
And just because you may have predicted someone to win doesn't mean you should stick with it. Why would anyone vote for Parvati to win? I don't see it. Does stabbing the most people in the back mean playing well? Like we have seen before, Rob M, Jonathan, Rob C, JFP- stabbing too many people in the back will lose you this game. Ozzy can rationalize lying to Jason because he wasn't in an alliance with him. He WAS in an alliance with Parvati. He and James would have to show a lot more forgiveness than they have so far for Parvati to win.
Again, people can say people will change their minds and vote for Parvati because she's played the best game, but does Alex think Dreamz played the "better" game when he stabbed him in the back? Does Big Tom think Rob M played the "better" game? I guess we can say she's playing the better game from the sidelines, not me, but it might be a little different when you are the one that had the alliance with her. You are the one that protected her in the beginning when she was targeted, and then she turns and gets rid of you the first chance she gets. If I were Ozzy, James or Amanda, I wouldn't vote for her. That's isn't called being bitter. That is called reaping what you've sowed.

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"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by nazpink on 04-18-08 at 03:49 PM
Right now Cerie and Parvati seem to be "popular" within their tribe or alliance but I can see that coming to a screaching halt by the time this season is over. I give them credit for having some strategy and executing it, but the one thing they both seem to forget is keeping some allies. It's like that one from Guatemala (she was the repeat one) in the beginning she had lots of friends, by the end no one wanted to vote for her...Cerie and Parvati seem to fall smoothly into that catagory.

Although I didn't really want to see Ozzy go, I also didn't want to see Jason go either, strangely enough. I guess I just didn't want to see the entire game planned out til the end..how predictable and boring. I also hated the fact that because some decided to cross their fingers when they lied it made them feel as though it didn't matter. Hey, look, I don't care if they lied, it's a game and they choose to take the chance of getting lied to when they sign up, but last I checked it wasn't a bunch of five year olds on the playground. You lied, it was your strategy, accept it because if I hear one person say at the Final Tribal Council that they had their fingers crossed I'm going to burst. It's just lame, but then again it doesn't surprise me that Cerie would come up with that one!

Anyway, the fans actually have a good chance if they are smart about it. Right now the favorites are a little too cocky and seem to want to take each other out first. As long as the fans act like they are little sheep they could easily take out every single on of the favs and make it a fan finale.

Amanda hasn't seemed too comfortable with anyone's decisions and it seems to me like she should start playing her own strategies rather than meekly go along with the group.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by toddE on 04-18-08 at 07:34 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-20-08 AT 10:53 PM (EST)

I think Parvati is likely to win. I think all of her old alliance will vote for her, plus Eliza and Ami.

ETA: Of course, my big duh, Ami not on jury, but Eliza and her three showmancers are, and that's four right there. Even Cirie might go for her. If Parvati makes the f3, I still pick her to win.

Since I have begun watching Big Brother, to my shame, I have seen a lot of people swear they would NEVER vote for the person who betrayed them, then go on to do just that.

I see her old showmance alliance as wanting one of their own to win over a fan.


"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by ohmyheck on 04-18-08 at 11:48 PM
Ami isn't on the jury.
"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by garcor on 04-18-08 at 11:56 PM
I'm curious whether the woman's alliance will hold together or if they will go back to fans vs. faves?
"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by michel on 04-19-08 at 05:32 PM
I've tried to answer that very question in my post for the editing thread. It's in the spoiler section of this board but, the editing thread is only speculation. If you want to read what I had to say, you can find it here:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/6872.shtml#109

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by garcor on 04-20-08 at 09:09 AM
Thanks Michel.
"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by michel on 04-21-08 at 10:18 PM
You're welcome.
"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by dabo on 04-21-08 at 10:33 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-08 AT 10:55 AM (EST)

The four Fans are in the Samburu Position, not in control but they've reached parity with the four Faves. If they can pull their act together (unlike Samburu) and knock out one more Fave they can control the game and Pagong the Faves, barring a Fave immunity win at F5 they can make it an all Fan F4 and F3. That's the only way to ensure a Fan win.
edited to correct tribe name

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Wacko Jacko on 04-21-08 at 12:26 PM
>LAST EDITED ON 04-21-08
>AT 10:55 AM (EST)
>
>The four Fans are in the
>Samburu Position, not in control
>but they've reached parity with
>the four Faves. If
>they can pull their act
>together (unlike Samburu) and knock
>out one more Fave they
>can control the game and
>Pagong the Faves, barring a
>Fave immunity win at F5
>they can make it an
>all Fan F4 and F3.
> That's the only way
>to ensure a Fan win.
>
>edited to correct tribe name


That is all wishful thinking though as allinaces are now formed that are no longer fans vs favorites. Fans vs Favorites is now out the door. Sure one will win but no one is playing the game that way anymore.

