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"Jenna in final four?"
Posted by barrymore on 03-22-03 at 10:58 PM
Many posts that I have come across state that the final four is as follows...

Jenna
Matt
Butch
Christy

I can understand Matt, Christy and Butch as they all have serious weight loss spoilers. Its pretty clear that Butch and Christy have a bond and are possibly this seasons Roger and Elizabeth or Pappy and Neleh. I can also see Matt making a huge immunity run as he is definitely the biggest and strongest guy out there. Also he was edited very much like Kathy in S4. But how the heck does Jenna get in here??? Christy doesn't seem to like her and I highly doubt that she can make an immunity run. Does someone know something that I don't. Can you help me figure this out?

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Messages in this discussion
"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Survivorerist on 03-22-03 at 11:34 PM
She could be on the tail end of a Pagonged alliance.

If final 6 is:

Butch
Christy
Deena
Heidi
Jenna
Matthew

And Heidi and Deena go 6 and 5, you'd have your final 4 there and it'd make total sense that Jenna was next to go.


(Another IceCat original )

The Top 5 FLL Castaways

1. Neleh Dennis (11 weeks at #1)
2. Colby Donaldson (5 weeks at #1)
2. Helen Glover (5 weeks at #1)
2. Heidi Strobel (5 weeks at #1)
4. Amber Brkich (4 weeks at #1)
4. Lex Van Den Burghe (4 weeks at #1)

"possible, though not likely"
Posted by JohnMc on 03-28-03 at 05:58 PM
<<She could be on the tail end of a Pagonged alliance.
If final 6 is:

Butch
Christy
Deena
Heidi
Jenna
Matthew

And Heidi and Deena go 6 and 5, you'd have your final 4 there and it'd make total sense that Jenna was next to go.>>

That scenario would imply that Jenna/Heidi/Deena had somehow managed to even up with Butch/Christy/Matthew to get to F6. The only way to break that tie is purple rock/paper/scissors. While the scenario you describe is definitely possible, it has to have a lot of "what ifs" for it to happen.

Agreeing with the possibility. But I don't think that F4 is B/C/J/M to begin with, and that's my 2 cents!

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by railfan on 03-23-03 at 08:49 AM
> But how the heck
>does Jenna get in here???
> Christy doesn't seem to
>like her and I highly
>doubt that she can make
>an immunity run. Does
>someone know something that I
>don't. Can you help
>me figure this out?

Uncle Boat Driver told Chill One and CO told all.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=3469&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0


"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by ShowMeTheWinner on 03-23-03 at 11:17 AM
I've got a question that I have been dying to ask since week one but I didn't want to start a thread coz I don't think it's ALL THAT significant. Since there's a thread on Jenna in the final four, I'm going to ask my question now so as not to risk sounding too stupid .

At the end of EVERY Survivor preview in Singapore, there is ALWAYS a shot of the words "1 Survivor" followed with a shot of Jenna celebrating (at what looks to be the Episode 1 IC).
Do you guys in the States and elsewhere ALWAYS get this shot at the end of every Survivor? The Singapore preview ALWAYS has this shot at the end of a Survivor preview EVERY WEEK. It has always bothered me but I thought it was too big a clue for MB to give us-- although it could very well be another one of those "Zoe hates Tammy" moments that was only present in the Asian previews.

Just to let you guys know now, instead of kicking myself at the end of the season when the big giveaway turned out to be true.


Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by drawde236 on 03-23-03 at 01:08 PM
Here's my take on the whole situation. Feel free to punch holes in as needed.

We currently have

Tambaqui & Jabaru

Roger Jenna
Christy Deena
Heidi Rob
Butch Matt
Dave Alex

The tribes merge and Heidi immediately jumps ship to rejoin Jenna.

Rob plants the seeds of doubt about Matt, thus poisoning the well.

Alex gets booted for being an immunity threat and for breaking guy alliance.

This leaves us with C/B/R/D and R/J/H/D/M. The pagonging begins and Dave, being the strongest of the 4 is the next to go.

The pagonging continues and Roger is the next to get the boot, but there are problems growing in the old Jabaru. Matt's flirting has not only won over Jenna, but has annoyed both Heidi and Rob.

We now have three distinct factions of Deena/Matt/Jenna,
Christy/Butch, and Rob/Heidi. Common sense would be for C/B and R/H to join up, but Deena is smarter than that. She convinces Christy and Butch to join her alliance with Jenna and Matthew, thus guaranteeing her dominance in the game.

