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Original Message
"ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"

Posted by samboohoo on 11-05-12 at 05:32 PM
Have you voted yet?


Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie



Table of contents

Messages in this discussion
"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-05-12 at 05:52 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-05-12 AT 05:58 PM (EST)

Little early isn't it?

ETA - Found this story on the side of the page a little odd. A bookie is already paying out bets on Obama winning?

http://www.realitytvworld.com/news/bookie-ends-bet-on-presidential-election-1031560.php


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Starshine on 11-05-12 at 06:22 PM
Paddy Powe2er have a bit of a record of paying out early.

Good luck finding an open bookies to pay your ticket, and tomorrow morning they are either prescient or don't have to pay.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by foonermints on 11-05-12 at 06:09 PM
Yep.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Estee on 11-05-12 at 06:12 PM
You're just trying to keep me from following through on the threat of reusing that Gilda 'HATE' campaign poster.

(To be continued.)


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Karchita on 11-05-12 at 06:25 PM
I voted O and Joe two weeks ago.


And the champagne is chilling.


"Just a Reminder"
Posted by dabo on 11-05-12 at 06:30 PM
Stock up on booze tonight so you'll be ready for the drinking game(s) as soon as the polls start closing.



"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by Round Robin on 11-06-12 at 05:18 AM
I ain't stockin' up on no GD booze. If I do and them 2 commies get elected again, I'll want to drink myself into a stupor.

"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 08:18 AM
Unless you live in South Carolina or Kentucky - where it's illegal to buy alcohol on Election Day.

"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by jbug on 11-06-12 at 11:36 AM
Our little grocery store has a sign on the door:
No beer sales on Tues Nov 6 due to Election Day.

"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 12:24 PM
Here too, thought it was pretty much everywhere, why I posted the reminder yesterday.

"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by Round Robin on 11-06-12 at 03:40 PM
Not sure what the current law is in PA, but it used to be the law here that you couldn't get alcoholic drink before 9PM on election day unless the place had a Sunday license, in which case it could open for normal hours.

BTW, I voted.


"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 03:47 PM
In Indiana and Illinois (where I lived before coming here) the law simply is no liquor sales on Election Day until the polls close. I'm pretty certain the businessmen can still have their three martini lunches, though.

"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 05:24 PM
I know this was true last election, but here in Indiana they must have changed the law.

I noticed Big Red was open on the way home from work and picked up a small bottle of Drambuie to have a few sips of for the evening's festivities!



"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 07:28 PM
I've got some Shock Top Pumpkin Wheat Ale, I don't think I can face the coverage without some reinforcing.

The question is what channel to watch. Do I go for accuracy, pathos or amusement value?


"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 08:22 PM
I've always followed it on CNN, dating back to when I was Malaysia and it was the only network available overseas to follow it closely. I still follow it on CNN although I'm not a huge Wolf Blitzer fan. The analysis is sometimes interesting, but sometimes I think they (like the other networks) also fall into the trap of over-analysis.

"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 08:27 PM
So far sticking with CNN, tried a bit of MSNBC and Foxnews but couldn't take it. And I like looking at Anderson Cooper. I may do a tour through the networks as well.

"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 08:46 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 09:49 PM (EST)

Cooper's my fav of the CNN crew, too!

It seems that Blitzer has been doing this for ages, so I always tended to associate election coverage with him.

(eta) And I like the CNN online coverage, with up-to-minute vote totals and immediate projections. This is the vote totals & CNN projections page with a "live" map. You can also move into the Senate, House and Gov tabs to check on your state's races, or select ALL with your state and check all of the state-wide elections.


"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by Round Robin on 11-06-12 at 08:34 PM
I have 3 TV's in my living room, all on election stuff, FOX, CNBC, and ABC.

"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 08:42 PM
I generally don't go there (despite what some may think), but I'm on MSDemBC right now.

I have to hold my nose when they go to Sharpton.


"RE: Just a Reminder"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 11:54 PM
Found this article.

http://tribstar.com/local/x691732199/Indiana-voters-can-buy-alcohol-after-voting-this-year

Odd, they did that everywhere I lived in Illinois, I guess those must have been local prohibitions.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Estee on 11-05-12 at 06:36 PM
My loss of vehicle forced me to cancel a hair trimming appointment I had today. Which is actually a good thing, because when the urge to tear my hair out comes around tomorrow night, there's nothing wrong with establishing a lower initial grip.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Snidget on 11-05-12 at 06:45 PM
Voted Friday, one of the early voting places is around the corner from the Coop where I pick up my CSA veggies (last box of the year, *sob*)

Took about an hour, the weather was nice, so standing outside wasn't bad. Surprised how many of the local candidates were out talking to people in the line. One of them even brought mints (the candy kind, not the fooner kind).


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by AyaK on 11-05-12 at 07:10 PM
I live in one of the states that doesn't permit early voting except with a verifiable reason, which I lost when I declined to work the polls all day for Scott Brown (which I had originally planned to do, but just couldn't manage with my current client schedule).

I'm planning on trying to vote when the polls open tomorrow. I'll report in after that.


"By The Numbers"
Posted by dabo on 11-05-12 at 09:36 PM
435 U.S. House races

270 Electoral College votes required to win presidency and vice presidency

51 Electoral College contests to decide president/vice president race

33 U.S. Senate races

11 state gubernatorial races

1 statehood referendum


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Max Headroom on 11-05-12 at 10:25 PM
Voted the Friday before last, all part of the plan as I'm out of state until Wednesday night.

"The Polls"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 01:35 AM
Did you shudder? Did you cringe? Did you cry out, "Oh, no, not more polls!"? Don't worry, this isn't about those polls.

Aside: Been polled I don't know how many times the last month or so, just for yucks I've been answering undecided as often as possible.

Anyway, FYI, these are the times that polls (voting) close in the various constituancies, not allowing for extended polling times as needed in various places. For states that cover more than one time zone, where voting concludes later in the west than in the east, the time is given for the west. All times are all in Eastern Standard Time, convert to your own time as needed.

States with more than one time zone: Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan (portion of upper penninsula), North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho, Oregon, Alaska. And away we go!

4:00 PM - Puerto Rico

7:00 PM - Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

7:30 PM - North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

8:00 PM - Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee

8:30 PM - Arkansas

9:00 PM - Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

10:00 PM - Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

11:00 PM - California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington

1:00 AM - Alaska


"Voting"
Posted by VisionQuest on 11-06-12 at 07:49 AM
Will hit up the polls on my way home from work - about 4:30.



"His and Hers Election"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 08:18 AM
Just saw a report on the local 24 hour news channel

http://triad.news14.com/content/669256/charlotte-couple-a-political-house-divided

I wonder how long they'll be able to watch the returns together.


"RE: His and Hers Election"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 09:30 AM

It can work.


Capn2patch put me in motion!


"Early, Early Results..."
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 09:03 AM
Dixville Notch, NH (the traditional first in the nation voters) was a tie 5 votes Romney, 5 votes Obama.

Harts Location (who want the first in the nation title for themselves) went for Obama - 23 votes to 9 for Romney and 1 for Gary Johnson.


"In that case..."
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 09:11 AM
*calls race for Gary Johnson*

"RE: In that case..."
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 09:14 AM
Nah - it's New Hampshire. That kind of vote counting only happens in Florida and Ohio.

"NC Voting Report"
Posted by Bebo on 11-06-12 at 10:12 AM
Hubby got to the polls just before 7, and it was a total zoo. Took almost 2 hours to get to vote.

I'm hoping to go mid-morning, but I do have the ace up my sleeve that I am eligible to vote curbside and avoid standing in line forever.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by HobbsofMI on 11-06-12 at 10:18 AM
50 people in line when I got there 15 minutes to 7 am. They were adding tables for people to vote, we use scan trons, cause they only had 4 to begin with. Most seemed to be there for all our ballot and Mayor recall from the talk in line.


sig Syren, bouncy by IceCat, bobble head by Tribephyl, and snoglobe by agman


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by AyaK on 11-06-12 at 10:32 AM
We use an optical scanner with about 25 "booths" set up for people to mark their scanned ballot. All the tables were full at 7:15, even though there wasn't that much on the ballot. More interestingly, the optical scanner then broke down. The people at the polls had to call the town clerk to decide what to do, so we had a line of about 60 waiting to turn their ballots in. We ended up putting the unscanned ballots -- and the scanned ballots -- in a red cooler bag, and the clerk was going to have the scanner reset and rescan everything from ballot one.

I'm just glad that I don't live in a place with electronic voting machines!


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 03:35 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 03:41 PM (EST)

I was surprised to see a return to the paper ballot with boxes to X in or check in or fill in (your pick, although the instructions were not entirely clear on this, indicating "mark the box").

The ballots are then put into a scanner where it is deposited in a sealed container below the scanner.

I went with a mixed party ballot, although I've already made clear here who are a few of my preferences at the national and state level. There is at least one woman in almost every state district and local district contest, and I think there were more women than men up for election at this level! I also voted one Libertarian who actually took the initiative to go out and personally canvas votes door-to-door, on Halloween night at that! I'm happy with my well-informed votes, leaving a few blank (e.g., some school district seats) because I knew too little about either candidate to make an informed decision.

(eta)

I'm just glad that I don't live in a place with electronic voting machines!

Me too!


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Round Robin on 11-06-12 at 03:45 PM
I voted all GOP except for state AG, where the Repub was hand picked by our governor, who I hate because of his handling of the Jerry Sandusky case. In a word, Corbett is a hypocrite, and I trust neither him nor anybody he hand picks.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by thndrkttn on 11-06-12 at 10:46 AM
DH voted two weeks ago and I voted this morning. Got there at 6:20 and got out about an hour later. My whole team has voted and oddly enough, we all voted the same direction. All nine of us.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 10:57 AM
I voted commie.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 12:37 PM
Must be easier to get them on the ballot in NJ. Here they can't get enough signatures, so never make it that far.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 01:32 PM
We had about a dozen alternate parties, including International Workers, Constitutionist, Green, and Gary Johnson's ID -- Libertarian.

At least they know they got one vote.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 01:42 PM
Other than the libertarians I don't think anyone else can muster what it takes to even be an official write in candidate.

I always thought the purpose of write in candidates is you can vote for who you want, but I think we had only two official write ins and only for governor here.

