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"The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by geekboy on 05-14-09 at 06:47 AM
So, it has come down to the final two i was hoping for - Kris and Adam.

And once again, we have sort of a 'David & Goliath' battle which i'm sure the producers are excited about. Simon's expression last night was priceless when Kris' name was called.

Last season, the Underdog upset the Chosen One. What will happen this season? Lets collect all our thoughts, musings, rants, ravings, predictions, conspiracy theories all in this thread over the next 6 days.

My first thought - will Kris get ALL of Danny's votes?

geekboy



"I think what Randy Travis was trying to say was 'What the hell was that?!'" - S. Cowell

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by angelworth29 on 05-14-09 at 07:09 AM
Go Kris!! I really do believe that he has a chance. Other Adam haters such as myself will definitely vote for Kris. I have not voted (for American Idol) in years, but the last two weeks I voted 20 times for Kris. If he is motivating ME to vote, I know there are others doing the same thing.

I cheered when they called his name. This will be a fun finale for me!


"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by mhdallas on 05-14-09 at 12:57 PM
And Kris haters like myself might actually have to pick up the phone and vote adamently for Adam (Just joking - I actually planned on voting anyway, not because I think it matters, but just because it seems like the thing to do.)

And, you're right, this will be a fun finale - with half of the show being really great(Adam), and the other half leaving plenty of time for bathroom and/or snack breaks! (Sorry - I guess I'm just feeling a bit snarky right now.)

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by emydi on 05-14-09 at 08:08 AM
I think most of Danny's votes go to Kris which will mean he wins unless Adam's solid fans vote like crazy...they told us Kris/Adam are only 1 million apart...and with 88 million votes, Gokey had to have at least 20 million. So if Kris was in 2nd down a million then at least half of Gokey's fans will vote for Kris (some may just boycott voting) so Kris gets another 10 million votes. Plus I think VFTW will pick Kris bc TPTB want Adam to win so much.
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by geekboy on 05-14-09 at 08:35 AM
A couple of more thoughts from me...

This season is turning out to be a very close copy of last season, and Kris is obviously this year's David Cook. Cookie came out of nowhere last year, like Kris. He kept building steam weak after weak, like Kris. He came out with original arrangements and interpretations, like Kris. He kept building fan base week after week, like Kris.

The one difference, i think, is that Adam's fanbase may be bigger than Archie's at this point. I don't believe Kris has ever topped Adam in any dialidol weekly results, like Cook did a few times last season.

I think Kris would benefit a lot more than Adam by actually winning. Adam will see some level of success no matter if he wins or not, and possibly have more control over his first release if he doesn't win. Kris i think would gain more by winning.

I think song selection could play a major role in the voting results next week. One thing that Kris should consider is the smart move by Cook last season of NOT repeating a performance on the finale. I think it was brilliant on his part, and the first time they let that happen. I always hated having repeats on finale night, so Cook was a breath of fresh air. I think Kris should follow suit.

geekboy


"I think what Randy Travis was trying to say was 'What the hell was that?!'" - S. Cowell

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by sylvester on 05-14-09 at 05:44 PM
I disagree strongly that Kris benefits more by winning. Adam has gotten coverage from mainstream media like I've never seen before on AI, and I think if Kris wins, the story will be Adam lost. (OMG!! WHY?? etc.)

I've also never seen Simon this invested in a contestant. He practially drools over Adam. If Kris wins, Adam is still going to get the lion share of the promo budget and everything else involved in marketing a new 'star'.

I'm really happy with this final 2, first time ever I've liked both the final 2. I like Kris, I love Adam, I'm happy for both and I think America got it right. (other than Allison leaving at 4) But I don't think it's in Kris' best interests to win.

