So last week, I managed to do something in the vote thread to get myself quoted in Bebekid's sig line. I don't think I can top that this week, so I probably shouldn't even try. But if you want to be mentioned here, send me a bribe in my email and I'll see what I can do.

THIS SPACE FOR RENT

The Rules

1. Please put the name of your choice for this week's bootee IN THE SUBJECT HEADING! This is really easy. Just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" and replace with your vote, i.e., Rupert. This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Oh, and btw... nicknames are tougher to tally unless they're REALLY obvious without actually reading your vote.

2. Reply ONLY to this post! Curves on women are good. Curves on vote threads are bad. The first part bears repeating: I like curves on women. Y'know, I'm not sure if I've been clear enough about this. Curves on women are really great things. Actually, I bless God for women in general. Better than barbecued ribs. (So, outta curiosity, how many people get this reference?)

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

If it just so happens that you wanna change your vote for whatever reason, REPLY TO YOUR ORIGINAL POST! Your new post heading should read "VOTE CHANGE: Osten (or Whoever)". That said, there is not an exception to the fact that curves on women are good, even better than barbecued ribs, and I really like barbecued ribs. Is anyone else hungry yet?

3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD! DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please. Or I keel. The lone exception to this is this post, because I like to talk about and really, what can you do about it? You're all hostage to my weekly whims.

4. No sig pics! It was suggested that because this can be such a long thread, sig pics make it really hard to load for folks with dial-up connections. So show some respect to your slower brethren (and sistren). And really, if I can refrain from flashing my beautiful greens and making people all swoony, surely you can refrain just this once from extolling IceCat's animated glory, no?

Have fun! And as Buggy would say, "Be well. Be safe."

