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Thread Number: 3033
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Original Message
"Vote For The Worst pick tracker."
Posted by Estee on 03-02-11 at 01:12 AM
For keeping an eye on who the Worsters back, how well it's working (or isn't), and factoring in their overall voting influence on the competition.

Right now, with the opening round format -- 24 (sort of) sing, 10 get voted through, and 2 move on as wild cards -- their votes could have some real impact. This is the stage where ballots tend to majorly scatter: a few extra percentage points here and someone who wouldn't have had an encore night gets to send their clothes to the laundry. If they want to say they have power, tonight was their first chance of the season to prove it.

However, they went with Brett.

Yes, he was bad. He was majorly bad. He was two notes from being horrible, which would have been two notes more than he actually hit. But I think the show is so desperate to have him advance that if he didn't get voted through, they'd choose him as a wild card -- and I'm pretty sure he's going to be voted through. So for now, the Worsters may just blend into the pack. (I personally would have taken Jordan based on the sheer stupidity of his song choice. And the shoulder pops.) It does give the caricature artist a lot (of hair) to work with.

We'll see who they take from the females tomorrow. But right now, the real battle of the season may be to see who can land in the absolute bottom...

Remember: with the immediate cutdown in place, they'll have to go to a single pick next week.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: Vote For The Worst pick tracker."
Posted by Snidget on 03-02-11 at 07:45 AM
The guys side certainly does seem to be an embarrassment of riches for the Worsters this year. The guy who wants the votes will have to do something to stand out in the entertainingly bad kind of way.
"RE: Vote For The Worst pick tracker."
Posted by mindy23 on 03-02-11 at 09:42 AM
Brett hit me as Carrot Top trying to do a very bad Morrison imitation, for comedic value only. And it wasn't so funny, either.
Jordon, embarrasing on all counts. It's going to be a tough one to call, for the Worsters as well as the judges. They had a lot riding on both these guys, and may feel they will be semi-crucified (whatever that amounts to) if they chop either one.

But most sane, un-deaf people would have to admit, those two were just B. A. D.!!

"RE: Vote For The Worst pick tracker."
Posted by emydi on 03-02-11 at 11:00 AM
ftr 3 go through on WCs

My first note on Brett was VFTW! I knew he'd get the nod, but Jordan would have been a good pick too. VFTW really has a great cast to work with no matter who goes through

"For the women:"
Posted by Estee on 03-03-11 at 01:00 AM
Rachel.

Keep in mind that VFTW also bases their choice in what they feel will be entertainment value. Rachel wasn't the worst performer on the XX side of the divide: personally, I'd make a major argument for Julie. But the panel's commentary made me feel Rachel was the designated victim of the evening -- not to mention having that state determined before she ever started -- and that frustrates me.

I voted for her. I just don't know if it'll do any good.

"RE: For the women:"
Posted by emydi on 03-03-11 at 11:18 AM
I love Rachel and not just for the cape etc. She can really sing

I don't want her to leave either...everytime I see her I feel a strong connection to my sister in a good way so I want to see her move on

"Caricatures are up."
Posted by Estee on 03-03-11 at 10:23 AM
Dual performance, one-week only.
"RE: Caricatures are up."
Posted by mindy23 on 03-03-11 at 10:41 AM
I don't think there is any way in HECK that Rachael will move on to the finals, but if she did, she'd certainly be in the VFTW running with the male worster.

Julie may make it to the finals on looks alone, and maybe on previous perfomances. But it's going to be a tough call based on the good performances last night. I counted six that I would definately vote through, and had a tough time eliminating one, and bringing back a WC to boot.

The girls, IMHO, did a much better job, and with the exception of Racheal, didn't make utter fools out of themselves with jerking and jumping around, the way their male counterparts did.

Oh well. We'll see....

