you don't take rob because in the end people might actually respect him for doing what he had to in order to play the game
cq,Exactly. Rob has played the game. Too may people on the show worry about playing nice and not going against their morals. The show is a game and I think Rob is opening up everyone's awareness tp this fact. Sure Jenna and Heidi hated Rob, but after they thought about their chances and realized that they wanted to stay on the show a little longer, they realized he wasn't such a bad partner after all.
If you read Markopolo's thread on the yahoo insider stuff, Jenna and Heidi were actually praising Rob for the player he is. I think he will get votes because he IS the best player!Matt and Rob were saying it would be poetic justice for the two of them to be in the finals... the Survivalist and the Survivor. Matt who knows how to survive but clueless about Survivor, and Rob who's never been camping (city boy) but a darn good Survivor player.
yeah i really think that people will sit back and respect how rob managed to have enough composure and self-control to *not* get personally attached and to always focus on the game and keep the prize in sight. that's the whole goal. it isn't to make friends. if it were, jenna should consider herself a great winner already and just quit. now *that* would show her honest and noble intentions and integrity. but nooooooo way. not jenna.ps i really wanted to scream when alex was sticking up for them saying they get a bad rap from the way the show portrays them and jenna doesn't have an agent so she's so great. KMA, alex. they're manipulative and selfish and you're thinking with your....again. sorry. i'll copy paste to bashers...
yep, i think its very possible eee, and had a slightly different version on the spoiler threadbasically Christy gone, then Butch. Then Rob betrays Matt and gets his wish of a threesome, and finally Heidi wins immunity and betrays Jenna to take Rob to the final 2. (i can't see Rob winning in this situation, since he's made it clear he'd want to be up against jenna)
that would fit CO more accurately as the F6-F2 instead of F4 (though rob and heidi COULD sort of fit), although we'd still have the gambling Matt/Jenna thing to explain away, unless THAT was an MB ploy.
I think you are pretty close to the target.CO's info comes to us 2nd or 3rd hand. The orignal source may very well have been a local staff member at looser lodge or even the boat driver that took the players away from TC. This original source sees players leave the game:
Christy
Butch
Heidi (or Jenna)
MattGiving us the intel CO (and we) interpret to be the final 4.
But CO's source is unfamilar with SURVIVOR and doesn't realize 2 players are still in the game, or maybe something was lost in the 2nd/3rd hand translation. Either way Leaving us a final 2 of:
Rob & Jenna (or Heidi)
MB learns of the CO spoiler and has a few CBS folks make some big wagers on a Matt/Jenna final 2.
When the news brakes that BoDog has stopped taking S6 wagers on a Matt/Jenna final 2 MB screws with the spoilers and protects his real final 2 Rob & Jenna (or Heidi).
Ahhhhhhhh I am so confused right now, nothing makes sense anymore. We just have to realize the fact that MB is a genius and he dooped all of us. The final episode is gonna probably be my favorite episode thus far of all 6 survivors! I hope next season is this good! Go Matt!
I am going to stick with CO a little longer, especially with the gambling spoiler. Remember, the gamblers bet on the F2 of the last two Survivors, and who woulda thunk Vee and Neleh. I'm going to look at the possibility that somehow Heidi and Christy got confused by Uncle Boat Driver. I'm thinking Rob goes next week when everyone realizes what a manipulating, lying SOB he is. That puts Heidi in the F4, and maybe the same Uncle Boat Driver who misdescribed the early boots somehow saw Heidi from a distance and thought it was the deaf girl. That leaves F3 of the 50-ish man and the F2 CO gave us, which I still think is confirmed by the gambling spoiler. So CO is not dead, and if Rob goes next week as I still expect, we're pretty much back to where we were, with CO scoring 75% on the F4 instead of the 100% a lot of us (including me) were assuming.I do think milkshaky is dead, though
>I think you are pretty close
>to the target.
>
>CO's info comes to us 2nd
>or 3rd hand. The
>orignal source may very well
>have been a local staff
>member at looser lodge or
>even the boat driver that
>took the players away from
>TC. This original source
>sees players leave the game:
>
>
>Christy
>Butch
>Heidi (or Jenna)
>Matt
>
>Giving us the intel CO (and
>we) interpret to be the
>final 4.
>
>But CO's source is unfamilar with
>SURVIVOR and doesn't realize 2
>players are still in the
>game, or maybe something was
>lost in the 2nd/3rd hand
>translation. Either way Leaving
>us a final 2 of:
>
>
>Rob & Jenna (or Heidi)
>
>MB learns of the CO spoiler
>and has a few CBS
>folks make some big wagers
>on a Matt/Jenna final 2.
>
>
>When the news brakes that BoDog
>has stopped taking S6 wagers
>on a Matt/Jenna final 2
>MB screws with the spoilers
>and protects his real final
>2 Rob & Jenna (or
>Heidi).I think you really have something there Mavsfan. I read somewhere that Chill One does not have a history of many posts, yet everyone seemed to have put a lot of stock in his spoilers. Although I hated to see Christy go, I was glad it went completely against Chill One.
Your take on it seems most plausible to me for a few reasons. Primarily, neither Heidi nor Rob have yet lost enough weight to support their 'after' Amazon photos. If you take the boot order as credible, it may be Christy, Butch, Jenna, Matt and leave Heidi and Rob as the final two.