I will not read spoilers. I just think the editing points to Paverti or Cirie. Survivor is famous for painting someone as possible boots early in the game and then those same people end up winning. There have also been so many confessionals by both.

Let's just say the final three are Paverti, Cirie and Natalie. You mean to tell me Paverti can not win? Paverti and Cire are the same as far as liked and disliked. Batlaie is just hanging on Paverti's coattail. Paverti can easily win this game. No doubts in my mind.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by dabo on 04-21-08 at 02:18 PM
And I'm not going to bring any spoilers into this or any other fanatics thread. I'm not saying that's the only way a fan can win this, it's just my assessment of the only way the fans can ensure that a fan wins this.

I agree that Parvati and Cirie are both well positioned to win right now. But they still have to get to F3 or F2 in order for the jury to vote for them.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Aruba on 04-21-08 at 08:50 PM
I only see two ways a Fan can win:

A) Jason wins every IC from here on in and wins the Jury's vote. Highly unlikely...and even if he does the Jury will be mostly stock with Anti-Darwin advocates and will probably vote against him out of spite.

B) The F3 will consists of two Favs and one Fan. All three Fans on the Jury vote for the Fan and the four Favs on the Jury split the other votes 2-2.

In either scenario I don't see the Ozzy boot as a factor. I'm not sure why you have Parvati as the culpit of his boot but this was a team effort. Everyone was talking about it. When you have a bevy of weak inept "survivors" it's blatantly obvious to target a solid performer such as Ozzy.

As much as some think the game is no longer Fans vs. Favs when it comes to the Jury vote I believe the Favs on the Jury will vote for a Fav in the Finals. Just my speculation.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by michel on 04-21-08 at 10:12 PM

>"Jason wins every IC... the
>Jury will be mostly stock
>with Anti-Darwin advocates and will
>probably vote against him out
>of spite."

Spite? James said: "You can't irritate people and hope to appease them with a donut..."
Eliza said: "Jason and I both annoy people..."
Jason said: "I don't have an alliance except Eliza."


So, I repeat: Would it be spite or simply because Jason played a terrible, horrible, stupid social game?


>"a solid performer such as Ozzy."

A solid performer would have sensed the mood of the tribe and, at the very least, been wise enough to put the idol in his bag rather than left it in hiding!!!!!! Ozzy got what he deserved for being so blind. Know your opponents is an important rule in the "Art of War" and in the game of Survivor.


"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by iltarion on 04-22-08 at 03:42 AM
Everyone is making too big of a deal out of Ozzy not bringing the HII. Afterall, if he wasn't planning on playing it, then there is no reason to bring it. Was he going to see something at TC that would make him think he needed it? Highly unlikely. Possible, I suppose, but highly unlikely.
If Jason swept the challenges, which he isn't going to, then he would deserve to win. I mean, come on, it isn't like he has been a complete jerk or something.
Alexis likely wins if she makes any F3 that doesn't include both her and Natalie. If it is Parvati, Cirie, and Alexis. I don't think there is much doubt Alexis would win. She would almost surely get Natalie, Erik, and Jason's votes, and I suspect it likely she would get Ozzy and Eliza's as well. Even if she didn't get all 5 of those votes, Parvati and Cirie would likely split some votes, meaning even just 3 votes could give someone else, like Alexis or Natalie or even Erik, the win.
So, if you think about it that way, Parvati ALSO doesn't want to be in an F3 with Cirie. Even if Cirie doesn't beat her outright, which she likely would at this point, Cirie at least could take a couple Fave votes away, giving a fan the win.
Parvati's probably ideal F3 would then be with Alexis and Natalie. But even then, she will need James or Amanda to forgive her enough to still vote for her. I believe Amanda might, but I doubt James or Ozzy will.
I am willing to change my mind a little and say that though it wasn't certain that Ozzy would win if he made F5, as Parvati said he would, it still would be a fairly big risk considering he would only need to win the F4 challenge against 3 women to make the Finals. In light of that, he did need to go at either F6 or F7, and since Parvati had immunity now, this WAS the best time for her to go after him.
I still think she lost his vote, but if she can recover Amanda and James, and maybe get a fair-minded vote from Eliza, then she can still win.
One problem with your editing analysis, michel, is that it makes no mention of the fact that Parvati virtually disappeared from the editing after the tribal switch. We had about 4 episodes in a row there that concentrated almost exclusively on Malakal. Who was at Malakal? Amanda, Cirie and Erik. I would say Amanda has actually gotten at least the most attention from the edit. Cirie probably has the best edit.
One thing I do know for sure, someone named "Paverti" is definitely not winning this.

