What the hell happened last night? I went through all of the scenerios and of the two that were likely the one that made the most sense did not pan out. My analysis pointed to either the core 3 TA members (Rudy, Rich & Susan) sticking together until the end or the more likely penis alliance. The PA made more sense if you put yourself into Rich's shoes...

Now before I started my spoiler fact list post the general concensus of this message board was Kelly. I believed that I helped to change that over to Sue. For that I am slightly sorry. Everything I derived made sense. I guessed that Kelly must have won the immunity, which she did... I guessed that the rice serving pics were from EP12, which they were. So instead of just looking at some pictures and GUESSING that Sean won, I went with logic. I'll admit, it burned me!!!

Rich is an idiot. Maybe he doesn't see it as we do watching from the outside in, but his only real shot at the Million was against the guy he just ousted.

The Penis Alliance guaranteed Rich being in the final 2. He could have gotten rid of Sue last night and then Kelly first thing in EP13 (barring immunity). This would leave the boys. At that point whoever won the final immunity would want to be up against Rich or if Rich won then he would pick Sean as his best shot. Now he has to deal with a possible female alliance, Kelly winning immunity which would cause him to be screwed and also being in a final 4 with 2 people he has no chance of beating. Imagine if Kelly wins the next two immunities. Rudy or Rich would be gone first and then the other guy would be gone next leaving the girls to which Kelly wins hands down. Stupid, stupid, stupid. What the hell was Rich thinking, maybe he wasn't. The thing that pisses me off the most is that we analyzed better than SS yet they, by using pictures from last nights show, got lucky and picked correctly.

Now we must start over and what do we have to go on? Kelly seems like the logical choice to get booted first but what if she wins immunity or aligns with Sue? Is there a tie next week? And since they gave us all of nothing promo wise last night, I don't know where to start. Anyway, I still feel we analyzed correctly but Rich was just plain stupid. Anyone agree?

CJ

• RE: Rich is an idiot,dfox, 11:21 AM, 08-17-00
  • RE: Rich is an idiot,hellcat, 11:29 AM, 08-17-00
    • RE: Rich is an idiot,zeako, 11:37 AM, 08-17-00
• RE: Rich is an idiot,champagne_supernova, 11:32 AM, 08-17-00
• RE: Rich is NOT an idiot,DivaRachel, 11:51 AM, 08-17-00
• RE: Rich is an idiot,Conspiracy Jim, 03:30 PM, 08-17-00
  • Monday Morning Quarter backs aside.,BadAs, 03:47 PM, 08-17-00
  • RE: Rich is an idiot,champagne_supernova, 04:00 PM, 08-17-00
    • RE: Rich is an idiot,Hunydou, 05:29 PM, 08-17-00
      • RE: Rich is an idiot,zeako, 08:10 PM, 08-17-00
    • Richard the leader,flying squirrel, 08:10 PM, 08-17-00
      • RE: Richard the leader,zeako, 08:23 PM, 08-17-00
        • RE: Richard the leader,Irisheyes, 10:03 PM, 08-17-00

Yeah! 150% or should I say

"I dunno"

I disagree. At this point in the show, they realize there are 'real world' consequences to betraying the people you aligned yourself with throughout the show.

Rich's 'redemption' is likely that he does *not* betray the other two core alliance members (Kelly removed herself from that core) - there's nothing stupid in that at all.

All three will be in the 'real' money, all three may win the million, all three have a shot at making $$$ from personal appearances after the show... to show yourself as a traitorous backstabber at this point severely cuts into that earning power.

Unless she wins immunity, Kelly goes next. This is going to be soooo much fun to watch.

During last night's show Rich disucussed giving Rudy the boot after Kelly won immunity. He also mocked Rudy and his threat to get even with anyone who backstabbed him. I think Richard wants to get into the final 2 with Sue and she wants the same thing. They seem to agree that Kelly and Rudy are more popular than they are.

As for Richard being stupid. As Rudy would say, I dunno. But he certainly isn't the mastermind many make him out to be. Forming the alliance (started by Sue) and picking off the Pagongers was easy. It didn't require any great masterplan.

LAST EDITED ON 08-17-00 AT 11:35 AM (EST)

I think that Rich was actually being very smart. I think he has an alliance with Rudy, but a stronger one with Sue. He knows that in a Rich/Sue final vote, he could beat her with no problem. I don't think that he could beat Sean, Rudy, or Kelly in a final two. Since he couldn't eliminate Kelly (who has the best chances of beating him in a final two), he went for Sean (who had the next best chance of beating him in a final two). I think there's even a remote possibility for Rich to win against Rudy in a final two. All he has to do is make it there!

>The Penis Alliance guaranteed Rich being
>in the final 2.

why would Rich and Rudy want to ditch Sue, who has been very loyal, for unpredictable backstabbing Sean? Sean is playing like he had nothing to do w/ TA to the jury, thus making the rest of the Penis Alliance look bad. It would be dumb to ditch Sue now.

>He could have gotten rid
>of Sue last night and

why? People hate Sue almost as much as they hate the rest of TA. It it was b/w Rudy and Sue, who knows who would win? That's alot better than being against Sean or Kelly.

> Imagine if Kelly wins
>the next two immunities.

uh. let's not go there. I think I'm gonna puke.

