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"The Winner of S6?"

Posted by PepeLePew13 on 03-12-03 at 05:56 AM
ivoryElephant’s Ep. 1 Analysis: Pride Cometh before the fall : Amazon thread got me thinking about who might be the winner. He speculated that Alex would be the winner based on being the only person who seemed to speak positively without complaint or being dogmatic, etc., but now it seems to be apparent that Alex will be booted quite soon.

So, who might be the winner of Survivor: Amazon?

We’re told by ChillOne that The Final 4 are (in order of longevity): Jana/Jenna, 23; Another guy, "strong build", 26; Another guy, 50 (3rd place); Deaf girl, 22 (4th place) with seemingly the consensus being that “Jana/Jenna” is most likely either Jenna or Deena, the “strong build” guy being Matthew since he’s got some reported weight loss while Alex and Dave are not sounding like they’re long for the game and the 50 guy being Butch.

We also have a quote from Jeff Probst where he said, … to contrast him, we had Matthew (Von Ertfelda, 33), who has been to all kinds of jungles all over the world... and yet he didn't know anything about how to play Survivor.

Here’s my speculation. Matthew von Ertfelda is the winner of Survivor: Amazon.

I look at Jiffy’s quote as a ironic statement that may have been intended to throw us off or a quote said before Matthew had a chance to quickly get a grasp of how things go and use his newfound knowledge to take him to the endgame. Wouldn’t it be fitting for Jiffy to say this, only to have Matthew “prove” him wrong and come out on top? Perhaps THIS is the key comment of the season, a la Richard’s “You can go ahead and write me the cheque for a million dollars.” (said to that effect)

I look at ChillOne’s accuracy in identifying the first four boots but in the wrong order. He has said that he’s a big fan of Survivor but has been wrong on the procedure of how the game is played out at times. Also, the final two votes aren’t revealed until the live unveiling during the finale – how do the source know that the woman is the winner? So, I take this to mean that ChillOne can be and probably is wrong about the exact order of the final four, even if he’s got the age/sex of the four correct.

Go ahead and poke any holes in this theory.


"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."


Table of contents

Messages in this discussion
"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 03-12-03 at 06:42 AM
Not only will I decline to poke holes in this analysis... I will add to it.

The way Matthew has been edited so far is that of a guy in trouble. He made what appears to be a bad deal by getting in with Ryan and (that loser) Daniel. He's on the outside looking in. He catches a really nice fish which will HOPEFULLY save his butt. Of course, *we* know a swap is coming to save him, but the non-spoiling viewers don't.

Brian was edited as the gameplayer in S5. Now, Matthew is being edited as the guy on the ropes who is struggling to *survive*. It'll be interesting to watch how Matthew is edited as time goes along.


Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged


"I Agree..."
Posted by IceCat on 03-12-03 at 06:53 AM
Matthew was invisible for EP1 and EP2...
Depicted as in serious trouble for EP3 and EP4...
The EP5 swap will be his salvation as he is swapped to Jabaru...

He will, no doubt, be successful in his new tribe and will probably go on an IC streak a la Colby. With his athletic physique he will have to win quite a few of the ICs in order to avoid being booted as a post merge threat...

Maybe JP is hinting at Matthew being a 'challenge hog' thus not knowing 'how to play the game'.


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by wendyp on 03-12-03 at 12:42 PM
Good Summary of info Pepe!

To add to your post, remember that both Kathy and Keith were edited to be in touble and made the final 3 ~ which goes along with the spoiler of Matt in the final 4. The difference is that I think if Matt gets this far he will be final 2 and probably the winner.

Keith was not like by the other 2 where Matt will be like by the merged members. And Kathy had 2 sneaky ladies. I also think if if comes down to Butch picking who he will go against he will pick a guy since the theme is Men against Women.


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by KeithFan on 03-12-03 at 01:19 PM
Not a bad theory .. all signs point to yes with the editing.

The part that bothers me is the second member of the F2. There is a huge differance between Jenna and Deena. I think Deena would be more likely to get the votes of the women on the jury then Jenna. Now, the Million Dollar question is who would get more MENS votes. If CBS has it there way the men would vote for the pretty girl but I'm not so sure.


This maybe needs another thread, but is Matt gay? I can't recall him ever talking about the women, and, last week in his confessional he said his plans were baring "*fruit* (snicker) if I can say that". To each his own, but I'm thinking the women could latch on to him if this is true thus propelling him up to that lofty position. I can't think of another way for him to get there if the CO is true and it is Matt. He doesn't seem to have enemies, but no true friends on the mens team.

Just my $0.02.


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by ivoryElephant on 03-12-03 at 03:04 PM
Good point Pepe!