"RE: Caricatures are up."
Posted by emydi on 03-03-11 at 11:19 AM
we'll see what happens next week with wc round...but usually they focus only on one person per night...we'll have to see what Nigel will do for voting no way he doesnt have america vote
"Initial results."
Posted by Estee on 03-03-11 at 11:43 PM
Oh-for-two. The screams of 'Robbed!' on their own update thread got repetitive in a hurry. And they were being mocked by the producers -- note the placement of Brett and Rachel's rejections within the pack. End of the hour drama and last female out. Back to the salt mines so they can carve away that extra layer deposited from the tears.

If it's any comfort, I'm starting to doubt anyone's bothering to count the votes.

"Poll for the worst."
Posted by Estee on 03-05-11 at 06:53 PM
While VFTW makes their selection during the performance show, they are asking for a little pre-airtime input from their visitors about who the site should back next. This is a snapshot of the current in-progress vote tally.

Selection Votes
Ashthon Jones 17% 813
Casey Abrams 6% 299
Haley Reinhart 14% 669
Jacob Lusk 7% 344
James Durbin 8% 366
Karen Rodriguez 3% 163
Lauren Alaina 1% 59
Naima Adedapo 13% 653
Paul McDonald 7% 358
Pia Toscano 1% 49
Scotty McCreery 16% 790
Stefano Langone 3% 165
Thia Megia 3% 126

4,854 votes total

(If you want to vote, the link is on their front page.)

The poll numbers can be skewed fairly easily (and fans of a singer will sometimes try for VFTW's block as an 'every call counts' strategy), but the top four are telling. Ashton as what people feel was a quota wild card, Haley as the arguable weakest of the voted-through females, Naima for not being mainstream, and Scotty as the genre-locked.

For the record, I voted for Haley. I'm not a Worster, but I don't always have an inherent objection to their tactics -- especially not in this Year Of The Blatant Script.


"RE: Poll for the worst."
Posted by cahaya on 03-06-11 at 12:44 PM
I voted last Friday and made the same vote you did for the same reasons.

The only second thought I had was to vote for Naima. Combining the underwhelming America votes and VFTW votes might keep her in the competition, which I think she deserves. I'd rather see her make it to the top half dozen than I would Haley.

"Sportsbook odds"
Posted by cahaya on 03-06-11 at 12:59 PM
Current Odds to Win American Idol Season 10 according to Sportsbook:

Lauren Alaina 9/2
Pia Toscano 5/1
Casey Abrams 11/2
Paul McDonald 7/1
Jacob Lusk 8/1
Thia Megia 8/1
James Durbin 9/1
Scott McCreery 9/1
Karen Rodriguez 15/1
Stefano Langone 15/1
Naima Adedapo 25/1
Haley Reinhart 30/1
Ashthon Jones 30/1

How's this for a side bet?

Will Casey Abrams and Randy Jackson both appear on stage together playing the bass at any point during the season?
Yes -200
No +150

"RE: Sportsbook odds"
Posted by zazzy on 03-06-11 at 08:21 PM
Looks like a PTTE list! I'm so not into this season I may have to adopt as my entry.

What is the blatant script this season anyway? Is it time for a girl to win or forget that, just bring in the ratings?

"Sportsbook update 4/1"
Posted by cahaya on 04-01-11 at 11:12 AM
It's now heavily in favor of Pia, followed by James and Scotty tied for a distant 2nd/3rd. Lauran is 4th in another gap, with Jacob and Casey tied close behind at 5th/6th. Haley is the darkhorse at 7th and Paul and Stefano are looking at being the next two to stand on stage to be told which one is out next.

Casey Abrams 10/1

Haley Reinhart 16/1

Jacob Lusk 10/1

James Durbin 7/2

Lauren Alaina 9/2

Paul McDonald 25/1

Pia Toscano 2/1

Scott McCreery 7/2

Stefano Langone 25/1

"They flipped a coin."
Posted by Estee on 03-10-11 at 00:49 AM
And it landed on the Coin-Operated Boy himself, who couldn't properly applaud the moment until someone stuck a key in his back and gave it a few strategic twists. (The other side was Nadia, so the coin is heavily into clockwork this week.) The site head says that for once, this pick is not locked until vote-out -- it's a one-week engagement with a chance for more, but Paul can be dethroned if only someone outweirds him.