You know part of what fueled Clay's success was the frustration of his superfans, and the determination to see him succeed. Kris needs to come in 2nd here.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Loree on 05-15-09 at 04:20 PM
sylvester I really agree with your post. If Adam loses it will probably only push the media even more in his favour because of the outrage. Kris will be seen as almost unworthy and blamed for Adam not winning. But if Kris comes in 2nd everyone still loves Kris. And his fans will work harder to show he should have won.
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by zazzy on 05-14-09 at 08:38 AM
The casual voter really showed up this week. I would love to see a graph of the votes by contestant over the past 13 weeks because I'm thinking Danny peaked before "Dream On" and the Danny faithful propped him up last week after the screaming but the casual voter turned to Kris.

I also think Danny's awkward answers to Ryan hurt him--like saying he was bored on Wednesday nights. I don't think he was bored last night.

Does anyone know about Danny's family? Adam and Kris had their parents in the audience; what I remember from Danny's family was his sisters and friends. Was that his mom they showed last night?

Anyway, will there be even more casual voters making an impact next week? And did they show Adam with Danny as a way to motivate Adam fans? Likewise telling us one million separates the top 2?

I was glad to see the show itself be somewhat shocked by the result--Ryan, the judges. Kris was finally treated well with the video of his hometown package. I imagine the media is scrambling to reframe their articles this week. I am loving it all because I like both of them and will be happy if either win.

I'm pulling for Kris because his growth on the show is such a great story and an upset of the AI pimpage plans. But Adam is so talented that he'd be a great winner, too.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by zazzy on 05-14-09 at 08:41 AM
P.S. And I love it that Simon has to eat some crow this week because he was on Fox and Friends being mean about Kris and was unkind in the TV Guide article a couple of weeks ago (I've got to find that article and summarize it for the pimp thread!). Now he's forced to acknowledge Kris and America's interest in him. It's more than Arkansas voting.
"Did someone say graphs?"
Posted by Snidget on 05-14-09 at 09:19 AM
First graph is a column chart of the % Busy signals from Dial Idol for Adam, Danny and Kris for the whole season.

Since they were all trending upwards from the second set of 7 idols on to the end I did some trend line projection.

Here is the linear projection that doesn't fit the data that well

So I tried some non-linear projections, none of which was that good, but this one was the best.


"RE: Did someone say graphs?"
Posted by DoodleBug on 05-14-09 at 10:19 AM
Love me some visuals! Thanks, snidge.

I don't think there are many Kris supporters who vote with dialidol. There have been many weeks where dialidol had him a lot lower than the show - some weeks in danger of being in the bottom 3 and he wasn't. That could have been just TPTB messing with us, but I think there are a lot of old fashioned voters out there dialing manually for Kris - and texting. The text vote is the wildcard.

"RE: Did someone say graphs?"
Posted by Snidget on 05-14-09 at 10:31 AM
That is why I didn't pull the vote totals. If anything Danny has even less voters who use dial idol. He just tends to have a high percentage of busy signals. The busy signals give you a feel for who the people that aren't using dial idol are voting.

I'm guessing Kris gets the texting votes, especially since I think he appeals to the tween crowd that would probably text over call.

"RE: Did someone say graphs?"
Posted by angelworth29 on 05-14-09 at 10:50 AM
I consider myself a smart person, a reality tv junkie, and I read these message boards religiously. That being said, I don't know what "using dial idol" means. I thought dial idol was just something that is used to count the busy signals of received. I don't know how I thought that worked, but that is beside the point, lol. I just called and voted for Kris, and got busy signals over and over.


"RE: Did someone say graphs?"
Posted by DoodleBug on 05-14-09 at 10:57 AM
From http://www.dialidol.com/

DialIdol is free & safe software you can use to speed dial votes for your favorite contestants.

DialIdol measures the busy signal to predict who will be voted off.

DialIdol was 97% accurate for season 7 of American Idol.

DialIdol has accurately predicted the winner of every
American Idol season it has covered.

"RE: Did someone say graphs?"
Posted by Snidget on 05-14-09 at 11:16 AM
Dial idol is primarily a way to use your computer's modem to dial the numbers for you.