Another thing to add is John Nash's prisoners dilemma.
Jeff hinted at it during the reunion show and it kind of fits Matthews situation.

He also fits the age range for winners 27- 40 with the average around 35.


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by TechNoir on 03-12-03 at 08:17 PM
Jeff mentioned Prisoner's Dilemma ... have we ever analyzed it here? (I miss stuff)


It's a woman's turn ... I'm guessing Deena but it could be Christy. It's too early to tell from the editing. Besides Matthew is waaaay too ugly to win. EPM won't have it.


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by snoocharoo on 03-12-03 at 03:11 PM
Excelent observation Pepe...thank you for bringing it to the forefront. I totally agree that Matthew is being edited to look as if he is in trouble but in reality I think he is quite safe. He strikes me a gentle person,one who won't make waves, complain or give orders. Matthew is a good soldier who while not interested in the game-show of Survivor is well adapted to surviving. Additionally, Matthew is the cook and provider which seems to provide a VERY SOLID place within the pack.

I feel absolutely confident that CO spoiler is wrong about the F4. Like I've said before...Jana is so ambiguous it could apply to ANY of the females except Christie who is notable because she is hearing impaired and Heidi because she is well endowed. So who does that leave...Jeanne, Jenna and Deena. CO also said that one chick came back looking better than she did when she arrived. Okay people, based on what I have seen, it ain't Jenna. She looks AWFUL!!!!!!!!! I believe that CO is wrong about the order, just like he was wrong about the boot order of the first 4. This is due to the fact that I cannot in any way, shape or form fathom EPMB not capitalizing on Christie's handicap. Sorry peeps, but MB is smart enough to know that he should milk that cow dry. IMHO Christie is one of the F2 along with Matthew.

Brian Heidick played the game hard and people have the attitude of "been there, done that". To keep the show refreshing MB has to give us an underdog, someone with seemingly no knowledge of how to play the game or someone who has a distictive disadvantage in playing the game (hearing impairment) comingup as Sole Survivor. Matthew does fit that profile.


"Don't hate me because I'm beautiful, there are so many other reasons"


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by Krautboy on 03-12-03 at 03:27 PM
Excellent Analysis Pepe.

I'm in the Jenna/Matthew F2 camp...but The ChillOne did mention that the F2 female was "better liked" than the F2 male. This wopuld make sense if it was Matthew...he's not really the warm and cuddly type.

So, based on what I remember about the ChillOne's comments I'd say the votes would favor Jenna.

Anyway, this is an interesting thread, so I'll gather up my "intel" and report back later with a more thoughtful post...


Krautboy


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by I_AM_HE on 03-12-03 at 09:51 PM
that's what I was thinking Krautboy. I don't think CO ever offered a winner, just the observation that the woman was better liked, but you never know how the votes will come out, or something like that

and as someone said above, Matthew seems to be edited as the Kathy of S6 - perhaps the person we'll be rooting for will actually win this time (Deena could alse share that role, but outside of a little bossiness in Ep1, she hasn't gotten near the same treatment Kathy did - MB even made a point to show Shawna (or was it Heidi?) commenting on how her leadership was a good thing)


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-12-03 at 04:53 PM
and yet he didn't know anything about how to play Survivor.

And elsewhere Jiffy said:

The key to being successful in Survivor in my opinion is adaptability. And I think that holds true in all aspects of life. If you're not able to go with the flow, if you're not able to compromise at times...it's going to be difficult.

We saw Matt start to adapt and go with the flow in Ep 4. He spoke about this overtly in confessional, but his way of effecting it with his tribemates was very subtle.

We also saw Deena start talking very frankly about strategic decisions in confessional at about the same time. They both seemed to be looking clearly toward the endgame. No one else has come across that way yet.

My reaction to this juxtaposition was that one of them would make it to the Final 2. I think it will be Matt. And I agree, Pepe, it looks like he could win.


"Jenna F2"
Posted by Krautboy on 03-13-03 at 01:24 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-13-03 AT 01:26 AM (EST)

Pepe, I agree that Matthew is in the F2...and with Shawna gone and Deena going shortly after the merge, all doubt about the ChillOne Spoiler F2 female being Jenna should be removed.

The following is a summary of the ChillOne Spoiler highlights (in chronological order) relating to the F2 female:

1.
Contestant information

Here is what I know ... its not much.
Women:
Deaf contestant, 22
Jana or Jenna, 23
Joanna (African American); "strong build"
Another lady around 30

2.
FINAL 4 (2W, 2M):
Deaf Girl (as previously mentioned)
Jana or Jenna, 23
Another guy, 26; "strong build"
Another guy, 50

3.
Well, The ChillOne is not done yet ... further intel tells me that:
4th place: Deaf girl
3rd place: Roger or Butch
which leaves Jenna and either Alex, Dave, or Matthew as the sole survivor.
Intel tells me that Jenna was "liked" more than her final 2 competitor (whichever dude that may be). But, we all know how that final episode can go…

4.
Absolutely Not ... my sources were VERY confident about the name of Jana or Jenna; which would point to Jenna M. I am very sure about this.