Let it be a challenge to them.

"Caricature up."
Posted by Estee on 03-14-11 at 06:17 PM
Needs more chrome.
"RE: Caricature up."
Posted by Snidget on 03-14-11 at 06:36 PM
Not quite blinding enough for you?

"RE: Caricature up."
Posted by Estee on 03-14-11 at 06:44 PM
He still looks vaguely organic. That can't be right.
"Too close."
Posted by Estee on 04-01-11 at 07:23 AM
They're celebrating today -- they feel they saved Paul through their efforts and I think they have a serious case -- but they're nervous. For Paul to freefall into B3 wasn't in the plans. Their site owner saw it coming (at least as a major possibility) and encouraged everyone to put in overtime. But I think the majority felt this week and possibly even the next few were in the bag: it looks like they were (justifiably) writing off Stefano. For him to be free and clear... well, if the votes are fair, it might make you wonder just how packed the percentages are towards the bottom of the field. Were we looking at 1.2, 1.3, and 1.5 last night? How much of the total does #1 have?

I think they do get next week: Haley almost has to go now and I'm not sure what's keeping Stefano afloat either. But the clock just started ticking.

"The hate mail flows."
Posted by Estee on 04-08-11 at 08:31 AM
You pretty much had to expect some after Pia left, and most of it is telling the Worsters how stupid they are, they didn't eliminate Pia, they have no influence whatsoever in the show, etc, etc, and frequently bleepable etc. The haters repeat themselves and each other. A lot.

The Worsters did not eliminate Pia. They can't vote against people. They didn't force her through the airplane door to freefall into B3 and out. All they can do is boost someone else's total: getting the least votes is in the hands of everyone who screams about a given person going out and did nothing to stop it. VFTW has no control over the B3 beyond trying to keep one person out of it. Pia's plummet cannot be blamed on them, nor should they be trying to take that much credit for it.

But I wind up thinking this every season: to say they have no influence is to be a willful idiot. Power voters can rack up a lot of ballots on this no-limit show, and the Worsters are experienced. If you gave them credit for no more than two thousand active members posting an average of five hundred votes each, then guess what? That's a million extra votes going to their chosen one. Take a week where Ryan throws 'Fifty million votes!' out as his we're-so-popular number and the Worsters accounted for two percent of the total. Claiming an extra two percent here and there does nothing is pure stupidity. Haters gotta hate, but they don't wanna think.

Fifty million votes, Ryan claims, and neglects to mention that the number can be generated by much less than a million people. Two thousand dedicated power voters using all the tricks can do a lot. This week, Paul was safe. And next week...

...well, we've still got two females left. For now.

"RE: The hate mail flows."
Posted by Snidget on 04-08-11 at 09:24 AM
*nods*

It doesn't take that many power voters to at least keep someone out of last place.

What they can't control is who didn't get the votes this week, and who the voted off person's voters move to can sometimes be enough to drop someone below the line.

Add to that most seasons have at least one "oh that one has to be safe and I want to make sure this other person doesn't go home" week. It may be a little early this season as there isn't as much obvious fodder what with the judges loving everyone and saying everyone could win.

If most people are running pretty even in the voting it doesn't take much for any one of them to drop into the bottom slot, and Pia didn't have much other than she's cute and she Divas it up and that hasn't usually been the big draw in most seasons. Even if you fit one of the standard archetypes there really needs to be something that sets you apart from all the other people just like you to get the votes.

"New pick: Casey."
Posted by Estee on 04-21-11 at 07:28 AM
It's a combination of his overall body of work, the White Guy With Whatever That Is He Just Dragged Onto The Stage factor, the fact that he's already walking dead, and a deep-seated hope that if they just keep him around long enough, we'll get a live incontinence episode that doesn't involve Steven's mouth.

