LAST EDITED ON 11-13-02 AT 12:37 PM (EST)

This may have been discussed elsewhere; if so, I missed it so point me to it.

In his vote message, Krautboy said this: "If two Chuay Gahn jump ship (Brian and Ted or Helen and Jan) they become #4 and #5 in the Sook Jai hierarchy, not gaining anything for the risk."

I agree with this about Ted and Brian, but I am not so sure about Helen and Jan.

Helen:
1) Helen and Clay apparently don't like each other, IMHO. Helen has voted for Clay in the past, and he took exception.

2) Helen made the remarks about believing Ghandia over Ted, not to mention all but calling Ted a rapist.

3) Helen has shown some disdain for the guys not doing enough of the chores. I doubt she's heard Brian's comments; in fact, if she has a rapport with any of the guys, it would be Brian.

4) Helen also seems to have a problem with other people having money, saying that not needing the money is a reason to vote someone off.

5) Helen probably realizes that she's at best the 4th wheel on CG, and possibly the fifth. DOES it do her harm to consider going with SJ?

Jan:
1) Other CGs said they would vote her out if they went to TC again... but since the tribes are merging, this might not be as impactful as it was once.

2) Jan and Jake seem to get along well (choking chickens, et. al.)

3) Jan chose the CG tribe and may feel some loyalty to it, but she might also see that her best shot at the Final Three is to ally with SJ and hope to infiltrate enough that it's her with Jake at the end.

So I'm left with the feeling that Helen might really consider breaking off from the CG males and trying to form her own group. If you think about it, what DOES she have to lose by trying? But what does she have to GAIN? I'd say a possible shot at the Final 3 if she plays her cards right.

The concentration of her on the recipes (besides MB helping her sell a cookbook post-show ) probably is designed to have us think of gender-based alliances, a'la S-III, but also shows her strife with the CG males.

Furthermore, while Erin has been compared to Zzzoe, I would like to suggest that HELEN is the real Zoe comparison: not particularly well liked. Might this be a time that everyone pauses and gets rid of the gripey girl?!?!?

Where am I wrong in any of this?

"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

• RE: Just have to ask... (Krautboy please read),zzz, 12:54 PM, 11-13-02
  • RE: Just have to ask... (Krautboy please read),frisky, 01:33 PM, 11-13-02
• RE: Just have to ask... (Krautboy please read),Brownroach, 01:49 PM, 11-13-02
  • RE: Just have to ask... (Krautboy please read),erikman, 01:57 PM, 11-13-02
• Timing is off a week...,Krautboy, 04:07 PM, 11-13-02
  • RE: Timing is off a week...,SurvivinDawg, 06:29 PM, 11-13-02
• RE: Just have to ask... (Krautboy please read),bondt007, 11:00 AM, 11-14-02
  • RE: Just have to ask... (Krautboy please read),SurvivinDawg, 12:19 PM, 11-14-02
• Brian/Ted Partnership,dajaki, 12:43 PM, 11-14-02

Well--I am not Krautboy and would never claim to speak for him--but I think that he believes that if 2 people want to jump (e.g., Helen and Jan) they are smarter to wait after one more TC--when they can jump at an even 2-2 field. This way their new "team" would have a 4-3 advantage (which may not be as good as a 5-3 advantage--but in this game one is enough). Once Clay, Brian and Ted were voted off, it would be even at Helen/Jan vs. the 2 remaining SJs. If they jump NOW, they are immediately outnumbered 3-2 in their new "team."

That is certainly how I might play it if I were Helen or Jan. The problem is unless you end up against the other "traitor" you are guaranteed to lose to any of the SJs in the final vote. This still might be better odds that sticking with Brian/Ted/Clay or jumping now where, in either case, being outnumbered at final five time is virtually guaranteed.

I think that if Helen were to make a move she would have to do it alone. She must know that Jan is a MamaKim who will never leave her original tribe, even if it means losing a million bucks. Helen jumps around to whatever scenario suits her the best. She jumped in with the guys to boot Ghandia. She'll do what she has to do to save her ass this week, and next week and so on. Her problem now is that she doesn't have the numbers to take with her. Jan seems content to get the boot when it's "her time" (just like Lucky).

Just as MamaKim contributed to Teresa's demise by doing nothing, Jan's unwillingness to save herself will be Helen's undoing.