5.
From my Brazilian contact ...
"This person may not have been the best looking person at the beginning of the show, but, at the end, she was the best looking"
My problem with this whole conversation/debate/discussion and the kink in my intel is that Jenna M. is a complete hottie coming into this thing (from Stuff, to Maxim, to where-ever else she was photographed). Brazilians would love her from the beginning. She does not seem to be a "fit" for my quote above where Shawna might. Shawna is very cute and is the right age given my intel.

6.
Anyway, here is the differentiating intel (very solid) on this subject:
My source (English speaking) actually wrote down the name of this F2 person on a piece of paper for me. They wrote:
Jana

This might be enough to close the door on this topic.
The ChillOne
Jana vs. Jenna

OK, let me try to clarify my intel and attempt to sort out some of the confusion ...
Obi Wan states:
Quote:

"This is all second hand Info. Maybe the guy wrote Jana but told Chillone that it might be Jenna"
BINGO Master Obi Wan !!!
Here's the deal. When chatting about the F4 and associated contestants, my source spoke about this person. I quote:
"Jana, or Jenna ... Jenna, Jana ... something like that"
Get the point. He then took out a piece of paper and wrote down the Final 4 for me. This is right off my piece of paper ...
Jana - 23
guy - 26
Sr. guy - 50
Deaf girl - 22
This is what was physically written on my piece of paper.
Obviously, descriptions of these people were talked about (which I posted as well).
We then spoke about pecking order.
Again ... read into all of this as you desire. I will stick by my information and either rise or fall with it.

You see, my intel came in basically 2 parts. The first were discussions primarily focussing on the F4 and F2. I would say that about 80% of the time was spent on this topic. Once the discussions in this arena slowed (and again, I will emphasize that I did not overly pry for information ... it was more-or-less offered), I asked for knowledge of the first group of people voted off (2nd part - 20%). My sources rattled off the descriptions (in order) of Daniel, Brian (which was meant to by Ryan), Joanna (AA female), and a lady, 30.

7.
“The female that makes it to the Final 2 is rumored to have been "not the most attractive at the beginning of the show, but ends up being the hottest"

8.
OK, speaking of the Jana/Jenna intel (I'm really trying to jar my memory now) ... and the whole pronunciation thing. My english speaking Brazilian translator pronounced the names Jana and Jenna with as close to a hard 'J' as you can get.

9.
Quote:

Missing Amber then responded "OK, I must have misread your original post," and quoted your first post: "I was told that 'Jana or Jenna, 23', was not the most "attractive" girl coming into the show, but, at the end (being in the Final 4) and loosing sound lb.'s, this contestant was considered to be the best looking."

This sounds to me as though you were indeed told that weight was factored in.

Correct, the actual intel/spoiler/information that I received from my source is on Page 24. My source DID NOT mention weight in discussions about this survivor. It was purely based on "looks". As has been talked about recently in this thread, I have sometimes mixed my intel with my speculation. It is not intentional, but a result of trying to provide you the best information as per my sources and as per my discussions. Again, my TRUE information is posted on Page 24. If you desire to read what was actaully stated to me in the Amazon, please refer to this post.

Summary:

With Shawna gone and Deena rumored to be leaving shortly after the merge, Jenna is the only possible F2 female that fits the spoilers…

Jana or Jenna, 23

The ChillOne has acknowledged that the whole discussion about weight was just his assumptions and speculation…I think he misinterpreted the meaning of the original intel…

Jenna “was not the best looking at the beginning of the show”…because Shawna was the best looking! But “she ends up being the hottest” at the end of the show…when compared to those left at the end: Heidi and Christy.

“Jenna was "liked" more than her final 2 competitor”, which sounds like Matthew and fits with the speculation that he is the F2 male.


Looks like a Matthew / Jenna F2 and another 4-3 vote...

The ChillOne's source thinks Jenna was better liked, but she must have to stab a few of her friends in the back to get to F2...

The final Jury should be interesting.



Krautboy


"RE: Jenna F2"
Posted by ivoryElephant on 03-13-03 at 01:30 AM
If Jenna is in the final episode I won't watch it

This is grim indeed.

It has turned into a booby fest where the winner will be determined by male hormones

I think you are right Krautboy.

Is it even worth it to watch knowing that skank Jenna could win?