Although neither twig nor stick is a beauty, Jenna would pass before Heidi sans makeup and hairdo.
IF Rob and Heidi are the final two, it will be a landslide for Rob. The jury understands this is a game and he has played well. Even though he has burnt many bridges, lately he has been very open about it. He's an honest liar! LOL
No matter which ho may be left, they'll only get two votes maximum.
Miss Scarlet
but I'm not ditching the ChillOne until someone explains how they had so much inside information that has already been proven trueI'll explain it to you: MARK BURNETT. He had the inside info.
Further, ChillOne has NEVER been more right than wrong. The early bootees were always one-off in the C1 spoiler, but we were able to get around that. The real kicker (and I'm sure MB laughed all night at his good luck) was the Gambling Scandal, which seemed to confirm the final 2 of Jenna/Matt. From that point on, the rest of C1 was assumed proven.
Last night (Christy's waxing) Matt voted with Rob, Heidi and Jenna, and the Cute Girls once again said to the not-so-cute-girl "You're not invited to my party. You're not as cute as we are."
One has to think that Butch is next (carry "Mr. Rogers" to the Final Two? I don't THINK so!), then Heidi and Jenna exact stirring revenge on Rob (and Matt goes along). Matt wins the Final IC and picks Jenna.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
Agreed Dawg.I myself have never bought into the ChillOne theory. I did think Heidi would get the boot last night since Snewser seemed so certain of the outcome till the end (the poll on his site). my husband thought it was Rob's night (from the non-spoiling perspective) before seeing the show (it still hasn't aired in primetime here yet so he hasn't seen it).
I just don't understand why people would be giving CO a freeride with all of these inaccuracies and then all of a sudden say "oh he was wrong so CO can't be". CO, as you said, has been wrong FAR more than right and the 'intel' is fuzzy at best, so it can be 'explained' or 'justified' later if he turns out to be wrong (oh wait see Shawna sounds like Jenna, sounds like Joanna, sounds like Jeanne - the 'well-built' guy...that could really be argued for ALL of them once you get down to the wire since none of them are overweight at this point).
Now MB got EXACTLY what he wanted out of the spoiling community...a resurgence in interest since the 'inevitable' turned out to be bogus.
Hey... I_AM_HE stole what I said last night in the East Coast thread...First of all, while ChillOne obviously screwed up the Final 4, we can not dismiss this theory all together.
Remember, without ChillOne, we probably wouldn't figured out the Deena and Alex boots. This reminds me of the old Oracle Theory of Mole 2. The opening credits were arranged in a way that we could figure out the boot order. And it worked all the way up to the Final 5! Was it a coincidence? We never found out for sure. And it may be the case for our dear ChillOne.
I will restate what He said. ChillOne may have given a perceived Final 4 that could be shifted back 2 episodes. It could just be that the Portugese man said "Final 4" when he meant "Final 6" maybe.
Let's look at it one step at a time.
5. Butch
-Obviously on the outside. Misdirection next week that Heidi and Jenna will break up. Why would Heidi want to break it off, unless she had something up her sleeeve (or Jenna for that matter) I say Occam's Razor here.4. Matthew
-Rob mentioned today that he wants to get rid of Matt while he can. This would be their best chance, before the Final Immunity happens.3. Jenna
-Rob (or maybe Heidi?) wins the final Immunity and takes the other to the Finals.2/1. Rob/Heidi
-This would match up well with the comment about the jury questions affecting the outcome, as I can see Heidi and Rob that way.
Just speculation though.
In Honor of Summary Writers...
6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey
7. "Christy wins the Jan Gentry “Aim High” Award" -Fester
8. "Heidi and Jenna are more Butch than Butch" -Draco
9. "Matthew: DINNER!" -Anotherkim
10. "Janet misplaces her granola bar. Granolagate!" -Swami
eee et al,Those were my same thoughts in the shower this morning (the shower is where I do my best thinking). If CO's intel came from boat drivers, the drivers would have no way of knowing the F2 because of the way Final TC is laid out. Perhaps they assumed Deaf girl 4th, Older guy 3rd, hot chick and athletic guy as the last two. No mention of dumpy guido boy Rob or anorexic Barbie Heidiho. Granted "hot chick" could be either Heidi or Jenna but there are still 2 people missing from the equation. Maybe it's Rob and Heidi (or Jenna) in the F2.
Also, how did we all get duped like this? People all across the web for some reason took ChillOne, a neophyte spoiler, who virtually came out of nowhere at face value. I know others (myself included) that have been around for YEARS and don't get that kind of carte blanche. So what happened? And note too that CO influenced betting at BoDogg. That is SERIOUS stuff, people are wagering MONEY based upon the word of a newbie. (No offense to all the newbies) Long-time trusted spoilers and webmasters took CO as gospel, many of the long-timers here took CO as gospel because he baited us, plain and simple. We got duped.
Anyway, we know Butch wins the car which basically tells us that he is a walking target. I hate to count him out because out of the remaining members he and Matt are the only two I can stomach.