> Kelly seems
>like the logical choice to

yes. I really hope she doesn't win IC again. That would suck and it would force the TA to turn against eachother. But I don't think I'd call it "backstabbing" because they have no choice. Now who would Rich align with, should this happen? He gave his word to both Sue and Rudy...

>is there a tie next week?

who knows. I don't trust anything MB says.

_________________
Go Rich&Rudy, Go!

My statement that Rich is an idiot means that he had a better chance at winning the million against Sean than against anyone else. From reading the attached posts it sounds as though you guys think that Sean is liked by the Pagongers. Are you watching the same show as I am? If it had come down to Sean and Rich (and with the Penis Alliance route this was a likelyhood), the voting would have been like this.

Rudy - for Rich to win
Sue - would be a toss up at this point because she would have been backstabbed.
Kelly - hates Sean more than anyone else so she goes for Rich.
Colleen - toss up.
Gervase - toss up
Jenna - she would rather Rich then Sean
Greg - toss up

That means Rich would already have 3 votes and would only need to sway one other and with how manipulative he is he could have talked about how wishy washy Sean is and how he's a Doctor and so on. Rich would win.

Now he can't win against Rudy or Kelly so he better hope he's against Sue and likely she wins as she would likely get the winning votes from...

Kelly
Colleen
Gervase
Greg

We need to start looking at the minimal hard evidence that we have for next show. I'll start delving into it in the morn.

CJ

Yeah CJ, i am with ya all the way. Rich had the game won! rudy in his back pocket, manipulate sean on more time, boot sue then kelly. He would have a good chance against a Doctor and an OLD man in the eyes of the jury.

OH well
BA
"I don't Know"]

Guess we can drop it now and focus, since logic didn't work this time for me or you!!

I totally disagree. I think Rich knows that his best chances are against Sue in the final two. Pagongs don't like Sean, but they hate Susan (Gervase, Jenna, Colleen's interview). He'd rather put himself against someone they absolutely loathed than someone they thought was kinda dopey but ultimately harmless.

I don't think Rich is an idiot for the most part. His astute handling of those around him has worked well enough to keep him in the Final Four. We're only seeing a small amount of the time that gang spent on the island -- from our perspective, maintaining and building an alliance looks easy, but it's actually a time-consuming process that requires some measure of emotional delicacy to ensure members don't defect to the other side. Considering all the volatile personalities on that island, it's amazing that he's gotten as far as he has. His one big mistake was the naked bit that he did on his birthday (for the first time, he put his personal life ahead of the game and it almost got him voted off.) Of course, the show makes it all so obvious and simple that the alliance has a plan to make it to the final four by offing everyone else that we can't believe the Pagong were so stupid -- but when you're in the middle of that kind of a situation, it's very hard to keep your head clear.

I have a feeling that Survivor Two is going to show how difficult it is to keep an alliance going -- people breaking away and backstabbing at every opportunity. Then you'll see what a genius Rich has been (in a rather devious and arrogant way, of course.)

By the same token, you could say Sue or Rudy were masterful in ensuring that Rich didn't defect.

Survivor II will show us how easy the Tagi 4 had it in disposing of the Pagongers. Put the same four in the final round of SII and they would likely not all make it to the final four.

Once again, they left themselves vulnerable in E7. They had a voting pact of only 4. An organized Pagaong team could have voted one of them off 5-4. They were lucky. Rich is no mastermind, except in his own mind.

I totally agree with the previous two posts. Dicque would definitely want to be against Sue in the final. Gervase, Colleen, Jenna, Sean and Rudy vote for Richard; Kelly votes for Susan; Greg votes for BB.

I also agree that Dicque is not getting enough respect for his role as a leader. I actually went along with AK last week and thought that Dicque might get voted off by Susan because he was such a threat to win. But instead, we found out that Susan trusts him more than Kelly.

Has anyone ever played through the "prisoners' dilemma"? The idea is this: two prisoners are offered the opportunity to squeal on each other. If neither squeals (in other words, if they cooperate), they both may get light sentences. If one squeals and the other doesn't, the squealer may go free, while the other gets a long sentence. But, if both squeal, they both get long sentences.

When you see studies, you find that, although the best statistical outcome is to cooperate, the incentive of going free is generally enough to make prisoners squeal when they think they can gain from it. Similarly, the incentive of winning the game would be enough to make most people defect in the right circumstances. But the Tagi are still together. Why? Because they trust Dicque more than each other. That makes Dicque a leader, and a very good one, too!

Rich thinks he is a great leader. Let's look at some of his great leader quotes.(paraphrased)

E1 "Now Sean what do you think the whole point of what I'm saying here is?" sounded like a grade 6 teacher

E3 After Sean criticizes his plan to put floats in the water for the stranded challenge (clapping)"Yea, thank you mister negativity." sounded like a dicque

E12 "I think the idea of Rattana Tribe is stupid as was Pagong or Tagi. There never were any tribes." sounded like a selfish dicque

E12 "I really don't care for any of the people on this island." sounded like a nasty dicque

I agree that Rich has the best chance going up against Sue. But Kelly? I think he would definately beat Kelly. Remember what Colleen said? They saw through her. They knew what she was doing, that she was trying to get Pagong info and bringing it back to TA. Why vote for her?

Plus, Jenna, Gervase, and Colleen both said that Rich was a nice guy. Nice enough to hand a million too, who knows?

Rich has the best chance against Sue, folloowed by Kelly. Up against Rudy, Rudy wins.