This done, the next two to go are Rob and Heidi.

With the final 5 of Matt/Jenna/Christy/Butch and Deena secured, look for Matt to finally prove that he is an immunity threat. The two pairs team up against Deena and your final four is set.

Proceed with the hole punching.


"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Loree on 03-23-03 at 03:40 PM
I can see alot of this happening. But I think Roger may be the target before Dave. I think Heidi may convince them to get rid of Roger first. She may think she can still use Dave if she needs him later. Plus Jenna probably also thinks she can flirt with Dave and use him. The cute girls know that flirting won't work with Roger. And we know Matt disliked Roger more than Dave. Daniel also made that comment about Roger annoying the females when there is a merge. I think Deena and Jenna may really dislike his style. So I have a feeling Roger will be gone very quickly after a merge.
"No-Deena"
Posted by Chez on 03-28-03 at 06:24 AM
Like some others, I would like to see Deena in the F4 but have been unable to come up with a viable scenario. But after Ep7, I have come up with one. Here goes. It does require one small change from the CO final 6 order. See what you think..

Butch is mad after he was betrayed by his alliance. He gets even madder when Dave is the next to go. He forms a strong alliance with Christy, and plots to get rid of the ringleaders of the uprising - Alex and Rob.

Butch/Christy approach Deena with a plan to get rid of Alex/Rob. Alex is already in Deena's sights, so she agrees. Alex goes next, leaving 7.

Now Rob would be the likely target and in fact he may go. But we have to first deal with Heidi. CO states she goes before Rob and F4 but this is difficult to figure under any scenario. I suggest Rob wins immunity, and she is so weak in her emaciated state it's almost a blessing for her to go next. (And remember, Dave is on the yacht).

Next, Butch gets his revenge, sending Rob packing. This leaves a final 5 of Deena, Matt, Butch, Christy, and Jenna - who of course is the one CO did not predict.

Now, everyone would probably like Matt to go, but he wins IN. Christy never had any love for Jenna, so she engineers that vote with Butch.

And there we are with the final four of Deena, Matt, Butch and Christy.

OK, bring on the barrage.

"RE: No-Deena"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 03-28-03 at 08:31 AM
Chez, that sounds like a reasonable possibility of how things could go down. I'm not sure if you call Alex and Rob as the "leaders of the uprising" as Deena had more to do with it than Alex, but I won't quibble too much there.

I'm about ready to dismiss ChillOne's accuracy and chalk it off to being "close enough" so the final four you've proposed makes sense as much as having Jenna there instead of Deena.

I know it's still early and plenty of time for the editing to kick in, but Jenna has not IMHO been edited as a potential winner to date. That didn't stop Vee from winning it all, but each of the other four winners (Dicque, Tina, Ethan, Brian) had all started to be edited as possible winners by about the halfway point of the game heading down the stretch. By contrast, Deena has looked like a far better game player and has had a more hands-on role in the way the game has gone.


"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-28-03 at 08:39 AM
We could go back to past Survivors' prior to their final four and wonder how on earth it could happen when it doesn't seem plausible, when in fact, any situation can be plausible, it has to be because it happens.

There are factors that could come into play, tie votes, winning immunity, someone getting a sick boot vote, etc. So the final four including Butch/Christy is not unheard of and, in fact, considering the TYPE A personalities of the majority here, those TYPE B people could fare better.

As of now Dave and then Butch are what is considered to be the next off. I have a feeling we are going to see Butch "pardoned" so to speak and not be the next to go after Dave. My reason for this is simple, Deena will take a second look at Butch, realize that she doesn't have to get rid of him now b/c his "alliance" has been broken up and we really need to get another strong male off. This is what tells me how Butch lives to see another day for now.

My personal opinion I honestly can't conceive Butch railing in anger and scheming and enticing to build up an alliance to oust others. That is just not my take on him; he had a look of shock and hopelessness at TC. Butch, IMO is not made up of the "stuff" to plot and scheme so to speak to the level that he would be able to completely do an overhaul on a strong voting block, I think his advancement is more about what the others end up doing to each other as oppposed to what he does to them.

