Updated from my post earlier this week. My thoughts on the Top 24 before any live performances...

Aaron Kelly: Honestly, i'm not sure about this guy. He seems very very inconsistent and that is probably an age thing. He has a powerful voice for just 16, but I don't get the impression that he has the personality or likability factor of a David Archuleta?

Casey James: LOVE this guy. He definately has the chops and reminds me of Bo Bice big time. I think this guy could be a surprise to many and go very far.

Didi Benami: Another BIG favorite of mine. This girl can SANG. Her only drawback - she has to curb the emotions and control the tears. That has proven to work agaist people in the past. If she gets her confidence, she is another strong contender.

Katelyn Epperly: No real thoughts on her. I don't remember her audition, and her vocals are nothing exceptional. I was surprised she made it through, to be honest.

Lee Dewyze: Similar to Didi, he has the chops, just need to get the confidence factor up. Simon was right on last night. I like this guy, we'll see.

Michael Lynche: Who honestly can say they don't like Michael? This guy is pretty amazing, but in a completely different way to Casey and Didi.

Todrick Hall: I want to hear opinions on Todrick because he just rubs me the wrong way. Huge ego, over the top, I just don't get it. I'm not a fan at this point.

Alex Lambert: We've seen way too little of this guy. I have no thoughts on him so far.

Andrew Garcia: Initially, loved this guy, but to me he has a problem of either being AMAZING or incredibly boring. Is this inconsistency? Or what?

Ashley Rodriguez: Is this our 'token belter' for the season? No idea at this point.

Crystal Bowersox: LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE HER!!!! If you've read my posts in the past, i love woman singers with a gravelly/smoky edge to their voices. Add this in with her being a retro/throwback rocker...love her!

Haeley Vaughn: Incredible potential, but she seems to also be "amazing" or "boring". Needs more consistency.

Janell Wheeler: Not sure how she made it through. Place no bets on her.

Jermaine Sellers: We've seen great performances from him, but very little. No thoughts right now.

Joe Munoz: Who?

John Park: Who? Besides the audition, nothing.

Katie Stevens: Besides a touching backstory, have we heard much from her? She has a good voice, but will she struggle with the different genres?

Lacey Brown: Love her too. She has amazing pipes, plus i love her jazzy side.

Lily Scott: Like Lacey and Crystal, I love the throwback vibe from her too. I have a feeling Lilly can do pretty much anything from jazz, to rock, to pop. Keep an eye on her.

Michelle Delamor: Who?

Paige Miles: Who?

Siobhan Magnus: Another potentially strong girl, although we've seen less of her than the others.

Tim Urban: WHo?

Tyler Grady: This kid has potential, but is he serious? Seems like a 'surfer dude' to me, but we haven't seen much from him. I like the throwback/retro rocker vibe though.

Those are the top 24. Wow, just re-read my post. It is a very strong female year, and I like all the diversity, adn the fact that we have a lot of retro/throwback vocalists this season. This could be a lot of fun, and if i were to make a wager, I would place a little cash on a female winning this year.

For what its worth:

My Top 3 Girls: Crystal, Lilly, Didi
My Top 3 Guys: Casey, Andrew, Michael

geekboy

"I think what Randy Travis was trying to say was 'What the hell was that?!'" - S. Cowell

• RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,zazzy, 12:25 PM, 02-18-10
  • RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,geekboy, 02:29 PM, 02-18-10
    • RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,Belle Book, 07:54 PM, 02-18-10
• RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,nailbone, 12:48 PM, 02-18-10
• RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,Estee, 01:12 PM, 02-18-10
• RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,TanNymph, 02:11 PM, 02-18-10
• RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,2timechamp, 03:26 AM, 02-19-10
• RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,zazzy, 08:38 PM, 02-22-10
  • RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,geekboy, 08:59 PM, 02-22-10
    • RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,zazzy, 09:27 PM, 02-22-10
• RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,Corvis, 00:23 AM, 02-23-10
• RE: Thoughts on the Top 24,zazzy, 08:54 AM, 02-23-10

LAST EDITED ON 02-18-10 AT 12:25 PM (EST)

Janell Wheeler: "Not sure how she made it through. Place no bets on her."

