You're right on the money with everything you said.

I realize a Joe/Vince partnership will never happen, but it would probably be a good core alliance.

"Creepy needy"...I like that, and it's so true.

I get what you're saying about not wanting to be upstaged by a more attractive woman. Another theory came to mind that reminded me of a college teammate of mine MANY years ago. The guy was a real pig and he always said when you're out and there's a group of girls, approach one who is NOT the best looking. If she knows there are better looking girls around her and she is STILL singled out, you've got a better shot.

I hear ya, another one we'll hear about game play and masterful strategy in post game interviews. Naturally we'll hear about what solid game play he orchestrated from Day One but we didn't know about it because of a "bad edit." Same old...same old...

I agree with what you have said, especially the part about Vince!

1 - Jenn: Will chose her because he trusted her. Vince aligned with her because she seemed "real" and Joe likes her, calls her princess. Jenn accomplished exactly what players should do in the premiere.

2 - Joe: Many people have said they prepared for the island but few did it as well as "McGyver". I was expecting him to be one of the fastest and strongest in challenges but I didn't expect him to be that good in puzzles. He's the total package and likable...for every sane member of the tribe!

3 - Mike: His desire to seize opportunities led to some funny decisions but Mike is a player. It looks like Rodney has the numbers but I don't see the tribe turning against Mike.

4 - Shirin: She's the one that made the alliance that saved Carolyn. She's a fan of the show and she certainly played like someone who knows what to do. I think she will be fun to watch.

5 - Tyler: Like Carolyn, he played it safe throughout the episode but simply being the "Big Guy" kept him off So's radar. He is now in a very good position to decide how things evolve and I wouldn't be surprised to see him flush the idol. Because they are so easy to find, it would pay off nicely to eliminate the weak link and get the idol back in play.

6- Vince: The episode was quite entertaining and a lot of it was due to this crazy guy. I was expecting a big character but not the "Jealous Villain". Normally, this guy should have coasted to the merge but he may just get himself voted out early. It would be a shame.

7- Rodney: Like Vytas, he used a personal tragedy to his advantage. That's what, in the old days, we used to call stragedy! I hope he can come up with other nicknames for people because that was the only funny thing he did. The guy could be headed for the finale but he is one of the few dull people this season.

8- Hali: She's cute. I was expecting her to use the No Collar label to her advantage, say that as a Law Student she can make decisions but instead she adopted the "Free Spirit" label and did nothing.

9- Dan: Another entertaining guy. He loves Survivor and it shows and I cracked up at his comment to Lindsey: "That is the dumbest thing ever." HIS comment was the dumbest ever. The opening twist put him in a no win situation but he still enjoyed his "best day ever."

10- Sierra: While Lindsey looked scared by Dan's outburst, Sierra burst out laughing. That is rare in this game where everyone is so guarded. She won't take any BS even if what she sees as BS is true. Blue's "villainness" could be more interesting than expected.

11- Max: Like I expected, the Survivor professor stayed back and probably would have taken too long to form an alliance if it hadn't been for Shirin. At least, he had the sense to accept the offer but his talk with So before the vote showed that he isn't all in with the two ladies. I expect (and hope) that Max will turn into a villain and start spreading a web of lies.

12- Carolyn: She had a great premiere but she may have made a fatal mistake by telling Tyler about her idol IF she didn't tell Shirin and Max also. We didn't hear her telling them but it could have been edited out. If she did make that mistake, it won't take long for Max to realize that she hadn't been true with him from day one and that would send her packing quickly.

13- Lindsey: Don't you just love how the "mentally strongest person on this Earth" can be swayed so easily! Mike tells her that he was being honest about the beans and she jumps for joy. Sierra tells her that Mike and Dan are full of crap and she immediately believes her. Rodney tells her his tragic story and she falls for him. If she is mentally stronger than the rest of us, I think we are doomed.

14 - Joaquin: Without anyone left to flirt with, this bozo must be hoping for a swap. Fortunately for him, Tyler and Max could very well flip the game on Carolyn and he could survive despite being a dumba$$. That's what I call the Anti-Darwin Syndrome!!

15 - Will: With all the cameras around, I was expecting him to start singing and dancing but it seems he keeps that for Leno. I'm confident of my pre-season assessment that he will be victim of Survivor's version of the "Peter Principle": He will go far but he will reach a point where his likability becomes a liability.

16 - Kelly: She isn't as cute. I was expecting she could be like Amy O'Hara but she was more like Lisa Keifer.

17 - Nina: She knew she needed to give 110% to stay in the game but she gave about 1%. Tribes always have an easy first boot and she certainly fits the bill.

