Hey! Didja miss me? C'mon...admit it. You did didn't ya? Fine! I didn't miss you either! Nyaah!

Many thanks to my pal Dave for handling this thing while I've been indisposed.

And now, the Rules! Brought to you for the second time in history, in interpretive dance!

The Rules

*Superman sways to the right and then the left, with both hands waving in the air*

Which means:

1. Please put the name of your choice for this week's bootee IN THE SUBJECT HEADING!This is really easy. Just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" and replace with your vote, i.e., Christy. This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Oh, and btw... nicknames are tougher to tally unless they're REALLY obvious without actually reading your vote.

*Superman jumps up and down and the collapses in the floor*

Which means:

2. Reply ONLY to this post! Curves on women are good. Curves on vote threads are bad. The first part bears repeating: I like curves on women.

*While still colapsed in the floor, Superman holds both hands up in the traffic cop stop position*

Which means:

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

If it just so happens that you wanna change your vote for whatever reason, REPLY TO YOUR ORIGINAL POST! Your new post heading should read "VOTE CHANGE: Dave (or Whoever)". That said, there is not exception to the fact that curves on women are good.

*Superman puts a finger to his lips, making the hush motion*

Which means:

3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD! DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please.

*Superman jumps up and stands perfectly still, rejecting his individuality*

Which means:

4. No sig pics! It was suggested that because this can be such a long thread, sig pics make it really hard to load for folks with dial-up connections. So show some respect to your slower brethren (and sistren).

And as always, HAPPY VOTING!

Criminals From the Neck Up

• Shawna,forehead, 09:55 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,railfan, 09:55 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,IceCat, 10:00 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,lizzmac, 10:14 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,Krautboy, 10:17 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,J Slice, 10:27 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,RudyRules, 10:27 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,LeftPinky, 10:38 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,Krendie, 10:45 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,PepeLePew13, 10:49 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,ejm92, 11:12 PM, 03-11-03
• The Shawna dozen,bergdogg, 11:24 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna,Thaibeach, 11:39 PM, 03-11-03
• ROGER,ivoryElephant, 11:44 PM, 03-11-03
• Shawna !!!!!,katem, 00:03 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,smokedog, 00:41 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,cowboyroo, 01:47 AM, 03-12-03
  • Vote change Jeanne,cowboyroo, 03:32 PM, 03-13-03
• Dave,SherpaDave, 03:40 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,ringtheory, 04:38 AM, 03-12-03
• Wanna Shawna,KeithFan, 08:41 AM, 03-12-03
• Roger,VerucaSalt, 08:43 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,samboohoo, 09:11 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Q, 09:12 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Cin, 09:23 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,bebekid, 09:33 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,travelingbetty, 09:43 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,jkokoj, 10:23 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,SurvivinDawg, 10:37 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,FesterFan1, 10:55 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Wacko Jacko, 11:17 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,munson, 11:27 AM, 03-12-03
• Roger,djandy, 11:28 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,smrtNsassybnkr, 11:37 AM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Boilermaker, 11:45 AM, 03-12-03
• SHAWNA,MikeD, 11:59 AM, 03-12-03
• shawna,wendyp, 12:54 PM, 03-12-03
• Vote Tally,Q, 01:34 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Bebo, 01:57 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Loree, 02:15 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Wheezy, 02:18 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,snoocharoo, 02:26 PM, 03-12-03
• ROGER,BMH, 03:40 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna!,wildchickenhunter, 03:45 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Brownroach, 03:54 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,janisella, 03:55 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,steppingrazor42, 04:02 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,blacknwhitedog, 04:21 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,Cathy the Canadian, 04:32 PM, 03-12-03
• shawna,smiles, 04:49 PM, 03-12-03
• Shauna,Rain Crow, 04:59 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,NTK, 06:15 PM, 03-12-03
• R-O-G-E-R,BaquaR13, 07:11 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,GuessItRains, 07:48 PM, 03-12-03
• Shawna,dabo, 08:20 PM, 03-12-03
• sh -YAWN - a,waterbug, 08:32 PM, 03-12-03
  • Shawna,whoami, 10:35 PM, 03-12-03
• HEY SHAWNA...,Round Robin, 00:17 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,corcam, 01:08 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,bubbastan, 01:49 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,Prometheus, 01:51 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,sleeeve, 02:04 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,SteffiGurl, 05:23 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,Jims02, 07:15 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,MDSkinner, 09:20 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,survivorscott, 09:34 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,Long Dong Pagong, 09:53 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawnanananananananananananana,DeclaringJihadOnSurvivor, 10:01 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,scante60a, 10:05 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,mistofleas, 10:23 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,Spidey, 10:51 AM, 03-13-03
• SHAWNA,bobstew617, 10:52 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawn is Gona,AresMars, 11:09 AM, 03-13-03
• Roger,buckeyegirl, 11:34 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,zzz, 11:46 AM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,moonbaby, 12:32 PM, 03-13-03
• Vote Tally #2,ejm92, 12:49 PM, 03-13-03
• SHAWNA,anotherkim, 01:08 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,s_man, 02:12 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,tattletale, 02:16 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,ShowMeTheWinner, 02:46 PM, 03-13-03
  • Jeanne,Markopolo100, 02:55 PM, 03-13-03
• RE: Jeanne,Devious Weasel, 03:02 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,L82LIFE, 03:38 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,Squarepants party of one, 04:02 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna, spawna of boob-alliance,NorthOfBoston, 04:32 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,Kokoro, 04:41 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna - get me out of here!!!,FSUGUY, 07:46 PM, 03-13-03
• Shawna,WackeeChik, 07:50 PM, 03-13-03

LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 09:57 PM (EST)

Edited because it's hard to type with a 2 year old son on your lap...

Per KillerDanaH, Shawna exits ep4 (last week) or ep 5. Ergo ep5.
(She also confirmed that Shawna & Alex started dating at the LL resort.)
Per Boston Guy1, Alex exits ep5 or ep6. Ergo ep6.
(The Boston Guy1 spoiler has Alex ousted by Jenna/Heidi & Rob, a swap result. The vidcap analysis shows that there is in fact swap.)

Can't wait for the ep7 previews...

Great team effort here at SB!! (All we had over the weekend was a short list of 4...)

forehead

LAST EDITED ON 03-11-03 AT 09:58 PM (EST)

then Alex, Dave and Roger...

I'm set for the next four eps!

ETA thanks to all the great detectives here!

She get's bumped to Tambaqui and then is shown the door.

Real life has intruded on me being as involved as much as I usually am (barely above lurker stage), but the excellent reasoning on this page has me convinced. Great job everybody!

Lizzmac

This week started out as a seemingly unsolvable challenge, but the spoiling community came together in an impressive team effort…we pooled our resources and systematically seem to have solved it once again.

Weight Loss:

Weight loss is our most reliable pre-merge spoiling tool, narrowing down the field to those without significant weight loss reports: Shawna, Jenna, Dave, Alex and Roger.

Milkshaky Spoiler:

Milkshaky apparently has a very reliable source close to Heidi, who has reported that Heidi and her “friend” go far in the game. The feather alliance and storyline seems to confirm Jenna as Heidi’s “friend”. The Chillone also believes “Jana” is Jenna, so she’s safe.

Daniel’s Chat:

Daniel’s comment about Roger suggest that he didn’t spend any time with him at the lodge… "And if there is a merge, the girls won't stand for Roger.", suggesting Roger makes the merge, but not far beyond. Roger appears safe until the merge.

OFG Theory:

Roger has also faded into the background, and is not featured in any of the previews this week, as the theory states he would be if he were going. Roger is safe this week.

Editing:

Dave’s story is being developed this week. He is featured as the ambassador of his tribe and in a good position to assure himself a safe spot on the “new” tribes. It’s too soon for Dave to go this week, but he’s being set up for the merge boot position. Dave is safe until the merge.

KillerDanaH and Boston Guy 1:

Shawna is sick and Alex is injured. We also have two posters claiming to have second hand knowledge of when Shawna and Alex leave the game. KillerDanaH confirmed the rumor of Alex and Shawna getting to know each other at the resort.

KillerDanaH also claims Shawna gets voted off EP4 or EP5.
Boston Guy 1 claims to know that Alex gets voted off EP5 or EP6.

Both reports seem credible…so, combining the spoilers, we can assume that Shawna goes to the resort EP5 and Alex follows in EP6, where they start the relationship we have been hearing about.

Switch/Swap:

The three main arguments for a swap:

1. Boston Guy1 Spoiler (from SS) that reports Alex voted off by Heidi/Jenna and Rob in EP5/6. This could only happen after a swap (early merge has been ruled out).