"And I don't even care to shake these zipper blues. And we don't know just where our bones will rest,to dust I guess. Forgotten and absorbed to the Earth below."
how do you know Butch wins the car? I missed this.
Spoiler from Sucks..."And I don't even care to shake these zipper blues. And we don't know just where our bones will rest,to dust I guess. Forgotten and absorbed to the Earth below."
I think it's an open question about whether or not CO influenced betting at BoDog or the other sites. He certainly DIDN'T influence BoDog's opening odds, which had Jenna and Matt as the two longshots to win. And the odds were posted after CO posted.- A GeorgiaBelle original
>At this point, Christy would be
>fourth from last to arrive.
>Presumably Butch would be third,
>the hot girl would be
>second, and a strong guy
>would be first. This
>is because hte final two
>NEVER ARRIVE at loser lodge.
>
There is a big problem with this part of your theory. According to JP, the final vote will be done immediately after the final 3 IC (see TV Guide On-Line description for verification of this fact). Thus, unlike all other editions of Survivor we have seen, it will not only be the final 2 that never show up at LL, but the FINAL THREE will never show up at LL (except perhaps with the whole group after the final vote).Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think this puts a big whole in your theory. What am I missing?
No, I think you're right about it playing havoc with the theory presented here.- A GeorgiaBelle original
So then we have Alex, Christy and then Butch and ? showing up at LL before the final. Alex is the strong guy, Christy the deaf girl, Butch the guy in his 50's and Jenna or Heidi as the hottie.Still not in the right order though....
No, I think you're right about it playing havoc with the theory presented here.Unless the muscular guy with the "tight" haircut was Alex, and, once again, the order was wrong.
That would put Matt, Rob and Heidi in the final 3.
And maybe Deena was actually "Jana" who started ugly but by the end was pretty hot. And maybe the old guy was Roger, and maybe ChillOne's source was actually giving him the people who got booted out after the merge, but he forgot about Dave.Come on people! We can play this game all week if we want, but it's getting ridiculous. The only way a spoiler is of value is if it's right. Since Christy didn't go fourth, the ChillOne spoiler is WRONG. We can sit in this thresd and speculate about exactly how wrong it is or why it's wrong or we can do what we spoilers used to do around here, which is move over to another thresd (I might suggest Bungler's vidcaps or the CBS misdirection thresd) and start trying to puzzle our way through to the end. That at least is what I plan on doing.
The answer to Sleeeve's question is that there isn't any logical way that ChillOne's boot order could be right and the place numbering's wrong. Which again doesn't mean Butch doesn't go next, it just means there's no reason to assume he does.
Okay, enough ranting. Sorry, I just needed to get that off my chest.
My point having been: zzz's observation doesn't necessarily blow a hole in Sleeeve's hypothesis.But since the details are going to be off no matter how you look at it, it seems useless to speculate on the basis of ChillOne's intel anymore.
Possibility 1If CO's intel comes from the guy who drove the booted players away from TC as they are voted out he would know when Christy, Butch and Jenna (Hot Girl) left.
That leaves a Final 3 of Matt, Rob, Heidi. CO's source may only have carried Matt away from FINAL TC.
Rob and Heidi may have left on seperate boats than Matt.
That gives us CO's final 4 from his Sources percpective. His source omitted the final 2 because he didn't have first hand knowledge of the final 2.
Possibility 2
There was a picture near the end of S2 posted on this board that looked like it could be a picture from the "WRAP PARTY" ie. after filming was over. The picture had all the Jury members (except Keith). It lacked Keith, Colby, and Tina.
Maybe Keith was there (someone had to take the picture), or Mabybe Keith showed up later after debriefing (meeting with a shrink for evaluation).
MB may have reasons to keep the finalist (alteast the final 2) away from the other players EVEN AT LOSER LODGE. So if CO's intel comes from a LOSER LODGE staff member, they may not have Seen the final 2 even there.
Has the Gambling Scandal reports (which made the "real" news headlines) ever been debunked? If not, then we can still think that Jenna/Matt are the Final 2. If it WAS debunked (and I missed it), then the idea that chill one represents the last jury members would have some merit.Your confirmation, or comments?
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
I'm with you Dawg!I don't think it's actually been discredited.
If BoDogg has not been debunked, and has history spanning back a few seasons, I can't imagine they would have placed their bets based on Chillone -- they must have had other inside information.
I always took CO to be some interesting hints...That's it.
As for them both being EPMB plants...CO, maybe, don't really care. My gut feeling is that they're truthful, if inaccurate.
BoDogg...not so much. It's not in MB's interest to get the F2 names out there, and he could get in serious trouble screwing up a betting organization. BoDogg was making money on the Survivor betting -- not anymore.
I can't imagine MB going to more trouble than a post here and there on some board. He's got other things to do. Isn't he casting S7 right now? And prepping for the reunion show?
I'm more skeptical of BoDog than I am of CO.I remember very well hearing of a betting scandle during S4 or S5 I don't remember which for sure. But the story was the same as now, some CBS employees were making bets on who the final 2 were going to be and made a killing.
I've got to think If I heard this, MB and CBS had to be aware of it, and is there ANY doubt anyone associated with the scandle would have been fired by now?