Booted - So: So what?

Nice ranking. After reading your assessments I probably should have ranked Shirin a little higher only because she did approach Carolyn and Max shortly thereafter to initiate the three-person alliance. Although when So’s hand shot up in the air faster than a patriot missile to join Joaquin, the two remaining women bonding together was as much a no-brainer as you’ll get. And bringing in the oldest guy to join the oldest woman was just as blatantly obvious. But doing the obvious has usually been a challenge for the bozos normally casted, so Shirin does deserve some Kudos.

As for making the alliance that saved Carolyn, let’s not forget had Shirin not choked in the challenge Carolyn would not have needed to be saved.

With the three-person alliance intact I don’t fault Carolyn for telling Tyler about the HII and securing the necessary fourth vote. You make a good point about whether Max and/or Shirin knew about it, but I don’t see that as “fatal” as you do. Should Mayasa go to TC again as a tribe of five and being the oldest woman, I believe Carolyn plays her HII regardless. The case you make for Tyler wanted to flush out the idol because it can be found easily, no one knows that better than Carolyn herself…after all SHE’S the one who found it. So may as well hold nothing to chance, play the idol, and try to be another Tony or Hantz who went on to find multiple idols. And if they don’t go to another TC before the tribe swap, who she told and who she didn’t tell probably becomes a moot point depending on how the new tribes swap out.

I don’t regard Vytas and Rodney sharing personal tragedy as savvy strategic game play as much as a "you are who you are" getting to know each other process during the opening days of the game. Now if you fabricate or make up a tragedy, i.e., Hantz with Hurricane Katrina or Fairplay with Dead Grandma, those scenarios would qualify as preconceived strategic game moves. Of course doing so sets you up to be the season villain but that hardly matters to most castaways.

The way I saw it I think it was more So eyeing Joaquin than the other way around. With HALF the Blue and Red tribes consisting of players in their 20s and Joaquin the SOLE LONE White Collar under 30, you bet your bottom dollar he’s hoping to make the tribal swap!

>Nice ranking. After reading your assessments
>I probably should have ranked
>Shirin a little higher only
>because she did approach Carolyn
>and Max shortly thereafter to
>initiate the three-person alliance.
>Although when So’s hand shot
>up in the air faster
>than a patriot missile to
>join Joaquin, the two remaining
>women bonding together was as
>much a no-brainer as you’ll
>get. And bringing in the
>oldest guy to join the
>oldest woman was just as
>blatantly obvious. But doing the
>obvious has usually been a
>challenge for the bozos normally
>casted, so Shirin does deserve
>some Kudos.

From So's exit interview, it seems that Shirin did more than the obvious since So told her about the idol clue and promised her safety.

>As for making the alliance that
>saved Carolyn, let’s not forget
>had Shirin not choked in
>the challenge Carolyn would not
>have needed to be saved.

But if Joaquin doesn't pick the 50 piece puzzle than maybe Shirin wins the IC. The puzzle may have been easier but 50 pieces on a small table, that's hard to handle.

>With the three-person alliance intact I
>don’t fault Carolyn for telling
>Tyler about the HII and
>securing the necessary fourth vote.
> You make a good
>point about whether Max and/or
>Shirin knew about it, but
>I don’t see that as
>“fatal” as you do.

If she told Tyler, she had to tell her first allies. If she didn't, they will feel betrayed. That's a fatal mistake.

>Should Mayasa go to TC
>again as a tribe of
>five and being the oldest
>woman, I believe Carolyn plays
>her HII regardless.

Not if they convince her that Joaquin is going.

>The case
>you make for Tyler wanted
>to flush out the idol
>because it can be found
>easily, no one knows that
>better than Carolyn herself…after all
>SHE’S the one who found
>it. So may as well
>hold nothing to chance, play
>the idol, and try to
>be another Tony or Hantz
>who went on to find
>multiple idols.

Yes, that could happen. I'm sure that, like me, you prefered it when the idols were hard to find (...or even when there were no idols but those good old days will never return) Making the idols so obvious alters the game. Yet, when you have it in your pocket, you'd like to keep it there for a while.

>And if they
>don’t go to another TC
>before the tribe swap, who
>she told and who she
>didn’t tell probably becomes a
>moot point depending on how
>the new tribes swap out.

Carolyn was the one that realized the other two tribes were looking at the White Collars with daggers in their eyes. She'd really want to keep that idol for a swap, especially considering she may wind up on a beach where the idol was already found.

