Thanks to all for answering my questions. I've enjoyed reading everything on here. Some very interesting discussions and am looking forward to more.

Rules say you cant steal it Kris.

Well, that just sucks. Too bad they don't change that rule; it could make the game much more intersting. But that's just my opinion.

Maybe it will help if you look at it this way: There's already too many minutes wasted on talking about strategy that relates only to the Hidden Immunity Idol, would you want to hear more? I wouldn't want to see every hour of Survivor reduced to a series of thefts. Guessing "Under which coconut is the idol this week?" is not Survivor.

I don't think they will change that rule because it's the same as the regular immunity necklace: By finding it, the player "won" the HII. Outstealing isn't the goal of the game.

I'd like to see a season without Individual Immunities, hidden or otherwise.

"I'm out of action for awhile and suddenly people get delusions of grandeur."

Hahaha.. Michel, come on now. Caryn never had any power. She was outside an alliance of 5 the whole time, which is exactly where Gregg and Jen saw her. Her head was on the chopping block, which is why she was going to jump at any offer Tom and Ian had for her. The fact that neither Tom nor Ian's head was on the chopping block right then only shows how ballsy and Promethean their move was, the most courageous move ever done on Survivor, I have said before. If Caryn goes to Gregg or Jen or Katie and tells them of Tom and Ian's plan, then Katie goes back to Ian and tells him of Caryn's deception, and then Caryn ends up going home. So, no, she was going to take Tom and Ian's offer, live another week, and hope to make F4 or get the women to form an alliance at F5, which they would have if it weren't for Katie's loyalty to Ian.
Still, by saying strong players can win on their own terms, I don't mean that they never get any help. Tom was helped by Ian the entire way. If Ian didn't have that tight alliance with Katie, they were cooked. Yul was also given huge help by Becky and by decisions made by Jonathan. Brian came the closest to winning completely without help, which is why I have always considered him the best player.
Anyway, my point is that these players, and others, Jenna won completely on "her own terms," for instance, didn't rely on slipping through because other people, who were making the decisions, decided to boot threats instead of themselves. They didn't have that luxury. They had to protect themselves and stay in power or get booted. They had to play a proactive game.
Cirie made a great move by orchestrating Courtney's boot. I will always agree with that. However, Courtney foiled Cirie's UTR game because she was such a goat. This meant that no matter how weak Cirie was, she would still likely be booted in favor of Courtney. Being a non-threat was no weapon against being a goat. Therefore, Cirie had to boot Courtney so she could continue to ride her non-threat posture into the F3, which specifically meant relying on Aras and Danielle to boot "anyone but her." She would have gotten her wish if it wasn't for Terry's idol and challenge dominance.
So, yes, Cirie has been proactive at times. I'm not saying she hasn't. But her prime game isn't social, as shown by her bitching at Jonathan, and it isn't strategical. It is being a non-threat and hoping those in power continue to boot the threats.
The problem is- once someone sees her as a threat, her game is up. And if she keeps trying to control boots, that day will come sooner rather than later. I think the showmance alliance already knows this, or they are idiots.

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Hey Iltarion...we missed ya.

Sadly the final sentence in your post may be more prophetic than you think...they ARE idiots. That's why I would not be surprised to see Cirie skate to the F4 as she did on Exile Island. And the way this season is shaping up the final IC will probably be a "giggling" contest that Cirie could win hands-down and put herself in the Finals.

In a bizarre kind of way, if this season continues to spiral downward, I'm kinda hoping she "wins" so her "victory" would the the "crowning jewel" to a subpar season.

Stay tuned!!!

LAST EDITED ON 03-13-08 AT 10:25 AM (EST)

Cirie was outside 2 alliances of 4. Did you notice how her actions gave her power? Caryn was in a similar position when Katie thought of going with Gregg and Jenn to boot Caryn and Tom in order. Caryn could have alerted them to the plan. What did she have to lose? Did listening to Tom's proposal work for Caryn?

Anyway, enough about Palau. No one won on their own and Brian received a lot of help from the collapse of the morons on Sook Jai. Chuay Ghan was turning into Chuay Gone until those morons threw a challenge to boot Jed. That's not help? Then, no one was able to figure out that stupid "21 Flag" challenge until they were down to 6 flags when the first team who picks should always win. To make matters worse, SJ booted Robbbb just when he realized he had to be a team player. Even more, with their lives on the line, Penny and Ken were both unable to stay under water more than 15 SECONDS. All that is tremendous help. Finally, Ted not seeing what Jake was telling him about Clay and Brian was also of great help.

Jenna couldn't even quit on her own terms so I don't buy that she won on her own terms!!