I can't see her winning. If neleh didn't have the maturity to beat Vecepia then I don't see how Jenna has the maturity to beat anyone but Heidi in the final 2



"RE: Jenna F2"
Posted by bebekid on 03-13-03 at 11:10 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-13-03 AT 11:17 AM (EST)

>It has turned into a booby
>fest where the winner will
>be determined by male hormones

If the current spoiling thinking is correct, then the jury would be made up of 3 men and 4 women. So if it were a straight down the live vote according to gender (not likely), then Jenna wouldn't win.

Edited to say: I'll go so far as to say that of the 3 men (we believe will be) on the jury (Roger, Butch, and Rob) Rob may vote for Jenna for hormonal reasons, but I will almost guarantee you now that Roger and Butch would vote for Matthew.

If the women vote for Jenna just because of "girl solidarity" then I will be very disappointed.

>Is it even worth it to
>watch knowing that skank Jenna
>could win?

She is currently not my favorite, but I will reserve judgement until I see exactly how she goes about making it to the final 2.


"RE: Jenna F2"
Posted by Thaibeach on 03-13-03 at 07:57 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-13-03 AT 08:59 AM (EST)

Is it conceivable that EPMB planted the ChillOne information to mess with spoilers' heads? The info seems just "off" to me. It's very specific for some things, then incredibly ambiguous for others (i.e. the name "Jana" - to the extent that it could apply to 5 of the 8 women). It seems, um, manufactured.

There's enough accuracy in the first four boot predictions to draw us all in as believers. Granted, CO did have the first four boots (or 3 of 4 - who on earth could think Janet was "around 30"?) although in the wrong order.

But then... MB chuckles as we all try to figure out the "Jana/Jenna not good looking (or whatever term was actually used) who became the best looking" puzzle. Is MB that much of a sc*mmer that he'd bother to misdirect deliberately, other than in the actual show or the CBS website?

But the F4 prediction regarding Jana (Jenna?), who "wasn't the best looking" and ended up being so, seems like BS to me.

* "Jana" could be twisted to apply to so many of the women's names: not just Jenna but Shawna, Jeanne, Deena (and even the now deceased Janet or Joanna).

If Chill's source was wrong about Janet's age (by at least 15 years!) why couldn't he be wrong about Jana/Jenna's? If this is legitimate information, I'm leaning towards DEENA, who has been looking much better already. But I'm not convined it's legit.

* As much as I dislike Jenna's personality (conceited b****!), I can't imagine anyone seeing her as not good-looking/best looking right from the start, particularly if the source is supposed to be a Brazilian. Jenna is much more their "type" than any of the other women. Jenna looks better than Heidi (WORST.BOOBJOB.EVER) or any of the remaining women, including Shawna. Maybe I'm in the minority on this - I think Shawna is cute (except for the Carrot Top do) but in terms of "best looking", it ain't Shawna.

I just can't see Jenna making it that far. Surely as the game progresses, and the men stop thinking with their nads and remember they're playing for $1million, her FABULOSITY won't be such a formidable weapon and she will be cut loose before F4. She certainly doesn't contribute anything to the camp other than "cuteness" and "smallness", or however Ho-di put it.

Feel free to rip me to shreds.


"RE: Jenna F2"
Posted by snoocharoo on 03-13-03 at 12:00 PM
Thai...

You took the words out of my mouth. CO's spoiler stinks. Something is NOT sitting right, there is just enough info given to suck people into believeing it's validity but it falls short.

I smell Uncle Cameraman and he smells like herring!

"Don't hate me because I'm beautiful, there are so many other reasons"


"RE: Jenna F2"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-13-03 at 11:50 AM
Krautboy, I agree, particularly on the "attractiveness" issue.

I doubt that the F2 woman was "unattractive" at the beginning of the game, and became more attractive due to weight loss or anything else. It's more likely that there was someone else who was initially considered the most attractive. This woman either got booted early or her looks deteriorated quickly, leaving F2 female as the best-looking.

The Most Attractive one at the beginning could be either Shawna or, stereotypically, blonde Heidi. Heidi is already starting to look pretty ragged, and by Ep 11 she will probably look much worse.

(As an aside -- I also think it's possible that Shawna is the "woman, about 30" -- especially if Shawna goes this week. If she's exhausted and out of it when she leaves, she may have looked older than 23. Then the CO's source's first four boots just reversed Daniel and Ryan, skipping over Janet completely. Joanna and "woman around 30" would be in correct sequence, just one place late.

But either way, that piece of intel is really moot now.)

Re: Deena -- it's also been pointed out that in Portuguese, an initial "D" is pronounced with a "J" sound (this is true), potentially giving Deena a shot in the final two. However, this implies that the source pronounced Deena's name with a "J" sound because he saw it written with a "D". If he'd already seen it written with a "D", he wouldn't write "Jana" on the ChillOne's scrap of paper. So this theory really makes no sense.