I think then Deena is going to review her "hit list" and bump Alex/Matthew above Butch. I also think that REGARDLESS that Butch voted against Christy they HAVE a friendship and bond that started at new Tambi. Butch was simply keeping his word to the original alliance he thought was "word" and CHRISTY of all people would understand that. However, that "word" is done now so Butch's option are different now

I don't necessarily believe that C/B "create" this alliance and shake things up. I think more than likely that these two make it to the final four simply because they are OUT of the FRAY OF DRAMA, pure and simple.

Dave will be at the height of it, Rob most certainly, Deena definitely, we already see Matthew's imitation of Anthony Perkins, etc. Butch and Christy are really going to do well if they appear NON THREATENING and I think that is the biggest thing.

As far as the other two; I am not convinced of Matthew yet, however it is plausible if he goes on an immunity run, Deena and company view Alex to be next on the hit list and the strategy of Rob finally implodes. But again there are two many unknown factors in this scenario.

Jenna to me is easy although it would appear Deena is ruling the roost (and I don't discount Deena just yet) HOWEVER, Deena is slowly emerging from smart player keeping things close to her vest to be very very loud and a bit overconfident AND she is not keeping it a secret. I thought it was a VERY bad move on her part to make that comment about Roger while on the perch. This behavior may end up being her downfall.

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by samboohoo on 03-28-03 at 10:36 AM
Veruca, I agree with you 100% on Butch surviving because of what goes on around him.

I haven't replied yet to any of the post-merge alliance threads because I'm still trying to sort through everything (and probably overanalyzing it in the process). I do think that Rob will be true to Deena. Rob is always shown in his interviews making negative comments about people, but in Ep. 7, we actually had Rob saying how much he respects Deena. I also thought that Deena and Jenna seemed to be making plans to go forward with Rob, rather than Heidi.

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-28-03 at 12:09 PM
Veruca --

Absolutely right on -- I just posted in another thread that Christy is in a Vecepia-like position, and Butch will be shortly as well. They will be courted by others as needed, and they may be able to help each other to a degree, but the main thing is: they will be clear of the big-ticket bouts going on in the main arena.

And Bebo pointed out that Jenna may last simply because she is not seen as an immunity threat. And she is not a schemer like Deena is, and I believe we will see Heidi is.

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by munson on 03-28-03 at 12:14 PM
Veruca, I also agree. The players will have other fish to fry before turning their sites on Butch. But, by then it could be too late. Butch has a good chance of advancing because he's a nice guy, he's not much of an immunity threat and he has no alliance.

Example: In the Outback, Rodger/Liz outlast Jerri and Amber because once Colby/Tina/Keith didn't need their votes, they decided to cannabalize the Oga5 and keep the 2 weakest Kuchas, therby securing the F3. The difference this time around is that no one will pull an Amber (do nothing) and go quietly. This bunch is too savvy.

As for Jenna, I think the editting is very interesting. It's obvious she has an alliance with fellow Amazon chick Heidi but it's never mentioned or talked about during the episode. It's not hidden, but it also hasn't been explicitly revealed. On the other hand, she has clearly made some type of deal with Rob and Deena re F3 and with the larger tribe as a whole re F5. History tells us that neither will be successful. At some point, Jenna will need to play the game hard to save Heidi and this could be what *earns* her the F2.

Additionally, she has not received the negative attention that Heidi has in terms of her *character*. Unlike Heidi, who is edited to be unlikable, Jenna has been presented as somewhat enigmatic, a little UTR, using her assets to her advantage and planning and scheming just enough to not be obvious (Rob). As for influence, keep in mind that Heidi/Jenna were responsible for aiming NewJab's sites on Roger instead of Dave. These girls understand the game. As an aside, I think they realize that, unlike Roger, if F2 is male v female, Dave will vote for the woman because the men (except Butch) betrayed him.

Lastly, she is juggling a couple of alliances and is in a good position to take advantage of any situation that presents itself to advance her position. She's safe as a kitten in her alliance with Deena and Rob - Deena will target the men first, Rob isn't about to vote off the swimsuit model. Heidi won't vote against her. She's not perceived as an immunity threat and she's done little to prove that she's more than just a "pretty girl". (read: all body, no brains).

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-28-03 at 12:52 PM
On the other hand, she has clearly made some type of deal with Rob and Deena re F3

Uhhhh...not so sure about this. We heard Deena tell Rob that the three of them would be F3. Jenna was nowhere to be seen.

I don't think Jenna is privy to this "deal", and I don't even think this is necessarily Deena's intention -- it was a sop to appease Rob for the moment. As for Rob, I doubt he considers it to be etched in stone either.