It does collect data from the users and measure the percentage of busy signals. They then do some math on the busy signals that has to do with when they come in and various other factors to generate a predictive score.

It is not a scientific survey of all the idol's phone numbers. They do not get the same number of calls in for all idols. Some fan bases use dial idol more than others.

Allison's fan base always was big on dial idol. She often had way more votes cast for her through dial idol than other people. However her percentage of all calls made by dial idol that were busy signals was pretty low. So she got a lower score than someone who had many fewer fans using dial idol but the small number of people got huge numbers of busy signals.

The dialidol guy puts a fair amount of the raw data on the site, not just the final number his computer model throws out.

"RE: Did someone say graphs?"
Posted by zazzy on 05-14-09 at 11:07 AM
Thanks, Snidget! I love the data. I'm trying to recall what each of them sang each week so see if the percent busy signals reflect fan affinity for the performance.

And if the busy signals trend the way the total votes do, then I can see how the casual voter surged for all of them but Kris most of all!

"RE: Did someone say graphs?"
Posted by Snidget on 05-14-09 at 11:31 AM
In theory there should be some relationship between how many times you get a busy signal and how many people are voting for someone.

Some of when that becomes significant has changed over the years as they have gone to multiple phone line per idol near the end and seem to have more phone capacity. If nothing else that helps the generate much higher vote totals.

I know back in Season two I don't think I got even one call in for Clay on the last night. Every single time it was busy busy busy. I think that is one reason Ruben vs Clay was so close. Both got a call in almost every single millisecond you could get a phone call in so you really were measuring how many phone calls they could receive more than how many times the phone was dialed.

What I noticed voting in the final three was I think it was the first time I got significant busies the whole voting period. Usually after 15-30 minutes or so there are no more busy signals at all as people who only want to vote 1-20 times have finished.

My guess, more than Kris is the only one the casual viewer likes, is he is the one that is picking up most of the votes as other idols are eliminated. With both Adam and Danny you found a lot of people in other fan groups that really disliked either one or the other or both. It isn't just Danny fans that hate Adam or Adam fans that hate Danny. Both of them tend to be either you like them or you don't kind of singers.

There really isn't any Kris hate out there. You get "he's a bit boring", but you don't get "no way will I ever vote for him" kinds of reactions. I also think he has had a good growth story with how he performs where Danny and Adam are pretty much the same singers we saw from the beginning.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by DoodleBug on 05-14-09 at 10:54 AM
Underdog = expected to lose a contest, at a disadvantage.
Dark Horse = one who achieves unexpected support; a little-known, unexpectedly successful entrant

Kris Allen = under-dark-horse-dog! Pretty much sums up his journey

There have been a lot of odd final two match ups - but this one has got to be the oddest. And by odd I mean the most different musically. They are really on polar opposites - hard rock vs. soft rock. The other odd couple that comes to my mind would be Carrie and Bo.

Adam will need to tone it down if he has any shot of winning - less screaming and more singing. Danny's followers will most likely NOT vote for Adam.

Kris will need to do pretty much exactly what he did on Tuesday to win. An unplugged version of a song with the guitar, a little piano playing, and a lot of heart. He will certainly pick up some Danny votes.

Also, both should not do any repeats - I totally agree with Geekboy that repeating songs is a bad thing - we've already heard/judged/decided your talent on previous songs - bring us something new.

I am VERY excited about this final match up! Both are worthy of winning. Both will have amazing careers after Idol. Both bring something different and are very talented in their own right. It's going to be a Ruben/Clay photo-finish!