One more thing was bothering me about Jenna, but I think I got the answer. CO said he does not think that Topless Jungle Girl (TJG) and F2 female are the same person, because his source spoke about them minutes apart without making any connection between them. CO's interpretation does make sense, and, since I really suspect Jenna is going to be TJG, this was making me lean away from her as the F2 female.

But CO also said that his immediate source was not directly connected to the production. If the source was getting info from the boat drivers, he could have heard about the topless incident at the time it happened, well before F2. If he wasn't given any name for TJG, he might have no idea if she and the F2 female are the same person, and therefore didn't connect them in his conversation with CO.

So we can't rule out TJG as the F2 female. But whether she is TJG or not, I agree that Jenna fits CO's F2 female best.


"How about Christy for F2?"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 03-13-03 at 12:18 PM
How about Christy? No, the name doesn't agree with "Jana/Jenna", etc., but...

Christy isn't the best looking girl there, but if she wins a late RC, a'la Neleh in S4 or Helen in S5, she might get a good hair washing and such that might make her more attractive. ALSO, in S4 at the end, the final three women went through some ritual with "native" beauty products. Could this be a possibility?

There ARE spoilers out there having Christy anywhere from 4th to 1st. Matthew isn't THAT bad, personality wise, but I could easily see him losing to Christy in her underdog role in a Final 2 vote.

Just something to think about...



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged


"RE: How about Christy for F2?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-13-03 at 12:24 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-13-03 AT 12:25 PM (EST)

Dawg, in relation to the CO spoiler, the F2 female can't be Christy, because CO was told that the deaf girl finishes in fourth place.


"RE: How about Christy for F2?"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 03-13-03 at 12:29 PM
The CO spoiler has this weird combination of right/wrong in enough places that things like this (Christy in the F2) must be considered.

And if this source consideres Janet to be 30... I can easily see that this source would consider Deena or Christy becoming "the hottest" girl there after a time... just saying, is all



Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged


"RE: How about Christy for F2?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-13-03 at 01:26 PM
Dawg, yes the CO's info has been off a little up to now. He does believe more strongly in his F4 intel, but yes it's always possible that that is off as well.

What I was trying to say is that the intel makes a very clear distinction between the deaf girl and "Jana/Jenna". These are definitely two different people. The "attractiveness" issue applies to Jana/Jenna, so to speculate that Christy is in F2 because she is the "attractive" one doesn't work -- Christy is the deaf girl.

Christy could certainly be in F2 if the spoiler is wrong, though.


"RE: How about Christy for F2?"
Posted by snoocharoo on 03-13-03 at 12:25 PM
Dawg,

I am convinced that Christy is one of the F2, mostly because I think CO's spoiler has the order for the F4 wrong like he did with the first 4. Plus MB would be a big fool if he didn't capitalize on Christy's disability and give us an underdog to root for.

My PTTE F4 from Ep.1

Matthew
Butch
Deena
Christy

"Don't hate me because I'm beautiful, there are so many other reasons"


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by Chez on 03-13-03 at 12:34 PM
I guess I must admit to being a Deena fan and hope she is the F2 female. But, aside from my bias, it seems in every Survivor so far, there has been a capable, non-obnoxious, 30-ish or 40-ish female to root for. And this person has done very well every time, (except for Gretchen in S1, who was Pagonged as soon as the Tagi alliance could manage it.)

Tina, Teresa, Kathy, Helen.

I really think Deena is going to make it to near the end, at least. If she is not on the outside of the winners' alliance (which we will probably learn tonight, after we see where Butch, Christy and Matt fall), and is there is no A___ H___ like Brian in the picture (which I don't think there is), she can in fact be the F2 female.

Commments?


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-13-03 at 01:15 PM
I"m sorry if someone mentioned this as I briefed over the messages so if someone did apparently I am agreeing with you. Pepe as always you bring up extremely good points. I guess my "gut" tells me a woman wins this based on the premise of this year's theme.

The editing done for this show is well thought out. MB had stated in his chat he loves doing this so lockbox be damned the edit the winner has been a big thing for me.

The Amazon has been designated to signify a woman's power and the BOS has been edited to show us how the men underestimated the women and how the women or some of them wish to utilize what they have to manipulate the men. I guess I have a hard time leaning towards a man winning this season because of the overylying or underlying themes that have been presented during the game so far.

With reference to Jenna. I am certain I would not have thought of her as the winner if not for the information or speculation that CO has provided; it goes against my thought process and that is "dangerous" so because CO has provided vague enough information to give us more than one possible woman as F2 but specific enough to weed a couple out. So to be fair I'm trying to look "outside my box" so to speak to see how Jenna could win this.