What was revealed here is that Deena knows Heidi and Jenna have to be broken up eventually. They are tighter with each other than Deena is with either of them.

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by munson on 03-28-03 at 01:12 PM
Perhaps I infer too much but Deena telling Rob that the three of them are Final 3 seems to imply that it was discussed by Deena and Jenna. She sounded like she was reaffirming the plan as opposed to coming up with it.

Add to this Deena's comments to Jenna that they needed to get rid of Alex because he has an alliance with Rob and my confidence reamins high that there is, in fact, a deal on the table between the three. Maybe *clearly* was a poor word choice.

We agree on the rest in that I believe there is no way ANYONE in this "alliance" isn't working all the angles and keeping their options *wide* open.

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-28-03 at 04:44 PM
Add to this Deena's comments to Jenna that they needed to get rid of Alex because he has an alliance with Rob and my confidence reamins high that there is, in fact, a deal on the table between the three.

Oops, you're right, munson. I forgot about that.

Still, though -- who are they going to use to get rid of Alex then? It sounds to me like they are still in cahoots with someone else.

I guess what I meant is, I don't get the impression that this came about in a 3-way deal between Deena, Jenna and Rob. It may be that Deena told Jenna what she said to Rob about F3. Or she told Jenna she was going to tell him that.

I think Deena is the go-between here and they're all semi-into it, but, as you say, everyone is working everyone else as well.

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by munson on 03-28-03 at 08:52 PM
Still, though -- who are they going to use to get rid of Alex then? It sounds to me like they are still in cahoots with someone else.

Ah, that's the question upon which the game turns, I believe. My best guess is that despite the declaration of a unified NewJab, Jenna and Heidi *are* allied and Deena would replace either Matt and Alex in the NewJab5 with Christie and Butch in a heartbeat. I guess we'll see how it plays out soon...

I guess what I meant is, I don't get the impression that this came about in a 3-way deal between Deena, Jenna and Rob. It may be that Deena told Jenna what she said to Rob about F3. Or she told Jenna she was going to tell him that.

I think Deena is the go-between here and they're all semi-into it, but, as you say, everyone is working everyone else as well.

You've got a point here, Brownroach. This does seem the more likely scenario - Deena, the lawyer, brokering the deal - more of a temporary coalition of convenience while targetting the men and other threats.

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by GuessItRains on 03-28-03 at 04:20 PM
>We could go back to past
>Survivors' prior to their final
>four and wonder how on
>earth it could happen when
>it doesn't seem plausible, when
>in fact, any situation can
>be plausible, it has to
>be because it happens.

Veruca and others in this thread, I disagree with this statement. At the point where there were 9 left, I think that the actual last 4 of each of the first 5 Survivors was far more easily explainable than the CO Final 4 we have here.

1) Survivor 1: The Tagi alliance was the final 4. Easily explained. They pick everybody off.

2) Survivor 2: The Final 4 was the core Ogakor alliance we knew all about + Elizabeth. Could have been easily explained by them picking off the strong Kucha and Liz either "kicking butt" in the challenges or being not picked off because she was weak.

3) Survivor 3: The strong 3 man alliance of Ethan, Lex, and Tom + the weak Kim J. We knew Boran was in charge. Easy to explain post-merge.

4) Survivor 4: Vecepia, Kathy, Neleh, Paschal. Could have been explained with 9 left by these 4 + Sean revolting against the old Rotu4 alliance (true), or by winning a tie after Sean was voted out (false, but simple).

5) Survivor 5: Brian and 3 of his tribemates. Easy to explain since they had numbers. Unsurprising they would bump off Ted before the final 4.

6) The most "obvious" Final 4 at this point would be Deena, Jenna, Heidi, and Rob. I could explain other possible Final Fours subbing in a person here or there for an immunity run. But Jenna (or Deena), Matt, Christy, and Butch has to be the most bizarre grouping imaginable. Jenna and Deena are in the core dominant alliance. Matt and Christy are on the fringes and have zero connection to each other, and Butch is in the opposing alliance and also has no clear ties to Matt or Christy (he's voted against her once and against her ally Jeanne the other time!). Plus based on what we have seen so far, Matt, Christy, and Butch (at least) are the least strategic players out there, and Jenna isn't much better.