I don't think they can stop you from writing in other things, but they sure as heck ain't gonna count it.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 01:54 PM
Just to clear this up: none of those alternates were write-ins. I had a push-button machine and each mentioned party (plus a bunch of others) had a button of its own. If you wanted to write someone in, you typed in their name on the two-strip keyboard and then hit Enter.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 02:11 PM
Oh, I'm clear that you get them on the real ballot.

I was just lamenting that even if we can't get them on the real ballot, here in NC we can't even write them in.

I don't know if any other state has a more effective way of keeping all the others off the ballot.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 02:15 PM
Oh, I'm clear that you get them on the real ballot.

I thought our Floridians might have been confused.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Bebo on 11-07-12 at 02:50 PM
>I was just lamenting that even
>if we can't get them
>on the real ballot, here
>in NC we can't even
>write them in.

Snidge, here in Wake County, we were able to write-in for the Soil and Water Conservation board.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Snidget on 11-07-12 at 08:55 PM
Oooooo, they let the public loose with that much power?

"In church?"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 11:06 AM
For the first time, my polling place is actually in a church, First United Church. And I wondered, why is a polling place in a church, of all places, especially considering that there are many other facilities available in the area where I voted before? And why the change in polling places?

I will go vote there during lunch hour.

If anyone asks why I cast the ballot that I did, I'll plead divine intervention. Or the devil made me do it.

Op-ed about using houses of worship as polling places.


"RE: In church?"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 11:09 AM
why is a polling place in a church, of all places

Without reading the op-ed piece: attempted induction of guilt for anyone thinking about 'going against Christian values'.


"RE: In church?"
Posted by AyaK on 11-06-12 at 11:20 AM
In Lexington, MA, we closed the schools for a day so that we can use all the school buildings as polling places. I'm not sure if you can do that in places where the schools aren't run by the local government.

When I lived in Ohio, in a town where Barack Obama spoke (in my old high school gym) Saturday night, I voted in a Catholic high school, so I'm not sure that's much different.


"RE: In church?"
Posted by jbug on 11-06-12 at 11:41 AM
can't speak for all of TN, but our county schools are closed as they are used for voting.

"RE: In church?"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 12:35 PM
In Missouri I remember voting being at the schools, but I don't recall them ever closing school. But that was then, now they probably worry about having too many of the general public wandering around where the kiddies are.

Here I've voted at a volunteer fire house (when I lived out in the countryside) and in town it has either been at the one of two different community center type buildings. Not sure why they switched from one to the other, and I'm not sure what the other voting places in town are (the library and one of the court buildings are the early voting places)


"RE: In church?"
Posted by CTgirl on 11-06-12 at 12:59 PM
Its often a parking issue - if there is no school, the teachers aren't there, leaving the parking for the voters.

"RE: In church?"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 01:42 PM
The elementary and high schools here are closed for election day, and some of them are being used as polling places. There are other venues that are available and were used previously. My previous polling place was in fact a gym.

I'd like to present this question a different way...

What would Christian (and other) voters think if the polling place is a mosque (or even a synagogue or Buddhist temple)? There's a large mosque here in this university town that I'm sure would have ample space in one of its several large halls. I would imagine some fundamentalist Christian Republicans who would refuse to set foot in a mosque.


"RE: In church?"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 01:53 PM
But why would anyone object to voting for the President in his own house of faith?

You're making me want to set this up just so I can listen to the screams.


"RE: In church?"
Posted by AyaK on 11-06-12 at 01:53 PM
I saw conservative Christian Republicans saying that they'd crawl through broken glass to vote against Obama. Voting in a mosque can't be worse than that.

"RE: In church?"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 04:18 PM
But that's tearing up your body versus endangering your immortal soul.

Leslie.


"RE: In church?"
Posted by Bebo on 11-07-12 at 02:48 PM
In my county, the traditional calendar students had Election Day off, while year-round schools opened 2 hours late.


"RE: In church?"
Posted by Molaholic on 11-06-12 at 11:40 AM
I've voted at one church or another (actually the meeting hall next door, but church property) every election since 1988. Before that it was a series of private homes. I'll get to the polls around 4:30 -- after work.


BTW, those here in L.A. -- if you've been listening to KNX radio, the live reports coming in from Cypress Park are coming from my school. Newsvan is parked in front of the auditorium. I noticed a crowd of about 25-30 people at 7:00.


"RE: In church?"
Posted by HobbsofMI on 11-06-12 at 12:54 PM
My polling place is in a church and I think many in Troy are. Big, open and don't disrupt schools and their lunch rooms. I know Royal Oak's are all in school lunch rooms and the kids eat in their class room that day and there is no hot lunch.


sig Syren, bouncy by IceCat, bobble head by Tribephyl, and snoglobe by agman


"RE: In church?"
Posted by taffnic on 11-06-12 at 02:00 PM
My polling place has been at a church for the last 3 times. I voted about 9am and the wait wasn't too long.



"What does your voting location/booth look like?"
Posted by jbug on 11-06-12 at 11:51 AM
We vote in the school cafeteria; go to one table; then to another table. Then to the booth to vote.
We don't have curtains around our booths. (I noticed on the news this morning when Biden voted that he had a curtain). But then we usually only have about 4 or 5 booths so there is plenty of space to spread them out.
We have electronic booths (I guess that is what they're called). Push the little square button next to the candidate of your choice.
Then at the end, confirm.

(I remember when we had the little pin to push into the hole remember 'chads' ? )

Haven't been yet; will have to wait till after work.
One of the bosses went just a bit ago. Said the wait wasn't too long; a good crowd (as he called it).

I'll pick up DH as soon as I get off; will take his wheelchair in case we have to wait long as he can't stand for more than 10 minutes or so without his legs giving out on him.


"RE: What does your voting location/booth look like?"
Posted by weltek on 11-06-12 at 05:19 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 05:19 PM (EST)

We vote in a town of about 600, at the town hall. It's about a 12x8 room. There is one electronic machine and three curtained booths. It's rare to have more than six people in line at one time.

I was surprised to see about 20 cars there this morning, so we decided to wait until after work, as we both had early meetings to get to.

ETA: There are never stickers.


-Handcrafted by RollDdice


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 12:08 PM
On the way to work now and will vote on the way. A blue vote in a blue state.



Capn2patch put me in motion!


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 01:38 PM
Waited in line over an hour and when I finally got to the table, the two poll workers argued for three minutes over whether I was voter #293 or #294. Finally voted and got to work.

"the govs"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 12:40 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 02:46 PM (EST)

Delaware - D. Markell i, R. Cragg

Indiana - D. Gregg, R. Pence, (R. Daniels retiring)

Missouri - D. Nixon i, R. Spence

Montana - D. Bullock, R. Hill, (D. Schweitzer retiring)

New Hampshire - D. Hassan, R. Lamontagne, (D. Lynch retiring)

North Carolina - D. Dalton, R. McCrory, (D. Perdue retiring)

North Dakota - D. Tyler, R. Dalrymple i

Utah - D. Cooke, R. Herbert i

Vermont - D. Shumlin i, R. Brock

Washington - D. Inslee, R. McKenna, (D. Gregoire retiring)

West Virginia - D. Tomblin i, R. Maloney, (rematch!)

edited to correct NC


"RE: the govs"
Posted by AyaK on 11-06-12 at 01:23 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 01:24 PM (EST)

I wish the Senate races were this easy. Really, there's only one of these in dispute, and I expect the Dems to steal win it (just like usual in Washington state; see Gregoire-Rossi).

Delaware - D. Markell i

Indiana - R. Pence

Missouri - D. Nixon i

Montana - R. Hill

New Hampshire - D. Hassan

North Carolina - R. McCrory

North Dakota - R. Dalrymple i

Utah - R. Herbert i

Vermont - D. Shumlin i

Washington - D. Insole

West Virginia - D. Tomblin i


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Puffy on 11-06-12 at 01:04 PM
We just returned from voting. All your posts of massive lines and waits made me nervous about timing issues. Not one single voter was there when we arrived. One neighbor showed up when I was voting so we chatted a little bit. When I asked about lines earlier this morning, the poll workers said, "Oh, we had people wait! At one time we had EIGHT people in line!"

Our polling place serves about 500 homes. Where we vote depends on the turnout expected. Usually we vote in someone's garage. When it's a smaller election, more precincts are combined so we vote at a school (which doesn't close down) or at a church (never had a problem with voting in a church).

I like to wait to vote until the day of the election. I'm wearing my "I voted" sticker. It's all about the sticker.



"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 01:14 PM
They've addressed the sticker issue here. I got a "I Voted Early" sticker to wear. It's bigger and rounder than the usual "I Voted" sticker.

"No Sticker for foonermint!"
Posted by foonermints on 11-06-12 at 01:23 PM
I checked the mail-in envelope. Nothing.

OK, so yours is bigger.


"Hopefully she voted bewteen the contractions"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 01:26 PM
Wouldn't want to accidentally hit the wrong button..

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Pregnant-Woman-Votes-En-Route-To-Hospital-177482731.html


"Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by AyaK on 11-06-12 at 01:51 PM
Here's how the campaigns see this race. You can look at these states as they come in and see which are different than expected to see who is winning and losing.

CONSENSUS:
Obama (19): California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Michigan, Washington, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Maryland, Oregon, Connecticut, Nevada, New Mexico, Maine, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Delaware, Vermont, District of Columbia. 223 electoral votes.
Romney (24): Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Indiana, Arizona, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah, Nebraska, West Virginia, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska. 206 electoral votes.

That leaves 8 states disputed, which each campaign at least hopes to win:

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado. 109 electoral votes.

The Obama campaign thinks Pennsylvania is a lock and that Florida and Colorado are stretches, but it thinks it can win them all.
The Romney campaign feels that Florida and Colorado are locks and that Pennsylvania is a stretch, but it thinks it can win them all.

We'll see.


"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 03:57 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 04:44 PM (EST)

Nate Silver (you know who he is) predicts a 313/225 outcome with Romney's chances of winning now at less than 10%. The telling part of the "poll of polls" table is all of the +% for Obama in the Change From Prior Poll column for almost all of the pollsters.

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado. 109 electoral votes.

