Snake in the grass, Fish in the weeds.
Same difference.
Sandra's "not so big lie" means the end of Christa.

LAST EDITED ON 12-03-03 AT 12:48 PM (EST)

Tough call. trish, ryno and tijuana all had increased airtime in a three episode span before there boot.

andrew had the same amount throughout... it looks to be another andrew edited boot.

There isn't anyone with increased airtime like t, ryno and trish had.

backup, Lil
-Tij's chat regarding Rup and RyanO at LL: "They hated US"
suspicious about Snewsers checkmark coming so quickly on the heels of Tij boot

...either that, or Burton.

Summary of Reasoning:

Frankly, given that Christa took the blame for the fish in the grass, I figure that will be her downfall (a fate that rightfully belongs to Sandra).

Given the choice between a 4-person alliance with J/B//C/S and a three person alliance with J/B/L, it is clear that Jon and Burton will choose to stay allied with Lill. The previews suggest that a female alliance may take control. How many times have we seen previews suggest this when it never came CLOSE to happening? One too many for me to fall for it again... There is NO C/S/D alliance

Lill will report to Burton that she was approached by C/S and asked about forming a female alliance. J/B will use this to justify breaking their tentative alliance with the Drake women.

Worst case scenario, we have a tie between Burton and Christa if Darrah agrees to vote with the women. It seems more likely that Darrah will be pissed that C/S abandoned she and T, and will vote against Christa as payback.

Long Term Outlook / Constestant Strategy:

Christa and Sandra have two alliances to choose from... a 4-way alliance of women or a 4-way alliance with J/B. Given their past history with J/B, they will try to form the women's alliance. This will be used to justify J/B voting for Christa. Next week, Sandra will regroup and try once again to form a women's alliance. There will be no next week for Christa.

Jon and Burton have two alliances to choose from... a four-way alliance with C/S and a three-way alliance with Lill. In the long run, they are safer with Lill (3-2 advantage next TC, 3-1 the following TC, 2-1 the final TC), but they risk a 3-3 tie this week if they go with Lill over Christa and Sandra. Given that J/B have had no problem lying in the past, expect them to try to maintain both alliances in order to split the vote 4-2 between Christa and Darrah. After this week, they believe that they have everything set up for the final two... assuming that Lill doesn't jump ship next week and turn the tables on them.

Darrah has little choice this week. She will be given the choice between voting with a four-person alliance of women against Burton (or Jon) or voting with a four-person alliance with J/B/L against Christa (or Sandra). She may be slightly more inclined to stick with J/B/L given the fact that C/S betrayed her last week. Since we expect her to be approached by two separate alliances each claiming that they will have the 4-2 advantage, her decision will depend largely on what Lillian chooses to do, so she will defer to that decision. Next week, Darrah becomes the swing vote no matter which alliance triumphs this week... assuming Lillian realized that she is doomed to take third place if she sticks with her current alliance. Look for Darrah to strike new deals which will cement her position in the final three and possibly the final two.

Lillian is the swing vote this week, and she knows it. She can choose to ally with C/S and vote out her "secret ally" Burton, or she can choose to ally with J/B and vote out Christa, who she believes dumped the fish. Before making this crucial decision, Lillian will check one last time with ally Burton to make sure that she is still his partner for the final two. We have seen this conversation in the previews... it does not go well, and this is what makes her a swing vote (if he had just lied and promised her a spot in the final two, J/B would be home free as outlined above). No matter what happens this week, Lillian will be left in a tribe with one strong 2-person alliance (J/B or C/S) and with Darrah. Given Burton's reluctance to commit and Lillian and Darrah's current precarious place in the game, look for her to try to strike up a deal with Darrah. Keeping Burton in the game leaves Lillian the option of being third in a 3-person alliance of J/B/L (in which case she would NEED immunity), or in the worst case scenario third in a three-person alliance of S/D/L in which case she would have a slightly greater chance of winning immunity. If she votes out Burton, she would probably fall fourth in a 4-woman alliance, or in the best case scenario, would be in a chaotic alliance with J/D/L... and that's if she's lucky! Obviously Lill's best bet is to hedge her bets now by keeping current ally Burton around while looking for a potential new alliance with Darrah. Next week, look for Lillian to give Burton one last chance to declare his loyalty. If he does not, Lillian will jump ship and join the women's alliance (and if she's played her cards right with Darrah before this week's vote she will assure herself a spot in the final two alongside Darrah, barring immunity upsets). Given Sandra's hatred of Jon, Lillian may be able to hedge her bets one final time by keeping Burton around one more episode and eliminating Jon next week (giving herself a possible fall-back plan if Burton wins immunity in the final four). However, I expect the fear of a potential immunity run will outweigh Sandra's hatred of Jon, influencing them to vote for Burton (unless he wins immunity).