I won't say it's impossible that ChillOne is right. Hey, it would be great if he is because then we're clearly in for a fun rollercoaster ride in the last few episodes. But my strong GUT is that with 7 or so left, this spoiler will go the way of GervaseX, Uncle Cameraman, Jesus, and Maraarotu's up-down theory. I think we need to start picking based on the current game status (which obviously points to Dave or Butch next) rather than some "magical" Final 4 that is most likely wrong.


"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-28-03 at 04:50 PM
Matt, Christy, and Butch (at least) are the least strategic players out there, and Jenna isn't much better.

Here's your answer in a nutshell.

VerucaSalt posted the John Nash theory in another thread:
"Do what others are not doing." There are too many leaders/schemers/strategists in this installment, and each has his own agenda. The people who did not spend the game desperately jockeying for position are the ones who make it to the end.

"RE: Jenna final four"
Posted by GuessItRains on 03-28-03 at 05:16 PM
Well it does and it doesn't. I can certainly see people getting tired of the leaders and schemers (namely Deena, Rob, and Heidi), but there still has to be at least a "semi-leader" to band all of the sheep together. Who is going to do that out of the proposed Final 4? And even more importantly, how does that lead to Jenna (the most "in" the current ruling Rob-Deena alliance) winning the game?

I still ain't convinced.

"RE: No-Deena"
Posted by big idiot on 03-28-03 at 11:23 AM
I also see Deena, rather than Jenna, in final two.


From my post on 2-12-03:

"Jeff's last quote of his chat really puts all his other quotes in perspective:
"I think one thing to keep on eye on this season is the people who are doing a good job of adapting. And I'll leave it at that."

So big adapter = big finisher."

**Is Jenna "adapting"? I don't see it, she is a sheep. Is Deena "adapting"? Yes, she is shown altering her play and adapting her strategy.

-----------------------------------------------------------
From my post on 3-8-03:

"I agree with those above that believe that Deena is (or will be) the swan.

I think the CO quote of "not the most attractive" is a diplomatic statement, not a literal statement. It was a kind way of saying that this person was not attractive.

There were moments in Ep 4 when Deena looked a bit attractive, a big leap from someone that I ruled out as a non-contender for a beauty metamorphosis. (I think Jeanne is getting older looking and Christy is not changing)

Deena has the weight loss support, Jenna does not (I'm in the UPitt community, no rumors here). The "Jana" is a result of a translational game of Operator, it does not help between these two.

I think the clue of "not the most attractive" to "most attractive" is huge. It indicates the MOST significant aspect of this person and their transformation, Jenna would not fit this. Memorable situations or phenomenon involves EXTREMES, going from lowest grade to highest grade, going from worst athlete to best athlete, going from shy to extrovert.

This beauty transformation must be one of extremes due to its memorable nature. The horse that comes from second to win a race is not so memorable/significant as the horse that comes from last to win a race.

So I'm putting Deena (with Matt) in the final two."

-----------------------------------------------------
From my post on 3-17-03:

"At present, I believe in the "Deena and Matt" final two.

As an argument for Deena being the final survivor via Nash's theory: we saw her as part of a tribe that had no leader. No leader would equal no progress. If they all were leaders then there also would be no progress. Instead the tribe chose one leader, Deena, and perhaps that leadership role carried her like a wave all the way to winning survivor."

**Another poster noted a Deena quote, paraphrased "I see what others are doing and I do something different"

I've not seen any Nash-style support for Jenna's style of sheep-play.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
(But I'm still feeling that a Matt vs Deena final two results in a Matt win)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Just some thoughts, BI

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Shamazon on 03-28-03 at 04:51 PM
I'm still not convinced that ChillOne has the final four, but...

After watching a couple of episodes, I thought the remark about Jana ending up being the hottest one meant that it could not possibly be Jenna. I'm not sure if I just read between the lines that weight loss is what made her look "Hot," but I did read that into the swan story. That being the case, I decided that Jana had to be Deena, not Jenna.

However, Jenna IS looking better on each episode. And if you saw the pre-Episode 1 pictures (I looked at the ones on TDT,)she is much better looking all decked out than we have seen her. Could this insider have seen the whole group (less the loser lodge) leaving the area after the game has played out? If so, Jenna is almost assuredly his swan.

Jeff Probst also calls her a sleeper in an early interview.

I just can't decide who the guy is. I'm not convinced as some people are that it's Matt, and I just don't WANT it to be Rob. I actually think with the dynamics we have now that it could be ALEX.