Dawg,

I don't think Krautboy means that Helen and Jan wouldn't *consider* it, but a defection that unifies the three SJ's in a majority bloc does nothing to guarantee Helen and Jan a better finish slot.

There is one thing that might entice Helen and Jan: if Jake and Penny promised to get rid of Ken first at Final 5. Then Helen and Jan would move up one place from where they are in the CG hierarchy.

But they would have to force a tie with Jake/Penny at the final 4 vote. Still risky. And I wouldn't trust Jake and Penny to keep their promise anyway.

Sticking with the CGs would enable a swing vote scenario at Final 5, also risky but probably a better risk.

i think jan is ted and brians 3rd, she is always with ted.
if anyone goes to sucks it would be clay but if he goes it will
be while the cats away. helen could go, but jake is not working her, and he is rich and helen hates rich people.

Dawg: The points you make are all legitimate; it's really more an issue of the timing. Any move to break off just makes much more sense NEXT week, "While the Cat's away...".

ZZZ, Frisky, Brownroach and Erikman explain it very nicely...

In response to some of your comments:

DOES it do
>her harm to consider going
>with SJ?

No it doesn't. As Brownroach points out, I'm sure Helen does "consider" going with Sook Jai. But as ZZZ explains, she comes to the conclusion that it's smarter to wait for one more TC.

>So I'm left with the feeling
>that Helen might really consider
>breaking off from the CG
>males and trying to form
>her own group. If
>you think about it, what
>DOES she have to lose
>by trying? But what
>does she have to GAIN?
> I'd say a possible
>shot at the Final 3
>if she plays her cards
>right.

I agree that she doesn't have much to lose, but she has much more to gain if she waits one week. As Frisky points out, "Helen jumps around to whatever scenario suits her best." She works for the military and has probably traveled around, forced to adapt to ever changing situations. "She'll do whatever she needs to to save her ass this week". In this case, I think she decides to wait...until the "Cat's away" next week. She's been very patient and methodical in her approach so far, I don't see her rushing into a premature move.

>The concentration of her on the
>recipes (besides MB helping her
>sell a cookbook post-show
>) probably is designed to
>have us think of gender-based
>alliances, a'la S-III, but also
>shows her strife with the
>CG males.

I have speculated that Helen may win the IC this week, explaining why she is suddenly edited "in strife with the CG males". MB may want to add drama and suspense to what may otherwise be an uneventful IC, if Helen wins Immunity when she doesn't really need it.

>Furthermore, while Erin has been compared
>to Zzzoe, I would like
>to suggest that HELEN is
>the real Zoe comparison: not
>particularly well liked. Might
>this be a time that
>everyone pauses and gets rid
>of the gripey girl?!?!?

I think the editing may set it up exactly as you describe, only to have Helen be saved by Immunity.

>Where am I wrong in any
>of this?

Don't think your wrong in any of it Dawg, just think the timing is off a week...

Krautboy

Thanks, Krautboy, and thanks, everyone for the excellent replies. I agree that next week might be Helen's turn for the swim of shame.

"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

IF the thought then is Ken this week and Helen next week, at least for now, might we consider Jan as the E 10 boot? Does Erins "I love Jan" spoiler mean anything? And IF that's the case, The final five would be Clay, Brian and Ted (old CG) and Jake and Penny (old SJ). Would old CG let it get THAT close (3 to 2)?

To me, part of the issue is, and has been, that CG isn't this tightly-knit tribe like Kucha or Ogakor were. I don't think Helen is tight with the guys, and Jan might (or might NOT) seek better opportunities if she thinks she can get them.

With so few SJ left, it gives Helen some options. I was thinking that Helen might jump ship by herself, which means it would be better for her to do it NOW rather than next week. But, as I posted in my vote thread, there are probably enough forces at work against her to make it impossible for her to make headway.

As to Jan being the E10 boot, it is going to depend on some tribal dynamics. If the CG guys think Helen IS making a deal, for right or for wrong, they may react by going ahead and pagonging SJ.

"All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

I think we need to carefully consider this alliance. I see Ted as being in it, but Brian is just too slick (at least he is in his own mind). If Ted wins even one IC, and Brian survives the TC, Brian will view him as a threat and may turn on him. He should curry a little favor with the weak and weak-minded to guarantee a top 2 spot.