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Original Message
"State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by SurvivaBear on 09-16-02 at 06:00 PM

Episode One

Well, it is that time again. I am so excited about getting to write the first SOTS of the season. I consider it an honor and, despite having most of the work done for me, a challenge. All of you, my dear spoiler friends, have been very busy and I hope you will find this helpful to bring everything together. Naturally, EPMB has not given us much to go on. However, If you do not feel like reading this entire post, idiotcowboy basically created a mini-SOTS in his excellent analysis- What we have for E1.

First and foremost, please review the spoiler board guidelines. If you are relatively new to this board and have not read them, please do so immediately. Sometimes newbies feel intimidated or feel that other posters are not kind to them, but we do have simple guidelines that help us all get along. Don't be intimidated, just well read.

Let's Meet the New Crew
To begin, we have a thread that helps us meet (spoil) each contestant-
Contestant #1 -- Jake Billingsly-
a tough old bird and a triathelete. Most feel he will be a serious contender.
Contestant #2 -- Erin Collins-
a young bar wench with attitude. She has already drawn comparisons with both Kathy and Sarah from the last Survivor.
Contestant #3 -- Stephanie Dill-
an Arkansan firefighter. She brought "fuzzy slippers"? SFever posted some risque pictures of her.
Contestant #4 -- Jan Gentry-
a 53 year old marathon runner. A good debate has begun regarding whether or not she will go early.
Contestant #5 -- Helen Glover-
a Navy swim instructor. She is from Dique's hometown.
Contestant #6 -- Brian Heidik-
a used car salesman and a washed up soft porn star. Can we say "sleazy"?
Contestant #7 -- Jed Hildebrand-
a senior at Baylor College of Dentistry. He was a surfing instructor in Hawaii.
Contestant #8 -- Shi Ann Huang-
a wild, rebellious and vibrant "she-devil". She is tough, but with a sense of humor, and she knows how to tell a good story.
Contestant #9 -- Ghandia Johnson-
an athletic mother of two, who may not have gotten along with her tribe.
Warning! Possible Red Herring! However, there was a poster on SS claiming to be Ghandia going by the moniker GDiva.
Contestant #10 -- Clay Jordan-
a middle-aged weenie who brought a golf club with him. Although, some evidence suggest that he might stay in the game for a while.
Contestant #11 -- Penny Ramsey-
a pretty, snotty, little rich girl. Look out when things stop going her way.
Contestant #12 -- John Raymond-
Pastor John brought a Christian Flag as his luxury item. Does his lack of a second shirt forebode an early exit?
Contestant #13 -- Ted Rogers Jr.-
a software design manager and motorcycle club member. He once played in the NFL preseason.
Contestant #14 -- Ken Stafford-
a New York City Police Officer with the 79th Precinct. He is sure to have the 9/11 hero thing going for him.
Contestant #15 -- Tanya Vance-
a social worker who appears to be quite sweet. Some info points to her leaving around the merge (if there is one).
Contestant #16 -- Robb Zbacnik-
a spoiled rich kid, his luxury item is a skateboard. Can we say "worthless"?

A Canadian-only promo had nicknames for many of the survivors, including:
The She-Devil - Shii Ann
The Diva - Ghandia
The Flirt - Stephanie
The Schemer - Jed

We had considerable discussion surrounding the teams and buff colors. Fester effectively debunked the All Male/All Female tribes myth for most of us. (Although GTMike has a dissenting opinion.) The consensus is we have the Suk Jai or "purple buff tribe" on Ao Jak beach. This team may consist of Ken, Jake, Jed, Robb, Stephanie, Erin, Penny, and Shii Ann. That leaves Jan, Helen, Ghandia, Tanya, Brian, Clay, John, and Ted on the Chuay Gan or "red buff tribe" at the Ao Rusi camp.

The Title
We have speculation surrounding the TV Guide title: The Importance of Being E...est. Most of the discussion centered on the cryptic use of the ellipsis. Tribephyl (going on the theory that the final word was Earnest) noted that a, r, and n are missing. Since none of the contestants are nurses and none have the initials ARN he wondered if the letters might signify Erin. When you look at Erin's profile, you might get the impression that she may be the focus of an early episode. Forehead asked if it could be ARkansas Native=Stephanie. Rain Crow suggested other words that may fit, but Fester came up with the best one for EPMB- Evilest. Still others felt that Earliest and Easiest would fit and perhaps the title has a double meaning. Rosewood felt the title might imply East, as the camp on the eastern side of the island seemed to be nicer. OFG mused that it may be a nod to the old EBT.

We also had a good deal of discussion about next week's title (apparently another literary reference) The Great Divide. Does this mean they wait until E2 before dividing up teams?