(PS I have a hard time with the David Cook comparison because he was my favorite throughout last season and I always knew he would win. But that's just me.... )

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Wiggle on 05-14-09 at 11:03 AM
>
>There have been a lot of
>odd final two match ups
>- but this one has
>got to be the oddest.
> And by odd I
>mean the most different musically.
> They are really on
>polar opposites - hard rock
>vs. soft rock. The
>other odd couple that comes
>to my mind would be
>Carrie and Bo.
>
Jordin and Blake?
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Snidget on 05-14-09 at 11:34 AM
Jordin and Blake are both kind of pop, IMO. Different in their approach but I think the both were more pop than anything else.
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Snidget on 05-14-09 at 11:35 AM
I agree with the no repeats, unless they do a force everyone to do a repeat thing.

The problem is you will be compared to yourself and usually people repeat something they did pretty well, so it is harder to seem better the second time around.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by geekboy on 05-14-09 at 11:59 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-14-09 AT 12:01 PM (EST)

> They are really on polar opposites - hard rock vs. soft rock.

Randy Jackson had a great quote on American Idol Extra. He said this year's finale is My Chemical Romance vs. Jason Mraz.

I thought that was a perfect description.

geekboy


"I think what Randy Travis was trying to say was 'What the hell was that?!'" - S. Cowell
Go Kris!!!

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by DoodleBug on 05-14-09 at 02:22 PM
Oh, I like that! Even coming from Randy.
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by kingfish on 05-14-09 at 12:25 PM
Based on the size of the crowds in their hometowns (Danny and Kris's were huge, Adam's was more modest), one would guess that Kris would win.

That's assuming that Danny's voters will split more or less evenly, and they probably will.

I think Adam will win, though. He didn't have a bad performance all season (actually, it wasn't till the end that Adam had anything but brilliant, superlative performances), and several of Kris's were very poor. And Adam's worst was miles ahead of Kris's best.

That encore by Gokey was terrific.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by mhdallas on 05-14-09 at 12:40 PM
Yeah, but look where Adam went - to a couple of schools, as compared to where Danny went. And as for Kris' turnout...he's definitely got the under 10 vote down - were there any actual adults around? I understand Kris' popularity among children; after all, he looks like one himself (and there's nothing wrong with that, either.)

I don't think anything can be based upon their turnouts - especially since it looks like most of the ones screaming for Kris aren't old enough to even use the phone!

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by zazzy on 05-14-09 at 12:50 PM
I think I read this on Mj's board...that Adam had been slated to have his homecoming in LA but only in the last week did he switch it to San Diego so everything was thrown together at the last minute.

IMO it was about perceptions...and an Adam homecoming in LA may have looked like a Zodiac Show performance or audience, so instead it was scripted to be high school/marching band/cheerleaders, grade school students, and the military. No gay/tranny imagery; instead, American apple pie.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by mhdallas on 05-14-09 at 01:11 PM
Excellent point. Yeah, I can just picture the crowd if he'd gone to L.A. (I would've loved it, but I don't think that's the images AI would want to convey.) I do appreciate the fact that they showed him singing the National Anthem, though, and in a very restrained way, which is what it calls for.
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by nailbone on 05-19-09 at 11:10 AM
He didn't have a bad performance all season

Ring of Fire

"Why go halfway bad when you can go all-the-way crazy?" - RNO


"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by mhdallas on 05-14-09 at 12:31 PM
Well, first off, I wouldn't count on what happened last year happening again this year - the odds are against that (not to mention the producers.) After all, if the finales became predictable, then interest in watching them would wane, and that would affect just too many pocketbooks.

As for Simon being surprised about Kris - well, who wasn't? After all, he wasn't even supposed to have made it this far, much less the final two.

I like the David and Goliath comparison; in this case, it couldn't be more appropriate. I just keep picturing Adam singing something like "Whole Lotta Love", and then Kris doing something low-key like "Heartless" (those are just samples because I also don't want to hear any repeats). The differences couldn't be more obvious.

And I wouldn't count on Danny's votes all going to Kris - only the ones who just flat out don't like Adam will go that way. A lot of people were counting on a Danny/Adam finale, so my guess is that a lot of those Danny fans might vote for Adam by default. (Regardless of the packaging, white bread is just not in a lot of people's diets, you know.)