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Spidey on 03-28-03 at 05:07 PM
I just can't decide who the guy is. I'm not convinced as some people are that it's Matt, and I just don't WANT it to be Rob. I actually think with the dynamics we have now that it could be ALEX.

Not only am I torn between Deena and Jenna, but also between Rob, Matt and ALex for the male F2. Matt is getting Zzzzoe or Vee editing. First he is just an outsider, then an fringe alliance member with very few confessionals, to a fringe alliance member with a sharp machete, what's next? Not F2 editing IMHO. Besides, any one of them could fit the description. (Matt may have the muscles, but Rob has the haircut, Alex sorta in between.) Rob is scheming too hard. We could be getting Brian editing or Nurse John editing. Tough call right now. Alex is visible, likable, attractive and could finagle some type of alliance or go on an immunity run to get to F2.


"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Jims02 on 03-28-03 at 05:36 PM
I don't know what the deal is with Matt!

Some have said that he's getting the Kathy editing. Make him look weird, but likeable in the end.

Huh? How is he becoming more likeable? I mean, I LOVED Kathy by the end of the season, but Matthew... he's just so darn CREEPY!!! And from the looks of next week, it doesn't get any better.

The only way I think the editing would make sense would be if they're going for another Vee editing. Kind of sit Matt in the background the whole series.

But who knows. Look at the editing for TAR3, and Flo ended up getting the moola...


In Honor of Summary Writers...
2. "Look Jeanne, a fish! EEEEEEEK!" -survivorscott
3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI
4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki
5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir
6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-28-03 at 08:12 PM
Wow great discussion everyone!!

I forget who offered another opinion on my take that the final four if going back to the beginning may not be so easy to assess (sorry) That was a great counter on it but I have to say (at least for me) it is so much easier to post in hindsight. I still don't think I would have necessarily thought a combo of Vecepia, Kathy, Neleh, Pappy would have happened; the Africa one, yeah I could "see it" I supppose but I don't know that I would have necessarily said ALL four of them. As far as last season, yeah that made sense although I would have suspected maybe Ted swapped for someone else. I think in every scenario of the "final four" there is room for one or two people to not technically "make sense" so to speak so the fact that we would have B/C and lord knows who the other final two are, it is VERY plausible to me.

I think the B/C argument is solid. I just have the feeling that these two will be almost overlooked in a Alpha Dog blood bath.

As far as the final four having to have a leader to have them arrive to that point, I think it depends on how you look at the concept. It depends on what you mean by "leader" and by "sheep" My reference with the John Nash scenario is that if you have a massive amount of Alpha leaders (Deena) or those who are trying to lead,(Roger) those who are doing the opposite may fare better (paraphrasing). Christy, IMO by no means is a "sheep" I have heard her confessionals and her comments, she is not just "following the herd" because she has no thought process but rather taking a "backseat" while the overt leaders are battling each other (aka Deena and Roger and those others there who are overt in their personalities) All it means is that if there are too many of that type, those who hang back from the combustion should fare better but by no means, would I consider ALL of those types sheep. Example and in my opinion, Momma Kim and Jan were sheep. Ethan and Tina were not the OVERT butting head leaders BUT these two hung back and let the LEADERS or SO CALLED LEADERS (Lex, Tom, Jerri, Keith) hurt themselves eventually which is how I could see a final four with B/C/M/J if it does happen. We don't know that some of these people are being quietly strategic but allowing the LOUDNESS to take over. I'm still not convinced of Matthew and while Jenna is plausible I'm still questioning that also.

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Booted on 03-29-03 at 11:31 AM
What if....

We have seen very little of Butch. What if he is a leader, just low keyed and behind the scenes. What if he now becomes more open recruiting Dave, Christy, Jenna and Heidi. How could he get each of these to turn on the others?

Dave - Obviously in with Butch

Christy - I think they have a close relationship and respect each other and she would be willing to work with someone like that. He only voted for here because he had to live up to his word to the "guys".

Heidi - Likes Dave and willing to work with him.

Jenna - closely aligned with Heidi and agrees to go along with her.

That would make #9 - Alex immunity threat and Heidi and Jenna convince Deena to get rid of him making it look like Deena is still in charge of everything (or alt if he wins immunity Matt)

#8 - Matt (or Alex) Deena if M/A win immunity

#7 - Matt/Alex/Deena - whoever is left

#6 - Basing this on Heidi going here because she is getting weak and very sick.

#5 - Rob - Last to be Pagonged

#4-1 take you pick...