RE: Attractive information. Supposedly this person wasn't very attractive, lost a few pounds got better looking (I'm paraphrasing) I did not consider Jenna because I did not consider her in this progression; she is already skinny and there are other women out there aka Jeanne, Deena who fit that progression better. However, Jenna has had no real reason to look attractive except when she is at a situation where she can display herself to a man. I'll bet that we are going to see (come swap or merge time) a transformation of Jenna where her hair is down, her bikini is more on display etc. Could that simply be the non attractive to attractive progression? The weight issue I admit is throwing me off but with CO's "intel" there is a lot to be desired with regard to misinformation or misinterpretation

The name - Jana. In the scope of who relayed what there could be Jeanne, Shawna, Deena, Jenna derived from this. This is just something that may never be concluded until the final two are in their seats. I have no idea how educated the "source" is or for that matter how good the source is with names; we just don't know.

The age - is supposed to be young. Again, as stated this is very difficult to interpret. And I would have to say I am HORRIBLE with ages and quite honestly they all look so rough and tumble out there a younger person may look older and an older person may look younger. There have been many arguments that there is no way Deena or Jeanne could be mistaken for 23 and while I appreciate that, I'd have to say there are probably quite a few people (especially someone observing people in those conditions with perhaps age knowledge based on their own culture) who would guess they were that young. I know in some countries I have seen pictures of women who look SO old and they are my age but their living conditions and quality of life just ages them; perhaps this source has a wife or mother who is 40 and she looks 60 therefore perhaps someone who is "40" looks "20"

Anyway, sorry to hijack the topic at hand but as time is going on and I see how the "theme" seems to be, I'm inclined to think that a woman wins this game. Also it is interesting. I rewatched the episodes and really Jenna is not that bad. I went into this season with preconceived notions of her being a swimsuit model and such and in watching the tapes again though, she appears to be working, she hasn't really said/done anything that horrific and her comments about herself and her physical traits (while somewhat pretentious) haven't been as extensive as Heidi's AND considering her age and her profession I guess I can somewhat see where they are coming from.

The more I look at what MB is showing us about this season, I'm just "seeing" the Amazon woman conquering the man using her skills in whatever fashion necessary. That's not to say it couldn't be a DIFFERENT woman than Jenna but I'm trying to fit the CO puzzle pieces with this as well.


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by snoocharoo on 03-13-03 at 01:39 PM
"Anyway, sorry to hijack the topic at hand but as time is going on and I see how the "theme" seems to be, I'm inclined to think that a woman wins this game. Also it is interesting. I rewatched the episodes and really Jenna is not that bad. I went into this season with preconceived notions of her being a swimsuit model and such and in watching the tapes again though, she appears to be working, she hasn't really said/done anything that horrific and her comments about herself and her physical traits (while somewhat pretentious) haven't been as extensive as Heidi's AND considering her age and her profession I guess I can somewhat see where they are coming from."

Please review last week's episode...there are multiple instances of her bitchiness shining through. Jenna IS that bad. She is the stereotypical spoiled, little rich kid who has gotten by on marginally good looks and silicone. She is like a rotten apple, all nice and perfect on the outside but full of worms on the inside. She is cut from the same cloth as Heidi. They are both biitches.

Zeta Rush...I think that says all we need to know about Jenna.


"Don't hate me because I'm beautiful, there are so many other reasons"


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-13-03 at 01:40 PM
>>The weight issue I admit is throwing me off but with CO's "intel" there is a lot to be desired with regard to misinformation or misinterpretation<<

Veruca, take a look at Missing Amber's question and ChillOne's response in Krautboy's post above. The source never said anything about this contestant losing weight. ChillOne just assumed that was the reason she started looking better.

Krautboy and I both suspect F2 female looked perfectly fine to begin with, ultimately surpassing others either because they got voted out or because their appearances went downhill while her's did not.


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-13-03 at 01:57 PM
TY BR as I said I just tried to glean information so I obviously didn't see that which makes it easier for me to agree with myself

I see yours and KB's approach to the good looking issue and that could be the reason also. Just coming from a perspective of a woman I "feel" that Jenna is going to pull out all the stops once she has men in her camp and rather than what you two have suggested (which makes as much sense) I think she gets "better looking" because she has reason to do so. So far, despite the fact that she is a model and so forth, I haven't really seen her look very good looking with her buff covering her head and her hair up and so forth. The shots we got of her bathing were for our eyes but I'm imagine she has been wearing more "cover up" clothes than we have seen. I doubt she is going to leave nothing to chance once she has the opportunity; why waste it on women? Let the locks flow and show all that skin and see the man go WOW, I didn't know she was that hot!