Silver has (by state, and percentage odds of winning):

PA firmly Obama, 98.6%
WI firmly Obama, 96.7%
NH leaning Obama, 84.6%
IA leaning Obama, 84.3%
OH firmly Obama, 90.6%
VA leaning Obama, 79.4%
FL tossup Obama, 50.3%
CO leaning Obama, 79.7%

Add also NC leaning Romney, 74.4%

(eta)

After playing around with CNN's interactive electoral college vote tracker...

Romney would need to win NC-15 (leaning his way) and FL-29 (a toss up) to reach 246 electoral votes and then scoop up 24 more electoral votes out of the "leaning Obama" states (NH-4, IA-6, VA-13 and CO-9).

In this scenario, an electoral college vote tie is still possible with Romney also taking NH, IA and VA, losing CO, leaving both candidates with 269. Highly unlikely, but still within the realm of possibility.

If the race is that close, then Romney will have to ensure that Nebraska does not split its electors and award one to Obama as it did in 2008. Obama will have to ensure that Maine does not award an elector to Romney, as well. Maine and Nebraska are the only states to award electors based on the results in individual congressional districts.



"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by Round Robin on 11-06-12 at 05:27 PM
Nate Silver is as full of sh!t as a Thanksgiving turkey. He supposedly goes by the results of state by state polls without any effort to determine how accurate they are likely to be. All the national polls are very close, so to suggest that an Obama victory is a near certainty, as he does, is utterly absurd.

"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 06:12 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 06:26 PM (EST)

A little early for Thanksgiving, aren't we, hah! I prefer my bird to be stuffed with real stuffing, like my mom makes.

I tracked Nate Silver even before the last election in 2008 and there is definitely method to his madness in his attempt to create a more accurate predictive model. He relies on the results of multiple polls and then weighs them according to their own past predictive accuracy and consistency with other polls. He even shows us the stats for these multitude of polls and the changes in these pollster numbers from the previous poll. Obviously, as a statistician, more garbage in doesn't mean less garbage out, but he's able to differentiate between the garbage "outlier" polls from those that are more consistent and have a good track record, but he doesn't toss them out completely. Different polls have different sampling methods, different questions, different media, so it's to be expected that polls won't exactly match, or even be within their own sampling error ranges.

No, Nate Silver got 49 out of 50 states correct last election and while that's a hard act to follow (only a perfect prediction is better), I wouldn't be surprised if he got at least 45 states correct, possibly repeating the predictive feat of last election.

Out of a dozen polls, only two show Romney with a very slim popular vote advantage well within sampling error margins (a "dead heat") and Obama is running +2.0 to +4.0 in most of them. And all but one of these polls show Obama's numbers increasing since their last poll. Rasmussen Reports is the outlier here. And what matters is not the nationwide popular vote, it's the electoral college votes, where it's absolutely necessary to get state-level poll data.

And 90% (Obama's chance of winning) isn't near certainty, even statisticians aren't comfortable with that number when it comes to confidence levels.

Ever roll a 20-sided die playing fantasy games? Who knows, Romney might get lucky and roll a 7 or 11 (out of 20 on a single die). It happens.



"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by AyaK on 11-06-12 at 07:14 PM
I only have two words to say about Nate Silver:

Matt Wieters.


"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 08:37 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 04:10 AM (EST)

Never heard of the guy, had to look him up, and no, I don't follow baseball and baseball statistics, not in the least (unlike the NFL).

I found a good article that tied the two (Silver and Wieters) together that you might find interesting reading.

Yet, even highly sophisticated baseball models can still make mistakes if they rest on mistaken assumptions. Baseball Prospectus.com’s PECOTA player projection system – designed by Nate Silver and his colleagues at BP – is one of the best state-of-the-art systems in the business. But one of PECOTA’s more recent, well-known failures presents an object lesson. In 2009, PECOTA projected rookie Orioles catcher Matt Wieters to hit .311/.395/.546 (batting/on base percentage/slugging). As regular consumers of PECOTA know, this is just a probabilistic projection of his most likely performance, and the actual projection provided a range of possible outcomes. But the projection clearly was wrong, and not just unsuccessful. While Wieters has developed into a good player, nothing in his major league performance since has justfied such optimism: Wieters hit .288/.340/.412 as a rookie, and .260/.328/.421 over his first four major league seasons. What went wrong? ... By getting the baseline of the 2008 environment Wieters played in wrong, PECOTA got the projection wrong, a projection that was out of step with what other models were much more realistically projecting at the time. The sophistication of the PECOTA system was no match for two bad inputs in the historical data.

And, in context of this election, you probably agree with the article's author...

We can’t know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney’s advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.

We'll see if Rasmussen (and to some extent, Gallup) is indeed for real, or an outlier relative to the other dozen or so pollsters.


"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-07-12 at 00:27 AM
Nate Silver has been almost spot on all night.

"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 00:33 AM
Yup. I see only one potential miscall so far, with 49 out of 50 predictions possibly repeated. If anything, with so many states within 1%-3% actual voting margins, I think his biggest miscall is not having enough slightly leaning races, which is not surprising.

"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by Karchita on 11-07-12 at 04:07 AM
Yes, indeed he has. He is amazing.



"RE: Projections (to watch tonight)"
Posted by cahaya on 11-11-12 at 04:45 AM
And with this, at last days later, Obama's win in Florida, which Silver predicted as a very narrow toss-up in Obama's favor. Silver nails it, 50 for 50. Just wow.

Carving the turkey.


"Silver's projection results..."
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 10:03 AM
PA firmly Obama, 98.6%. Correct, with 5% margin.
WI firmly Obama, 96.7%. Correct, with 6% margin.
NH leaning Obama, 84.6%. Correct, with 5% margin.
IA leaning Obama, 84.3%. Correct, with 6% margin.
OH firmly Obama, 90.6%. Correct, but closer than projected with 2% margin.
VA leaning Obama, 79.4%. Correct, with 3% margin.
FL tossup Obama, 50.3%. Correct, still a toss up.
CO leaning Obama, 79.7%. Correct, with 4% margin.
Add also NC leaning Romney, 74.4%. Correct, with 3% margin.

Two words: Barack Obama.


"Yep"
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 10:48 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 10:50 AM (EST)

The fact that Obama ran the table on the toss-up states makes the outcome pretty clear, doesn't it?

One of the things that Mark Blumenthal had argued was that Pew is the best pollster out there and that its end count is as close to accurate of a poll as we can get.

Pew's final poll on Monday showed Obama winning 51%-48%, with undecideds breaking evenly.

They were off by about 1%. Blumenthal was right.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by samboohoo on 11-06-12 at 01:52 PM
Our schools are closed today. We use the schools here. I think we use a variety of buildings. I can remember voting in a church before. I think some people may even vote at the fire station? I can't remember now.

I had a parent/teacher conference and then went over to the high school after. There was a bit of a line, but the whole process took about 20 minutes. We had about 15 booths. We use pen and paper and bubble in like a scan-tron then feed it into one of two machines. I was Number 1022. I assume 1022 overall, but I wonder if it means 1022 at that machine. I went later than normal. I usually go before work, but since I'm off today I waited until about 11:30. It was starting to get more crowded as I left. Lunchtime I suppose.


Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie



"Romney continues to campaign in PA."
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 02:09 PM
'And I say my opponent's failure to do the same is just another indicator of how much he hates this country!'

"RE: Romney continues to campaign in PA."
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 02:40 PM
We'll know tomorrow if he is campaigning there because he'd like a higher Electorl tally or out of desperation as Ohio doesn't look winnable to his campaign any longer.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 02:42 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 02:43 PM (EST)

Just got back from voting. Song on the radio as I got there was, appropriately..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J01QPxZFlw4

A real feel good toe-tapper dancing song, with a great bass line, I'll give it a 98.

Anyway, hope my vote for Donnelly keeps Mourdock out of the Senate, and my neighbor Mann goes to Indy and maybe then I won't get his mail misdelivered here anymore. As for the governor's race, rather have Gregg but both candidates put forth forward-looking agenda's, and at least Pence is no longer part of the problem in DC. I mean, he can't be the same jerk as an administrator as he was as a legislator, can he?

Anyway, voted at a school but they never bother to close it. When we lived in Macomb we voted at a religious services building on campus.


"And It Begins"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 04:35 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 04:38 PM (EST)

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election-2012/poll-problems-cropping-places-country-article-1.1197447

I especially like: The Florida robocall glitch occurred in Pinellas County, location of St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Officials said the calls intended for Monday were wrongly recycled Tuesday, telling possibly thousands of voters they had until "7 p.m. tomorrow" to vote...

And on page 2 they get around to provisional ballots. Even though provisonal ballots basically end up not getting counted, it takes some time to not count them.

the judge overseeing the case planned a ruling before Nov. 17, when provisional ballots can begin to be counted in Ohio. Provisional ballots are used more often in Ohio than in most states, with experts predicting between 200,000 and 300,000 will be cast there.


"It's Over"
Posted by foonermints on 11-06-12 at 04:55 PM
Bob says Romney is a lead-pipe cinch.


Deviltry by CeeTooPee


"Add On?"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 05:01 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 05:04 PM (EST)

Almost 5 AST, polls closing in Puerto Rico. Will they vote for statehood? Never have before.

The referendum has two parts, is change in the wind anyway?

Part one of the question is whether to keep the relationship with the US as is or change. If change it goes to part two where the voting choices are

Statehood

Independence

Sovereign Free Association (basically a long process toward independence)


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Jims02 on 11-06-12 at 06:01 PM
I cast my overly-important Ohio vote today.

...Then I went home and threw up 4 times during the day. The weird thing is I didn't feel that lousy while waiting in line that morning. Just a little nauseous, but still functional.

I think my body hates democracy.


Or at least my body disapproves of the vote my brain made.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Max Headroom on 11-06-12 at 06:23 PM
I was in Ohio earlier today. Wish I could've voted there, instead of in Indiana where my vote was far, far less relevant for the presidential race.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 06:31 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 06:31 PM (EST)

But it's quite relevant, even crucial for the Senate race here, and it's crucial even in determining the future Senate majority. AyaK is understandably quite miffed at the Pub's blown opportunity here to secure a Senate seat, which should have been a no-brainer (apart from fielding a no-brain candidate).


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by AyaK on 11-06-12 at 07:04 PM
I agree. To be honest, despite my party affiliation, I'd rather not have Richard Mourdock in the Senate.