Criminals From the Neck Up † The Writers' Rendez-Vous † SmokeLong Quarterly

• Darrah,SherpaDave, 07:25 PM, 10-21-03
• Shawn,mtopaz, 07:28 PM, 10-21-03
• Deada Darrah,strid333, 07:47 PM, 10-21-03
• Shawn (Christa's my backup),Blow by Blow, 07:49 PM, 10-21-03
• Jon,1unatic, 09:12 PM, 10-21-03
  • Vote Change- Trish,1unatic, 11:51 AM, 10-23-03
• RE: Shawn,KObrien_fan, 09:15 PM, 10-21-03
• Trish,Oscirus, 09:19 PM, 10-21-03
  • Vote Change: Christa,Oscirus, 01:26 PM, 10-23-03
• Rupert,cowboyroo, 09:45 PM, 10-21-03
  • Vote Change-Rupert, Trish AND Shawn,cowboyroo, 03:56 AM, 10-23-03
• Shawn,O2dawg, 09:50 PM, 10-21-03
• Rupert,djandy, 09:51 PM, 10-21-03
• Shawn,JazzyJax, 10:16 PM, 10-21-03
• Shawn,Krautboy, 11:03 PM, 10-21-03
  • Vote Change: Trish,Krautboy, 05:12 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,IceCat, 11:06 PM, 10-21-03
• Shawn,hrc2u, 11:11 PM, 10-21-03
• Jon,Nash, 11:17 PM, 10-21-03
  • RE: Jon Change to TRISH,Nash, 06:47 PM, 10-22-03
• HEY JON...,Round Robin, 11:31 PM, 10-21-03
• Shawn,Jims02, 11:35 PM, 10-21-03
• Andrew,JLude, 00:20 AM, 10-22-03
• Jon!!!,SurvivorJoel, 00:53 AM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,mavsfan, 01:15 AM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,I_AM_HE, 01:20 AM, 10-22-03
• Jon,SnowBunny, 02:27 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,Thaibeach, 06:52 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,railfan, 07:19 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawny Shawn,Jayzzzy, 08:49 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,Sexishelly, 09:12 AM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,RoxRen, 09:13 AM, 10-22-03
• Supert Dupert Rupert ,ElroyJetson, 09:15 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,aethelstan, 09:29 AM, 10-22-03
  • Vote change: Trish,aethelstan, 05:28 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,samboohoo, 09:37 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,badger, 09:45 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,Gweedeaux, 09:46 AM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,toddE, 09:47 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,Spidey, 09:52 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,bebekid, 10:44 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,zzz, 10:46 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,travelingbetty, 11:27 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,esquire, 11:29 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,wendyp, 11:42 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,blacknwhitedog, 11:50 AM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,Brownroach, 12:18 PM, 10-22-03
  • Trish,oddout, 12:32 PM, 10-22-03
  • Change to Trish (cancel Shawn),Brownroach, 07:22 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,Chez, 12:47 PM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,URang, 01:09 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,jkokoj, 01:20 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,pancho, 01:24 PM, 10-22-03
• SHAWN,tinysand, 01:37 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,katethegreat, 01:51 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,ShowMeTheWinner, 01:55 PM, 10-22-03
• Vote Tally #1,dabo, 03:46 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,Bebo, 04:20 PM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,Devious Weasel, 04:41 PM, 10-22-03
  • Vote Change - Trish,Devious Weasel, 11:33 AM, 10-23-03
• Trish,VerucaSalt, 05:02 PM, 10-22-03
• Trish,forehead, 05:13 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn...,smrtNsassybnkr, 05:16 PM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,Goooey_Alley, 05:40 PM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,survivorscott, 06:04 PM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,rnabring, 06:28 PM, 10-22-03
• Trish,LeftPinky, 06:55 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,I_Got_Nutn, 07:08 PM, 10-22-03
• Ryan O.,mistofleas, 07:25 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,LookeeLoo, 08:53 PM, 10-22-03
• Ryan O,bergdogg, 08:56 PM, 10-22-03
• Trish,IslandFever, 09:24 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,tribalwatcher, 09:41 PM, 10-22-03
• Trish,texcanldy, 10:03 PM, 10-22-03
• Rupert,Laurieish, 10:23 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,Mon Cherie, 10:36 PM, 10-22-03
• Christa,raven, 10:59 PM, 10-22-03
• Jon,whoami, 11:25 PM, 10-22-03
• Trish,bobstew617, 11:50 PM, 10-22-03
• Shawn,sleeeve, 01:09 AM, 10-23-03
• Trish,NTK, 01:09 AM, 10-23-03
• Shawn,anotherkim, 01:19 AM, 10-23-03
  • Trish,SmilinNSide, 02:18 AM, 10-23-03
• Trish Dunn-duh-dunn-dunn.....done!,curveball, 05:32 AM, 10-23-03
• Trish,Breezy, 08:49 AM, 10-23-03
• Rupert,scante60a, 09:03 AM, 10-23-03
• Trish,queencityfan, 09:11 AM, 10-23-03
• Shawn,LozengeofLove, 10:05 AM, 10-23-03
• SHAWN,wildchickenhunter, 10:40 AM, 10-23-03
• Shawn,DoodleBug, 11:49 AM, 10-23-03
• Shawn,lizzmac, 12:18 PM, 10-23-03
• shawn,dabo, 12:27 PM, 10-23-03
• Jon (alt Trish),Swami, 12:42 PM, 10-23-03
• Trish,volsfan, 01:25 PM, 10-23-03
• SHAWN,SurvivorBlows, 02:05 PM, 10-23-03
• Shawn,Rain Crow, 02:07 PM, 10-23-03
• Trish,okaloosajohn, 02:34 PM, 10-23-03
• Trish,cnsrol, 02:37 PM, 10-23-03
• Trish,FesterFan1, 02:39 PM, 10-23-03
  • Trish,anninvt2002, 04:18 PM, 10-23-03
• Shawn.,MDSkinner, 03:50 PM, 10-23-03
• Trish,Loree, 03:57 PM, 10-23-03
• RE: Rupert,Steen, 05:00 PM, 10-23-03
• Trish,zorrosurvives, 05:23 PM, 10-23-03
• Trish,memacmur, 06:06 PM, 10-23-03
• Trish,lroy, 06:28 PM, 10-23-03
• Vote Tally #2,lroy, 06:55 PM, 10-23-03
• Shawn,moonbaby, 07:38 PM, 10-23-03

She has like, the thickest accent ever. She speaks like she's Forrest Gump's partner in the shrimp industry. (And BebeKid says she's safe, so who am I to argue?)