The only way CBS employees are betting on SURVIVOR outcomes NOW, would be if MB & CBS wanted them betting. What would it cost to Skew the odds on a betting site? $20,000? $50,000? $100,000?
Is there any doubt MB and CBS would be willing to blow this kind of money to protect the show? Especially if they are aware of CO and just how close he is to being right? I think MB and CBS would be easily willing to blow $50,000 to discredit CO and protect the SURVIVOR franchise.
Except that the betting didn't discredit CO, it re-enforced him.I don't recall a S4 or S5 betting scandal. What did happen here, was the same people who's bets were canceled for S6 made the same bets on S4 and S5. This has confused some people posting here into believing there were separate S4 and S5 scandals.
- A GeorgiaBelle original
<<Except that the betting didn't discredit CO, it re-enforced him.>>The BoDog scandal re-enforced an ERRONEOUS INTERPRETATION of the CO info. And the ERRONEOUS INTERPRETATION that that final 2 are Matt and Jenna.
I think MB or his minions do follow the spoiler websites.
They see the CO intel.
By manipulating the BoDog betting they:Lull us in to complacency (how much spoiling has bee going on the last 2 weeks?)
Discredit CO (who's far closer to being right than they like)
Make us less likely to believe good intel in the future (we will be more likely to credit even good intel to an uncle boatman)
Remember, though, that the Casino Scandal made MAINSTREAM media headlines, not just in the area of reality TV. And the Mainstream Media is not going to report it just to help MB out.Hence, my asking if it is legit or not.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
>By manipulating the BoDog betting they:
>Lull us in to complacency (how much spoiling has bee going
>on the last 2 weeks?)
>Discredit CO (who's far closer to being right than they like)
>
>Make us less likely to believe good intel in the future
>(we will be more likely to credit even good intel
>to an uncle boatman)First, I'll admit that by nature I am NOT a conpiracy theorist.
I don't doubt that MB and some of the folks involved in production get a chuckle out of following the boards & spoiling. However, you will not be able to convince me that they are in such fear of the spoiling community that they would go to extreme lengths to confuse the entire bunch.
A bogus plant here and there? Sure. In fact, most likely.
A gambling scandal set-up that hits the mainstream press because they're afraid the spoilers have it all figured out? I seriously doubt it.Don't forget -- the spoiling community is only a small percentage of the show's target audience.
ChillOne posted this at Sucks just minutes ago:ChillOne
Registered User
Posts: 248
(5/2/03 8:47:22 am)
Reply Not to confuse things ....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You know, in revisiting my conversations with my source, it could be quite possible that there was a misunderstanding of the intel. I can't remember my exact question, but it could be that, indeed, my source was thinking the last 4 voted off vs. the Final 4. Given the supposed information about how the final voting is to be carried out, this could mean that Butch goes next followed by Matt, then Jenna; leaving Heidi and Rob. Given the language barrier, this could be a viable theory. Food for thought ...- The ChillOne
Can you say DAMAGE CONTROL??????????
It's damage control, but a legitimate scenario.Again, can anyone confirm/deny the Gambling Scandal situation?
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
LAST EDITED ON 05-02-03 AT 10:35 AM (EST)It's confirmed.
Edited to Add
Or at least, it's never been successfully debunked, though many have tried. BoDog did suspend all betting on Survivor except for whether or not the winner was male or female. The reason given was because they discovered several accounts belonged to CBS employees and their friends. Said accounts had successfully wagered the maximum on the F2 for several seasons (some sources say S3, S4, and S5; some just say S4 and S5) and had bet the maximum on Jenna and Matt as soon as BoDog opened betting. (When BoDog opened betting Jenna and Matt were the two longshots at 12-1.)
- A GeorgiaBelle original
LAST EDITED ON 05-02-03 AT 10:46 AM (EST)Some have implied it may have been influenced by C1 but it's never been denied. I posted this request on the spoiler thread last night:
>BoDogg- I think this may be our only spoiler that I can believe. My only problem with this spoiler is that the bets may have been largely affected by ChillOne.
Has anybody sat down and checked the chronology between C1 and BoDogg? C1's info came out in pieces not all at once. When did the more specific info come out on the final 4? Also, when did C1 final 4 become an accepted spoiler, something people would bet lots of money on? If I remember it was roundly flamed at first. We are assuming that the betting could have been affected by this spoiler. A chronology of the events would help to rule this out.
It wouldn't confirm it but it would at least rule out one theory.
If you look at the various stories about BoDogg you'll see that the original was 1 CBS employee who was involved in production with CBS and his neighbors, then it became 2 employees, then four, then several. The CBS denial was to say there are more conspiracy theories around Survivor then the XFiles (which is at least different from the old "we do not comment").
Edited to add link to one of the first stories:
http://www.onlinecasinonews.com/ocn/article/article.asp?id=3072
If, as some are supposing, CO is a plant then his post could be more misdirection. Why else would he be posting the exact same thoughts as Sleeeve? So does that mean we could toss out this theory as well.....help, need more coffee, argggggggggggggg
God Bless America
There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.
Typical. CO never clarified the First 4 intel with follow-up questions, he just accepted it at face value without considering the margins for error. He did the same thing here, apparently.