Indiana has had a reputation for serious, moderate senators for decades, dating back to Birch Bayh and continuing to the present. Sure, a few dopes have snuck in (see Quayle, Dan), but by and large, there haven't been too many Mourdocks. From 1998 to 2010, you had Evan Bayh and Richard Lugar.

Now you'll have Dan Coats and the winner of this race. Quite a drop.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by samboohoo on 11-06-12 at 08:06 PM
I don't know Max. NBC is showing Indiana to Romney. Wasn't it blue in 08?


Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie



"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 08:21 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 08:25 PM (EST)

Indiana is a red state, turning blue in '08 was an indicator that the McCain/Palin campaign was just that bad.

For all that, it was close in '08, we didn't know what the Indiana results were in the presidential race until the next day when we got up.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 09:01 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 09:06 PM (EST)

Yes, 2008 was a nail-biter, by less than 30,000 votes:

Democratic Barack Obama 1,374,039
Republican John McCain 1,345,648

Yeah, Indiana went red in '40 and voted blue only once -- in '64 (LBJ over "nuke 'em until they glow in the dark" Goldwater) -- until 2008.

(eta) And I still have a gold-foiled Goldwater mint-condition campaign matchbook that my mom gave me (as a seven year-older) to keep as a long-term souvenir of that election.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by kingfish on 11-06-12 at 07:31 PM
Voted this morning, have decided that the election process is just an excuse to get me into a church.

Found a lull where I could get parked, get thru a short checkin line, and out in about 20 minutes.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by foonermints on 11-06-12 at 08:11 PM
The Pope is watching, you know.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 08:10 PM
*waits for the exit poll results for the Middle-Aged Women Who Owns Chihuahuas And Have Raccoons Living Under The Porch category*

"San Francisco?"
Posted by foonermints on 11-06-12 at 08:41 PM
Not Venice, that's for sure.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by CTgirl on 11-06-12 at 08:55 PM
I just got back from voting - my entire town of 28,000 votes at the high school and it was like Field of Dreams driving in. I thought I'd be there forever. But the parking was the worst part, once we were in, I waited for two people in front of me to check in and then I got my ballot.

Two things made me wonder about fraud though:

1. Since we had just moved to this state, I registered to vote in MA by mail, totally anonymously. I was never asked to show any ID or proof of residency at the polls. In CT, you always have to show your license before you can vote. Anyone could walk in and say they were someone else and get a ballot.

2. They gave us the wrong precinct ballot. I didn't realize it because being newbies to town, I wasn't fully aware of the people running in the local elections. The electronic scanner machine spit it out and wouldn't take it. So this old lady marches us across the gym to the check-in table, grabs our old ballots and gives us new ones. She said she'd void it out but maybe this is the new way to vote early and vote often!


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by foonermints on 11-06-12 at 08:59 PM
I bet your piano could vote.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 08:59 PM
So far, every state has been called for Romney except Vermont.

Poor lonely Vermont.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 09:14 PM
In a blink of an eye, it's gone from 33-3 for Romney to 64-40 for Obama in the early calls. Florida (43% of the polls in so far), Ohio (8%) and Virginia (13%) are all still up in the air with Obama leading in FL/OH and Romney in VA at the moment.

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 09:19 PM
Maddow has it as 64 to 82 with Romney leading.

What I find interesting is that Romney is projected to have lost his home state. I guess they just didn't know who he was any more.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 09:27 PM
Not a surprise as Romney's going to chew up the mid-central states while the key battleground states are still very much up in the air. New York hasn't been called for Obama yet, so there's a big chunk of votes.

Currnet key battlegrounds tally, as of 8:25 pm:

OH - 20% - Obama 59%, Romney 41%
FL - 51% - Obama 50%, Romney 50% (only 6,500 votes separating these two after 4.3+ million counted)
VA - 22% - Romney 57%, Obama 42%


"Current battlegrounds tally as of 9:05 pm ET"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 10:06 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 10:10 PM (EST)

OH - 27% - Obama 55%, Romney 44%
FL - 72% - Obama 50%, Romney 49% (14,000+ difference out of 6.3 million votes)
VA - 38% - Romney 54%, Obama 45%

And with most of the Central time zone states now called, including Texas all the way up to Wyoming and the Dakotas, Romney currently leads in electoral college votes by a 152-123 margin. The three big battleground states above counts for 60 votes while we still have the west coast states counting for 74 votes (not incl. AK and HI).


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 10:09 PM
And let's not forget NC, too.

As of now, with...

71% in from FL, it's very close, Obama by less than 3,000 votes out of more than 6 million cast.

61% in from NC, it's also very close, Romney by less than 4,000 votes out of more then 2.5 million cast.

38% in from VA, Romney has a 9% edge, and if he keeps that up, it'll be called soon after half or more of the votes are in.

27% in from OH, Obama has an 11% edge, and if he keeps that up, it'll be called sometime after half or more of the votes are in.

Still not nearly enough votes in from PA (2%) or NH (11%) to have an idea how they will go.


"New Jersey: uncallable."
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 09:06 PM
Since portions of the voting system are apparently being held together by spit and bailing wire instead of the usual bribes and graft, the Not So Official Media Word is that the state may not be awarded to anyone until -- Friday.

Sorry 'bout that.


"precincts changed?"
Posted by jbug on 11-06-12 at 09:26 PM
Anyone have a problem going to your regular place to vote only to be told you have to go to a different place?

My aunt went to the school where we go - she has for years;
they told her she'd have to go to the next town over - about 12 miles west of us.
While I was there, another lady was told she had to go somewhere else. She was mad; carrying on that it was just a way to get people to give up and not vote.

I don't know why they have to change the lines for the precincts but when they do, shouldn't they notify those affected?

If I had gotten to the polls real early to get a first place in line, and waited a half hr or more (which I have done in the past); and was then told I had to go somewhere else....
I would have been mad.


"RE: precincts changed?"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 09:37 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 09:40 PM (EST)

Usually there is a way to check ahead of time, and I do think they have to publish the info somewhere but I don't know if they send a letter to everyone.

I dunno how much has to do with redistricting, but they way they gerrymander things I'm shocked more people don't end up in a different precinct every election cycle.

This looks like what I use in NC to check where to vote each time it comes around.

https://tnmap.tn.gov/voterlookup/


"RE: precincts changed?"
Posted by DearAbby on 11-06-12 at 09:43 PM
Your aunt should have gotten a new card in July. Did she vote in the August primary?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49679214

Voters' new registration cards were mailed in July, and Mullis-Morgan said there weren't too many problems in elections in the August state primary and county general elections. But election officials say the shifted lines are a "big concern" for Tuesday.

"We see people turn out for presidential elections who never vote any other time," said Allen.


"RE: precincts changed?"
Posted by Puffy on 11-07-12 at 01:09 AM
Our official sample ballot and voting instructions booklet that we mark and bring to the voting booth lists the address of our voting location. It varies, depending if it's a local election or a primary or Presidential election.

"BONG BONG BONGGGG"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 09:26 PM
Living here in one of the bellwether counties, in fact the bellwether county with the best track record in the country for predicting the results of presidential races, I've been following the local results as they came in. All 87 precincts have now reported. These aren't the final numbers that will be certified, as provisional ballots and absentee ballots have to be processed, but for the time being these are the numbers from Vigo.

(R) Mitt Romney (and Paul Ryan): 18312

(D) Barack Obama (and Joe Biden): 18474

(L) Gary Johnson (and James P. Gray): 711

49% Obama with a very slight lead over Romney at 49%. What's it mean? It's gonna be a long night, this could even be one of those elections where one side wins the popular vote while the other side wins the EC vote.



"RE: BONG BONG BONGGGG"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 10:45 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 10:50 PM (EST)

LOL

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/266275-obama-narrowly-wins-bellwether-indiana-county

The obviously don't know Vigo

Vigo County, Ind., a small county
well, smaller than Marion or Lake counties anyway

in the southeastern Indiana county
um, westcentral and bordering Illinois

culturally conservative, blue-collar county
actually, no, culturally diverse, got some institutions of higher edicashun hereabout just ask Larry Bird, birthplace of the coke bottle, home of Clabber Girl, etc and so on

Amazing how many things they just got so wrong.


"RE: BONG BONG BONGGGG"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 11:35 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 11:35 PM (EST)

Update, revised numbers as absentee ballots are processed.

(R) Mitt Romney (and Paul Ryan): 19229

(D) Barack Obama (and Joe Biden): 19553

(L) Gary Johnson (and James P. Gray): 762

Provisional ballot, all of which will probably not count anyway, have to await decisions that won't be made tonight.

There are probably very few of them anyway.


"CT Senate"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 10:00 PM
Chris Murphy(D) defeats Linda McMahon(R)


Capn2patch put me in motion!


"Currently projected as 114 -- 153 for GOP."
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 10:08 PM
The Republicans are projected to keep a very solid lock on the House. Lots of voter suppression story reviews coming out of Ohio. (By hook or by crook? Why not both?) Democrats potentially starting to get a bare grip on the Senate, but not in numbers which can prevent another 300+ GOP fillibusters.

So basically, no matter who wins, probably ain't nothin' gonna get done except by executive order. And those are always wrong as long as the other guy wrote them.


"Update as of 9:30 ET"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 10:38 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 10:45 PM (EST)

Battleground states:

CO - 47% - Obama 51-47
FL - 82% - Obama 50-49
IA - 0%
NV - 0%
NH - 16% - Obama 55-44
NC - 77% - Romney 51-48
OH - 38% - Obama 53-46
VA - 52% - Romney 51-47
WI - 4% - Romney 56-43

Thanks, cahaya! I've added in NC to the battlegrounds tally since there seems to be a dogfight there as well.


"GOP regains control of the House"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 10:40 PM
... according to CNN.

"RE: Update as of 9:30 ET"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 10:42 PM
And although NC wasn't identified as a battleground state, it's turning out to be one with 77% - Romney 51-48

"RE: Update as of 9:30 ET"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 10:56 PM
Most of the campaigning indicates NC was a battleground state. Obama took it in 2008. They certainly spent money here like it was a battleground state.

"10:00 pm ET update..."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 11:02 PM
Getting tight...

CO - 50% - Obama 51-48
FL - 85% - Obama 50-49
IA - 0%
NV - 0%
NH - 21% - Obama 54-43
NC - 83% - Romney 51-48
OH - 47% - Obama 51-47
VA - 62% - Romney 51-47
WI - 12% - Romney 53-46


"CNN currently projects..."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 11:05 PM
Barack Obama to be reelected as President.