Tear it apart and throw it out if it is wrong...

Booted

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-31-03 at 11:42 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-03 AT 11:42 AM (EST)

We have seen very little of Butch. What if he is a leader, just low keyed and behind the scenes. What if he now becomes more open recruiting Dave, Christy, Jenna and Heidi.

I really don't see this happening, BootEd. I agree with Veruca that Butch is incapable of this kind of thinking. He's done nothing but follow Dave and Roger up to this point, and he is totally powerless now. If anything, he might even be abandoned by Dave, imo.

We are in the Pagong Zone now. When one faction gets control after the merger, tradition is that they stick together to execute their plan apace until they are forced by necessity to make a change. There is no reason for the kind of sea change in alliances that lot of people are suggesting to happen in Ep 8.

The only way Dave will be saved this week is by winning immunity. However, I don't think a Pagong plan is finalized beyond booting Dave at this point. If Dave does win IC, Alex may be targeted -- but it won't be because of a scheme that Dave and Butch try to put into action.

Deena and Rob are not going to let Dave get any power back. Deena already knows she wants Alex out soon, since he is close to Rob and he is a strong male. Rob may go along since he has Matt in his pocket (and I don't think anyone knows this). Or, imo, there is a slim chance Rob may rebel and get the men back together (temporarily) to take out Deena.

Whatever... at the end of Ep 8, Deena and Rob (or one of them) will still be in control of the game. Dave, if he's still around, will not be any safer than he was before.

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 03-31-03 at 11:57 AM
The only way Dave will be saved this week is by winning immunity.

I must pick nits here with you Brownroach: WHY is this so? WHY is it SO CERTAIN that the ***ONLY*** way Dave won't be booted is if he wins immunity?

I don't see Dave's boot as certain AT ALL. I think Boot Ed has a very logical and plausible suggestion. In other threads, I've given some good, plausible reasons why Alex or Deena could be ahead of Dave in the boot order this week.

Plus, except for a non-weight spoiler, there really is nothing to concretely suggest that Dave is going at this time. He's ALREADY been there 21+ days. Weight loss spoilers for Jeanne proved really great for predicting HER boot time (/sarcasm).

Anyway, I just want to point out that Dave isn't automatically doomed.



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by jkokoj on 03-31-03 at 12:04 PM
I disagree to a certain extent BR.

I am not quite sure Dave will go this week. Heidi and Jenna have to know that keeping Alex, Rob and Matt around will lesson their chances of winning any IC later on. It is also risky b/c they have to know they cannot control those men or Deena for that matter.

The best way for these 2 to keep any power is to court Dave/Butch with Christy's help. I am sure Dave realizes he has to have the IC in order to stay this week and will be trying to do everything he can to stay.

Now that I think of it, Jenna may not defect from her alliance but Heidi may.

I truly do not think we are going to see a straight pagong this season.

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-31-03 at 12:47 PM

Well a straight pagonging would mean that Dave, Butch and Christy are the next three targets. I don't think we are going to see that either, jkokokj.

Dawg, sure -- anything is possible. But some scenarios are more plausible or likely than others.

The most plausible scenario this week is that Dave gets the boot unless he wins immunity. Why? Because new Jaburu said they were going to boot Dave as soon as there was a merge. They only switched to Roger because the women felt that Roger shouldn't be on the jury. If Roger had won IC, I have no doubt that Dave would have been booted.

What has changed now? Nothing. Having gotten rid of Roger, new Jaburu will go after Dave. They don't even need Heidi's or Christy's vote to get rid of him.

Here's one scenario that you posted in another thread:

Butch and Dave embark on a plan to gather allies. Dave successfully "turns" Heidi, who brings in Jenna. All of a sudden, we have four people.

Butch does a little work on Christy. Maybe it works, maybe not. But lets say that ROB gets wind of all this... and his "displeasure" with Dave is the real CBS misdirection here.

Now you've got 5 or 6 people... and Deena, shown as feeling safe and secure and very Alpha-female-ish, is suddenly the next target, with the bare minimal support of Alex and Matthew and maybe Christy (if any of them).

Spoilers supported: 1) Deena doesn't last long after the merge. 2) Butch is saved. 3) Rob turns, then can later turn on Heidi, thus fulfilling that little set of spoilers.

First of all, it seems to me that you trashed this particular Deena spoiler in another thread. Now you like it, but you don't like the Dave spoiler.