He's the obvious boot if Drake goes once again to TC, and I think they will.

Alternate if Morgan goes: Rhyno

I think Moron will lose and Deada is gone.

Yay, Number 3!

Explained here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4238.shtml#16

and here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/4248.shtml#18

-P

Jon tells the big lie this week. He get's discovered and booted. Ruperts a red herring. Backup: Ryan O.

Based on new evidence.

RC: Morgan
IC: Morgan
Boot: Shawn (back to NY sucka!)

sorry for bein the moron who broke the rulez last time but lets all say bye to Trish the dish

I almost did something stupid and picked the right boot this week good thing I read tdt or my streak would have been broken

Here we go again!

I've narrowed it down in my mind to Shawn or Rupert. Rupert's been trying to get rid of Shawn since Day 2, so why can't he? I think the strong alliance may be between Trish and Jon, so Shawn may get to come along for the ride. Michelle even said Rupert didn't have much pull into who was going to get voted out.

Shawn is made the target. Jon doesn't want him to go.

Sandra says if Shawn isn't careful, he'll be the one packing his bags...meaning there is already someone in mind to get booted....get rid of Rupert before he jumps fences to Morgan at the merge...

Some type of betrayal happens and Rupert takes the fall....

Alternate: Shawn

Ok, I'm going to be the first person to make the oddest boot pick yet, but Krautboy got me to start thinking on the betrayal and the title for next week "What the..."

Its getting pretty obvious that more than one player come back into the game. How can this happen with the same number of days. Because, I'm going back to my original theory that when there is a tie vote, the bootees get to compete to come back into the game, and all the players that are part of the tie get booted.

With the betrayal, possibly the big lie comes about regarding voting, and the regret is we lose 3 people in one episode.

Here's how it could play out. Morgan wins reward. Ryan O is their number 2 man and goes to raid Drake. He confesses that Morgan would have never won challenges without the help of Rupert. Trish starts to plan against Rupert, but its uncertain if Shawn is odd man out or Rupert, so the backbiting begins...

Rupert and Christa seem inseparable.

Jon and Shawn are the alliance of two.

Trish is the leader, and Sandra the follower.

Rupert has no reason to believe he is a target so him and Christa vote Shawn.

Trish is serious about voting off Rupert and her and Sandra vote Rupert

Shawn and Jon think they have Rupert and Christa on their side and vote Trish.

2-2-2

We lose 3 players in one tribal council.

The booted tribe gets the incoming ghost members. The two ghost players (probably to include Lillian) come back into the game as Drakes. We have a traditional merge...both tribes at 5-5 and we have another 2 bootee scenario again, possibly how Osten ends up out of the game and back in. Drakes left plus Lillian vote Osten; Morgans vote the strongest Drake, and we have another opportunity for a player to win way back into game.

Call me crazy, but that's where I'm going. We'll see if its genius or idiocy tomorrow

Going for the obvious here.
RC DRAKE
IC MORGAN
booted: Shawn

Trish, the hidden leader, has said several times that Rupert was gaining too much power within both Drake and Morgan. Pre-merge would be the perfect time to oust the strongest player.

Alt: Shawn

'Cuz he's too dicey to trust come merge time. Though I think they will hesitate because of the strongman competition, Drake is confident of a merge, prompting the "What the..?" for E7

Leave my Rupie alone : )

JJ

Shawn is the last of the outsiders. Burton and Michelle are gone, so Shawn is next in line.

Trish is currently in control of the Drake majority and she didn't buy Shawn's story after the TC when he tried to explain away his relationship with Burton. She doesn't believe him or trust him.

Shawn is the only remaining Drake that Michelle did not mention as part of Trish's alliance. She did say that he was the other vulnerable target on the Drake tribe...

