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"Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"

Posted by Aruba on 05-12-16 at 06:48 PM
I’ll be out of town tomorrow and won’t be back until Sunday, so I figured I’d get the season’s final list out now. I’m whipping through this as fast as I can type, so please don’t be too harsh on typos, grammar, etc. Mucho thanks to Michel and Kingfish for your contributions! Once again, I commend Michel who suggested the “Good, Bad, Boring” format for our weekly lists this season. But heading into the Finale I will use the conventional ranking to finish up with the F4.


1) AUBRY – I see no realistic scenario where Aubry gets voted out next TC (even if Tai wins the final IC.) If Tai does not win the IC, Aubry takes the title going away sitting next to the others. Joe’s removal was not a bad break for just HER, it was a bad break for EVERYONE because he was everybody’s goat. While in the game, and not seeing what we see, I can understand her still lamenting over Neal’s removal. But when she sees the season play out even Aubry will have to secretly admit that was a fortunate break for her.

The THREE male medivacs and Tai’s game-changing decision to essentially end Scot & Jason’s game all but ensured a female winner this season. Yes there were a host of situations where Aubry had no control that fell in her favor, but there were other situations she did have control that she played wonderfully in vintage Survivor fashion. Winning the final IC would be the gravy on the mashed potatoes, but in any event she will be a deserving winner. Final note...she may be the first Survivor who actually looks better on Day 39 than she did on Day One.


2) TAI – Aubry will mostly likely win the game, but it’ll be Tai who will take the ownership and be the standout castaway for this season. The various reasons for that surety were noted in all my weekly lists. So understandably no one will want to sit next to Tai in the Finals. Although Aubry named Tai in her F3 this past episode, in the end I believe even she will come around to that realization. Simply put he MUST win the next IC.

My prediction is after Jeff hands the million dollar check to Aubry, Production will hand Mark over to Tai to keep and take home. Hearing Tai confess to Michele he is uncomfortable around attractive women, it’s a minor miracle his head didn’t explode being on the same tribe with Anna and Julia for two weeks.


3) CYDNEY – Great discipline on her part to not gluttonize during the reward and quite a prophetic call pertaining to Joe. She proactively initiated one creditable game-changing moment when she orchestrated the Nick blindside, but other than that she (and her bathing suit) provided an attractive backdrop for this season.

She boasts of being in two alliances like a badge of honor, yet historically that’s been more like a kiss of death. The sneak preview of next week’s IC appears to be a challenge in her strike zone so she could win her way into the Finals. But the best case scenario is Cydney will likely face the prospect of sitting next to Aubry and/or Tai due to prior decisions she failed to make that would have put her in the best position to win.


4) MICHELE – The REAL shocker this episode was Michele not feasting on any food! She did not allow Tai to walk all over her figuratively at the last TC, but she was fine with him walking all over her literally during her massage. Lucky for her, Mark did not come by and pluck her eyes out while she was lying in that vulnerable position. Mark is not only an angry bird, she could be a jealous bird as well.

Whereas Joe’s removal benefitted everyone with a vagina, Michele probably benefitted the most from his medivac. Her likely inclusion in the Finals would not be as pathetic as Cassandra (S14) or Mick (S19) but her chances of winning will be just as remote.


BOOTED) JOE – It’s not often I compliment Production, but they get MAJOR props for taking a complete and utter waste of a casting debacle and actually making me feel sorry about his removal. It was the same ailment that forced Bruce (S12) out of the game. Given the nature and the elements of this game, I’m surprised we don’t witness more of those cases.

For the second challenge in a row, slow and steady won the race. I’m sure the Spin Doctors will have plenty to say about the format but at the end of the day EVERY castaway had 15 chances to hit five targets and only Joe was successful. His commendable and clutch effort nailing the LAST TWO targets with his FINAL TWO beanbags was only marred by slipping his skirt back on and allowing a female to wear his pants and make his final decision. How sad; how pathetic.


Table of contents

Messages in this discussion
"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by kingfish on 05-13-16 at 10:34 AM
That would be my order of merit this season.

