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"True Allainces???"
Posted by mindella29 on 10-18-03 at 11:04 PM
Ive been lurking on this site for years. Sometimes a thought keeps coming back to me. Heres my theory. The hidden alliance in my opinion is Trish & JON, and than the rest are expendable in this order after Sean? Christa, Rupert, than Sandra. I think Trish is the ringleader based on quite a few pieces of info from past few players kicked off. I not sure Trish will win but do see her in the top three. When do you ever see her. Lately a bit more, but she is so UTR. She will get rid of Rupert before the individual immunities since he is so strong. I see him going right before merge, or right before the jury. Its just a gut feeling!! He is a threat in many ways.
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Messages in this discussion
"RE: True Allainces???"
Posted by mavsfan on 10-18-03 at 11:16 PM
I too think the true leader of the tribe is either Trish or Christa.

It's clearly not Shawn. He's only trying to stay off the radar so as not to join Burton any time soon.

It's not Rupert. He couldn't save Michelle, he had to take the queston to a higher authority who apparently said no.

I really not Jon. He was just the swing vote that allowed a 5-3 or better boot instead of a 4-4 tie.

I don't believe It's Sandra or it would have been Jon leaving before Michelle.

Christa's the one that seems to have had the Meth involevement. God help them If she's in charge.

That leaves Trish.

Who's her final 4/final 3/final 2 alignment? I haven't figured that out yet.

"RE: True Allainces???"
Posted by ginger on 10-21-03 at 01:26 PM
I think it's Christa. When/if she goes, Trish takes over.


"RE: True Allainces???"
Posted by Nash on 10-19-03 at 00:34 AM
I tend to agree with analysis on Trish. She has not been happy with certain things. She is the puppetmaster not Jon and she will orchestrate Jon staying as long as possible. After all is he really a threat for the million? I agree with Shawn, Sandra and Christa being on the chopping block. I'm thinking Rupert makes merge because of the Balboa spoiler. If he's successful at Challenges he might stay longer than everyone seems to think. At merge, he will have alliance with in my view, Darrah, Ryan O (if he's still around) Andrew, Tijuana and my guess Sandra and Christa and Shawn (if he's still around) Trish may want Jon to stay but more will want Jon to go and don't discount Shawn as one who would screw jon as easily as he screwed Burton.
"RE: True Allainces???"
Posted by benjapol on 10-19-03 at 01:37 AM
I don't think there are any true alliances. Since Brian's win in Thailand, everyone is allied with anyone and willing to jump ship and just go with the majority if the allliance is on the chopping block. You see it from last season. No one is really in control of this game. No one can. The best way to play the game now that everyone has seen all the strategies from past seasons is to just go with the flow. Darrah will be the new Vecepia and take it all.
"RE: True Allainces???"
Posted by Loree on 10-19-03 at 11:07 AM
I do think Trish is our UTR leader of Drake. I think MB wants to hide this. We see very little of her. But people seem to go to her similar to how they ran to Brian in Thailand. Michelle was quite open about this opinion. Even stating that some of the others wanted to think they were running the show but Trish really was and just letting them think it. And Trish keeps making opinions on Rupert and doubting him. I think he will be a target and it will be Trish who subtlely starts the focus on booting him.
"RE: True Allainces???"
Posted by SnowBunny on 10-19-03 at 11:16 AM
I agree that Trish appears to be the one pulling the strings, and the higher source Rupert had to consult re: Michelle v Shawn. After hearing her state that Rupert has a lot of power at this point in the game (in the previews for next episode), my gut tells me that she may decide it's his turn to go. Whether that works out in her favor, I am not sure ... but I think she is the mastermind behind the betrayal.
"The Chain Rule (Drake)"
Posted by Jims02 on 10-19-03 at 03:57 PM
I think we have another chain strategy on Drake.

The core alliance: Christa/Sandra/Trish

Based on Michelle's interview, she felt that Trish was the real puppetmaster, a Tina-like player. She was also negative about Sandra, saying that she'll vote just to keep herself alive. Christa's probably Second Banana.

The Male links: (no wonder it's rumored the men do lousy this year!)

Rupert/Jon

and then we have the Jon/Shawn alliance.

First of all, I really don't foresee C/S/T breaking up any time soon. Unless the Big Lie shakes things up, but I don't see any indication of that (maybe Jon vs Shawn?) yet. I'm guessing that Christa would be targeted again if there was a great divide (Boys vs Girls).

As of now, though, I don't see a tie happening yet (or a Christa boot for that matter), for 4 reasons:

1. CBS would have given us an "exciting Tribal Council" preview IMO.
2. Previews indicate an argument between Shawn and Jon. I'm guessing Shawn's just trying to give C/S/T a reason to get rid of Jon, which they could.
3. The "betrayal" of Rupert with Shawn. This, at first glance, may line up with the Shawn/Jon riff.
4. Christa's editing really hasn't been that negative. From what I hear from interviews, Christa had been pretty catty at times, and if she was going, I think we'd see some more negative editing.

