LAST EDITED ON 05-15-02 AT 12:07 PM (EST)

And anyone who doesn't accept this spoiler as an airtight fact is an idiot, plain and simple with no exceptions.

Yes, but how do you REALLY feel about that, shakes?

But seriously, along with the pic of Kathy going to TC without a backpack (and what IMHO was the necklace around her neck), the spoiling community is already rapidly coming to this conclusion. So the question is: Who WILL be targeted. Neleh? (Outfrontgirl's last voting message still hold strong for this week)

"Pappy, you smuggled! I'm so proud of you!" -- Neleh Dennis

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

Yea... but it doesn't tell me why they have proven that Kathy makes the final four. It just says "SNN has learned that Kathy makes the final four."

I clicked around and it doesn't give any explanations on how they came up with that. The only explanations I've seen to date is from our posters here on this board.

Thx for a great year.

LAST EDITED ON 05-14-02 AT 07:30 AM (EST)

I have picked Kathy in my PTTE, but.........

This is all a little too suspicious for my taste. The Surviving update to the professionally produced Kathy O'Brien web site strikes me as more MFMB than EPMB. Note the prominent credit to CBS.com. Note also that the update was made within hours of the site becoming a prime topic on this board and probably others. In fact, I'll bet the Snewser pick is based on the site update.
I'm tempted to vote Kathy this week to get the boot. This looks like misdirection aimed clearly at the Internet spoiling community.

In
>fact, I'll bet the Snewser
>pick is based on the
>site update.
>I'm tempted to vote Kathy this
>week to get the boot.
> This looks like misdirection
>aimed clearly at the Internet
>spoiling community.

...like I said, I.D.I.O.T

Plain and simple, when Snewser says something is DEFINITELY going to happen it isn't based on spoiling, its based on inside info that he has picked up. He has made exactly TWO definitive statements this season, one being that Sean would be alive and kicking into the second week of December which has already proven true, and now this announcement about Kathy which will also prove to be true without a doubt.

Anybody who would dare question the validity of Snewser's spoiler or source is a complete moron and has either not been paying attention this season or is just a moron who probably has doubts when offered up the hypothesis that 2 + 2 = 4.

Let me just back Shakes baby up here. If Snewser says it, you gotta believe it. I have had my personal little tiffs with Snewser (on a different MB) but when it comes to the spoiler stuff, I put personal feelings aside and bow to him. He's got inside info...he disseminates discreetly. You don't have to trust me, but really TRUST Snewswer.

In conclusion, while I wouldn't go as far as Shakes and say people who don't believe Snewser are Idiots or Morons, I would say you'll discover that hindsight is 20/20.

mistofleas --making the world a little more itchy

>Plain and simple, when Snewser says
>something is DEFINITELY going to
>happen it isn't based on
>spoiling, its based on inside
>info that he has picked
>up. He has made
>exactly TWO definitive statements this
>season, one being that Sean
>would be alive and kicking
>into the second week of
>December which has already proven
>true, and now this announcement
>about Kathy which will also
>prove to be true without
>a doubt.
>
>Anybody who would dare question the
>validity of Snewser's spoiler or
>source is a complete moron
>and has either not been
>paying attention this season or
>is just a moron who
>probably has doubts when offered
>up the hypothesis that 2
>+ 2 = 4.

I'm not questioning the accuracy of the info, as I've commented above, I think this is about an obvious "prediction" as anyone could make (I'm much more intrugued by the Vee-in-the-Final-4 statement) but I think you're a crappy lawyer if this is the type of logic you employ in the courtroom.

He's made 2 predictions all season. Because the first one was correct, you are now assuming he is never wrong??? That's just dumb logic -- once someone is right once, they can never be wrong??? Come on... who's to even say they are from the same source? ...and if they aren't, then you assume because the info from Source A was 100% accurate then the info from any other Source is also 100% accurate?

...geez, if you want blind "sources," you should look at my inbox on the daily basis -- even a broken clock is right twice a day.

-SB

>He's made 2 predictions all season.
> Because the first one
>was correct, you are now
>assuming he is never wrong???
> That's just dumb logic
>-- once someone is right
>once, they can never be
>wrong??? Come on... who's
>to even say they are
>from the same source?
>...and if they aren't, then
>you assume because the info
>from Source A was 100%
>accurate then the info from
>any other Source is also
>100% accurate?

...webby, I would expect you of all people to get the point. The point is not that he has gotten two previous predictions correct (sean on the show, and sean makes it to Dec 12), the point is that one of if not the most respected member of the internet Survivor community has come out and said that X is going to happen. Snewser has a perfect reputation when it comes to providing spoiling info since S2. He has such a solid reputation that it is completely unnecesary for him to list a source, just the fact that he says he has a source and that X is going to happen is more than good enough for me and it should be good enough for you as well.