However, there is a (IMO) very realistic chance that Aubry would not survive either of the next two TC's. I think her chances of surviving the vote in the first one are not bad, Aubry and Tai are back together again, and I think that's bad news for Michele unless Cyd remains intransigent about not being told what to do. But even then, the worst that could happen as far as Aubry is concerned is a tie which she could survive.

But that last TC is fraught with danger for her (and/or Tai) if both are still in the game. IMO, if Aubry doesn't win the final IC, she could very well go home. Tai would certainly send her out if his dark side emerges, and there's a 50/50 chance the third person would also.

Pretty much the same could be said about Tai, except if weird things happen and Aubry and Tai are F2, I agree with you, Aubry will bring home the bacon. Which should be OK with Tai seeing as how he's a vegetarian. Aubry has a great case to make at the final TC, but Tai's case would be impressive as well.

I also agree with you that starvation, bacterial infections, and torture seem to had a beneficial effect on Aubry's looks. It apparently did her some good to have to push back from her desk job for a jungle vacation. I think she's quite attractive in a brainy/nerdy way. It'll be interesting to see how she looks at the reunion.

I see Tai winning second place money as well as America's favorite money if he can out vote Mark. Hopefully your prediction for Mark is accurate.

.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by Aruba on 05-15-16 at 05:53 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-15-16 AT 06:51 AM (EST)

I don’t dabble through the various spoiler sites so I guess you know more than me, but the consensus on this Board seems to be the speculation of a F2. My ranking and prediction does not account for that speculation. In Skankivor: Micronesia they dropped the F2 twist on the end game players in the 11th hour so certainly that could be a similar scenario for this season. If so, then Tai gets the classic “Survivor Shaft” because as challenging as it will be to have to win the next IC, to have to win the next TWO ICs would be too much to ask.

Either way I really do not see Aubry at risk regardless which route Production takes for FTC. As you stated conventional wisdom could dictate she’d be in danger at F3 (if we have a F2,) but I’ll stick to my guns that not many players possess that attribute of conventional wisdom and she most likely gets a seat in the Finals whether she wins it outright in the final IC or gets taken. That’s why I feel winning the final IC would be “gravy on the mashed potatoes” for her.

Yes, not even EPMB could have thought “starvation, bacterial infections, and torture” would be the winning ingredients for an Extreme Makeover side story. I always saw some attractiveness to Aubry especially when she loses those googly eye black rimmed glasses, but I wouldn’t hold my breath as to how she may look at the Reunion Show. My guess is she keeps her glasses and probably gains all her weight back...and then some.

I wholeheartedly agree Tai would win America’s Choice (if they have one) because he owned this season, but he’ll need to win whatever ICs remain to have any chance for even the runners-up purse. Although a Tai/Aubry F2 would be the appropriate ending to this season...I don't see Tai winning the ICs necessary to make that happen; and NO ONE wants to sit next to him at FTC.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by suzzee on 05-13-16 at 01:33 PM
Bravo to the players in ratings threads this season, it's been interesting and fun to read the thoughts.

Corrupting teenage boys since,
well, none of your business how long...



"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by Aruba on 05-15-16 at 05:55 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-15-16 AT 05:56 AM (EST)

AWWWWW...Thanks so much, suzzee!

It's nice to know Board dwellers (other than Kingfish and Michel) appreciate the efforts.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by michel2 on 05-15-16 at 03:47 PM
Since you asked, here's my take on that pathetic display: The challenge was supposed to be a race but why even include the run through the jungle if the players had to wait for everyone to toss their bags before they could retrieved the ones that missed the targets? It looked as dumb as those scenes at the end of the Amazing Race where all but one team has checked in and we still see the last pair go through the roadblock or detour even if it means nothing. We just saw the most exciting 2 minutes in sports last week in Kentucky while Cambodia showed us the most boring 5:30 minutes! Jeff gave Joe a lot of credit for what exactly? Being the slowest?