2. Forehead’s observation that the “Battle of the Sexes” theme has disappeared for EP5. Swap makes the BOS theme obsolete.

3. Split screen vidcap of the IC Boat Race is used to hide the other participants in the boats. (no other IC images shown) This is not necessary unless there are teammates of the opposite sex in the boats, which would reveal a swap.

New Tribes:

IceCat has confirmed and clearly demonstrated, with vidcap evidence, that a swap does occur and that Matthew and Deena are both on the New Jaburu..

Dave is seen in the IC Boat Race image wearing his blue buff. We can then conclude that Dave and Jenna, the two “ambassadors”, stay with their original tribes.

Heidi is “shocked”, shown wearing a yellow buff. She remains on New Jaburu.

The Boston Guy 1 Spoiler reported that Alex gets voted out by Rob, Heidi and Jenna in EP5 or EP6. That means Rob must also be one of the New Jaburu, post swap.

Regardless of the whether the swap is random, or voluntary, or selected by Dave and Jenna, by process of elimination we are left with New tribes that look like this:

New Jaburu : Deena, Jenna, Heidi, Matthew, Rob, and Alex
New Tambaqui: Dave, Roger, Butch, Christy, Jeanne, and Shawna.

Looking at the resulting tribes, it appears the ambassadors may have some say in who they select or swap to the other tribe. Dave apparently keeps his alliance with Roger and Butch in tact. Jenna keeps her alliance with Deena and Heidi together…

CBS Press Release:

..."A Surprise Rocks the Tribe Dynamics..."

"Just when the tribes settle into their environment, a surprise tempts the existing alliances within the tribes..."

"With this unforseen turn of events, the survivors are presented with new tribe dynamics which may ultimately challenge current alliances..."

It’s the "alliances" that are being tempted... stay together or rebuild new alliances?

Dave and Jenna must decide who the will keep and who to swap. Both decide to try and keep their alliance in tact, with the exception of Jenna dumping Shawna and Dave getting rid of Alex who is injured and “untrustworthy”.

They go back to their tribes to "present" the swap decisions and the new tribe dynamics that result. After the 3-3 swap the "current alliances" will face a new tribe dynamic which may "challenge" them...a 3-3 tie if voting along gender lines if they go to TC.

The temptation will come for those that may want to jump ship to the other alliance after the swap.

But Shawna is sick and a liability to her tribe, unable to sit her out at 6v6, the New Tambaqui lose the physical Boat/Relay Race IC, and go to TC where Shawna finally gets to go home…

Krautboy

Damn! Once again, I go after Krautboy and appear to be a lemming... but we all knew that she was due to go... so there!

-=J=-

Great spoiling everyone.
Shawna probably gets swaped to Tam, then gets booted.

Who wouldn't swap Shawna at this point? She heads to the "former Tarzan" tribe and gets the boot - not soon enough!

Dave's going to pick her and then regret it. Bye, bye Shawna!

Yeah, what Krautboy said.

I would have preferred to wait another day to be absolutely sure of my pick but I'll be going away for a few days so got to vote now.

What pushed me over the edge in voting for Shawna was the same-highschool spoiler that said Shawna is going in either Ep.4 or Ep.5 tied in with the BostonGuy spoiler that Alex goes in Ep.5 or Ep.6 -- and also with the fact that Shawna is being featured again moaning that she wants to go. They're not going to keep milking it to attract viewers - the second time is the charm, out she goes. Remember Ted and Ghandia? The promos played it up big time in Ep.3 causing people to think that Ghandia would go... but Jed got booted and the promos again played it up for Ep.4 and Ghandia got the boot there. Same scenario here for Shawna's belly-aching.

No reason to ruin this beautiful string of votes.

With so many different questions being made, you think the boot would at least be a bit harder to figure out.

Alt pick: Everyone's favorite Chef, Keith Famie!!!

"This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham
Me and Heidi Strobel share the same birthday!!!! GO HEIDI!!!

Buh bye now.

Roger is toast

All you peeps at the switch thread were brilliant. Now I have to go and change my PTTE.

For the same reasons that everyone else says.

As usual, Krautboy puts it forth most eloquently...

Due to Snewser's information, but not going to be a lemming without figuring a way this could happen.