I still think this spoiler is junk now, but just throwing this out....When Chill One was asking his questions, he was assuming the third person voted out got to go back to LL. Now we know this has changed for this year. The final voting to determine the winner occurs right then and there after the final TC. So if we go along with what he is saying... the last four voted out could be....
Alex
Christy
and two of the following: Butch, Heidi, Jenna, Matt or RobBecause the final 3 don't go back to LL.
So Alex is your strong guy, Christy is the deaf girl, Butch is your older man, and then one of the bimbos.
That means Rob and one of the bimbos, probably Jenna, make the final two. However this strategy has been revealed to us. Will it stick?
There is no way to make any sense of ChillOne if CBS is being honest and there is no break between the Fourteenth Boot and the jury vote. Christy would then be the third to last person to be shuttled back to wherever the jury stays. The last juror won't be the fourth person to go back, instead they will come back just as disheveled as the Final 2.In any event, there is no way to prove any of this so we'll just have to go with spoiler logic I suppose. ChillOne has now been wrong about EVERY BOOT he has predicted. Just to recap.
First Boot: Daniel--WRONG
Second Boot: Ryan--WRONG
Third Boot: Joanna--WRONG
Fourth Boot: Woman in 30s--WRONG
Fourth Place: Christy--WRONG
Third Place: Butch--??
Second Place: Built Guy (Matthew)--??
First Place: Jana (Jenna)--??I can only assume that ChillOne is a plant and is going to go 0 for 8. What the right answers are, only time will tell.
Thank you for backing me up. ChillOne is apparently now trying to peddle this theory. However, to get around the problem I have pointed out, he does not rely on the LL approach. He seems to attribute it to bad communication and that the person was answering the question of who were the final four voted out rather than the final four in the game. This seems really lame, especially given that there was not a clear order between Matt and Jenna (another problem with the LL theory).ChillOne definitely had inside information. That is clear. He also had incorrect information. The only question in my mind is whether he is the liar, someone lied to him or he really just talked to a native who had a bad memory and got a lot of the details wrong, while still giving him inside information. No matter which it is, I think we should consider the CO spoiler irrelevant to spoiling the rest of the game.
Again, I think I'm in agreement with you.At best, ChillOne is an honest spoiler who asked a native who the Final 4 were. The native knew some people left at the end of the game (possibly at F6) and listed off the more memorable ones, which included Jenna, Butch, Matt, and Christy.
At worst, ChillOne is a total plant, meaning that nothing he has told us is, was, or ever will be, right.
In either case, I do not think there is any use in continuing the boot order. If Butch goes next, we should come to that conclusion through logic or other spoiling outside of ChillOne, not because he is listed next on a list from a newbie that is either intentionally or unintentionally wrong.
Interesting. maybe C1 was listing the last 4 to LL?
Christy
Butch
Matt
JennaLeaves us Rob and Heidi.
If R/J/H really stick together - this could happen.
I might have to rethink this.
I love conspiracies more than anyone except perhaps Snoocharoo.But here is my take on ChillOne. ChillOne is a legit poster that was trying to break a story and become semi-famous in our community. The unfortunate part is that the info ChillOne received was diluted and their was a communication breakdown.
For all it is worth ChillOne is useless info at this point. Sure the damage control by CO could be right. Maybe these are the listing of the last 4 voted off. But there is an equal chance that Jenna and Matthew are the Final 2. Nothing can be believed by ChillOne because his inaccuracies have repeatedly shown us this. AZLeo made a great point to me that CO wasn't what lead him to believe Jenna and Matt were the Final 2, but it was BoDogg.
But Butch going next people. While of course anything is possible I believe that Heidi goes next. Now that Jenna and Heidi are actually playing the game instead of making friends, backstabbing each other might happen. But unlike the previews tell us, Jenna actually does the backstabbing and Heidi goes. Which weirdly enough might be a little vindication for Milkshaky.
Butch sticks around at least another week as now he is Rob's ace in the hole and Rob can flop back to him to eliminate one of the girls. Rob knows that the girl alliance is the strongest and needs to be broken up. Now is the last time before the Final Four makes a tie his only chance.
BM, with you. Forget the CO stuff for now. Let's look at what is. Rob wants Jenna at the final two with him, she is the one person he has a chance to beat.Rob fears Heidi and wants her gone especially since she isn't in his pocket.
Rob fears Matthew but Matt has played good boy and hasn't appeared to change that yet.
Butch is Jan - she is a vote Rob may need for numbers. He is going when it is time and next week is not time.
Jenna IMO gave Heidi that necklace with FU attitude towards Rob and Rob ain't liking it but man on man he needs her to stay
She is going to be begging to go next week and like Shawna she is trapped, Rob ain't letting her go. She is stuck with that loathsome creature (speaking from Jenna's point of view) like a fungus.
Heidi is doomed and she can only hope that Jenna's begging may help her move one square up; won't work b/c Rob ain't lettin that happen and even if J/H have two votes, Rob still has Matt and Butch is going to be Jan and vote where he is supposed to.
AFter that, Butch gets his car and leaves when he is supposed to because at this point if Rob tries to oust Matt he may have a struggle there with having Butch vote with him against Matt.