1- Aubry: Her constant questioning is very interesting because it shows the multiple layers of the game. Everyone can be useful but everyone can, in turn, be the person that brings you down. Joe was the rock solid foundation of Aubry’s game, the one person she could trust but now that he is gone we heard her already thinking of the next plan. In a way, her hesitations about her final 3 partners remind me of Kim’s own questions regarding Sabrina and Chelsea. Kim strongly considered voting out Sabrina because she was so nice and she considered going to the end with Alicia and Christina. Aubry’s own doubts could just as well be exaggerated because I think she wins if she makes the FTC.

A Final 2 is always tricky though and it’s rare that you can do like Hatch and let the others make the final decision with the assurance that you can still win. Aubry could be in that position but it will depend on her presentation to the jury. I think she will want to win that challenge in order to make the decision once more. That could easily backfire because it certainly will cost her one vote. It’s hard to defeat someone with a good social game but this episode showed us that Aubry’s social game may be even better than Michele's. Aubry only needed a few well chosen words to draw Tai back into her pocket. Neal, Joe, Nick, Jason, Scot, Tai and even Debbie at one point, had great things to say about Aubry so, with a good final presentation, she should get those votes.

2- Michele: Making it to the final episode with practically no blood on her hands is quite an accomplishment. Her social game has been excellent as we saw when she found a way to work with Tai. She let him walk all over her this time because she's come to realize that he isn't a threat. However, that will change when they hear it will be a Final 2. Tai would be the perfect goat to take in a final 3 because no one but Debbie would vote for him but it's risky to let him compete in the final 3 immunity. He could win it and take her seat away. Michele would need to have a rock solid understanding with Tai for a Final 2 deal but she'll have a lot of work to do to accomplish that. Who would trust Tai at this point? Well, if they manage to get rid of Aubry at F4 there is a chance Tai would side with Michele over Cydney.

If Michele wins an immunity or two, it will show the jury that she wasn't carried to the end even if she didn't make big moves. That and the fact that some jury members aren't too enamored with her rivals, she could become Sole Survivor.

3- Cydney: In many ways, Cydney would be the most deserving winner. She lost her ally in the vbery first episode buyt she adapted wonderfully. First, she usurped Jennifer's place in the Brawn alluiance (Scot admitted in interview that his biggest mistake was to let Jason convince him to boot Jennifer) Then she flipped the game around on the guys by first booting Nick and then helping Aubry boot Scot and Jason. She's played very well but siding with michele is a huge mistake. Against Aubry, she could match game move with game move but matching game move against friendship is much tougher. Michele has friends on the jury, Cydney and Aubry have victims...

Tai: The season started as a Cambodian version of "Everyone Loves Raymond" with Tai playing the leading role and it's ending with Tai looking as the guy who couldn't get more than one or two votes against anyone left. Funny that he himself said he wasted his advantage. Did you hear that part, Aruba?! He has shown time and again that he is has uncomfortable in front of Jeff as he is in front of an attractive woman so how could he plead his case with any conviction?

Removed from the game - Joe: How convenient. They let Joe have his day and then removed the one player that could ruin the finale. Was it in his contract?



"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by Aruba on 05-15-16 at 06:56 PM
My understanding about the RC is you only had to wait if you were unable to hit your five targets with the initial 15 attempts. I thought whoever hit their five targets first with their initial 15 tosses (or less) wins the challenge regardless of where the other competitors were at that time. So that’s why it would make sense to race through the jungle and try to be the first to hit the five targets with the 15 beanbags. When Aubry, Cydney and Tai all failed with their 15 attempts it did open the door for Joe. But if Joe does not hit his last two targets with his last two beanbags, everyone scrambles to retrieve their bags and Joe would have no chance of winning despite your claim of Production letting him win.