Naturally, the first reactions gathered (including from a few of their own) say they just sold out by taking someone based on how far they were already set to go. After all, if they grab someone who's been given T4 by the script, all this does is let them declare VFTW Victory a few times while blending in to the voter support which already exists. And you could make that argument except for two things: Casey has the highest potential (and range) for weird moments and technically, he already went home. If you had to be saved, then at some point, the bulk of the voters had you in a virtual B3. No resurrectee has ever won the show -- and that's a challenge.

Casey's fanbase won't take this well. Assuming anyone can find them.

"Prechosen."
Posted by Estee on 04-29-11 at 07:08 AM
After getting an unusual dose of comedy out of the way this past week through visitors saying 'You only picked Casey because you knew he'd win, you cowards' and the Worsters replying that Casey was in trouble and needed their support -- guess what? Casey was in trouble and needed their support, plus that of a hundred thousand other people. So long to Casey. And while the site generally waits for performance night to make their next choice, there was really only one place to go, and you get there by following the gleam of the bowtie.

That's night: the next Worster choice is the lovely lusty Lady Lusk. Now there's someone who isn't going to take it well. Between this and the Gaga in-show premiere of Judas, I'm sure some very severe prayers are going to be sent in the general direction of the lightning department. And the response-to-date of the site's detractors? Telling them they should be voting for Lauren. Subtle.

Waiting on the caricature.

"RE: Prechosen."
Posted by Snidget on 04-29-11 at 07:46 AM
Performance night vs ahead of time usually depends on when in the season it is, and how many people seem to be playing the entertainingly bad role.

The first couple of picks usually have to be done on the fly as no one has seen what they do live, and what the edited parts have shown often isn't the best indication of what happens in live performances. The last pick typically would have been ahead of time but there was an abundance of people to select from so I think they went with lets see who wants it.

A couple of times a pre-selected pick has been changed on performance night, but that takes a lot of effort both on the part of the pick (being a good little idol contestant with a good but boring performance) and the new choice (really need a WTF was that aspect to their performance).

"Caricature"
Posted by Snidget on 05-03-11 at 08:33 PM


I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure.

"They didn't expect to win this one."
Posted by Estee on 05-06-11 at 07:40 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-13-11 AT 04:06 PM (EST)

And they didn't. Jacob's gone, and the polls are open once again. However, with the 'entertainingly bad' factor mostly out of the race, the Worsters are now asking who their site visitors find to be the most annoying. It took me less than a second to vote for Lauren -- but I'm in the current minority: Scotty & James were running neck and neck, just two votes apart.

Personally, I think the major voting mystery (as always, assuming votes are actually counted) is what happened to Lauren's fanbase last night. Haley safe was a decent probability: Haley vaulting over her was a lot lower. The producers want to scare up another rally, they have to want a Top 3 of Lauren, Scotty, and James -- but the first spot in that just became a little less certain.

"RE: They didn't expect to win this one."
Posted by cahaya on 05-06-11 at 09:39 AM
Yup, I went and voted for Lauren at the VFTW site last night. Both she and my vote are no-brainers.
"This may sting a bit."
Posted by Estee on 05-06-11 at 08:20 AM
http://americanidolanalytics.com/2011/05/05/vote-for-the-worst-picks-are-usually-poor/
"Indecision"
Posted by cahaya on 05-06-11 at 11:35 PM
Who is the most annoying member of the top 4?
Selection Votes

Scotty McCreery 30% 2,032
Haley Reinhart 21% 1,457
James Durbin 29% 1,982
Lauren Alaina 20% 1,377

6,848 votes total
pollcode.com free polls

It's take your pick, with all between 20% and 30% of the vote. James and Scotty are already heavy favorites, so it looks like an end-season play for most of the VFTW folks.

"Haley puts a crick in The Agenda."
Posted by Estee on 05-13-11 at 07:17 AM
The producers felt that one.

For a while now, I've felt The Powers That Shouldn't Be wanted a country/rock finale. James vs. Scotty was the ideal, James vs. Lauren was an unlikely backup, and Haley breaking though to the top three wasn't going to happen if they had to put away the usual bus, hand her a cape, and toss her into a jet engine.