"RE: Update as of 9:30 ET"
Posted by michel on 11-06-12 at 11:21 PM
From CBS:


CO - uncalled
FL - 1000 vote difference on about 7.5 Mil counted!
IA - Leaning Obama
NV - Leaning Obama
NH - Obama wins
NC - Romney leads
OH - Leaning Obama
VA - Romney leads
WI - Obama wins


"Brown Out, Warren In"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 10:42 PM
Democrats take the Mass Senate seat from Republicans

"RE: Brown Out, Warren In"
Posted by HobbsofMI on 11-07-12 at 00:33 AM
This makes it a really bad night for Ayak.


sig Syren, bouncy by IceCat, bobble head by Tribephyl, and snoglobe by agman


"Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-06-12 at 10:53 PM
Mourdock loses the seat

"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by dabo on 11-06-12 at 10:55 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwESraWEpSU

"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 11:20 PM
You said it! Yay! Mourdock-R, fails majorly for the discerning Hoosier voters (including me, dabo and I think Max too), with Donnelly-D in.

Meanwhile, Pence-R will take the Gov seat and Romney-R wins handily, following the Hoosier tradition of voting Pub for prez except in '64 and '08.


"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by Snidget on 11-06-12 at 11:38 PM
Thank you Indiana. I dunno if I could take 6 years of Mourdock out-takes from C-SPAN.

"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 11:45 PM
The initial numbers made it look closer to fails barely, and the final margin might still fall into the automatic recount zone. He didn't alienate most of his voter base. We're at the point where he could have been drinking a baby's blood at a press conference and he's still the Republican in the race, so what's one baby? At least he let that baby be born before he ate it!

I'm not calling this one for the Democrats until the paperwork stops flying.


"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 00:03 AM
Yes, it's close, but probably not within recount territory (but I wouldn't be surprised a ton of TP money is poured into getting a recount in some districts). Considering the state voted solidly Pub for prez and gov, it's a major fail for the Pubs to lose the Senate seat once held by Lugar, one of the dying breed of moderate aisle-crossing Pubs.

"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by dabo on 11-07-12 at 00:12 AM
We should probably add up the numbers to find out how many people who voted in Indiana simply did not cast a vote in the Senate race. That may be the biggest factor that made the difference, that Republicans who vote straight tickets, no way they vote for anyone else, and conservative independents simply withheld their vote when it came to Mourdock.

Fun for another day.


"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 01:57 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 02:02 PM (EST)

Following up about your comment about the numbers, this tells the story...

Romney: 1,408,008
Obama: 1,135,556

Donnelly: 1,263,138
Mourdock: 1,123,137

This means that 157,289 voters who (most likely) chose a President didn't vote for a Senate candidate.

And 140,001 voters who didn't vote for Obama (most likely voted for Romney instead) voted for Donnelly.

It's possible these numbers aren't exact because it's possible for people to choose to vote for Senate but not for President.

It's clear that some people simply didn't choose a Senate candidate and it's clear that some people voted across party lines to get rid of Mourdock.


"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 02:05 PM
Talk about voting with your feet... so we're looking at people who couldn't bring themselves to go that far to the right, but also couldn't shift even an inch towards the left. In this case, that's a saving number -- but it's also a scary one. We're looking at the Never Compromise faction.

"RE: Donnelly projected to win IND"
Posted by Max Headroom on 11-07-12 at 11:18 PM
it's clear that some people voted across party lines to get rid of Mourdock.

*raises hand*

The only Democrat who got my vote this election was Joe Donnelly. I should've voted for Tony Bennett's opponent too, but enough other Indiana voters covered me for that mistake.


"Voted and was able to buy a case of beer."
Posted by VisionQuest on 11-06-12 at 11:09 PM
so I have that going for me.

"Let me say it first!"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 11:40 PM
Recount!

(I wish that was a joke. I think we're going to get calls for it in several states, and there's a few where the margin will make it mandatory. Waterboard the numbers until they confess.)


"RE: Let me say it first!"
Posted by cahaya on 11-06-12 at 11:43 PM
Yes, we're looking at serious recount potential in FL (oh, gawd, not again), VA, NC and possibly even OH. And those are just the ones with 2/3 of the votes already in.

"RE: Let me say it first!"
Posted by Estee on 11-06-12 at 11:48 PM
And then it comes down to who can lose the most ballots and the total number of judges willing to stay bought.

Or in other words: Congratulations, President Romney.


"RE: Let me say it first!"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 00:14 AM
Oh, not so fast, there's a precedent for the Supremes to play a song for the political dance.

"10:45 pm update..."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-06-12 at 11:45 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-12 AT 11:47 PM (EST)

CO - 65% - Obama 51-47
FL - 88% - Obama 50-49
IA - 31% - Obama 57-42
NV - 0%
NH - OBAMA WIN
NC - 95% - Romney 50-49
OH - 64% - Obama 50-48
VA - 75% - Romney 50-49
WI - 29% - Romney 51-48

Sheesh, just look at how close they all are, and it's still early in Iowa, give it time to tighten up like all of the other battlegrounds.


"Latest update ... 11:20 pm ET"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-07-12 at 00:18 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 00:20 AM (EST)

Obama 274, Romney 201 ... CNN projects Obama win for the Presidency

CO - 68% - Obama 51-47
FL - 90% - Obama 50-49
IA - Obama win
NV - 1% - Romney 64-34
NC - Romney win
OH - Obama win
VA - 78% - Romney 50-49
WI - Obama win


"Switching coverage."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 00:09 AM
Daily Show

The facts were starting to gang up.


"RE: Switching coverage."
Posted by Snidget on 11-07-12 at 07:44 AM
So, will you let me move to "That's Not Funny, Jon"?

"RE: Switching coverage."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 08:16 AM
I wasn't aware I was blocking you.


"No caffeine permitted."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 00:15 AM
Perhaps in the spirit of Romney's faith, the Tea Party is getting its rear kicked. GOP candidates are holding the House, but a number of Toilet Paper extremists are losing their races. As Jon Stewart just noted, Todd Akin has now been, in his words, 'legitimately raped'. And he's not the only TP suffering a bad case of paper layer failure. There's a lot of crap dropping out tonight. And they will respond by? Getting larger and smellier pieces of crap, then sending them out in two years.

Maybe they should secede. I hear Cuba's nice this time of year.


"RE: No caffeine permitted."
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 00:46 AM
Cuba?

The TP's should have expatriated to Puerto Rico, dumped their hundreds of millions of dollars of political money there, passed the PR ballot for independence, and created a nation-state of their own in a tropical and heavenly New World paradise.

Igniting the terrorist PR Liberation Front in an incessant battle of indigenous peoples versus the religiously chauvinist moneyed immigrants.


"RE: No caffeine permitted."
Posted by Tummy on 11-07-12 at 11:27 AM
Don't do that to Puerto Rico! PR is beautiful, it would be a shame to TP it.

"It's Over"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-07-12 at 00:19 AM
President Obama is re-elected

"RE: It's Over"
Posted by Brownroach on 11-07-12 at 00:28 AM
At present it looks like Romney won the popular vote by a million or so. Commentators are saying an incumbent has not previously been reelected while losing the popular vote (have no idea if that fact is correct).

"RE: It's Over"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-07-12 at 00:31 AM
Romney and Al Gore can go commiserate about that over a few beers at a local pub.

"RE: It's Over"
Posted by byoffer on 11-07-12 at 00:31 AM
I guess the key is "incumbent", because didn't GW Bush lose the popular vote in his first election? Then again, some will argue he didn't actually win the election!

"RE: It's Over"
Posted by Brownroach on 11-07-12 at 00:52 AM
Yes, on that occasion W wasn't incumbent, he was in-coming. (And now I am remembering, unfortunately, the overgenerously-applied lipstick of FL Secretary of State Katherine Harris -- I think that was her name, I'm too lazy to look it up.)

"RE: It's Over"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-07-12 at 00:37 AM
California's only got about 20 percent of their votes in so far, so it could still end up being in favour of Obama overall for the popular vote. He's just 220,000 votes behind Romney at the moment with 63 percent of the nation accounted for.

"RE: It's Over"
Posted by dabo on 11-07-12 at 01:24 AM
Even if he edges ahead of Romney in the popular vote, Obama could still end up a minority president by not reaching 50% of the popular vote, factoring in Johnson and other third party candidates. Lincoln 1860 was a minority president.

"Popular Vote"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-07-12 at 09:25 AM
Looks like Obama will also win the popular vote with about 50%.

"RE: Popular Vote"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 09:32 AM
That just means Donald now wants his people to kill the majority of the country.

"RE: Popular Vote"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 10:20 AM
Yes, at the moment, it appears that Obama took the popular vote with about a 2.63 million vote margin out of 118.63 million votes cast.

"RE: It's Over"
Posted by mrc on 11-07-12 at 10:10 AM
The 1800s witnessed a number of minority presidents.

A Slice of Manga


"Not yet."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 00:30 AM
Romney has to concede. And that? Could take a while.

Should the President win, then Jon Stewart summed it up well: two years, billions of dollars, same #$%^ing place we were in when this started. The GOP will make it their mission to see any second term fail and hope to ride the ashes in 2016. No legislation will pass. Nothing will get done. And the economy will recover or fail on its own.

On the other hand, four years of nothing happening in D.C. could be the best news this country ever had.


"RE: Not yet."
Posted by Brownroach on 11-07-12 at 00:37 AM
Chris Christie should be happy. Now he needs to work on a weight-loss regimen in time for 2016.

"He's already lost."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 08:22 AM
Don't forget: he committed the ultimate sin. He reached across the aisle in a time of need and openly thanked those who gave him aid. He put people ahead of party. And there will be a hard core who will never forgive him for that.

However (and I'm serious about this), the SOB came that much closer to picking up my vote. I still don't like some of his politics. But he's proven that in the battle of his state versus his career, the state comes first. That's rare enough that I just might want to keep it.


"RE: He's already lost."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-07-12 at 08:28 AM
Agree. I never cared all that much for Christie before the storm, but the way he spoke and the way he was able to work with Obama while putting partisanship aside, that really made me take notice.