Making it to the final episode with practically no blood on your hands is a trademark of riding coattails. Jenn made it to the final episode in S10; Becky made it to the final episode in S13; Dan made it to the final episode in S21; and many more like them who rode coattails. I would regard neither of those finishes as "quite an accomplishment." If we do have a F2 and Michele wins BOTH of the final ICs, she could make a case, but it will not reverse the fact up to now she was carried to the end game. As for “finding a way to work with Tai” Michele did not have to search long and hard to “find a way.” Actually there wasn’t a whole lot to find at all. As a clear case of attrition when the three went off to their reward it was blatantly obvious the two left behind were on the bottom so the prospect of working together was putting on the ‘ole headlights while driving at night.

Cydney made an initial decision to align with the strongest physical players. We heard her say that loud and clear in the Premier. So when her racial bonding with Darnell didn’t pan out, gravitating toward Jason and Scot was not so much of a “wonderful adaptation” as much as what she wanted to do all along. And Jason/Scot were all too happy to bond with the bodybuilder over Jenn or the other tribemate skinny enough to slip through a keyhole.

Tai was the one responsible for ending Jason and Scot’s game...at least 10 times more responsible than Cydney/Aubry. Playing the vote advantage at the F6 TC was the best attempt Tai could make to allow that advantage to work. It was game circumstances beyond his control that essentially “wasted” the advantage. Had he not made that attempt at the F6 TC, with Joe’s subsequent removal from the game, it would have been REALLY wasted. Like I stated in my list this week, when Aubry watches the episode with Neal’s medivac she will realize it was NOT a bad break for her...such will be the case for Tai. When he watches the season play out, he will realize he personally did nothing to “waste” the vote advantage.

Funny for someone who’s social game is atrocious, who will be unable to plead his case at FTC, who is uncomfortable around most of the castaways this season...the other remaining players do NOT want to sit next to him in the Finals. If half of what you say is true then the girls in the game are complete idiots to not want to bring someone along who “couldn’t get more than one or two votes!” OH, that’s right...I forgot...it’s probably in their “contracts” to do that. Like DUHHHHH, what was I thinking???


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by michel2 on 05-15-16 at 09:15 PM
They could simply have GIVEN the 5 players 15 sandbags each and the result would have been the same but WE would not have wasted 5 minutes of our lives. But the editors had to s-t-r-e-t-c-h the episode because there wouldn't be a TC.

By the way, did you notice how the rules are so flexible that they can't really be called rules anymore. Caleb gets removed from the game but we still go to TC. Neal and Joe are removed from the game and we don't have a TC. They don't have rules, they have arrangements.

The big difference between Michele and the coat riders you mentioned is that no one here was in Michele's original alliance. Yes, Becky followed Yul, yes Amber first and Natalie years later, followed Morono to the end but they were aligned from the start. Michele had to move from her original alliance with Anna and Julia to one with Nick and Jason and now with Cydney and Aubry and she has done so without ruffling feathers. That isn't easy to do.

Cydney could have reacted poorly at Darnell's elimination and she would have ostracized herself. Instead, she kept her calm and let the other two girls hang themselves. Giving Jason a chance to get the idol also helped.

Of course, Scot and Jason would have remained in power if Tai hadn't flipped but contrary to you, I give the credit to the person who is able to manipulate someone into screwing his own game over the one that screws himself. Aubry found the words that pried Tai away from the big guys.

Did you fast forward the part where Aubry realized that she'd have better shot at going to the end with Tai than with Cydney? Players don't always realize how the jury will react but it's easy to tell that they don't respect Tai anymore.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by Aruba on 05-16-16 at 09:29 PM
I’d prefer they run to retrieve their beanbags giving the competitor who performed the best in the first stage of the challenge an advantage of hitting their targets first. Only NOW can we say the result would have been the same knowing the first three who retrieve their bags the fastest all failed in their initial attempts. Talk about your quintessential Monday Morning QB. Actually it was Aubry/Cydney/Tai who s-t-r-e-t-c-h-e-d the episode because they were unable to accomplish what Joe ultimately did.

When Caleb was medivaced it was still early enough in the season when they could afford to eliminate two castaways in the same episode. There was NO way at that time they knew they would have an unprecedented THREE medivacs this season. The three removals from the game had to have fouled up their format and scheduling some; or at least enough to not want to eliminate two players in the same episode MULTIPLE times this season. Take this past episode for example: If they went ahead with a TC after Joe’s removal we would have went into the two-hour season Finale with three castaways?! For the fans who don’t spoil it for themselves, we’d be saying WTF will they do for two hours when we ALREADY have our F3 FTC???