But then Wednesday happened. Randy strapped on the cape, went in for the toss -- and took a knee to the genitals. (Or as the Worster front page has it, was strangled by a chain.) It's kind of hard to put a negative spin on a standing ovation without looking like an idiot, and he didn't come within ten percent of managing it. In fact, all he did was get the Worsters behind Haley -- along with potentially triggering a good old-fashioned Simon Backlash, patent extremely established.

There's some extra influence here, of course. People are already questioning the sellout timing on the Star story, with some calling it a potential attempt by The Agenda to undercut James. Unlike Big Brother, some shows don't rank the success of their seasons by the number of people who might wind up in jail. For James, I'll call it a childhood incident narrated by the world's most dubious source and let him pass until a real witness emerges -- but you can see how the producers might have freaked. Sacrifice their ultimate F2 in order to save the long-term headlines? Possible -- which means Randy's backlash-trigger could have been vaguely deliberate.

But the long-term result is the same: James is derailed, Haley moves on, and we should give the Worsters a little credit for the result. (Gawds know the early-arriving newbies are handing them virtually all of the blame.) And now -- well, as said on the ECST last night, I feel Haley's best move is to go solid rocker for the next show, let Lauren and Scotty split the country votes, and surf the divide into F2. (She has a slim chance to beat Lauren from there. I don't think anyone can take out Scotty.) And to paraphrase their celebration thread, it would save us from Two Hours Of Jesus, which is the sort of saving you just can't get in church.

Next week is going to be interesting.

The Write Protests For James threads are just going to be annoying.

"RE: Haley puts a crick in The Agenda."
Posted by zazzy on 05-13-11 at 03:40 PM
I'm really offended by the James story. He was a teenager, a kid who had already lost his dad and had such emotional issues he develops Tourette's. Then there is the Aspberger stuff, too.

I'm guessing that he would have gotten some counseling after the knife incident. A lot of emotion that needed to come out but he did not have the emotional maturity tools to do it, so he went for the demonstrative way to display the hurt inside. He seems like he has matured; being married probably helps with that, too.

Shady timing of the story. Wonder if someone had that up their sleeve all season long, just waiting to use it.

"RE: Haley puts a crick in The Agenda."
Posted by Estee on 05-13-11 at 04:00 PM
LAST EDITED ON 05-13-11 AT 04:01 PM (EST)

The stepfather may have sold the story early, with Star hoping on James to go far so he'd actually have some minor celebrity status when they hit him with it: this wouldn't have been a cover article at Top 13. He also could have held out himself hoping to get an increased fee later in the season -- but such types aren't always the patient ones.

Or if you want to go conspiracy, all you have to do is decide who's in charge of the Send and Print buttons...

"RE: Haley puts a crick in The Agenda."
Posted by zazzy on 05-13-11 at 06:15 PM
I only saw the cover nd the blurb at VFTW. This came from his stepfather? That's even worse. And sad. So, so sad.
"RE: Haley puts a crick in The Agenda."
Posted by Snidget on 05-13-11 at 06:23 PM
I think I saw ex-stepfather, not that it makes it any better, but maybe that means the guy is out of James' life and family.
"RE: Haley puts a crick in The Agenda."
Posted by cahaya on 05-14-11 at 00:57 AM
Some folks succumb to monetary greed and a moment of rag infamy.

James isn't one of them. It's clear to me, anyway, that he just loves to sing.

"RE: Haley puts a crick in The Agenda."
Posted by cahaya on 05-14-11 at 01:05 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-14-11 AT 01:08 AM (EST)

The producers felt that one.

Even the established online bookies felt that one. *Rake, rake.*

Agree with your call in general. Haley has an outside edge to take it. It's going to come down to the narrow line in the vote splits.

Or the rapture. Which, if I'm not mistaken, is in seven days.

"RE: Haley puts a crick in The Agenda."
Posted by zazzy on 05-20-11 at 09:13 AM
Hmmm. This story seems to have died out with James' boot.

It reeks of agenda; the timing right before James was to sing at top 4...and then his getting booted.

AI got its two country kids finale. Hmmmm.