Hopefully the same bipartisan spirit rules the day over the next four years as we all really need to quit throwing up roadblocks and other crap simply because the other person is on the other side of the political spectrum ... let's just get the right bills and right laws passed to make all of our lives better. In Canada, some of the most productive sessions of Parliament came about because of a minority government requiring two sides to work together to get things done.

I'll be disappointed if the Republicans decide to stick it (so to speak) to Obama and the Democrats by not getting anything done in Congress.


"RE: He's already lost."
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 10:30 AM
in Massachusetts, Scott Brown, who was a Republican who voted with the Democrats often enough that the Tea Party had turned on him, lost to one of the most partisan, polarizing figures in the country, Elizabeth Warren, whose idea of compromise is "do it my way."

And you have hopes that things are going to improve in Washington? When you have a President who rammed through Obamacare on a straight party-line vote (60-40) and incoming senators like Warren, while losing senators like Lugar? You have to be kidding.


"Hate to say it, but..."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 11:35 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 11:38 AM (EST)

...agreed. We're in for at least two more years of gridlock and more likely four. The only way anything gets done in the current climate is for one party to control legislative and executive simultaneously. Anything else is Induce Failure For Future Profit.

ETA: And you're providing support for my belief that Christie's lost part of his party. I'm not sure he can get it back.


"RE: He's already lost."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-07-12 at 12:17 PM
You're absolutely correct about that, but I've never seen a more divisive country and it's time for the folks in Washington to find a way to work together for the betterment of the country.

"RE: He's already lost."
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 12:26 PM
It's also time for there to be world peace and universal respect for human rights throughout the world.

But look at the landscape. Not only are governments like Iran and North Korea not going anywhere, but moderates like Olympia Snowe, Scott Brown, Ben Nelson, Richard Lugar and Kay Bailey Hutchinson will all LEAVE the Senate at the end of this term, while radicals like Elizabeth Warren and Ted Cruz will join.

Frankly, we have more hope of resolving the fiscal cliff (for at least two more years) in the lame-duck session than we do in January.


"RE: He's already lost."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 12:27 PM
Last night's Daily Show skit with a holographic George Washington suggested the country was on the verge of civil war. George was just thankful it had taken this long.

Jon didn't have the heart to tell him.

He took the slave vs. merman race badly enough.


"RE: Not yet."
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 00:39 AM
No kidding, we're in for another four years of a do-nothing Congress, with the previous Congress being the least productive (in terms of bills passed vs bills proposed) in decades.

2016, however, looks real murky in light (or lack of it) of this election, with the current trend in political polarization.


"RE: Not yet."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 00:44 AM
It could theoretically be two years, but America would have to be supremely pissed off to swing the House to the Democrats. Just too many seats needing to change rears in one shot.

"RE: Not yet."
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 02:28 PM
Or, considering that there are 20 Democratic seats up for grabs to only 13 Republican ones, voters could make the Senate Republican in 2014. That is, providing the Republicans don't run any more Angle-O'Donnell-Buck-Mourdock-Akin types, which seems unlikely going by the track record.

"Colbert's watchwords."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 00:51 AM
1. Impeach!
2. We lost because we weren't conservative enough!
3. Why did we ever nominate a stinking Masshole moderate!
4. *sobbing*

"Legalized it."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 00:59 AM
If the current voting percentages hold, then by sunrise tomorrow, recreational marijuana will be crime-free in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington.

That'll create a few jobs in and of itself. Mostly in rehab centers.


"RE: Legalized it."
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 01:11 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 01:47 AM (EST)

Most of the provisions include taxation that will cover drug education and rehab, with a percentage of taxation dedicated toward the purpose.

I'm kind of surprised, given that the Netherlands is already tightening up their tourist "coffee shop" trade to locals and neighboring countries (effective by the end of this year), with required cards and ID. The EU as a whole hasn't been too pleased with Dutch laxity with soft recreational drugs, although tourists love it.

This is going to pit the US states against the Feds quite directly and it may well come down to court cases, possibly at the SCOTUS level, to determine who has the authority to criminalize or legalize taxed recreational/medical drug use.

(eta) I'm in favor of legalization, simply because of the economics of supply and demand. People will demand it, legally or illegally. I think it's better the cash go into the coffers of legal suppliers and taxation entities than into the armed Cartel coffers with growers cultivating tons and tons of illegal crops on American soil within national forests and other areas that cannot be effectively policed.


"RE: Legalized it."
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 11:52 AM
>This is going to pit the US states against the Feds
>quite directly and it may well come down to court
>cases, possibly at the SCOTUS level, to determine who has
>the authority to criminalize or
>legalize taxed recreational/medical drug use.

SCOTUS has already decided this issue in favor of the Feds. See Gonzalez v. Raich.


"RE: Legalized it."
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 12:28 PM
Yes, but will SCOTUS revisit it if it comes to them again? I have to agree with the dissenting opinion, in particular Thomas, that invoking the interstate commerce clause was a bit of a stretch.

"The Ryan Effect."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 01:06 AM
So the state which proudly gave us the man dubbed Mr. Right:

A. Went into the Democrat column for the presidential race.
B. Elected a Democrat senator.
B1. Who happened to be an open lesbian.

I smell a backlash.


"RE: The Ryan Effect."
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 01:16 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 01:16 AM (EST)

Dammit, it's about people forgetting what those Judeo-Christian Western Civilization values are.


"RE: The Ryan Effect."
Posted by Karchita on 11-07-12 at 04:19 AM
I heard that even his own county, where his family has been prominent for generations, voted for Obama. Awkward!

His district did re-elect him to the House.


"The L.A. mandatory condom law."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 01:24 AM
I started a thread on this when it was first proposed: condom use on all adult film sets, enforced by random inspection on up. It's on the ballot. If it passes, I expect a huge number of lawsuits and a mass relocation to San Diego, along with the happy declaration of Freedom @#$%s.

I do expect it to pass. Puritans, y'know.


"RE: The L.A. mandatory condom law."
Posted by dabo on 11-07-12 at 01:26 AM
I predict long lines of applicants to be inspectors.

"RE: The L.A. mandatory condom law."
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 01:35 AM
And we need video camera evidence, lots of it.

"Gay Marriage"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-07-12 at 01:51 AM
It's early and not official but it looks like all four marriage equality referendums have passed.

"RE: Gay Marriage"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 02:05 AM
It's an interesting referendum election with these projections so far...

Same-sex marriage: MA yes, MD yes, MN ban split, WA yes.

Limit Obamacare: AL yes, FL yes, MO yes, WY yes.

Legalize marijuana: AK medical no, CO recreational yes, MA medical yes, MT ban yes, OR recreational no, WA recreational yes.

Death penalty ban: CA yes.

Public funds for abortion: FL no.


"RE: Gay Marriage"
Posted by dabo on 11-07-12 at 02:16 AM
About time. One thing I was disappointed about (among many) was that Obama/Biden never made it clear their support of gay marriage was about the legal contract of marriage, an actual government concern, which has nothing to do with the abstract religeous issue of the covenant of marriage.

"RE: Gay Marriage"
Posted by Brownroach on 11-07-12 at 03:09 AM
MA? You mean ME. (MA is Massachusetts, where gay marriage has been legal for quite some time. Yes ME is a stupid abbreviation for Maine, but there are just too many M states.)

"RE: Gay Marriage"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 03:27 AM
Dear sir, I do stand corrected in the state abbreviations. Hah, those arbitrarily defined two-character US postal service codes for states!

*laugh*

Thanks!


"And the best part?"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 08:19 AM
Clearly Todd Akin's deity wanted this to happen.

"RE: And the best part?"
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 12:32 PM
As you may remember, I was sure that the MO Republican Party would get him out of the race. I was wrong.

If he recognized this as God wanting him to lose because he didn't withdraw, that would probably be a net benefit. But he won't.


"Self-education is bad."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 12:41 PM
I saw a video link to his concession speech on CNN with the title of 'God Makes No Mistakes'. I think it's safe to say he didn't learn a thing.

I didn't watch it, but if you want to risk the nausea...

http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_rr_7#/video/politics/2012/11/07/election-mo-sot-akin-concession-speech.cnn


"Mitt Concedes"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-07-12 at 01:55 AM
And congratulates President Obama

"RE: Mitt Concedes"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 02:23 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 02:39 AM (EST)

Yup, and the way he said it, it seems like he saw it coming, too.

With due respect, I didn't vote for him, but I also don't think he is a such a bad guy that he was unfit for presidency. I think his intentions were for what he thought was for good, although I disagreed with him in many positions. He was a bit of a chameleon, delivering the message he thought people wanted to hear to vote for him. Ryan was much worse in this respect, and although I weighed in Ryan's economic experience, his political savvy was completely lacking.

Romney put up a good fight. I find it unfortunate, however, that the likes of Carl Rove appeared on Fox election coverage due to the proliferate amounts of cash (hundreds of millions) that he personally organized into the Pub campaign, including the campaign that KO'ed Indiana's beloved incumbent Pub senator (Lugar) in the primaries, only for the seat to fall to the Dems as a result.


"RE: Mitt Concedes"
Posted by Tummy on 11-07-12 at 11:47 AM
I honestly think part of the GOP's problem in the last two elections has been their choice of VP running mate.

Palin was a joke and Ryan scared the hell out of a lot of people. He was one of the bigger turn offs for me. And while most people understand a VP doesn't do much it kind of shows where the party wants to lead you, and there's always that chance that he will step into the President's shoes.

The Latino vote is going to be even bigger in 4 years, the GOP better start thinking about that.


"Running mate?"
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 01:22 PM
Perhaps, but there is no question that the GW Bush influence still played a role in this election.

The electorate in 2004 reported being split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, 35% each. The electorate in 2008 reported being 7% more Democratic, 39%-32%. Against Republican expectations, the electorate this time reported being 6% more Democratic, 38%-32%.


"Past one in the morning..."
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 02:41 AM
Obama's victory speech. Respectful, thankful, hopeful, still grounded in the realities of American politics.

"RE: Past one in the morning..."
Posted by Karchita on 11-07-12 at 04:22 AM
Oh yeah, that was very nice. Worth the wait.

"Experience with U.S. Democrats..."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-07-12 at 06:49 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 07:02 AM (EST)

n/m... moved


"Donald calls for the mass shooting of Democrats."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 08:43 AM
His post-election tweet, and I quote:

"He lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election. We should have a revolution in this country!"