--She has the most pages of any top 24 by far in her fan thread on idolforums. I'm wondering if she is going to be the "growth story"...struggling at first but hey, they gave her a shot and look how she grew. Shrug. Don't know yet but unless she blows it this week I think she'll be around for a bit.

"Alex Lambert: We've seen way too little of this guy. I have no thoughts on him so far.
Joe Munoz: Who?
John Park: Who? Besides the audition, nothing.
Michelle Delamor: Who?
Paige Miles: Who?
Siobhan Magnus: Another potentially strong girl, although we've seen less of her than the others.
Tim Urban: WHo?"

--Do you believe in pimping now? ;)

"For what its worth:
My Top 3 Girls: Crystal, Lilly, Didi
My Top 3 Guys: Casey, Andrew, Michael"

--which girl do you peg as the winner?

Zazzy -

I never said pimping didn't exist. Its obvious it does. What I do dispute is that it has any real tangible effect on the voting. I don't think it effects America's decisions at all.

Kris Allen was never pimped. Taylor Hicks was never pimped.

geekboy

"I think what Randy Travis was trying to say was 'What the hell was that?!'" - S. Cowell

Yeah. In fact, a lot of the winners hadn't been pimped up a whole lot early on. Besides Kris (obviously) and Taylor (less obviously), there was David Cook, Jordin, and even Kelly in the first season. That gives me hope for people like Ashley -- if she can knock some songs out of the park, she'll be just fine.

Tim Urban: WHo?

He's the replacement for that kid with the really curly blonde hair named Chris...who has evidently been DQ'd for some old expired contract that he had with somebody, and neglected to tell the AI people about.

Continued (and partially pasted) from the last thread.

On Todrick: VFTW broke a story which connects him to a child actor/parent-baiting scam -- so if you're getting con artist vibes off him, there just might be a very good reason for that. And even without that, he comes across as trying to be so slick, criticism just slides off to either side. A self-manufactured character -- there may be something under the surface, but you're probably better off not finding out what it is.

Michael's a mortal lock to go Top Twelve and probably makes the tour. Who doesn't hug the teddy bear?

Lee and Katelyn both came off as colorless. In fact, the only thing I remember about Katelyn is that her last name sounds like a medical procedure.

I think Didi will go out early.

Aaron... not sure. He needs that tween fanbase, and it's hard to spot just who else might move into his corner if they don't. He's shy enough and 'safe' enough, but he's no lock to get the screamers.

Casey annoys me, but it's not his fault. The frustration with him comes entirely from Kara, and all the show has to do is lock her in a tank of ice water every time he steps onto the stage. (Leaving her here is not a problem.) Possible Top Twelve, but a Kara-backlash might do him in before his singing does.
----------------------------------------------------------------
And last night's entries:

Alex Lambert: Will probably get at least a dozen votes because the stupider end of the viewership will say 'Oh, is that guy on again?' and hit the autodial button.

Andrew Garcia: His designated story is already starting to backlash, and there's some nasty tales circulating about his own behavior. If any of them are true, he's lost me -- and others will follow. It just won't be enough to take him about before the tour hits.

Ashley Rodriguez: VFTW believes she's the early favorite. We'll see...

Crystal Bowersox: I think she's almost an all-or-nothing performer: she kills the song or the song kills her. One week could break her.

Haeley Vaughn: Has to mature in a hurry, but has a Disney Channel career on standby.

Janell Wheeler: And at the last moment, they realized they were one blonde short.

Jermaine Sellers: At least his wardrobe is interesting.

Joe Munoz: Don't unpack.