"For the finale: Scotty."
Posted by Estee on 05-20-11 at 07:22 AM
Their poll ran neck and neck -- Lauren and Scotty were less than a hundred votes apart every time I looked -- but this makes up a good part of their rationale. (Warning: as always, the Worster commentary under the article goes past PG-13.)

http://tinyurl.com/6g6em6w

Uh-oh.

I know that's a small sample size, but still -- uh-oh. And you have to worry when some of them are considering sitting this one out...

For the rest of their reasoning, see their front page. And prepare for the caricature (when it appears). This one will not be kind.

"RE: For the finale: Scotty."
Posted by zazzy on 05-20-11 at 09:15 AM
Do you really believe VFTW has any impact?
"RE: For the finale: Scotty."
Posted by Estee on 05-20-11 at 09:48 AM
Without going into a long-form explanation which will only bring the Trumps out of the woodwork: I think they make up between 1.5-2% of the vote, and there are days when that is enough to save someone. But I also feel that Scotty's so far ahead, the extra numbers will just blend into his landslide -- and I'm honestly not sure anyone's counting votes this season anyway.
"This is not a caricature."
Posted by Estee on 05-20-11 at 11:49 AM

Regardless of how you feel about him as a singer, I hope you're willing to admit he needs a little help with facial control.

"RE: This is not a caricature."
Posted by vince3 on 05-20-11 at 01:28 PM
just a tad... and mike handling lessons, too...
"How many votes did Haley get?"
Posted by Estee on 05-21-11 at 04:25 PM
According to Nigel (through Twitter), she got something over 25,000,000.

Of course, Nigel lies a lot.

This is actually a first: someone is bothering to fabricate a contestant's rough total. No idea how the other supposed 70m split between Scotty and Lauren (other than Scotty having more of it) -- but Haley getting 25 million? Huh. If we take that even remotely seriously...

...which is the part I'm having trouble with.

"All caricatures now available for purchase."
Posted by Estee on 05-23-11 at 09:16 AM
This list has every portrait done for the season -- plus one mystery contestant whom the artist thought would be used and prepared for, but never got to post. (The Worsters are guessing Naima.)

http://shop.ebay.com/votefortheworst/m.html?_trksid=p4340.l2562

Rachel has the early bid lead. Jacob has not an opener to his name.

"In their own view:"
Posted by Estee on 05-26-11 at 07:48 AM

...y'know, that explains a lot of the voting.

"RE: In their own view:"
Posted by CTgirl on 05-26-11 at 08:47 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-26-11 AT 08:51 AM (EST)

It's Howdy Doody Time!

"RE: In their own view:"
Posted by byoffer on 05-26-11 at 02:45 PM
Speaking of mad voting...



"RE: In their own view:"
Posted by CTgirl on 05-26-11 at 03:02 PM
After I posted that he reminds me of Howdy Doody, I thought, he looks like Alfred E. Neuman too!
"RE: In their own view:"
Posted by Estee on 05-26-11 at 03:39 PM
Just don't post either of those deductions at VFTW -- they got sick of hearing it about three hours after his audition.
"RE: In their own view:"
Posted by CTgirl on 05-26-11 at 04:32 PM
I don't go to VFTW - and I really didn't see the similiarities until you posted that picture. His ears stick out way more in print than on TV!
"Closing bids."
Posted by Estee on 05-30-11 at 09:10 PM
There's probably some interesting information hidden in these results. Feel free to go looking for it.

Mystery Caricature: $140.49
Brett Loewenstern: $70.00
Scotty McCreery: $88.00
Casey Abrams: $89.99
Rachel Zevita: $75.99
Paul McDonald: $98.89
Haley Reinhart: $252.49
Jacob Lusk: $60.99

"RE: Closing bids."
Posted by zazzy on 06-01-11 at 07:42 PM
So who was the mystery person? I'll guess Pia.

>
>

"RE: Closing bids."
Posted by Snidget on 06-04-11 at 01:27 PM
Durbin, the person who won it posted it on the thread about the auction over there.