As an analogy, imagine that AyaK came forward and said that he had an airtight source he couldn't reveal and that so and so was going to be voted out, or make it far in the game etc. We wouldn't be doubting him and asking for a source, we would trust his ability to determine what is bullsh!t and what isn't and be more than happy to follow him blindly if he vouched for his source. The reason is becaue AyaK is that respected in the SB spoiling community....the same easily applies to Snewser.

>
>...geez, if you want blind "sources,"
>you should look at my
>inbox on the daily basis

...to classify Snewswer's info as coming from a blind source and thereby grouped into the same category as the Unclecameramen, LukeDuke, and first time posters who just happened to stumble onto the site with spoiler info is just plain ignorant.

LAST EDITED ON 05-14-02 AT 10:39 AM (EST)

Hey Pepe!
If you go to the site there's a thread titled MESSY media or some such thing. On the last few pages of the thread, there's vid caps of the walk to TC, and in them it appears that Kathy does not have her back pack, and also she appears to be wearing the IN. In addition to the text that appears when you click on the link, I think that was what Dawg's the above post was referring to. Hope this helps!

Edited to correct misuse of term "several", and also to thank Shakes for bringing this update to everyone's attention.

Thanks, bubba! I didn't have a lot of time this morning and saw a whole lot of links -- clicked on a few that seemed most obvious to me but not ALL of them... would have been nice if there was a direct link from that quote by Snewser to where the explanation for coming up with it, that's all.

For the record, I am very well aware of Snewser's great reputation as a spoiler and know not to question his sources ... I just wanted to know on what he based his spoiler on, that's all.

If Snewser says so... then I'm going to bet on it!

Thx for a great year.

SNN has updated the site and is now also reporting that Vee makes the final four (same link as shakes printed above).

bumping thread to the top with that important VEE info

Hey, Shakes! Shake what yo' mama gave you! Good find.

Do you know how SN gets their info?

And now since the site says that Vee makes the F4, that would narrow down the boot list to N,P,S (which we already knew).

But 2 down 3 to go and it is only Tuesday!

After reading the Snewser MB, I too agree with Shakes.
Even though kathy's board appears to have some suspect info, as the photos are "courtesy of CBS.com" anyone reading her message regarding 39 days without a mirror, may or may not get a subtle hint. There can be several interepretations as stated in other threads, although IMHO, it is a true spoiler, that she at least makes the F2.
With the new info that Vee makes the F4, logic would dictate that at least 3 of the 5 would collaborate to vote out a strong competitor. That competitor would have to be stron in 2 areas:
1) Abilities, both mental and physical to compete in challenges.
2) Likeability by the jury.

For #1, Paschal, Sean and Kathy have the physical; Paschal, Kathy and Neleh have the mental (all joking aside).

For #2, Paschal has the highest likeability by the jury and I'm not sure as to what the true opinion of Neleh is, given the statement by Sean about her, at the last TC. Neither Kathy, Sean or Vee would want to face Paschal or Neleh in an F2, as they would probably lose.

Therefore, either Paschal or Neleh will be booted this week. The big question (probably belonging in another thread) what would be the pros and cons for the the remaining members to vote vote out Paschal or Neleh?

>what would be the pros and cons for the the remaining members to vote vote out Paschal or Neleh?
Perhaps that it would negate any original tribal loyalties? That would pit Kathy--originally Rotu--against two Mara with a rep for laziness and troublemaking and slipping through the cracks. . .

As for the Snewser info, I have to give it the highest reliability, too--and add to Kathy's website "slip" I'm sure she's in it to the end (I don't think it's any accident, because we hear over and over that as soon as the Loozers hit the lodge, they make a beeline for a shower and food--if she says she didn't see herself for 39 days, I have to believe that's exactly what she meant.)

GT

I don't know much about being a millionaire, but I bet I'd be just darling at it. - Dorothy Parker

Ok just to clarify..Vee and Kathy are def. in the final four?..bc if they are..they i dont wanna see anybody voting for them to get the boot tomrrow or thursday!
And i peronally think Neleh is going this week..she has been the target the last few weeks..but this week i bet MB will make it look like K/P/N are together and are going to vote out S/V..but surprise!...in the end Neleh takes that walk of shame

And i peronally think Neleh is
going this week..she has been
the target the last few
weeks..but this week i bet
MB will make it look
like K/P/N are together and
are going to vote out
S/V..but surprise!...in the end Neleh
takes that walk of shame

Honestly, I don't understand all the "Neleh is a target" crap. She's a target because MB has spent a great deal of time focusing on Sean's whining about her "princess" attitude. Her behavior after returning from the reward was annoying, certainly, but she's not despised. In fact, Robert gave her props in his CBS Final Chat.