Bottom line:
Excluding immunity upsets, if everyone plays toward their best strategic positions at this point in the game, we should see the following:

E11: Lill recruits Darrah and votes with Burton and Jon against Christa. Christa and Sandra attempt to form a women's alliance to vote out Burton, but fail.

E12: (assuming Burton doesn't lie to Lill and promise her a spot in the final 2) Lill betrays Burton and votes with Sandra and Darrah against Burton to prevent a potential immunity run. Burton and Jon vote Sandra.

E13a: Assuming Darrah and Lill form an alliance in episode 11, Sandra and Jon are now the outsiders in this game. From a strategic standpoint, they *should* try to ally, but given their hatred of each other, this is unlikely to happen. Instead, Sandra will continue to rely on the female alliance and Jon will try to reconcile with former allies Lill and Darrah. Lill and Darrah have nothing to gain by allying with Jon, so they will stick with Sandra and vote 3-1 for Jon (who votes for Sandra).

E13b: Lill and Darrah will take each other to the final two. If Sandra wins immunity, she will take Lill and argue that she is more deserving (since Lill has actually been voted out of this game). Since I began this section by saying that I would assume that immunity wasn't an issue, I'll assume that Sandra is voted out here.

E13c: Lill will lose because she's already been voted out of this game once, and she really doesn't have enough redeeming qualities to make up for that. That makes Darrah the winner (or Sandra, if she wins the final immunity).

To make a long story short (too late):
Christa (this episode)
Burton
Jon
Sandra
Lillian
Darrah wins!

This, of course, assumes that everyone plays to their best strategic options at each stage of the game. (ONLY EXCEPTION: Burton will not lie to Lillian, which actually IS a strategic move (assuming that he will argue that he had more integrity that Jon in the final TC), given the promise that he made at the time he and Lill reented the game. If he's allied with Jon now, he should not lie about it.) Of course, we all know that the Survivors never play to their best strategic position... however, given that this is relatively consistent with the spoilers that we have this season, I think that it is probably close to what we will see play out over the next three weeks.

Its time for the fish lady to swim with the fishes. The biggest immunity threat amoung the women is sent packing.

Hard to add to EEE's brilliant analysis, but I will.

We've been told that indecision will prove costly. Last week, Christa and Sandra were indecisive about which F4 alliance to pursue - with T/D or B/J. This indecision will cost them.

We were also given Jon's confessional last week where we were told that Christa would pay a penalty for dumping the fish. I believe that this is one of the few true statements to come out of his mouth during the game.

Jon is the puppetmaster, and he was strategizing before he even got to the islands. Prior confessionals also show he's been thinking about the jury makeup/F2 partner since the get-go. By sticking with his alliance of 3, and adding Darrah to the mix, he sets himself up for the easiest arguments during the jury voting. All he'll have to argue is tribe loyalty (pick me over Darrah, I'm a Drake) or anti-Outcast (pick me over Lil or Burton, I've been in the game the whole time) or revenge (hey Morgans, pick me instead of Lil, your former tribemate who screwed you over).

Add it up, and Lil is his ideal F2 partner. Yes, he's made an alliance with Burton, and he's been able to take advantage of Burton's challenge strength to stick around. But when the time is right, he'll be open for ditching Burton and keeping Lil, since he figures he'll have R/D/T votes for sure if he takes her with him. Then he only has to have one Drake to win the whole thing.

But he promised Lil's head to Sandra and Christa on a platter, and he can't afford to have both of them stick around to screw him for lying. He's already succeeded in splintering T/D, and getting rid of Sandra or Christa will further splinter the opposition and keep him in apparent control. He'll have an easier time selling Lil - and even Darrah - on going after Christa because of the fish.

People who waver in an alliance or people who make too strategic of a move, are next up for boot.

Sandra is primed for this position. My thought is that people already know that Sandra would vote for anyone besides herself. Why not go ahead and mis-direct her vote and take her out by suprise. Mark my words, if Sandra mentions dumping Christa at all during this next episode, she will become too untrustworthy and will get the boot. For not being able to make up her mind. Or stick with her word.

Who knew that Jon wasn't lying when he said that Sandra won't make F4. We wouldn't have guessed from his performance. He spouts lies daily, however, everything he says ends up coming true.

But my guess is, that this is the editting choice for this season. Half-truths and hidden lies.

(And as much as I want to believe the forementioned, I still think Christa is going to get booted this week.)

tribephyl

and Burton next week.