At this point, it looks like the shocking thing might be if the expected result actually happens - which it very well may. After all, the expected winners just won the Amazing Race - so don't be too surprised if, in fact, the 'expected' winner of Idol is just who it's expected to be. (Not that it matters either way, though, because it's obvious that Simon's all but drooling to get Adam signed pretty quickly anyway).

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by geekboy on 05-14-09 at 01:02 PM
You know, i'm getting sick of everyone saying lately that "who wins doesn't matter anyway". I disagree with that.

Granted, in the long run, no, it doesn't really matter. All three of these guys will be signed, will put out a record and do relatively well...

but what does matter is that America's voice is heard via the voting. That is why it matters. We have millions of people week after week voting, and the end result of that is the crowing of this season's Idol. Does it matter in terms of hearing their music, no, but it matters to the American people who wins.

geekboy


"I think what Randy Travis was trying to say was 'What the hell was that?!'" - S. Cowell

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by mhdallas on 05-14-09 at 01:47 PM
I'm sorry, geekboy - I'm not trying to step on anybody's toes, really I'm not.

The only thing I mean when I say that it doesn't matter who wins is that since they've already achieved the fame part, and will undoubtedly all have recording deals too, then who actually wins the title is almost irrelevant. It's not to diminish the ones who vote, and their voices do need to be heard, but still...at this point, it's basically down to a popularity contest, which is still entertaining, if basically irrelevant.

Don't worry - my time butting in on these boards is rapidly drawing to a close (although SYTYCD is also one of my favorite shows...)

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by geekboy on 05-14-09 at 02:02 PM
And i apologize if my lil rant seemed directed solely at you - it wasn't. Just trying to make my little point but unfortunately I chose your post to reply to!

Your comments here are as welcome as anyone elses! Stick around, its fun!

geekboy


"I think what Randy Travis was trying to say was 'What the hell was that?!'" - S. Cowell

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Snidget on 05-14-09 at 02:04 PM
I think the "doesn't matter" is that a win doesn't mean you are the only one with a music career. It isn't like some of the dating shows where if you don't win you can't have contact with the music industry, or even Idol, ever again.

Who people vote for doesn't always mean that is whose music they will buy. I have more music from also rans than I have from winners. So much depends on what the idol makes of the opportunity. Do they strike while the iron is hot? Can they make music people want to buy or hear on the radio? Are they more than just a singer?

I do think the winner has more initial name recognition among the people that do not closely follow the show, and that always helps.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by DoodleBug on 05-14-09 at 02:39 PM
Titles matter. Their face is on the idol promos the next year, the opening sequence, commercial deals for idol, they all got to sing on Wednesday nights this season and all the other perks that come with "the title".
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Loree on 05-14-09 at 03:25 PM
I think Danny needed the win more than Adam or Kris. Both Adam and Kris outsold Danny on iTunes this season. Danny could have used the bump that winning would have done for him. Both Adam and Kris have already started to develop a following who likes to buy their music.

I still believe it is better to have alot of fans that might only vote a few times every week. Rather than a few rabid fans that vote thousands of times each week. Most people will only buy 1 CD even if they did vote rabidly while their fave was on the show. But the casual fans that only threw a few votes at someone during the season will often buy their CD too.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Ahtumbreez on 05-14-09 at 02:31 PM
GB- I heard the national anthem playing while reading your post. *grin


Mangalicious by The Slice
09/25/2008 Bre left for Iraq
04/29/2009 Bre left Iraq
06/09/2009 Bre gets a hug from Mom

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by DoodleBug on 05-14-09 at 02:57 PM
But was Adam singing it or Kris?
"Okay..."
Posted by Estee on 05-14-09 at 03:12 PM
...but at this point within their voter bases, Kris is the Chosen One and Adam is the underdog.

"RE: Okay..."
Posted by Devious Weasel on 05-14-09 at 04:13 PM
Not sure what you mean by within their voter bases. I would think that a contestant’s voter base always has expectations that the singer they support is the chosen one.