After that Rob is sitting there with Matt who has a weird symbolic relationship with Matt and feels he and Rob as the final two is fitting so if Matt wins immunity he would take Rob and Jenna who knows perfectly well she couldn't beat Matt in a final two showdown b/c Rob let her know in her face basically she is second on the not so well liked list. In addition,
Jenna stated she has only betrayed anyone who screwed her over. She has, as far as I know for sure, had an alliance with Matt or promised him anything. This is a million bucks and what perfect punishment for her to take Rob to the final (if she won immunity) so she can beat his ass.Rob if he wins immunity, please, he is going to screw Matt over because he never had any plans not to.
Rob is counting on Matt to carry him far enough and also not allowing Jenna to leave.
Obviously immunity comes into play and this is just a theory.
I think it's a very good theory. The Yahoo Premium stuff shows that Rob fears Heidi the most, and she is who he will want gone next.- A GeorgiaBelle original
Veruca I am with you 95% of the way.Yes Heidi goes next week. Rob might be able to get Jenna to backstab her, but more importantly he has Butch and Matt.
Then Matt and Rob take Jenna and vote off Butch. Finally at the end when it looks like Rob has played the best game ever (trumping Richard Hatch for sure), he gets backstabbed by Matt. Matt wins immunity when Rob already has discussed with Jenna that they need each other and both should vote off Matt. Rob also thinks that even if Matt wins Matt will take him at least assuring him 2nd. But alas Matt decides to take Jenna proving that he finally understands the game, even better than Rob.
And the crownd goes wild!!! (OK I am getting a little too excited about the possibility of this being true)
Why would rob/matt vote off butch in you scenario? I think Matt has an alliance with butch. maybe it's Rob and jenna that vote off butch.However, I think H/R/J go after Butch this week.
I don't think jenna will backstab H. She even gave her the necklace(granted to get at rob).
Ha BM, is that final two because you want Matt to be there more than Rob?? lololol. I want Matt to win personally but because I just like him better.There are two ways to look at it with the editing.
Either the student overcomes the teacher as Matt starts out as this naive young student in danger of being kicked out but with the help of this master becomes a true master of the game.
Or, Rob is the puppet master who hides behind this I'm just an non athletic, ugly runt who just gosh darn it had to do something to beat out these athletic pretty and smart people!
Both scenarios have been edited to fit that bill for them to be in the final two position.
And where does Jenna fit into this? Queen of the Amazon? The not so nice at times semi snob who gets everything she wants without seemingly having to work too hard to get it? The one who conquered the men? If she were to be the winner, her editing seems to fit more towards defeating Rob especially if he contains her in this arranged marriage she is disgusted by.
FSUGUY - IMO, Matt only has an alliance with Rob and gives the instructions to Butch. I think he has warm feelings towards Butch but Butch is certainly not worthy of winning the game. The way Matt spoke to Rob about the order of people and such made me inclined to believe that. Couple that with Butch NOT knowing about the booting of Christy? I don't think Matt would have kept that from Butch if they had an alliance.
I know butch will go, but why him then jenna. I think Matt would go the jenna, butch order.As for Christy, do we know if Matt was going to vote Heidi until the necklace swap? if so, then maybe butch Assumed to go after jenna and matt knew the others were going after christy so he went that way. Matt and butch are probably closer than we see. Just little things I noticed. And we know how MB is about hiding alliances/relationships.
Either the student overcomes the teacher as Matt starts out as this naive young student in danger of being kicked out but with the help of this master becomes a true master of the game.I think you're onto something here...
5th place: Heidi goes. Rob is still manipulating with all he's got, and he does not want to end up in a tie at final 4. That means he has to get rid of one of the girls, and he'd rather see Heidi go. He'll use outsider Butch's vote to break up the solid pair.
4th place: Does Jenna win immunity here? Why not, she's won it a number of times before. The irony continues that the girl who declared she could never win an immunity challenge takes it here. Is this where the expendable Butch goes, or the manipulative Rob? Take your pick. I'm leaning slightly toward taking Rob out here. Jenna could throw some seeds of doubt into Matthew's head by reminding him of the conversation where Rob said he wanted to go to the final 2 with her, and if Butch knows he's vulnerable (which he should), he could be persuaded.
3rd place: Doesn't matter whether Butch or Rob went first, the other goes here. Veruca mentioned the student learning from the master. Well, we were shown the master saying why he wanted to go to the Final 2 with Jenna. We also know that Matthew is aware that conversation took place. Maybe he decides he would have an easier time winning against Jenna, and doesn't want to take the risk of Rob being able to win votes for how hard he played the game. Or maybe we have Jenna winning the final IC and deciding she doesn't want Rob to get the final 2 he talked about, so she takes her chances with Matthew instead. And if Butch is the one left instead of Rob, neither Jenna nor Matthew would take Butch to the final 2, since we were shown in the Q&A IC how much he is trusted by the other players.
So I'm still leaning toward a Matt-Jenna final 2, with Matt winning the million.
Bebo says...919 beats 205 - I am your American Idol and the Baroness of Babedom.