>I don’t regard Vytas and Rodney
>sharing personal tragedy as savvy
>strategic game play as much
>as a "you are who
>you are" getting to know
>each other process during the
>opening days of the game.
>Now if you fabricate or
>make up a tragedy, i.e.,
>Hantz with Hurricane Katrina or
>Fairplay with Dead Grandma, those
>scenarios would qualify as preconceived
>strategic game moves. Of course
>doing so sets you up
>to be the season villain
>but that hardly matters to
>most castaways.

Telling about his sister death wasn't the strategic part. Using it to gain trust is what matters and Rodney succeeded.

>The way I saw it I
>think it was more So
>eyeing Joaquin than the other
>way around.

Yes, blame the woman...A guy would never eye a woman with bad intentions...

>With HALF the
>Blue and Red tribes consisting
>of players in their 20s
>and Joaquin the SOLE LONE
>White Collar under 30, you
>bet your bottom dollar he’s
>hoping to make the tribal
>swap!

If I was in Tyler and Max's place, I'd make Joaquin my new best friend. He's a great shield and very dumb. That's the perfect ally. Suppose Tyler and Max make the merger with Shirin and Carolyn: Who would be the first target? Not Shirin or Carolyn, that's for sure.

>"From So's exit interview, it seems that Shirin did more than the obvious since So told her about the idol clue and promised her safety."

You know how much stock I put in exit interviews especially when given by someone who has been SOOOOOO honest up to this point. LMAO
Anyway I was talking about what Shirin proactively initiated HERSELF. What So decided to initiate herself has nothing to do with what Shirin obviously DID. If So wanted to share the clue it was going to be with another woman...that's obvious. And the woman would be one who is her age as opposed to someone over 20 years older...that's BLATANTLY obvious regardless of anything Shirin "did."

>"But if Joaquin doesn't pick the 50 piece puzzle than maybe Shirin wins the IC. The puzzle may have been easier but 50 pieces on a small table, that's hard to handle."

NOOOO way I'm believing the choice of puzzle was a knee-jerk spur of the moment decision made by one player. I'm certain all the tribes discussed which puzzle to pick amongst themselves when given time to strategize.

>"If she told Tyler, she had to tell her first allies. If she didn't, they will feel betrayed. That's a fatal mistake."

Maybe Shirin, but she needs the only woman left in her tribe despite any assumed "betrayal." I don't believe Max will feel betrayed. He would have done the same. As a professor/student of the game he understands that. Any other reaction would depict him as a bitter sore-losing hypocrite...and I not seeing Max as that kind.

>"Not if they convince her that Joaquin is going."

Based on what we saw from Carolyn in the Premier I don't see her falling for any of that "convincing." If I'm overestimating her keen ability to read people--then my bad. If White loses two challenges this quickly right off the bat she will KNOW she's at risk despite what anyone may assure her or despite any alliances formed with these strangers in less than a week. She would play it IMO.

>"Yes, that could happen. I'm sure that, like me, you prefered it when the idols were hard to find (...or even when there were no idols but those good old days will never return) Making the idols so obvious alters the game. Yet, when you have it in your pocket, you'd like to keep it there for a while."

And if you get voted off without playing your idol it stays in your pocket for a REAL LOOOOOONG while.

>"Carolyn was the one that realized the other two tribes were looking at the White Collars with daggers in their eyes. She'd really want to keep that idol for a swap, especially considering she may wind up on a beach where the idol was already found."

But you have to get to the swap first. Once again, if White loses two ICs this quickly, a 50+ year old woman is most at risk. Whereas you refuse to acknowledge the greatest divide in Reality TV, many others (Carolyn included) are keenly aware of that fact.

>"Telling about his sister death wasn't the strategic part. Using it to gain trust is what matters and Rodney succeeded."

The two main reasons he mentioned his sister was 1) You are who you are getting to know each other process, and 2) a reason to flex his arm and show off his bicep. Any so-called "success" that evolved from those two main reasons was purely out of circumstance.

>"Yes, blame the woman...A guy would never eye a woman with bad intentions... "

I don't think So had "bad intentions." Just a case of a divorcee on a rebound. Accusing me of "blaming the woman" is blindly ignorant on your part. Stating Vince was the predator eyeing Jenn would be an accurate observation...one I inferred a few times on these boards. Based on your accusation why would I state that?...Although he's got long flowing hair, I would not regard Vince a woman.

>"If I was in Tyler and Max's place, I'd make Joaquin my new best friend. He's a great shield and very dumb. That's the perfect ally. Suppose Tyler and Max make the merger with Shirin and Carolyn: Who would be the first target? Not Shirin or Carolyn, that's for sure."

You make a good point with Tyler, but I'm not seeing that with Max. I'm thinking Max is content to hang with the ladies and be their "protector" of sort.