Neleh's only been a target to this point because MB needed a boot option to distract the audience away from the obvious - the Pagonging of the Rotu 4.

If she is a target now, it's because she'd be considered a threat in F2, Vee is allied with Sean, Paschal wins immunity and Kathy flips.

Neleh's not going anywhere this episode.

Well munson,
Since you think Neleh is not going anywhere then what is your analysis of who is?

We know the the previews that Sean is painted as a target and Neleh is also a target due to the editing. But now Kathy and Vee are off of the boot list and that leaves P,S,N. IMHO Neleh's percentage of being booted out has increased based on this info (33% vs 20%).

Perhaps the best question is to what side is Kathy going to fall? If you can answer that and put some real spoiler evedence behind it other than pure speculation, then you would get my applause.

Girl Power: Three Chicks have never made it to the final four in Survivor before. Until now...

Which would tie back to speculation based earlier that the Final four would either be all women or dominated by women due to the emphasis placed on the Alpha male position in the editing.

Very interesting....

-MC

Hey Munson, this'll make your day. This is snewsers latest.

...if we take Snewser as a credible source, which I do, then which way does Kathy side: with N/P to vote out Sean, or with S/V to vote out Paschal?

Or should we just wait to see if Snewser has any more info?

Hrm .. who would I rather be up against in the final two: the universally adored father figure or the amusing class clown.

Paschal goes.

Of course if want to wait...

60 Pixel Series, No. 2

"Sweetie, if you're not living on the edge, then you're taking up space..." Flo Kennedy

>...if we take Snewser as a
>credible source, which I do,
>then which way does Kathy
>side: with N/P to vote
>out Sean, or with S/V
>to vote out Paschal?

......it seems that all of Snewser's spoiler this season revolve around Sean or someone close to Sean. I think Snewser is just having fun with us and we'll see him confidently state Thursday that Sean is gettting to boot. Remember, Snewser's source has ONLY given him info regarding Sean, so it stands to reason that this latest bit of info would either be that Sean made it to the final four or that Sean was the next person voted out...since he has already been able to state three people who for sure make the final four my bet is that the info he actually got was that Sean gets his walking papers this week.

I wasn't going to post anything until after Snewser did, but I agree completely ... Snewser's posted info has followed a Sean-centric pattern, and he's choosing to have a little fun with us. AND it's now the second week of December in the Marquesas.

Plus, it's the alternative that makes sense for Kathy. Kathy knows that, whomever she pairs with, she only makes the F2 by winning immunity in the F3 challenge. Who would you rather face: strongman Sean and the current IC winner Vee ... or Princess Neleh and Pappy?

It's also consistent with Robert's comments about Kathy not wanting to break her word to Neleh. It now seems clear that, after John wouldn't reassure Neleh that they weren't confined to 5th and 6th, Neleh went to Kathy to cut a better deal for herself and Pappy than they were getting from the Rotu 4. No wonder Paschal is so unconcerned about how to play the game!

I agree with your reasoning Ayak that Sean probably will be the next to go. Kathy has been with Neleh and Pappy since Day 1 (even through the switch) so why would she choose to jump ship now? Also, this whole thing about people turning on Neleh has just been his trick to try to keep us away from finding out that she is in the final 2 or 3. Remember how long MB spent trying to convince us that Lex's alliance of Ethan, Tom, and Kim J. were turning against him? I'm starting to believe Wanda's prediction (from Entertainment Weekly) that Neleh wins. Not that I believe Wanda, I just believe that Neleh atleast makes the final 2 or 3.

>Plus, it's the alternative that makes sense for Kathy. Kathy
>knows that, whomever she pairs with, she only makes the
>F2 by winning immunity in the F3 challenge. Who
>would you rather face: strongman Sean and the current IC
>winner Vee ... or Princess Neleh and Pappy?
>
>It's also consistent with Robert's comments
>about Kathy not wanting to break her word to Neleh.
> It now seems clear that, after John wouldn't reassure
>Neleh that they weren't confined to 5th and 6th, Neleh
>went to Kathy to cut a better deal for herself
>and Pappy than they were getting from the Rotu 4.
> No wonder Paschal is so unconcerned about how to play the game!

You may want to also include in this line of reasoning that, IMHO, the only person to "erupt" at TC would be SEAN. Why else would he erupt unless he or Vee were the target. (I wonder if he erupts after the vote, or before. Either way, it should make for some exciting TV!)

Ok, I have not read a lot of the spoilers this week, I just haven't had as much time lately, but how do we know someone erupts at TC?