So basically, he's moving into weapons sales.

Huckabee tweeted on a 47% basis -- saying this just proves people are dependent on government. They sure aren't dependent on information.


"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by Molaholic on 11-07-12 at 10:55 AM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 11:26 AM (EST)

Today's 3,958th bit of election trivia...

This marks only the second time we've had three consecutive two-term presidencies, the other being Jefferson-Madison-Monroe (1801-1825). However, only one president (Monroe) had the same VP (Daniel Tompkins) for both terms.


"51st state?"
Posted by dabo on 11-07-12 at 01:09 PM
If I'm reading it right, and according to Wikipedia. (News coverage on this last night, even on the web, was amazingly vacuuous.)

Question 1: Do you agree to maintain current territorial political status?
No 934,238 53.99%
Yes 796,007 46.01%

Question 2: Status options
Statehood 802,179 61.15%
Associated free state 436,997 33.31%
Independence 72,551 5.53%


"Correct"
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 01:17 PM
Those results are correct. Current plans are that Republicans will introduce legislation in Congress for Puerto Rico to be admitted as the 51st state.

"First two words to mind:"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 01:28 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-07-12 AT 01:32 PM (EST)

About time.

(Oh, darn: the GOP will have to ask a bunch of mostly-non-Caucasians if they want to become Americans. That'll be fun to watch.)

This hasn't happened in my current lifetime, so there's a bunch of questions associated with it. Since this is an election thread, immediate and foremost are:

1. Representation. Let's say they go in. They immediately get two Senators of their very own. A certain number of Representatives have to be assigned to them based on population. How long do they have for elections and seat claiming? Can't have a state without a presence in Congress.

2. Citizenship. Everyone born in PR from that point on would be automatically now eligible to run for President? How about those already living? Does that kick in as soon as they join?

3. Power shifts. What way does PR normally run, conservative or liberal? Obviously the House can't be affected right now, bu the Senate could come closer to the edge.


"Quick answers"
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 02:16 PM
>1. Representation. Let's say they go in. They
>immediately get two Senators of their very own. A
>certain number of Representatives have to be assigned to them
>based on population. How long do they have for
>elections and seat claiming? Can't have a state without
>a presence in Congress.

When Alaska and Hawaii were added, the bill that added them provided that each would get two senators and one representative until the next apportionment of representatives by Congress. Thus, the House was actually at 437 from 1959 until 1962. In this case, Puerto Rico will probably end up with four representatives, so I'd expect Congress to approve a hike in membership to 439 until after the 2020 census and reapportionment.

>2. Citizenship. Everyone born in PR from that point
>on would be automatically now eligible to run for President?
> How about those already living? Does that kick
>in as soon as they join?

Actually, this is incorrect. Under current U.S. law, everyone born in PR since 1917 is a US citizen and thus could run for president. They just can't vote for president, unless they live in a state or in DC. So the only change that comes around as part of this is the change in federal voting; citizenship is not affected.

>3. Power shifts. What way does PR normally run,
>conservative or liberal? Obviously the House can't be affected
>right now, bu the Senate could come closer to the edge.

This is almost impossible to predict, because neither the Democratic nor the Republican Party has any presence in Puerto Rico. Instead, the two political parties in PR are the PNP (New Progressive Party) and the PPD (Popular Democratic Party), with the PIP (Puerto Rican Independence Party) a poor third.

However, the governor and current leader of the PNP, who led the statehood drive, is an active Republican. His successor as PR's nonvoting representative to Congress is also a member of the PNP but is a Democrat. They are widely seen as the two most influential figures in PR politics if the statehood drive succeeds.

Remember that Hawaii was expected to become a Republican state and Alaska was expected to become a Democratic one, and you can see how difficult projections as to PR's future politics become.


"RE: Quick answers"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 02:22 PM
Thankee. I messed up on #2 -- I haven't thought about what 'commonwealth' means in U.S. political terms for a few beyond-school years.

So if the move to statehood goes forward, both parties are going to be establishing assimilation beachheads at warp. The entertainment will continue.


"RE: Quick answers"
Posted by Karchita on 11-07-12 at 04:45 PM
Alaska was Democratic in its early years. It became much more conservative during and after the pipeline building years when so many Texan and Louisianan oil workers arrived. There were a few other factors, too, but the point is that the prediction that AK would be Dem was correct given the info available at the time.

"RE: First two words to mind:"
Posted by dabo on 11-07-12 at 02:19 PM
They now have to establish state borders (not really an issue) and come up with a state constitution and submit it to Congress for ratification. Congress can make special demands, as when Utah vied for statehood they had to include a provision in their state constitution outlawing polygamy, so we can expect the English as national language people to pop up and make some noise and drag out the process.

Puerto Ricans were already citizens of the US anyway.

The national parties (Democratic, Libertarian, Republican, etc.) don't actually have much presense in Puerto Rico as things currently stand, the commonwealth has its own unique political parties for local and commonwealth elections. The main parties will now attempt to absorb those Puerto Rican parties, how it will turn out is unknowable at this point.

When a change in Congress will occur is unknowable at this point as well, as this is a process. It could occur soon, with special elections, or drag out until the 2014 elections.

Wait and see.


"RE: First two words to mind:"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 02:27 PM
I could definitely go with that flag.

Thanks for the additional information. I would be deeply amused by PR declaring state borders to be a few miles out into the ocean. I will be less happy when special interests show up and demand for gay marriage bans to be written into the state constitution from the start -- the first such opportunity to do so.

For some reason, I kept thinking 'citizens in all but 'I can run for'.'

It's a Very Special Election Night, only on FOX!


"RE: First two words to mind:"
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 02:36 PM
Congress establishes the state borders, such as this fun provision in the Hawaii Statehood Admissions Act of 1959, which I've had occasion to consider:

§ 2.

The State of Hawaii shall consist of all the islands, together with their appurtenant reefs and territorial waters, included in the Territory of Hawaii on the date of enactment of this Act, except the atoll known as Palmyra Island, together with its appurtenant reefs and territorial waters, but said State shall not be deemed to include the Midway Islands, Johnston Island, Sand Island (off-shore from Johnston Island), or Kingman Reef, together with their appurtenant reefs and territorial waters.


"RE: First two words to mind:"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 02:40 PM
Let me guess. Someone in Congress had vacation homes and/or offshore banks.

"RE: First two words to mind:"
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 03:01 PM
No, it was for a nonprofit, The Nature Conservancy.

Palmyra Island is unique; it's the only incorporated unorganized territory in the US, and the only people who live there work for the U.S. government or The Nature Conservancy (because, along with all of the other islands listed except Midway, it's also part of a national wildlife refuge that was set up after the Navy closed its bases there).

The Nature Conservancy conveyed land that it owned on the island to the U.S. government, but there was no clean way to do that, as there is no Act of Congress that ratified Palmyra's unique status after it was pulled out of the Territory of Hawaii by this act. Thus, it was incorporated as part of the Territory of Hawaii, but left unorganized as a result of the Hawaii Statehood Admission Act.


"RE: First two words to mind:"
Posted by dabo on 11-07-12 at 05:26 PM
I like that flag design a lot. Unfortunately, that one is just one that was created for use by the Puerto Rican statehood movement. The actual planned 51-star flag which has been in place for some time now goes with the traditional stars in rows.



"RE: 51st state?"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 01:17 PM
CNN carried a story on this vote.

Puerto Ricans were asked about their desires in two parts. First, by a 54% to 46% margin, voters rejected their current status as a U.S. commonwealth. In a separate question, 61% chose statehood as the alternative, compared with 33% for the semi-autonomous "sovereign free association" and 6% for outright independence.

The referendum is nonbinding, but it compels lawmakers in Washington to act, he {Puerto Rico Secretary of State Kenneth McClintock} said. "The people are withdrawing their consent to be governed the way they are governed," McClintock said, citing the Declaration of Independence, which states that a government's power comes from the consent of those governed. "Congress will have to address this and will have to pay attention," he said.


"Karl Rove loses it, live!"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 01:20 PM
Portrait of a demon in denial.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/fox-news-argues-obama-ohio_n_2085817.html

Screwtape: The Video.


"RE: Karl Rove loses it, live!"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 01:36 PM
*laugh* I just saw this online too.

Interestingly enough, it shows up in Time's Entertainment section!

For someone who handles so much money, you'd think he'd be good at arithmetic.


"RE: Karl Rove loses it, live!"
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 01:47 PM
Interestingly enough, it shows up in Time's Entertainment section!

Were you not entertained?


"RE: Karl Rove loses it, live!"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 01:49 PM
Priceless.

"RE: Karl Rove loses it, live!"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 02:10 PM
You might like this, which dates back to the Bush days.

Rovekill!


"RE: Karl Rove loses it, live!"
Posted by Sagebrush Dan on 11-07-12 at 01:52 PM
Rats. Now I have to take another bath.

"Election"
Posted by cahaya on 11-07-12 at 01:33 PM
Swoop block!

"RE: ECST: Election Day - November 6, 2012"
Posted by MNgirl on 11-07-12 at 01:34 PM
I'm always late to the party, but we voted around 3:30 when DH got home from work and the wait was about 5-10 mins. When we got our ballots all the booths were full, so we just sat at a table and filled them out.

Our location was the Methodist Church. It was last time too, but it changes all the time. We've voted at City Hall and the primary school in the past.

DD voted for the very first time (she was so proud, lol), but because she's at school and was registered under our home address, had to stand in line with a ton of other college kids to re-register. Took about an hour and a half or so total.


I have to say, I'm pretty happy with the election results overall. Had some big ones locally, too. I'm most proud of my state for voting "no" on the marriage amendment. I knew it was a done deal in the Twin Cities area, but I thought the rural areas would be overwhelmingly "yes". But it didn't pass so, yay us!



"A note on Linda McMahon."
Posted by Estee on 11-07-12 at 08:50 PM
Charlton Heston, invited to charioteer for real, replied with "Sorry, but in order to protect my perfect record, I only compete in fixed races." A WWE executive might do well to keep that in mind. This is the second time she's gone into an event where she couldn't personally script the results, and she's failed in both. Some people are projecting the cost to the family fortune at a hundred million and even if you have it to spend, paying it out and getting nothing back has to sting a bit.