Yes, the coattail riders I mentioned did have original alliance mates to carry them past the merge...which brings us to a much BIGGER difference between Michele and the coattail riders I mentioned. Michele had the uncanny great fortune of not getting her torch lit at TC until the second half of the season! And PLEEEEASE don’t even think about crediting anything other than her good fortune of being on the right tribes at the right time.

OK, I’ll see you halfway on Cydney. Although I’ll still contend casting a female bodybuilder on a Brawn tribe with Jason and Scot darn near guaranteed her advancement to the merge, I guess she could have gone nutso over Darnell’s boot even though she only knew of his existence for a grand total of three days. And you do make a good point winning the guys favor by helping them find the idol.

The primary reason Tai was pried away from the big guys was because the big guys themselves made him feel like a second class citizen. He would have turned on them regardless of any “found words” from Aubry. Not quite sure why you want me to “fast forward” because I stated in my list that Aubry in fact named Tai as part of her F3 this past episode. I also stated I believe Aubry will come around in the Finale and realize sitting next to the castaway who owned this season could be risky. Should we have a F3 FTC she should come to that realization sooner than later. If we have a F2 FTC I could see her wanting to keep her meatshield in the game to guarantee her a F2 spot.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by michel2 on 05-16-16 at 10:11 PM
LAST EDITED ON 05-16-16 AT 10:12 PM (EST)

I think that you're a lot like me and you much prefer Survivor's golden age to the reheated formula that we've seen for the last 20 seasons or so. The main differences between the early seasons and today is that the scenes involving Jiffy have taken more and more space in the alotted 44 minutes. The challenges and Tribal Council now take up about half the show when they used to take about a quarter. Therefore, I'm not being a Monday morning QB when I'm saying the challenge could have been shortened greatly to make the episode less boring. I've been saying it for about a decade!

Yes, it was easier to add a TC when Caleb was removed but then they didn't have a TC when Swan was medevaced before the merger in Samoa. I think that was episode 5 where Caleb was taken out in episode 4. So I maintain that they make their decisions to suit their pusposes. A game needs rules, not arrangements.

I'll agree with you that Michele didn't do a thing to help her tribe win any of those pre-merge immunity challenges but that in itself could have been a disadvantage. Everyone else had been to TC and they had a good idea whom they could trust. Michele was an unknown quantity and could have been targeted just for that. The players of Tandang never went to TC before the merger and they were completely in over their head facing savvier players. In a similar fashion, only going to one TC hurt Galu who didn't know how to stand united against Foa Foa. Since the merger, Michele has adapted and jumped from one alliance to another so maybe we can agree that she isn't a coat tail rider but a public transport commuter: She needs to take the train, the bus and walk to make it to the end!

As for Tai, why don't we let the players and the jury decide. I'm pretty sure that they will keep Tai if it's a final 3 because he isn't a jury theat but will remove him if it's a Final 2 because he could take away someone's seat. No matter, I don't see him having a chance to win. Of course, you'll claim bitter jury if he loses but Tai has been responsible for losing all his sympathy capital.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by Aruba on 05-17-16 at 07:18 PM
I didn’t call you a Monday Morning QB because you commented on the length of the challenge...it was because you stated the result would have been the same if they didn’t have the run through the jungle rewarding the players retrieving their bags first giving them a quicker shot to hit the targets and win. The only way you could have known the result would be the same is to have watched the RC completely play out.

Like it or not, many viewers want to see the challenges more than to sit through 40 minutes of MTV Real World in a jungle or on an island. Even though I’m a fan of the challenges, personally what I could do without is Jeff not being able to keep his flipping mouth shut for even two seconds during the challenge! So point well taken that DAW Jiffy ruins the challenges by hogging up as much limelight as possible.