"RE: The Winner of S6?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-13-03 at 06:30 PM
Oh, I can totally support this theory too. It makes perfect sense.

I guess the thing is that many people presumed that the F2 female a) had not-particularly-attractive features and b) got better looking because she lost weight. We agree that this need not be the case at all.


"Bump"
Posted by bebekid on 03-26-03 at 09:09 PM
In light of the fact that Alex makes the jury, I feel that this theory deserves another look.


"RE: Bump"
Posted by lizziegirl on 03-26-03 at 09:21 PM
I agree, especially considering the scary light Matthew was just painted in on the preview for next week. I think he is pulling a Jack Nicholson in "The Shining". I know I would vote him off, alliance or not as long as he didn't win immunity. Especially when you combine his freaking out with the machete and the cannabilistic background I have heard about.

Combine that with Dave cozing up to Heidi, and Heidi lasting til #6, and I am thinking that Dave may be a good bet....


"ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by Jims02 on 03-27-03 at 07:11 AM
I'm beginning to wonder how we could have an "older man" end up in third place now... Butch seems to be in trouble right now.

I'm not saying that nothing will change, but how about this idea:

10. Roger
9. ???
8. ???
7. ???
6. Heidi
5. ???
4. Christy
3. Deena
2. Rob (muscular build)
1. Jenna (Jana)

(??? are for Dave, Butch, Alex, Matthew)

Is it possible that in the translation from Portugese that the "older man" comment was actually and "older WOman"???

This scenario would make perfect sense, when you look at the alliances.

-Christy goes in the Final 4, so that J/D/R could have their little "Final 3".

-Deena is voted out by Rob or Jenna (prob Rob) in the last TC. Duh... The woman's a walking threat.

-Rob and Jenna are our final 2.

It would make some sense, with the alliances we have. My only problem with this idea is that alliances revealed do not succeed...


In Honor of Summary Writers...
1. "Daniel is the Mole!!!" -SurvivinDawg
2. "Look Jeanne, a fish! EEEEEEEK!" -survivorscott
3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI
4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki (Heidi/Jen)
5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir


"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-27-03 at 08:15 AM
I don't think we can discount Butch yet just because it appears he is in trouble. He totally, along with Dave, knows they are in deep doo doo. Roger even admitted if he had thought he was in trouble he would have perched a lot longer, he didn't know the men of Jamburu skunked him (which was stupid because there was no love lost over at old Tambi with him and them)

Butch and Dave are desperate for immunity now
We also know that Deena first and then Rob is calling the shots
Deena knows the strong men have to go who are not alligned with her (Dave)
However, Deena and Heidi or Jenna mentioned MATTHEW as another strong male to take out.

I don't believe that Deena has any other male there, except Rob in her mind to continue with and I think that if Dave does go, she may enlist her girls, etc. with Rob to get rid of Matthew especially considering Matthew's oddities now. Rob will agree with Deena cuz believe it or not, we finally found someone that Rob is listening to, Deena.

I am still of the mindset that Jenna may be the final two or Deena because of the CO information. I am not convinced that Matthew is yet with the CO information, Alex, Dave both fit the description and I know it is a stretch but if CO's source is five feet tall and flabby, he may view Rob as big/strong.


"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by Thaibeach on 03-27-03 at 08:59 AM
Veruca, you make some very good points. Butch, who's probably not much of an immunity threat, may be safe for awhile.

Rob is itching to get rid of Dave, who IS an immunity threat.

But if Dave has an immunity run a la Colby, Matt (immunity threat AND weird) or Alex (immunity threat) are likely to be the alternate targets.

I could see Alex fitting ChillOne's description (or Dave or Matt, for that matter). But Rob? Nah.



"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by SurvivorJoel on 03-27-03 at 10:05 AM
Butch in F4? Am not sure about that. My mind was sort of stuck to the fact that Butch, Dave and Roger voted for Christy in TC 7. Doesn't anyone feel that's noteworthy and could change the whole way that Christy would play the game? Once she finds out, THAT should be a 'defining moment' in Christy's life! Would she trust her still? Get the picture?

"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by SurvivorJoel on 03-27-03 at 10:19 AM
I almost agree with your theory, except for the F# in this case. If Rob were to choose (or even Deena) if he wins IC, he'll think he's better off with Deena in Final 2 because Jenna has Heidi, probably Christy, and two or three men to vote for her in the final vote. Besides, hasn't anyone noticed that as Deena loses weight, she's become better looking as well?

"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by Cathy the Canadian on 03-27-03 at 10:43 AM
The problem is, even if chillone meant 50 year old woman - would you describe Deena as a 50 year old?