From Survivor Insider:

Michelle the day after…

“ One of the things I could have done to save myself the night I was voted out is talk to Trish about it --kind of plead my case to her of why I should stay and Shawn should go, but I didn't do that.”

“I mean I think the people who are under her working for her are people like Jon and Christa and Rupert and Sandra.”

Michelle obviously thought the boot decision was between her and Shawn. Shawn is also not mentioned as one of those “working for her”. Shawn is not part of the core alliance.

Shawn will approach Rupert to try and save himself, and may try to turn the tribe against Rupert in a last ditch effort, but if he were actually successful it wouldn't be plastered all over the promos for this week...

And, is it the ultimate act of betrayal?
Trish: (off-camera) Rupert has a hell of a lot of power right now.
Rupert: (off-camera) I can't believe this.
Sandra: Oh man, this is crazy.

Thursday on CBS, it's a night of Survivor showdowns. The ultimate physical challenge leads to a back-breaking stand-off.
And can Rupert overcome a brazen act of betrayal?

Thursday on CBS: Survivor Pearl Islands just keeps getting better.
On a night of show-offs and showdowns, a back-breaking challenge leads to a stand-off.
And is Rupert's own tribe turning on him?

"Strategies Revealed do not Succeed", and Rupert probably overcomes the act of betrayal to remain Everyone's Hero, while Shawn becomes the villan, as his desperate plan fails, and he is voted out.

MB knows that his audience wants to see Rupert succeed. No one will really be surprised, because Sandra warns us in the promos that Shawn is in trouble, but like a "feel good movie" with a predictable ending, everyone will still be happy when Rupert emerges victorious, and good triumphs over evil.

Krautboy

LAST EDITED ON 10-22-03 AT 05:15 PM (EST)

VolvoCowboy's post about the MR411 spoiler has me rethinking my vote...
http://pub207.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessage?topicID=16579.topic

The editing of the promos does seem awkward for a Shawn boot...why show Sandra's "if he doesn't get a clue..." comment if Shawn ends up going. A better explanation would be a double misdirection...both Rupert and Shawn are safe.

As Michelle pointed out, Trish appeared to be in charge and have all the power. It would take someone in power, or who thinks their in power to consider trying to vote off Rupert. Trish is the only person in that position.

The other thing we always seem to forget is that the Insider clips are selected and edited just like the show...while we feel like it's "insider information" we only see what MB wants us to see...this week it was Shawn in trouble as the next boot.

The promo of Sandra saying "this is crazy", could very well be in response to Trish explaining the plan to oust Rupert, she most likely does not go along with it.

We see Shawn and Rupert shaking hands, not a part of the Ultimate Betrayal, but rather in defense against it.

Looks like Rupert and Shawn cut a deal against Trishes brazen act of betrayal.

From the heavy misdirection in the promos we know Rupert will overcome the betrayal, but Trish rather than Shawn may be the one to have it backfire.

MB has edited the last couple weeks to give us glimpses of Trish's distrust of Rupert, apparently for the purpose of building up to this week's surprise boot.

Trish was also reported to come back tan and full of bug bites, but there was no report of weight loss. I still think that Lillian is the older woman rather than Trish, but maybe they both come back into the game or maybe Trish just leaves the game for good.

Trish has also had a steady increase in face time and confessionals the last few weeks.

Could Trish be the Drake who visits Morgan and makes a stunning confession...when the Morgan ask about their buddy Rupert she may respond, we're planning to vote him out this week...the Morgans are stunned, but in the end Rupert triumphs and Trish goes home.

Trish being voted this week is not far fetched at all...it actually makes good sense...

Krautboy

Same reasons I gave when I voted for him last week!

Shawn the last of the 3-some. Means bases are loaded and Jon will be gone next. LOL
Alt: Morgan- Ostonhrc2u

Why I think the masterful manipulator Rupert wants rid of Jon. Jon is actually more of a threat than Shawn at this point. Shawn can and will be eliminated a bit later.

This is based on spoiler downgrade of Trish by Snewser and spoiler upgrade of Jon by Snewser

...it's time for you to go!

Everybody change your votes! I'm voting for Shawn!