You can also add to your line of reasoning that the reason Sean says "Just because Vee and I are African American doesn't necessarily mean we're an alliance" because he knows that Kathy/Neleh/Paschal are going to vote the 2 of them off next.

>Ok, I have not read a
>lot of the spoilers this
>week, I just haven't had
>as much time lately, but
>how do we know someone
>erupts at TC?

Sorry. I should have mentioned that was from the SeeBS previews. The actual quote is, "Tensions arise at an uncomfortable campfire meeting and erupt the next night at Tribal Council."

Of course, with SeeBS I guess "erupt" could mean several things. However, many other clues discussed in this and other threads suggest Sean might erupt emotionally at TC.

Thanks Napalm, although remember the previews that said Don't Miss the Elimination Vote! when Robert was booted 5-1, and You'll never believe who the guest is when it turned out to be Kathy's son Pat?

MB is a lying piece of dog crap. I don't believe anything he says anymore. So I'm totally disregarding the whole erupting thing. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, it probably does, but knowing MB I wouldn't count on it. The man would say anything to get you to watch and that's a fact.

yep, that's my guess too shakes

What could be better than this Pappy?
How about being an old guy with three women...twice?

I'll try this here...to follow up on what AyaK just asked...

What if...as a result of Sean's "erupting" at the campfire and saying that he and Vee *aren't* an "automatic alliance", Vee feels betrayed...switches sides...Sean is voted off at TC by a 4-1 vote...

The road goes on forever and the party never ends - Robert Earl Keen

Vee has shown an ability to flip sides if her side seems to be losing. Nevetheless, I think she has more to lose than to gain by voting against Sean. She cannot think voting out Sean will put her higher on the pecking order--there would only be 4 people left and someone has to go next. Meanwhile, if she makes it to the finals somehow, she has just pissed off her 1 sure vote.

While I don't think this will happen, Vee certainly has been wishy-washy enough that nothing would shock me.

While i don't have the experience or wisdom to say that I trust Survivornews 100%, i can say that I trust shakes, and if he were to make such bold claims, I'm sure he must be pretty convinced too.

I agree that Kathy is safe, but I wonder why MB didn't show us any evidence to make us think she might be the next one booted off. I mean, if she really is safe, then doesn't it seem like MB would try to trick us into thinking that she is the next boot and then we'll all be amazed when she wins immunity? I mean, she could be made into a very convincing target by MB since she's the only one left that's not in a two person alliance.

Anyway, I do agree with you Shakes that Survivor News is right, so don't call me a moron, but I just think that it's fishy that MB isn't making us think Kathy will be the next boot. He's making the Neleh thing too obvious if you ask me. Maybe the surpise will be that it's Sean instead but who knows.

And as far as the website thing goes, I agree that it probably means that Kathy makes the final 2, but who would be stupid enough to put the 39 days thing? I mean, that's a little fishy to me too, but I'll just disregard it.

>http://www.survivornews.net/spoilers/
>
>
>...this should put to rest any
>lingering speculation that S/V/P/N will
>band together and get rid
>of Kathy.

Oh wow, way to go out on a limb and make a prediction.

This just in -- SurvivorBlows has learned that Pappy will never vote for Neleh. We've also learned that NEleh will never vote for Pappy.

-SB

*snickers*
nice one webby! i certainly didn't need snewsits to tell me kathy was safe this week

This from the one site that still bothers to make an "alternate" pick to hedge your bets when there are only 6 people left!

>This from the one site that
>still bothers to make an
>"alternate" pick to hedge your
>bets when there are only
>6 people left!

OK--I hate to do shakes' work for him, he is more than capable of doing it himself, but I am bored today so here it goes. This issue has already been addressed in this thread. However, for your benefit, I will paraphrase and try to clarify.

SNN does not have a perfect record when it come to PREDICTIONS. No one thinks he does. No one is claiming he does. However, what he is, according to those who have followed for some time )like shakes), is reliable when he claims to have sourced material. He stated the information about Kathy (and Vee and Neleh) as fact, not prediction. Thus, he has a source or he would not report it as fact. In the past, when he has stated something as fact from a source, it has been correct.

Further speculation has noted that his source this season seems to be close to Sean, and thus his knowledge about who makes the final 4 is based on his knowledge that Sean goes this episode. If you read the entire thread carefully, you would know all of this--but as life is short and some people don't have time to do this, I hope my summary is helpful.

LAST EDITED ON 05-15-02 AT 07:26 AM (EST)

Shakes, have you heard the LATEST prediction from SNews?

1st: We learn that Kathy makes the final 4.

2nd: We learn that Vee also makes the final 4.

3rd: We learn that Three Chicks Make the Final Four.

*Note: edited because Jancan and Smiley beat me to it {sigh}. Sorry guys.
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