Jeanne could possibly go is if maybe only one member is swapped...It is pretty clear that Matthew is in the boat with Deena, but really other than that we have no hard evidence that there is indeed a swap.
the Jenna/Dave date could be an RC duo win, which would stir things up a bit.

Matthew knows he's next to go for the men, so he chooses to swap.

The Rob joining with Heidi/Jenna to boot Alex could possibly happen after a merge....

I think Jeanne would jump ship and go to the men's tribe where she would still get the boot since there are no struggles between the men and no reason to boot any one else...

So, possibly Matthew goes to Jabaru, Jeanne goes to Tambaqui. Jabaru wins immunity, and Jeanne ends up going...Shawna can then go Ep. 6, and Alex after the merge since the men will be up 6-4 and can afford to ditch someone....

Same reason as last week, i.e., because I'm a DAW.

Twist, merge, or neither, whatever way it'll be Shawna. She bitches so much she gets her way. She wins Alex, not S6.

nuff said

My brain says Shawna perhaps it is because I had higher hopes for her I'm not inclined to vote her out at this moment. There is still a whole lot of time to change to the most reasonable boot.

I'm just going on a hinky feeling for now based on the men and women now mixing and how I can see Roger as the stereotypical "first boot candidate" even though he would be the fifth boot. Since two tribes, IMO are now switching up and they were solely male and female, I almost have a first episode feel for the boot and that person a lot of the times is the overbearing bossy one and I can see quite a number of people despite which tribe he is on not tolerating him.

Pepe and I are on the same page in relating it to the Ted/Ghandia blow up. Shawna served her purpose last week, and will be an easy target this week.

Also, Daniel sounded pretty stung in his interviews when talking about Shawna. Perhaps Shawna rejected Daniel when Alex showed up at LL, leaving Daniel to comment on there being other fish in the sea.

I think she is gone. It makes sense, that Heidi, Jenna and Deena would stick together on one tribe, leaving Shawna easy pickings on the new tribe, if they go to council.

Cin

*waves to Supes*

The tribes are at 6 each which means that no one will sit out the IC. Whichever tribe Shawna is on will lose because she will bring them down, and they will give her the boot at TC.

Kudos to Krautboy (what would we do without you?), forehead, Brownroach et al for a spoiling job well done.

And props as always to IceCat for an incredible job on the Deena/Matthew vidcap. I'm speechless.

bebe

most logical boot, her story is done

KrautBoy amazes me to no end! You are one great analyzer! (is that a word)LOL!

First, extreme KUDOS to an excellent spoiling group on this board for some terrific analysis. Why you SB peeps don't get more credit on other boards is beyond my comprehension.

But, I will toot my own horn just a bit (*toot!*) because I've been predicting a merge/swap/livetogether in Ep. 5 for a very long time.(/toot)

Krautboy's vote message has succintly summed up the spoiler material available to us, so consider yourselves referenced.

Now, the "First Four" were a fairly obvious group, we just had to figure out the order. Now comes what I call the "Next Three". Based on spoiler info, and the show presentation to date, these are Shawna, Dave and Alex. Roger is probably on the outer fringe of this, but I have him pegged for the first jury slot, so I'll just discuss pre-jury for now.

Shawna looks obvious. But, as some of you know (but no one has ever seemed to care), I always utilize the show itself and the CBS site to look for possible misdirections.

On the CBS site, in addition to the Misdirection material (which virtually assures us that Alex and Jeanne are staying), is this poll question:
Will Shawna bounce back and regain her strength?
a) Yes, she's young.
b) No, she's too weak.
c) Maybe, if she drinks water.

Horrors! Usually CBS asking about a person in this manner means that this person is safe. But... that hasn't QUITE been the case this season. So I'm looking at the question, and it subtly suggests that Shawna will stay, one way or the other. In other words, choice D "It doesn't matter because she's gone now." is probably what I should be thinking.

Moving steadily along, I went to the popularity polls. Heidi, followed by Jenna. No help there, we know these two Cute Girls are staying. So I delved deeper into the graphs... well, not only do these not seem to conform with the pictures, butHeidi has taken a drop. Jenna is midrange. Now Christy is most popular. No surprise there, everyone wants the Deaf Girl to do well. But next is... Dave! So this really has me scared of this Shawna-picking orgy. Then I realized... this just means Dave's picture gets up there NEXT week.