Looking at our rankings, it's obvious that I like Shirin more than you do and I'm used to see you put down people you don't like. If So trusted Shirin enough to tell her about the clue then Shirin had to earn that trust. It's not an automatic. Anyway, I think that, after this week, we will never agree on Shirin (and I feel you may drop Max in your list as quickly has he drops trou!)

What is funny is that we argue on Rodney even if we both placed him 7th. You wrote this about him: "I don’t see his tactic as trying to form a showmance as much as wanting to use the women for his game. If my assumption is correct, he gets props as a player." Isn't that exactly the same thing as what I wrote? You used tactic, I used strategy but the result is the same. It was a good move.

I certainly know that age is a big reason to boot someone but it doesn't mean that all 50 year olds are doomed. Many have made it to the end. With that in mind, I have a hard time understanding your certitude about Carolyn keeping her idol for later when she already kept it once!! In Masaya's first TC, she had to be worried about the vote, she hadn't yet seen if Max and Tyler were trustworthy yet she kept her idol. In the second TC, now that Max and Tyler proved they were with her, she could do the same. I can't be sure she will but you certainly can't be sure she won't unless you can see the future.

As for my comment about Joaquin, it was sarcasm...I know you like that clown so I was rubbing it in a little.

I admit Joaquin was a preseason fav of mine going by his Bio. But as stated in my ranking I did sour on him because of his blunders during the Premier. Now if those blunders equate to an early departure, he has himself to blame. But being the only Masaya under 30 when HALF of the other tribes are in their 20s certainly doesn't help his cause. What he does have in his favor is Masaya possibly feeling the need to keep him around to prevent turning into another Luzon tribe who went on to lose three ICs even BEFORE the tribal swap.

Yeah, a couple 50+ players made it to the Finals. Bob (Gabon) went on to victory thanks to his string of challenge wins. Had he lost any one of them, there was a seat on the Jury with his name on it. Lil got to the Finals in Pearl Islands by winning the most important final IC to control her fate. When you're able to win key challenges down the stretch and control your own fate, age becomes less of a factor. Despite those exceptions age is still the greatest divide in Reality TV.

You're used to me putting down people I don't like? REALLY??? As a person I disliked Tony yet I put that dislike aside and heralded him as the deserving winner who out-worked, out-searched, and out-played everyone else. I regard Russell Hantz as the most vile individual to play the game, but I also put that dislike aside when I appropriately said he owned the game in Samoa. I even personally disliked Natalie last season but acknowledged her as a deserving winner. Quite frankly, I'm not sure what you claim to be "used to?"

Shirin "earned" So's trust by having a vagina (just like So) and by being 31 years old (just like So.) I'll tell you what I'M used to...having someone apply their PhD in Spinology to create credit for players THEY personally like.

Bottom line, if people don't put on their car headlights when driving at night, I will appropriately criticize them as idiots. If they do, I'm not going out of my way to blow sunshine up their butts just for doing something obvious. But hey, that's me...I guess I'm "funny" like that.

Yes, I ranked Rodney #7. Taking advantage of Dan's blunder leaving Rodney with the girls, I gave him props for using that opportunity to reach out to the women and form a majority. But that's where it ended for me. With the extra credit you gave him it's a wonder you didn't rank him in your top three when he was getting to know his tribe mates on Day One and using it as a reason to flex his bicep.

Going to TC on Day Three when the novelty of a newly formed alliance was still fresh and pulling in Tyler for the 4th vote with her HII was a calculated risk Carolyn was willing to take. Perhaps you never heard of the saying "going to the well one time too many?" I have...and I'm banking on the fact Carolyn has also. All I'm saying is if Masaya loses a second IC this early, being a 50+ year-old woman should NOT make her feel safe regardless of any assurance or convincing that may come her way. If she thinks lightening can strike twice by not playing her HII and goes to the well again only for it to be empty, then shame on her. And I will have to own up to the fact that I overestimated Carolyn as a player based on the Premier.

"Bob (Gabon) went on to victory thanks to his string of challenge wins. Had he lost any one of them, there was a seat on the Jury with his name on it."

Bob won immunity at F7, F6 and F5. He could have beenn voted out at F8 and F4. Anyway, you seem to forget Susie who also made it to the end. Besides them, there's been plenty of players on the wrong side of the age divide that made it to the end starting all the way back with Rudy.

I'm used to seeing you put down people like Parvati, Cirie, Courtney and many others. Your reaction to Shirin reminded me of that.