Immunity Challenge
SB may have spotted our first look at the "Immunity Necklace".

However, we have very little speculation about the IC to this point.

So far, the promos have not revealed much. However, we do have several great vidcaps, thanks to Webby and Bungler.
Mini "Big Surprise" (featuring Robb & Shii) Commericial Vidcaps
"Think Again" Commercial Vidcaps
"Big Surprise" (spotlighting Tanya, Penny & Brian) Commercial Vidcaps
"What Is The Twist" Commerical Vidcaps
"Combo Promo" Commercial Vidcaps
"What Is The Big Surprise" Commerical Vidcaps (new footage)
MTV Vidcaps
I do not think the official OFG preview has aired yet. Can we still use the OFG theory?

Other Spoilers

A facial hair analysis indicates that Brian, Ken, and Clay stay in the game for at least a few weeks, whereas John or Jed may get booted sooner rather than later. Ted also sports some facial hair, but his luxury item was a razor and shaving cream (we can only assume for shaving his head).

Weight loss spoilers indicate that Jan, Helen, Ted, and Erin may stay in the game for a while.

We have some information that Tanya may make it farther in the game. Jake, Steph, Jed, Shi Ann and Ghandia seem to be very strong competitors, for what that is worth. Penny will probably stay around for a few weeks as eye candy. That leaves Robb and John. Robb may get the boot because he brought a skateboard and because he has that useless second b in his name (sorry, Basher's flashback). John is only pictured with one shirt or shirtless. He is either the first to go or packed very light.

As a side note, we have a lot of hype indicating that this will be an exciting season. Jiffy says this season will be filled with Betrayal! Deception! We also have an article that indicates the challenges will be "different". The article indicates that sometimes the immunity challenge may come before the reward challenge or they may both occur on the same day.

Well, I am sure much more information will come out his week. D@mn that EPMB for keeping so many secrets. Anyway, the vote thread will be up soon. So go pick your favorite. Don't forget to participate in the SurvivorBlows Spoiler Island Game. I hope this post is helpful and spurs on some good discussion that will solidify our discussion for this week. Good spoiling to all!

SOTS is provided by SurvivorBlows.com as a service to our readers. The purpose of this post is to consolidate the threads in the Spoiler Forum pertaining to this week's episode. Feel free to reply to this post if you feel that a theory you support was not adequately represented in this message... Please use this thread for unified discussion of all topics as we approach the next episode.


Beware the Bear! An IceCat Original, © 2002

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"Excellent Job!!!"
Posted by sleeeve on 09-16-02 at 07:25 PM
...and a HUGE help for someone that was not here for the last three weeks... apparently I have a lot of reading to catch up on, but at least I know where to start

For the record, I'm leaning toward a Robb boot... something about the spoiled rich kid won't sit well with the tribe... Now if we can figure out which tribe will lose the first IC!!!


You never know what might be up my sleeeve...
"Great work SurvivaBear!"
Posted by Rain Crow on 09-16-02 at 08:13 PM
Hope I do as well on Episode 4.


"Onward Thru the Fog"

"Schweeeeeeet!"
Posted by IceCat on 09-16-02 at 08:27 PM
Nicely done, Bear!



OUTSPOIL! OUTSPOOF! OUTRAGEOUS!

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by katem on 09-16-02 at 09:41 PM
Beautifully done. I doubt anyone could have done better. Great, great job, this really helps


(c) 2002 IceCat Originals, Inc. All rights reserved.

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by TechNoir on 09-16-02 at 11:19 PM
Wow, what a stunning example of SOTS. Great job and thanks.



"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by Naked on 09-17-02 at 02:49 AM
Thanks to the bear...


Excellent SOTTS thread. I need to catch up on a little reading as well. I hate to say it, but it looks like MB has us duped for the opener. We usually have a pretty good idea who boot 1 will be by this time because of press day footage on day 4.

This weeks boot pick for me might be nothing more than guess work. I'm leaning toward John at this time though.

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by SherpaDave on 09-17-02 at 03:51 AM
Great work, Bear. Now I at least know some names to consider when voting this week. Speaking of which, the vote thread should be up around 5 or 6pm EDT Tuesday.


Criminals From the Neck Up

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by VerucaSalt on 09-17-02 at 07:43 AM
Awesome job; very thorough!!

I'm basing my pick for first boot on the torch picture, GDiva's posts, and who each survivor seems to be "mixing" with.