Matt doesn't have an alliance with Butch because Butch knew nothing about their vote last night. Butch is really the only lone wolf right now. He has proven to be loyal and dependable since he has always voted according to his alliance and put the alliances that he has formed in front of any strategy that favors himself.Butch is going nowhere this week. Why would Matt and Rob vote off Butch if the Final 4 was M/R/B/J you ask. Simple. He is the only one left on the show that noone on the jury would feel any negativity toward. Matt's crazy and has begun backstabbing alliances, Rob has backstabbed everyone, and Jenna jury members hate because they think she is lazy, uses her body and really hasn't started playing the game until the last TC.
Jenna might not backstab Heidi (though she might now that she is thinking strategy). But Rob and Matt don't need her. They have Butch.
Survivin Dawg's is the Conspiracy Theorist, I'm just paranoid.CO whether genuine or not holds no water anymore. The fact is that we all screwed ourselves by buying into it so readily and without question. I'm not taking anything away from CO, perhaps he got screwed by his intel and felt bad and tried to right the situation by showing up over at Sucks and posting what he did. If nothing else, CO's got guts, Spoilers is a tough crowd. Make a mistake and you'll be DEVOURED.
I have to give CO the benefit of the doubt and tie it together with my own speculation, the speculation I see here and what logically makes sense. Right now, based upon the aforementioned and by process of elimination we are left with Heid/Jenna -vs-Rob/Matt in the F2.
I agree too that Butch makes it in Ep.12 and Heidi goes bye bye only because Butch is a tool to be used by whomever comes across as genuine. In due course he too will become a member of the jury unless he forms a temporary alliance to rid the tribe of Rob which I highly doubt.
Maybe Milkshaky just got his dates all screwed up. He said that his source told him "sometime around the beginning of May". Milk theorized that May 1st would be the day for Heidi's departure based upon when the episodes aired. Well what if Heidi departs next week? It would be unwise to keep that voting block of Jenna and Heidi together. Hopefully Rob convinces everyone that they must be broken up. Heidi becomes a jury member fulfilling Milk's spoiler (a week late but...).
Now Rob thinks he has the power and in a desperate attempt to pitch himself against the most vile person on the tribe (Jenna)he goes after Matt, trying desperately to rally the others to his cause. Unfortunately for Rob, Matt or Jenna wins IC (if Jenna wins IC this fulfills the spoiler that Rob gets screwed over by a pretty girl) and Jenna, Butch and Matt all vote Rob out. If Matt is a wise a student he will have learned that he must take Jenna to the F2 if he hopes to win the game.
Deena = ?
Alex = Jenna
Dave = Matt
Christy = ?
Heidi = Jenna
Butch = Matt
Rob = MattI waiver on the votes from Deena and Christy. Deena because of her femi-nazi belief that a woman should win, but will she feel this way when she see's Jenna up there, especially after Jenna caled her a fat pig... Christy because I think she may realize that Matt betrayed her and votes Jenna out of spite, but I highly doubt it. She HATES Jenna like poison.
Christy will give the Rat-Snake Speech.
Devil and the deep blue sea behind me. Vanish in the air you'll never find me. I will turn your face to alabaster, when you find your servant is your master.
LAST EDITED ON 05-02-03 AT 02:07 PM (EST)Survivin Dawg's is the Conspiracy Theorist,
Thanks.... I think....
I'm just paranoid.
Remember, it ain't paranoia if they really are out to get ya!
P.S. Christy's vote would certainly be against Heidi or Jenna if either was against Matt.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
Hey! I finally recognized one of your lyrics.I'll be wrapped around your finger...
- A GeorgiaBelle original
A rather appropriate song for the Matt/Rob relationship.
"You consider me the young apprentice
Caught between the Scylla and Charibdes,
Hypnotized by you if I should linger
Staring at the ring around your finger
I have only come here seeking knowledge,
Things they would not teach me of in college
I can see the destiny you sold
Turned into a shining band of goldI'll be wrapped around your finger
I'll be wrapped around your fingerMephistopheles is not your name
But I know what you're up to just the same
I will listen hard to your tuition
And you will see it come to it's fruitionI'll be wrapped around your finger
I'll be wrapped around your fingerDevil and the deep blue sea behind me
Vanish in the air you'll never find me
I will turn your face to alabaster
Then you'll find your servant is your master,And you'll be wrapped around my finger
I'll be wrapped around your finger
You'll be wrapped around my finger
I'll be wrapped around your finger
LAST EDITED ON 05-02-03 AT 02:54 PM (EST)>Survivin Dawg's is the Conspiracy Theorist,
>I'm just paranoid.You're right about the Dawg, but I will definitely not let you fly UTR in the conspiracy department after reading many of your posts this past week.
>I agree too that Butch makes
>it in Ep.12 and Heidi
>goes bye bye only because
>Butch is a tool to
>be used by whomever comes
>across as genuine. In due
>course he too will become
>a member of the jury
>unless he forms a temporary
>alliance to rid the tribe
>of Rob which I highly
>doubt.On Bungler's thread there is one picture that makes me at least waver that Heidi goes next week. The picture shows Butch with his arms around both Heidi and Jenna. Now I just like to play Devil's advocate and hope we look at all angles, but this is the only thing that might stop Heidi from going this week. Is Butch dumb enough to give himself no chance against the evil stepsister Boobsie twin alliance. Doubtful. I still say Heidi goes next, but it is interesting and if Butch who no longer has an alliance pairs up with Heidi/Jenna then Rob could go now.