I don't like it, but I don't see a plausible alternative.

---
UDG
When someone says, "I'll be honest with you," he/she is lying.

but I really hope it's Jon or Burton.

I'm convinced that Burton and Christa are the next two to go. Only going with Christa this week due to episode titles and not much else. To me it just makes more sense...

Dare to be different

Just because Bebekid says so...

I totally hope I'm wrong and that it is actually Jon, Lil, or Burton. Jon for being the lying, obnoxious slimeball that he is, Lil because she doesn't deserve to be there and I can't stand looking at her another minute, and Burton because he might be eye candy and have played well since coming back but he also does not deserve to be there.

Casting my mind back to my Shakespeare and thinking it is possible that it might be a Cassius making the title statement to egg on a possible Brutus rather than a Caesar asking the question directly to a Brutus. And might not a mutiny next week be against the person who has been pulling all the strings?

Just random thoughts on the titles. Still think it will be Christa and Burton next.

I hate to see her go. But my favorites have each gone the last two weeks, and I detest Christa least of the remaining stiffs. So she must be fated to go

Just to be different.

Prehaps by writing it, I can make it so.

Sad, but true. And I hope that beotch Sandra isn't far behind!!

It's her time to go, but I really, really, really, really want it to be Darrah. So she's my alternate pick.

They want us to think Jon and Burton are in trouble, but Jon will play the "my Grandmother's death has magically transformed me into a better person, so please let me stay and let's get rid of the evil-fish-destroyer-that-lied-thru-her-teeth instead" card, and then Burton'll go n' win immunity. Sandra'll want to get rid of Christa, as she is a constant reminder of the fish incident for which she is the real culpret, and she'll get Darrah and Jon to go along with it. Lill and Burton will probably be in on it too, but their votes aren't even needed. Christa's story has been trying to conclude for the last two weeks, so "The Big Bird Who Stole the Fish" goes this week 6-1.

~ EmRB

LAST EDITED ON 12-03-03 AT 01:42 PM (EST)

Look, no curves yet on this thresd...

Thanks to eee for providing the logic behind my PTTE - if it works I could finally win drich61's game (I can dream, can't I?).

So, Christa. Based on the huge sample size of 1 (...) I've determined that the non-spoiling folks think that the ep12 title means Burton goes. We've known for quite awhile that Christa and Burton are next, so that leaves Christa for ep11.

Plus, any brillantly logically illogical reasons to be provided by VerucaSalt....

Now, RC and IC - hmm, might need some pez...

forehead

ETA:
"forehead, I've come to the conclusion that logic has no place in Survivor but it only took me 7 seasons to figure that out I just hope that everyone will hear me cheering loudly when a mortician and a ghost deem Jon to the jury pool"

You won't be cheering alone

Psst: sigpic...

Editing in the previous week make it likely to happen this week.

It's her time.

Okaloosajohn

Probabably christa though...

LAST EDITED ON 12-03-03 AT 04:09 PM (EST)

Far be it from me to not think that after seeing her fiance and giving her renewed hope that didn't signify her deathwish

forehead, I've come to the conclusion that logic has no place in Survivor but it only took me 7 seasons to figure that out I just hope that everyone will hear me cheering loudly when a mortician and a ghost deem Jon to the jury pool

ETA: trust forehead to save my hide yet again

The men will go....

This is post number 59 tallying 57 votes and one prior tally:

Christa = 41
Burton = 9
Sandra = 2
Darrah = 2
Jon = 2
Lil = 1

Looks like Christa is our collective bootie.

~lroy

Sadly. I've grown fond of the little meth head.

~lroy

...though I'm really hoping it's Burton.

Sanrda wins immunity--after all, wouldn't she be the first target? She's the only one on the non-Jon side that's stirring things up.

It just makes sense. Of course that means we could be wrong

What the hey.

I've been doing so wretchedly this season, why not?

<miss KB's Confessional analysis>
URANG

Join Rupie et al at Loser Lodge.

don't ever trust Jon.

Maybe you and Rupe can score some killer Panama Red....

Buh bye

EJ

As Jims02 said, the weekly clips/promos were pure misdirection. Burton stays for awhile, Christa goes this week.

Too Bad So Sad, I really Liked her

Come in a stranger,leave a little stranger

Not because I think so, just because I *want* so, hehe ...

---------------------------------------

http://brykmantra.blogspot.com

Due to boost in popularity in CBS poll (happens with many contestents) and because people speculated she might be in ASS, meaning an earlier boot

I think she goes this week and Burton next.

Christa or Sandra seem the obvious targets.