I think Red loses first IC and I'm still going back and forth between Ghaandia and John as first to go

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 09-17-02 at 08:19 AM
This is a great job, Bear! Well thought out and planned, and you've made it much easier for me to get caught up on my reading/spoiling and given me some leads to figure out who might get the boot. I still don't have an idea whom I'm going to pick as the bootee, but you've helped narrow it down for me.

.....

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by idiotcowboy on 09-17-02 at 09:26 AM
Nice work SurvivaBear!

Thanks for the valuable resource

-ICB

"Lack of Photos Spoilers"
Posted by Wacko Jacko on 09-17-02 at 11:13 AM
Let's keep in mind all the talk about lack of photos during Survivor 4. There were no Robert, Paschal or Zoe photos. They all made it far in the game. I am saying this because of all the people jumping on the John boot.

I personally lean towards helen because of many things. Her Bio, her clip on the MTV special ("I say what I want"), and have you ever noticed she is always by herself in the clips. She also fits the Debb, Diane mold. Even the kathy mode. Now I know Kathy made it far but she was marked from the beginning. it was a very tough road for her. Helen will not be as lucky.

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by Bebo on 09-17-02 at 12:46 PM
Applause! WOOHOO! This is a terrific SOTS. Thanks so much.

And I love this year's SOTS logo.


Evil, rude, snotty, and proud of it!

"Way To Go"
Posted by samboohoo on 09-17-02 at 04:42 PM
Excellent SOTS Bear. I think this is probably the hardest one to do because of all of the information, and although we've seen a lot, we really haven't seen much. To be honest, I was getting very frustrated reading the threads because they're so darn big.

Can't wait for the polls to open. I'm leaning toward a Ghandia boot too. I just don't see them putting up with such a negative person, whereas John may be more of a calming person.

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by George Tirebiter on 09-17-02 at 06:57 PM
OMG--you have certainly set The Standard of SOTS Excellence! (LOL--you even got the beloved Spoiler Forum Guidelines in there for us anal types!)

I think I can speak for our busy-IRL OFG, as far as the so-called OFG Theory goes. . . I think that for whatever reason, its effectiveness was already waning last season, and Burn-it will have a whole new crop of crapola to try to confoozle us this time around. I do have high hopes for her Astro ANAL-ysis to continue to give us inciteful resource, however! (Whenever you finally get settled into Paradise, dear girl. )

Really glad I'm not a beer-drinker, Bear--I think your new sig would have me desperate to find some o' that vintage Hamm's every time I see you post! (Yeah, that dates me--so what?!)

GT
Hail Eris! All hail Discordia!

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by survivormitsx on 09-17-02 at 08:54 PM
Excellent work SurvivaBear! Now im nervous because seriously i will NOT be able to do as good as you did, so i'm warning everyone now that i'll try my hardest...but know that i'll do my best.



If your happy and you know it, Do the Cooper dance!!

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by GeorgiaBelle on 09-18-02 at 08:05 AM
Great work. You have done an excellent job.

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by smiley on 09-18-02 at 01:57 PM
Great summary survivor bear....I am really stumped at who is going first. Its gonna be interesting!

"Erin Update...Repost from "What We've Got For EP 1" thread"
Posted by mistofleas on 09-19-02 at 00:03 AM
LAST EDITED ON 09-19-02 AT 00:34 AM (EST)

I honestly wasn't sure where to put this. Rain Crow suggested SOTS but since this has lots of spoiler stuff too, I'm going to be redundant and post this same post on both threads.
Rain Crow and I did some recon tonight and got some Erin information. I can tell you several things:

1) A "source" (who doesn't know he's a source and that's all I can say at this point) says that co-workers and friends are throwing a Survivor 5 party for Erin on Thursday night for the first episode. Her close friends and co-workers will be there to watch the first episode with her (we're assuming her home but don't know that for sure) on Thursday night. She's not going to be at work but several of her co-workers are scheduled and will have to run to the bar as soon as the show is over.

2) Erin is "scheduled" to be at work on Friday night. Rain Crown and I were told that she'll be in at 10:00pm. (I have several reasons to believe this is true, I'm asking you just to trust me on this one)

3) Our "source" (gods, don't you just hate the overuse of "bunny ears"?!) told us that he hasn't watched much of Survivor so he doesn't know what it takes to "win the game" but that Erin is a terrific and sweet person who get's along with everyone.

4) Our "source" says that Erin has mentioned several people with whom she keeps in contact but at that moment he couldn't recall the names. (We'll work on that but we must move carefully with this one)

5) Rain Crow and I will be at the Aquarium Bar at 10:00pm on Friday night to make "contact" with Erin.