As long as she can type up her own ending, she and her family are unbeatable. Get out into the real world and the numbers just don't work out.


"But she's rare, a rich person . . ."
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 09:10 PM
. . . who didn't vote for Obama. I guess she joins Romney in that rarified group.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-wins-8-10-wealthiest-154837437.html


"Libertarian = Republican ?"
Posted by AyaK on 11-07-12 at 10:13 PM
Ronald Reagan was fundamentally a libertarian. Remember Reagan's campaign against mandatory motorcycle helmets? One of the few issues where Reagan didn't support a libertarian approach was the foolish, ill-fated "War on Drugs." But there wasn't any question where Reagan stood. As a result, the Reagan coalition was largely built around an influx of small-government libertarians into the Republican Party.

At the same time, Reagan himself was personally very moral. One of the movements at the time was Jerry Falwell's "Moral Majority." In 1976, many Christian believers supported Jimmy Carter, who professed a deep faith himself. But after Reagan won, the Moral Majority sided with him.

Unlike most libertarians, Reagan also believed in a strong national defense, something that played well with those of us who mistrusted the Soviet Union ever since it rolled tanks in Czechoslovakia to crush the Prague Spring of 1968. Thus, Reagan achieved a real coalition: libertarians, social conservatives, and defense hawks.

The coalition lasted for a long time. But it doesn't work any longer, as this election showed.

Four years ago, it seemed that the social conservatives might have lost their hold on the Republican Party. Top candidates for the White House included Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain. But Giuliani and Thompson imploded, and the runner-up to McCain in the primary was the creationist Mike Huckabee. Perhaps that should have led us to question the coalition. But McCain's defeat seemed preordained, and anyway, to this day you won't find too many people who think McCain would have been a good president.

This election is different. I'm convinced that Romney was the president America needed: competent, unlike the incompetent Obama; pragmatic, unlike the ideologue Obama; caring, unlike the aloof Obama. But the American people rejected him. In my life, he's the first losing candidate that I supported whom I think would have made a good president (the others being McGovern, Dukakis and McCain).

Social conservatives are free to rail that Romney wasn't really a social conservative. They're right; he wasn't. The real Romney was on display in his Senate race against Ted Kennedy, when he said that he had never supported the Reagan-Bush agenda -- which is why Romney couldn't really make an intellectual case for Republican ideas. But he shouldn't have had to. The fact that he did have to doesn't mean that American has become corrupted with greedy people living off government handouts. It means that, taken as a whole, the Republican message has become corrupted by social conservatism in the minds of Americans because of the intermix of fools like Todd Akin and Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum into the message.

So how do we take it back? First, we need people pushing back from a libertarian standpoint. There are plenty of Republican Libertarians, which in fact incorporates most prominent Republicans. But it's never been the dominant group at, say, Fox News Channel, which has been a hangout for haters like Glenn Beck, Mike Huckabee and Karl Rove.

For all the vitriol they've received from leftist Democrats, the Koch Brothers are the most prominent funders of Republican libertarian ideas. We need a place where Republican libertarianism can thrive. Where will it be?

Working on that.


"RE: Libertarian = Republican ?"
Posted by Karchita on 11-08-12 at 01:44 PM
I don't agree with much, if anything, in your post except that, yes, the Republican party has a terrible problem. Years ago they climbed into bed with the fundamental religious extremists and now they may have to gnaw their arm off to get away. Good luck. It's not a new problem and it's not like you weren't warned.

“Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the party, and they’re sure trying to do so, it’s going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can’t and won’t compromise. I know, I’ve tried to deal with them.”

~Barry Goldwater



"RE: Libertarian = Republican ?"
Posted by AyaK on 11-11-12 at 03:22 AM
The fact that you agree with little in my post is consistent with my refusal to ever again become a part of a party controlled by leftists, which makes snidget's vision of party realignment (from the other thread) impossible.

"RE: Libertarian = Republican ?"
Posted by Karchita on 11-12-12 at 04:04 PM
Not quite ready to gnaw your arm off? Ok, fine with me. But I see a lot more losses like last week in your future.

I wouldn't think that this would have to be pointed out to any Republican given the shellacking you have just received, but it isn't the Democratic Party that is desperate for new members or needs to change to survive. It is the weaker party that will split. It is the Repubs who will have to decide how to respond to this loss and make changes accordingly.

I see the Tea Party/Religious Extremists leaving the Republican Party and forming a far right, mostly regional, social conservative party. Moderate Republicans will join the Democrats, as many already have. Those who remain Republican and reject both the Democratic Party and the Tea Party will be left with very little voice in politics until the winds or demographics change once again.



"RE: Libertarian = Republican ?"
Posted by Round Robin on 11-13-12 at 01:27 AM
I see a middle of the road type party eventually being formed and taking most of the moderates out of the major parties, leaving them with little other than their extreme wings. I see this new party eventually rendering both right and left wing extremists powerless and forcing government to become pragmatic, and I hope I'm not pushing up weeds before it happens.

"RE: Libertarian = Republican ?"
Posted by AyaK on 12-06-12 at 01:54 AM
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-12 AT 02:01 AM (EST)

>Not quite ready to gnaw your arm off? Ok,
>fine with me. But I see a lot more
>losses like last week in your future.

Perhaps so. But ultimately, there isn't enough money in any form to pay for the enormous growth of government under Democratic rule over the past four years. Britain's recent attempt at confiscatory income taxes on the rich show what will happen:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9707029/Two-thirds-of-millionaires-left-Britain-to-avoid-50p-tax-rate.html

Raising the tax rates caused a decrease in revenue. In the US, the markets will stand for an increase to the Clinton levels, but that won't produce enough money to pay for Michelle Obama's next vacation, so the rates will have to go higher. However, as the UK learned, doing that actually reduces revenue. But just because logic indicates that such actions are counterproductive won't stop Barack Hussein Obama.

Expatriation: it's not just for movie stars anymore!


"Better Late than Never"
Posted by kidflash212 on 11-10-12 at 05:19 PM
Florida finally comes in -

Final Electoral tally:

Obama - 332
Romney - 206


"Is she really that clueless"
Posted by Snidget on 11-10-12 at 06:15 PM
Ok, you aren't happy about the election results.

But can people explain to me how.

1. If you have to use a racist word to express your opinion that it is not a racist opinion and no one should ever assume you have any racist opinions or you have any other racist thoughts or feelings?

and

2. What part of it is a felony to even joke about killing the president (or just hoping someone does as well as some other gov't peeps) should be interpreted as nothing wrong and there is no reason for the Secret Service to have any questions for you at all?

http://www.modbee.com/2012/11/08/2448491/obama-threat-gets-woman-fired.html


"Is he really that clueless?"
Posted by Snidget on 11-10-12 at 06:35 PM
Just saw this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RQ4RVNcKTk

I missed the president's speech about the rape camps (actually apparently every speech he gave), how about you?


"RE: Is he really that clueless?"
Posted by cahaya on 11-11-12 at 03:05 AM
Talking heads, best played with the sound off. It's kind of funny, bobble heads, like you'd see on the dashboard.

And they are sounding off about whut?


"Yup!"
Posted by Silvergirl1 on 11-11-12 at 03:25 AM

I won't waste much time talking about a talking head who is spinning things out of control.




"Woman runs over husband for not voting"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-13-12 at 05:52 PM
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1286888--woman-runs-down-husband-with-car-for-not-voting-in-u-s-election-say-police

So even though they live in a state where all 11 of Arizona's electoral college votes went to Romney, it's still the husband's fault that the "family would face hardship" over Obama's reelection because he didn't vote?

She's right... the family is now facing hardship, albeit in a different way.


"Would the tire marks on his stomach"
Posted by IceCat on 11-13-12 at 06:29 PM

... be referred to as ab stains?

"RE: Would the tire marks on his stomach"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 11-13-12 at 08:17 PM
She couldn't stomach his excuse for not voting.

"Good news!"
Posted by Estee on 11-13-12 at 08:53 PM
Her odds of getting a gubernatorial pardon are really high.

"Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by Snidget on 11-21-12 at 03:42 PM
http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/how-obama-can-be-stopped-in-electoral-college/

Oh, they did finally notice that what they proposed isn't actually what the constitution says.

*facepalm*


"RE: Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by dabo on 11-21-12 at 04:05 PM
And search results turned up this KOS page for more amusement.

"RE: Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by AyaK on 11-21-12 at 04:12 PM
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-12 AT 04:12 PM (EST)

I have a different question. Ths guy claims that this is "one last chance to save America." Well, excuse me for disagreeing, but what he proposes would be to disregard the wishes of a majority of Americans. How would that possibly "save" America? Indeed, wouldn't such disregard for the wishes expressed by Americans at the ballot box be more likely to kill America?


"RE: Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by dabo on 11-21-12 at 04:30 PM
I would guess it's just his version of America he would be saving, no one else's matters.

One step forward two steps back.


"RE: Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by Estee on 11-21-12 at 04:44 PM
Easy. For the purposes of this article, 'America' equals 'The author and everyone who agrees with him'. Anyone else is Not American.

Issue solved.


"RE: Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by Snidget on 11-21-12 at 04:59 PM
Sad how quickly people seem to be willing to toss out Democracy and install a dictatorship whenever the result isn't the one they want.

I really don't think the America they are trying to save ever existed. I was reading today about the era when Republican run states and Democratically run states celebrated Thanksgiving on different days because politics was that polarized.

Giving thanks that we don't have to eat a feast on the same day as those people.

Although those are probably the people who cannot believe any "fair" election would ever allow any Democrat to be elected. After all people unskewed the polls enough to show every Republican would win easily, right? See if they "steal" it from you, it is just fine to "steal" it right back. Eye for an eye, it's Biblical!


"RE: Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by dabo on 11-21-12 at 05:15 PM
Well, one was Thanksgiving, the other was Franksgiving.

"RE: Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by Snidget on 11-21-12 at 04:52 PM
Sounds like the uncorrected version is making the email rounds as I saw it on snopes.

"RE: Abusing the Electoral College"
Posted by Estee on 11-21-12 at 04:06 PM
As if that's ever stopped them before. Just try it and if anyone says it was illegal, declare them a traitor!

Works almost every time.


"The Democrats claim two more GOP employment victims."
Posted by Estee on 12-05-12 at 07:36 PM
http://www.tvguide.com/News/Fox-News-Rove-Morris-1057130.aspx