Swan (who was medivaced in Ep. 6) was the SECOND medivac of that season. When the first medivac Mike was removed from Samoa they DID move forward with a TC much like what was done this season after the first medivac Caleb. As I stated, it’s the subsequent medivacs that may tend to foul up scheduling and season format.

Not doing much to help your tribe win challenges is EXACTLY why it is an advantage for those coattail riders post-merge. By appropriately NOT being perceived as a threat is precisely what allows them to be carried along. One could make the argument Michele had even more of an advantage by having her choice of coattails to ride that dropped by her feet after the merge. As for lack of first half season TCs being a disadvantage, it sure didn’t hurt Koror aka Tom Westman in Palau.

If Tai loses to Michele and/or Cydney, you’re darn tootin’ it will be at the hands of a bitter jury. Against Aubry it would depend on what transpires and what the Jurors say at FTC. If Aubry is seated at the Finals and most of the inquisition is positive toward her, then I would be less inclined to cite bitterness.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by michel2 on 05-18-16 at 10:32 AM
I don't care at all who won the reward or who would have won if they had eliminated the race through the woods so my complaint isn't about the result which is what Monday Morning QBs do: If the coach hadn't called a pass on the one yard line, our team would have won the SB.

I'm saying the challenge design was dumb and the IRONY is that the result would have been the same if they had removed the race. It was a simple waste of time as if they already knew they needed to stretch the episode.

So one rule for the first medevac and a different rule for the next? That's unfair because one tribe could lose two players in the first instance when the other won't later. Rules should be rules.

Sandbagging challenges is actually a very smart way to play the game. So we could say that Michele outwitted everyone by making herself appear as a non-threat when, right now, she is just as likely as anyone left to win those next few challenges. After all, Outwit comes before Outplay! You win challenges only when you need to win them and then people like you think you're not a threat. That's incredibly smart in my book and that's exactly how I'd play.

As for Koror, they had such a weak opposition that they didn't have to worry about post merger TC. Those Ulong models/actors quit one after the other. Yes, only Jeff officially quit but Ashlee, Kim and Ibe all stopped trying before being voted out... That's practically half the tribe.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by Aruba on 05-18-16 at 07:47 PM
You may not care who wins challenges, but I (and probably many other fans) do care who wins challenges that have become an integral part of the game. Without them we wouldn’t be watching a 32nd season. And I really don’t see a game format as dumb if it’s designed to have a first part rewarding the competitor who finishes that part first to have the first chance to hit their targets and win. When that format was designed they didn’t know the first three who finished the first part of that challenge would ALL fail to hit the five targets with their 15 tosses.

You could have a season all planned out beforehand and implement all the “rules” you want, but having MULTIPLE medivacs in any given season will throw a monkey wrench in the equation.

Let’s not shovel the slop now and insinuate Michele was purposely “sandbagging.” LMAO. That’s such a lame cop out. So a professional sports team that totally sucks...sucks SO bad they finish with the worse record for the season. OHHH but they really didn’t suck...they “sandbagged” to get the first draft pick next year and drafted a franchise player who leads them to a championship a few years later. So let's backpedal and as a meager attempt at self-preservation say they “outwitted” the other teams before they “outplayed” them to an eventual championship. You may consider that incredibly smart but that’s BUSH LEAGUE and would NEVER be how I would play it.

Ulong was not weak as much as Koror was incredibly strong…thanks to Tom Westman. Yes, other solid performers were on Koror as well but they were clearly led by their MVP Westman. Led SO much to a point they diminished the will of their opposition. Solid teams with strong leaders will do that. It was reported Jeff had a tendon completely torn off his ankle bone that needed to be surgically repaired when he left the game. Today that would be a medivac (i.e. let’s remove Neal from the game because of a boo-boo on his knee *SNORT*)...back when they didn’t cuddle the castaways as much as they do now, the player might have to remove himself from the game.


"RE: Kaoh Rong: THE FINAL LIST"
Posted by kingfish on 05-17-16 at 08:54 AM
After the reunion show I'll be able to tell you who won.