So...what does this mean? Well, from what I've seen in the threads posted already and granted I haven't been around for several weeks due to a the death of a close friend but, few think Erin will go this week anyway. Since she'll be at a party Thursday night and at work on Friday night we now know for sure, she's not the first boot. Second, each week, Rain Crow and I plan on trying to determine if Erin will be at work on either Thursday or Friday, which would let us know if she's going to be in New York for the Early Show or not.

I hope this gives some helpful information. Rain Crow will be posting his observations in the morning (he's an old fogie and has to go to bed sooner than this whipper snapper. *pfffttt*).

I'd just like to add one thing. Rain Crow is a way cool guy. A complete gentleman and a great snooping companion. I've had a blast meeting him and can't wait for more of our "recon missions".



--hopes she'll be forgiven for her "OT" overtones but old habits are hard to break

"Important! The First Bootee is missing..."
Posted by Rain Crow on 09-19-02 at 10:42 AM
from this photo of the lotus flower challenge.

we know this now based on the recent Early Show, which revealed the first IC to be the boat race around the island, not the lotus flower challenge. The lotus flower challenge is probably the second IC or even the third, which also appears to show the Immunity Idol on top of the box in this photo:

We now need to more accurately identify the people in the photo. I tried to do so on another thread, but a couple of those were pretty speculative. Let's try to get a good ID on everyone. Here is my revised "best guess" list to start with.

Erin-right front in brown bikini
Ken-black shirt to Erin's right
Robb-long black shorts, to Erin's left (with someone's arm on his shoulders?)
Penny-short legs, very white, behind Erin (?)
Jed-blue shirt with cape center front
Jiffy Probe-light blue shirt white shorts dark hair in center
Tanya-lower left with shirt tied around waist
Steph-left of Tanya with long legs
Ted-tall black dude upper left
Helen-dark hair high forehead left of Ted
Brian-behind Ted with lots of hair
Ghandia-to right of Brian with dark face and dreadlocks
Clay-tan hat looks like the color of his

Not specifically identified in the cluster of legs, arms, etc. between Robb and Ken are???:

John-white hat with dark hair above Erin
Shii-ann
Jan
Jake (could be hidden behind Erin - his arm on Robb's shoulders?)

At least one of these four is missing. Put on your thinking caps!


"Onward Thru the Fog"

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by SurvivaBear on 09-19-02 at 12:30 PM
I know you are not supposed to bump your own thread, but I think this is significant. There are a few vidclip thresds showing the first challenge, including The Early Show - September 19, 2002 and Episode 1 Challenge "The Early Show" vidcaps (for those with lower bandwidth). I disagree with RainCrow about Jiffy's shirt color. I think these two pictures show that he is wearing the same shirt at the boat race and lotus platform challenges.

If Jiffy only wears the blue shirt the first day, are these challenges together? Is the lotus platform the "mental" part of the challenge? What are folks thoughts?



Beware the Bear! An IceCat Original, © 2002

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by lroy on 09-19-02 at 02:29 PM
Excellent SOTS SurvivaBear!

Didn't want to start a new thread, but ACME has posted their pick...

http://www.acmebraintrust.com/abt_f.php?kw=week1


This is only a guess...

"RE: State of the Spoiling - Survivor V, Episode 1"
Posted by yow on 09-19-02 at 02:59 PM
Hey all. Sorry if this is posted else where, but this looked like the right place for it. Hope it helps.


Among the sneak preview footage provided by TV Guide Channel, a group of torches were visible at a camp. Close inspection of the rocks in the background from various angles in the promotional videos places this almost certainly near a cave where the red tribe, or Chuay Gahn, is located.

This is significant because the castaways do not receive their torches until they've attended the first tribal council. That clip must therefore be from post Episode 1.

John Raymond is a prime candidate for the first booted in Chuay Gahn. Here are just some of the reasons:

Torches appear to be located at John's tribe Chuay Gahn post E1.
There are not many promotional photos or video clips of John interacting with other tribe mates. He appears to be out of his element socially, and perhaps a bit down.
After the cast was officially announced by CBS, Pastor John wore his Survivor buff before the congregation at his Church. Survivor promotional videos were also played, and the service was covered by the local media. This may demonstrate that

1) John was in a hurry to garner some publicity from the series while he still could, and

2) CBS allowed publicity for him from a Survivor-related event to increase the hype.

Despite the fact that John has a large and excited congregation, and local media are eager to cover him, he'll be watching the show alone at home instead of in front of hundreds of adoring fans.

"Diane"
Posted by dabo on 09-19-02 at 03:26 PM
Nowhere else to put this, probably doesn't deserve a thread of its own. Diane Ogden (Survivor: Africa) is making picks over at SurvivorFever.

http://www.survivorfever.net/pred_diane.html

ARRRRRRR!!!!