Right now, I'm looking at either a Shawn or Jon boot. Maybe even a Rupert boot, if the "betrayal" happens.

I have this weird feeling that Jon is going to backstab Rupert. Either directly (Hey Trish, let's get rid of Rupert now!) or indirectly (like Michelle was singled out by Jon/Shawn)

50% Shawn
30% Jon
20% Rupert (and rising)


A 2003 PhoenixMons creation

"RE: The Chain Rule (Drake)"
Posted by anotherkim on 10-19-03 at 05:22 PM

something else on the betrayal....in the clip, it's Trish's voice that is saying Rupert has a hell of a lot of power right now. If she's really the puppetmaster, then I can see where she'd want to dump him soon. He's an obvious threat to her physically and with Morgan at the merge. She needs him gone.

--girl power

"RE: The Chain Rule (Drake)"
Posted by Round Robin on 10-19-03 at 10:00 PM
It's no surprise that there is so much talk of Rupert getting the ax. Even if you pay no attention whatsoever to all the spoilers and chats and Early Show interviews and the like, you don't have to have any working brain cells to know Rupert is probably going. Nobody with an ounce of sense would want to face him in the final 2, because there ain't a soul down there who can beat him in front of the jury, no matter who's on it. Also, Rupert is an obvious IC threat in both physical and mental challenges, so if they don't want to risk facing him in the final 2, they had better boot him at the first opportunity. I say the only way he survives much past the merge is if he goes on an extended IC run.
"RE: The Chain Rule (Drake)"
Posted by Jims02 on 10-19-03 at 11:41 PM
I dunno about that.

The only reason that I worry about Rupert is because of the "betrayal" preview. That Jon is sneaky enough to single out Rupert like he did Michelle.

Right now, I'm against the idea, as it's the most farfetched theory right now. I see a Michelle repeat this week, and Shawn goes 5-1.


That's Jimsy to you

"RE: The Chain Rule (Drake)"
Posted by Round Robin on 10-20-03 at 08:10 PM
That's what it looks like according to the previews, but I hope not. Not only do I think Jon is the most obnoxious survivor ever, but he's showing all the signs of developing into a backstabbing little weasel. I wish they would get rid of him instead.
"RE: The Chain Rule (Drake)"
Posted by pdragonfly on 10-20-03 at 11:01 PM
"So I talked to Rupert and Jon instead, who you know, seemed to know how I kind of felt. I would never have talked to Christa about it because she’s nasty -- she’s not a fun person to talk to begin with. I just don’t like the idea of Trish being the leader of everything. She’s kind of the undercover leader. No one knows she’s the one behind it, but she is."

Looks like Michelle thinks Trish is running things too. This is from the Yahoo confessional.

"Four Trish"
Posted by frisky on 10-20-03 at 11:29 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-20-03 AT 11:31 PM (EST)

EDITED to say title should be "Four PLUS Trish" ... trying to get used to this funky new keyboard.

Two things I noticed in the last episode:

1. After Roop returned to Drake, there was the reunion with all of Drake. Then, there was a quick shot of a rather sentimental "we missed you" huddle among what I think is the "core four" Rupert, Sandra, Jon and Christa.

(The Jon and Sandra conflict is all, IMO, classic misdirection.)

2. In Rupert's confessional re the possibility of voting for Shawn, he suggested that this is long overdue based on some original plan. He said something like "he was our first choice on day 2, and now we're on day 12 and he's still here." Two boots later, Shawn's still there.

Who orchestrated those first two boots? Well, the members of the core four. Trish, I think, is an outsider, a floater who votes the way the wind blows.

Don't forget that the Trish-as-leader theory was posed by Michelle, someone who was quite disconnected from the others in the tribe and left out of discussions. She commented that the others probably don't know that Trish is leading them on, indicating that she didn't discuss this with any of them. It's just the theory of someone who really didn't get to know anyone except Burton/Shawn. I don't think we should take Michelle's word as gospel.

"RE: Four Trish"
Posted by VerucaSalt on 10-21-03 at 07:38 AM
The whole Trish leader thing has really developed because of Michelle's comments but if I may just stir the pot a bit, Michelle is one big contradiction.

One of the things I could have done to save myself the night I was voted out is talk to Trish about it --kind of plead my case to her of why I should stay and Shawn should go, but I didn't do that

Q: Do you think Rupert tried hard to save your butt? What happened?
Michelle: Rupert couldn't save my butt. He wasn't the one making the decisions, but I do appreciate his effort, and along with the other people that I talked to that afternoon including Sandra, Jon, and Trish.

So she talked to Trish but she didn't talk to Trish. Trish is the big leader everyone is following yet Trish says that Michelle didn't even talk to her until the last days out there yet Michelle says they had a bond. I can go on and on with her contradictions about what she says about one person and another it is ridiculous.