I've given plenty of reasoning elsewhere. I don't feel like copying.

RC: Drake
IC: Morgan
Boot: Shawn
Alt: Rupert

RC: Drake
Jon loots Morgan and says something about Andrew
IC: Drake

Next week: Trish and Osten, with Lil reentering

Just trying to be difficult.

RC: Drake wins - Only Jon is capable of lying and being an a$$ when he goes to loot Morgan. Also, Drake is the one which needs 're-energizing'.
IC: Morgan - I'd like to convince myslef Ryan's motion in the IC pics was one of triumph.
Boot: Jon - I simply just want him out, out, out!!!
Alternate: Shawn - the only outsider left at drake.

LAST EDITED ON 10-22-03 AT 01:19 AM (EST)

Trish is calling the shots at Drake and believes the merge is coming soon.

Assuming Drake goes to TC this week, she has to decide which of the 5 other Drakes will stay loyal to the Alliance she controls.

Christa & Sandra are safe, they will vote however Trish tells them.

Jon's safe because if Trish votes him out, there's ZERO reason for Shawn to stay in the alliance - he would jump to Morgan 1st chance he gets. It's better to keep Jon around, so that Shawn will have reason to hope he's in a final 3 or 4 alliance, and stay loyal to Drake.

So Trish has to decide between Shawn and Rupert.

Trish could give Shawn the Ax, he started out in the wrong alliance, but now that he's dependant on Jon, he's not going anywhere. Shawn's staying with Drake as long as he has reason to believe his best chance lays with Jon & Drake.

Trish could give Rupert the Ax. It's true he's been part of the key alliance from the start, BUT he's also acting more as a free agent than anyone else. He's forging an alliance/friendships with important Morgan members. Rupert's time on SURVIVOR has been more about having fun, making friends, and playing pirate than playing a game of elimination with $1,000,000 on the line.

Trish had penciled in Shawns name early, but Rupert is the less dependable Drake. And when it comes to a merge of 5-5, she's got to be able to depend on Drake sticking with Drake. Rupert's too much of a wild card. Trish is a student of the game. I think Rupert has had too much rope and now he's hung himself.

things sure don't look good for Rupert, and I don't think it's just misdirection

Neither Michelle nor Burton appeared to have anything bad to say about Jon after being booted, which leads me to believe that they had lots of opportunity to bond at LL. They were luke-warm about Shawn, and Burton seemed to be downright cold about Christa.

Unfortunately, I think that "I told you so" speech in TC last week may be the last straw for poor Rupert.

The only challenges Rupert has lost were those which he couldn't control -- the one they threw and the juicer bar. His domination in all other challenges makes him an awfully powerful opponent when it comes to individual immunity. They are getting close to the expected merge, and people must be considering that he might be unstoppable once II comes into play.

His bonding with Morgan was a good idea for his own strategy, but the openly public displays of affection when Andrew paid a visit were not only unnecessary but may have put a big target on his back.

I believe Shawn or Jon will attempt to use the above to turn the others against Rupert.

What I believe may save him at least for one more week is the simple fact that they lose yet another challenge, if not both challenges this week. Trish, or whoever is calling the shots at Drake, may fear they need Rupert until merge to keep Drake from totally bottoming out. Similarly, they need Shawn's strength if they fear losing more challenges before merge. And, they must be considering the possibility that merge doesn't happen when we usually expect it.

This leaves us with Jon and Christa as possible choices -- assuming Drake loses the IC. I am going to work under the assumption that Jon's considered too weak and Drake chooses Christa as their third workhorse for the IC. This may actually put a target on Jon's back, because his tribemates will recognize that he contributes nothing more to the challenges than Christa or even Sandra (who, I have noticed, sits out every challenge she can and lost the IC for them last week -- what use is she?). Given his behaviour, the animosity that Jeff shows toward him (that affects the tribe as a whole, which we saw in RC last week), his arguments with multiple tribemates and possibly his attempts to oust Rupert, his story may be coming to an abrupt THE END this week.

Jon is my choice to be booted this week with Rupert as runner-up.