>

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by michel on 04-22-08 at 08:45 AM
"One problem with your editing analysis, michel, is that it makes no mention of the fact that Parvati virtually disappeared from the editing after the tribal switch. We had about 4 episodes in a row there that concentrated almost exclusively on Malakal. Who was at Malakal? Amanda, Cirie and Erik. I would say Amanda has actually gotten at least the most attention from the edit. Cirie probably has the best edit."

I'm very happy to see that you read it. (I can be long winded at times!) If you scroll up to the corresponding episodes, I did address those concerns then. In every episode, despite never going to Tribal, Parvati had a small feature. From being shown as 1 of the favorites that was great at building the shelter, to looking very comfortable while the fans and Eliza were miserable, to getting the most of Edwin and Joe's visit and to making the alliance with Natalie.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by iltarion on 04-22-08 at 04:50 PM
I'm infamous for being long-winded. So it isn't going to bother me.
James also had small parts in all those episodes. More so than Parvati until her alliance was made with Natalie. Though I agree that James has very little chance of making the finals.

>

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Aruba on 04-24-08 at 06:21 PM
I haven't thought much of an Alexis, Natalie, Parvati F3. Hard to imagine two fans in the F3, but if that scenario occurs I believe Parvati will definitely win. I think James will vote for Parvati because...well he's just James. Cirie is just as much accountable for Ozzy's boot as Parvati so I don't see all the blame going on just Perv.

This only good that will come from Parvati winning is I will gleefully always refer to this pathetic season as "Skank-ivor: Micronesia" if she wins.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Aruba on 04-24-08 at 06:13 PM
If the final TC was held last week I totally agree with you that Jason would not deserve to win for being a stupid dumba$$.

But I was saying what if he went on to win every IC from here on in. As unlikely as it may be then YES he would deserve to win. But would he?...probably not for the reason I initially stated.

I will agree with Iltarion that a bit too much is being made about not playing the HII. In his season he finished runner-up, so his only goal this time around is to settle for nothing less than a win. The only realistic way he can do that is to save the HII. If he played the HII he probably finishes 6th, 7th, or 8th place instead of 9th...Big Whoop!

I'm sure Ozzy was well aware of his opponents...they were a bunch of bozos casted by CBS.

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-22-08 at 05:54 PM
I don't think a Fan will/can win this, unless the four Fans band together now as Dabo suggests to hopefully start removing the Faves. But I'd be very surprised if they did that, because they don't seem to be intelligent players, and they don't seem to have any interest in progressing together. Erik threw in with the Ozzy alliance and is now in a sort of no-man's land that almost matches Jason's position. Alexis and Natalie are more interested in the female alliance.

I can't see any Fave voting for a Fan over a Fave in the Final 2/3, but I can easily picture Fans voting for a Fave instead of one of their own.



Bleauin' ze bleus eaué, coeurtesie oeuf agmanne

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by iltarion on 04-25-08 at 04:15 PM
After that episode, my prediction that a fan will probably win this, or at least that Cirie is the only fave left who can win looks better than ever. Parvati knew she might be making a mistake during TC last week; you could see it on her face. And now that James both shunned her attempts to make-up and outed her to Ozzy at TC, things have gone about as badly for her as they could have. I admit that if she can still keep Amanda's or Cirie's vote, then she can still win. However, how is she going to do that without bringing both with her to the Finals? And if she does that, does she then lose Natalie or Alexis' vote? Probably. Yeah, I don't see how she can win this. I have been wrong before though.
Also, Amanda might actually have a shot at winning this now too. If she can just make the Finals, she has a good shot to win. And as I just said, it might be hard for Parvati and Cirie to let her go, knowing full well that doing so might pretty much guarantee a fan winning this.

>

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-25-08 at 06:14 PM
I still think Parvati could be the winner. One editing trick they've used in the past is to make the winner's game look like it might be unravelling as it gets closer to the end (I'm thinking of Yul). And lots of times they make it appear that Juror A would never in a million years vote for Finalist X, and then they turn around and do vote that way. I'm not sure Parvati couldn't get the vote of James or even Ozzy if she in the F3.



Bleauin' ze bleus eaué, coeurtesie oeuf agmanne

"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Aruba on 04-25-08 at 06:22 PM
If Parvati gets to the F3 with two Fans (I'm thinking Alexis and Gnatalie) not only could she win...I think she will win. The Jury would be stacked with Favs. I don't think she could ever get Ozzy's vote, but James would vote for her in that scenario over Alexis or Gnat.
"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by garcor on 04-25-08 at 11:58 PM
Parvati might not get Eliza's vote either.
"RE: Did a fan just win this?"
Posted by Aruba on 04-26-08 at 06:38 AM
>Parvati might not get Eliza's vote
>either.

If Parvari is sitting next to Alexis and Gnatalie in the F3 I think she will get Eliza's vote. If Eliza voted for Chris in Vanuatu, why not Parvati in Micronesia? And Chris was more diabolical and cut-throat than any of these jokers are trying to be this season.