On the other hand, if you mean that looking at how the voting patterns have been throughout the season, Kris should be considered the favorite and Adam the underdog, I’d have to agree. Dial Idol, the only real predictive model we have access to, has consistently underrated Kris’ level of support level and consistently overrated Adam’s level of support. Couple that with the fact that Danny and Adam are such diametric opposites in terms of style that I can’t see many Danny voters switching up to vote for Danny. I’d say the choice for that particular bloc is Kris or not vote.

Other things in Kris’ favor: Adam is also polarizing; Kris isn’t. On a quality basis, they’re pretty much equal. Kris, however, trends to a more popular style than Adam.

That’s not to say that a Kris victory wouldn’t be touted as a huge upset. But it shouldn’t be considered such.

"RE: Okay..."
Posted by Estee on 05-14-09 at 04:32 PM
I was thinking of Kris being a Chosen One in a nearly-religious sense: as you said, there are people who were previously casting for Danny that would not vote for Adam if Jesus showed up and said 'You know, I really like his nail polish.' Those terrified of a (rumored) gay/bisexual winner will unite behind the young married man no matter what it takes -- and with those numbers joining whoever into whatever portion of Danny's less fearful base goes over to Kris, I have to think Adam is a serious underdog in this fight. And I also believe a lot of Adam's voters know it.
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by mtb002 on 05-14-09 at 04:03 PM
This may make me unpopular, but vocally, Kris is the underdog. This doesn't mean I don't like Kris, I do, when I actually like the song he's singing, I enjoy him. But vocally, he may have been the weakest of the top 13. Kris is a perfect example of what being able to play instruments can do for you on idol. And I still can't stand watching him. I like to listen, but I can't look at him. I won't be upset if he wins, but it's because he's such a nice kid, connects to his songs, and Falling Slowly/Ain't no Sunshine were brilliant (Heartless is interesting but certainly no vocal pinnacle). Not because I think he's more talented than Adam, Allison or lord help me, Danny.

BTW-if Kris wins, which I think is actually more likely than not at this point, do you think the producers will bag the instrument playing? Sure they got David Cook, but they also got Kris and Scotty Mac.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by seahorse on 05-14-09 at 09:38 PM
LAST EDITED ON 05-15-09 AT 07:57 AM (EST)

All the producers care about is ratings, they make very little profit from an Idol's future record sales, but they make tons of money from advertising. When people are talking about the contestants or complaining that a superior talent was voted off it tends to drive up future ratings. The producers have to love the finals they have and it should not matter much to them who wins, because the show is the winner when there is controversy.

Although I think Adam is more talented than Kris, I will be surprised if Kris does not win. Kris was very close in votes to Adam this week even though we don't know who was the actual vote leader and Danny's voters will likely vote for Kris by at least a 2 to 1 margin in my opinion. I believe this since the type of music Danny sang was more similar to Kris' music than Adam's.

I hear opinions that Kris is getting the young vote, but I also suspect he is getting quite a lot of the older vote since he is well liked on this forum which I don't think is frequented by teens.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Snidget on 05-15-09 at 07:32 AM
I agree that they are making the money off the ratings for the show. That is much more important than finding the best recording artist.

I think the only reason they occasionally want someone that makes a reasonable amount of success after the show is it keeps people watching so they can charge more for advertising.

"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Devious Weasel on 05-15-09 at 09:49 AM
I think they need to turn out a big star every few years, though. Having a Kelly Clarkson and a Carrie Underwood out there helps build public interest and lessen ratings decline.
"RE: The Underdog vs. The Chosen One - Season II"
Posted by Snidget on 05-15-09 at 10:42 AM
A big star every so often does help keep the ratings up.

Just it seems they aren't that interested in making sure every winner gets the full court press that seems to make anyone whose voice can be autotuned into submission and looks cute into a star for at least a song or two.