I don't consider F8 the endgame or "winning a key IC down the stretch." F4 was a travesty of monumental proportions with the last and final IC a silly house of cards challenge. What a friggin' joke! I could see that as a post merge reward challenge but not the final and most important IC of the season!

Anyway Bob did step up in the F4 and won the fire building tie-breaker challenge to earn his way into the Finals.

>there's been plenty of players
>on the wrong side of
>the age divide that made
>it to the end starting
>all the way back with
>Rudy.

OK, let's go all the way back to Rudy. The first two castaways voted off Survivor in the history of this game were 63 and 64 respectively.

Off to watch Ep. 2 and start another thread...

One final thought on your comment before we kick back and watch Ep. 2 tonight...

>"If she told Tyler, she had to tell her first allies. If she didn't, they will feel betrayed. That's a fatal mistake."

With So spreading Carolyn's name all over the place like fertilizer and Carolyn knew So pulled EVERYONE aside, her allies had to be the ones to inform Carolyn FIRST of what So was doing.

But it was TYLER who approached Carolyn to give her verbal confirmation of what Carolyn suspected. And should you get the notion to conveniently play an "edit card," it was obvious to me by her reaction and body language the confirmation from Tyler was the first she heard of it.

Reacting upon this confirmation by telling Tyler about the HII is not a fatal betrayal in my book.

And should Shirin or Max start crying on Carolyn's a$$ and feel "betrayed" about not finding out about the HII first, she could cry back and feel just as "betrayed" that the confirmation of So targeting her initially came from Tyler...and not an ally.

>With So spreading Carolyn's name all
>over the place like fertilizer
>and Carolyn knew So pulled
>EVERYONE aside, her allies had
>to be the ones to
>inform Carolyn FIRST of what
>So was doing.
>But it was TYLER who approached
>Carolyn to give her verbal
>confirmation of what Carolyn suspected.

Yes, that explains why Carolyn to Tyler, I don't object to her telling him.

>And should Shirin or Max start
>crying on Carolyn's a$$ and
>feel "betrayed" about not finding
>out about the HII first,
>she could cry back and
>feel just as "betrayed" that
>the confirmation of So targeting
>her initially came from Tyler...and
>not an ally.

This is where you miss the point: If Shirin and Max feel betrayed (remember, they have been looking for an idol that has been in Carolyn's pocket for days) they wouldn't tell Carolyn, they would simply boot her after telling her that Joaquin is the target.

Even if Carolyn finds out that they learned about her omission. I'm a bit surprised by your suggestion that she should argue with Max and Shirin. Crying back isn't exactly the best social play. Profuse apologies would work better.

In that case we're not talking "betrayal"...we're talking about being a jealous crybaby over Carolyn doing a better job finding something they were unable to.

I never mentioned "argue" and when I said "cry" I didn't mean for anyone to start bawling their eyes out.

Carolyn's initial intention was to tell no one. Hey, if Max had found it you really think he would have ran over to Carolyn to tell his ally about his finding??? Come on now, you KNOW he would have kept it to himself.

Carolyn shared it with Tyler because Tyler shared So's targeting with Carolyn. Tit for Tat.

If Max or Shirin wanted to find out about the HII first they should have been the first to confirm So's boot target to Carolyn.

The point I was making is you can't blame Carolyn's for doing what was necessary at the time by calling it a "fatal" mistake. What's REALLY unfortunately is Carolyn being placed in that position to begin with because of Shirin failing miserably in the challenge.

To help me out in another game, who do you think will get booted next?

LAST EDITED ON 03-03-15 AT 06:49 PM (EST)

I wouldn't want to put anything here that could be considered a spoiler so I sent my answer by PM.

Hey Agman,

I never go into any Spoilers (this site or elsewhere) and I see no harm in discussing predictions.

In guessing who gets the boot you'd have to predict first who loses the challenge.

Blue and Red tribes get to sit someone out. I'd be surprised if pathetically inept Nina from the Red tribe and "Dickie-Does" Dan from the Blue are not chosen to sit.

As orgasmic as Production has been with puzzles, I really don't think they start off the season with the FIRST TWO challenges needing to solve a puzzle to win. With that said and assuming Dan sits out, no way Blue loses.

I also don't see White losing the first two challenges, so I'm predicting Red loses and has a date with TC. If that be the case the greatest divide in Reality TV will claim its latest victim--NINA.

Of course another possibility is if we have an obvious goat in the challenge, that goat could suffer the ultimate penalty and be the second Survivor voted off. If Nina sits, she can't be the goat...but I'm still leaning toward NINA.

LAST EDITED ON 03-04-15 AT 11:42 AM (EST)

Thank you Aruba and MIchel