Back to the Future

If Cirie wins, it will be as much on her terms as anybody else. She has a plan and even if it includes using other players' strength, it's still a valid strategy.

I didn't say Brian had absolutely NO help. I said he came the closest to needing no help. Everyone gets helped, or hurt, by circumstance.
Jenna was less of a threat than Heidi; so, for that one TC, she skated by thanks to being weak. However, she still won thanks to winning ICs, and you don't need anyone else's help when you do that.
I never said Cirie's strategy, or any other UTR player's, isn't valid. EVERY strategy is valid, even Jean-Robert's from last season. I have merely been explaining why I don't respect it as much. I understand there is a lot of respect for Cirie, or any other non-survivor-type player who can play this game and play it well, out there. I understand she, like Sandra before her, gives hope to couch potatoes everywhere that they could go out and win Survivor. Hey, let the dream live on!
I've just made this point many times before. People think winning Survivor without winning ICs is some great feat. Well,

15 seasons - 5 winners who won 2 ICs or more, 10 winners who won 1 or 0 ICs

The numbers don't lie. It is harder to win this game when you are strong at challenges. It is twice as easy to win, by the numbers, if you are weak at challenges.

>

15 seasons - 5 winners who won 2 ICs or more, 10 winners who won 1 or 0 ICs

The numbers don't lie. It is harder to win this game when you are strong at challenges. It is twice as easy to win, by the numbers, if you are weak at challenges.

Survivor is more than just a physical game obviously. That said I think the numbers are skewed (as you have shown above) largely due to the fact that players fear the physical players more. That's why they are targeted earlier and earlier (os so it seems). With this in mind, you would think more of the physical players would wise up (certainly they watch Survivor) and would look to forge alliances with physical players early, instead of tacking on several weaker players at the end of their alliances. The weaker players are almost always going to bond together to take out the physical threats post-merge. With two idols in China, James was too foolish to see this and it cost him dearly. Who's fault was that?

This season more of the same is happening. First we have the battle of the alpha males on who would be the Big Chief of the Fans. Three weaker outsiders should have had no chance to remain in the game yet here they are. And Mikey and Joel are at loser lounge. Yes Tracy deserves some credit here, but these two meatheads allowed this to happen. No way Chet should still be here. And on the other side, the physically stronger alliance allowed Cirie to manipulate a vote, picking who she wanted to remove. Now Yau Man hardly qualifies as a physical threat, but he certainly wasn't the weakest player remaining. If I'm Ozzy or James right now I'm very concerned. You don't think Parvati and Amanda are smart enough to realize they have a better shot against the likes of Eliza, Cirie, Chet, Kathleen, Alexis, etc than Ozzy or James? James especially should see this! The next target should not be Eric or Jason, it should be Cirie (the biggest potential disruptor of their alliance) or Eliza. The weaker physical players obviously know who to target, so why don't the stronger players recognize this and target those weaker players most likely to make waves instead of letting them hang around until the numbers favor them? It goes both ways!

LAST EDITED ON 03-13-08 AT 05:48 PM (EST)

>"Jenna was less of a threat than Heidi; so, for that one TC, she skated by thanks to being weak."

That's the F5 TC but Jenna is damn lucky that the editors put her discussion with Heidi prior to the F6 TC only on Insider. Jenna wanted to go home. That's why she gave her immunity necklace to Heidi. If Matt hadn't given family visits to everyone and if Christy hadn't been so hesitant, Rob wouldn't have been scared into keeping Jenna. That's why I wrote she couldn't even quit on her own terms. Now, we're at 2 crucial TCs!

>"Jenna...still won thanks to winning ICs, and you don't need anyone else's help when you do that."

But Jenna NEEDED to win those ICs so she was damn lucky that they were something she could handle. The F4 blindfold IC had Butch and Matt more interested in groping her than winning. The F3 had Matt quitting. Don't you count that as help? I do.

I rate higher those players who win with minimum help from immunity and use their intelligence and social play to get by. Hatch, Tina, Aras, Earl and Todd did it with the numbers while Chris and Danni did it without the numbers. That's surviving.

>"5 winners who won 2 ICs or more, 10 winners who won 1 or 0 ICs"

When you need to win one immunity, you are going to need to win many so, of course, those who rely on immunities are not that successful. Not counting on immunity is much better.

BTW: your count is right but I would put the real count at 6 - 9. Yul had immunity in all 6 TCs after merge!!

PS: Finally, I had the chance to re-watch Amazon. I enjoyed it and Jenna's gameplay a lot more than the first time but she certainly didn't win "on her terms".

ETA: I was writing at the same time you were so i have to add: Very well said, Echogirl. And much more on topic for this season.
Meatheads! LOL! So true.