Jon won't flip on Burton yet becasue it would leave him too vulnerable. If he really wanted to dump Burton, he could have done it last week.

Burton and Jon know they need to bust up the remaining pair. Lill is tied to Burton (for now, but next week will be a different story) and singleton Darrah will tag along with any group that keeps her in the game three more days.

Which one goes? The one that seems to inspire conflict with and dislike from everyone (why aren't we seeing it!), is the bigger immunity threat, and, as far as they know, dumped the fish.

It's Christa 4 - 2.

Burton as backup...Though I really wish it would be Jon, I think no such luck at least this week.

I voted for her last week and I'm sticken' with her.

Please leave my TV screen Christa!

-PP

alt Burton

Burton goes next week

alt: Burton

Sandra

Take that you lying scumbag.

I like the reasoning for this boot, and besides, she needs to see the Dr. for those bites. Sandra buys some time by stabbing her ally in the back.

Alt: Burton
Alt alt: Jon
Alt alt alt: Sandra
etc, etc...

-LookeeLoo

Bye Bye Big Bird.

...it's time for you to go!

Jon, its just time to get rid of this prick!!!

cause I hate him almost as much as Jon and he is nowhere near as entertaining.

Going with the flow....wish it were either Jon or Burton though.

Here it is...

Christa leads with 63
Burton with 12
Sandra with 4
Darrah with 2
Jon with 4
Lil with 1

For a total of 86 with 3 vote tallies...

too obvious

I wish it was Jon but I believe she has run out of time.

Darah. *JOKE* If ah cou undahsan yah a lil bi bettah ah prolly wouldn vote for yah. *JOKE*

All kidding aside. She needs to go. Its the smart thing for everone else to do. Jon and Burton are one step closer, and Christa/Lil/Sandra still have the option for an alliance at the last second to save their asses.

As it stands for me at 945 am

RC: Jon (jon/lil/darrah)
IC: Burrrrton
Boot: Christa

*I wanted to wait and see if I could snatch #100 again, but work is going to keep me away from the boards most of the day *pout*

Burton. I'm going with Burton because while Christa is being set up as the one going this week, I think we're going to see the "Brutus" thing play out with Burton and Lil. Caesar and Brutus were tight. Similar interests kept a bond between them (Rome). Burton and Lil are tight. Similar interests keep a bond between them (Outcasts). But Burton is a Brutus because he's got a side plot going with Jon (Cassius) to bring them both up to power (F2) and leave the one person they need right now to further their plan (Lil) bleeding on the Senate floor.

This is going to backfire on them and both Burton and Jon will be sitting on the jury trying to figure out a way to take the knives out of their own backs.

I'm seeing this play out this week mainly because JP said that he didn't like Jon at all. But eventually he was rooting for him. Jon has to be way down low for this to happen. Jon's gotta lose his one sure fire way to F2 and that would be Burton. We've got precious few episodes left for this to play out so I see Burton going this week. Jon is left with a bunch of women who would much rather be alone than have him as their only sample of "man". Jon will be alone, worried, playing up the grandma card for sympathy big time and looking for the first time in the season like he's actually aware that their are other people on the island besides himself.

Burton must go this week for this to happen.

Have I speculated, assumed and gone over the top? Sure, you bettcha but it was fun and I think these are strong possibilities.

mistofleas --picks the safe alternative of Christa and says "nevermind"

yea yea i no about that whole older lady in the final rumor but i believe that lady will be either christa or burton

is toast.

Christa!

Because Burton wins IC. Otherwise, he'd go.

Gerbees

Seems to be her time.

Never doublecross Big Lill.

that's my opinion...

I thought the title meant Burton, but next week's title screams Burton even more, so this week must be Christa

But I so hope it's Burton...

Lizzmac

You and Sandra went to D/T last week and got them to vote for Burton only to backstab them and vote off T......there's no way that Darrah is going with the likes of S/C this week.....Christa's the biggest threat....or perhaps that's just the biggest.....she's outta here!

nm

Snewser says,,,Where is krautboy?

Following the crowd.

Guess I'll just follow the crowd.

Good-bye Christa, we have all heard enough of your mono-toned confessionals! PEACE-OUT

LAST EDITED ON 12-04-03 AT 03:50 PM (EST)

This is post number 112 tallying 108 votes and 3 prior counts:

Christa = 79
Burton = 15
J.Fairplay = 5
Sandra = 4
Darrah = 3
Lil = 2

Looks like Christa is our vote to go bu-bye...

~lroy

ETA: I counted lojik98's vote aka rule breaker of rule number 1 as Darrah.