He's the logical choice...

...but I wouldn't mind seeing that m*****f***** Jon go, either.

Heh-heh...my fill-in tried to give me "Shawna" as I typed the subject

Overanalyzed last week and missed the obvious boot, so will go with the obvious boot this time (and watch this suddenly turn into EPMB misdirection week).

eye candy that sadly leaves this week

Drake eats well after winning reward (believe six steaks for six people). Morgan wins IC based on VidCaps of Ryan O. Shawn still the outsider from his early pretty people alliance is booted.

Simple logic, probably wrong, but it worked last week.

Tricia is my back-up.

Let the big lie begin

EJ

LAST EDITED ON 10-22-03 AT 09:54 AM (EST)

unless it isn't

alt. Andrew. Weight spoilers suggest he didn't lose too much and I think that Ti/Osten/Darrah have an alliance going and Andrew is expendable. Leaders don't last long in survivor.

I've found myself cheering for Trish since day1.

The only way to do this would seem to be for her to be ousted now (victim of the betrayal?) and come back when the ghost tribe competes in Ep. 7.

This would mean that perhaps she says the big lie which is she will stay loyal to Drake but in fact jumps ship and aligns herself with Morgan and the Pagonging begins.

-aethelstan

RC: Drake
IC: Morgan
Boot: Shawn

I confess, I over-analyzed last week and picked Christa, when, in fact, Michelle was the obvious boot. So I'm going with Shawn, the third and final member of what Brownroach called "the beautiful people" team.

Here's hoping that, in honor of all the people in the world who were tormented in junior high by the likes of Shawn, Michelle, and Burton, that Shawn enjoys his stay in Loser Lodge. (I just hope he and Burton aren't too mean to "Skinny Ryan"!!!!!!)

RC-Drake (Only because I can't see Morgan winning this many challenges in a row. I mean, c'mon...they're Morgan.)

IC-Morgan (Based on vidcaps and potential end game spoilers)

Boot: Shawn (I've got to go with Shawn. He just seems the logical choice. Too many times I try and outguess MB rather than sticking with simple logic and he seems like the next Drakee to bolt.)

Ok, I guess Shawn is more likely, but thanks to Snewser I bet a co-worker that Rupert doesn't make the jury, and I'm just going to keep on picking him.

RC: Drake
IC: Morgan

Boot: Occum's razor saya Shawn (please don't let it be Rupert!!!)

I see that Sherps continues to mention me in his posts. I must be his favorite!

Despite my "Spoiling Queen of the Universe" title, I must rely on the analytical skills of Krautboy et al to help me make my choice this week.

Bebe/S.Q.O.T.U.

Last week I was leaning toward Michelle, but everyone was insisting Christa so I waited for Snewser (who backed my instinct as we know). This week my instinct says Shawn and everyone else also seems to say it will be Shawn, so I will take a chance and vote before Snewser comes out. Because so many people ignored the obvious last week and got burned, this week we are all going for the obvious. It will be a big laugh on us if Christa goes this week.

The misdirection is too heavy to make this week a Rupert boot. Shawn is on the outside looking in and they won't think that they need his strength in challenges too much longer.

Everyone thinks the merger is coming. What you need most right after the merger is a strong alliance. ShiAnn taught us about that. You can't have anyone defecting to the other side. Who would Drake think is most likely to jump to the other side. That has to be Shawn. Everyone else seems to be part of the alliance. If I was Drake, Shawn is the one I would least with me after the merger. Therefore, he goes

HE is the last of the outsiders adn they other were not happy with him talking bad about Burton.

Part of the pretty people posse- now it's time to go!
(thanks Krautboy)

The first preview screamed "Shawn!", the later ones screamed "Rupert!" I don't believe both candidates are misdirection.

When there's an easy agenda to follow, an allied group will almost always follow it rather than upset the apple cart. I think that will happen this week.

Now, if I could just decide on the RC winner...

I am going out on a limb and saying Trish. Sooner or later the rest of Drake are going to get sick of her "calling the shots". Why not now?