LAST EDITED ON 03-13-08 AT 06:53 PM (EST)

Very well said, Echogirl. And much more on topic for this season.
Meatheads! LOL! So true.

Long time, no post! I'm actually enjoying this trainwreck of a season so far, but once again I'm amazed at how very little these contestants have learned from past seasons.

I know Ilitarion doesn't respect the lesser physical players games like he does others, but there is a method to the madness! First I think it's difficult to lump all UTR players under one huge umbrella, just as you can't necessarily do the same with the more physical players.

Can you honestly say Cirie is the same type of UTR player as say Lydia? Or Chet? Or Butch? Or Jan? There are UTR players like Lydia who are totally non-strategic tag-alongs happy to end up with whatever place their majority alliance gives them. Others like Cirie and Sandra are non-physical threats and they know it. Yet they are constantly trying to manipulate alliances to improve their positions. They should be seen as more dangerous threats to physical players yet are rarely viewed as such until the damage has been done. Since they don't win IC's they can be booted anytime, which is why it always amazes me that so many of these types reach the F4. For example, Tijuana or Christa may have been more of a challenge threat than Sandra was but had either shown Sandra's tenacity for shaking things up? Cirie is most similar to Sandra in this way which makes her very dangerous. I'm less afraid of Eric or Jason winning a challenge than Cirie rallying the weaker players against me.

As for the physical players? You need a strategy as well. You really have to use sound judgment on those you allign with to insure you don't become an early post-merge target. And of course you have to have numbers post-merge. Brian knew this, yet once he eliminated the opposing tribe he made sure his biggest physical and mental threats (Ted & Helen) were eliminated. Tom knew it too, and I despised Tom. Yul's circumstances were a bit different, but he's been one of the best OA players we've seen.

I'm not sure Ozzy or James are as smart as Brian, Tom or Yul. IMO they have allowed others to take control of the game. Will they recognize this in time to remain factors deep into the game? Perhaps, but they can't wait until the merge. Jonathon is a potential ally if he isn't forced out of the game due to injury. Ami would be a good ally as well (probably the best athlete among the females) but I seriously doubt they court her. They probably still see Jason and Eric as bigger threats than Cirie, Eliza or Tracy, but it would be a mistake to target any guy at this point IMO, although I fully expect that too happen. Taking Eric and Jason into the merge gives the weaker players a target not named Ozzy or James. As much as I want to see Chet gone, it's a bit too late on him. He has no game at all and winning challenges is less important post-switch. He is a Lydia/Jan type of player not a Cirie/Sandra type anyway which means he won't be stirring up trouble. It's all about positioning yourself post-merge, something Cirie is fully aware of and something Ozzy and James better become aware of soon, before it's too late.

Great posts, echogirl. I have wondered that myself- when are the strong going to join together to prevent being ganged up by the weak? The only problem with that is it is like the all-women alliance, which also never seems to last. It is nearly inevitable that at least one strong player will ultimately side with the weak. It is just too tempting to think that hey, I can beat these guys, so why not side with them?
You are also right that I would never put Cirie with Lydia or Chet. Cirie is a player of the game, a good player. But she is one-dimensional. Her trouble spots are the beginning of the game and the end. Fortunately for her, like Sandra, she has been on strong tribes both times, which lessened the danger for her at the beginning of the game, (Sandra happened to be graced with one of the strongest tribes of all time, so strong that they eventually threw a challenge just to lose for once!) However, the end game will always be a problem for her, just as it was for her in Exile Island. She is not likely to win the final IC, and she is too likable to be someone that you would want to take with you into the finals.
And now she is painting herself as someone not to be trusted.
Ozzy and James are obviously not as smart as Brian, Tom or Yul. That is maybe the understatement of Survivor legends.
Michel, Jenna still won those ICs, whether she had help or not. I know she said she wanted to quit (because you've told me before), but she didn't quit. We have seen it proven ad nauseum now that if someone really wants to quit, they can. As pathetic as some of her comments were before that, as well as her game, she still pulled out the most improbable win ever.
But enough about the past!

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Another reason why the solid physical players have not banned together is because there's simply not enough of them in an given season. It's the same reason why the over 45s don't ban together, the homosexuals don't ban together, the supermodels with plastic boobies don't ban together...

Sure they cast a few token athletes but most of the castaways are weak, dumb, lazy, inept in survivor skills, or a combination thereof. But I don't want to get going again on my personal feelings about the production casting crew in CBS.

It always has been and always will be a case of the numbers game. And if casting continues as it's been, I don't see how a minority group will ban together to dismantle a majority.