So I looked at the new tribal arrangments (Krautboy and TDT are VERY likely correct here). Now I just don't see Dave getting the boot from his buddies Roger and Butch (remember, he picked them to stay with him!), and Christy, Jeanne and Shawna are just not a close alliance going in. The guys in this new tribe are the guys who would most likely be supportive of Christy's deafness (I can see Butch and Roger being protective fatherly types, even as I type). Shawna's been complaining and being sick, so she'd be a VERY easy agreement among the others...

In the other tribe, the Cute Girls are strong, Alex is not an option (CBS misdirection), and he needs time for his injury story arc (WHO invented that term? Probably the same person who voted for Bebo in Ep. 2!) to complete. Chessplayer Rob would sacrifice his male buddies in an instant to get in with the CGs and Deena. That leaves Matthew as their target, and spoiler info suggests Matthew hangs around (if he doesn't actually win!).

So I conclude that New Tambaqui heads to TC, and the easy mercy boot is executed. Alex will join Shawna shortly, and them doing it Dawgstyle will make Daniel sick with jealousy, hence his derisive comments about Alex.

If they don't shoot her first.

Fester

The time is here.

Not as obvious to the GP as it is to all of us. The casual viewer doesn't know about the switch and, based on last week, Shawna has the protection of her alliance so even though she's sick, she's safe. Jeanne, as the outsider, would appear more vulnerable.

Since the next month of episodes have been spoiled by the many brilliant minds on this board (E6 Alex, E7 Dave, E8 Roger) the next question is who gets the boot in E9 - Jeanne or Deena?

Since typically the people featured in previews and teasers as being weak or in trouble are safe, both Shawna and Alex were featured so I'm guessing they stay. Also, this season both Daniel and Joanna were practically edited out of the episode before they were booted, and Roger was very UTR last episode. The first several episodes established Roger's bossiness, and Matthew, Rob, and Alex have all mentioned wanting to vote him off. Also, Daniel mentioned in his web chat that IF there is a merge he could see Roger grating on the nerves of the ladies. If we speculate that there is a merge/swap/cohabitation this week, this would set this up nicely.

My logical choice would be a Shawna boot, except for the very fact that CBS featured her crying and whining again. I think if she was the bootee they wouldn't show that because she looked like she felt better at tribal council and CBS wouldn't have highlighted her continued weakness and would have left us wondering if she got better.

As much as I like her, I think her illness will cause her to go this week. Oh well, at least she is on her way to a new love...Alex

LAST EDITED ON 03-12-03 AT 11:45 AM (EST)

Talk about using our spoiler skills this week.

Now who wins reward challenge?

Edited to remove sigpic.

but i wish it was Rob...

She is not going to recover well enough for the new tribe to keep her. Jenna will trade her and keep Deena to keep the team strong.

Hope I am not stepping on any toes.

36 Votes Cast Thus Far

Shawna - 32 votes
Roger - 3 votes
Dave - 1 vote

All others are UTR so far, here at SBlows

* Bebo drops to the floor as if fainting *

...which means that the weak one will finally get her wish.

* Bebo bows in homage to Krautboy *

...which means, as usual, that Krautboy has eloquently summed up all of the wonderful spoiler information that leads to a Shawna conclusion.

* Bebo sticks out her tongue *

...which means that she submitted her Shawna boot pick on Spoiler Island yesterday before the vote thread, so she is not a lemming.

* Bebo blows kisses to Supes *

...which means she loved his interpretive dance - the cape adds so much to it!

This almost seems too easy.

oh, you know, just pulled her name out of a hat.

Hey!!! Save room for me on the Lemming Train!!!

I need to be different and I think Shawna getting booted is a bit too obvious once again this week, I have her pegged as Boot #6

I just have a feeling Roger is gone

Do you have any tickets left on the Lemming train?

Shaw nuff. Krautboy, IceCat and everyone else got this Ep in the bag.

I'm going with the group again.

man, I am so bummed that the skinny twins start calling the shots, they are really drivivng me nuts, hopefully MB just setting us up for their future exits. I guess Shawna gets to finally go home.

She's worthless and weak.

Read Krautboy, then read Dawg.

.

Sick, sick, sick of the Amazon (the river that is!), Shauna is certainly no Amazon!

Rain Crow

The analysis this week was amazing.

I don't see Shawna going yet, this is just too soon. They wouldn't have done so much misdirection last episode if she just goes this episode. I think they switch and Roger leaves...

The Reality Show Queens!!

BaQuAr13