And Rob as well built? That's not the first thing that comes to my mind for him.

I'm also having difficulty seeing how Butch can survive a seemingly imminent pagonging.

Maybe he is the one that does a Colby immunity run. Also - revealed alliances always fail. Look for the Rob/Deena relasionship to break down in coming episodes.


"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-27-03 at 11:18 AM
Butch will survive because Deena and Rob are not planning to run a pagong show. Their priority right now is to get rid of immunity threats (and, in the case of Roger, an insufferable jackass).

Deena wants all the strong men gone, which means Alex and Matt are on her chopping block after Dave. Rob's plan probably differs slightly, but Butch is nowhere near the forefront of his bootee list either.


"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by ulalame on 03-27-03 at 11:27 AM
Agreed, Brownroach. You have put your finger on what was evading me in analyzing the end game -- i.e. why would Deena take out Matt and Alex before Butch? But I think you hit the nail on the head -- she wants the strong men gone, and this will be her undoing in the end.

Potential boot order:

E8: I think this will be Matt or Dave. Dave seems the most likely, but I think there will need to be a bit more development of the Dave/Heidi storyline in order to justify Deena et al taking out Heidi before Butch/Christy. My prediction, Dave is target, but gets immunity. Matt goes, because they have a decent 6 person alliance without him, and he goes all psycho on them.

E9: Alex goes -- maybe Dave gets immunity again, maybe Alex attempts to organize a coup against Deena, but he fits the "strong men must go" theme of Deena's targets.

E10: Dave goes.

E11: Heidi goes (she was in bed with the enemy, and can't be trusted). Butch/Christy are now a voting block, along with Jenna/Deena/Rob.

E12: Deena goes -- Butch/Christy and Jenna/Rob take her down, and she gets her come-uppance.

E13-14: Butch and Christy go, leaving a final two of Jenna and Rob. Jenna wins.


"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-27-03 at 11:50 AM
Yes, ulalame, it's pretty clear Dave will go next unless he wins IC.

Dave was Deena/Rob's prime target. They only took a detour to boot Roger because the women realized Roger couldn't be admitted to the jury, and because, let's face it, everyone hated his guts.

Unless Matt goes really bonkers, Rob and Deena will not deviate from the plan. But what happens if Dave wins IC? It would probably be time to gang up on Alex, not Matt. Rob thinks Matt is stupid and controllable; he can't manipulate Alex as well.

I think Rob will arrange to get rid of Deena sooner than you have her going, though. He may not be thinking about it right now, but it's coming.


"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by ulalame on 03-27-03 at 01:12 PM
Another thought: I think there might be more to the Heidi/Dave thing than we're seeing. Heidi after all did mention Matt as a potential bootee, and made the persuasive case to vote out Roger over Dave, who appeared to be the prime target of Deena/Rob.

"RE: ChillOne Interpretation"
Posted by Loree on 03-27-03 at 02:25 PM
Heidi may have become closer to Dave than we noticed while they were on the same tribe. Now she is realizing how close Jenna and Deena became to the guys on their tribe. So Heidi may be trying to cover her bases. Dave is the one that pulled Heidi in to his alliance to boot Jeanne. She feels sort of close to him and is always suggesting someone else to boot when Dave's name comes up.

"Jenna or Alex wins"
Posted by benjapol on 03-30-03 at 02:33 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-03 AT 06:53 AM (EST)

Anyone remember the promo befor episode 1 ? (during the superbowl, I believe)
"Who will be the ultimate survivor? Jenna, swimsuit model? or Alex, product manager? "
Does it mean they're final2? We'll see. If so, it's more likely that the swimsuit model wins.

But last Thursday at TC When JP said "Only one will be the sole survivor", the camera was at Alex, and then stopped Deena. It could mean Alex or Deena wins also.


"Jenna or Matthew as the final 2"
Posted by TribalTex29 on 03-30-03 at 02:29 PM
MY guess is Rob, Alex, Heidi and Christy will fall next, leaving the final four as Matthew, Jenna, Deena and Butch, with Butch knowing he needs the immunity, Deena will go a la Kathy, Matt and Butch will not be aligned on the same side (but the video will show them as still alligned under the original male Tribe) and surprise surprise, Matthew will win final immunity, giving the second spot to Jenna (knowing Butch is a non-threatening, non-annoying player who would get the most votes) and then that would mean Jenna would have the votes to win (Deena, Dave, Heidi, Rob) compared to Matthew (Alex, Christy, Butch) It almost always has happened that the winner of the final immunity has lost ie: Kelly (S1), Colby (S2), Kim (S3), and Neleh (S4) (Brian from S5 was a fluke, but he really was the best player, in my opinion.

Just an educated guess.