John Park: Male of Asian descent=virtually no screen time=yet another show victim=again. That's not a dog whistle, that's an alarm siren.

Katie Stevens: I could become sick of her very quickly. I'm supposed to feel guilty about that. It won't happen.

Lacey Brown: I kind of have to like her hair. Decent voice, but I don't know how much crossover power she has.

Lily Scott: For some reason, I think she's going to wind up as a VFTW pick at some point -- and possibly soon.

Michelle Delamor: 'I am here to fill out an elimination slot, which means I can never try for this show again. They only explained that to me five minutes ago.'

Paige Miles: Meh.

Siobhan Magnus: The greatest name of the year.

Tim Urban: The winner of this preseason's anti-pimp award through no fault of his own -- which means he makes a very strong first impression or a very final only one.

Tyler Grady: He'll have to make me care.

Aaron Kelly: I think he'll get the teeny boppers. Hope he is not another chicken little.

Casey James: Got the looks for sure and so far I really like his voice.

Didi Benami: Like her singing, I'm afraid I'll get tired of the crying pretty quick.

Katelyn Epperly: She is very cute, but not sure about he singing.

Lee Dewyze: Could be this years sleeper, not enough to go on.

Michael Lynche: Very likable. He had some good & some just ok moments.

Todrick Hall: Not a fan, kinda creeps me out also.

Alex Lambert: Can't remember him. Did he sing yet?

Andrew Garcia: Loved the straight up cover. If he keeps that up, he could be another Kris or David Cook. They were both good with changing the arrangments.

Ashley Rodriguez: She is gorgeous but I don't remember her singing very much.

Crystal Bowersox: Really like this girl! Early favorite.

Haeley Vaughn: My opinion is not fair to her I suppose because I thought the other girl was better. She is hard to look at, something about her teeth.

Janell Wheeler: Probably fodder.

Jermaine Sellers: Nothing special

Joe Munoz: Who?

John Park: Who? Besides the audition, nothing.

Katie Stevens: Probably fodder

Lacey Brown: Like her. Good for her coming back again. Hope she does well.

Lily Scott: Really like her. Different.

Michelle Delamor: Who? Pretty girl, though.

Paige Miles: Who?

Siobhan Magnus: What little we saw of her was good.

Tim Urban: WHo?

Tyler Grady: I really like this guy. Not much to go on as far as the singing but he is just cool. I hope he is as good as Bo.

My favorites: Casey, Tyler, Lilly, Crystal, Lacey

A Capn2Patch original

I definatly agree with ur top 3 guys and girls. Dont know anything about Joe Munoz so he just might be a surprise upset. I think Andrew will be our next American idol with Crystal the runner up. Cant stand the Todrick guy too cocky to early.

Trying to id the top 12 before we hear the top 24 sing. This is just from PR from People, TV Guide, the Hollywood week, etc.

Girls
1 Katie
2 Ashley
3 Crystal
4 Janell
5 Didi (or Lilly if Didi doesn't make it)
6 Haeley (or Paige if Haeley doesn't make it)

Guys
1 Casey
2 Big Mike
3 Lee
4 Andrew
5 Tyler
6 Aaron (or Tim if Aaron doesn't make it)

So those who I think won't make it to top 12/ are fodder:

Katelyn
Michelle
Lacey - this one is a ? for me
Sioban

Jon
Joe
Todrick (wasn't initially fodder but now his story's out)
Alex
Jermaine

Your guys sound OK at this point, but I would have to disagree on your girls. Lacey has an amazing voice and is more experienced than a lot of the girls. I'd switch out Lacey and Sioban w/ Janell and Katie.

not sure why Janell has so many fans on this board....

geekboy

"I think what Randy Travis was trying to say was 'What the hell was that?!'" - S. Cowell

I didn't check out Lacey's stuff, so that's why she's a ? for me.

Janell...and Katie... watch their auditions...and watch the plastic expressions on the judges' faces. Those expressions say to me "this is one of the ones that we want to do really well in the comp but we can't overplay our cards yet. So stay cool and don't give away toooo much." Kara is succinct in her comments with them, too.