Shawn seemed like the perfect boot this morning, and then this surfaced to get me worried:

Burton thinks Shawn was delusional and jealous. He said that Shawn couldn't put a strategy together and the tribe knew it and that's why they kept him around. Even Rupert said that they would keep Shawn around because he would just do what everyone told him to do.

Sounds awfully sour of Burton, if Shawn is the next arrival at LL. But I still couldn't get my mind around Rupert going this week.

The missing-link spoiler for Trish a) seems credible and b) solves the dilemma. She pulls a Deena to get rid of Rupert; it goes boom in her face. Why not? -- it fits with the previews as well as anything else.

Burton even gave us a hint, sort of: Rupert said that they would keep Shawn around because he would just do what everyone told him to do...including vote for Trish this week

This is the fourth time I've changed my vote this season.

It's the simplest assumption, and I am going with it.

Drake will win RC – Jon goes to pillage and takes pot (blaming on R)
Jon returns to Drake and tells all that Rupert did major back stabbing when he was there. (which is a lie)
Shawn consoles Rupert (handshake clip) stating “don’t worry, Jon’s an ass and we won’t listen to him”
....but they do and they say Bye Bye to Blackbeard.
Rupert leaves and takes Balboa with him….”Me and My snake”

Obvious boot, maybe too obvious. Rupert is my second choice.

pancho

Shawn is the last of the alliance of Burton and Michelle and will be booted off as the outsider. Tinysand

Following game logic versus pure spoilers, which may be pointing toward Rupert, but I can't vote for his demise, no matter what! Rupert says Shawn was the first choice for boot by his group, so that's the game logic. My best spoiler "evidence" being Michelle's antagonism toward Rupert (so maybe he doesn't get to LL); AND, now that I think of it, the Jon and Shawn spoiler (last two to leave - something to that effect), for what that's worth.

Don't see how he can escape this one.

Alt: Rupert

LAST EDITED ON 10-23-03 AT 09:41 AM (EST)

This is post #50 compiling 49 votes and no previous tallies:

Shawn: 31
Rupert: 8
Jon: 5
Trish: 2
Darrah: 2
Andrew: 1
all others UTR.

edited to correct for form.

Last week I overanalyzed, and veered away from what was the obvious choice to the non-spoiling viewers. I'll stick with them this week.

Backup: Jon

Just cause.

Name Change - Devious Lemming

LAST EDITED ON 10-23-03 AT 07:14 AM (EST)

I'm playing a game

ETA: forehead, you know I always love playing with you

Disclaimer: Please note my caveat: I am playing a game. This vote, I have no problem admitting is SOLELY a game to see if this supposed glitch pans out. I am not going to try and build an argument for her b/c I'm playing along. And Snewser sudden downgrade which I just noted I hardly think he is doing because of this; last week should have shown the Christa voters that

ChillOne in his absence this season is still prevalent I see

I want to play the same game VerucaSalt is playing

forehead

Actually, anyone except Rupert would be fine with me.

I always end up choosing the wrong one!

Too much mis direction from CBS
Come in a stranger,leave a little stranger

I've been wrong every week. So, here goes another try.

Combined with Krautboy's reasoning, snewsers downgrading of Trish and upgrading of Jon and the fact that she's had some negative things to say lately, makes me believe she's gone!

..

I'm doing this for several reasons but none of them are good, nor do any of them have anything to do with spoilers, speculations, snewser or the thought provoking an fabulous analysis that's been going on this week.

I'll admit it. A pelican came to me in a dream last night. It said "vote for Ryan O and we'll never torture you again."

What can I say?

mistofleas --will seek therapy soon

RC = Drake
IC = ?
If Morons go to TC, then Darrah

With the merge coming up, and the the focus on Drake now, it would seem obvious for Drake to win immunity and for Morgan to go to TC. Darrah and Tijuana convince Osten and Andrew that Ryan O is the most dangerous post merge player, so they get him out of there. Food won't be that important with the merge coming up and Rupert there to feed you, right.

