I know there're hundreds of alliance threads out there, but I couldn't find one that discusses all the alliances in a single thread. Here are the more specific threads...

PhoenixMons Jon/Sandra Alliance
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4489.shtml

Hlb Chica Alliance
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4454.shtml

Esquire Lill/Jon Alliance
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4468.shtml

KObrien_fan Burton/Lill Alliance
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4459.shtml

Now for my babble.

Pink - Chica Alliance Purple - Outcast Alliance Blue - Drake Alliance

Darrah
Tijuana was her strongest ally, so she's kind of alone right now. (Duh.) She has betrayed Burton/Jon (Burton doesn't know this) and they have returned the favour the last TC, so I don't see her going back with the Outcasts/Jon. Sandra's club is her only chance right now. Darrah has acknowledged that Burton is the strongest threat and should continue to go for him.

Sandra
Sandra would have no chance if she joins the Outcasts/Jon pact, so she has two choices right now. She can continue with Plan A, hatched just before the last TC, and absorb Jon/Burton into her club. This makes an alliance of 4, and they can pick off Darrah and Lill. Plan B means creating the Chica Alliance, another group of 4. Both alliances have her good friend Christa with her. By the way, she Jon is her mortal enemy and she trusts him as much as he weighs. What are the chances she'd stay with Plan A?

Christa
Sandra would never confess to the tribe that she's the fish-dumper, so Christa's jumping ship to Burton's side isn't likely. Her strongest ally is still Sandra, and wouldn't mind bringing Darrah along. She has been proposing the Chica Alliance all those weeks, why stop now?

Burton
Burton's only friends are Jon and Lillian. That's it. Really.

Lillian
Lill's comfortable with either alliance, but Jon might want to sacrifice her to join Sandra's club. She seems safe for a few more bootings, whichever alliance she chooses. Doubting Burton in the previews? Seems like Sandra/Christa have sent their invitation cards. Nobody hates her, and she might remain under the radar enough to last to F4 or even F2.

Jon
He's revealed to us that his greatest ally is Burton. Promises mean nothing to him, so I assume he's going to stay with Lill and Burton for a while longer. Maybe even pull Darrah along to get rid of the Drake women first. He's safe with Burton, nobody would target Jon before Burt, even when their hate becomes a major source of global warming. Who would he target? Well, anybody. But to win this thing, he has to stay with the Outcasts.

So, Lill and Jon would stay for weeks to come, and the three alliances? Pick one. Good luck.

• RE: Alliances After Ep10,volsfan, 10:43 PM, 11-28-03
  • RE: Alliances After Ep10,Loree, 11:19 AM, 11-29-03
    • RE: Alliances After Ep10,volsfan, 03:11 PM, 12-03-03
      • RE: Alliances After Ep10,JazzyJax, 03:27 PM, 12-03-03
        • RE: Alliances After Ep10,DoodleBug, 03:58 PM, 12-03-03

You make some good points but also some assumptions as well!

1) You say that Burton doesn't know that Darrah has turned on him and I sort of believe this...but he (Burton) did get two votes on Wednesday's show...so are you saying that he (Burton) thinks those came from Sandra and Christa? If so, how did Jon convince Burton to go against T and who did Jon tell Burton was also voting T? We were shown Sandra talking with Jon but we didn't see Jon talking with Burton.

2) I think Sandra holds the cards right now determing which alliance she takes! We might find out on the next show...many people are believing that Burton goes (right now). However, we are shown, on the previews, Sandra approaching Darrah...which is discussed in one of the threads you have linked here.

3) If your assumption that Burton doesn't know that Darrah has turned on him then Burton thinks all is great and that their alliance of 4 will out live the other two left (Sandra and Christa). It all depends on how Jon approached Burton about the T boot.

4) You say that Jon's greatest ally is Burton. I totally disagree..BURTON'S greatest ally is Jon! Burton has been shown telling Jon that he is "putting all his eggs in Jon's basket"! (I am sorry that doesn't sound good but the only way I know to say it! No bad puns here folks!). Also, if Jon's greatest ally is Burton...then you must assume that Burton is safe this week!

Just my thoughts!

Again folks...sorry about Burton's eggs in Jon's basket!

Jon is not definitely safe as long as the stronger Burton is around to target. Burton wins challenges. Jon doesn't. When Burton wins the IC who would the women want to boot if they can't boot Burton? His right hand man that is trying to protect him - JON. Jon says he wants to keep Burton around. But he is not going to do it if it turns everyone against himself. He would sacrifice Burton if he needed to. Jon is all about diversion. Always directing the vote against someone other than himself. Sandra is the same way.

Loree, I agree with what you are saying...however, my point: in the first post there is an assumption made that Burton doesn't know that T has turned on him. I was just making the point that Burton MAY know that T has turned on him. We don't know this for sure. If Burton knows that T has turned on him, then he thinks the two votes he received came from T and Darrah. If Burton doesn't know that T has turned on him...then he thinks the votes came from Sandra and Christa...We don't know for sure.

Just saying

Great posts going on here! IMHO though, Burton knows T & D voted against him. No way would Jon keep it quiet that he was able to manipulate Sandra and Christa AGAIN. At TC, Burton's words while voting were pretty confident. Just my opinion here though!

For that matter, Sandra could have told Burton that T turned on him. Sandra loves gossip and is always the first person to run and tell.... I could just see her telling Burton... "oh man, I heard T and Darrah talking in the woods. They're going to vote for you tonight. We need to get rid of T."

I think Sandra has her hands in everybody's basket.

carrying on with the pun....