I didn't rewatch most of them , though, just want to wait for the performances at this point.

My picks for who will make it to the Top 12:

Boys:
Andrew - most confident in this pick
Casey - he'll fly through
Michael - it would take a colossal failure for him to not make it
Tyler - this is probably a crazy pick, but I think he'll show something unique
Lee - gut feeling
Tim - they need a young cute boy and he's the one who'll get that spot because Alex lacks personality and Aaron doesn't have the chops

Girls:
Crystal
Ashley
Didi
Lacey
Janell
Katie

I don't have much to say about the girls. I know this is supposed to be a really strong group of girls, but only Crystal and Didi really interest me.

From Cooky Monzta on idolforums.com:

"Ladies and gentlemen: As of 12:00 A.M., E.S.T., Tuesday, February 23, I have acquired the odds on the 24 contenders selected to perform in the qualifying rounds. The odds come from the following 6 sites:

Bet365 (www.bet365.com)
BoyleSports (www.boylesports.com)
BetFred (www.betfred.com)
Paddy Power (www.paddypower.com)
William Hill (www.williamhill.com)
BetFair (www.betfair.com)

The odds were presented by OddsChecker (www.oddschecker.com), and are frequently updated; but what I present are the combined preliminary odds before the beginning of this phase of the competition:

1. Andrew García 4.049
2. Didi Benami 8.259
3. Crystal Bowersox 9.263
4. Katie Stevens 9.708
5. Ashley Rodríguez 9.868
6. Janell Wheeler 10.627
7. Casey James 14.752
8. Jermaine Sellers 15.829
9. Lacey Brown 18.586
10. Todrick Hall 19.219
11. Haeley Vaughan 19.519
12. Tyler Grady 23.208

13. Siobhan Magnus 25.86
14. Tim Urban 27.927
15. Katelyn Epperly 30.326
16. Alexander Lambert 32.109
17. Lilly Scott 33.594
18. Paige Miles 36.332
19. Michael Lynche 37.516
20. Lee DeWyze 42.305
21. Michelle Delamor 42.866
22. Aaron Kelly 44.144
23. John Park 52.541
24. Joe Muñoz 60.365

Among the top 12 listed here are 7 women and 5 men. Obviously one of the 7 will be the odd woman out when they narrow the roster to 12 for the main competition, and according to the odds Haeley is on the bubble.

Top 6 Women:
2. Didi Benami 8.259
3. Crystal Bowersox 9.263
4. Katie Stevens 9.708
5. Ashley Rodríguez 9.868
6. Janell Wheeler 10.627
9. Lacey Brown 18.586

Last year, when the final 13 (5 women and 8 men) were announced, 4 of the top 6 women on the boards fell by the wayside, and one (Jasmine Murray) had to sing in the wild-card round.

Top 6 Men:
1. Andrew García 4.049
7. Casey James 14.752
8. Jermaine Sellers 15.829
10. Todrick Hall 19.219
12. Tyler Grady 23.208
14. Tim Urban 27.927

Last year, only one of the top 6 men fell by the wayside, and one (Matt Giraud) had to sing in the wild-card round."

And how did Kris Allen fare last year before things started?

"Among the 36 selected for qualifying, Kris was number 29. He was 16th among the 18 males. When the final 13 were assembled, he was number 11."

and then Cooky made the following observation:

"Last year's format contributed to the demise of so many early top contenders. The last time they utilized this format (12 women, 12 men, 2 female and 2 male eliminations per round), only 2 of the top 6 women and 2 of the top 6 men were gone when the final 12 were in place.

Remember: Unlike last year, when the contenders who automatically qualified for the final 13 sang only one song, we are back to the format used in 2005-08, where everyone who wants to make the final 12 (6 women and 6 men) will once again have to sing 3 songs to get there."