The pendulum seems to be swinging her way. I'll go along. Sounds plausible to me. I don't think Shawn goes. Wezzie said Shawn and Jon were the last 2 to leave. That could be true. And Rupert would make more sense as an Ep. 7 bootee.

I came here to vote for Shawn because I figured he's the most likely to go on Drake. I think they merge even and somehow the Morgan's get the upper hand?? I haven't read everybody else's reasons but it looks like I'm jumping on the bandwagon.

RC--Drake
IC--Morgan
Boot--Trish

I am so torn!

RC: Drake (or maybe morgan) and Jon loots
IC: Morgan

I think Sandra may be the swing vote which says it isn't Jon. Trish, Christa, Rupert? I am just picking one.

I may regret this vote. I still have a gut feeling that Trish doesn't go yet.

Drake wins RC but not IC
Trish, Sandra, & Christa vote against Shawn
Shawn and Jon convince Rupert to vote with them against Christa
Tie....Christa loses tiebreaker (previous votes 2-1)

It has to be Jon. He has to go.

WHOAMI
All we have to do is use our heads and we can figure this out

LAST EDITED ON 10-22-03 AT 11:51 PM (EST)

The logic I've seen concerning her attempt to betray Rupert and it's consequences makes sense. It almost seems that when CBS gives the football preview, they WANT viewers to THINK Rupert's in trouble. Hope this actually works out that way...

My opinion is that Snewser enjoys messing with us. This is confirmed by his manuverings in the past two weeks with Burton and Michelle's boots.

As such, I'm going back to the basics... preview evidence suggests (by way of the classic misdirection theory -- that everything they show is the opposite of what will happen) that Drake will be travelling to TC for a third time this episode. This seems to be confirmed by the fact that the most interesting story out of the Morgan camp will be... the attack of a pelican. The last time that we had a story about an animal attacking was during S5 when the Chuay Gahn tribe won for several weeks in a row, and suddenly Magilla the monkey became the star of the show.

So... if we make the assumption that a member of Drake will be voted out, then let's look at the situation logically... Three weeks ago, we were told that there was an alliance between Burton, Michelle, and Shawn. We also learned that this alliance couldn't count... 3 is not greater than 5, so Burton bit the bullet.

In the past episode, the editing focussed on Shawn, implying that he had abandoned his alliance (ummm... when your alliance gets voted out, that's not called "abandoning"... it's called "losing the game"). Ultimately, the tribe chose to eliminate Michelle.

So... we as an audience are conveniently supposed to forget that Shawn was a member of a losing alliance and assume that he's safe? I don't think so!... Shawn is toast.

As an alternate pick, I'll go with Rupert. There's something fishy with odd numbered Survivor series. In S1, no one knew how to play the game or how a merge would affect the game. In S3, Jeff threatened to delay the merge, causing the newly switched-up tribes to rethink their strategy. In S5, the tribe merge actually WAS delayed. We're now up to S7, and rumors are circulating of a "ghost tribe" rejoining the game, which would seem to indicate that the merge will once again be in jeopardy... but do the Survivors realize this??? NO!

So what's the moral of this story? The Survivors assume that this is the final 3-day period where they will have to compete as tribes. They expect to merge. Thus, Rupert, who has now proven himself to be invaluable in the challenges and is perhaps the greatest Survivor to ever play the game *could* go on an immunity run and win the game. So if you're in the Drake tribe, and you happen to lose what you believe to be your last team challenge, and there is a big bearded guy on your tribe who has seemingly refused to join any alliances choosing to instead support the tribe as a whole, and you believe that this might be your last chance to eliminate him before he wins the game, what would you do? I'd vote for Rupert, too... but I'm still picking Shawn in this vote thread.

I dunno. Ghost tribes, returnees, and misdirection cause indecision big time.

I refuse to write Ruppie's name on the card.

Tried to vote for Shawn this morning and just didn't belive it.

Jon would be my choice, but he doesn't seem to be theirs.

Trish losing in a power move makes sense to me. Even if she is upgraded this afternoon, I'll stick with it.

just can't see how Trish could lose all her support so quickly. Rupert and Sandra are strong allies.