I really see no angle on Butch going this week however and think he is in the safest position to make the Final 4. Though he is probably either way candidate #1 (maybe 2) to be the first one eliminated in the Final 4.
Edited because I forgot to proof read my posts.
I really see no angle on Butch going this week however and think he is in the safest position to make the Final 4.He is in the position that Christy thought she was in - the swing vote. If the 4 who voted Christy out stick together this week, they all know they'd be heading for a 2-2 tie at the next TC. But making an alliance with Butch at this point guarantees getting to boot one of the two people in the other pair, as well as practically guaranteeing the final 3. The only way that trio would have to break up is if the other remaining person wins immunity...but at that point the pair could just join up with the IC winner to take out Butch 3-1.
He's going to be the popular guy in camp.
Bebo says...919 beats 205 - I am your American Idol and the Baroness of Babedom.
How did Christy think that she was in such a great position in the first spot? Her voting for Jenna last night how was that ever going to be evidence of a swing vote??? She expected 4-2 against Jenna. Even if she would have swung to the girls it would have been 3-3 and since when is that a swing vote? Was she told something other than what we know. She rejected the girls offer, rejected Rob's attempts to even make an offer, etc.Even though I really loved her up to TC last night, she got REAL big for her britches REAL quick. 4th time in a row that the most arrogant person in TC gets voted off. AMAZING!!!
Also the funniest thing I remember is that Rob litterally rips on the girls with his "not being handicapped by that problem (good looks)" while still maintaining his voting alliance. That't they type of player he is. He'll hate the hell out of you, but if it is better for him to be with you, he'll do it. He's a player.
Has anyone else wondered how it is that Matt, who has in previous displays of marksmanship proven to be the most capable, came to be nearly shut out of the imunity competition? I know it strikes an uncarateristic chord to me.Knowing the tension in the tribe at the time he may have been playing this strategy to see the tribal cauldron to stew a bit and see where the results end up?
As to who to count on for the predictions of F2, it is still an open question and remember that it is just a game.
More ramblings from a lurker.Cernus
He got one of Jenna's, too. So did Butch, the outdoorsman. I was wondering if they were intentionally trying to give her more chances to win immunity than Heidi had.
I think that they may have, as you said, been "trying to give Jenna more chances". Remember they (M/B) are suposedly aligned and it was thier intention to vote Heidi off.giving jenna more chances at imunity at least to some degree makes sense, if thats what they had in mind.
I am still trying to gauge what made Matt change and vote Christy off. That was a puzzler for me.
Did Rob let him in on his and the boobsie twins plan to off Christy???
But with the last minute imunity swap of J/H it may have just been a fluke.
......More ramblings of a lurker
Cernus
LAST EDITED ON 05-02-03 AT 04:04 PM (EST)Like everyone else I believe the ChillOne is pretty much toast as a basis for predicting the endgame now, but since he did come back to defend himself (albeit weakly) on Sucks, I don't think he was a plant. I think his sources just remembered things incorrectly, or there was a communication barrier about what was being asked...whatever.
In any case, we did actually get to CO's final 4, just with two extra people still hanging around. And the BoDogg spoiler would still seem to confirm Matt and Jenna as the final 2.
Assuming that Jenna is indeed in the final two, that would leave Heidi to be the hot girl and Rob to be the final guy.
Sleeeve's theory might be correct, except that the final guy and the hot girl really are Matt and Jenna, the final 2. The omitted people are the F4 and F3 boots.
Christy will now be shuttled back in 3 days for TC 12, then (given the timeframe for the last episode) again 2 days later for TC13, and one day later for TC14 and the jury vote. If Butch goes next, he will be shuttled back 2 days later for TC 13 and then again one day later for the wind-up.
Rob and Heidi are interchangeable as the next two boots, but say Rob goes at TC13. He only comes back once, with everyone else, for the last TC and jury vote. Heidi, booted at TC14, never physically leaves the game.
The boat drivers might have remembered Christy and Butch as the last two boots because Rob got lost in the shuffle of having to bring everyone back to TC for the last time; while they never had to transport Heidi at all. But they did know, when it was all over with, that Matt and Jenna were the Final 2.
Just a possibility. Or not.
Except according to the previews TC13 is followed immeadiately by the final vote so there really isn't a TC14. This is if I am reading this correctly.
TC13 would be the F4 boot, so there is one more TC left to determine the final 2. My interpretation is that TC12 will occur on day 36, TC13 will occur on day 38 and TC14 will occur on day 39 followed immediately by the jury vote.
BR - I stand corrected.
But . . . if mavsfan theory is correct, see id #9, ChillOne's source wouldn't know of the remaining two. Heidi and Rob!Miss Scarlet
for those that think this could be the last 4 taken away, starting with Christy....
christy E11
butch E12
matt E13
jenna E14...wrong...they vote then so she never leaves.I thought this at first, as being possible(not happening), but, I don't see it now.
How would Heidi loose in teh fnal four to MAtt or Rob she has no votes the only way is if Matt wins teh immunity but then why risk Heidi winning thw questiuons they would vote off Jenna
In the last few Survivors they have not used prior votes to break a tie. It will probably be the purple rock.