She is a bitter girl who ostracized herself and thought she was playing smart by being with the two strong guys and she got screwed. Whether Trish is this leader remains to be seen; I am more inclined to believe that Trish is viewed as a mother figure like Rupert is a father figure. When you are stuck in these conditions away from your normal sociological environment you tend to shape people in such a way to feel a comfort which is why Jon is probably viewed as a harmless but annoying brother, Rupert/Trish as parental, authority figures etc. Naturally younger people will perhaps go to Trish or Rupert and seek counsel or opinion. I think it is dangerous to assume that just because someone is viewed as a subsitute parental figure THEY are calling all the shots. Does this mean that this type of view of them won't allow them to progress further in the game. No, of course they can but that DOESN'T necessarily mean they are pulling everyone's string either.

"good points"
Posted by anotherkim on 10-21-03 at 09:42 AM

I just keep harping back to Tina and how invisible she was back in the beginning of Australia and Trish reminds me of her.

Drake may have more of a shared power structure than Michelle leads us to believe, but I would still think it's shared between Trish and Sandra. Obviously Shawn isn't in power. I don't see it beig Christa or Rupert or Jon. That leaves Trish and/or Sandra to share a very matriarchal role.

"RE: True Allainces???"
Posted by wendyp on 10-21-03 at 11:14 AM
I agree that Trish may be the power as she would be willing to talk strategy. Remember her comment when she voted out Burton was "you are a IC threat and I can not have that down the road." She is thinking down the road.

The only thing that I think is flawed...is if she had the numbers in her alliance why have your team shrink before merge?!? Go to merge and then knock off your threat.

The other thing is if Trish is looking down the road, I think she would keep Rupert around longer. One he has strenght and can carry her ala Tina/Colby. Also now he knows the other team and can say I will help you vote off O/T but you need to keep Trish and myself until final 4 then it is all for themself.

"RE: True Alliances???"
Posted by Blow by Blow on 10-21-03 at 12:52 PM
Okay, so this isn't really about alliances, but bear with me. I think we all believe that Drake will lose IC again this week (idiots!). If they lose they'll go into merge tied with Morgan (assuming merge works as it has in the past).

Now, if I'm a smart player on Drake I'd want to be damn sure that the tribe could win a post-merge tie-breaker at the first TC. Two tribe members already have votes against them (Christa-2, Shawn-1). If I'm heading into a 5-5 merge, I wouldn't want to bring both of these people with me because it's then more likely they'll get picked off by Morgan. Drake may or may not know who has votes against them at Morgan (Osten-2, Darrah-1), but that's not relevant. Drake is merely trying to improve their odds.

So the question is, between Christa and Shawn, who is more likely to win the first post-merge IC and thereby ensure that Morgan can be cut down to size? The apparently logical pick is Shawn based on strength alone (of course, the first IC will probably be an endurance test). So, if I were on Drake, and I thought I was smart, I'd boot Christa this week. Then head into the merge with the pressure on Shawn to win IC and give Drake the edge at TC.

Now, having said all that, here's what I think will actually happen: They boot Christa following my logic above. Shawn makes a valiant effort in post-merge IC thereby making it obvious that he's the only one in danger. Sadly, Shawn doesn't win. They head to TC, where Drake's only chance is to vote for Osten, but they're so stupid they think that either Andrew or Ryan O have been voted against in the past. They blow the vote, Morgan gets the size advantage, decimates Drake, you know the rest.

Or Drake boots Shawn, Christa winds up with 3 votes against her, then in post-merge TC the Morgan's figure out to vote for Christa and it doesn't matter who Drake votes for.

And another thing -- Michelle? Sour grapes? Loser? I loved Trish's comment, "I don't know what game she was playing, but it wasn't Survivor."

-P

"RE: True Alliances???"
Posted by Acawap on 10-21-03 at 02:22 PM
this is assuming previous votes would be the tie-breaker, and I don't think that's the case. Way back in the olden days of Survivor, they did that, but things are different now.

Every TC, there have been votes left over, which were not read to the contestants, so they wouldn't know if they had votes against them or not. Seems to me if they were going to use previous votes as a tie-breaker, they wouldn't end the reading of the votes prematurely, and say, "the rest of the votes don't matter".

Am I wrong? Crazy? Stupid? Or simply the most brilliant Survivor Spoiler in all the land???

I vote crazy.

"RE: True Alliances???"
Posted by Blow by Blow on 10-21-03 at 07:46 PM
That's what I get for not watching since Australia. I just thought they were keeping the votes secret to help mess up post-merge voting. Besides, don't they all know how everyone else voted, even if the votes aren't shown? (Not that it's relevant, because, as you point out, prior votes no longer count.)

Crazy? Everyone picks crazy. Who would prefer to be stupid? Reminds me of the old joke about the guy who gets a flat tire driving by the insane asylum. Long story short, he loses all the lug nuts and one of the resident lunatics tells him (through the fence), "Just take one from each of the other three wheels and then each wheel will have four apiece. That'll be enough to get you to a service station." The motorist says, "Wow, that's clever. What are you doing in an insane asylum?" The guy says, "I'm here for being crazy, not for being stupid." And while that's a funny joke, it has little to do with why anyone's in this game (hint: they're crazy and stupid).

-P