The scenarios that you and BootEd describe variously involve Jenna abandoning her alliance with Deena, Rob abandoning his alliance with Matt, Rob abandoning his alliance with Deena, Rob suddenly aligning back with Dave, Heidi getting back with Dave despite having voted against Roger, Alex and Matt abandoning Rob but staying true to...Deena? Whew.

And all in the space of one episode, because Dave and Butch somehow pull this off.

Sure, it's possible. Hardly plausible, though, imo.

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by jkokoj on 03-31-03 at 12:54 PM
One thing tugging at me though. Heidi and Jenna did not want Dave out. THEY changed Deena's mind to Roger.

Both Jenna and Heidi have spent significant amount of time with Dave. Obviously we did not see the entire night Jenna spent with Dave. Obviously we did not see all the interaction Dave and Heidi had together while they were Taboqui. This could be some sort of secret alliance.

Just some more food for thought.

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 03-31-03 at 12:58 PM
No, I didn't trash the Deena-long-lasting spoiler. It was SNewser who downgraded her to "neutral" from "thumbs up".

MB shows failed plans and hides successful ones. Deena's mentioning wanting to vote out Dave has been shown. Dave has been all but set up for this week's boot.

I'm not saying Dave WON'T go, but I sure as hell am saying that he's not guaranteed to go, even if he doesn't win immunity.



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-31-03 at 01:10 PM
Well MB didn't work too hard to hide a successful plan last week.

Fair enough, Dawg. It's true that Heidi initiated the Roger boot so she may have something up her sleeve regarding Dave. And Deena jumped on the Roger boot too quickly without thinking things through, imo -- but I went into that on another thread.

But you DID trash the Deena spoiler after jkokoj posted the the source of it, right here:

SurvivinDawg 3856 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-27-03, 02:26 PM (EST)

9. "RE: Why Christie and what's next for her?"

And this is exactly the kind of *BOGUS* spoilers from SS and other places that we've been getting this year. A friend of a friend of a friend told Uncle Boatman that a friend of a friend of Uncle Cameraman said something about Deena, but I don't know Deena myself so it's probably true anyway.

Nothing personal to jkokoj or djandy, but these *BOGUS* spoilers are starting to wear at my last spoiling nerve... (/soapbox)

Just saying.

"RE: Jenna in final four?"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 03-31-03 at 01:34 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-03 AT 01:43 PM (EST)

Well MB didn't work too hard to hide a successful plan last week.

He certainly DID hide Roger's boot -- before the show. He didn't hide it DURING the show, but that was way past voting time, wasn't it?

Furthermore, how many times do I have to say it? I base the thought of Deena POSSIBLY going early on SNEWSER, not on anything from SS. Also, the diatribe you quoted above was a general soapbox rant at these *BOGUS* spoilers in general.

Brownroach 608 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
03-31-03, 11:42 AM (EST)

26. "RE: Jenna in final four?"
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-03 AT 11:42 AM (EST)

...

The only way Dave will be saved this week is by winning immunity.

I'm not saying Dave absolutely won't go, or that Deena absolutely will. I was responding to the above comment that the ***ONLY*** way Dave could be saved is to win immunity. If you believe that, be sure to vote for Dave in all places where applicable. But if you're going to make a definitive statement that the ***ONLY*** way Dave can survive is to win immunity, then bring some game and tell us WHY that is the case, instead of some unsupported statement. So far you've shown me NOTHING to suggest that Dave's ***ONLY*** way to survive is to win immunity.



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

" "
Posted by Brownroach on 03-31-03 at 03:09 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-03 AT 03:18 PM (EST)

But if you're going to make a definitive statement that the ***ONLY*** way Dave can survive is to win immunity, then bring some game and tell us WHY that is the case, instead of some unsupported statement. So far you've shown me NOTHING to suggest that Dave's ***ONLY*** way to survive is to win immunity.

Occam's Razor. That is what supports my opinion. And although I (and others) may often write in "definitive" sentences, I think it's pretty clear I am only stating my take on a particular situation -- and I did give my reasons -- even if I do not write "imo" after every sentence.

There are umpteen scenarios one could come up with where Dave loses IC and then does not get the boot. Any of them are possible, but from what we know at this point in the game, none of them are nearly as probable as Dave getting booted if he does not win IC. imo.


**Attempted to edit because I seem to have accidentally erased the subject line, but now I can't reinstate it. Oh well.